Faster than a Speeding Homer...

A Brief Reminder of Bill Belichick's Brilliance

2012-01-15T12:40:00.000-07:00

The Patriots defense has not played particularly well this season. Or for the last couple of seasons, to be perfectly honest. But the strength of a Bill Belichick defense has always been that they take away your greatest strength, essentially daring you to beat them with one hand tied behind your back. Last night, the Patriots D was able to do that to the Broncos, and as good as Tom Brady and Co. were, the play of the defense was why the Patriots so utterly dominated the Broncos.

The Broncos were a running team this season. Overall, they averaged 4.8 yards per carry (6th in the NFL) and 164.5 yards per game on the ground (1st in the NFL by 11.5 yards per game). Last night, the Patriots took away the run. The Broncos only averaged 3.6 yards per carry, and while they did pile up 144 yards, much of that was due to the fact that they refused to abandon the run in the second half.

Stopping the run stops all of the Broncos' offensive momentum, as they seem most effective at throwing the ball when they can utilize play action. With the threat of the run neutralized early, the Patriots were not fooled by the Broncos' play action. This was most notable when Gerard Warren came bursting through the line and went straight for Tebow, wrestling him to the ground before he even had a chance to turn around.

The Patriots put the game out of reach in the final two minutes of the first half, but up until that point Denver still had a chance. But the reason they weren't able to gain much traction is because the Pats forced them to win without their best weapon, and they simply aren't a good enough team to do that.

Sixth Annual End Of Year CDs

2012-01-02T14:56:00.001-07:00

Each year, in a (mostly) vain to stay up to date with the music world, I put together an end-of-year CD set, and give them out to some close friends as Christmas presents (you can see my 2009 and 2010 writeups here). I finally handed out the last one on New Year's Eve, so I figured it was high time to put up this year's list.

As a reminder, nearly all of the songs on the Aboveground mix reached the Billboard Top 100, while the Underground mix are songs that are decidedly the opposite. The only other rule is that the song had to be released commercially during 2011.

Aboveground Mix
1. Adele: Rolling In The Deep
This one was solidified early in the year. I don't really think there was a better candidate for song of the year.
2. DJ Khaled: I'm On One f/ Drake, Lil' Wayne & Rick Ross
One question -- is DJ Khaled still the DJ for the Terror Squad? Ha. The beat here shines the brightest, and that's saying something, as all three rappers turn in excellent verses, particularly Rick Ross. It's funny that Ross pops up here, since I don't care for him at all. But despite his lackluster catalog overall, he finds a way to put up or be a part of one good single every year -- he's managed to find his way onto my collection in five of the six years I've done it. He's like the Michael Young of hip-hop.
3. Coldplay: Paradise
Any song that features people dancing in elephant costumes in its video is a winner in my book.
4. Jay-Z & Kanye West: Ni**s In Paris
I know some people didn't care for Watch The Throne's decadent ways, but I loved it. Of the two most popular singles from the album, this and "Otis," this was the clear choice for me. I actually found "Otis" to be one of the weaker tracks on the album overall, and even liked tracks like "No Church In The Wild" and "Murder To Excellence" better than Paris, but I stuck to my format here, for better or worse.
5. Gym Class Heroes: Stereo Hearts f/ Adam Levine
Feel free to hate on this one, but this track really bangs. I kind of think of Gym Class Heroes as the poor man's and pop man's GZA.
6. Britney Spears: Till The World Ends
The most over-the-top Britney single ever? The world could be collapsing all around you, but hey, as long as we're dancing, it's all good!
7. Bad Meets Evil: Lighters f/ Bruno Mars
I've only been waiting for this reunion since 1999. "Scary Movies" is still one of my favorite tracks of all time.
8. Nicki Minaj: Super Bass
Pink Friday didn't meet my expectations, but this bonus track, which was for some reason not released until this year, is hard to deny. Yes, she uses her voices, which I don't much care for in general, but here, they intertwine nicely. A runner-up for song of the year.
9. Foster The People: Pumped Up Kicks
This song was apparently first written in 2009, but became the little pop song that could only in this year. I relish in songs that have violent themes but catchy little dittys, where you end up merrily singing the chorus without even realizing what you're singing. Good times.
10. Kelly Rowland: Motivation f/ Lil' Wayne
A second song where the beat is the champion, it's always nice to see Kelly Rowland -- who I always felt got unfairly shafted out of further fame and fortune when Beyonce set off on her own -- see some success. The brief cameo from Weezy here gives him three appearances on the mix, the most for the year and tied for the most in any year (Kanye West, 2008; Drake, 2010). I find this amusing, because I really didn't think it was that great of a year for him. But he keeps turning up.
11. Dr. Dre: I Need A Doctor f/ Eminem & Skylar Grey
This is the second straight year where the maddening doctor has released a single for an album that has not yet been released in full, and may never be at all. I didn't like this song when it first came out because I was upset that Nate Dogg didn't get to sing the hook, but that's kind of silly -- Skylar Grey did a good job with the hook.
12. David Guetta: Without You f/ Usher
David Guetta gets the heavy hitters, and I preferred this track to the Nicki Minaj/Flo Rida track. I do have some standards, and not including Flo Rida songs is one of them.
13. Maroon 5: Moves Like Jagger
Of course, my standards aren't that high.
Me: I need to get going on my end-of-year CD's.
Wife: Oh! Are you going to put "Moves With Jagger" on it? I love that song.
Me: Uh.......sure.
14. Lil' Wayne: 6 Foot 7 Foot f/ Cory Gunz
Six foot, seven foot, eight foot, bunch! There wasn't much that stood out on Tha Carter IV -- this and "Outro" was about it.
15. Beyonce Knowles: Countdown
I really enjoyed 4, and might have included the track with Andre 3000 here, but "Countdown" was the standout single.
16. Lady Gaga: You And I
I'm not really concerned with the way in which she was born, especially since that song was more of the same from her. But this was a departure, and while I generally don't care for country music, I thought this was a well-done song, and more still, a brave effort that should be commended. She could have easily churned out 10 "Born This Way's" and still sold a gazillion records, but she didn't. That's refreshing.
17. Drake: Headlines
This album has stirred so many different emotions in me it isn't funny, but the bottom line is that it's an awesome piece of work. I would have preferred "Marvin's Room" here, but the track is simply too long, so "Headlines" it is.
18. Kreayshawn: Gucci Gucci
Between her beef with Rick Ross, and her girl's use of the N word, people may tire of Kreayshawn quickly, but if she ends up a one-hit wonder, it certainly was a memorable hit. "I got the swag and it's pumping out my ovaries" was one of the funniest, if not best, lines of the year.
19. Rihanna: We Found Love
At this point, Rihanna is a legend, and legends are comfortable standing at the back while everyone does their thing, patiently waiting to explode and re-claim the crowd when it's their turn. And explode is exactly what "We Found Love" does. It also fits well at the end since it debuted late in the year.
20. The Muppets: Life's A Happy Song Finale
I'll be fairly pissed when The Muppets is inevitably ignored for Best Picture, but that's a discussion for another time. This was a pretty good year for me personally, and I thought this was a fitting way to cap it. If you think that's corny, well then corn me up. Life's a happy song, when there's someone by your side to sing along.

Underground Mix
1. Aaron Spacemuseum: One Night Standard
A gratuitous lead entry, and it's not even hip-hop. Aaron is a good friend of mine, and it's been a long time since he put out any music in a long time, so I was excited for his EP, which was an excellent five song set. Do me a favor and pick it up, you won't be disappointed!
2. A$AP Rocky: Peso
One of my favorite albums of the year, I thought about putting one of the versions of "Purple Swag," but I felt the original was too short, and Chapter 2 was too long.
3. NaS: Nasty
"Any rebuttal to what I utter get boxcutter." Indeed. It's been too long since we had a NaS solo album, and this was a marvelous appetizer.
4. Kendrick Lamar: HiiiPower
"Trying to stay above water, that's why we shun the Navy." Classic, and that's not even the best line of the song.
5. The Roots: Make My f/ Big K.R.I.T. & Dice Raw
I kind of like "Kool On" a little better, but it's an upbeat song and the album overall is more morose, so "Make My" is a more emblematic choice (plus it was the single they released, which I do like to try to stick to when there is one). And while it may seem odd to see The Roots on an underground disc, the album really hasn't sold that well. It hasn't charted at all, and had only sold 84,000 copies between its Dec. 2 release date and Christmas, which is a shame.
6. Action Bronson: Larry Csonka
Full disclosure, I'm late to the party on Action Bronson, and still haven't listened to either of his projects from this year in full. But I knew I needed to include something from him here, and I have a hard time turning down songs named after athletes.
7. Freddie Gibbs: Menace II Society f/ Dom Kennedy & Polyester
I liked Freddie's take at a west-coast style song.
8. Apathy: Stop What Ya Doin' f/ Celph Titled & DJ Premier
Any time a rapper titles his album Honkey Kong, he gets a song on my CD!
9. Tyler, The Creator: Yonkers
TTC is another guy who I haven't fully delved into yet, but this song and video will undeniably go down as the most memorable of the year.
10. Azealia Banks: 212
This chick is filthy. She's like a sped-up Nicki Minaj, which I didn't think was possible. Looking forward to her debut album.
11. Childish Gambino: Bonfire
Pitchfork famously lampooned this album, but I enjoyed it. I actually enjoy "Fire Fly" a little more, but I was so squeezed for time trying to fit everything in that I couldn't spare the extra 10 seconds, so "Bonfire" will have to do. Sometimes you gotta make the hard decisions!
12. Danny Brown: DNA
Realistically, I could have just copy and pasted all of XXX here and just called it a day, it's that good. You could make a case for a half-dozen other tracks from the album.
13. Random Axe: Chewbacca f/ Roc Marciano
"Your tough talk, I don't get it / you wouldn't fight a ticket, so why recite a lyric." Tough-guy rap sometimes gets lost in the shuffle these days, making this even more important to include.
14. Mobb Deep: Get It Forever f/ NaS
Speaking of tough-guy rap, thank goodness for Mobb Deep's return. Black Cocaine wasn't their strongest effort, but "Get It Forever" was good enough to whet my appetite. "I did my little bid." You did Prodigy, now get back in the lab!
15. Curren$y & The Alchemist: Scottie Pippens f/ Freddie Gibbs As Kramer would say, Curren$y is so prolific! Curren$y plus The Alchemist equals pure gold, to borrow another Seinfeld-ism, and Freddie Gibbs here is the icing on the cake.
16. Lil' B: I Hate Myself
Lil' B goes on a personal journey over a lush track. Just like Drake's Take Care, Lil' B's I'm Gay disc was great music to write to at the end of the year.
17. Ski Beatz: Looking For Me f/ L.E.P. Bogus Boys & Terri Walker
Ski is an awesome producer, just check this resume. He actually gets the production credit on this track and the next.
18. Talib Kweli: Cold Rain
With each passing year, Kweli seems to slide further out of the zeitgeist, but he still hits as hard as he ever did. I have my fingers crossed that the Black Star album actually happens.
19. Pete Rock & Smif-n-Wessun: That's Hard f/ Sean Price & Styles P
Rounding out the album with two awesome posse cuts. The song's title says it all.
20. Mr. Muthaf**kin' eXquire: The Last Huzzah! Remix f/ Despot, Das Racist, Danny Brown & El-P
This song is just bananas. One of the best singles of the year, and perhaps one of the best remixes of all-time, even if breast milk doesn't really make my day.
BONUS CHRISTMAS TRACK. Eazy-E: Merry Motherf**king Christmas f/ Menajahtwa, Buckwheat, Will 1X & Atban Klann
I ended the Aboveground Mix with a sappy cut, so you know I had to go in the complete opposite direction for the bonus Christmas track. Merry motherf**king Christmas!

Bells. Rocked: How the greatest hip-hop show on the planet keeps getting better

2011-09-11T20:47:00.000-06:00

Note: I wrote this on Sunday, September 4, and submitted for possible publication. That didn't pan out, so I thought I'd put it up on the blog, but have had a busy week and am just getting to it now. Hope you enjoy!

Saturday, on a sun-scorched field on Governor’s Island in New York, thousands of hip-hop faithful turned out to witness the latest incarnation of Rock The Bells, a tour that in its eighth year has become the holy grail of hip-hop festivals. It has raised the stakes the past two years with one important change -- having the headlining artists perform their classic albums in their entirety.

“That’s like the second time we’ve done that song in 10 years.” Talib Kweli, after performing “Hater Players”

Bands performing albums in their entirety is certainly nothing new in the music world. Whether it be tribute performances, live shows at festivals such as South By Southwest, All Tomorrow’s Parties and the Pitchfork Music Festival, or even as a tool of self-promotion, performing whole albums serves as both a treat for devoted fans and a primer for uninitiated or casual ones. But it is not something that is common in hip-hop. The Genius/GZA has performed Liquid Swords live for years -- he even built a tour around it in 2008 -- and Public Enemy has performed It Takes A Nation Of Millions To Hold Us Back (and is also slated to perform Fear of A Black Planet) -- live, but neither has ever been accused of existing inside the mainstream mold of hip-hop.

Last year, the festival was headlined by hip-hop force Wu-Tang Clan, who performed their seminal work Enter The Wu-Tang (36 Chambers) (Ol’ Dirty Bastard’s first-born son, who goes by both “Boy Jones” and “Young Dirty Bastard,” and is the spitting image of his late father, performed his parts). Raekwon the Chef said it was the first time the group would perform the whole album live, while The GZA elaborated that the group would prepare for the show by actually rehearsing, something he claimed they had done only three times in their nearly 20 years as a collective. Also performing full albums were Rakim (Paid In Full), KRS-1 (Criminal Minded), Slick Rick (The Great Adventures of Slick Rick), Snoop Dogg (Doggystyle) and A Tribe Called Quest (Midnight Marauders). Lauryn Hill was rumored to be on the bill, but was instead a special guest, performing only selections of The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill rather than the whole work in full. With such a tour de force lineup, and a demanding set of performances, the number of destinations was pared down noticeably, from 10-16 in previous years to just four. This year the destinations included Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York and Boston. Promoters Guerilla Union had a tall task in trying to top the bill from last year’s festival, but if they didn’t top it, they came damn close.

“This is the first time me and Nas gon’ do this shit on stage.” MC Serch, before joining Nas for Serch’s “Back To The Grill.”

In 2005, MTV named Paid In Full the greatest hip-hop album of all-time. Number two was Illmatic, the debut album from one Nasir Jones, better known to the masses as Nas. But while everyone in the late ‘80’s was no doubt influenced by Paid In Full, the number of MC’s who were influenced by Illmatic likely dwarf that. Nas is also more relevant these days than Rakim, as he is still pumping out hits, and this was to be the first time he performed the album live. Co-headlining with the Queensbridge legend was Ms. Hill, who the promoters locked down this year to perform Miseducation in its entirety. Also prominent on the bill were Cypress Hill (performing Black Sunday), Black Star (Mos Def & Talib Kweli Are Black Star), GZA (Liquid Swords), Mobb Deep (The Infamous), Raekwon and Ghostface Killah (Only Built 4 Cuban Linx) and Erykah Badu (Baduizm). Newbies Curren$y and Mac Miller got top billing on the west coast leg, and Common (Be) did every stop but New York.

Never mind the headliners, the prime cuts of that undercard are monster-sized. Anytime hardcore hip-hop heads can see GZA, Raekwon and Ghostface on the same day it’s a good day, to say nothing of Cypress Hill, Badu or Mos Def and Talib Kweli. But most of them tour constantly. The same cannot be said for Mobb Deep, who had not toured together in three years thanks to Prodigy’s incarceration. Even before that, their mostly underground status -- though legendary in the five boroughs -- generally precluded them from big shows like Rock The Bells, and as a result, many diehard fans had never seen them live. They did not disappoint. While they strayed from The Infamous at will and weren’t joined by collaborators like Raekwon, Nas, Ghostface or Lil' Kim (Big Noyd was there of course, rocking an updated version of the crew’s old “Hennessy” jerseys), but they kept their set at a fevered pitch, crushing some of the greatest hits in their catalog, concluding with what is probably the greatest underground hip-hop song of all-time, “Shook Ones, Part Two.” The crowd -- many of whom had been on their feet at that point for seven-plus hours -- left energized. They would need that energy as the festival drew to a close.

Despite speculation in the crowd, Hill did take the stage for her set, and though she seemed thoroughly annoyed with her mic at points, she turned the crowd out. After seemingly drawing her performance to a close with hit “Everything Is Everything,” Hill stunned the crowd. Last year, she brought out several hip-hop and R&B luminaries who were in attendance at the New York show, but none performed with her. This year, she brought back former band mate Pras Michel, with whom she had not been seen with in public since 2006. Together, they performed “Fu-Gee-La,” “Ready Or Not” and “Killing Me Softly,” during which Hill broke from character even further by bringing her children onto stage to share the moment with her. It was a moment that seemed like it would be hard to top. Nas, however, was up to the challenge.

Nas has anointed himself with several personas through the years, but when he started, he was Nasty Nas, and that fire was evident from the beginning. After album intro “Genesis” played, he launched into “New York State Of Mind.” The crowd hung on every word, and when Nas turned the mic to the crowd they bellowed the bars, none louder than the priceless quip “I never sleep, ‘cause sleep is the cousin of death.”

Like Black Star earlier in the day, Nas would burn through each track of the album in order, but unlike Black Star (who did add a couple of hits at the end of their set) Nas detoured from the album twice to pay his respects. The first time was following “The World Is Yours,” when peerless DJ’s Premier and Pete Rock engaged in a lengthy DJ battle. Then, following “Memory Lane,” Nas brought MC Serch to the stage. Nas credited Serch for giving him a shot when he was still young in the game with the song “Back To The Grill,” which they performed to monster effect. Joe Fatal, Large Professor and Akinyele then jumped on stage to perform the song that Nas first appeared on, “Live At The BBQ,” from Main Source’s Breaking Atoms, with the Aktapuss sticking around to thrill the crowd with his cult fave “Put It In Your Mouth.”

The posse cuts seemed to give Nas new life, as he sped through the last few cuts off Illmatic before delighting the crowd with several of his singles, including his new joint “Nasty,” “Hate Me Now,” and “Nas Is Like,” before capping the festivities sooner than he would have liked with the banger “Made You Look” (to his credit, he kept claiming he didn’t want to stop, and looked ready to perform far deeper into the night. This may have been the fault of the crew who set up the stage for him, as they seemingly took forever to set up the most basic props and thus pushed the beginning of Nas’ set closer to the show’s end time.). The crowd was treated by the presence of Steve Nash, who was brought on stage, and giddily danced with the rest of Nas’ crew. He even brought Hill back out for “If I Ruled The World (Imagine That),” though Hill’s mic was once again not working properly.

As will always be the case with a show of this magnitude, mic problems were the bugaboo of the day, as Hill wasn’t alone in that respect. It was one of a few issues that cropped up, though the most notable issue was that with three main stages, fans had some very hard decisions to make -- in particular having to choose between Nas and Raekwon and Ghostface for the final act (My cohorts and I picked the following schedule -- Random Axe, Black Star, GZA, Mobb Deep, Lauryn Hill and Nas, breaking for dinner between GZA and Mobb Deep. This meant missing several acts -- more than a full day’s worth -- that we would have liked to have seen, such as Donald Glover/Childish Gambino, Masta Killa, Slaughterhouse, Evidence and of course, Raekwon and Ghostface.). But just as there were unexpected potholes, the unexpected performances from The RZA, Serch, Akinyele, as well as the DJ battle between Premo and The Chocolate Boy Wonder more than balanced the scales.

Recently, Watch The Throne and Tha Carter IV set records for album downloads, but far too frequently these days, we consume music song by song rather album by album. With the cost of music so low, fans are increasingly hesitant to pay to see even the best artists live. By applying the whole album formula for its largest acts, Rock The Bells has hit the sweet spot of giving fans a unique experience that is also well worth the money, and it has brought out the best of its performers. As an added bonus, they have rekindled the love for the long player, something that in today’s 140 characters or less world is a welcome respite. Stuck off the realness, indeed.

Moving Forward, Falling Behind

2011-08-15T15:58:00.001-06:00

Tumultuous: Marked by tumult: loud, excited and emotional.

That's pretty much the way I would describe my move back to Massachusetts. Without going into too much detail, it's been four months since I left Denver, and I can still hardly believe it. But between raising Xander, figuring out a routine with two new jobs, trying to get even more additional freelance work, getting the house packed up, moving back in with my parents, dealing with some serious family medical issues, moving out of my parents' house, getting settled in a new apartment and exploring our new surroundings, I somehow fell behind on my music purchases.

Two weeks ago, I was trying to cajole a friend on Instant Messenger into buying tickets to the "Rock The Bells" show in New York that I'm heading out to in a couple of weeks, and he mentioned that he probably wasn't going to that, but that he was working on getting "Watch The Throne" tickets. I stared at the screen blankly, not knowing what "Watch The Throne" was. When he explained what pretty much the entire planet already knew -- Jay-Z and Kanye West made an album together and are going on tour together to perform it. I knew if this had slipped past my radar that I really needed to redouble my efforts on the music front.

I had been saving a couple of Amazon gift cards, and I tore into them a little bit last night. I picked up Adele's "Rolling In The Deep," Nicki Minaj's "Super Bass," the Bad Meets Evil album and "Watch The Throne." I haven't listened to Bad Meets Evil yet at all, and the others have only gotten one listen. I'll be back (hopefully) later with comments on all of them. I also have made a lengthy list of releases that I need to catch up on since the start of the year (I think the only other album I've bought all year was the Raekwon "Shaolin vs. Wu-Tang" disc -- which, while solid, was underwhelming when compared to Only Bulit For Cuban Linx II and when you take into account how much he hyped it on his Twitter account).

I've always told myself that I would never fall out of touch with music, and after getting my first taste of being out of touch I can tell you that I did not care for it one bit -- even if I had valid reasons for falling behind. But now that we've moved forward, fear not selfless reader, I will not fall behind again.

2010 Holiday Mixes Explained

2011-01-11T22:26:00.000-07:00

I feel like I have a lot of blogging to catch up on - updating my favorite movies list, looking at how I did with my NFL regular season picks, discussing my annual post-Christmas music shopping spree, talking baseball and probably some other stuff. But I need to get the holiday mixes off my chest.

For the fifth consecutive year, I made a double disc holiday mix collection for some close friends and family. I do it for two reasons. First, as far back as I can remember, I've loved making mix tapes; compiling the best of what I've been listening to into one handy tape or cd. And I've always loved sharing these mixes with other people, and people seem to enjoy them, which is nice. Second, as I get older, I have less and less time to devote to music. So doing these holiday mixes is kind of like a year-in-review for me. I can dive in in late November, figure out what have been my favorite, and/or the best tracks of the year. I split the mixes into "Underground," which is mostly underground hip-hop, and what I call "Aboveground," which is popular music. On the underground disc it's anything goes, though I try to use actual singles, rather than just picking random tracks I like. On the aboveground mix though, I try to keep it to records that went gold (500k sold) and/or were on the Billboard Hot 100 chart at some point during the year. I'd say I stick to those guidelines about 95% of the time. My only other rule, which I am a fantastic stickler about, is that the song had to come out in 2010. So many songs become popular the year after they are released, and I don't like to include those. If you weren't good enough to get popular right when it came out, well, them's the brakes.

This year, the aboveground mix was pretty hip-hop heavy. Drake and Nicki Minaj were everywhere, and had to be represented. Drake gets on three tracks and Nicki on two, one of their own, with the others being guest shots. Even though he's from Pittsburgh, and the song is about Pittsburgh colors, I loved Wiz Khalifa's "Black & Yellow" for two reasons. One, it's awesome when people pen songs like that about their city, it'd be nice if someone could make a track half as good about Boston ("Dirty Water" is great and all, but it'd be nice to have a newer anthem for the city). Second, black and yellow are the colors of the Boys & Girls Club branch I volunteer at, and all the kids there love the song, which it makes it a little more special to me. One late addition to the mix ended up being a great one - Cali Swag District's "Teach Me How To Dougie." It's easy to discount this as a party jam, but the lyrics on it are actually pretty good. We'll have to see how they follow it up. Another last minute add was Dr. Dre's "Kush," featuring Snoop Dogg and Akon. Let's hope this is the year that Detox finally gets released.

The mix isn't all hip-hop though. I led the mix off with Shakira's "Waka Waka," the World Cup theme song. I figure that we are going to remember this year for the riveting World Cup, and it's such a good song, so it deserved to lead off. Elsewhere, Rihanna made the cut once again with "What's My Name," the fourth straight year she is on the mix - tied for longest streak ever with Jay-Z and Kanye West. I also had to tip my hat to Taylor Swift and throw "Mine" in the mix, something that absolutely shocked my wife. And you know I had to place her song right before Kanye's!

Speaking of Mr. West, he once again scored a song, with "Monster." Kanye is the all-time leader in the aboveground mix, with a total of seven songs. I also considered "Power," "All of the Lights" and "Runaway" for this slot, but "Power" just doesn't have the X-factor, "All of the Lights" wasn't yet a single, and "Runaway" is just too long. Plus, the unanimous verse of the year was Nicki Minaj's verse on "Monster," so I had to have it on there.

Some songs that just missed the cut were Flo Rida's "Club Can't Handle Me," Michael Jackson & Akon's "Hold My Hand," Enrique Iglesias' "I Like It," Trey Songz' "Bottoms Up" and The Roots & John Legend's "Wake Up Everybody." The only tough decision was Flo Rida, and after I saw him perform on New Year's Eve at MTV, I was glad I left him off. He's really just not good. I give him another year or two, tops. MJ I left off because while the song came out in 2010, it was obviously recorded a few years ago. It just didn't feel right to include it.

Here's the track listing for the "Aboveground Mix:"

1. Shakira - Waka Waka
2. B.O.B. - Airplanes f/ Hayley Williams
3. Katy Perry - California Gurls f/ Snoop Dogg
4. Wiz Khalifa - Black & Yellow
5. Waka Flocka Flame - No Hands f/ Wale & Roscoe Dash
6. Cali Swag District - Teach Me How To Dougie
7. Taylor Swift - Mine
8. Kanye West - Monster f/ Rick Ross, Jay-Z, Nicki Minaj & Bon Iver
9. Rihanna - What's My Name f/ Drake
10. Far East Movement - Like A G6
11. Big Boi - Shutterbugg f/ Cutty
12. Cee-Lo - F**k You
13. Drake - Find Your Love
14. Nicki Minaj - Right Thru Me
15. Janelle Monae - Tightrope f/ Big Boi
16. Pitbull - Hey Baby (Drop It To The Floor) f/ T-Pain
17. Lloyd Banks - Beamer, Benz or Bentley f/ Juelz Santana
18. Lil' Wayne - Right Above It f/ Drake
19. Dr. Dre - Kush f/ Snoop Dogg & Akon
20. Eminem - Not Afraid

The underground mix can sometimes be a grind for me. Back in the day, I'd just go to Hip Zepi if I was in Boston, or Fat Beats if I was in New York, I would ask the man behind the counter what's hot, drop $20-$80, and I'd have all the latest and greatest on the underground circuit. Easy. Now, you have to comb the internet to really distinguish between what's good and what isn't. I trust a few sites to guide me - Pitchfork and HipHopDX more than any others. But while it can sometimes be a painstaking process, this was not one of those times. I actually had a much easier time of it this year than usual. Maybe I kept up better this year, who knows.

Over the years, I have included about 40% more artists on the underground mix as on the aboveground mix, which makes sense. The people that dominate the pop charts simply don't turn over as quickly. But the mainstays on the underground have been the Wu-Tang. Raekwon has been on the mix every year, and a mix-topping eight times overall. Ghostface Killah has been on six times, good for second-highest, and Method Man a respectable four times as well. They all get on on the same track this year, their group effort "Our Dreams," which was produced by The RZA and featured a Michael Jackson sample.

The mix leads off with Aloe Blacc's "I Need A Dollar," which was the theme song to HBO's summer hit "How To Make It In America." Next up was J. Cole, who we should hear a lot more from in 2011 now that he is signed to Def Jam, with "Who Dat," the one song he currently has that is available for purchase. Next was Lil' Kim's "Black Friday," a diss record referring to Nicki Minaj's LP "Pink Friday." This may have been Nicki's year, but Nicki definitely fed her hype through her beef with Kim, and Kim absolutely slays her on this track. Hopefully this will be a good (but non-violent) beef for awhile.

Overall, the mix had two different vibes. On the one hand, there are three tributes to Keith Elam, better known as Guru from Gangstarr, who passed away this year. That was terrible, and since he's a Bostonian, I had to represent a little bit extra for him. On the other hand, there were several uplifting/lighthearted songs, such as the Wu-Tang track, Maino's "Hold On," Cypress Hill's "Armada Latina," and Statik Selektah's & Termanology's "Wedding Bells." That Massachusetts duo dropped hard in 2010, and hopefully there will be more good things to come from them. Another favorite Mass duo - 7L & Esoteric - finally returned this year, and they did so with Inspectah Deck, who helped bless their first LP nearly ten years ago. Their track, "12th Chamber," is lovely. One more Bostonian who made the cut was newcomer Dutch ReBelle, whose LP also is slated to drop in 2011. I'm excited for that one.

I always try to get one really good transfer on the underground mix, which is difficult when you're just burning these mixes in iTunes, as opposed to using real recording equipment. But in any case, I think I pulled off a good one with the transfer from Wale's "The War" to Kno's "Spread Your Wings." The first time I heard that, I knew it was seamless.

As always, the mix closes with a bonus Christmas track. Since Christmas music usually sucks and is also timeless, I waive the 2010-only rule for this song only. I've already heard rave reviews about this year's track, Tha Dogg Pound's "Santa Claus Goes Straight To The Ghetto." It's just a whole lot of awesomeness, if you've never heard it, you should check it out.

Here's the track listing for the underground mix:

1. Aloe Blacc - I Need A Dollar
2. J. Cole - Who Dat
3. Lil' Kim - Black Friday
4. Jay Electronica - The Ghost of Christopher Wallace f/ Diddy
5. Freddie Gibbs - National Anthem (F**k The World)
6. Fat Joe - I'm Gone
7. Celph Titled & Buckwild - There Will Be Blood f/ Sadat X, Grand Puba, AG, OC & Diamond D
8. Maino - Hold On f/ Mya
9. Method Man, Raekwon & Ghostface Killah - Our Dreams
10. Cypress Hill - Armada Latina f/ Pitbull & Marc Anthony
11. Statik Selektah & Termanology - Wedding Bells f/ Jared Evan
12. 7L & Esoteric - 12th Chamber f/ Inspectah Deck
13. NaS - Snitch Alibi
14. Dutch ReBelle - I'm Ill Remix
15. Curren$y - Michael Knight
16. Wale - The War
17. Kno - Spread Your Wings f/ Deacon The Villain
18. Group Home - G.U.R.U. f/ Jeru Tha Damaga
19. DJ Premier - The Gangstar Bus f/ Freddie Foxx
20. BONUS CHRISTMAS TRACK Tha Dogg Pound - Santa Claus Goes Straight To The Ghetto

I can always be talked into burning a set or two, so if you'd like one, drop me a line.

Who Could Use Manny Ramirez?

2010-12-28T17:58:00.000-07:00

We've seen this before. The last time Manny Ramirez was a free agent, his agent Scott Boras dragged out the process until March, before Ramirez resigned with the Dodgers. At the time, he was coming off a torrid second half after joining the Dodgers, and parlayed that into a two-year, $40 million deal. Since then, Manny has seemingly been in decline. However, had he accumulated enough plate appearances to qualify for leader boards last year, Ramirez's .409 OBP would have ranked fifth in the Majors, behind only Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. In case you forgot, these were the top two finishers in each league's MVP race last season. By advanced metrics, he did well also - a .330 TAv with the Dodgers, and a .286 mark in limited action with the White Sox. His wOBA of .382 ranked 23rd in the Majors (minimum 300 PAs). The power might not be where it once was, but Ramirez still gets on base at an extraordinary clip. And his on-base numbers weren't overly inflated by intentional walks, as he only had four last year. Bottom line, a lot of teams could use Ramirez's on-base prowess, and if his power comes back at all, he could easily be a steal on a one-year, $10 million, two year, $25 million type deal.

But while there are plenty of teams that could use him, like the Giants for instance, there aren't a lot of teams that can conceivably fit him on their roster. For instance, the Giants outfield already has Mark DeRosa, Pat Burrell, Cody Ross, Andres Torres and Aaron Rowand, so they probably aren't going to be in on Ramirez. Here are the teams that could use his bat and have room for him, from worst fit to best fit:

10. Atlanta: Atlanta still needs a bat, but it's not obvious where the fit is here. The one opening is center field, as Nate McLouth shouldn't be handed a job at this point. But moving Heyward or Prado to center is a tricky proposition. You could stick Ramirez at first as well, but then that's blocking Freddie Freeman. Not the end of the world certainly, but then again, Ramirez has never played first.
9. Chicago Cubs: Kosuke Fukudome was actually been a poor man's version of Ramirez's 2010 season offensively, but with better defense, so the fit here isn't tremendous. But it's the kind of situation you could see Ramirez thriving in, and it's the kind of deal you could see Jim
8. San Diego: Will Venable probably shouldn't be handed the right field job. The Pads could easily slide Ryan Ludwick from left field to right, and plug Ramirez in. I have San Diego ranked a little lower since they are less likely to contend this season given the trade of Adrian Gonzalez, though I love how the Pads have remade their up the middle positions this winter. In fact, look for an article on that soon.
7. Colorado: The Rockies spent the last two months of the season claiming Seth Smith didn't deserve a starting job, and Ryan Spilborghs has certainly shown himself not capable of holding down a starting job. The Rockies also went out and signed Ty Wigginton this offseason, but Wigginton, to be polite, is not the answer there either. So the Rockies do have an outfield hole. The Rox could easily slide Gonzalez over to right field and plug Ramirez into left. But file that under "probably won't happen."
6. Tampa Bay: Matt Joyce at DH is probably fine. Desmond Jennings in LF is probably fine. Sean Rodriguez at second base is probably fine, thereby lessening the need for Ben Zobrist to log infield duty. But if the Rays want to protect any of those players, Ramirez and his .623 career SLG at Tropicana Field would fit well there.
5. Philadelphia: The Phillies are clearly pushing all in this season. So it really doesn't make a lot of sense that they will have an ancient Raul Ibanez in one outfield corner and a rookie (Dominic Brown) in the other. And since both hit left-handed, Ramirez would make a perfect platoon partner.
4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Their listed DH's are Mike Napoli and Howie Kendrick, who ostensibly have other positions. Peter Bourjos dominated Triple-A last season, but his 193 Major League PA's were uninspiring to say the least, so he may not be ready to handle center full-time, which would push Torrii Hunter back to the middle. Couple that with the fact that the Angels have been left out in the cold this winter, and they may start to feel pressure to do something here. That something really should be Adrian Beltre, but the Halos have so little offense that they have room for both. Originally, I had Anaheim first, but I bumped them back to fourth due to Juan Rivera, who lessens Ramirez's outfield value to the Halos.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers could actually use Ramirez back at Chavez Ravine, unless they really are planning on running out Jay Gibbons and Tony Gwynn, Jr. in left field in 2011.
2. Texas: This is probably my favorite fit. I realize the Rangers just played this game with Vlad The Impaler last season, but even with his balky hamstrings, Ramirez is more mobile than Guerrero was, making him less of an albatross in games in National League parks, or just when other guys need a day off. With Josh Hamilton still more than capable of manning center field, Ramirez and David Murphy could trade off playing left and DH'ing, with Julio Borbon getting fill-in starts in center when Hamilton needs a breather.
1. Detroit: Brennan Boesch is not the answer in left field, nor is Ryan Raburn. The Tigers have spent some coin this offseason, but are still an underdog to the White Sox, and perhaps to the Twins as well, depending on how Justin Morneau comes back. On days that Ramirez needed to rest his legs, you could let him DH, give Boesch or Raburn a spot start, and slide Victor Martinez back behind the dish. A lineup core of Cabrera, Martinez, Ramirez and Magglio Ordonez would be pretty tasty, and would rival what the White Sox are putting on the field.

So there you have it - ten teams that could use Manny Ramirez this offseason. Who will it be? Hopefully, this time we find out before March.

Madison Square Garden

2010-12-22T14:44:00.000-07:00

This is a little belated, but last Friday night I got to drink in Madison Square Garden for the first time. I was in town to see family, and was swinging into the city at the last minute for an interview with what turned out to be my future employer. When I told my good friend and college roommate Kevin of my impending arrival, he said, 'boy, too bad the prices for the Heat-Knicks game are so expensive, that would be fun to go to.' I agreed, and we moved on. Thirty minutes later, he emailed that he had found tickets. So much for them being too expensive - though he wouldn't tell me how much he paid. Like I cared - I was going to my first game at MSG! And it was against the Heat, so I didn't even have to root against the Knicks, which was a double bonus (like a double rainbow, but not as fruity).

I finished my interview just in time to change and hustle over to the Garden. The first impressive thing? Security. They managed to inspect everyone coming through without creating a traffic jam, an impressive feat for an outfit in New York City. Tickets - same thing. Everyone got right in. We were on the escalators for what seemed like forever, but then we realized we had actually gone up one level too far.

After getting to the right level, we decided to grab a beer and head for our seats. The beers were $9 a piece, which was steep, but I gladly picked them up seeing as how Kevin had sprung for the tickets. Our seats were in the very last row of the 300 level, but the view was still more than good. A couple of people around me were using binoculars, but I thought that was pointless. Even from the distance, and with my poor eyesight, I could read the names and numbers on the backs of the player's jerseys. That may have been the best part of MSG right there. Even in the bad seats, you were still pretty much right on top of the action. When the crowd got loud at the start of the game, it was absolutely electric.

The first quarter was filled with lead changes, exciting dunks and breathtaking threes. The Knicks got down a bit at the end of the quarter, and sensing that it might be time for the starters to take a breather, I grabbed the opportunity to get us food (and more beer of course). I ended up missing the first five minutes of the quarter, as I ordered hot dogs that still needed some time to cook, but the girl behind the register, Renee R., was incredibly polite about the situation. I dare say that I have rarely, if ever, received better customer service at a sports venue. At this point, I was basically ready to give MSG a solid A - good seating bowl, good atmosphere, good service, good times. I wish I could say the same for the Knicks.

After mounting a furious comeback to tie the game at halftime, the Knicks came out ice cold in the second half. Amar'e Stoudemire wouldn't drive the lane, which is a major issue for the Knicks. He is their only inside prescience, and when he is settling for 15-foot jumpers, it clogs up the perimeter and makes it harder for the Knicks' wing players to score. And that's exactly what happened. The Knicks were outscored 33-17 in the third quarter, and the Heat cruised from there. Looking at the box score afterward on Kevin's phone, we were amazed that LeBron James was credited with nine misses, because it didn't seem like he had missed all game. Without Stoudemire unwilling to kick it up a notch, the Knicks were forced to turn to Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler, and they were no match for LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. But while on the hardwood, the Knicks didn't fulfill their expectations, everywhere else, MSG certainly lived up to its billing as the "most famous arena in the world."

The Pats Pass Defense Isn't THAT Bad

2010-12-13T16:07:00.002-07:00

Common wisdom this season is that the Patriots have an abysmal pass defense. After all, they have allowed 3,460 yards through the air, which right now, is the worst in the league, but unless the Texans allow less than 11 yards through the air it will rank 31st in the league come tomorrow morning. On a per game basis, the Pats are allowing 266 yards through the air in each game, which again, is second worst in the league. That's pretty bad, but one problem you encounter when you look at bulk stats is that they provide little context. In the Patriots case, the context is this: in 10 of the Patriots 11 wins, they have had a fourth quarter lead of 10 or more points. Pop quiz: when teams are down 10 or more points in the fourth quarter, what do they do? Answer: they throw the ball. A lot. And so it has been for the Patriots this season. Here are the yardage totals accumulated by the aforementioned 10 teams while they trailed by 10 or more in the fourth quarter against the Pats this season:

TEAM YARDS
CIN 98
BUF 70
MIA 66
SD 123
MIN 99
PIT 252
IND 90
DET 83
NYJ 47
CHI 56
TOTAL 984

The Pittsburgh total is staggering. Trailing 23-3 entering the fourth quarter, the Steelers tacked on three fourth quarter touchdowns, none of which brought them closer than 10 points behind. In fact, with the clock running out, and the Steelers down 13, with no hope of winning, the Steelers ran the clock down to zero by passing for an additional 68 yards. They reached the New England seven, which I'm sure thrilled Ben Roethlisberger fantasy owners, but did absolutely nothing to win them the game.

Altogether, these 984 passing yards allowed represent 28.44 percent of the total passing yards allowed by the Pats this season. That's a pretty large total, and one that makes the bulk total allowed seem a bit more reasonable. You can't hand waive the 984 yards. After all, they DID allow the yards, and in two cases - San Diego and Indy - legitimately allowed the teams back in the game to the point where each had a chance to tie or win in the final seconds. However, given this data, it's also not fair to say that the Pats have the worst pass defense in the league either.

Through games played yesterday, the Pats have the 5th best interception rate in the league, as they have intercepted an even 4 percent of the passes thrown against them (20 of 500). Now, they have had more opportunities, as those 500 attempts are most in the league, but they are getting to balls. Not that I'm suggesting the Pats have the 5th best pass defense in the league, I'm not. I think they fall in the 20's somewhere. Through week 13, Football Outsiders had the Pats pass defense ranked 26th, and through yesterday, the Pats yards allowed pass rank was 22nd. Neither of these are particularly sterling marks, but I think that their true rank is somewhere between those two figures. It's a young, gambling defense that can hurt the team but also generate the big play. It's among the worst in the league, but having big leads has unfairly fueled a far too negative perception of the Pats pass defense overall.

Why Is Nobody Talking About The San Antonio Spurs?

2010-12-11T09:40:00.000-07:00

On ESPN.com, Marc Stein gets 1,811 into his "Weekend Dime" before he talks about the Spurs. On SI.com, the top 2 headlines are about Derrick Rose and George Karl, and the only columnist tackling the Spurs on their NBA page is a narrow look at Gary Neal, by Lee Jenkins. The Spurs are not one of the top five headlines right now on NBA.com. On Foxsports.com NBA page there is finally an article about the fact that the Spurs, not the Lakers, Celtics or Heat, are the only team currently on pace for 70 wins. Of course, it's buried underneath a story on Phil Jackson losing to the Bulls, and the Heat getting their groove back. Maybe it's because the Spurs are "boring." Maybe it's because no one has ever cared about Tim Duncan. Maybe it's because people are afraid to praise Tony Parker since his divorce story broke. Maybe it's because the Spurs have yet to play the big three teams. Or maybe it's because people are sleeping on the San Antonio Spurs.

The Spurs though, should be the story right now. After ripping off four straight wins, the Spurs 19-3 mark currently stands atop the NBA. There are a lot of reasons to say that it's not a fluke either. For starters, their point differential of 9.6 is tops in the league. The Spurs are third in scoring, and though they are allowing more points than a typical Spurs team, they are still a very respectable 11th in points allowed. But while allowing 97.3 points per game seems like blasphemy for the team that twice in the Popovich reign has allowed less than 85 points per game, the Spurs actually allowed 96.3 points per game last season, so this shouldn't be a huge surprise. No, the surprise is the offense. Last year's Spurs team was the first under Popovich to average more than 100 points per game, as they scored an average of 101.4. But this year's squad is blowing that out of the water, at 107.0, a mark bettered only by the run 'n' gun squads in Phoenix and New York.

Looking at the offense, this also doesn't seem like a fluke. The Spurs have scored 100 or better in 16 of their 22 contests, and there is also no ridiculous game artificially pushing their average up. Their high is 124, but that was in an overtime game. Their regular time high is 122, against the Pacers in their first game of the season. Taking the 16 games in which they've topped 100 points as a whole, they are averaging 111.6 points, and 11 of the 16 games have been within +/- five points of that average, showing just how consistent they have been. And while the schedule hasn't been brutal, it wouldn't offend Gordon Gee either. The Spurs have put up 106 on Orlando, the league's third-best defensive team (in terms of points allowed), and twice have dropped 109 on New Orleans, the league's second-best defensive team. They also dropped 117 in Oklahoma City, and 103 on the Bulls, a team that is currently being celebrated for holding the Lakers to 84.

Have the Spurs had their fair share of cream puffs on the schedule? Absolutely. They have twice beat the Clippers, Timberwolves and Warriors, and have also taken the 76ers and Cavaliers to the woodshed, so this new Spurs offensive juggernaut is far from assured over the course of 82 games. But with Richard Jefferson hooked up to the juvenation machine ($1, Simmons) Tim Duncan has been pushed to an unfathomable fourth in points per game on his own team (he's never finished lower than second). That right there is as good a reason as any to believe this will continue. The Spurs are averaging 107 points per game, and Duncan is only contributing 13.6 a game. This is a team that routinely needed 22 out of Duncan just to get to 95 a game. And while that 107 a game may eventually dip to 105 or 103, this is uncharted, and more importantly, exciting water for the Popovich-Duncan Spurs. So how come nobody is talking about it?

Examining the Red Sox Roster, Part 1

2010-12-08T22:30:00.003-07:00

With the big news breaking that Carl Crawford is on the verge of signing a seven-year, $142 million deal with the Red Sox, it's about time we took a look at how the Red Sox 25-man roster shakes out as currently constituted. I'll include Crawford and Jason Varitek in the discussion even though their deals are not yet official. As with the piece on the Rockies, this is just focused on players currently on the team. As such, I've changed the title of the post from "handicapping" to "examining," as that seems a little more apt. Here's what I have:

1 SP Jon Lester
2 SP Clay Buchholz
3 SP Josh Beckett
4 SP John Lackey
5 SP Daisuke Matsuzaka
6 RP Jonathan Papelbon
7 RP Daniel Bard
8 RP Tim Wakefield
9 RP Scott Atchison
10 RP Felix Doubront
11 RP Stolmy Pimentel
12 RP Michael Bowden
13 C Jason Varitek
14 1B Adrian Gonzalez
15 2B Dustin Pedroia
16 3B Kevin Youkilis
17 SS Marco Scutaro
18 LF Carl Crawford
19 CF Jacoby Ellsbury
20 RF JD Drew
21 DH David Ortiz
22 Bench Jarrod Saltalamacchia
23 Bench Mike Cameron
24 Bench Darnell McDonald
25 Bench Jed Lowrie

At this point in the offseason, it's fairly plain that the bullpen is going to be an issue. The Sox are likely to pick up at least one more bullpen arm, but even if they get two more, Tim Wakefield is going to be a prized asset in the bullpen, assuming the five starters stay healthy (a big assumption). While Felix Doubront and Stolmy Pimentel were ranked by Baseball America as the 8th and 9th best prospect in the Red Sox system for 2011, I doubt they will be counted on to have an impact right away. And though Michael Bowden pitched better in September - he compiled a 3.86 ERA across 9 1/3 innings - he's been little more than an injury replacement/September call-up the last two years, so it is a stretch to think that he would be counted upon or handed a job right away either. Of course, the Sox may not have any choice.

But where there may be uncertainty on the pitching side of the equation, the offense is looking pretty stacked. They have the luxury of either trading an outfielder and slotting Kalish on to the big-league team, or simply keeping the uber-talented Kalish in Pawtucket to start the season. The team's short bench will be good to great, depending on how you feel about Saltalamacchia. And the lineup...wow:

LF Crawford
2B Pedroia
1B Gonzalez
3B Youkilis
DH Ortiz
RF Drew
C Varitek
CF Ellsbury
SS Scutaro

A second variation would have Ellsbury moving to leadoff, Crawford to fifth, and Ortiz, Drew and Varitek all moving down one spot, but I like Crawford better in the leadoff spot. Also, despite claims that the Sox would get too left-handed if they acquired both Crawford and Gonzalez, the above lineup goes L-R-L-R-L, making it damn near impossible to navigate the top of the lineup with a single reliever (unless the reliever is Mariano Rivera). It's a recipe for success the Sox used in 2003, times 15. In 2003, they were counting on castoffs like Jeremy Giambi, Bill Mueller and Ortiz. If this is indeed the top six in the Sox batting order, it's a top six that has seen each player spend time hitting third, and in the case of Crawford, Gonzalez, Ortiz and Drew, significant time. That's pretty rare. And pretty exciting, something the 2010 Sox most definitely were not.

Handicapping the Rockies Roster, Part 1

2010-12-03T08:11:00.003-07:00

With the non-tenders last night, and the trade for Jose Lopez, here is my guesstimate for what the Rockies roster would look like if the season started today:

1 SP Ubaldo Jimenez
2 SP Jorge De La Rosa
3 SP Jhoulys Chacin
4 SP Felipe Paulino
5 SP Aaron Cook
6 RP Matt Belisle
7 RP Rafael Betancourt
8 RP Matt Daley
9 RP Franklin Morales
10 RP Matt Reynolds
11 RP Esmil Rogers
12 RP Huston Street
13 C Chris Iannetta
14 1B Todd Helton
15 2B Jonathan Herrera
16 3B Ian Stewart
17 SS Troy Tulowitzki
18 LF Seth Smith
19 CF Dexter Fowler
20 RF Carlos Gonzalez
21 Bench Michael McKenry
22 Bench Jose Lopez
23 Bench Chris Nelson
24 Bench Ryan Spilborghs
25 Bench Eric Young, Jr.

A couple of notes. This is strictly based on who is currently on the 40-man roster, with the exception of Jorge De La Rosa. While De La Rosa hasn't officially resigned, I slotted him in there anyway, as it seems that his contract has reached the formality stages.

You'll notice that Jason Hammel is not listed. My early prediction is that he gets moved this winter, or loses his spot in Spring Training. He could end up in the bullpen again, but I think it's starter or bust for him, and he may net a prospect or two in a trade in late March, similar to how the Rockies acquired him in the first place.

At second, I have Herrera listed, but it really could/should be an open competition. I don't believe that the trade for Jose Lopez automatically means that he will start at second, and I think Chris Nelson deserves a look as well. Eric Young, Jr. did very little to show that he deserved a starting nod, so for me there would be a gap between him and the other three.

I think that at this point the roster is mainly set. With all of the non-tendered relievers, I could see a reliever being added to challenge Daley and Rogers, and I hope to see another starter added to challenge Cook, Hammel and Paulino. I think it is likely that a back-up catcher could factor in, though I would stick with McKenry and spread the extra money around elsewhere. Finally, another bench bat could be added, something that would jeopardize the roster spot of Nelson or Young. I think with the trade of Barmes and the acquisition of Lopez, you have to consider Herrera safe for now, as the Rockies don't have another legit backup shortstop. The last time Lopez played shortstop was 2004, so I don't think he is a viable option there.

I'll look to update this more with each passing transaction. Also, look for a similar series of posts on the Red Sox roster soon.

Bobby Jenks

2010-12-02T14:11:00.003-07:00

Since leaving the Rockies organization to embark on my new venture as stay-at-home dad/freelance writer, I've been in a frenzy trying to line up things to do with my son as well as possible gigs, and I really need to write up how that all came to fruition, which I will attempt to do soon. But in the interim, I haven't been paying rapt attention to my Twitter feed, so I'm a little behind on who has and has not been tendered. But one name that caught my attention this afternoon was Bobby Jenks.

Jenks seems to have fallen into the arbitration trap that teams so frequently face. He was clearly going to get a raise based on his season last year - he had enough innings pitched, and had 27+ saves for a fifth consecutive season. No matter what your opinion of his true value is, in arbitration you can only use the facts of the situation, and for relievers, the two most important factors are service time/playing time and role (closer, set-up, middle, mop-up). Jenks was going to get a raise.

Chicago didn't need to pay for that. Reports already have Matt Thornton listed as his possible successor, and Ozzie Guillen and Don Cooper have always built strong bullpens. The $9-10 million Jenks would have cost them in arbitration is probably best served being spent elsewhere, especially if Paul Konerko really does want to live closer to home in Arizona (or if they need that money for Adam Dunn). But this doesn't mean that Jenks can't be an effective reliever somewhere else at a lower price.

Looking at Jenks 2010 season, he didn't rank well in metrics like WXRL, WARP, VORP, or fWAR. His walk rate was up, and his ERA+ of 99 was a career low, and he is now two years removed from what looks like a two year peak - he had WARP's of 4.9 and 3.9 in '07 and '08, nothing higher than 2.1 in any other year. But there are also a lot of positive indicators for Jenks going forward.

For starters, he will only be 30 years old next season and has saved 27+ games in one of the largest markets in the country. There are a number of others. Let's do this bullet point style:

- His BABIP last year was .368, which was easily a career high. Looking at his batted ball data however, this scream fluke - as his line drive rate wasn't significantly higher than in any other year, and his ground ball rate was up while his fly ball rate was down. Generally, that would be a recipe for a lower BABIP. For whatever reason, his balls found holes last year. This could be related to the fact that Jenks for the first time started mixing in a changeup last year - 6.5% of the time. But his average fastball velocity didn't dip it wouldn't seem on the surface that he worked in the change up to cover for a lack of pop in his heater.
- His K/9 and K/BB rates were each the second best rates of his career.
- He only allowed three home runs despite playing in a homeriffic ballpark, and 2 of them came at the hands of the Blue Jays, who in case you hadn't heard, hit a lot of home runs last year.
- His xFIP of 2.62 was the lowest of his career and his FIP of 2.59 was only .03 off his career high ('07).

Is Bobby Jenks worth a 3 year, $22 million deal? Maybe not, but for the right price, he could absolutely be an asset for someone next season. As an aside, I also wonder if he is a victim of the hot stove's new sped-up timeline. Probably not, as he wasn't going to be worth $9-10 million this week or two weeks from now, but perhaps the quicker deadlines were a factor, if not for him, for other tender/non-tender candidates. Finally, does Jenks being on the market reduce what is seemingly already a thin trade market for Jonathan Papelbon? I would certainly think so.

Last note - looking into a new blog site. Wordpress was recommended to me. Drop me a line on Twitter - @Swydan - if you have another suggestion. Thanks!

Random Thoughts on a Sunday Night

2010-11-07T23:15:00.000-07:00

So I never wrote that World Series preview I promised, did I? The truth is, I was all geared up to break down why the Phillies (or Giants) would triumph over the Yankees, but when the Yanks were unceremoniously kicked to the curb, it sort of took the wind out of my analytical sails. But as it turns out, that was a good thing. I haven't watched a World Series in which I had no rooting interest for quite some time - probably the first since 2005. It was a wonderful experience. I only wish it had gone six or seven. But I think we have to realize that that just may not happen as much anymore thanks to the extra round of playoffs. The last year that the World Series was a best-of-nine was 1921. From 1922-1968, which was the last year before the advent of the League Championship Series, the World Series went to seven games 43% of the time (20 out of 47). Since, it has gone to seven only 32% of the time (13 out of 41). Is that a bit of small sample size theater? Probably. But I think that there's something to the theory that these days, the players are exhausted by the time they reach the World Series, and this is decreasing the likelihood of the Fall Classic reaching the sixth or seventh game. It's the best reason I can think of to not expand the playoffs.

Some other random thoughts on a Sunday night:
- This Rajon Rondo fella might make it. Nine or more assists in each of the C's first seven games, and he has the team on a roll. In an unrelated note, I was a little concerned at the outset that the O'Neal's would steal some of Perk's minutes when Perk returns in February/March, but so far those concerns are unfounded. Shaq can't stay healthy, and Jermaine O'Neal is a very animated corpse.
- One side effect to being a father is that, unless you have limitless energy - something I thought I had but have been proven dead wrong - you inevitably fall behind on pop culture. Luckily, I have built my holiday cd mixes as a safeguard against falling behind for too long, at least in terms of music, but I am definitely slacking. I still haven't picked up Drake's LP, but I'm looking forward to digesting that, as well as new material from Nicki Minaj, Rihanna, Wiz Khalifa, 7L & Esoteric, Rah Digga, that Boy George & Mark Ronson collabo and a whole slew of randomness. Oh, plus the Freddie Gibbs and Wale CD's I downloaded three months ago but still haven't listened to.
- Work will soon commence on my latest version of my favorite 100 movies. Shoo-ins include Toy Story 3, The Town and The Social Network. Also, stay tuned for my new take on Avatar.
- I was watching True Lies the other night. Whatever happened to Tia Carrere? I liked her.
- Speaking of which, Netflix and it's streaming online presence are making it really difficult to justify ever buying a DVD or Blu-Ray ever again. I added True Lies to our instant queue in approximately 26 seconds.
- After today's whupping in Cleveland, Tom Brady is just 3-8 in stateside road games since returning from being Pollard'ed. One win was last season against the Bills, a team the Patriots haven't lost to since September 7, 2003. The other two came earlier this year. In the drubbing of the Dolphins and the squeaker over the Chargers, the Patriots won with total team efforts. In them, Brady basically put up the same stat line - 19 completions, 150 yards passing (153, 159), with one TD and no picks. In other words, he wasn't leading the charge. He wasn't doing anything detrimental, but he wasn't leading the charge. Brady has hardly been himself this season, but in each game, he'll put it together for one series, which makes his numbers look good. In games where you get blocked field goals, TAINTS, or the other team forgets to play to the whistle, it's no big deal. When Peyton Hillis won't stop running over defenders though, it's a different story. The Pats need Brady to get back in top form, or they may have to draft a legit QB of the future very soon.
- I love that Microsoft Phone ad. "Really?!?"
- Random idea the other day - who says no first to a Torii Hunter for Jacoby Ellsbury and Jonathan Papelbon swap, the Sox or the Halos? Bring on the Hot Stove.

LCS Preview

2010-10-15T08:27:00.002-06:00

I was too tired when I got home last night, and am about to head out for the weekend. So here it is - the short, short version.

C.J. Wilson walked the most batters in the AL this year, and was only second in the Majors behind Jonathan Sanchez. The Yankees draw a lot of walks. I realize he just shut down the Rays, another team that draws a lot of walks, but the Yanks also hit lefties much better than the Rays did this season (.790 OPS compared to .733 for Tampa). Expect the Yanks to take Game One. Tommy Hunter was great at home this year, and had even splits against teams below and above .500, but he is still the inferior pitcher in his matchup against Phil Hughes. Expect perhaps not a pitchers duel, but a close game, and the Yanks to prevail.

In all, I see the Rangers winning only Cliff Lee's start, and for this series to end in New York. Yankees in five.

The Giants scored 11 runs in four games. Two were directly attributable to umpire error (Buster Posey's "steal" in game one and the ump completely whiffing on Omar Infante's foot being on the second base bag in game four) and two were directly attributable to Brooks Conrad's shoddy defense. Unfortunately for San Fran, the umpire calls won't go in their favor 100% of the time and Brooks Conrad was not traded to Philly in the last couple of days. Now, one could make the argument that late in games, Bruce Bochy willingly sacrificed some offense by subbing out Pat Burrell for Nate Schierholtz and Aubrey Huff for Travis Ishikawa. The Giants may find themselves needing that offense in this series, and may keep those two bats in the lineup all game, which could lead to more runs on the board for San Fran. But it will also greatly increase the chance that they make defensive miscues, making the net effect a wash. Phillies in five.

With the two series' likely to end early, expect a lot of media blather to revolve around the off-days between the LCS and the World Series. I'll be back with a more in-depth preview for the first Fall Classic rematch since the Yankees beat the Los Angeles Dodgers back-to-back in '77 and '78.

Three Aces, Two Fives & A Four

2010-10-05T22:39:00.002-06:00

To gear up for the season, the Denver Nuggets have been once again running ads with the tag line "Can You Feel It?" And while Nuggets basketball is probably dead in the water once again, as the question of trading of Carmelo Anthony seems to have shifted from "if" to "when," I am definitely feeling the MLB playoffs. While last year's World Series participants made it back this season, the only other returning team from last October's scrum are the Minnesota Twins. And even if the Fall Classic should end in a rematch of last year, that would be alright, as it was a highly entertaining one.

I will do a full recap as to how my prognostications went overall, but it should be noted that I nailed five of the eight playoff participants this season, missing only Cincinnati, San Francisco and Tampa Bay (you could also demerit me for the fact that I had the Yankees as the AL East champ rather than the Wild Card team, but seeing as how that race went down to the last day of the season, that seems like it'd be splitting hairs). Back in April, I refrained from making postseason predictions, since it's such a crapshoot, and I will continue that trend here by simply going round by round for the playoffs.

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Looking at Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Standings, this is the second-closest series in terms of W3 and L3 (the closest, surprisingly, is Cincinnati-Philadelphia), but these two teams are really mirror images of each other. Both have a left-handed ace, both have good but not great rotations, both teams have an outstanding bullpen, both teams run well and flash good leather, both teams have a somewhat top-heavy lineup and both teams have a MVP candidate who was banged up down the stretch.

The key to this series very well may be James Shields. Since his seemingly breakthrough season of 2008, Shields has been a bit perplexing. On the plus side, his strikeout rate has improved dramatically, particularly this season, as his K/9 has jumped from 6.7 in '08, to 6.8 last year and then a big jump to 8.3 this season. At the same time, his walk rate and hit rate have both increased. Shields has never been a ground ball pitcher, and while his GB/FB ratio has decreased from .87 in '08 to .70 this year, and he led the AL in home runs allowed, was his performance entirely his fault? No doubt where there's smoke there's fire, but Shields' BABIP against this season was .344. Overall, the Rays BABIP was .282, a 62 point difference. Shields put less balls in play this season, but the ones that were put in play fell with greater regularity. Is that a fluke, or was Shields just that hittable? The answer to this question could be the key to the series. By FanGraphs' WAR, the Rangers have a clear edge in the pitching matchups - more than 2 wins difference in four of the five potential matchups. As good as David Price is, asking him to beat Cliff Lee twice is a tall task. Therefore, the rest of the Rays rotation will have to pick up the slack. Matt Garza is always solid, and you never know when he has a gem in him, as evidenced by this year's no-hitter or his dominating wins in the 2008 ALCS vs. the Red Sox (2 runs allowed in 13 innings pitched). Wade Davis has the luxury of pitching in the only equal matchup of the series vs. Tommy Hunter (0.8 fWAR for Davis, 0.7 for Hunter). That leaves Shields. He is at a disadvantage in both his matchup, and the Rays stand a good chance at being down 1-0 in the series when he walks to the hill Thursday afternoon.

Even in the Lee vs. Price matchup, I look for this series to be high scoring, and highly entertaining. I say matchup instead of matchups because despite the similarities between these two teams, I don't expect this series to go the full five games. Rangers in four.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Since the advent of Wild Card play in 1995, more of the first-round series' have ended in a sweep than anything else, and the only year that did not have a first round sweep was 2003. In two of the last three years, this has drawn even more attention, as in those seasons three of the four first-round matchups ended in sweeps, and there hasn't been a five-game series since the Yankees took the Angels to the limit. This season will be a lot more entertaining, but there will still be one sweep, and it will be in this series.

By Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Standings W3 and L3 numbers, this is the closest series, as the Phillies' W3-L3 is 89.6-72.6, while the Reds' marks are 88.8-73.2, less than a win's difference. While the Phillies won 97 games, BP shows that seven of those wins were lucky or undeserving. So on the surface, this would seem to be an intriguing matchup. After all, Cincy has arguably the game's best offense - the Reds rank first in the Majors in team MLVr and first in the NL in team wOBA, and MVP candidate Joey Votto actually performed better on the road than at home this season. But looking a little closer at Philly's starting pitching, and the disparity grows much wider:

Philly Starters..........GS...IP......ERA
Halladay-Oswalt-Hamels...78...541.....2.74
Everyone Else............84...494.3...4.62

The "Everyone Else" includes 31 starts from Kyle Kendrick, 28 from Joe Blanton, 19 from Jamie Moyer, 3 from JA Happ, 2 from Vance Worley and 1 from Nelson Figueroa, none of whom are likely to take the mound in the Division Series. But what about Philly's pen? Well, despite its reputation, it actually ranked 12th among WXRL, four spots ahead of Cincy. And while there's an argument that a full season of Aroldis Chapman would even the bullpens out a bit, it wouldn't do anything more than bring the respective bullpens to a draw. And while the Reds offense is fearsome, the Phillies aren't exactly slouches, and they will get to play the first two in Citizens Bank Park, where they won 54 of 84 games this season (only the Atlanta Braves had more home wins than Philly in 2010). Phillies in three.

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins

The Twins are the Energizer Rabbit of Major League Baseball. They lose their closer before Opening Day, and it doesn't slow them down, their WXRL of 9.162 was sixth best in the Majors this season. They lose Justin Morneau, one of their three superstars who was leading them in OBP (among other things) in early July, and then string together their best month of OBP of the season that month (.367 as a team). The team did start to wear down offensively in September, but Joe Mauer and Jim Thome both missed time. Assuming Mauer and Thome are back in form for the postseason, the offense, may be able to convert hits into runs. Last postseason, against these same Yankees, the Twinkies piled up 29 hits in three games, but they only translated into six runs. This season, the team OBP has actually been slightly worse overall, but that is due mostly to the fact that Joe Mauer "cooled" off from his historic .444 mark of 2009 to a less world-beating .402 this season. Looking at the whole team though, it can be shown that the gaps have narrowed. Last postseason, the Twins' six and seven-hole hitters (Delmon Young in the six, Brendan Harris and Carlos Gomez in the seven) who had OBP's of .310 or less. Those two spots in the order accounted for 15 runners left on base in the three games, and none were more notable than the failed top of the 11th rally in game two, when Young came up with the bases loaded and no outs, and lined out to first on the first pitch he saw. On the next pitch, Gomez grounded out 3-2, and Harris (who had subbed in to the eight hole that night) popped a fly ball to center, killing the rally. Four pitches later, Mark Teixeira would slam a walk-off homer, and the Twins wouldn't recover. This season, Young's play has improved, and the Twins don't have a qualifying hitter with an OBP under .320. This better balance should lead to base runners converting into runs scored more frequently.

The other wrinkle in this series is how the Yankees plan to use their starters. The plan of bringing CC Sabathia back on three days rest for game four seems shortsighted at best. Nick Blackburn, the Twins' scheduled game four starter, was likely to be on the short end of the matchup whether it was AJ Burnett or Sabathia pitching, but moving Sabathia to game four means that Pettitte would have to pitch game five, where he will be a severe underdog against Francisco Liriano. Pettitte is normally cool under pressure in the playoffs, but to say he limped to the finish line this season is a bit of an understatement. He has only three appearances since July 18, and in them he had a 6.75 ERA in 13.1 innings pitched. Pettitte was enjoying a good season before his injury, but Liriano has been otherworldly this year.

I look for the whole team to win every game of this series, with Joe Girardi's Sabathia decision, and not an umpire's blown call, being the issue talked about throughout the hot stove season. Twins in five.

Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants

As much as the Texas-Tampa series could hinge on James Shields' performance, the Atlanta-San Francisco series most definitely is riding on Derek Lowe's shoulders. This is likely music to Giants' fans ears, but they shouldn't be so quick to count their chickens. Over his career, Derek Lowe has made a habit of coming up big when it matters. He earned the win in all three series clinchers for the 2004 Boston Red Sox, pitching perhaps the greatest game in Red Sox history - game seven against the Yankees - allowing just one hit and one run across six innings. This would be remarkable in and of itself; that he did it on two days rest is phenomenal. In all, Lowe has appeared in the postseason 21 times - 17 times for the Sox and four times for the Dodgers. In these games, he has an ERA of 3.33 and a WHIP of 1.17. In short, Lowe is no slouch. Is he Tim Lincecum? Of course not. But the gap isn't as large as one might think. Lincecum's xFIP of 3.21 is better than Lowe's 3.65, but Lowe's mark isn't shabby. It was good for 15th this year among qualifying pitchers, ahead of Cy Young candidates like Ubaldo Jimenez, CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander. In fact, Lowe's mark tops the Braves' list, and is the second best mark among starters in the series. Here's how games two and three stack up:

Game 2: Tommy Hanson (4.04 xFIP) vs. Matt Cain (4.19)
Game 3: Tim Hudson (3.87) vs. Jonathan Sanchez (4.11)

Much is made of the Giants' vaunted rotation, but while they get the publicity, the Braves' trio is just as good, if not better, as a whole.

For the season, the Braves' had a better OBP than did the Giants, but that should even out due to the loss of both Chipper Jones and Martin Prado for Atlanta. However, that doesn't suddenly mean the Braves have no hitting. Jason Heyward, Brian McCann and Derrek Lee still form a very good middle of the order, and Nate McLouth came back in September looking very much like he did in 2009, hitting .273 with an .887 OPS for September/October. Add a dash of Omar Infante here, some clutch pinch-hitting from Eric Hinske there (he hit .298, with a .985 OPS in 54 plate appearances as a pinch-hitter this season) and you have the makings of an offense that Bobby Cox can wring out enough runs from to win.

In the other dugout, the Giants have a lot more decisions to make. Do they carry Aaron Rowand? What about Travis Ishikawa and Nate Schierholtz? The Giants need their defense, but the Braves have two lefty-killers for late in the game in Billy Wagner (.071 AVG allowed this season vs. lefties) and Jonny Venters (.198). Bruce Bochy has, by and large, done a good job this season. But the more decisions he has to make, the higher the probability of him screwing up a decision. This series features the biggest managerial mismatch of the first round, and at some point a Bochy decision is likely to cost the Giants a game.

These teams both feature good bullpens, good home field advantages, mediocre offenses and poor running games. The Giants flash the leather better than do the Braves, but with guys like Ishikawa and Schierholtz likely relegated to the bench in the vain search for more offense, the Giants are likely to give up that edge. No matter the outcome, this series is going to be a lot closer than the people penciling in a Giants sweep are ready to see. Braves in five.

So there you go - one series dominated by three aces, two series' that will go the distance, and a very entertaining four-game set for good measure. This scenario played out one other time, in 2002. That postseason ended with the first-ever World Series matchup of two Wild Card teams, with the Angels finally getting their championship after more than 40 years. We can only hope that this year's Fall Classic provides as much excitement.

Where You Been? / NFL 2010

2010-09-12T09:04:00.003-06:00

So it's been awhile since I posted to the blog. Or tweeted for that matter. There are a few reasons for this. First, and most important, after I made my MLB picks, my wife needed my attention. She was in her last 2 months of pregnancy, and not only did she require more attention, but we also started taking our baby preparation classes. And since our baby was born, I've been spending every second possible with him. In addition, I've added new responsibilities at work. Combine the two, and that doesn't leave much time for blogging. I even contemplated not making my NFL picks this year. I've been making them since as far back as I can remember. I used to do them by hand, picking every game for every team on sheet after sheet of paper from my father's yellow pads. These days, I keep them on an Excel spreadsheet. I managed to lose my last file when I bought my new laptop back in 2005, but I have 2006-2010 now saved in the same spreadsheet. It's a weird thing to take pride in, but I take pride in it nonetheless. I may not always be right, but I'm always invested. So even though I didn't read the SI preview issue this year, and only made it 2/3 through the Football Outsiders Almanac, here are my 2010 NFL picks. For the record, I did have New Orleans beating Minnesota Thursday night, but if you don't believe me, I'll understand. We'll go by division, with playoff results at the end.

AFC
AFC EAST
1. Miami Dolphins, 11-5, 3rd in AFC, 5th in NFL
Overview: The Dolphins are quietly lurking down south, and are ready to pounce this year. They will tie with New England, but win the division thanks to a 5-1 division record.
Biggest Win (regular season only): Week 14, @NYJ: The 8-4 Dolphins roll into the (New) Meadowlands and defeat the 9-3 Jets, starting the Jets on an end of season slump that will spiral them out of the playoffs, while giving the Dolphins the divisional record they need to trump the Pats.

2. New England Patriots, 11-5, 6th, 9th
Overview: I'm going to go against the grain here and say that the Pats defense will be a pleasant surprise, while the offense will be a bit of a let down. Wes Welker has been healthy in preseason, but to expect him to go all year without any knee problems would be naive. After him, the Pats have Moss, who will be double-teamed, and rookies. Tom Brady can only do so much.
Biggest Wins: Week 6, vs. BAL, Week 11, vs. IND: The Pats may not be Super Bowl contenders this year, but they will be get retribution for their 2 most embarrassing losses of 2009 (though Indy will once again have the last laugh in the playoffs).

3. New York Jets, 10-6, 7th, 11th
Overview: The Jets have been riding high all offseason, but they have been remarkably fortunate with injuries on their offensive line, it will take Revis awhile to work back into game shape, and their schedule is not as cupcake-laden as it was last year.
Biggest Win: Week 8, vs. GB: Coming out of their bye, Gang Green punishes Aaron Rodgers & Co., whose passing game will have a tough time on Revis Island. This game sets the Jets on a 6-game winning streak.

4. Buffalo Bills, 3-13, 15th, 30th
Overview: There isn't much good to say, ever, about the Bills.
Biggest Win: Week 17, at NYJ: The one silver lining in the Bills season will be playing spoiler. With this win, they will knock the Jets out of the playoffs.

AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens, 12-4, 2nd, 4th
Overview: The additions at wide receiver will be enough to turn Flacco into a top 10 QB, and Baltimore will finally triumph in the hotly contested AFC North.
Biggest Win: Week 13, vs. PIT: This win gives them the season sweep of Pittsburgh, and vaults them to the division title, as neither Baltimore or Pittsburgh will lose a game from Week 14-17.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers, 11-5, 5th, 6th
Overview: Big Ben will come back to a 2-2 team, and Dennis Dixon will become the quarterback of the future in what will be Big Ben's last season in black and gold.
Biggest Win: Week 1, vs. ATL: The game that proves where Dixon proves he has what it takes to be a quarterback in the National Football League.

3. Cincinnati Bengals, 7-9, 10th, 19th
Overview: A much tougher schedule that includes NE, Atlanta, Miami, Indy, the Jets, New Orleans and San Diego for outside of the division foes (along with sleeper Tampa Bay) conspire to ruin Cincy's shot at a second straight playoff season.
Biggest Win: Week 13, vs. NO: Cincy shows that they're not a bad team, just one with the odds stacked against them.

4. Cleveland Browns, 5-11, 13th, 27th
Overview: Same old Browns - any progress they made in the last few weeks of '09 will ultimately be cancelled out by the unfortunate signing of Jake Delhomme.
Biggest Win: Week 4, vs. CIN: The Browns deal the Bengals an early season blow, knocking the Bengals down to 2-2, in a season where they need every win they can get.

AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts, 13-1, 1st, 1st
Overview: The Colts are once again the best team in football during the regular season, but this season, they will be the best in the playoffs as well. Donald Brown eventually takes over for a too-concussed Joseph Addai, and provides just enough ground game to keep defenses honest. They will face a stern test from the Ravens in the AFC Championship game, until Manning remembers the Ravens have no secondary, and then he will feast.
Biggest Win: Week 13, vs. DAL: Indy deals Dallas it's seventh loss, effectively knocking them to the bottom of the playoff picture in the NFC. After this game, Indy will be 10-2, and have a leg up on the rest of the AFC for home-field advantage.

2. Tennessee Titans, 9-7, 9th, 15th
Overview: The Titans will be good, but not good enough, and will have a tough time coming back in games when they face an early deficit.
Biggest Win: Week 14, vs. IND: Beating Indy is always huge, and the win vaults the Titans to 8-5, giving them a legit shot at the playoffs, which unfortunately they will not take advantage of, losing to KC and Indy in the final two weeks of the season.

3. Houston Texans, 7-9, 11th, 21st
Overview: Consider me officially off of the Texans bandwagon for 2010.
Biggest Win: Week 3, vs. DAL: Houston takes a 2-1 lead in the new Battle for Texas.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars, 2-14, 16th, 31st
Overview: The only team worse than the Jags will be Seattle, but while Seattle is rebuilding, the Jags fashion themselves as dark horse contenders. They won't be.
Biggest Win: Week 6, vs. TEN: Their only AFC South win of 2010.

AFC WEST
1. Kansas City Chiefs, 10-6, 4th, 10th
Overview: The Chiefs combine stellar number options on offense (RB Jamaal Charles & WR Dwayne Bowe) with an easy schedule and a crappy division to vault themselves back into the playoffs for the first time since 2006.
Biggest Win: Week 14, at SD: This huge win in San Diego gives the Chiefs the season sweep and the edge in the tiebreaker with the lightning bolts.

2. San Diego Chargers, 10-6, 8th, 12th
Overview: The Chargers have made the playoffs in four straight years, and five of the last six, yet they are not a dynasty, and have just lost arguably the best player in franchise history. The odds say it's time for them to miss the playoffs.
Biggest Win: Week 7, vs. NE: Teetering at 3-3, this win over the always-tough-for-them Patriots will keep hope alive.

3. Oakland Raiders, 6-10, 12th, 24th
Overview: This is the make or break year for Jason Campbell. Final result: break. The Raiders only do 1 win better than last season.
Biggest Win: Week 5, vs. SD: The win pushes Oakland to a respectable 2-3, while it pushes the needle to high alert for the Chargers, who will have now lost to division foes KC and Oakland in the first five weeks.

4. Denver Broncos, 4-12, 14th, 28th
Overview: This is already shaping up to be a lost season for the Broncos, who were going to have be running on all cylinders to combats their difficult schedule.
Biggest Win: Week 10, vs. KC: Coming off their bye, the Broncos net their third, and penultimate, win of the season in Tim Tebow's first start.

NFC
NFC EAST
1. Washington Redskins, 11-5, 3rd, 7th
Overview: For one year, everything will go right in Washington, who will only learn of Mike Shanahan's shortcut, band-aid ways in 2011. Or 2012, since there will be no 2011 season.
Biggest Wins: Week 4, @ PHI, Week 10, vs. PHI: Donovan McNabb wins.

2. New York Giants, 9-7, 6th, 14th
Overview: The G-Men rebound from a lackluster year and sneak back into the playoffs.
Biggest Win: Week 17, at WAS: The Giants get the win that vaults them into the playoffs over an already clinched Washington, who rests most of their starters, including McNabb.

3. Dallas Cowboys, 8-8, 7th, 16th
Overview: The Cowboys are overrated.
Biggest Win: Week 14, vs. PHI: After two straight losses to New Orleans and Indy, the Cowboys keep their fading playoff hopes alive.

4. Philadelphia Eagles, 8-8, 8th, 17th
Overview: The Eagles will be back in the NFL's next season, as their young core of Kolb, McCoy, Jackson, Macklin and Celek grow together, but they will not have the wherewithal or consistency to survive the tough NFC East this season.
Biggest Wins: Week 1, vs. GB, Week 6, vs. ATL: The Eagles give their fans hope by showing they have what it takes to beat the conference's elite.

NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers, 12-4, 1st, 2nd
Overview: The NFC's best regular season team will ride a strong offense all the way to a bye week, where they will unfortunately then run into the New Orleans Saints, who will have just enough magic to out-gun the Packers and end their season too soon.
Biggest Wins: Week 7, vs. MIN, Week 11, @ MIN: After these two games, Aaron Rodgers will be able to finally fling the Favre monkey from his back.

2. Chicago Bears, 7-9, 11th, 22nd
Overview: I just don't see it. Minor improvements in the offense will be cancelled out by more cracks in the defense, and when the chips are down, you don't want Jay Cutler under center.
Biggest Win: Week 10, vs. MIN: The Vikings come into this one with a 3-5 record and Green Bay the week after. In other words, it's a must-win for Minnesota, but they won't get it, as Brian Urlacher mercifully ends Brett Favre's career by snapping his ankle in half.

3. Detroit Lions, 6-10, 13th, 25th
Overview: The Lions start travelling the long road back to respectability.
Biggest Win: Week 6, @NYG: Matthew Stafford proves he belongs, and just in time, as it is just Detroit's second win of the season, and heading into the bye week, Stafford will need the win to save his job.

4. Minnesota Vikings, 5-11, 14th, 26th
Overview: That's right, last place. Favre will not play the whole season, and the rest of the Vikings will be too shell shocked to compete. Also, Adrian Peterson will flirt with the all-time fumble record.
Biggest Win: Week 6, vs. DAL: The win moves Minnesota to 2-3 on the season, giving fans hope that Favre can resurrect them once more. He won't.

NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta Falcons, 12-4, 2nd, 3rd
Overview: I've never hated a pick more. I hate BC, and therefore I hate Matt Ryan, but this is their Milhouse Van Houten year. IE, everything's coming up Falcons!
Biggest Win: Week 16, vs. NO: The 10-4 Falcons face off against the 10-4 Saints, with the Falcons winning the game, sweeping the season series and winning the division in the process. It will also give them the confidence they need to ultimately beat New Orleans in the NFC Championship game.

2. New Orleans Saints, 11-5, 5th, 8th
Overview: While the Saints won't win the division, they will be playoff bound in consecutive seasons for just the second time in franchise history (1990-1992 being the other time).
Biggest Win: Week 8, vs. PIT: The Saints prove their Super Bowl win wasn't a fluke by knocking off perennial contender Pittsburgh.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8-8, 9th, 18th
Overview: Josh Freeman and Raheem Morris shut up their critics with a respectable season. They will go 0-4 against the better AFC, but will hold their own within their own conference.
Biggest Win: Week 6, vs. NO: The Bucs announce their rebirth and expose some chinks in the Super Bowl champs armor at the same time.

4. Carolina Panthers, 3-13, 15th, 29th
Overview: This will be John Fox's last year with the Panthers, who will lose their first five games (with Matt Moore as QB) and their last five (with Jimmy Clausen as QB).
Biggest Win: Week 7, vs. SF: The Panthers get their first win of the year, while knocking San Fran back to earth.

NFC WEST
1. San Francisco, 9-7, 4th, 13th
Overview: The Niners are this year's sexy pick. I'm only buying them in the sense that the rest of this division is abominable.
Biggest Win: Week 17 vs. ARI: The Niners will come in at 8-7, the Cardinals 7-8. But with the Cardinals having won the first matchup, an Arizona win would give them the tiebreaker and the division title. The Niners will dig deep and come up with the win that gives them their first playoff berth since 2002.

2. Arizona Cardinals, 7-9, 10th, 20th
Overview: The Cardinals were already in for a down season without Kurt Warner, and that was before they realized that their best option at QB was Derek Anderson.
Biggest Win: Week 12, vs. SF: The win puts Arizona at 4-7 and will be the first win in a four game winning streak that will bring them back to .500 and within hailing distance of San Fran, with a Week 17 matchup in sight. Unfortunately, they will lose that matchup and find themselves out of the playoffs.

3. St. Louis Rams, 7-9, 12th, 23rd
Overview: Sam Bradford justifies his selection over Detroit's Suh, and the Rams make the run at respectability that some predicted would happen last year.
Biggest Win: Week 1, vs. ARI: Bradford shows right off the bat that 2010 is the dawn of a new era of Rams football.

4. Seattle Seahawks, 1-15, 16th, 32nd
Overview: I saved the worst for last. Wait, that's not how that goes. In any case, Pete Carroll is rebuilding, and will have the cache to let the 'Hawks take their lumps this year, just as long as it gets them Jake Locker next year.
Biggest Win: Week 13, vs. CAR: This one's by default, since it's their only win.

AFC PLAYOFFS
#6 New England defeats #3 Miami
#5 Pittsburgh defeats #4 Kansas City

#1 Indianapolis defeats #6 New England
#2 Baltimore defeats #5 Pittsburgh

#1 Indianapolis defeats #2 Baltimore

NFC PLAYOFFS
#3 Washington defeats #6 New York Giants
#5 New Orleans defeats #4 San Francisco

#5 New Orleans defeats #1 Green Bay
#2 Atlanta defeats #3 Washington

#2 Atlanta defeats #5 New Orleans

SUPER BOWL XLV
Indianapolis 27 - Atlanta 21
MVP Peyton Manning

Manning gets his second Super Bowl win a year later than everyone though he would, beating an Atlanta team that is just happy to be there (also, did you really think I'd pick a BC-led team to win the whole enchilada? Estan loco.).

MLB 2010, Part Two, MLB From A-Z

2010-03-24T21:16:00.006-06:00

Baseball season is almost upon us once again.  To celebrate, let's run through the 2010 Major League Baseball season from A-Z.  Apologies up front for the different fonts and sizes, the computer is not cooperating tonight.

A is for Atlanta, who will make it back to the playoffs this season for the first time since 2005. They may not have the horses to win the whole thing, but one last hurrah from Chipper, the emergence of Jason Heyward and bounce back years from Nate McLouth and Derek Lowe will offset the loss of Javier Vazquez and the likely regression coming from Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson. And though they sort of botched the Rafael Soriano situation, the front line of their bullpen - if healthy - should still be more than solid.

B is for Borbon, as in Julio Borbon. Called up to the Majors last June, and for good last August, Borbon hit leadoff for the Rangers in 36 of their last 53 games. In most of those games, however, he either played left field or DH. Now, with Marlon Byrd off to Chicago, Borbon will be asked to hit lead off and play center. His ability to do that will go a long way towards determining how successful the Rangers are in 2010.

C is for Crisi-tunity! Homer Simpson coined this phrase when his daughter Lisa explained to her father that the Chinese believe use the same word for both crisis and opportunity. Major League Baseball seemingly has a crisis on their hands in the franchises of Kansas City and Pittsburgh. The Royals haven't made the playoffs since 1985 and the Pirates since 1992. The league has taken to exploring options this offseason to change competitive balance, but in my opinion, they are missing the boat. For far too long, teams like KC, Pittsburgh, Minnesota and Florida, among others, have treaded water because financially they knew that MLB's revenue sharing system would be the life preserver that would help them safely reach shore. The Pirates payroll has not been over $50 million since 2003, and KC didn't top $50 million for the first time until 2007. What's more, when KC does spend money, they're not spending it on the right players (see Guillen, Jose). I for one would like to see what would happen if that revenue sharing life preserver was ripped from their clutches. Without revenue sharing, these clubs would have to make a more honest effort to win or risk losing their fans forever. We know Pittsburgh will support a winner, and the Pirates used to have a tradition of excellence. I believe in the Royals and the fans of Kansas City as well, but the Royals tradition is not as storied as the Pirates or other long-standing teams. Yes, the boys in powder blue won the World Series in '85, but they have only been in KC since 1969, and they have only made the playoffs seven times in that time span. Perhaps another city would do a better job with the Royals than would KC. But no matter what the answers are, it's clear that MLB should start asking more questions.

D is for DeRosa, as in Mark DeRosa. He was the Giants' big offseason acquisition...and therein lies the problem. The Giants are still going to struggle to score runs. They just can't get out of their own way. They man who finished second on their team in OBP, Fred Lewis, is somehow no better than third at any spot on their depth chart, and they are going to play the human garbage disposal, aka Bengie Molina, instead of Buster Posey. I have them dropping from 8th overall in MLB last year to 14th this year.

E is for Evan, as in Evan Longoria. How many players are All-Stars and get MVP votes each of their first two years in the Majors? Not many. Longoria whacked 30+ homers for the first time in his career last year, and added his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards, and I'm sure they both look nice next to his Rookie of the Year trophy. With Carl Crawford potentially leaving after this season, and rumors about the Rays drastically cutting payroll next year as well, the pressure is on Longoria to put the Rays back in the playoffs in the hyper-competitive AL East.

F is for Fat Guys. The game is just a lot more fun with fat guys in it. Guys like Carlos Lee, Prince Fielder, Molina and Pablo Sandoval remind us all of a simpler time, when players didn't train year round and pizza and gummi bears were still plentiful in the clubhouse. Nowadays, agents have their own training facilities and everyone has their own specialized diets. God bless you, fat men (even if, like Molina, you suck). Who's your favorite fat guy?

G is for Gonzalez. Whether it's Adrian, Alex, Carlos, Gio or Mike, it seems like Gonzalez's are everywhere these days. We have Gonzalez's who manage (Fredi) and even with two of the most famous Gonzalez's (Juan and Luis) retired, there are still so many Gonzalez's that we are now importing them to Japan (i.e. Edgar)! As the Latinification of the game continues unabated, names like "Gonzalez," "Martinez" and "Rodriguez" are becoming just as prevalent as "Smith" and "Jones." And frankly, it's a beautiful thing.

H is for Hanley, as in Hanley Ramirez, the most under appreciated player in the game. Not many players can put up a 20-20 (homers and steals) season and hit .300, all while playing the toughest position on the field in shortstop. But Ramirez has done it three seasons in a row, and one of them was actually a 30-30 season. The knock on Ramirez used to be his defense, but he has improved dramatically there as well. In 2007, his UZR was -19.2, but in 'o8 he posted a basically even mark of -0.7, and followed that up last year with a -0.3. He may never be Ozzie Smith with the glove, but he has done enough to quell rumors of a position switch. When MVP voters once again get bored with voting for Albert Pujols, let's hope they turn to Hanley.

I is for Igloo, which is what the new Target Field in Minnesota might end up being nicknamed. Minneapolis is now the northernmost city (by latitude) to have an open-air-only ballpark. Their average April temperatures range from a low of 36 degrees to a high of 57, which is remarkably similar to Denver's April averages of 34 and 60. And while the Rockies definitely have to be creative to bring the crowds out in April, at least Rockies fans, and Colorado sports fans in general, are used to games outdoors. In Minnesota, everything is played indoors, and the Twins could be in for a rude awakening. For their sake, let's hope I'm wrong.

J is for Jeff, as in Jeff Moorad, who has to be one of the most fascinating men in the game today. He went from being a super-agent that negotiated $100 million-plus deals for the likes of Manny Ramirez, to the opposite side of the table as part-owner of the Diamondbacks, and now he has hopped teams within the team to the San Diego Padres. We need to know more about how this was possible.

K is for Kemp, as in Matt Kemp. With Manny Ramirez seemingly in decline, guys like Andre Ethier, James Loney, Russell Martin and Chad Billinglsey seemingly already hitting or at their peaks, and a future leader in Clayton Kershaw maybe not ready to be "the guy," the onus on the Dodgers now falls squarely on Kemp. Unfortunately for Dodgers fans, Kemp probably isn't up to that challenge. If you could date Rihanna, you probably wouldn't be up for it either...

L is for Lackey, as in John Lackey, the Red Sox's newest toy. Will he butt heads with fellow Texan Josh Beckett, or will they get along like the Texas tough boys that they are? And is Lackey enough to make Boston's new pitching and defense plan succeed? Probably, as long as he stays on the field.

M is for Mets, the one team that makes the Giants look like a bunch of Mensa scholars. This is a team, who even with Johan Santana and Frankie Rodriguez, managed to only have the 21st best ERA in the Majors last year, yet decided that heading into this season the only pitcher they needed to acquire was Fernando Nieve. Just...wow.

N is for Nyjer, as in Nyjer Morgan. In the past three seasons, the Nats center fielder of the "future" went from being Lastings Milledge, to Elijah Dukes, to Morgan. How long can Morgan hold the mantle before the Nats find another "solution?" Only time will tell. In the interim, Morgan figures to steal a boatload of bases.

O is for One hundred and two, which will be the number of seasons since the Cubs have won a World Series when they fail to do so once again this year. Hitler was right, the Cubs have quite the history of sucking!

P is for Prospects, of whom there will be many this season. Aside from Heyward and Stephen Strasburg, I am looking forward to seeing how Neftali Feliz and Justin Smoak can contribute to the Rangers chase, how Brian Matusz and Wade Davis handle the AL Beast. I am looking forward to guys like Junichi Tazawa and Eric Young, Jr. vying for permanent roles in the Majors, and to see if Austin Jackson can prove the Yankees wrong, if Andrew McCutchen is really the savior that Pittsburgh needs and if Mat Latos can be San Diego's replacement for Jake Peavy. And I'm just as excited to see what year two brings for guys like David Price (well, his second full year), Matt Wieters and Gordon Beckham. But most importantly, I'm looking forward to the next great unknown, the next big surprise, the next guy who gets called up as an injury replacement and never looks back. That's what makes baseball so great.

Q is for Quentin, as in Carlos Quentin. Two years ago, Quentin was busy mashing. He knocked 36 homers, and he wasn't a US Cellular mirage, as his .950 road OPS was more than comparable to his .979 home OPS in the cozy confines of the Cell. His performance paced the White Sox into the postseason, and he finished 5th in the MVP vote. Last year was essentially a lost year for Quentin, as injuries held him to 99 games and a disappointing .456 SLG. Unsurprisingly, the White Sox struggled to replace his bat in the lineup. Entering his age 27 season, this will be Quentin's defining season. Can he finally shake the whispers that he's too fragile, or will he succumb to injury once again (he has never played more than 130 games in any of his four big-league seasons)? South Siders are hoping for the former.

R is for Roy, as in Roy Halladay. If a pitcher can put a 3.19 ERA or better in four of the last five seasons in the American Beast, then what is he capable of in the National League? Unfortunately, it seems difficult to imagine that he could do that much better, and the projections bear that out. In fact, when one considers how dominating Cliff Lee was last year for Philly, Halladay will be hard pressed to anything other than equal that production. If he does so, the Phils will get a boost, as Halladay could make close to three times the number of starts for Philly than Lee did last season. But that boost will likely be less than Philly fans are anticipating.

S is for Seattle. The Mariners have been getting tons of hype heading into this season, but I'm not totally buying it. While some may say their Phthagorean W-L of 75-87 is an outlier because of their outstanding defense, it still shows how much trouble the M's had scoring runs last season. And despite the additions of Chone Figgins and Milton Bradley, they will struggle once again. Certainly, it would be hard to post worse offensive numbers than Wladimir Balentien and Yuniesky Betancourt, two guys who seemingly posted one point of OPS for each letter in their names. But then again, Jack Wilson is not a paragon of offensive production, swapping out Russell Branyan for Casey Kotchman is an offensive downgrade and this team is still going to hand a lot of important AB's to Ken Griffey, Jr. Also, Bradley hasn't played 130 or more games since 2004. Figgins should definitely help by setting the table, but the Mariners may struggle to drive him in once he gets there.

T is for Tulowitzki, as in Troy Tulowitzki. Tulowitzki is one big question away from superduper-stardom - can he get out of the gate strong? He is yet to have even a marginally good April, as his April OPS of .617 is more than 100 points lower than his OPS in any other month, and is more than 200 points lower than his career OPS. His idol, Derek Jeter, is so consistent, that his monthly OPS marks fall into a 62-point range. Tulowitzki's fall into a 312 point range. If he can change that, he'll pick up some more MVP votes, and will certainly make the Rockies a World Series contender.

U is for Upton's, as in B.J. and Justin. They are two of the most dynamic players in the game, although little brother seems as though he's well on his way to upstaging his big brother. Three of Justin's similar batters through age 21 are Hall of Famers - Hank Aaron, Sam Crawford and Willie Mays - and three others either should be or may be some day, in Miguel Cabrera, Juan Gonzalez and Ron Santo. Expect big things in his age 22 season. Meanwhile, B.J. is simply trying to get his career on track, finally. He has had two down years after his seeming-breakout of 2007, and to date, the only category in which he has led the league is caught stealing. Hopefully that will change.

V is for Votto, as in Joey Votto. Votto may not be the absolute key to the Reds success, as they have so many talented young players, but he is certainly one of their vital cogs. Votto had some personal issues last season, and it would be nice to see him overcome those this season.

W is for Wood, as in Brandon Wood. Like BJ Upton, Wood was once an uber-hyped prospect. Unlike Upton, Wood has never been given an extended chance at flashing that potential...until now. The Angels are banking that Wood can effectively replace Chone Figgins in the lineup, albeit in a different fashion. If Wood is able to replace him both offensively and defensively, it will go a long way towards keeping the Halo's in contention in 2010.

X is for X marks the spot. Here are my regular season predictions for 2010. I am going to refrain from making postseason predictions, because not only are they pointless, but they detract from my enjoyment of the season., as I root to be right rather than just enjoying the ride. When making these predictions, I like to look at league strength. After posting an average record of 82.6-79.4 in 2008, the American League dropped down more than one-half win to 81.9-80.1 last season. I continued that downward trend, giving AL teams an average record of 81.5-80.5, with the NL average being almost exactly opposite at 80.6-81.4.

Rank...Team...Record

NYY...97-65 - AL East champion
BOS...96-66 - AL Wild Card
PHI...95-67 - NL East champion
COL...94-68 - NL West champion
STL...92-70 - NL Central champion
TB...91-71
TEX...89-73 - AL West champion
ATL...88-74 - NL Wild Card
MIN...88-74 - AL Central champion
LAD...87-75
LAA...87-75
SEA...85-77
FLO...85-77
SF...84-78
CIN...82-80
OAK...81-81
ARI...80-82
MIL...79-83
CHC...79-83
CHW...78-84
DET...75-87
NYM...75-87
BAL...73-89
HOU...71-91
CLE...70-92
TOR...69-93
SD...69-93
PIT...65-97
WAS...64-98
KC...62-100

Just for fun, here are my awards picks (these are much less scientific):
AL MVP - Evan Longoria
NL MVP - Hanley Ramirez
AL Cy Young - Jon Lester
NL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum

I can't think of a good AL Rookie of the Year, but I'll take Heyward in the NL.

Y is for YOUUUUUUKKKKKKK (sorry, had to), and for the Yankees. Once again, the Yankees enter the season as the favorite. And once again, their lineup is balanced, and they have depth on the bench and in the 'pen. Brian Cashman has really done a fantastic job of building his roster 1-25 this year and last. Last year was the first time the Yanks outperformed their Pythagorean record by 5 or more games since '05, and it was because they finally got back to doing those typical "Yankee" things. Hopefully they revert to their '06-'08 ways this season, but I'm not holding my breath.

Z is for Zanadu (I know, I'm cheating a little, it's usually spelled with an X. Deal with it, it's late), which is where I feel I am now that it's baseball season. The best day all year (other than my wedding anniversary, and soon, my newborn's birthday) is Opening Day. Bud Selig's most eloquent phrase ever, and granted it's a short list, is that each season offers the "hope and faith" that your team can win. And that begins on Opening Day. Hot dogs. Beer. Baseball. Let's get it on.

MLB 2010, Part One

2010-03-23T21:47:00.002-06:00

Before the start of each season, I like to look back at my projections and see how I did. In 2007, I had a pretty damn good year, picking 17 of the 30 teams within 5 games of their actual record, and finishing an average of only 6 games off for all teams. 2008? Not so much. It was a much worse season. So how did I do in 2009? In between, of course:

# Gms Off.....2007.....2008.....2009
0..................3...........2............3
1-5...............14..........6...........9
6-10.............7...........10.........9
11-15...........5............6...........5
16+..............1............6...........4
Avg Off........6.10.......9.93......8.07

On the positive end of the spectrum, I perfectly nailed my predictions for Boston (95 wins), Milwaukee (80) and Philadelphia (93). On the negative end, I completely blew predictions for Kansas City (81 wins projected, they actually won 65), Detroit (65-86), Cleveland (87-65) and the New York Mets (94-70). While I can fall back on the old injury excuse with the Mets, I did a very poor job of reading the AL Central last year. In fact, the AL Central has proven to be my most challenging division:

Avg # Games Off, 2007-2009
AL East...6.53
NL Cent...7.13
AL West...7.67
NL West...8.33
NL East...8.73
AL Cent...9.80

My AL Central predictions have been more than a game worse than any other division. What makes that figure even worse is the fact that 2 of my 8 perfect predictions were the Royals in 2007 and 2008.

But individually, the team I have had the least luck predicting is the Seattle Mariners. It is the only team with which I have been off by 16 or more games more than once in the past three seasons.

I am currently working on my 2010 predictions, and will try to have them up before the season starts. As an aside, I was going to work on a post about my fantasy draft last week, but I am flying home for my long-standing fantasy league this weekend, and I need to get my season predictions in order as well, so that post will have to be moved to the back-burner.

The Oscar's

2010-03-09T21:08:00.002-07:00

My wife and I went over to a friend's house Sunday night to watch the 82nd Academy Awards. It was the first time we had planned an evening around watching the Oscar's, or any other awards show for that matter. I guess that means we're getting old. As is custom with these sorts of things, we all filled out ballots to see how many of the categories we could predict correctly. But I'll get to that later. Here are some notes I took down during the telecast:

- I felt particularly prepared for this Oscar telecast. Not only had we seen all 10 movies nominated for Best Picture (see my brief thoughts on them here), but we had seen many of the other movies that were nominated for Academy Awards, including Julie & Julia, Coraline (which we actually watched just a couple of hours before leaving for my friends house), Harry Potter & The Half-Blood Prince, Star Trek & Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. But there were still a few we missed that I was putting in my mental queue throughout the night: The Messenger, Crazy Heart, In The Loop, A Single Man, The Secret of the Kells and The Princess & The Frog.

- Speaking of those last two animated movies, I want to see them chiefly to see how it is possible that those two movies were nominated over Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, which I thought was phenomenal. The other real big snub to me was Sam Rockwell being left off Best Actor in favor of Morgan Freeman. I didn't see Invictus, but by all accounts it was a) not a good movie and b) Freeman's role wasn't a dominant one. Certainly, it had to have been less dominant than Rockwell's in Moon.

- Carey Mulligan: shoulder-length brown hair > short blond hair, but she's still a stunner either way. And in a bit of an upset, she was at least as attractive, if not more, than Zoe Saldana. Although I think a lot of that had to due with Saldana's dress, which was sort of strange.

- When I first saw Neil Patrick Harris come out on stage, I was thinking, 'Really? Him again?' But he actually did a marvelous job.

- I didn't get the Meryl Streep Hitler memorabilia joke, but I'd like to. Someone help me out with that.

- I thought it was funny how they made deliberate attempts to keep young people invested in the show, both with the jokes in the opening comedy routine from Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin, and then later with the horror montage and by having Taylor Lautner present an award. The funnies Lautner moment though was when they showed him during the touching John Hughes tribute, and he had that "Who the hell is John Hughes?" look on his face. Ah, youth.

- I loved the fact that the guys from Up were wearing the grape soda pins. It's the little things like that that keep Pixar on top year after year.

- I still don't understand why Joe Montana is endorsing Skechers.

- For all the talk of shortening the program, the night was an epic fail from ABC in terms of keeping it in the allotted time. 57 minutes into the telecast only four awards had been handed out. At that point, they rattled off a number of the less popular awards, but it really shouldn't have taken 57 minutes to do four awards. And while steps like adding a backstage cam for extra thank yous and eliminating the best original song performances were a nice idea, they seemed to make up for it with the extra musical number by NPH, the interpretative dance, the extra opening joke time for Martin & Baldwin (I can't call it a monologue because there was two of them. What do you call that?), the Paranormal Activity skit and the horror montage. Some of that was fun to watch, particularly the opening bits, but, I mean don't they have rehearsals for these things? It's unfathomable to me that you could run 32 minutes over by accident. And while maybe that wouldn't have been a big deal a few years back, we now live in the DVR world. At my friend's house, we had to stop watching on two separate occasions in order to go live and tape the next program so that we didn't miss anything that was happening. Not only was that annoying but we also messed up and had one of the awards spoiled for us. Thanks, ABC.

- I can't tell what delighted me more, that women interrupting during the Music From Prudence acceptance speech, or the fact that "Kanye'd" is now part of our lexicon. I think the latter, mainly because I feel bad for the director after reading a little about why that happened, but I still like saying "Kanye'd."

- Charlize Theron could have easily played the "huge b*tch" role in Deuce Bigalow. She's just so tall. And the massive bulls eyes on her boobies weren't helping the matter. (And yes, in case you're wondering, I did just work in a Deuce Bigalow reference into my Oscar post. Boo yah!)

- My friend was very impressed with Demi Moore's outfit until they panned to her feet, and she decried Moore's "stripper shoes." I felt like that had to be mentioned.

- Can we stop pretending that Kristen Stewart is attractive? Because she's definitely not.

- There is a little known rule that whenever dancers are present at an awards show Jennifer Lopez has to be there to either present them or be shown in the crowd during their performance.

- I thought it was interesting that they had Gerard Butler and Bradley Cooper present the award for Best Visual Effects. The Academy knew they had to find a way to keep women invested during the geeky Best Visual Effects award, and they scored big time with that presenting duo. Both my wife and our friend (who's a girl) thoroughly approved. As did I (wink)!

- It was kind of cool that they had people related to the director or lead actor in some way presenting the clips for Best Picture. Right up until they had Jason Bateman present for Up In The Air. Then it was no longer clever, since he was actually in that movie. They couldn't find Jennifer Garner, Ellen Page, Michael Cera, Katie Holmes, J.K. Simmons, Aaron Eckhart or one of Jason Reitman's other previous stars do that clip? Or someone tangential to Clooney, like Brad Pitt or Matt Damon? That just seemed weird that they would go to all that trouble with the other nine movies, and then not with Up In The Air.

- The funniest line of the night outside of the opening comedy routine had to be when Juan Jose Campanella, the director of El Secreto de Sus Ojos quipped, "I'm just glad they didn't consider Na'vi a foreign language."

- Julianne Moore is underrated. Morgan Freeman looked drunk.

- What a ride for Gabourey Sidibe, nominated for Best Actress in her first-ever role, and at the Oscar's she was introduced by Oprah Winfrey, who also was nominated for an Oscar in her first-ever role (though it was for Best Supporting Actress).

- The Best Speech of the night came down to three people - Mo'Nique, Michael Giacchino (who won for Best Original Score in Up) and Sandra Bullock. It was almost a tie between the latter two, and only because they chose different directions with their speech. Both were very touching, but for different reasons. Bullock went the traditional route, thanking those close to her, including her mom. Meanwhile, Giacchino's message to young people that they pursue their dreams no matter what anyone says was very uplifting as well. But Bullock's speech also had lesbian jokes, so she wins.

- You knew that Kathryn Bigelow had won Best Director the moment Barbara Streisand's name was announced. There was literally no other reason for her to be there. She hasn't appeared in a movie since Meet The Fockers in 2004.

- I think that I have a hard time getting worked up over the incredibly political decisions that the Academy makes these days. They're pretty predictable. On the one hand, you have a movie that literally made a billion dollars, and has already been so influential that at least two movies that were slated to be released less than six months after it were converted to 3D in post-production (Alice in Wonderland and Clash of the Titans). Avatar is literally a movie that may wind up saving the movie business and boosting television sales as well. On the other hand, you have a movie that does a very nice job of attacking the war on Iraq and how terrifying it is to be a soldier in today's military, and to boot the movie was directed by a woman. The Hurt Locker was going to get picked ten times out of ten. The sad thing is that this is exactly what the Academy claimed they were trying to avoid when they bumped to ten Best Picture nominees. All I know is that in 30 years - hell, in 15 years - no one is going to remember 2009 as the year of The Hurt Locker, they will remember it as the year of Avatar. And all other things being equal, that should count for something. In years where there isn't a standout either critically or at the box office, all bets are off. But that's not what we had here. But is it worth getting worked up over? No, not really.

- Finally, let's take a look at my predictions. There are 24 categories in all, and I correctly picked the winner in 13 of the 24 categories. But five of them are not dedicated to American, full-length theatrical releases - Best Foreign Film, Best Documentary Feature, Best Documentary (short subject), Best Short Film (Animated) and Best Short Film (Live Action). There were two others categories where I hadn't seen any of the nominated films - Best Costume Design and Best Original Song. And while I certainly offered a prediction on those seven categories (I even nailed Best Documentary Feature, as I had heard of The Cove), it was in the other 17 that I felt qualified to offer an opinion. And I correctly predicted 12 of these 17. On my Twitter feed, I correctly nailed six of the seven biggies before the telecast - Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Animated feature. The only one I missed was Best Actor, and perhaps my opinion would be different had I seen Crazy Heart. In the other 10 categories, I suppose you'll have to take my word for it, but I nailed six. However, my strategy with these 10 categories was fairly simple - vote for Avatar. I voted for Avatar in six of these 10 categories. In fact, three of the four that I predicted incorrectly were categories in which I voted for Avatar, but in which The Hurt Locker took home the statue. In the fourth, Best Original Screenplay, I had voted for Inglorious Basterds. Nevertheless, I feel pretty good about my showing, not a bad job by me. I'll try to do better next year.

Best Picture 2009

2010-03-06T20:16:00.002-07:00

Last night, the Mrs. and myself took in Precious. Today, we took in A Serious Man, The Hurt Locker and An Education. With these four movies, we have seen all 10 Best Picture nominees for 2009. As promised, here is my ranking of them, in order of enjoyment:

1. Avatar
2. Up
3. Up In The Air
4. Inglorious Basterds
5. An Education
6t. District 9
6t. Precious
8. A Serious Man
9. The Hurt Locker
10. The Blind Side

For the record, my wife's top three were Up, Inglorious Basterds and An Education.

I suppose the surprise here is that my enjoyment of The Hurt Locker doesn't seem to match up with critics. To me, the movie could have been much shorter. To me, the lessons we learned in the end, that Sanborn wanted a child and that James just wanted to keep diffusing bombs, could have been dropped on us much sooner, and we would have enjoyed the movie just the same. And the third main character, Eldridge, is the same character the entire movie. We never learn anything about him other than that he doesn't want to die, which is such an unique character in a military movie. I can't imagine how they thought that up! Also, for a movie where the objectives are to diffuse bombs, I wasn't really on the edge of my seat for any of it. James may have appeared psychotic to his two subordinates, but he also always seemed to know what he was doing. When he tells the superior officer that he had successfully diffused 873 bombs, it seemed that from that point on there was little to no danger of him dying. Odds are if you were going to die from a bomb going off, it would have happened before the 873rd time. Crazy, I know. In any case, it's a good movie, but I didn't enjoy it as much as the others.

This weekend we also took in Precious. On the surface, Precious and District 9 are incredibly different movies, but for me they share a couple of similarities. Like District 9, Precious is likely a movie that will continually be on the cusp of my favorite 100 movies of all-time. Like District 9, it will likely always be on the outside of that list due to it's lack of rewatchability. Precious was a thoroughly moving piece of cinema, and I think that people that focus on the fact that pictures move or that the dream sequences weren't believable - side note, duh, that's why they're called "dreams" - are missing the point. The movie's central strength was its heart, and no amount of camera tricks or flashiness should be able to confuse that point.

A cautionary tale where things turn out mostly all right in the end, An Education struck just the right chord. As a viewer, you are initially hesitant of David, but as time goes by he becomes more and more convincing, and when he asks Jenny to marry him, you think to yourself, 'Well, this is it. He's going to do right by her now.' And when he still turns out to be a bad guy, it's a bit of a punch in the stomach. The blow is dulled only by the fact that she is so young and that she still has her future in front of her if he she wants to fight for it. I initially had this one ranked seventh, but the more I think about it the more I like it. It moved briskly, and it was a rare romantic movie that you wouldn't call a "chick flick."

A Serious Man was in the Coen Brothers signature to be sure. And while it was slow in parts, that agonizing for Larry is what makes the film great. You have to simmer and stew along with him as he slowly loses his mind, house and family, and I think many of us can relate to feeling more decisive in our dreams or in our imagination than we are in real life. In the end though, I can't shake the feeling that Larry was a little too helpless. I mean, no one can be a door mat like that at home and be an almost-tenured professor at the same time, right? I don't know, maybe they can. In any case, I think I'll enjoy A Serious Man more upon repeated viewings, and I feel like The Hurt Locker and The Blind Side will annoy me more on repeated viewings, so that's why I ranked A Serious Man where I did.

Now, please don't mistake my preferences for what I think will happen tomorrow. It seems as though there are only two movies with a chance of winning - Avatar and The Hurt Locker - and as much as I enjoyed Avatar, I really don't see it winning Best Picture. Which leaves The Hurt Locker. It certainly wouldn't be the worst Best Picture winner ever, but I don't think it would get my vote if I voted for such things. In the end though, the real winner is the Academy. I can say without a doubt that I would not have bothered to see all ten of these movies if they weren't nominated, and I think that probably is true, if not more true, for a lot of people. The question then becomes, will diluting the prestige of being a Best Picture nominee be balanced by the potential for greater box office receipts be worth it? I don't think it's a question that can be answered this year, but it's certainly something to ponder.

Winter Hibernation

2010-02-28T17:55:00.002-07:00

So I completely slipped on my plan to blog my thoughts on the most influential hip-hop songs in race relations. I had planned on doing it this weekend, but I got up early yesterday to go to a basketball tournament, and then today was sports madness with BU-Vermont hockey, USA-Canada hockey and Nuggets-Lakers. So it didn't happen. Maybe next year? But over the past couple of weeks, I've been reemerging from my winter music hibernation. I copped Wale's "Attention Deficit," Clipse's "'Til The Casket Drops" and Method Man & Redman's "Blackout! 2," three discs that I had put off buying for quite some time. I also picked up a bunch of singles, and downloaded Tapemaster Inc's "This Is Hip-Hop 10" off of datpiff. And then in this month's Playboy there was an eMusic free 25 songs offer that I just couldn't turn down. I used it to grab a bunch of older songs that we can play for the baby. And since I can never buy/download any music without compiling them into a mix cd or two. Here's the playlists. Feel free to turn it into your own mix!

Winter Hibernation, Disc 1:
1. Wale: World Tour f/ Jazmine Sullivan
2. Janelle Monae: Tightrope f/ Big Boi
3. Juelz Santana: Swimming in Money
4. Clipse: Counseling f/ Nicole Hurst
5. Nas & Damian Marley: As We Enter
6. Freeway: Battlefield
7. Lloyd Banks: Beamer, Benz or Bentley f/ Juelz Santana
8. Wale: Pretty Girls f/ Gucci Mane & Weensey
9. DJ Kay Slay: Self Destruction f/ Sheek Louch, Bun B, Papoose, Busta Rhymes, Uncle Murda & Jay Rock
10. Styles P: Try Sleepin' With A Broken Heart
11. Michael Jackson: Rock With You (Q-Tip Remix)
12. Method Man & Redman: Hey Zulu
13. Clipse: Footsteps
14. Mariah Carey: Up Out My Face f/ Nicki Minaj
15. Wale: Beautiful Bliss f/ Melanie Fiona & J. Cole
16. Rihanna: Hard f/ Jeezy
17. Kid Capri: Turn It Out
18. Young Money: BedRock f/ Lloyd
19. Clipse: Freedom
20. Method Man & Redman: Four Minutes To Lockdown f/ Raekwon & Ghostface Killah
21. Snoop Dogg: I Wanna Rock Remix f/ Busta Rhymes & Styles P

Had to toss in Rihanna and Young Money into this even though I got them awhile ago. That Michael Jackson cut is woefully out of place, but since Q-Tip remixed it, it had to be included. I wasn't aware Kid Capri was still alive, so that was a nice surprise. Also, I didn't know what would happen first, a good Nas "concept" project with another artist, or a good Juelz Santana song. This mix has both. Historic! Also, I'm in love with Tightrope (Pitchfork would be proud of me) and the "Self Destruction" cut is a nice change of pace, especially for the artists involved.

Disc 2:
1. Van Morrison: Brown Eyed Girl
2. Teena Marie: Square Biz
3. Yarbrough & Peoples: Don't Stop The Music
4. Go West: King Of Wishful Thinking
5. SWV: I'm So Into You
6. The Spinners: I'll Be Around
7. The Isley Brothers: Caravan of Love
8. Chaka Khan: Through The Fire
9. TLC: Baby-Baby-Baby
10. The Delfonics: La La Means I Love You
11. The Isley Brothers: That Lady
12. SWV: Weak
13. TLC: What About Your Friends
14. Harold Melvin & The Bluenotes: If You Don't Know Me By Now
15. The Isley Brothers: Between The Sheets
16. Herbie Hancock: Chameleon

Yup, I'm all over the place on this second one. From jazz, to classic rock, to 70's soul, to 80's cheesy rock, to 90's R&B. My baby is going to know it all, just like his big poppa!

The Celtics' Most Important Game of the Year?

2010-02-23T06:35:00.002-07:00

Don't look now, but the Toronto Raptors are only four and a half games behind the Celtics. Here are the conference standings 2-5 as of this morning:

Team.........GB
Orlando.....5
Boston.......6.5
Atlanta......7
Toronto.....11

Toronto has only 26 games on their schedule left to overtake the C's, so they still have a ways to go. But it is imperative that the C's avoid being overtaken. If Toronto were to move ahead of the C's, they would inevitably slide to fourth or fifth place in the East. And the other team waiting for them in the four-vs.-five first round match-up will also inevitably be Orlando or Atlanta (their race is much too close to call at this point). And that's horrible news for Celtics fans. This season, the Celtics have outscored all non-Atlanta and Orlando opponents by an average of 5.83 points. But in their eight games with Atlanta and Orlando, the C's were outscored by 4.88 points, almost the complete inverse. And with the C's ever-slowing pace of game, the problem could only exacerbate itself (unless Nate Robinson really is the savior).

Add all that up, and the most important game of the season may just be the C's last game with Toronto - April 7 in the province of Ontario. Lord knows that on April 7 most of the TV sets in New England will be turned to the early-season showdown with the Bronx Bombers, but the C's may just be fighting for a chance to not be broomed out of the playoffs early elsewhere on the dial.

Blogging Super Bowl XLIV: Fourth Quarter

2010-02-07T18:58:00.002-07:00

6:59 - So, Peyton Manning hasn't played poorly or anything, but his last TD pass was 31 minutes of game time ago.

7:01 - There's just been a lot of un-Manning-like throws in this one, and that deep ball was example numero uno.

7:03 - After Wayne had just one catch for five yards in the first three quarters, Manning threw to hinm on three straight plays, including the fourth-and-two.

7:04 - And the Austin Collie for Super Bowl MVP campaign takes another hit with the two play combo of an "oof" of a screen pass, and then Vilma beating him in coverage 30 yards downfield. Not a good sequence for Collie.

7:05 - That missed field goal was the momentum shift the Saints needed. I have to think the Colts should have gone for it again.

7:07 - That was a good effort by Pop Secret and Emerald Nuts, and while I'm interested to see if they made some sort of crossover product, the ad just wasn't funny enough.

7:09 - I'm glad they explained that Stover replay. That was a bit confusing. In other news, Brees is officially having a better game than Manning. I didn't expect that at all.

7:14 - The Saints made that look way too easy.

7:15 - The Saints should challenge it. He was down (and in) with possession before it was knocked out.

7:17 - And they did. Good call by the Saints. Lance Moore needs to be rewarded for that inhuman effort, and it's a good TD the second the ball breaks the plane.

7:18 - YES! Although I'd love to know how the line judge blew that call. It was pretty obvious.

7:22 - This has been the perfect storm - the ads were better in the first half, and the game has been better in the second half. Also, it's been more than 40 minutes of game time since Manning threw a TD pass. When was the last time that happened, even across two games?

7:23 - Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh. So close.

7:25 - These defenses have to be pretty tired at this point. There's been a lot more YAC in the fourht quarter.

7:26 - Austin Collie misses another pass, and then in true Colts style, gets up and asks for the flag. Typical.

7:27 - What the hell is the Green Car Journal? Whatever it is, it's not nearly half as cool as Charles Barkley. But why waste Lamar Odom there? Taco Bell should have come up with some sort of candy item for him to pump!

7:28 - Phil Simms - "I would keep the extra guys in coverage." Saints blitz six, and they get the pick six. Sorry Peyton. WHO DAT!!!! Geaux Saints!!! That is how you jump a route.

7:33 - Just as an aside, the Doritos Warrior was awesome, the Bud Light Book Club was awesome, but the E-Trade baby is no longer cute. Time to move on E-Trade.

7:34 - Best text of the night from a friend - "Brady just got his first non-Gisele related woody since 2006."

7:35 - The contrasting styles really came into play tonight. Colts didn't go for it on fourth down and suffered with their missed goal, whereas the Saints have taken just about every chance possible. The Saints played to win, and the Colts played to not lose.

7:37 - I'm still flummoxed by this Joe Montana endorsement by Skechers. First, he doesn't appear in the ad, but his quote and his voice does, which is strange to start. Second, he has no reason to try and get in shape since he's never been fat. Third, I seriously doubt Joe Montana fans are Skechers' target market. That ad is the height of "how can we pretend to make our ad special for the Super Bowl?" Just a half-@$$ed attempt.

7:41 - Wow, that was pretty blatant offensive PI. But I'm still surprised it got called.

7:43 - Reggie Wayne developed a case of alligator arms at the worst possible time. Geaux Saints! I've rarely been so happy for a team that wasn't my own to win.

7:45 - Aside from the Saints, the big winners in this game are Tom Brady and Joe Montana (his strange Skechers ad aside), because now it's hard to put Manning in their group now.

7:47 - I agree with the Twitter-verse - Sean Payton is the real Super Bowl MVP. But also Brees. Brees will win.

7:48 - Well, it was fun to give this a whirl. If you actually read this, and I doubt any of you did, I hope you enjoyed yourself! I know I did.

Blogging Super Bowl XLIV: Third Quarter

2010-02-07T18:19:00.002-07:00

6:20 - So Bill Simmons is having a so-so prop bet game overall. Manning didn't throw a second quarter TD., but Garcon won him the jersey number prop bet. But Austin Collie has only one catch.

6:22 - Onside kick!!!!!!! And the Saints get it, after one of the most unorganized pile-ups ever. Wow. Just wow. We've got a game now. Hank Baskett blew it! Kendra's gonna be pissed!

6:24 - Just an aside - nice of CBS to come back from the break with "Run This Town," a completely relevant song, which as my wife said, would have been perfect for the halftime show. Shows that The Who wasn't CBS' idea.

6:25 - Freeney still getting taped on the sideline. That's another huge win for the Saints' onside kick decision. The Colts were unprepared.

6:26 - That's the perfect way to come out. Those are the Saints we love. Foot on the gas pedal. Balls to the wall. Great individual effort by Pierre Thomas.

6:28 - I love Megan Fox. There, I said it.

6:30 - Megan Fox, Tracy Morgan, Stevie Wonder, and screaming chickens...all ruined by Doogie Howser. Ugh.

6:32 - Still laughing at the ladder sequence in the Megan Fox ad. "You got me?" "Ya."

6:33 - Nice work by Addai. Could he be in line for Super Bowl MVP if the Colts win?

6:35 - That was an "I'm Peyton 'F***ing' Manning" throw.

6:38 - If Addai wasn't in line for Super Bowl MVP before, he certainly is now.

6:41 - Punk-@$$ Colts didn't have the brass to onside kick.

6:45 - Wow, just throw it away Drew.

6:48 - Nice analysis on the deep routes there by Simms. Call me crazy, but I don't think Aikman picks up on that.

6:49 - Nice kick by Hartley there, but I was really hoping for the fake field goal. I mean, Payton has pulled just about every other trick out of his hat, why not the fake field goal?

6:51 - Hartley looks pretty upset for a dude that just made three tough field goals.

6:53 - I can't decide if I love or hate that Kia commercial. But I think, overall, the ads were a lot funnier in the first half. However, the Google ad was awesome. As future parents, I liked the how to put together a crib at the end. My solution? Pay the people you buy it from, which we just did earlier today! $50 for delievery and assembly, or hours of frustration followed by years of angst because you're not sure you put it together and just know that today is the day it falls apart with your baby inside? Yeah, tough call. Bring on the fourth quarter.

Blogging Super Bowl XLIV: Halftime

2010-02-07T17:52:00.002-07:00

5:53 - In the interests of completeness, I'm going to endure what is sure to be a horrible halftime show. The Who, proving once again that you can go 24 years without releasing an album and still be considered culturally relevant by the NFL!

5:55 - Halftime snacks - Triscuts and home-made garlic dip courtesy of my wife.

5:56 - I still hate Bill Cowher. Is that so wrong? His hairline continually frustrates and vexes me. Get some plugs, get a piece or start shaving your head. Unreal.

5:58 - The halftime show that they are setting up in the background looks craptastic. Glowing lights? Wow, I'm impressed. But I never get tired of the CBS guys yelling their points in a hurried manner. I'd love to know how their analysis would be different if they were in the studio.

6:00 - "You can't find synergy Lemon, it's bigger than all of us." Nice work by CBS with the Big Brother-Amazing Race tie-in.

6:02 - God, if I was The Who I'd be thoroughly embarrassed right now. Do you think they passed out a lyrics sheet to everyone in the crowd before halftime?

6:08 - My wife's list of non-offensive people who would be better right now - Taylor Swift, Jonas Brothers, Jay-Z, Miley Cyrus..."there's just so many choices."

6:10 - Sorry, I don't even know this song. But the lights are purty!

6:11 - My wife wants to know who is on the committee to pick the halftime show performer and how far down the list was The Who. My response, I would hope very far. But obviously not far enough.

6:13 - Is there an applause sign?

6:14 - My dad summed up halftime the best in our traditional halftime phone call - "Well we didn't get to see Janet Jackson's nipple, but at least we got to see that guy's fat belly!"

Blogging Super Bowl XLIV: Second Quarter

2010-02-07T17:09:00.002-07:00

5:11 - Let's start the quarter with a wifey comment - "It bothers me that so many people like 'How I Met Your Mother' now. It's such predictable humor. Agreed.

5:11 - Welcome to the game Marques Colston! Better late than never.

5:12 - Classic Reggie Bush bailed out by the late hit. Hey, take 'em where you can get them. Saints need points on this drive or this one could be over quickly. Bush barely got hit, but the intent, way out of bounds, was there.

5:13 - Nice toughness by Pierre Thomas on those two plays. The Saints need more of that.

5:14 - The Saints running backs seem to not understand that you can't run around the Colts D. They're too fast.

5:17 - I guess we can stop wondering whether or not Dwight Freeney is 100%. Horrible end to an otherwise good-looking drive. But at least they got some points. Need a stop on D.

5:18 - My wife is thoroughly amused by the name "Bushrod."

5:18 - Is there a situation where the Stripes music isn't hilarious? The ads tonight have been terrific.

5:20 - "Why the f*** is Mark Sanchez talking to me?" God I love my wife.

5:22 - Two straight commercials without pants? I love it. But I bet some people will think they're the same ad? Also, memo to Hyundai, Sears already ran the Favre joke into the ground. It's not funny anymore.

5:24 - First big play from the Saints D comes courtesy of Jonathan Vilma. First time Addai has looked like Addai of last year or so.

5:25 - HUGE drop by Garcon. Also, there's never been a punt return TD in the Super Bowl? Would not have guessed that.

5:28 - I was totally going to ask my barber for Tracy Porter's haircut this weekend, but I changed my mind at the last minute. Glad I did, I wouldn't want to look like a copycat!

5:29 - Nice pickup on the throw in the flat to Thomas. Still got something out of the play even though the coverage was good.

5:29 - Colston is really coming alive in the second quarter. That's a very encouraging sign for the Saints.

5:31 - Nice catch by Shockey.

5:32 - Just when I'm questioning why the Saints ran shotgun on third-and-short again, Lance Moore got so wife open you'd have thought he was in Idaho. Wow.

5:32 - And then they threw it all away with that end-around. You. can't. run. around. the. Colts. D.

5:33 - Two passes, two bad miscommunications by the Colts secondary.

5:34 - I hate it when d-linemen jump out of their stance and point at o-linemen. Nobody likes a tattle-tale.

5:36 - Nicely done by Dodge Charger. That ad had my complete attention.

5:38 - Why don't more people hate Papa John? I bet they would if his pizza wasn't delicious. Oh hey, a football game!

5:39 - My wife just started singing "cleats on the ground, cleats on the ground." That was the first time (I think) that the Saints didn't go shotgun on third and short.

5:41 - Punksatawney Polamulu! That was hilarious.

5:41 - This game's over. That was a mirror image of the Willie McGinest tackle in Indy many moons ago, right down to Gary Brackett's run off the field.

5:44 - I'd love to know why New Orleans didn't call a time out after first down.

5:45 - I thought I was going to get through the Harry Potter commercial without any comment from my wife, and then right as it ended, she turned to me and said "I want to go," ever so softly. Damnit. Oh well, I knew it was coming. I'd put the odds at 20% that our son's first trip is to Univeral Orlando.

5:46 - I have so many questions about FLO TV. It sounds expensive.

5:47 - Wow, Reggie Bush just hurt me on two levels. On one level, his return sucked. On a second level, he just caused my wife to start singing, "he was dancin' dancin'" ala the Jackson 5's "Dancin' Machine."

5:49 - "Jeffrey...come back."

5:50 - A good and bad play at the same time from Brees. Good - he got the ball out of bounds. Bad - it gained less than a yard.

5:51 - Hartley is keeping New Orleans in the game. But my wife isn't impressed. Of Hartley, she says, "he looks like a gay punk rocker." Well, alright.

Blogging Super Bowl XLIV: First Quarter

2010-02-07T16:32:00.003-07:00

4:32 - Brees looks calm on first drop back despite a lot of pressure. Good omen?

4:33 - Nothing like a deep ball on 3rd and 2. Really overthrew him. What was the point of that? To beat Indy, you have to have some long drives. Not a good start. In other news, my wife is still trying to figure out why Simms and Nantz wore purple and orange, respectively. Her latest comment, "well, there's orange in the logo. But that doesn't explain Simms..."

4:34 - Such a typical demoralizing first play from the Indy offense. Cover Dallas Clark with a LB and you will pay.

4:35 - Wow, that's one hell of a neck beard.

4:37 - This is a clinic so far by Peyton Manning. Don't get greedy, just take what the defense gives you.

4:37 - Nice recovery by Harper on first down there. Also, isn't Tracy Porter the female NBA ref?

4:38 - Manning is hot. He's even hitting guys while back-pedaling? This could be a long night for the Saints D.

4:39 - First mistake of the night coincides with a third down. Lucky for Saints.

4:42 - "Oh, they're not empty." Nice.

4:43 - Snickers & Betty White - even better. You have to get creative to make "that's not what your girlfriend says," still be funny.

4:44 - Asked my wife what she thought of the Tebow ad - "What was it for?" Can't believe there was that much controversy over that ad.

4:45 - He was down. His elbow was down and there had been contact.

4:45 - What is the point of Hyundai? That ad sucked.

4:46 - BOOST MOBILE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THAT WAS AWESOME!!!!!

4:46 - That Doritos ad was strange. Maybe I'm too old to laugh at that? It's entirely possible.

4:48 - Head to the mountains. Lazy coverage by Hayden right there.

4:50 - Sorry, Marques, he'll hit you in the hands next time.

4:51 - I said to anyone who asked me all week that the Saints have to play a perfect game to win. So far, despite that downed punt, they are not doing that. Manning and Garcon messed up that third down throw. It wasn't anything the Saints did.

4:52 - Much better second effort from Doritos, and Dr. Marvin Candle/Dr. Edgar Halliwax for Bud Light? Good times. Liking the efforts so far from Madison Ave.

4:55 - Wow, I don't think the Colts running backs have combined for that much consecutive yardage in a long time.

4:57 - Two consecutive throws where Manning had to throw off his back foot, with two incompletions. But then Manning makes a great audible and they get another 10+ yard run out of Addai. When's the last time that happened?

4:58 - Who is this guy wearing #29 and what did he do with Joseph Addai?

5:00 - My wife is getting really upset with the choppiness of the camera.

5:01 - Comment just deleted by me - "Ok, Manning is no longer on fire." Just when you let up for a second, he burns you. Perfect balance by the Colts on that drive.

5:02 - Nice job, Coca-Cola. And once again, Go Daddy's ad makes incredibly little sense. Also, Go Daddy, they have this thing called porn now. I don't need to go to your website to see racy material online. Thanks though.

5:06 - Doritos casket? Genius. Bud Light auto-tune? Not so much. It would have been funny two years ago though.

Blogging Super Bowl XLIV: Pre-game

2010-02-07T16:13:00.002-07:00

I'm going to give blogging a live event a shot for the first time. I figured since I'm not really emotionally invested in the outcome of this game - for the record I'm rooting for the Saints because one of my good friends is a Saints fan - this seemed like a good way to stay invested in the game, and also to try out my chops at the quick reaction world of live blogging. Although the sentiment will be muted since I don't have any sort of cool software to make that happen in real-time, so you'll just have to trust me. I will post updates quarterly, and my time stamps will be Mountain Standard Time, since that's the time zone in which I live.

4:17 - Pretty cool to do the Walter Payton Award right before the Super Bowl. The NFL does so many things better than the other pro sports, and that is certainly one.

4:18 - Queen Latifah singing America The Beautiful is another. I have chills. But what are the rules with players putting their hands over their heart for ATB? Some players are, some players aren't. I like the Reggie Bush approach, hands clasped behind his back. Save hand on heart for the Anthem. Also, Queen Latifah's coat is pretty shiny. Finally, was she rocking a behind-the-ear neck tattoo?

4:21 - Ugh, I can't stand Carrie Underwood. Love the 6-inch jumbo heels with the white zipper jacket zipped low enough that we can see your silver bra. You stay classy Carrie Underwood. Her voice also came dangerously close to cracking at the end, she was really forcing it. Definitely not the effortless range you should have to really knock the Anthem out of the park.

4:23 - Wait, was that the Last Airbender ad? It was only like 15 seconds...I purposely waited on watching it online so I could see it on the TV.

4:25 - I like the new take on the McDonald's ad. Go Larry!!!!

4:26 - I wonder how many of those Nurse Jackie promos I'm going to have to watch tonight? Let's put the over/under at 6. I'll take the over.

4:27 - Before we get going, my official prediction is Colts 27-Saints 20.

4:27 - Yet another great move by the NFL - having the new HOF inductees at the game. Congrats to Floyd Little - Mark Kiszla really did write a good piece on him a couple of weeks ago. That's the difference between Kiszla and Woody Paige - Kiszla is actually a good writer.

4:28 - Wow, I can't believe that call of heads worked.

4:29 - My wife's comment on Hyundai pre-game: If I was them, I would be pimping myself big-time right now because Toyota is f****d. Such language for a pregnant lady. Then she asked me what Tom Brady is doing today? Because I know...

Tweeting The Numbers Recap

2010-02-01T22:02:00.003-07:00

Finally, the finish line. Here are all the posts in case you missed them: #'s 00-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-82 and 83-99.

Looking back on this project, one thing I can tell for sure is that football teams have an inherent advantage since they use the majority of the numbers from 1-99, whereas other sports mostly stop in the high 50's. To wit:

#'s 00-99, Favorite Players, By Team:
Patriots: 34
Red Sox: 18
Celtics: 13
BU Hockey: 7
Bruins: 5
General: 4
Rockies: 3

But when you knock out #'s 61-99, it's a far different story:

#'s 00-60, Favorite Players, By Team:
Red Sox: 17
Patriots: 15
Celtics: 13
BU Hockey: 6
Bruins: 4
General: 4
Rockies: 3

That Patriots number is more than halved. However, I am surprised to see that even in this scenario, the Pats sneak in ahead of the Celtics, whom I consider my second favorite team after the Red Sox (with the Pats being third). Although I suppose it shouldn't be that big of a surprise since there are only 12 players on a basketball team and 53 on a football team...

The Runner-Up, or "Apologies To" players were also in line with the second graph:

Runner-Up Players, By Team:
Red Sox: 45
Patriots: 31
Celtics: 29
BU Hockey: 21
Bruins: 15
Rockies: 13
General: 2

This seems to fit a lot better. The Sox are my first love, and I had a winner or runner-up for them for every number from 1-53, with the exception of #33 (I just couldn't bring myself to include Jason Varitek. I truly can't stand him, and he is going to further tarnish any legacy he once had with another season of back-breakingly bad performance in 2010, which will be his third straight such season and fourth in the last five years. One of the biggest mistakes of the Theo Epstein regime was his four year, $40 million contract after the '04 season. It would be THE biggest if not for the words "Edgar Renteria." But I digress.). The Patriots once again rank high due to the combination of sheer numbers as well as a decade-long dynasty, and the C's and Terriers finish strong. Though to be truthful, the Terriers would have probably done better had I not finished so many nights after a BU game at T's Pub or The Dugout. Looking through my old Images of Sports: Boston University Hockey book, there were several players who I knew I liked, but couldn't remember how much I liked them. And as many of my friends will tell you, I have a poor memory to begin with, and that's before you add $2 Bud Lights to the mix.

The most difficult numbers were definitely #24, #4, #8, #14, #15, #17 and #38. Comparing those players, and remembering others like Willie McGinest, Jason Allison, Troy O'Leary and Sherman Douglas were definitely a fun trip down memory lane. I would recommend it highly if you have a few hours to kill. And let's face it, after the Super Bowl this Sunday and the Beanpot final next Monday, with the Bruins and Celtics fading, the Patriots never talking about their draft/free agency plans and the Sox still a month or so from Spring Training games, every New England sports fan is going to have some time to kill this month.

Tweeting The Numbers, #'s 83-99

2010-02-01T19:35:00.002-07:00

This is my seventh and final post on my favorite players of all-time by jersey number. It's been quite a journey. After this, I'll write a quick recap post as well.

#83, Wes Welker. Only player I found in q&d search w/ more recs than Welker's 346 in 3 yr span was M. Harrison w/354. J. Rice's best: 342.

#84, Shawn Jefferson. The deep threat. He led Pats in Y/C in all 4 seasons (min. 30 recs), including league leading 22.7 in '98.

#85, Nick Buoniconti. Apologies to: Jermaine Wiggins. The HOF linebacker was way before my time, but Pats only have so many HOF'ers.

#86, Stanley Morgan. The ultimate deep threat, he avg'd 20+ Y/C his first 6 yrs. When he ruined body on turf, Pats finally switched to grass.

#87, Ben Coates. Was so sad when "Winter" Coates was released. His 96 receptions stood as record for TE's for decade be4 Gonzalez broke it.

#88, Hart Lee Dykes. Apologies to: Terry Glenn. Only played 2 yrs due to knee & eye injuries, but avg'd 16.2 Y/C & could have been great.

#'s 89-92 - Nobody.

#93, Richard Seymour. 1 of key cogs in the Pats dynasty, his trade this yr signaled end of era, tho it took us til Jan. to admit it.

#94, Ty Warren. Seymour's book-end on the d-line, Warren needs to prove next year he can be healthy and effective at the same time.

#95, Roman Phifer. 1 of the key, if not THE key, veteran free agent addition in the heralded free agent group of the '01 season.

#96 - Nobody.

#97, Matt Gilroy. Apologies to: Jarvis Green. BU's 2nd Hobey Baker winner is a great story & it was fun to watch him mature into champion.

#98 - Nobody.

#99, Mike Wright. He's been only a role player, but a damn entertaining one. W/ 5 sacks this yr, maybe he can be more in '10 & beyond.

Tweeting The Numbers, #'s 61-82

2010-02-01T18:32:00.003-07:00

Five down, two to go. Find the first five posts here, here, here, here and here.

#61, Clay Buchholz. Finally started to show the potential dominance last yr, & even w/ Lackey now in the fold, Sox need Buchholz in '10.

#62 - Nobody

#63, Joe Andruzzi. Apologies to: Paxton Crawford. Few moments in Patriots history will top when he was intro'd w/ his brothers after 9/11.

#'s 64-68 - Nobody.

#69, Eugene Chung. He actually was terrible, but we got a BIG kick out of making fun of him back in the day, & for that I love him.

#70, Logan Mankins. Hopefully we'll watch him for a long time, but I held my breath when I saw he was out of position in Pro Bowl last nite.

#'s 71-72 - Nobody

#73, John Hannah. The dean emeritus of Patriots offensive lineman, I always heard about him but he retired just before my conscious life.

#74 - Nobody.

#75, Vince Wilfork. Big Vince Wilfork had a spectacular debut, helping the Pats win the Super Bowl his rookie year. I hope he stays.

#76 - Nobody.

#77, Raymond Bourque. Apologies to: Mike Compton. 1 of last B's gms I went to was Ray Bourque night. Avs had no right to retire his # tho.

#78, Bruce Armstrong. Best Pats o-lineman of my conscious viewing life, I'm still jealous that my wife went to Bruce Armstrong Day w/out me.

#79 - Nobody.

#80, Troy Brown. My favorite Patriot of all-time. Troy Brown Makes First Downs. He did whatever was needed. Hire him as O-coordinator!

#81, Randy Moss. Say whatever you want about him, but he's always been entertaining. I'm overjoyed he was able to recharge his career in NE.

#82, Vincent Brisby. 1 of key Pats from early '90's wasteland years, Brisby was an afterthought by the time the Pats reached Super Bowl.

Next Up: #'s 83-99

Tweeting The Numbers, #'s 51-60

2010-01-31T14:57:00.003-07:00

And the beat goes on. Previously, I covered #'s 00-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40 and 41-50. These are tweet-style to keep it concise, and emphasis is given to guys whom I watched play.

#51, Jerod Mayo. Apologies to: Julian Tavarez. He slumped a little in his 2nd year due to injury, but Mayo will spread it on again next yr.

#52, Carl Corazzini. Apologies to: Stojko Vrankovic, Ted Johnson, Mike Boddicker. Cheating a bit, this was Captain Carl's # on Bruins.

#53, Chris Slade. Apologies to: Joe Kleine, Tomo Ohka. His 51 sacks are 3rd on Pats all-time. Slade had 4+ sacks in all 8 seasons w/Pats.

#54, Tedy Bruschi. Apologies to: Ed Pinckney. Always better player in minds of Pats fans than he really was but we don't care. We love Tedy.

#55, Willie McGinest. Apologies to: Eric Williams, Tim Lincecum. McGinest always forgotten when people talk about diff btw new & old Pats D.

#56, Andre Tippett. Apologies to: Franklin Morales. W/ McGinest, only Pat w/ more sacks than Slade, Tippett had name a child could remember.

#57, Calvin Pickering. Apologies to: Steve Nelson. My friend @harding_at_mlb stumped for Nelson, but big Cal was just too much fun to watch.

#58, Jonathan Papelbon. Apologies to: Matt Chatham. I actually don't much like Paps & his absurd poor man's Rocker-tude, but I respect him.

#59, Roosevelt Colvin. Injuries prevented him from being an A+ signing, but Rosey was a hard worker who was effective when healthy.

#60, Hanley Ramirez. Unfortunately, he only had 2 PA w/ Sox, but I'll always root 4 him. Sox got '07 WS, but would have had more w/ Hanley.

This post marks the end of consecutive #'s. As I get into the 60's, I mean I could keep offering players for each number, but it wouldn't be genuine. It would be naming them just to name them. Two posts to go!

Next Up: #'s 61-82

Tweeting The Numbers, #'s 41-50

2010-01-31T07:32:00.004-07:00

We're not actually halfway through the numbers, obviously, as we're only to 41, but in actuality we are. With many of the higher numbers I don't have a favorite player because once we reach the high 50's we shift almost exclusively into football numbers, and most 60's and 70's for football numbers are of course, offensive linemen. And there are not a lot of offensive linemen with whom you form an emotional connection, am I right? Most of the time, when you notice an offensive lineman, it's because they just f****d something up. But I digress. Here are #'s 41-50. You can find the first four posts here, here, here and here.

#41, Jason Allison. Apologies to: James Posey, Ugueth Urbina. Had 83, 76 & 95 pt years 4 B's, but injuries ravaged him. He was done @ 30.

#42, Jackie Robinson. Apologies to: Chris Ford, Ronnie Lippett, Mo Vaughn. If not 4 Joe Cronin, Jackie & Willie Mays may have been Red Sox.

#43, Kendrick Perkins. Apologies to: Alan Embree. The only thing more fun than watching Perk play is listening to him be interviewed.

#44, Danny Ainge. Apologies to: Orlando Cabrera. What, you thought I was going to pick Marion Butts?

#45, Pedro Martinez. Apologies to: Otis Smith. My favorite baseball player ever. Watching him pitch was/is like watching Picasso paint.

#46, Bob Stanley. Apologies to: Jacoby Ellsbury. Was Game 6 the Maine native's fault? The wild pitch didn't help, but no, not his fault.

#47, Bruce Hurst. Apologies to: Robert Edwards. I don't really know what to say about Hurst. He was always just kind of there.

#48, Tully Banta-Cain. Apologies to: Tony Fossas. 1 of many examples of player that is best in Pats system, TBC had good sense to come back.

#49, Tim Wakefield. Apologies to: Joey Juneau. Likely the last of his species to have impact at MLB level, we'll never forget about Timmy.

#50, Mike Vrabel. Apologies to: Eddie House, Mike Timlin. All 3 were role players who stepped up in clutch, but for time, Vrabel was more.

Next Up: #'s 51-60.

Tweeting The Numbers, #'s 31-40

2010-01-30T21:54:00.002-07:00

Here's the first three posts - #'s 00-10, 11-20 and 21-30.

#31, Kieran Millan. Apologies to: Cedric Maxwell, Brandon Meriweather, Jon Lester, Sean Fields. His great play helped BU to the 08-09 crown.

#32, Kevin McHale. Apologies to: Don Sweeney, Antowain Smith, Derek Lowe. Every NE kid used to stand under his hoop & mimic McHale's moves.

#33, Larry Bird. Apologies to: Anson Carter, Kevin Faulk, Colin Wilson. Only athlete who could intrigue me enough to read 2 autobiographies.

#34, Paul Pierce. Apologies to: Byron Dafoe, Kevin Turner, David Ortiz, Rich Garces. The Truth is the only player of whom I own 2 jerseys.

#35, Reggie Lewis. Apologies to: Andy Moog, Patrick Pass, Rickey Henderson. Taken too soon, he was nearing Jordan/Drexler/Miller status.

#36, Lawyer Milloy. Apologies to: Tom Gordon, John Curry. Who is the best Pats safety ever, this guy or the next guy? Could be a fun debate.

#37, Rodney Harrison. Apologies to: Bill "Spaceman" Lee. Both Milloy and Rodney appeared in 2 Super Bowl's as Pats, but Rodney won both.

#38, Ubaldo Jimenez. Apologies to: Tyrone Poole, Curt Schilling. Tough call, but Ubaldo is great guy while Schilling is pompous windbag.

#39, Mike Greenwell. Apologies to: Sam Cunningham. My first Red Sox poster as a kid was of "The Gator." So underrated. Had 6+ 3B 5 times.

#40, Dwight Evans. Apologies to: Dino Radja, Mike Haynes. I'm cheating here, as Dewey only was #40 for 2 years, but I wanted to pick him.

Tweeting The Numbers, #'s 21-30

2010-01-30T20:05:00.002-07:00

Check out the first two posts here and here.

#21, Mike Eruzione. Apologies to: Bill Sharman, Randall Gay, Roger Clemens, Eric Young. BU/Miracle on Ice captain or "Texas Con Man?" Tough!

#22, Dave Meggett. Apologies to: Wily Mo Pena. Had 3 of 4 best seasons as a Patriot & was Pro Bowler during the '96 Super Bowl season.

#23, Michael Jordan. Apologies to: Frank Ramsey, Antwan Harris, Luis Tiant. Do I even need an explanation?

#24, Manny Ramirez. Apologies to: Terry O'Reilly, Sam Jones, Ty Law, Dwight Evans, Dexter Fowler, Travis Roy. Toughest #. All great choices.

#25, Hal Gill. Apologies to: K.C. Jones, Troy O'Leary, Kenny Magowan. Hard to beat O'Leary's '99 ALDS Gm 5 heroics, but enjoyed Gill era.

#26, Wade Boggs. Apologies to: Glen Wesley, Raymond Clayborn, Jeff Francis. End was bitter, but only Teddy better pure hitter w/ Red Sox.

#27, Carlton Fisk. Apologies to: Danny Fortson, Terrell Buckley, Bryan Ewing. Ah, Carlton Fisk Day, when NPD's & my dad shouted @ strangers.

#28, Michel Larocque. Apologies to: Tony Delk, Corey Dillon, Curtis Martin, Doug Mirabelli. My first yr @ BU, he was 17-4-1. I was hooked.

#29, Ricky DiPietro. Apologies to: Pervis Ellison, Keith Foulke, Jorge De La Rosa. His 3 line passes were legendary. Wish he stayed longer.

#30: Mosi Tatupu, Patriots: Apologies to: ML Carr, C's; Sam Horn, Sox; Jim Craig, BU. Mosi still my all-time favorite Pats special teamer.

Next up: #'s 31-40

Tweeting The Numbers, #'s 11-20

2010-01-30T19:03:00.002-07:00

Let's keep this train rolling. To recap, these are my favorite players by jersey number, and I'm doing it tweet style to keep it short and sweet. Check out the first post here.

#11, Drew Bledsoe. Apologies to: Dana Barros, Bill Mueller, Dan Spang. Drew's comeback in PIT in '01 one of most moving performances ever.

#12, Tom Brady. Apologies to: Adam Oates, Pumpsie Green, Ellis Burks, Mike Grier. He's fading now, but after 3 rings he could only go down.

#13, Dan Marino. Apologies to: Delonte West, John Valentin, Nick Bonino. My first Halloween sports "costume" was a teal Marino jersey.

#14, Bob Cousy. Apologies to: Sergei Samsanov, Steve Grogan, Jim Rice, Carl Corrazzini. The definition of crotchety, old, yet beloved, man.

#15, Tom Heinsohn. Apologies to: Dustin Pedroia, Rick Meagher, Kevin Millar. Yes he's a homer, but he was once CBS' color guy for reason.

#16, Peter McArthur. Apologies to: "Satch" Sanders, Jim Lonborg. Not best group, so I'll go with guy I saw play, even if he never won.

#17, Todd Helton. Apologies to: John Havlicek, Dick Radatz, Jack O'Callaghan. Hard. Met Helton & Radatz, respect both & other 2 true champs.

#18, Chris Drury. Apologies to: Dave Cowens, Reggie Jefferson. We used to have saying: Jack Parker is God, & Chris Drury is Jesus. Go BU!

#19, Joe Thornton. Apologies to: Tom Tupa, Fred Lynn, Josh Beckett, Chris Bourque. Essentially stopped caring for NHL after B's traded him.

#20, Barry Sanders. Apologies to: Ray Allen, Gino Cappelletti, Kevin Youkilis, Chris Iannetta. Once went to Lions-Pats preseason just 4 him.

Next up: #'s 21-30.

Tweeting The Numbers

2010-01-27T20:11:00.003-07:00

Whenever I go to places like Noodles & Company, where they give you a number while you wait for your food, I always try to think of athletes who have that number. I know, I'm a dork. But it got me thinking recently - what are my favorite athletes by jersey number? Well, I got curious, and whenever I get curious, as my wife so often reminds me, I make a spreadsheet. So that's what I did. I made a spreadsheet with my favorite Bruins, Celtics, Patriots, Red Sox, Rockies and BU ice hockey players by number, with a column for other random players as well. And since there's obviously a lot of numbers, we're going to do this twitter style - every number spelled out in 140 characters or less, complete with runners-up (runners-up will be listed in that same order - Bruins, Celtics, Patriots, Red Sox, Rockies, Terriers, random). Tonight - #'s 00 through #10.

#00, Robert Parish. "Chief" was showstopper, from his rainbows, to decking Laimbeer, to having a lb. of weed shipped to his house.

#0, Walter McCarty. Apologies to: Leon Powe. I still love Waltah, but Leon Powe "Da Monstah" may have trumped him had he stayed.

#1, Bobby Doerr. Apologies to: Reggie Lemelin, Jamey Carroll. Loved reading about him in "The Teammates," req. reading 4 Sox fans.

#2, Troy Tulowitzki. Apologies to: Doug Flutie, Carl Everett, Eric Gryba. Fun to watch in the field & at the plate. Future MVP.

#3, Dennis Johnson. Apologies to: Stephen Gostkowski, Jody Reed, Eric Young, Jr., Tony Amonte, Ryan Whitney. "Fiddlin & diddlin!!"

#4, Adam Vinatieri. Apologies to: Bobby Orr, Sherman Douglas, Jackie Jensen, Sean Sullivan, Chris Webber. Adam edges Orr slightly.

#5, Nomar Garciaparra. Apologies to: Kevin Garnett, Carlos Gonzalez, Tom Poti. Nomar never won it all but he captured post-strike RS Nation.

#6, Bill Russell. Apologies to: Gord Kluzak, Johnny Pesky, Brian Collins. Only way to top a Shrewsbury native is to have 11 rings.

#7, Trot Nixon. Apologies to: Phil Esposito, Dee Brown, Dom DiMaggio. The original Dirt Dog was as New England as a Carolina boy can be.

#8, Antoine Walker. Apologies to: Cam Neely, Carl Yastrzemski. I'll never forget 'Toine b*tch*ng out the tm in Gm 3. Best. Comeback. Ever.

#9, Ted Williams. Apologies to: Rajon Rondo, Vinny Castilla. Not only greatest hitter ever, but smart enough to write a good book about it.

#10, Rich Gedman. Apologies to: Dmitri Kvartalnov, JoJo White, Dante Bichette, Dave Silk. Worcester native & the Rocket's catcher.

Next Up: #'s 11 through 20.

My Five Favorite TV Shows With a Predominantly African-American Cast

2010-01-18T07:22:00.005-07:00

Re-reading my post from yesterday, I realize I could have done a better job enunciating why I am devoting a couple of different posts to Dr. King. As one of my friends reminded me last night, Dr. King didn't produce any movies or television shows. But without his influence and the influence of others during the Civil Rights Movement, our nation and world would be profoundly different, and not for the better. However, since I'm not a history professor, I don't want to pretend that I know the most important ways our world has changed as a result of the Civil Rights Movement. But one thing is near certain - without the Civil Rights Movement, many of the fine movies, television shows and music that the African-American community has produced would not be openly appreciated the way it is today, or may never have seen the light of the day at all. So that's why I thought I would compile these lists in tribute to Dr. King.

Like the movies, I have seen plenty of predominantly African-American TV shows. However, I can't say that I have followed them all fervently. That's just the nature of television, you can't watch everything. And especially as a kid, in a land without DVRs, DVDs, On Demand or Hulu, it was even tougher. Once again with this list, I had to make a couple of judgment calls, the most notable of which was whether or not to include music shows like "Yo MTV Raps!," "106 & Park" and "Rap City". I decided ultimately not to include them, although "Rap City" would have surely made the list had I included it. Along the same lines, I couldn't include comedy/variety shows like "The Arsenio Hall Show," "In Living Color" and "Chapelle's Show," because I didn't watch them with even semi-regularity. I also have never seen many of the great African-American shows of the '70's like "Sanford and Son," "Good Times" and "The Jeffersons." Other shows that I have watched over the years but that didn't make the cut include "Amen," "Everybody Hates Chris," "Family Matters," "Hangin' With Mr. Cooper," "Method & Red," "Moesha," "New York Undercover," "Roc," "Sister, Sister," "The Bernie Mac Show" (RIP) and "The Cleveland Show."

5. (Tie) "Martin" / "A Different World" - I'm cheating a little bit here. These shows share some of the same characteristics for me in that I watched them both pretty straight through the first couple of seasons, but then fell out of habit, and would catch them at the intersection of they're on and I'm home. I also was probably a little young to understand a lot of what was going on in them, even if I think I did. The Notorious B.I.G. guest appearance on "Martin" (one of Biggie's only two TV show appearances ever along with an episode of "New York Undercover") has to be one of the greatest guest appearances ever.

4. "Out All Night" - I loved this show, and was pretty upset when they canceled it after only one season. Vivica A. Fox was one of my early crushes (still is, really), and the rest of the main cast - Morris Chestnut, the great Patti LaBelle and Duane Martin were all more than solid. Oh well.

3. "The Cosby Show" - I still have fond memories of the episode where Claire made Theo put on a coat to go outside and play football in the cold and Theo shoved it in the mailbox because he didn't want to wear it. I was the same way...though my coats were usually too puffy to jam into the mailbox.

2. "The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air" - As soon as I see the words, I immediately start humming that theme song. Much like The Barbershop, this show incorporated life lessons without shutting off the funny. And has there been a funnier foil than the one Carlton provided Will all those years? Doubtful. And if that isn't enough, the show gave Tyra Banks her big break, which isn't a bad thing.

1. "The Wire" - My wife objected to this selection. "The main character's white," she protested. True, he is. But most of the rest of the cast is African-American. Looking at the show's main iMDB page, 20 of the main 29 characters listed are African-American, and that's not even counting the kids from season four, or other notable characters like Prop Joe, Cheese, Mayor Royce and his aide Norman, and of course, D'Angelo Barksdale. Sure, there were segments of the plot that focused on McNulty, the mainly caucasian employees of the docks and even eventual mayor Carcetti, but for my money this show did more to highlight the plight of young men and women in the ghetto than any other song, movie or TV show ever has. And it's also arguably the best show in television history.

My Five Favorite Movies With A Predominantly African-American Cast

2010-01-17T11:44:00.005-07:00

In honor of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day tomorrow, I thought it would be fun to create some lists honoring African-Americans in pop culture, and I figured I would start with movies. In trying to run down this list, I was tabulating all the movies I've seen that are predominantly African-American, I realized I've seen a lot more than I thought I had. And I haven't even seen Precious yet. And frankly, I've enjoyed nearly all of them. There were some judgment calls that I left off, movies like Jackie Brown, White Men Can't Jump and Mr. 3000, whose casts probably can't be classified as "predominantly African-American." There are also tons of movies that I've never seen or never seen in full, like Do The Right Thing, Juice, New Jack City and Trespass. And finally, there are a lot of movies from before my time from the heydey of blaxploitation that I haven't seen, like the original Shaft, Super Fly, Foxy Brown and Dolemite. But I've still seen my fair share. So with my apologies to Above The Rim, Ali, Belly, Boyz n The Hood, Dead Presidents, Deliver Us From Eva, First Sunday, Friday After Next, Harlem Nights, Next Friday, Notorious, Poetic Justice, Ray, Shaft (2000), The Ladies Man, The Nutty Professor (I & II), The Wood, Who's The Man? and probably a bunch of other movies I've forgotten, here are my five favorite movies with a predominantly African-American cast:

5. Barbershop - This flick manages to impart important lessons about community without stemming the flow of laughter. A true ensemble cast, Ice Cube disappears from the screen for long stretches and it seems natural. Anthony Anderson, Eve and Cedric the Entertainer all steal scenes, and I love that I still see Leonard Earl Howze (Dinka) popping up in commercials these days.

4. The Best Man - Taye Diggs tries to manage all the crazy around him, and survives intact except for a black eye in this story about losing, finding and keeping love in your life.

3. Menace II Society - One day when I was in high school, I went to the video store and was going to rent this or Boyz N The Hood. The box for Menace had a quote from a critic that read something like "even better than Boyz N The Hood." So I rented Menace. And agreed. "You know you done fu**ed up now, right?"

2. Coming To America - "This is beautiful. What is that? Velvet?"

1. Friday - Fun fact: "Tiny" Lister has more items on his iMDB page than Samuel L. Jackson. And despite memorable performances in The Fifth Element, The Dark Knight and others, he will ALWAYS be Deebo. My best friend and I have been relentlessly quoting this movie about a day in the life of two good friends for the past 15 years. It's one of my favorite movies of all-time, and taught me, among other things, that you can get fired on your day off, that it's tough to sell weed if you smoke it and that you can make a lot of money for a slip and fall in a store!

5 Facts About Bill Hall

2010-01-14T06:31:00.003-07:00

Acquired from Seattle by the Red Sox in the Casey Kotchman deal, Bill Hall has been in the Majors full-time since 2004, and debuted in 2002. The Red Sox are his third team, and he has spent most of his career in Milwaukee. Here are the five most interesting facts I could dig up about Hall's statistical resume:

1. Hall played 100+ games in the field at three different positions in three consecutive seasons - 127 games at shortstop in 2006, 130 games in center field in 2007 and 113 games at third base in 2008. I don't have a good way to look that up, but that has to be pretty rare, especially in modern times (post World War II).

2. Hall's batting average has declined for four straight seasons since his career high AVG of .291 in 2005, and his on-base and slugging percentages have declined for three straight seasons after he posted career highs in OBP (.345) and SLG (.553) in 2006.

3. Last season, Hall ranked tied for 139th in equivalent base running runs (EQBRR) when you combine his time in Milwaukee and Seattle. It's a solid but not spectacular rank in a season with 846 different player-team combos (as in, some players, such as Hall, are listed twice, as they played on different teams during the season). The bad news is that it was the first season in Hall's eight year career that he finished with a positive EQBRR score at all and also the first time he finished among the top 500 players. Going backwards from 2008 to 2002, he finished with the following ranks: 525, 795 (out of 854), 854 (out of 861), 630, 820 (out of 833), 631 and 558 in his cup of coffee in '02. For his career, Hall has been "worth" -13.6 EQBRR. Or to put it more simply, he has taken more than a win away from his team on the bases during his career.

4. For the past three seasons, Hall has been essentially a replacement player or worse - in all three seasons, he has been within one win of replacement level. In 2007, his WARP1 was .6, in 2008 it was -.1 and last year, cumulatively, it was -.5. Any positive value that Hall has maintained has been in his glove, as his EqA has not crossed the positive side of the league average .260 threshold, and his combined VORP the past three years is -13.1.

5. Hall has had very little success outside of Miller Park. For his career at Miller Park, he has hit .266/.320/.491 (an .811 OPS) in 1,482 plate appearances. Outside of Miller Park, he has hit .236/.299/.396 (a .695 OPS) in 1,586 plate appearances. For those scoring at home, that's an OPS drop off of 116 points for Hall once he leaves the great city of Milwaukee. His line isn't much better in AL parks either: .238/.290/.383 (.674 OPS) in 273 PA. A decidedly smaller sample, but still not very positive.

Next Up: I haven't decided, but I'm leaning towards Boof Bonser. Maybe if the Celtics make an acquisition, I'll go that route...

5 Facts About Adrian Beltre

2010-01-10T21:03:00.005-07:00

1. Over the past three seasons, Adrian Beltre had the third best defensive plus/minus rating in the Majors at +66, trailing only Chasey Utley (+82) and Albert Pujols (+71). In 2009, he was the sixth best overall.

2. Beltre has had a WARP1 higher than 3.1 twice in his career. The last time was in 2004, when he was worth 10.1 WARP1. In the five seasons since, he has been worth 10.6 WARP1 cumulatively.

3. Beltre's on-base percentage against right-handed pitching has gone down for three consecutive seasons, from .321 in 2006, to .314 in 2007, to .290 in 2008 and .271 in 2009. His .290 OBP in '08 was the 17th lowest in the Majors, and his .271 OBP in '09 was the fifth-lowest in the Majors (min. 250 PA vs. RHP).

4. Beltre is one of 17 third basemen in Major League history to win consecutive Gold Gloves.

5. In 2009, Beltre's Speed Score was the sixth best among third basemen (minimum 80 games started at third). His Speed Score of 4.3 is tied for 43rd all-time among third basemen (min. 6,000 PA), though only three of the players ahead of him on the list are still active - Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen and Alex Rodriguez. Beltre's Speed Score was better than all three of them in '09.

BONUS - Beltre is one of just 88 players to accumulate more than 6,000 plate appearances and primarily be a third baseman. Beltre is not thought of as old because he is still just 30 (2010 will be his age 31 season), but he has played in the Majors for 12 seasons.

5 Facts About Javier Vazquez

2010-01-05T20:54:00.005-07:00

1. Vazquez returns to New York a more consistent pitcher than when he left. Here is how Vazquez's quality start percentage breaks down:

Yrs.....QS%
'98-'03.....53%
'04.....50%
'05-'09.....57%

What's even more striking is that after a down year during 2006, his first in Chicago, he has posted even better numbers - 61% quality starts from 2007 to 2009. Here's how he stacks up against the other pitchers the Yankees have under contract for 2010 that started for the Yankees in 2009:

Pitcher.....QS% '07-'09
Sabathia.....69%
Burnett.....61%
Vazquez.....61%
Pettitte.....58%
Gaudin.....46%
Chamberlain.....44%
Mitre.....33%
Hughes.....32%

In other words, Vazquez should be a huge step up in consistency from the back-end options the Yankees were going to have available to them in 2010.

2. He has the right stuff. Starting in 2005, Vazquez has had an average Stuff score of 29.8, and an average Stuff rank of 12.8 (minimum 100 innings pitched). In the past three years, he has ranked fifth, 12th and seventh (again, minimum 100 innings pitched) among all MLB pitchers.

3. Vazquez fields his position well. He came in 14th in the 2009 Fielding Bible Awards for pitchers, and over the past three seasons he ranked seventh among pitchers in terms of fielding runs saved (10 runs) and eighth among pitchers in fielding plus/minus (+9).

4. Vazquez has tossed a lot of complete games, but he is not as efficient at it as some. With Randy Johnson retiring, Vazquez is now 11th in complete games among active pitchers, but he is also ninth among active pitchers in games started.

5. Vazquez has ranked 9th, 94th, 33rd, 93rd and 78th in ERA the last five years (minimum 100 innings pitched). Looks like one exceptional year, one very good year and three slightly above average year, yes? But his FIP ranks paint a different picture - 3rd, 31st, 26th, 23rd and 53rd.

Next Up: Adrian Beltre

2009 Holiday Mixes Explained

2010-01-04T20:15:00.003-07:00

Quick note - This is a little later than I anticipated putting this together, but I had a friend come into town last week unexpectedly, so this piece got bumped a bit.

For the fourth consecutive year, I put together two different mix CD's just before the holidays to mail to some good friends, and also for myself. The idea behind them is to put together mixes that give the best representation of the year possible, according to my tastes. They also serve as my version of a "best of the year" list. One of the mixes is the Underground Mix, and is made up almost entirely of underground hip-hop songs. Once in awhile, one of them will blow up and become a big hit. The best example of that is in 2007, when I included M.I.A.'s "Paper Planes" two months before it showed up in the trailer for Pineapple Express. At the end of the underground mix, I add a bonus holiday song or two. While I send this mix to everyone, I make it mostly for myself. I only know a couple of people who like underground hip-hop as much as I do. Most people like the second mix better. It's what I call the "Aboveground Mix." As in, the exact opposite of the Underground Mix. Whereas with the Underground Mix I look to include songs that were not chart toppers at all, the Aboveground Mix has evolved to become a mix that only includes songs that charted on the Billboard Hot 100, or a like-list if the song is British or Hispanic, etc. In this way they really become a good representation of the year in music, and while I started the mixes on a whim, now I spend a ton of time on them each year and try to do the best job I can. Outside of this basic framework, I have some simple guidelines:

1. Make sure the songs flow together. At this point in time, I realize most people I send these to are just uploading them into iTunes and don't listen to them in the order I lay them out in the CD, but some people, including myself, listen to them in their car, so I want to make sure that the CD flows properly.
2. Don't go too heavy on more than one-two artists. I like spreading the love around and giving a broad mix, but sometimes one or two (or three) people just have an outstanding year and deserve that recognition.
3. Try to lead off with a bang. I like to try and work in up-tempo songs at the start of each mix and get people in the groove early. I guess that's just the DJ in me, I'm always trying to get the party started! If I don't lead off with a bang, I try to start with a statement/tribute song.
4. On the underground mix, I try to find as obscure songs as I possibly can.
5. All of the songs had to be released for sale during 2009. I'm kind of a stickler about that, and end up leaving some songs off as a result. One example from this year would be Lady GaGa's "Just Dance," which was very popular in 2009 but was actually released in 2008.

The first three guidelines are guidelines that I try to use with any mix I make, and I make a lot of mix CD's, but they are heightened for the holiday mixes.

For the 2009 Aboveground Mix, I knew right off the bat that I was going to lead off with a Michael Jackson song. He was/is my favorite artist of all-time, and I thought that would be a nice tribute. Overall though, the Aboveground Mix was a bit tougher this year because of the presence of the Black Eyed Peas. Anyone that knows my music tastes know that I can't stand the Black Eyed Peas because of how callously and shallowly they transformed themselves. When people talk about selling out, they can look to the Black Eyed Peas as the textbook definition. And since they had the number one song on the Billboard Hot 100 for 26 straight weeks from April 18 to October 10, I had to work a little harder to find songs I liked. Here's the lineup, with Hot 100 rankings as of early December when I made the mix:

1. Michael Jackson and The Jacksons - This Is It (N/A)
2. Lady GaGa - Bad Romance - (9)
3. La Roux - Bulletproof (UK Singles Chart: 1)
4. Ke$ha - TiK ToK (10)
5. Jay-Z - Run This Town f/ Kanye West & Rihanna (2)
6. Kid Cudi - Day 'n' Nite (3)
7. Alicia Keys - Doesn't Mean Anything (60)
8. Lily Allen - The Fear (80)
9. Mariah Carey - Obsessed (7)
10. Kelly Clarkson - I Do Not Hook Up (20)
11. Don Omar - Virtual Diva (U.S. Billboard Hot Latin Songs: 10)
12. Eminem - Crack A Bottle f/ Dr. Dre & 50 Cent (1)
13. Miley Cyrus - Party In The USA (2)
14. Rihanna - Russian Roulette (9)
15. Shakira - She Wolf (11)
16. Keri Hilson - Knock You Down f/ Kanye West & Ne-Yo (3)
17. Drake - Best I Ever Had (2)
18. The Fray - You Found Me (7)
19. Jay-Z & Alicia Keys - Empire State of Mind (1)

I started with more of a statement/tribute than starting with the bang. When the King of Pop passes away, it's really the right thing to do. The song itself didn't chart on the Hot 100, but the album hit #1 the first week it was out, and since it's MJ, I made the exception. I "started" with a bang on track two. Not only does this song pop the top off the adrenaline lid, but Lady GaGa is definitely in that Michael Jackson/Madonna mode of the outlandish pop star from who we have come to expect the unexpected, and it seemed only fitting that she would follow Michael. And while "Paparazzi" may have shown the artistic side to Lady GaGa and proved she was a serious artist, I'll be honest - I just want to dance. Along with GaGa, there were several other newcomers who made the cut - La Roux, Ke$ha, Kid Cudi, Keri Hilson and Drake. They combined with mainstays like Jay-Z, Alicia Keys, Mariah Carey, Shakira and Rihanna to make a delicious mix. You may notice that I have the tendency to favor songs sung by women, and when it comes to popular music, that is definitely true. Guys like Flo Rida, Sean Kingston, Kevin Rudolf and Pitbull didn't ultimately do it for me. I would have included a Kings of Leon song, but technically "Use Somebody" was released in 2008, and guys like Akon and Linkin Park put out singles in 2009 that sounded remarkably like singles they put out in 2008 or 2007. That aside, it was an uncommonly good year for the ladies. Mariah had maybe the last good auto-tune song ever, "Russian Roulette" was Rihanna's defiant cry, "Party in the USA" showed that Miley Cyrus is more than just the cute kid from Hannah Montana and "She Wolf" is Shakira at her finest - witty but popular. "Feeling a little abused like a coffee machine in an office," might be the line of the year, and something I would expect to hear in a rap song, not a slinky pop song where the star dances inside an animal cage. The mix ends beautifully with the song that capped the year, "Empire State of Mind." It is about New York, but it's still an incredible anthem.

2009 Underground Mix:
1. Fresh Daily - Video Gamin'
2. Raekwon - House of Flying Daggers f/ Ghostface Killah, Method Man & Inspectah Deck
3. Capone 'n' Noreaga - Wobble f/ Mobb Deep
4. Dead Prez - Summertime
5. Superstar Quamallah - California Dreamin'
6. D-Block - Get That Paper
7. Edo G. & Masta Ace - Little Young
8. DJ JS-1 - Like This f/ Large Professor
9. Raekwon - Legacy f/ Xzibit & Murs
10. Jadakiss - Kiss My @$$
11. Dela - Long Life f/ Talib Kweli
12. Nas - If I Ruled The World '09 f/ Marsha Ambrosius
13. Wale - Shades f/ Chrisette Michelle
14. Clipse - Popular Demand (Popeyes) f/ Cam'ron & Pharrell
15. Q-Tip - Renaissance Rap Remix f/ Busta Rhymes & Raekwon
16. Mos Def - Supermagic
17. Ghostface Killah - Guest House f/ Fabolous
18. Method Man & Red Man - City Lights f/ Bun B
19. BeKay - Brooklyn Bride f/ Masta Ace
20. Reflection Eternal - Back Again
21. Cage - I Never Knew You
22. BONUS CHRISTMAS TRACK: Keyshia Cole - Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas

Quick aside: A long time ago, I started listening to acts like Jazzy Jeff and The Fresh Prince, A Tribe Called Quest, Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg and the Notorious B.I.G. My father questioned these music selections, so as any good Christian boy would do, I sought the counsel of my priest. He told me that as long as I was treating the music as entertainment, the same way we treat movies like Goodfellas as entertainment, and not as a way to live my life then it was okay. I mean, I loved Goodfellas, but that didn't mean I wanted to join the mob and rob Lufthansa airlines after I saw it. The same goes for hip-hop.

I absolutely loved Video Gamin'. There have been many songs to incorporate video game sounds, but this one does so seamlessly, it never feels forced or gimmicky. And with the Biggie sample for the chorus, it's gold Jerry, pure gold! Though i started with Fresh Daily, 2009 was really Raekwon's year. His comeback album, Only Built 4 Cuban Linx...Pt. II, dominated the underground scene, and though I only included one track off that album, I included two other hard-to-find cuts with the Chef on it. The first, "Legacy," was a cut off the Ninja Assassin soundtrack, a movie destined to move onto my list of "songs I liked from movies I've never seen" along with movies like Bulworth, Ghost Dog, High School High, Panther and Ride. Then there was "Renaissance Rap Remix," which is presumably a remix from Q-Tip's The Renaissance album, though there wasn't actually a track on it called "The Renaissance." Some of my other favorite cuts off this mix were the delightfully saracastic "Little Young," "Kiss My @$$" and "Popular Demand," as well as the creepy, melancholy "I Never Knew You," which really showed off Cage's maturity as an artist. It's still as haunting as his early work, but in this track he paints a vivid story rather than just dropping anecdotes (not that I don't love me a good anecdote). Finally, there is "Shades." There have been many deep songs about race, even by Wale himself (last year's "The Kramer"), but this one really touches on something that can go unnoticed by someone such as myself. Elsewhere, the album was choc full of mainstays like CNN, NaS (with a delightful remake of "If I Ruled The World" that was released only by Smirnoff in a half-baked attempt to seem cool), Method Man & Redman and Mos Def, who proved with The Ecstatic that he's still got his fastball (thank goodness). And newcomer BeKay had what I like to think of as the underground version of "Empire State of Mind" with his "Brooklyn Bridge" track.

Overall, I thought both mixes came out great, and as usual I got a lot of compliments on them. I can't wait to see what 2010 brings!

5 Facts About Curtis Granderson

2009-12-28T18:16:00.004-07:00

Most people know that Curtis Granderson's 2007 season is one of four seasons to belong to the 20-20-20-20 Club (20 homers, doubles, triples and stolen bases in the same season) along with Frank Schulte's 1911 season, Willie Mays' 1957 season and Jimmy Rollins' 2007 season. They also know that Granderson has a reputation for being an incredibly nice guy. Let's look a little bit further and get five more facts about one of the newest New York Yankees.

1. Granderson's 2007 and 2008 seasons stand out significantly from the rest of his career. His 2009 season opened doubts that Granderson has already peaked, which wouldn't be out of place given that his 2008 season was his age-27 season (typically a player's best season statistically). In 2007 and 2008, Granderson hit .292/.363/.524, for an OPS of .887. In his other seasons (2004-2006 & 2009) he hit .256/.329/.450, for an OPS of .778, or more than a 100 point difference.

2. In 2007, Granderson hit fastballs incredibly well. According to FanGraphs' wFB stat, he was 31.7 runs above average versus fastballs, good for ninth in all of baseball. In 2008, he dropped down to a respectable 14.9, good for 46th place. But last season, he fell all the way to 1.2, or 115th out of 153 qualifying players.

3. Defensively, Granderson is a big upgrade from Melky Cabrera. For his career, Cabrera has a Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) per 150 games of -2.4, while Granderson's mark is 5.2, almost a full win better. Granderson's +17 mark in center field was the third best in 2009 (Brett Gardner was the best Yankee at +11) and his +26 mark from 2007-2009 ranked seventh among center fielders. Cabrera did not factor in the top 10 of either leaderboard. Also, Granderson finished third in the 2009 Fielding Bible Awards for center field.

4. Among the 132 batters that had at least 150 plate appearances versus left-handed pitching in 2009, Granderson's isolated power (ISO) was the third lowest (only Scott Podsednik and Emilio Bonafacio were lower), his on-base percentage was second lowest (only Stephen Drew was lower) and his slugging percentage was the lowest overall by a wide margin.

5. Granderson is hard to double up. He has never grounded into more than seven double plays in a season, and last season he had the best GIDP% in the Majors, at a minuscule 0.94%. (minimum 50 GIDP opportunities) He grounded into only one double play in 106 opportunities. To put that in context, 132 players had 100 or more GIDP opportunities, and of that group, the next lowest GIDP total was four, by Grady Sizemore and Luke Scott.

Next up in the "5 Facts" series: Javier Vazquez
Next post: My 2009 "Aboveground" & "Underground" Mix CD's explained, coming Wednesday or Thursday

30 Things I Learned Reading the 2010 Bill James Handbook

2009-12-27T20:20:00.003-07:00

The Bill James Handbook, published each year by the good folks at Baseball Information Systems (BIS), is filled with endless stats and information. As James states toward the back of the book, it is designed to be a book of facts, a record of the season. The validity of some of the information may be questionable to some, including myself, but the breadth of the information presented is difficult to find anywhere else, and as such it makes the book an incredibly useful, and fun tool.

Below are 30 fun morsels of information I parceled out while reading/skimming the 2010 edition the past week and a half. For most, if not all of these, I looked at the data in-depth. In other words, I tried not to just regurgitate the information presented in the book. I kept it to 30, but there is so much more info in the book that I didn't even examine in-depth, such as the park indices, career register, the instant replay analysis and the manager's record. One could really keep themselves occupied with this book for a long, long time.

1. Eight teams had a winning road record. Six made the playoffs.
2. The NL West was the only division that did not play any games on turf.
3. Six teams beat an opponent 14 or more times: Tampa beat Baltimore 14 times, Detroit beat Cleveland 14 times, Seattle beat Oakland 14 times, the Dodgers beat Colorado 14 times, Philadelphia beat Washington 15 times and Boston beat Baltimore 16 times.
4. Two teams won 21 games in a month - Colorado did it in June and the Yankees did it in August.
5. 10 teams hit more home runs on the road than at home.
6. Seven teams had a team stolen base success rate of 75% or higher.
7. Only three teams grounded into less than 100 double plays - Arizona, Philadelphia and Texas.
8. Seven of the eight playoff teams were in the top 15 in "baserunning net runs gained," a stat that totals the number of runs gained while running the bases during play with the number of runs gained from stolen base attempts.
9. Michael Bourn, Rajai Davis, Ian Kinsler and Chase Utley were the only players that were +15 or greater in both baserunning and stolen base gain.
10. In addition to those four, Jason Bartlett, Brett Gardner, Torii Hunter, Matthew Kemp, Nick Punto, Willy Taveras, Jayson Werth and Randy Winn were all +10 or greater in both categories.
11. The Wests were the best baserunning divisions, the Centrals the worst and the Easts in between. Averaging the net gain on the bases of the teams by division, I find that the AL West had an average net gain of 56.75 runs, with the NL West second at 46.2. Then came the NL East at 28.6 and the AL East at 26.8, and then the AL Central at -2.0, and the NL Central dead last at -3.66.
12. Only eight pitchers had a "leverage index" of greater than or equal to 2.0 - David Aardsma, Heath Bell, Brian Fuentes, Brad Lidge, Jonathan Papelbon, Scot Shields, Joakim Soria and Brian Wilson (minimum two games pitched).
13. Only eight pitchers recorded three or more "tough saves," as defined by BIS - Bell, Ryan Franklin, Mike MacDougal, Papelbon, Chad Qualls, Mariano Rivera, Soria and Wilson.
14. 43 relief pitchers inherited 40 or more runners last season. Of that group, Jason Bergmann was the stingiest, as he allowed just 14% of his inherited runners to score.
15. 16 players had 10 or more pinch hits in 2009.
16. Five players hit three or more pinch hit home runs in 2009.
17. BIS has an unique way of tracking "manufactured runs." According to their totals, the Angels led baseball in this category, as they manufactured 50 more runs than their opponents. The Royals were at the opposite end of the spectrum. They manufactured 63 less runs than their opponents.
18. Nick Markakis had the most at-bats versus left-handed pitching, with 264.
19. Ryan Braun had the most at-bats versus right-handed pitching, with 516.
20. Prince Fielder, Raul Ibanez and Hideki Matsui led MLB with 13 home runs as left-handed batters against left-handed pitching.
21. Mark Reynolds led MLB with 36 homers as a right-handed batter versus right-handed pitching.
22. 23 hitters hit 10 or more home runs versus both left-handed and right-handed pitching. 12 of them were right-handed hitters (Jason Bay, Michael Cuddyer, Mark DeRosa, Aaron Hill, Ian Kinsler, Paul Konerko, Albert Pujols, Juan Rivera, Cody Ross, Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Upton and Werth), 10 were left-handed (Russell Branyan, Robinson Cano, Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Ibanez, Matsui, Justin Morneau, Carlos Pena, Luke Scott and Utley) and one was a switch hitter (Victor Martinez).
23. Only Joe Mauer and Kevin Youkilis were top 10 in the AL in on-base percentage versus both left-handed and right-handed pitching. In the NL, only Nick Johnson and Pujols were in the same group.
24. Outlier alert! BIS has a stat called BPS, which is batting average + slugging percentage. On pitches outside of the strike zone, Ben Zobrist had the best BPS score in the AL, with a score of .833. The second highest mark in the ALwas .671, and the highest NL mark was .663.
25. Looking at Bill James' Runs Created stat, we can see that Bay and Youkilis were the only players to rank in the top 10 in the AL in terms of "Runs Created per 27 Outs" against both left-handed and right-handed pitching. In the NL, there were also two who were in this group - Fielder and Pujols.
26. The two worst AL catchers in terms of percentage of runners caught stealing were Red Sox by the end of the season - Jason Varitek and Martinez. Only Yorvit Torrealba saved them from being the two worst in baseball.
27. Among the top seven active leaders in wins, only Pedro Martinez is not also top seven among players in losses.
28. Derek Holland was the one pitcher that had one of the ten best AL Game Scores as well as one of the 10 worst AL Game Scores.
29. During the decade, 17 players had a Win Share mark of 15 or better in five consecutive seasons. 11 players did it in six consecutive seasons, six did it in seven consecutive seasons, five did it in eight consecutive seasons, seven did it in nine consecutive seasons and five did it in every season of the decade. Those five players were Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Chipper Jones and Alex Rodriguez.
30. The single-best Win Shares season of the decade, and the only season over 40, was Pujols' mark of 41 in 2003. There were 16 other seasons of 35 or better. Pujols and Rodriguez had four seasons each, with Jason Giambi the only other player to do it more than once. None of the 17 seasons were turned in by pitchers, and 10 were turned in by first basemen.

5 Facts About Jeremy Hermida

2009-12-19T22:47:00.004-07:00

1. Jeremy Hermida's career year in 2007 was a pretty big aberration thus far. That season, he ranked 95th in VORP and 48th in EqA (minimum 300 plate appearances). In the other three years he saw regular playing time (2006, 2008 and 2009), he never ranked higher than 236 in VORP or 156th in EqA (again, minimum 300 PA).

2. Among NL right fielders over the last three years, Hermida is tied for eighth in Fielding Runs +/-.

3. Hermida has been essentially league average throughout his career. His career batting average is .265, compared to the "league batting average" of .268. His on-base percentage is .344, compared to a "league OBP" of .339. His slugging percentage is .425, compared to a "league SLG" of .429. Finally, his career EqA is .268, just slightly over the league average EqA of .260.

4. Though he has only hit 57 career homers, he has homered in 20 different ballparks, including every NL ballpark except Milwaukee. He has even thrown in both Shea Stadium and Citi Field for good measure.

5. Though Hermida has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching, both last year (.189/.289/.311 in 121 PA) and his career in general (.237/.321/.376 in 471 PA), he has been more than serviceable versus right-handed pitching. Last season, his .283 AVG vs. righties ranked 88th, and his .370 OBP ranked 60th (minimum 300 PA), and for his career his OPS against righties is almost 100 points higher than it is against lefties.

Bonus Observation - Hermida's comparables could lead him in a number of directions. Looking at his baseball-reference (similar batters through age 25) and Baseball Prospectus comps, there are players who washed out quickly after age 25, such as Leron Lee and Phil Kokos, players that continued to be role players such as Ed Kirkpatrick and Rick Reichardt, players that went on to be full-time regulars such as Mel Hall and Jose Guillen, and finally players who did better than that, such as Andy Van Slyke, George Kendrick, Dale Murphy and Adrian Gonzalez. But one name that is common to both lists, and should be of interest to Sox fans, is Dwight Evans. Through age 25, Evans hit .261/.337/.438 for a .775 OPS, with 65 homers and 851 total bases in 617 games and 2,212 plate appearances. Hermida, by comparison, has hit .265/.344/.425 for a .769 OPS, with 57 homers and 726 total bases in 516 games and 1,929 plate appearances. Of course, unlike Hermida, Evans also had a Gold Glove under his belt and had hit .292/.393/.542 in the '75 World Series by the time he finished his age 25 season. In any event, it is interesting to see how many different directions his comp list suggests.

Next Up: Curtis Granderson

Addendum to 5 Facts About Marco Scutaro

2009-12-19T21:44:00.003-07:00

After my post, I was a little disappointed that I didn't have the Fielding Runs Saved and +/- on Marco Scutaro, so while at Barnes & Noble, I bought the 2010 Bill James Handbook. In it, I found that Scutaro scores much better in both categories. In Fielding Runs Saved, he ranked fifth among shortstops in 2009, and sixth from 2007-2009. In Plus/Minus, he ranked fourth in 2009 among shortstops, and seventh from 2007-2009. So that's good news.

Up next: Jeremy Hermida

5 Facts About Marco Scutaro

2009-12-19T17:55:00.003-07:00

1. Marco Scutaro was signed for his defense, and while he wasn't bad last season, he certainly wasn't spectacular. He ranked only 87th overall in RZR in 2009, and just 17th among shortstops. Among UZR, he ranked only 66th, and just 14th among shortstops. He ranked just 14th in UZR/150 games among shortstops. Among shortstops, he was just 11th in Range Factor per nine innings and 10th in Range Factor per game. He ranked 15th among shortstops in double play runs above average. In terms of FRAA1 however, Scutaro scored fourth among shortstops and 28th overall. Finally, Scutaro fared better in 2008, at least in terms of FRAA1, as he was +11 in 2009 and +30 in 2008.

2. Last year, Scutaro's best overall season, he ranked 32nd overall in WARP1, with a total of 5.92. The only Red Sox player ranked higher was Jon Lester, at 28th with a WARP1 of 6.3.

3. For his career, Scutaro has hit righties better than lefties, a rarity for right-handed batters. However, much of that is owed to trouble against lefties earlier in his career. From 2002-2005, he hit only .221 against lefties, though with just 249 at-bats across four years, it wasn't a very large sample. In the past four seasons, he nearly doubled that total, as he amassed 446 at-bats against lefties and did much better, making himself about equal against lefties and righties:

..vs. LHP.. ...vs. RHP...
Years AB AVG AB AVG
'02-'05 249 .221 698 .268
'06-'09 446 .267 1348 .272

4. The Rogers Centre was not kind to Scutaro. His past two seasons in Toronto, he hit .242/.342/.370 at home, giving him a .712 home OPS, and .307/.381/.398 on the road, giving him a .779 road OPS.

5. Scutaro makes hard contact in the air more than most shortstops. In the past two seasons, 12 shortstops had 500 plate appearances or more in both seasons - Yuniesky Betancourt, Orlando Cabrera, Stephen Drew, Yunel Escobar, Christian Guzman, Derek Jeter, Hanley Ramirez, Edgar Renteria, Jimmy Rollins, Scutaro, Miguel Tejada and Ryan Theriot. Of the 12, Scutaro ranked second in both fly ball percentage and line drive percentage, and he ranked 11th in ground ball percentage. He also hit into the fifth fewest pop-ups. 52.15% of Scutaro's batted balls the past two seasons were either fly balls or line drives, which also ranks second among the 12 shortstops, behind only Stephen Drew. So if Scutaro can learn to pull the ball more frequently (he has only pulled the ball in 25% of his overall career plate appearances) he could really rack up the doubles at Fenway Park.

Five Facts about John Lackey

2009-12-19T10:18:00.004-07:00

I liked coming up with five facts about Mike Cameron so much, that I thought I'd do the same thing about John Lackey as well.

1. Lackey is 31st among active pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings, but look a little further and it becomes even better. Four of the pitchers that are ahead of Lackey are relievers - Trevor Hoffman, Arthur Rhodes, Mariano Rivera and Tom Gordon. There are also three pitchers who have been starters in their career, but will not be starters in the 2010 season - Kerry Wood, Kelvim Escobar and Chan Ho Park. Five more pitchers are Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Jason Schmidt and Matt Clement, who may be considered either only semi-active or not active at all. Clement for instance has not pitched since 2006. Finally, there is Oliver Perez, who posted a 6.82 ERA last year and whose role with the Mets going forward is less than clear. Take out those pitchers and you are left with Lackey as 18th among active pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings.

2. Last season, Lackey ranked 26th in the Majors in terms of FIP, with a mark of 3.73, .10 better than his real ERA of 3.83. He played behind a slightly below average defense last year in Anaheim according to Baseball Prospectus' defensive efficiency, which accounts for why his FIP is only slightly lower than his real ERA. Expect that to change in 2009 with the Sox, as the defense behind Lackey should be better than it was last year at the key spots where Anaheim struggled. Gary Matthews, who played 91 games last season, had an FRAA of -16 last year. Jeremy Hermida, who is likely going to be in the same role as Matthews was last year - at least in terms of playing time - had a +3 FRAA last year in a bigger outfield in Florida. As for the other Sox outfielders? J.D. Drew and Mike Cameron scored +4, and while Jacoby Ellsbury was a -11, he a) should only get better as he gets more playing time and b) may have seen a one-year blip in his mark, as he was +16 in 2008. Another major difference should be at shortstop. Last year, Erick Aybar had a -2 FRAA, and Maicer Izturis a -8. Marco Scutaro on the other hand, had a FRAA of +8, more than one-win difference.

3. One potential problem for Lackey could be home runs. For his career, 35% of his balls in play have been fly balls, but his career HR/fly ball percentage is a small 9.3, not surprising since he played in a large park in Anaheim, and routinely got to pitch in the caverns that are Safeco Field and whatever it is they're calling Oakland's ballpark these days. That could change in Fenway. While it's difficult to take his Fenway starts too seriously, since he was playing good Red Sox teams, but he has allowed eight home runs in 51.2 career innings at Fenway, good for 1.4 HR/9 innings, or 0.5 higher than his career mark.

4. Of the other five current Red Sox starters - Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield - Lackey throws his fastball (62.2% of the time) only less frequently than Beckett (65.9%), but also at a slower velocity (91.1 MPH) than everyone except for Wakefield (74.5). Lackey also throws his curve ball more frequently than any other current Sox starter - 23% of the time. Beckett, Buchholz and Lester's curve balls range from 16.1-20.8%, while Matsuzaka and Wakefield are in the 4.2-5.2% range.

5. For his career, Lackey shows virtually no second-half split - 3.83 ERA in the first half compared with 3.79 in the second. However, looking just at the past four seasons, he has been a much better first half pitcher, with a 3.18 ERA in the first-half compared with 3.83 in the second half, and that is taking into account how much trouble he had last year, when he struggled when he came back from his injury when he came back in mid-May. From 2006 to 2008, he posted first-half ERAs of 2.88, 2.91 and 2.46. Unfortunately, in those years he also posted second-half ERAs of 4.41, 3.14 and 4.99.

Next up: Marco Scutaro

Avatar

2009-12-18T03:29:00.003-07:00

Tonight, I went to the midnight showing of Avatar with a friend, sparing my wife, who I have dragged to many midnight showings, none of which she ever wanted to attend, but did because she's the best. But I digress. In the first sentence.

I was blown away by Avatar. The world of Pandora, its inhabitants and their modes of communication, are stunning. I say "modes of communication" rather than "language" because the Na'vi people communicate with the planet and its animals as well as they do with each other.

But I was more blown away when I got home. I generally don't like to read movie reviews of a movie I am highly anticipating before I head to the multiplex, and this case was no different. However, I did happen to read the title of David Chen's review on SlashFilm - "Epic Filmmaking, Epically Bad Dialogue" - inadvertently as I was scrolling through the site last week. So I took that observation with me into the film. Upon my return tonight, or this morning, whichever you prefer, I revisited and read that review, along with Russ Fischer's, Owen Gleiberman's and Peter Travers'. They all reference the same thing as Chen - bad dialogue. And this is why movie critics are generally ignored by the public.

The problem with complaining about dialogue is that these - and most other reviewers - fail to see the elemental issue. This is how normal people talk. These reviews complain about dialogue such as "fight terror with terror," and call it "stilted." Stephen Lang, who plays Colonel Miles Quartich, is described as having "bitter intensity," as a "vicious military roughneck," and possibly the "most intense villain of the year." Forgive me if I think a character described as such isn't about to deliver a Shakespearean soliloquy. "Fight terror with terror" is exactly how this man would talk.

Which leads us back to the critics, who for the most part have two fundamental problems. First, they spend so much time watching "films" that are so disconnected from reality that they have a hard time appreciating it. Now, I have never met any of these reviewers, nor the people I grew up reading in the Worcester Telegram & Gazette, or read later in the Boston Globe and Denver Post. But I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that their jobs preclude them from interacting too much with military personnel. Now, that's not to say that I have a wealth of first-hand experience myself, but from the little I have seen, Avatar's "stilted" dialogue actually rang very true. The second problem is that critics are paid to be critical. No one wants to be the critic who says a movie is perfect, and so when presented with a visual masterwork like Avatar, the easy money is to rip apart the story and its dialogue. Was the story of Avatar perfect? No, but it also didn't spend a lot of time holding your hand either. You learn that the military presence is not actually the US military, but rather contracted forces, in one line. If you missed that line, tough. I love that. But two of the reviews I read complain that the story was rushed. You simply can't win with critics.

In the end, Avatar isn't perfect. It could have easily been longer, but I read somewhere that IMAX movies set a time limit, necessitating the two hours, forty minute total run time. I hope that a Director's Cut does emerge, a longer cut of the movie that does build on the story more. But to say it was rushed, or that the dialogue is awful, is taking things too far, and is one of the reasons why average moviegoers have, and will likely continue, to ignore movie critics.

5 More Things About Mike Cameron

2009-12-16T06:27:00.004-07:00

The Boston Globe ran a piece this morning entitled "Five Things About Mike Cameron." Here's five more:

1. The Sox will be Cameron's seventh Major League team and 2010 his 16th Major League season. The Sox will be his first American League team since 2003, when he finished a four-year stint with the Seattle Mariners. Aside from Jason Varitek, Cameron is now the Red Sox's oldest player as of today.

2. Cameron is remarkably consistent offensively. His EqA has been between .270 and .293 in each of the past 11 seasons.

3. August has generally been his best month, but September has been his worst. Looking at his OPS by month, we can see that he starts off medium in March/April, with a .771 OPS. From May-July, his OPS is about the same each month - .799 in May, .787 in June and .796 in July. In August however, it shoots up to .840 before shooting down to .724. The September swoon has been a particular issue recently for Cameron. Since Cameron became a regular in '97, he has played in 12 September's, missing only 2005 after his frightful collision with Carlos Beltran. Breaking up those 12 years into six-year blocks, we can see the following negative trend about his September performance:

Years Sept OPS
1997-2002: .815
2003-2009: .657

A .657 OPS is unlikely to cut during the pennant race that the Sox figure to be in next season, but keep in mind Cameron has played 92% of his career in center field and all but 10 of the remaining 149 games in right field. It is unlikely he will be asked to do that for the Sox, and it is also unlikely that he will play every day.

4. The Globe alluded to the fact that Cameron is productive despite not hitting for a high average. One of the reasons he does not hit for a high average is his strikeout totals. Cameron is 11th all-time in strikeouts, and second among active players to Jim Thome, and Thome may retire this offseason. But that's not necessarily a bad thing. The next four names behind him on the active player leader board are Ken Griffey, Jr., Manny Ramirez, Carlos Delgado and Alex Rodriguez. While Cameron doesn't have their offensive pedigree, he is no scrub. He is currently 33rd all-time in home runs, with 265.

5. While their actual dollar values should be taken with a grain of salt, Fan Graphs had Cameron ranked as the 40th most valuable position player in the Majors last year, and 57th overall. On the Red Sox, only Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez and J.D. Drew ranked higher.

Is Tom Brady Over The Hill?

2009-12-01T20:24:00.004-07:00

Last night's New England at New Orleans game was an out-an-out drubbing. And while Drew Brees and his merry band of men were outstanding last night, part of the reason is the incredibly poor play from Tom Brady. It was a rare game where Brady was bad both visually and statistically. He was perpetually throwing off his back foot, and once the Saints took the lead, the play-calling was woefully predictable. When a street free agent like Mike McKenzie can consistently jump routes, it's a sign that either the play-calling is predictable or the quarterback is telegraphing his throws. Neither of those options are good.

Looking for solace, I turned to Brady's pro-football-reference.com game log to see if this was Brady's worst regular season game. I ended up feeling even more depressed. Using QB rating as the judge, last night's game was Brady's tenth worst game overall, but since one of those was his pro debut, when he went one-for-three as a backup in 2000 against Detroit. Another one was the final game of the 2005 season, when the Pats had already clinched a playoff berth, and Brady started the game against the Dolphins but gave way to Matt Cassel after eight passing attempts, so we won't count that game either. So we can safely say that last night was Brady's eighth worst regular season performance ever. So while it is troubling in and of itself that Brady had seven worse regular season starts, the distribution of these abysmal starts is perhaps even more troubling. Breaking these into two season chunks of Brady's career, we can see the following negative trend:

Games 2-32: Three of the worst games
Games 33-64: Zero
Games 65-96: Two
Games 97-124: Three

To recap, five of Brady's worst eight starts have come in the second half of his career. Brady is now 32 years old. How many QB's can be consistent week in and week out when they're 32, when they've started 120+ games in the NFL. A lot was made of the fact that Brady passed Bledsoe in passing yards last night, and that he did it in the same number of games as did Bledsoe. What was left unsaid in that statement was how Bledsoe's career tailed off after he left the Pats. He was good that first year in Buffalo, posting a QB rating of 86.0, with a completion percentage of 61.5% and 24 TDs against 15 INTs for an 8-8 Buffalo squad. In the four years after 2002, Bledsoe had an average QB rating of 75.6, and never completed better than 60.1% of his passes.

Now, am I saying that Tom Brady is washed up right this second? Of course not, he just had four straight weeks of 300+ yards passing. But his body type is very similar to Drew Bledsoe's, and his lack of mobility was one of the reasons why he was a sixth round draft pick in the first place. There have been two teams that have blitzed the Pats successfully this year - the Jets and the Saints. In both games, Brady repeatedly threw off his back foot or threw to his first read. In the Jets game, the generally accepted notion (I am guilty here as well) was that Tom Terrific was shaking off the rust. But the same Brady that was seen in the Jets game - which not coincidentally was his seventh worst regular season start - was seen last night. I think it is now fair game to question whether or not Brady is over the hill. I'm not saying definitively that he is, but last night's game certainly wasn't encouraging.

Anatomy of a Four-and-Out

2009-11-16T06:47:00.003-07:00

With a 31-14 lead 42 seconds into the fourth quarter, this post shouldn't have been necessary. But Peyton Manning's skills are set to All-Madden these days, and the New England defense, though their time is coming, they are still a bit young and without Ty Warren and Jarvis Green, the defensive line was thin last night. That's not an excuse for blowing a 17-point lead, but even with these facts, they almost held on. But there was that four-and-out, conceivably the four most critical regular season plays of the entire decade. Let's go through it play-by-play.

First down and 10, ball on NE 20, 2:23 left. NE has two time outs, IND has three.
Here's the first red flag - the Pats called time out before the play. Now, no matter the reason, there is no excuse for calling a time out on first down when you've had 1:49 of game time plus commercials to develop a strategy. Bill O'Brien, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady (and Brian Hoyer) had plenty of time to call, not just one, but two or three plays. What made the decision to call the time out even more egregious was the fact that they ran the same predictable play they had been running all game. When you are in the middle of the field and mixing run and pass, it's a good call. When you're trying to run out the clock and only have a minimum of blockers, the shotgun draw is not a good call, or even a defensible call.

Second down and 10, ball on NE 20, 2:18 left. NE one time out, IND two.
This is more like it. A quick, eight-yard pass to Welker. Indy wrapped him up quick, stopping him just short of the first down, which set up the drama.

Third down and two, ball on NE 28, 2:11 left. Each team has one time out.
This was the worst call. If you are determined to get the first down at all costs, then you should be running for the first down at all costs. And if they didn't know if they would go for it on fourth down before this play was ran, then that's an even worse mistake. Either way, you HAVE to be running on this play. You HAVE to make Indy use their last time out. Finally, the play they ran was incredibly risky. Yes, you want to get the ball in Welker's hands, but not on a route that far to the sideline. There is always a risk of getting that picked off, and Jerraud Powers had played the receivers tough all game, and most of Welker's catches (both last night and in his entire Pats tenure) were made when he was wide open. Welker needs certain plays run for him to succeed, and that play was not it. The ball should have been going to Moss or Faulk, each of whom are well versed in catching the ball in traffic.

Fourth down and two, ball on NE 28, 2:08 left. NE is out of time outs, IND has one time out.
I have thought about this a lot overnight, and I haven't looked at any "analysis" of the game that would color my opinion. I like the decision to go for it. While Manning could have thrown his third pick of the night, he had also marched the Colts 79 yards in five plays and 2:04, as well as 79 yards in six plays in 1:49, in the fourth quarter already, both times without the benefit of a time out. Now you were going to give him a time out to play with, and at best, 70-75 yards to go. Hanson was averaging 44 yards a punt with a long of 55, and Indy had not returned a punt all game. Let's be conservative and say that the punt has a net of 45 yards. That puts the ball on the Indy 27, with two minutes to go and a time out in his pocket. Okay, well that's basically the scenario Manning had already pulled off twice in the quarter already. Not to mention the defense was more tired than they were for those two drives. Either way, the Colts have to score seven, but in the other scenario, the defense only has to cover 30 yards. For a gassed defense, that could be viewed as a positive.

On the other hand, you could make the case that the Colts didn't score until they almost used the whole clock to do so. True, but they ran off a lot of time after Addai's two runs that they wouldn't have wasted had they needed to get down the field. And they still had their time out in their pocket when they scored.

As for the call to throw the pass in the flat to Faulk, I have no problem with that call on fourth down. It's a play that Brady and Faulk have been executing for a decade, and I had confidence it would work. In those situations, you have to go with your bread and butter. Now, maybe that was the problem, maybe the Colts sniffed it out. Maybe the throw was off the mark, or maybe Faulk just juggled it, or maybe...maybe doesn't matter. The Pats didn't get it done there, but I applaud the call. In hindsight, you could say that they should have been looking for Moss, or maybe running the old direct snap where Faulk steps in front of Brady and Brady pretends the ball was snapped over his head, which is another classic Patriots short yardage play. But they should have never been in this situation, and may not have been had they run on third down. That is the play to question.

In the end, the game was crushing for the Pats, but the young'ns need to be punched in the mouth a few times. The second year guys have the Jets OT loss, and everyone has the Broncos OT loss and this game. It will make the defense stronger, and it gives Belichick some coaching to do. But I find the media amusing. I did see one headline. My home page is espn.com, and their headline when I logged on this morning was "Bill Gambles...Colts Win." Had the Patriots succeeded there, we would have been treated to a week of "Belichick Knows All" stories. Bottom line - The call to go for it on fourth down was not the wrong call, the decision to call a time out before first down and the decision to throw on third down were the mistakes.

Ty Warren Inactive Instant Reaction

2009-11-15T17:54:00.003-07:00

Ty Warren is an inactive tonight against Indy. My first reaction to this was 'crap, we're screwed.' Then I calmed down and thought about it. Ty Warren's main impact this year has been on rushing downs, as he only has one sack so far on the season, and only has three sacks since the start of 2008. But will the Pats run D really miss Warren against Indy? Yes, it certainly means playing rookies like Myron Pryor and Ron Brace more, but let's look at Indy's rushing offense.

Entering today's games, Indy was 28th in rushing yards per game at 85.4, 27th in yards per carry at 3.7 and 29th in total rushing yards. Maybe Indy will use this personnel change to focus on the run game, but perhaps it won't matter.

In any case, I will still ride the Patriots 27-Colts 20 prediction.

My Top 100 Movies, Ver. 3.0

2009-11-14T12:00:00.003-07:00

My top 100 movies is an idea I like to have fun with more than anything. It's completely unscientific, and it's certainly not an AFI ranking of the "best" movies ever. It's just the movies that I enjoy the most. This is my third go round, I do one per year. Usually I do it in the summer, but this summer I never really got around to it. For the first two runs, check here and here. This year, not as many films broke through to the top 100, though the ones that did I think were well deserved, and I think I cut out some good fat from the previous year's list. Let's start there.

Movies That Fell Out of My Top 100 (Previous Year's Rank)
- i Robot (54)
- Star Wars, Episode II: Attack of the Clones (58)
- Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (66)
- National Treasure (74)
- XXX (the one with Vin Diesel) (78)
- Ocean's Eleven (new) (83)
- The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (92)
- The Burbs (93)
- Knocked Up (98)

Looking back, the first three on this list were just not well acted. I had forgiven this point because the action is really first rate, and I enjoyed the plots, even if they are a bit far fetched. But there was no longer room for them, enjoy them though I do. National Treasure and XXX suffer from the same problem, with National Treasure losing points also for plot ridiculousness and for its putrid sequel. Is it fair to tie movies to their sequels? No, not really, but only in rare exceptions (like say taking 20+ years to make three prequels) do you get to separate them in my opinion. The final four on this list simply got bumped for better movies.

Movies That Jumped Into My Top 100
93. Se7en - For some reason, this movie had always evaded me. I finally saw it this year after my boss' fervent and frequent recommendation, and it didn't disappoint. It kept me on my toes the entire time, and if anything, I wish it had been a little longer, that we had more time to flesh out the back and forth between Kevin Spacey and Morgan Freeman and Brad Pitt.

92. Inglourious Basterds - Quentin Tarantino at his seat squirmingly finest. As it so often does in a Tarantino film, everything came together beautifully at the end. I was sort of hoping that the three daughters of the Frenchman in the opening scene would be some sort of expert killing team and would murder all of the Germans out in the car while Col. Landa was inside, chatting and drinking milk with the father. Brad Pitt was great in his role, and the only thing likely to keep from an Oscar win is the fact that he really wasn't on screen all that much throughout the movie.

91. Fletch - Another movie that had slipped through the cracks. I feel like if I have a hard time grasping how funny Chevy Chase really was in the '80's, and I at least have seen (and own) Caddyshack and Spies Like Us, then how will today's kids know? It's not going to be from his role in Community, as he is sort of one-dimensional on that show. But Fletch was teriffic, the way he always was flying by the seat of his pants yet seemed perfectly in control at the same time. If only he had been a Clippers fan instead of a Lakers fan. Oh well.

84. Zombieland - This movie is just too much fun. It may not have the most original plot (zombies want to eat us, kill them first) but it does have some great acting - in addition to the always solid Jesse Eisenberg and Woddy Harrelson, I am a big Emma Stone fan. With Superbad, The House Bunny, The Rocker and now Zombieland, she has put together a pretty solid comedy resume, and is pretty easy on the eyes to boot. Paired with the great acting was some great action, and a narrative plot device that was forgivable for its humor. And it had a great Bill Murray cameo. This is a movie I can easily see myself watching over and over.

81. Lethal Weapon - The first of the four part saga had somehow evaded my rankings. While I don't enjoy it as much as I enjoyed Part II, this is a fantastic action movie and I had to get it into the ranking, bumping it just ahead of Lethal Weapon IV.

64. Star Trek (new) - You couldn't ask for a better reboot to the once proud franchise, unless of course you are a hardcore Trekkie, and then nothing was going to satisfy you. But I think hardcore Trekkies had sort of lost the right to complain about the direction of their favorite franchise. Prior movies like Insurrection and Nemesis had been completely forgettable footnotes in the Star Trek catalogue, and it was time for some new blood. And while I have heard that some things were changed - for better or worse is debatable I suppose - I have been going back and rewatching the original movies, and I have found that some things weren't changed. For instance, the scene in the reboot where Kirk defeats/cheats the Kobayashi Maru test is just the same as Kirk describes how he beat it in The Wrath of Khan. In all, for someone like me who remembers the existence of the glory days of the shows/movies if not the details, it was a job well done by J.J. Abrams and Co.

42. Slumdog Millionaire - I am happy to say that I was in on the greatness of this movie early. I read a lot about it before it was released, and scored tickets to see a screening of it before it was released as well. Unfortunately my wife was unable to attend that screening with me, so I ended up seeing it twice in the theatre. I enjoyed it so much that I even bought the soundtrack. It is just a fantastic romantic adventure, the likes of which are rarely seen in today's Hollywood. If you don't melt when Jamal kisses Latika's scar at the end of the movie, then you must be a cyborg, because you clearly have no heart.

34. Up - This wasn't a romantic adventure the same way Slumdog was, but it was a true adventure of fulfilling one's dreams, even if it came 40-50 years later than planned. It's the kind of movie that makes you cling to hope, and as we all know, hope is a good thing. I furiously debated whether or not to bump this ahead of Wall-E and crown it my favorite Pixar movie ever, but I just couldn't do it, slotting it in just one behind the lovable robot. Maybe next year after I have had a chance to watch Up over and over on DVD, but for right now, no.

28. The Hangover - This one loses points for sheer ridiculousness - as Bill Simmons points out in the Book of Basketball, it takes a pretty big leap of faith to think they did all those things during 10 hours. And it takes a smaller leap of faith to believe they could keep a tiger concealed in their room and then their car without anyone finding out about it. I'm also getting a tiny bit tired of Ken Jeong's shtick, but it was still pretty funny. But other than that, this movie was absolutely hilarious. The Rain Man parody, the scenes with the baby, getting the wrong Doug, talking the cops out of being arrested, having the tux guy throw tuxes to them while driving, the re-tard, the wolf pack, Mike Tyson. Classic.

Biggest Movers (movies that were already in the Top 100, but moved around in it)
88 to 63 - Forgetting Sarah Marshall - This movie is permanently house on my DVR. You can pretty much pick it up at any point in the movie and get a good laugh. It keeps moving up the list (and may very well move up more next year) because even the sad, depressing parts are still a little funny. It doesn't bring you way down the way Knocked Up does.

35 to 65 - Transformers: The Movie - Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen was so bad that it knocked this movie down significantly. While the original is still pretty fun and still has Megan Fox leaning over a hood, the sequel was so god-awful that I can't imagine wanting to pop in the original as frequently anymore.

67 to 100 - Spider-Man 2 - The same thing has happened with Spidey. I just don't pop this one in anymore, and it's at least partially due to how bad part three was. I'm starting to see all kinds of stories about part four, but they are going to have to do a damn good job to take the bad taste of three out of my mouth. Spider-Man was one of my favorite comics as a kid, so that stayed the execution of part two from the list for one more year, but it may be a slow death in the end.

So that's it. A solid but unspectacular year at the movies. Nothing changed in my top 25, and only nine movies pushed their way in, as opposed to 11 the year before. Below is the full list, with the previous two year's rank in parentheses. Movies that I'm looking forward to seeing that may end up on the list next year include upcoming releases like Avatar, The Men Who Stare At Goats, Up In The Air, A Couple of Dicks, The Losers, Kick-Ass, Iron Man 2, The Expendables, as well as movies in my Netflix queue that I haven't seen, such as Sugar, Gran Torino, the Alien(s) trilogy, Hoosiers and Spirited Away.

Top 100 Movies (Ver 2.0 rank, Ver 1.0 rank)
100. Spider-Man 2 (67, 67)
99. Miracle (100, 95)
98. Harold & Kumar Go To White Castle (94, 73)
97. Superbad (99, -)
96. The Girl Next Door (97, 74)
95. Indiana Jones: Raiders of the Lost Ark (96, -)
94. Lock, Stock & Two Smoking Barrels (95, 93)
93. Se7en (-, -)
92. Inglourious Basterds (-, -)
91. Fletch (-, -)
90. Star Wars, Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (86, 81)
89. Mallrats (89, -)
88. Slap Shot (91, 84)
87. Ferris Bueller's Day Off (89, -)
86. The Bourne Supremacy (85, 88)
85. The Silence of the Lambs (84, 80)
84. Zombieland (-, -)
83. Blue Brothers (87, 97)
82. Lethal Weapon IV (82, 76)
81. Lethal Weapon (-, -)
80. 48 Hours (81, 75)
79. Saving Silverman (80, 68)
78. Indiana Jones: The Last Crusade (79, 72)
77. Running Scared (75, 56)
76. Die Hard With a Vengeance (76, 69)
75. Back To The Future 2 (62, 65)
74. Mean Girls (77, 70)
73. Monsters, Inc. (73, -)
72. Ratatouille (72, -)
71. Rounders (71, 64)
70. Thank You For Smoking (70, -)
69. Wedding Crashers (69, 58)
68. Godfather II (65, -)
67. Rocky II (64, 63)
66. Rocky (63, 62)
65. Transformers: The Movie (35, 22)
64. Star Trek (new) (-, -)
63. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (88, -)
62. Aladdin (68, 98)
61. Chronicles of Riddick: Pitch Black (61, 60)
60. Bad Boys (60, 59)
59. Lethal Weapon II (59, 57)
58. The Bourne Identity (57, 53)
57. Menace II Society (56, 52)
56. Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story (55, 48)
55. Super Troopers (53, -)
54. The Departed (52, 51)
53. Back To The Future (51, 50)
52. Total Recall (50, 49)
51. The Fugitive (49, 47
50. Coming To America (48, 46)
49. Independence Day (47, 44)
48. Toy Story (46, -)
47. Goldeneye (44, 42)
46. The Rock (43, 23)
45. Beverly Hills Cop (45, 43)
44. Stripes (42, 40)
43. Enemy of the State (41, 38)
42. Slumdog Millionaire (-, -)
41. Batman Begins (31, 14)
40. The Program (40, 37)
39. True Lies (39, 36)
38. Spaceballs (38, 35)
37. Happy Gilmore (33, 33)
36. The Incredibles (37, 41)
35. Live Free or Die Hard (32, 27)
34. Up (-, -)
33. Wall-E (34, -)
32. Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy (26, 25)
31. Ghostbusters (30, 31)
30. The Godfather (36, 34)
29. The Terminator (28, 29)
28. The Hangover (-, -)
27. Trading Places (29, 30)
26. Top Gun (27, 26)
25. Ironman (25, -)
24. Goodfellas (24, 24)
23. The Princess Bride (23, 28)
22. Billy Madison (22, 45)
21. Casino (21, 18)
20. V for Vendetta (20, 21)
19. Die Hard (19, 20)
18. Animal House (18, 19)
17. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, Extended Version (17, 16)
16. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Extended Version (16, 15)
15. Office Space (15, 13)
14. The Simpsons Movie (14, 6)
13. Scarface (13, 11)
12. Terminator 2: Judgment Day (12, 17)
11. Who Framed Roger Rabbit? (11, 12)
10. Major League (10, 10)
9. Friday (9, 9)
8. The Dark Knight (8, -)
7. Gladiator (7, 8)
6. Old School (6, 7)
5. The Shawshank Redemption (5, 5)
4. Braveheart (4, 4)
3. Star Wars, Episode VI: Return of the Jedi (3, 3)
2. Star Wars, Episode V: The Empire Strikes Back (2, 2)
1. Star Wars, Episode IV: A New Hope (1, 1)

Notes:
Nine Best Picture winners in Top 100:
- Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
- The Departed (2006)
- LOTR: Return of the King (2003)
- Gladiator (2000)
- Braveheart (1995)
- The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
- Rocky (1976)
- The Godfather, Part II (1974)
- The Godfather (1972)

22 Movies in the Top 100 of All-Time World Box Office in Top 100:
- LOTR: Return of the King (#2)
- The Dark Knight (4)
- LOTR: Fellowship of the Ring (18)
- Star Wars, Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (19)
- Independence Day (21)
- Star Wars, Episode IV: A New Hope (23)
- Spider-Man 2 (26)
- Transformers: The Movie (33)
- Up (36)
- The Incredibles (40)
- Ratatouille (43)
- Star Wars, Episode VI: Return of the Jedi (52)
- Iron Man (53)
- Star Wars, Episode V: The Empire Strikes Back (60)
- Wall-E (61)
- Monsters, Inc. (62)
- The Simpsons Movie (64)
- Terminator 2: Judgment Day (66)
- Aladdin (67)
- Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade (68)
- The Hangover (77)
- Gladiator (81)

The New England Patriots New Foundation

2009-10-28T15:32:00.012-06:00

The New England Patriots have quietly re-established the talent base on the defensive side of the football. During the past two seasons, the Pats have drafted 11 players on defense. Many have complained that the Pats have missed a lot of impact players in the draft. However, looking at the composition of the defense this year, that's not the case at all. Last year saw three solid contributors added to the squad. One of course is stud linebacker Jerod Mayo. Second is cornerback Jonathan Wilhite, taken in the fourth round. Wilhite has played in 22 of the 23 games since being drafted, and has been a solid contributor and at times a starter. And while that may not be good enough for some fans of the team, it is instructive to look at two other Belichick cornerbacks - Asante Samuel and Ellis Hobbs:

Rookie Year Stats
- Samuel, 2003: 16 G, 1 GS, 29 tackles, 5 assists, 2 INT, 9 passes defensed
- Hobbs, 2005: 16 G, 8 GS, 35 tackles, 9 assists, 3 INT, 12 passes defensed
- Wilhite, 2008: 16 G, 4 GS, 20 tackles, 4 assists, 1 INT, 2 passes defensed

Wilhite's stats aren't completely on the same level, but they're not incredibly different either. What's most important for me is that like Samuel and Hobbs, Wilhite played in all 16 games as a rookie, something that Belichick doesn't always allow. However, while they played a lot as rookies, Samuel and Hobbs didn't become 16-game starters until their third season. Right now, Wilhite is on track to become as solid of a contributor.

Third is a guy that wasn't actually taken in the draft, but Gary Guyton was part of the 2008 rookie class as an undrafted free agent. When Mayo went down earlier this season, Guyton stepped in at middle linebacker, and the team hardly skipped a beat. Now that Mayo is back, the Mayo-Guyton combo has solved the linebacker issues of last season.

The 2009 draft has borne just as much fruit. The Pats first pick in the draft, safety Patrick Chung, has been seeing more and more playing time as the weeks have progressed, and recently intercepted his first pass. Another second round pick, cornerback Darius Butler, is already a starter. Sixth round pick Myron Pryor has started subbing in on the defensive line, and has already forced his first fumble. This week, he was praised by Belichick in the Boston Globe. Since Belichick rarely praises anyone, take that as a strong endorsement.

The question was put to me to answer were the Patriots truly struggling early on or were they purposefully baptizing these new players so that they could wreck shop in the second half. My answer is neither, but the Pats should be back to their powerhouse ways after the bye week. In Vince Wilfork, Mayo and Meriweather the Pats have their new version of Seymour, Bruschi and Harrison - a trio that will dominate each area of the defense, but this trio could be even better, because of the differences between Seymour and Wilfork. The key to being a great defense in football (and in baseball actually) is to be great from the middle out. While he spent some time in the middle, Seymour was mostly an edge rusher, while Wilfork is planted firmly in the middle. In Ty Warren, Wilfork, Meriweather, Mayo and Guyton, the Pats have five players that they either drafted or signed as undrafted free agents starting on defense, with the potential to have as many as nine with Tully Bunta-Cain, Wilhite, Butler and James Sanders/Chung. That is simply unheard of in today's NFL. And with Jarvis Green, Pryor, 2005 undrafted free agent Mike Wright and Pierre Woods as backups, the Pats D is largely homegrown at this point. Take a look at the defensive snaps played this past week, courtesy of the incomparable Mike Reiss:

ILB Jerod Mayo -- 56 of 61........................2008 draft pick
S Brandon Meriweather -- 56 of 61............2007 draft pick
S Brandon McGowan -- 56 of 61................free agent
DE/OLB Derrick Burgess -- 53 of 61...........trade
CB Leigh Bodden -- 53 of 61.......................free agent
DE/OLB Tully Banta-Cain -- 50 of 61..........2003 draft pick
CB Darius Butler -- 49 of 61........................2009 draft pick
ILB Gary Guyton -- 47 of 61.......................2008 undrafted free agent
CB Jonathan Wilhite -- 47 of 61..................2008 draft pick
S Pat Chung -- 36 of 61................................2009 draft pick
DE Ty Warren -- 27 of 61............................2003 draft pick
DL Myron Pryor -- 26 of 61........................2009 draft pick
DT Vince Wilfork -- 24 of 61.......................2004 draft pick
DL Jarvis Green -- 23 of 61........................2002 draft pick
OLB Adalius Thomas -- 18 of 61.................free agent
ILB Junior Seau -- 16 of 61.........................free agent
DL Mike Wright -- 15 of 61.........................2005 undrafted free agent
S James Sanders -- 12 of 61........................2005 draft pick
S Bret Lockett -- 5 of 61..............................waivers
CB Shawn Springs -- 2 of 61........................free agent

In summary, 13 of 20 guys who played last week were homegrown by the Pats, and they played 70% of the plays.

Supplementing them are the hallmark of a Bill Belichick team - low cost free agents. Brandon McGowan will make less than $1.3 million in base salary the next two seasons for the Pats - yet he is leading the team in tackles and his emergence has given the Patriots perhaps the deepest safety corps in the league. Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden - each under $3 million in total salary - have played well, but are starting to be phased out for the younger crew. Derrick Burgess (who was actually acquire in a trade), Junior Seau and Rob Ninkovich provide depth for the front seven. The only real black mark on the record has been Adalius Thomas, who has not played poorly (he has averaged almost six sacks in his first two years despite missing seven games to injury last season), but has also not lived up to lofty expectations. But this is why the Pats generally eschew big ticket free agents. It is hard for big ticket players to come in and meet expectations. This is why Bill Belichick builds from within, and focuses on the forgotten players in free agency.

And though this shouldn't be a surprise to Pats watchers, somehow it sneaks up on them. Instead of focusing on the positives, we New Englander's are inherently negative and skeptical. How will we replace Asante Samuel? Why did we trade Ellis Hobbs? Why did we draft such a little guy in Terrence Wheatley? Why the hell did we spend so much on Thomas? Why are we signing geriatrics to play linebacker? The results show that the Pats are doing just fine. In the five other games Baltimore has played this year, they are averaging 29.6 points. They only got 21 off the Pats. The Pats held Atlanta to a season low 10 points, but otherwise the Falcons are averaging 26.8 points a game. Even in a loss, the Pats kept the Broncos under their season average in points. Ditto with the Jets, who have scored 24 or more in four games, but only mustered 16 against the Pats. Have the last two weeks padded the Pats defensive stats? Absolutely. But the Titans put up 31 points in Week 2, and the Bucs put up 20 points on three different occasions, so it's not like they're Oakland, who has scored 20 points only once this season, and has only 26 points in their last five games.

Looking back at last year, we can see how much the defense has changed in such a short time. In 2008, the Pats were 10th in total yards allowed and eighth in points allowed, but that was mitigated by two factors - their incredibly easy schedule and the fact that they had so many aging veterans on the roster. The foundation trio of Mayo, Meriweather and Wilfork led the team in tackles, but down the list you saw Mike Vrabel (age 33, 5th in tackles), Tedy Bruschi (35, 7th), Richard Seymour (29, 8th), Deltha O'Neal (31, 10th), Rodney Harrison (36, 11th) and Thomas (31, 12th). This year, all but Thomas are gone, and Thomas has been moved from starring role to part-time player. This season, the only player over 30 in the top 10 in tackles is Springs, and as mentioned, he is already being pushed out in favor of the young guns. Before the Tampa game, Reiss tweeted that Springs was serving as the eighth defensive back.

So maybe you are having a hard time matching numbers to names in the first part of this Patriots season. But at the end of the season, the Pats will have Pro Bowlers at each level of the D with the trilogy of Wilfork up front, Mayo in the middle and Meriweather in the back. By January, guys like Butler and Guyton will be household names in New England, and Ty Warren will still be holding it down. The Pats have laid the foundation for their second dynasty with their home grown and built on the cheap defense. This time around, the Pats have spread the draft picks across 2008 and 2009, but the general theme is the same. It smells a lot like 2003 in Foxboro.

Pats Three Questions - Weeks 3/4

2009-10-05T20:23:00.003-06:00

Before we get going, apologies for skipping last week. I spent most of the week at the ballpark watching the Rox sweep the Brewers. My bad. I'll skip the highlights and lowlights of Week 3, but I'll do the Week 3 question of the week.

Highlights - Firstly, executing in the red zone and getting touchdowns. I like me some touchdowns! Second, Proving that the Ravens offense isn't the tilt-a-whirl that people had been starting to believe that they were. Yes, they put up 103 points in the first three weeks of the season, but it was against Kansas City, San Diego and Cleveland, three of the worst defenses in the NFL. Yesterday, the Pats held them to 14 points. And while Ray Rice did break off a 50-yard run, the Pats otherwise held them to 4.1 yards a carry. And Flacco and his 5.6 yards per pass average wasn't much better, especially when compared to Brady's robust 8.1 yards per pass. In addition, the Pats forced the Ravens to do things they didn't want to do. They consistently pressured Flacco, sacking him twice and registering 10 QB hits. Another highlight was the secondary play. The Bears have to be kicking themselves for letting Brandon McGowan get away for nothing, and Brandon Meriweather turned in another Pro Bowl effort. And Gary Guyton continues to be a monster. More on him later. Injury-wise, it was good to see that big Vince Wilfork didn't miss any time leaving early last week, and it was even better to get Wes Welker back in the fold. Finally, it was good to knock two firsts off the board - Randy Moss' first touchdown catch, and the team's first interception: registered by Leigh Bodden.

Lowlights - The pass coverage from the linebackers. Pierre Woods, in particular, was burned badly on the touchdown to McGahee. In general however, the Patriots seemed to recognize that this has been a weakness, and tried to de-emphasize it by playing more defensive backs. There seemed to be several plays with Meriweather, McGowan and James Sanders in the game at the same time. Another weakness was the rushing attack in early downs. Once again, the Pats were able to convert the crucial third/fourth and shorts, but they were unable to get any consistent rhythm rushing the ball. The silver lining was that they stuck with the run, and therefore didn't exhaust Brady or show their hand heading into every play the way they had the first two weeks. Finally, as great as the forced fumble on the kickoff was, special teams was overall below average this week. Laurence Maroney dances far too much to be an effective kick returner, and Chris Hanson was awful. Two of his punts went for touch backs, and the one that landed "inside the 20" actually landed on the 16 and was a net yardage of 36 yards.

Week 3 Question of the Week: Can the Patriots develop a good running game? It sure looked promising after the Falcons game, but perhaps the Falcons just have a really poor run defense. Outside of the Falcons game, the Patriots "high" rusher has compiled 32, 46 and 25 yards. Outsider of the Atlanta game, the Pats are averaging 3.3 yards per rush. That is not the hallmark of a good running game. The Pats will certainly maintain enough of a ground threat to be a viable change of pace, but if they are going to develop a ground game that is an actual strength, they will need to get Maroney going again. The key to that will likely be playing him in the second half of games, something that has not happened for two weeks. When the Pats came out of halftime this week, they had a 10 point lead at 17-7. They had a serious chance to put the game out of reach when they got the ball to start the half. But after starting by alternating pass-run-pass-run, the Pats called six straight passes. The drive stalled at the Baltimore 45, and the Pats were forced to punt. These are the situations where the run would have taken over in years past. This year, the Pats seem to have very little confidence in the running game. I'm not willing to bury the running game yet, as Baltimore does have a very good run defense, but the Pats simply have to get Maroney going, as the other backs can only be effective in spurts.

Week 4 Question of the Week: What will the defense look when Jerod Mayo comes back? In a word, fierce. Gary Guyton has established himself as a viable middle linebacker, capable of playing every down, as he has the past two weeks, when the Pats defense has held their opponents to 10 and 14 points on defense. But he is still keeping the seat warm for Mayo. The main benefit the Pats will derive from getting Mayo back is that they will be able to rotate into any defense they want. Do you want to play 4-3 with one of Mayo/Guyton and the edge rusher combo of Bunta-Cain/Thomas/Burgess? Sure, let's do it. Do you want to play a 3-4, with Guyton and Mayo making a fearsome middle of the defense. Yes, please! And with McGowan stepping up as an able hybrid safety/linebacker, the Pats could run schemes where they play six defensive backs in Meriweather, McGowan, Sanders, Bodden, Shawn Springs, Cornerback X, Guyton and Mayo, and a three man rush, thereby blanketing the field in coverage and waiting for pressure to break through and force a sack or a bad throw. Without Mayo, the Pats D has been solid. Bodden and Springs have been great pickups, Darius Butler is showing promise in limited action, Jonathan Wilhite is holding his own, and Mike Wright is developing into the team's best pass rusher. And that is one more element Mayo's return will bring to the D - the pass rush. We saw this week that when the Pats blitzed they left themselves vulnerable to passes over the middle. Woods wasn't up to snuff. But with Mayo back, the Pats will have the freedom to blitz Guyton or Mayo from the middle, knowing that the other will be there to cover any tight ends or backs effectively over the middle. It's going to be a beautiful thing.

Pats Three Questions - Week 2

2009-09-21T21:46:00.002-06:00

Highlights - Yes, there were some. For starters, Mike Wright's strip sack on the first play from scrimmage. Secondly, despite the problems that the Pats had with the Jets pass rush, the Pats had the ball for an equal amount of time and gained more yards than did the Jets. Another highlight, sort of like a back-handed compliment I suppose, was how Randy Moss pursued Darrelle Revis after the interception. He didn't let up, and tackled Revis before he was able to get any kind of return going. Finally, the Pats were able to effectively stop the run. Yes, the Jets gained 117 yards on the ground, but at only a 3.8 clip.

Lowlights - The number one reverse highlight has to be how the Pats responded to the Jets taking the lead. Given 9:43 at the end of the game, the Patriots of old would have easily tied the game. Instead the Pats gained 49 yards on three drives and failed to get even into Jets territory. Outside of that, Tom Brady played like the offensive line in front of him was the London Sillynannies. And unfortunately, that wasn't that far off. Also, the play-calling was once again horrendous. The Jets talked all week about bringing pressure, and then did exactly that, but somehow the Pats were unprepared. They consistently failed to disguise what they were doing on offense (or defense for that matter) and were unable to deal protect Brady, who became so skittish that he was throwing off his back foot even when he wasn't in danger of being hit.

Question of the Week - How do the Pats right the ship? Fortunately, the answers are within reach. 1) Improve the play-calling. 2) Converting in the red zone. 3) Get the secondary involved.

1) I realize that the goal of the shotgun offense is to give Brady more time to survey the field, but the downside is that everyone knows what you're going to do. The Patriots need to run a little more from under center, and they need to run a little more two tight end offense. The wide receiver depth on the team is down, especially with Welker's balky knee, so to spread the field with four receivers so frequently is not even playing to the team's strengths. Furthermore, with the defense searching for an identity, it would behoove the offense to try and play a little more ball control. Secondly, it is important not to overreact. As mentioned, the Pats had the ball longer than the Jets, and had more total yards than the Jets.

2) The main problem in the Pats first two games has not been gaining yards, but rather executing in the red zone. Stephen Gostkowski kicked two field goals from closer than 30 yards in in each game. That needs to change. It CAN change.

3) Get the secondary involved. The Pats have managed to sack the quarterback six times in the first two games, so there has been a pass rush. But it has all come from the front seven. The Pats need to be able to drop linebackers into coverage and blitz with members of the secondary. One of the hallmarks of the Rodney Harrison Pats was his ability to come with a perfectly timed blitz at just the right time. The Pats are lacking that element of surprise right now. Brandon Meriweather is performing well, and James Sanders has been trusted in the past. Leigh Bodden and Shawn Springs have made their bones as man-to-man defenders, and the fact that Darius Butler has been on the field in the fourth quarter during each of the first two games is an encouraging sign for his development. Jonathan Wilhite has shown flashes as well, though he and Brandon McGowan did get their wires crossed on the Jets touchdown yesterday. But the bottom line is that the Pats have become far too predictable on defense. In order to get feisty, to get a little unpredictable, they will need to trust the secondary a little more and get them more involved in the team defense.

Pats Three Questions - Week 1

2009-09-16T21:05:00.004-06:00

Welcome to a new feature at Faster than a Speeding Homer. Each week, I will put up a quick post on that week's Patriots game in three parts: 1) highlights, 2) lowlights and 3) a question chosen by a friend of mine, to be determined at random each week. Keep in mind that these are thoughts mainly off the top of my head that were/will be recorded the night of or morning after the game each week.

1) Highlights - My number one highlight was the last TD throw by Brady. It was down the middle, a 20+ yard throw, and had to be in a specific location to be caught, specifically Ben Watson's back shoulder. It was a great throw that Pats fans are used to seeing Tom Brady make, but had been missing for most of the game. My number two highlight was the fumble cause by Pierre Woods (and Brandon Meriweather) and recovered by Stephen Gostkowski. Kickoff returns happen very fast, and to have so many guys come together so quickly and make that play happen speaks well of the special teams this season. In addition, it's so rare that you see a kick returner hit squarely the way Meriweather hit him. Usually, players get tripped, or pushed in the side, etc.

Other highlights include: the pass rush in the second half, Darius Butler’s play in the fourth quarter, the game opening kick return by Laurence Maroney, and the running game (minus draw plays from shotgun) on first and second down.

2) Lowlights - The number one lowlight pass coverage of the running backs and tight ends. Both of Buffalo's offensive TD's were to this group. I understand that Belichick's game plan was to take away Lee Evans and Terrell Owens, and that that game plan mostly worked. But given the relative inexperience of some of the Pats' cornerbacks, this won't be the last wide receivers on whom the Pats need to roll coverage. So it is imperative that the linebackers get better in coverage. With Jerod Mayo out for awhile, this issue will be exacerbated.

My number two lowlight was the play-calling in the running game and in short yardage situations. Far, far, far too many shotgun draws were called. Two to three years ago, these fooled people. They also fool people when you are mixing and matching your running plays and your formations. But too frequently, the Pats just lined up in the shotgun, and the running plays were predictable. Furthermore, the play-calling in short yardage was far too passive. Specifically, the first fourth and inches when Maroney got stuffed behind the line. In years past, that was a Brady QB sneak every single time. And I think fans will rightly have fears about his knee until he can get back to running QB sneaks.

Other lowlights include Gostkowski's rare missed field goal, the decision to kick the field goal when down 17-10, and the two missed two-point conversions at the end of the game. Oh, and Matt Light's continued impersonation of a matador in the first half. Thankfully, Matt (not Todd Light, Mr. Gruden) remembered he was playing football in the second half.

3) Question of the Week - What calls do you feel the refs blew? The two roughing the passer calls were tremendously poor calls that swung the game significantly in Buffalo's favor. One turned a second-and-20 on the Bills 11-yard line to a first-and-10 on the 26. They got a 15-yard pass to Jackson on the next play and they were rolling. The second call turned what would have been a second-and-20 on the Bills 36 - which would have knocked them out of field goal range - into a first-and-10 on the cusp of the red zone. The Bills scored a touchdown five plays later, when they may have done no better than a field goal. And not only were the penalties extremely meaningful in the game, they were also the wrong call. So many people have already commented on this, so there isn't much need to go into detail, but the two calls mixed unnecessary rules with poor interpretation of said rules. It was very frustrating to watch.

There it is, down and dirty. Check back in for more each week!

NFL '09 - Just In Time

2009-09-13T08:35:00.005-06:00

Wow, did this come down to the wire. I have been making my own picks since middle school, and every year I wonder if I will fail to make them in time, or even make them at all, but the dream didn't die this year. Technically, I am already late, but that Thursday night game isn't really the start of the season. Here is how they will stack up. Read it like this:

NFL Rank. Team, record - comment

AFC East
2. New England, 13-3 - Tom Brady loves it when you doubt him. This will be Brandon Meriweather's first Pro Bowl season.
21. Miami, 6-10 - The future is still bright, but a much tougher schedule will fell the Fish in '09.
24. NY Jets, 5-11 - Mark Sanchez shows promise, but the Jets good defense will not play well enough to save the raw offense.
31. Buffalo, 3-13 - Two words - unmitigated disaster.

AFC North
4. Baltimore, 12-4 - Baltimore's three-headed RB and Joe Flacco keep improving, and the O finally starts to balance with the D.
6. Pittsburgh, 12-4 - They return so many starters, but they will lose a division tiebreaker that will cost them in the playoffs.
27. Cleveland, 5-11 - Eric Mangini made the right call running with Brady Quinn, but there is a lot of rebuilding to do here.
30. Cincinnati, 4-12 - The offense should be better this year, but it would be hard to be worse. Not buying a resurgence here.

AFC South
5. Indianapolis, 12-4 - New faces abound on offense, but as long as #18 is under center, he will make them fit.
9. Jacksonville, 11-5 - Torry Holt gives David Garrard a #1 target. They were Super Bowl faves before o-line injuries ruined '08.
12. Houston, 10-6 - They keep growing, but still fall victim to the numbers game in the tough, tough AFC.
14. Tennessee, 9-7 - Kerry Collins and Chris Johnson won't fool teams in '09. They won't be bad, but aren't good enough to be great.

AFC West
1. San Diego, 13-3 - Mix an O to rival New England's, an improved D and a division constantly in flux and you have football's best.
18. Kansas City, 8-8 - Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson wreak havoc on the D-line. Scott Pioli's reign breaks even in year one.
25. Denver, 5-11 - They will win three of their first four and two of their last three, but will lose nine straight in between.
29. Oakland, 4-12 - They will go 0-8 on the road, and at least one other assistant will have his jaw broken by "Coach" Tom Cable.

NFC East
3. NY Giants, 12-4 - The passing will be better than expected, but the run will be worse. Sweeping Philly will put them on top.
16. Washington, 8-8 - A 5-8 start will doom the season, but winning the last three will save Jim Zorn's job for another season.
17. Philadelphia, 8-8 - They will be soar to a 4-1 start, but then the meltdown pundits have predicted for years will finally occur.
20. Dallas, 7-9 - This year they open a new stadium. Next year they will have a new coach.

NFC North
7. Chicago, 11-5 - This division will be surprisingly good, and will knock a win or two off the Bears mark.
10. Green Bay, 10-6 - Three losses from weeks 13-15 - home vs. BAL, away at CHI and PIT - will ruin division hopes.
11. Minnesota, 10-6 - The patented Brett Favre Fade will be in effect - Vikes will lose last three at CAR, at CHI and home vs. NYG.
26. Detroit, 5-11 - Hope is a good thing, and Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson (and Brandon Pettigrew) brings that hope.

NFC South
8. New Orleans, 11-5 - New D coordinator Gregg Williams will be big. Pierre Thomas-Reggie Bush combo should be lethal.
15. Carolina, 9-7 - Like Tennessee, they are stuck in the middle. They're still good, but other teams passed them this offseason.
22. Atlanta, 6-10 - Too fast too soon for the Dirty Birds, and now they are counting on an aging Mike Peterson to help the D? Uh, no.
32. Tampa Bay, 2-14 - Now in a full-scale rebuild, it will be a rough year. They won't win a game outside their division.

NFC West
13. Seattle, 9-7 - Like Jacksonville, injuries ruined last season. Matt Hasselbeck to T.J. Houshmandzadeh will be fun to watch.
19. St. Louis, 7-9 - In a season without sleepers, this is as close as the league will get, but the Rams will fall short of the playoffs.
23. Arizona, 6-10 - They barely made the playoffs last year, and this year the division won't be crappy enough to propel them.
28. San Francisco, 4-12 - Except for San Fran, that is. The Niners have no clue what they're doing, and it shows.

A note on "sleepers" - every year a batch of new teams make the playoffs. Pundits are used to there being "sleeper" teams every year that make the playoffs to fill out these requirements. And I suppose Jacksonville and New Orleans loosely qualify, but both have been good in the very recent past. No, this year will be more about injuries evening out, as Jacksonville, New England and Seattle get back to their 2007 forms, and knock out a lot of potential sleepers in the process.

That's not to say there won't be that batch of new teams in the playoffs, as Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Miami, Philadelphia and Tennessee will be replaced by Chicago, Green Bay, Jacksonville, New England, New Orleans and Seattle.

AFC Playoffs
3 Baltimore beats 6 Jacksonville
4 Indianapolis beats 5 Pittsburgh

2 New England beats 3 Baltimore
4 Indianapolis beats 1 San Diego

2 New England beats 4 Indianapolis

New England avenges two of its three regular season losses (the other being Week 17 in Houston) and Tom Brady reaches his fifth Super Bowl in his first nine seasons as a starter, which is better than Joe Montana did.

NFC Playoffs
3 Chicago beats 6 Minnesota
5 Green Bay beats 4 Seattle

1 NY Giants beats 5 Green Bay
3 Chicago beats 2 New Orleans

1 NY Giants beats 3 Chicago

The year of the NFC North fizzles right at the end, as the Giants find a way to overcome and reach their second Super Bowl in three seasons.

Super Bowl XLIV
New England 24 - New York Giants 16. The story of this game will be the ability to score touchdowns. Each team will score four times, but the Patriots will score three TD's and one field goal, while the Giants will be the opposite - one TD and three FG's. Tom Brady cements himself as one of the three best quarterbacks of all-time. This will also be the sixth consecutive season in which the NFL's number one team (in this case, San Diego) doesn't win the Super Bowl.

NFL '09

2009-09-10T18:21:00.001-06:00

I have been completely slacking in making my NFL picks. I will get them up on Sunday. But for now, I think Pittsburgh will beat Tennessee tonight, and that I believe both teams will still be good this season.

MLB 2009, Part Two

2009-04-04T10:15:00.007-06:00

Last year, the AL ended up being the better league once again, as the progress the NL made from 2006 to 2007 turned out to be a one year blip. AL teams finished with an average record of 82.6-79.4, with the NL the inverse. Some of that will be rectified this year - the Braves and Mets should be better in the East, and the Rockies should be rebound a bit as well. But the Cubs and Astros also performed much better than expectations last year, and with the Pirates and Padres going through major rebuilds, the NL is once again unlikely to emerge as the dominant league.

Just like last year, W-L is each team's predicted total, Diff is the team's difference between their actual 2008 win total and their projected 2009 total and Rank is their projected MLB rank from 1-30.

AL E....W-L, Diff, Rank
TBA....96-66, -1, 1
BOS....95-67, 0, 2
NYA....94-68, +5, 3
TOR....81-81, -5, 15
BAL....77-85, +9, 23

The three best teams in baseball all reside in one division. It really may be a coin flip for who has the best team, and which team is going to get left out of the playoffs. Each team has extra depth at starter - Boston has John Smoltz and Clay Buchholz, Tampa has David Price and Jeff Niemann and New York has Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Each team has the requisite offensive firepower and bullpen needed to take home the division title and secure home field throughout the playoffs.

Tampa should get a bounce back season from Carl Crawford, and full seasons from B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria. Their two new offensive acquisitions, Pat Burrell and Matt Joyce, should add runs to the lineup, and if Burrell is not forced to play the field, the Rays will be all the better for it. The bullpen doesn't have one star, but it is very deep.

In Boston, the bullpen is so deep that one of their prime offseason acquisitions, Japanese import Junichi Tazawa, wasn't even expected to begin the season in the Majors. The Sox are acquiring pitchers they might use in the second half before the season even starts. The big question for the Red Sox is the health of their offensive players, as the team doesn't have as much depth to replace Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew and David Ortiz if they go down again. The key here will be Rocco Baldelli. If he and Drew can combine for 162 games, the Sox will be fine. But that's a medium-to-large sized if. And for some strange reason, Jason Varitek was able to weasel his way back onto the team. I'll be surprised if he is the starting catcher in September, but for now, he still is.

For all of the potential problems the Sox have with the bottom of their roster, I believe that the Rays and Sox overcome the Yankees because of the bottom of their rosters. The Yankees have once again forgotten to align their bench talent, and find themselves ill-equipped to deal with injuries. They also are still a bit behind the other two AL East juggernauts defensively. The Yankees certainly improved their defense with the addition of Mark Teixeira, and by naming Brett Gardner as their center fielder, but I have to wonder how long Gardner is going to last. If his batting average is under .225 after a month, is Manager Joe Girardi really going to stick with him, or is he going to be tempted to plug Johnny Damon back in? We'll see.

Elsewhere in the division, I see one major difference between Toronto and Baltimore - Roy Halladay. Both teams have awful rotations (aside from Halladay) and below-average bullpens. Toronto has a better defense, and Baltimore has a better offense (or they will, as soon as they call up Matt Wieters). If Toronto ends up trading Halladay, or the O's call up Wieters sooner than expected, I can easily see the two teams flip-flopping in the standings. Nick Markakis' only competition for best outfielder in the division is Upton, and Adam Jones stands a good chance at blossoming into a 20-20 player in his second season. In addition, the O's resolved Brian Roberts' contract situation, and those three players, along with Wieters, figure to form an imposing offensive core for the next few seasons. I'm also excited to see what Felix Pie will do with extended playing time, and I am likewise excited for the (hopeful) emergence of Travis Snider and Adam Lind in Toronto.

AL C....W-L, Diff, Rank
CLE....87-75, +6, 9
MIN....83-79, -5, 10
KCA....81-81, +6, 16
CHA....76-86, -13, 25
DET....65-97, -9, 28

There is a reason that the three best teams in the AL are all in the East - the other two divisions just aren't that good this year. Last year's division champs, the Chicago White Sox, lost Orlando Cabrera, Nick Swisher and Joe Crede, and replaced them with nothing. Josh Fields was a prospect two years ago, but now is just a guy. He might play as well as Crede, but I wouldn't bet on it. And Crede isn't that good in the first place. Alexei Ramirez wasn't good defensively at second, so moving him to short probably isn't going to work out well. Second base and center field are abject nightmares, and the rotation now features the artist formerly known as Bartolo Colon. John Danks was outstanding last year, but regression should be expected. Ozzie Guillen is a terrific manager, but there are just too many holes here.

Cleveland has its own holes, but they also have a lot of things going in their favor. First, Chin-Soo Choo should be able to build on the .946 OPS he put up in limited time last season. They added Kerry Wood as closer, which aligns their talent better, as Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez are better set-up men. They added Mark DeRosa, and Victor Martinez should be back to mashing. If they receive any uptick in performance from the mysterious Travis Hafner, they could win easily, but they will probably have to battle it out with Minnesota and Kansas City.

Like the White Sox squad they faced in game #163 last season, Minnesota did not make a ton of offseason moves. While they should get an entire season of Francisco Liriano this season, they are not going to get anywhere near a full season from catcher Joe Mauer, who begins the season on the disabled list. Mauer, who is the Twins' best player, may not even be able to catch, which will be a big problem for the Twins, as they don't have another good backstop option, but do have an abundance of no-field DH types. Scott Baker was set to be their Opening Day starter before being shelved by an injury, which I'm sure isn't the way he wanted to start his season. The Twins always manage to hang around and compete, but for the third straight year, it won't be in the cards in the twin cities.

The Royals were a sleeper for the division until the other day, when they decided to hand a rotation spot to Sidney Ponson. Oops! Ponson must have pictures of somebody, because he keeps finding jobs despite the fact that he hasn't had a season ERA under 5.00 since 2003. Last year in Texas, he managed an incredibly deceiving 3.88 ERA in Texas, as he allowed a whopping 87 base runners in 55.2 innings. Ponson sort of represents the contradiction that is the Royals - they stock the team with promising prospects like Alex Gordon and Mike Aviles, but also past their prime veterans like Ponson and Kyle Farnsworth. They add good defensive players like Coco Crisp, but also butchers like Mike Jacobs. Zack Greinke and Gil Meche form a solid base for the front of their rotation, and Juan Cruz and Joakim Soria the same for the bullpen, but the Royals have more work to do. Everyone seems to be high on Kyle Davies, but until August 28, his ERA for the season was 4.81, and 5.84 for his career. I need to see more than six starts at the end of the season when the team was out of contention to get excited about him.

As for Detroit, they're pretty much a train wreck. 20-year old Rick Porcello is penciled in as their fourth starter right now, and while Porcello will no doubt be a very good pitcher, it's unlikely that 2009 will be his real coming-out party. Detroit simply has zero pitching beyond Justin Verlander, and he got destroyed in the second half last season. They will score runs, but not enough, and if they have to trade Miguel Cabrera midseason, a long season will be even longer. Two years ago, everyone in baseball was praising Dave Dombrowski for his marvelous Motown rebuilding job, but by the end of this season, Detroit will be a lot closer to their 2003-2004 incarnation than the 2006-2007 one.

AL W....W-L, Diff, Rank
LAA....83-79, -17, 11
OAK....79-83, +4, 19
TEX....79-83, 0, 20
SEA....77-85, +16, 22

This division could be the worst in baseball this year. It says a lot when one team is projected to do 17 wins worse than the year before, and still win the division. The top three members of their rotation - John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders - all may miss significant time with injury, and fellow starter Kelvim Escobar will miss time as well. The braintrust made the correct decision to make Gary Matthews a very high-priced extra outfielder, but he is whining about it, which is obviously not good. Their offense and defense both have big problems. The bullpen is still a strength, but the main reason they will win the division is the fact that their competition is just not that stiff.

Oakland is the one team in the division with the most variable outcomes, and that's mainly due to their rotation. The team's top two prospects - Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill - both won rotation spots. It is rare to see that happen at the same time, and it could go very well or very poorly. Another big item that is difficult to predict is the destination of outfielder Matt Holliday. If they trade him midseason to continue bulking up their rebuild, they will probably come in under 79 wins. He is one of, if not the only, imposing presence in their lineup, and the team will not score a ton of runs without him. The third factor is the health of Justin Duchscherer. While he is unlikely to repeat his 2008 performance, he is still the ace of their staff, and the A's will need him to come back quickly following his surgery this past Tuesday. But the A's have some things going for them this year as well, starting with their new double play combo of Orlando Cabrera and Mark Ellis. In all, it just doesn't seem like the positives will outweigh the negatives this season.

Speaking of extreme positives and extreme negatives, let's talk about the Texas Rangers, where the offense is the extreme positive and the pitching is the extreme negative. The defense lies somewhere between the two extremes, but it's not going to be a great advantage. At this time next year, Neftali Feliz, Justin Smoak and perhaps Derek Holland will have been added to the Major League roster, and the Rangers will have a better chance of topping the AL West for the first time since 1999.

It might seem counter intuitive to pick a team that dealt its closer away to add 16 wins to their ledger, but the Mariners might have a truly exceptional outfield defense this season. Ichiro Suziki's surprise DL stint to start the season is a bit off-putting, but he might only miss eight to ten games. The offense won't be terribly imposing, but I saw two guys in skinny jeans at Starbucks yesterday that would be upgrades over the Mariners 2008 1B/DH combo of Richie Sexson and Jose Vidro. Russell Branyan and Ken Griffey, Jr. do not have big shoes to fill. Speaking of Griffey, statheads might not like it, but the team is likely to derive a small amount of karma from Griffey's farewell tour. This isn't as bad as Craig Biggio's last two years in Houston - Griffey can still be an effective player.

NL E....W-L, Diff, Rank
NYN....94-68, +5, 4
PHI....93-69, +1, 5
FLA....82-80, -2, 13
ATL....80-82, +8, 17
WAS....66-96, +7, 27

Last season, the Mets received a combined 14 starts from Nelson Figueroa, Claudio Vargas, Brian Stokes, Brandon Knight and Tony Armas, as they were ill-equipped to deal with injuries to Pedro Martinez and John Maine. This season, the team has added innings eater Livan Hernandez and Tim Redding to join prospect Jonathan Niese to fill out the back end of the rotation. Redding has had shoulder discomfort in Spring Training, so Hernandez will start in the fifth spot, and while Hernandez is on the down side of his career, the Mets did win 89 games last year despite Petey's 5.61 ERa. Hernandez's biggest strength - his rubber arm - should suit the Mets just fine. One of the reasons for that is the newly revamped bullpen. Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz made a habit of dominating AL hitters, and now will be able to feast on weaker competition in the NL. The Mets are far from perfect; they still could stand to upgrade their corner outfielders and catchers, and are a classic boom or bust team. But after two years of September busting it's a fair bet that the Mets will stay glued together in 2009, and the results will be enough to erase the headaches their fans feel when they look at the ticketing map of the new Citi Field.

That's not to say that Philadelphia is going to go down quietly. But there are a couple of factors working against Philly this season. First, perfection doesn't happen too often, so expecting Brad Lidge to repeat his perfect season in terms of converting save opportunities is folly. Second, the signing of Raul Ibanez made the team incredibly left-handed, which probably isn't a good thing. Third, Cole Hamels is already showing signs of wear and tear, and the season hasn't even started yet. Retread Chan Ho Park winning the fifth spot in the rotation underscores just how important Hamels is to this rotation. The Phillies 2008 NLCS and World Series MVP can't miss mch time, or the Fightin's could be in serious trouble.

The soon to be Miami Marlins will do what they usually do - pinch pennies that will deny a possible championship core its chance to win said championship. Hanley Ramirez may be the best player in baseball, and if he's not, he's in the top three. Cameron Maybin is the stud the Marlins have been waiting for in center, and Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson and Chris Volstad form an impressive trio at the front of the rotation. Anibal Sanchez and Andrew Miller have their merits, and were once hyped prospects. Second baseman Dan Uggla and closer Matt Lindstrom round out an impressive foundation, and though I could see this team winning 90 games, things just never seem to go smoothly for them. Case in point - they were still building the roster on April 1, trading for pitcher Hayden Penn and corner-man Ross Gload.

Atlanta should have been better than they were last year, but Jeff Francoeur imploded and was even demoted to Double-A for a stretch. Yet there he is again, atop the Braves' right-field depth chart. Manning the other corner is Garrett Anderson. That's not going to end well. And as good as the front four of the rotation may be, with Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Javier Vazquez and Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami, the Braves.com depth chart currently lists no fifth starter, since the man nominally expected to fill that role - Tom Glavine - is already on the DL. The bullpen is similarly held together by tape and glue, as Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano and Peter Moylan are imposing but fragile. The infield should be among the NL's best, and rookie Jordan Schafer offers promise in center, and the Braves could hop scotch over the Fish into third, but I'm not holding my breath.

As for Washington, they are simply too dysfunctional to hope to compete. Growth from the likes of Lastings Milledge, Ryan Zimmerman, Jesus Flores, Jordan Zimmerman and Elijah Dukes is all the hope the Nats will be able to muster this season. Of course, if they play Austin Kearns over Dukes, it will be hard for him to make any progress.

NL C....W-L, Diff, Rank
SLN....90-72, +4, 6
CHN....88-74, -9, 7
MIL....80-82, -10, 18
CIN....77-85, +3, 24
HOU....72-90, -14, 26
PIT....61-101, -6, 30

Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are back. Khalil Greene is on the scene. Rick Ankiel should play the whole season, and if Colby Rasmus forces his way onto the roster, the long, painful Chris Duncan experiment should draw to a close. Not having Troy Glaus around to open the season is a detriment, but the Cards should hang around long enough to win this year. That's because things are not going to go well in Wrigleyville.

Milton Bradley in the outfield? Kevin Gregg as the closer? Really? The Fukudome/Johnson platoon in center isn't going to inspire fear. Rich Harden is always a prime candidate to break down, and surprisingly, so is Carlos Zambrano, whose ERA the last two months was a whopping 7.28 despite throwing a no-hitter. Carlos Marmol is imposing, and a full season from Alfonso Soriano, while unlikely, would be a boon, but there are a lot of red flags for this team already.

The Cubs fate won't seem that bad though, because Milwaukee and Houston are also primed for major letdowns. The back end of the Astros rotation is a nightmare, one that not even Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence are qualified to overcome. And it's not exactly like the Astros are going to play world class defense either. In Milwaukee, they bring back essentially the same team as last year, minus C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets of course. They will score runs, but the bullpen will be awful. Trevor Hoffman was brought in to help the 'pen, but that was a bad idea that was compounded even further when it was learned that he would start the season on the DL.

The downfall of these two teams would seem to open the door for the Reds, but unfortunately, the Reds were the one team to open the door for Willy Tavares and his career .668 OPS. It was just two years ago that the Reds had seemingly too many outfielders, but now they just have Jay Bruce. Bruce should be a star in this league, but he only hit .254 last season, and it may take him some time to fulfill his All-Star potential. In the rotation, Bronson Arroyo's ERA has risen 94 and 54 points the last two years, respectively, yet he is still penciled in as their third starter.

The disappointing thing for Pirates fans is that they might welcome a 4.77 ERA into their rotation, as the only Bucs starter to best that mark in 2008 was Paul Maholm (3.71). The Pirates will be the worst team in baseball.

NL W....W-L, Diff, Rank
LAN....87-75, +3, 8
COL....83-79, +9, 12
ARI....82-80, 0, 14
SFN....79-83, +7, 21
SDN....63-99, 0, 29

The Manny Ramirez derby this winter may have distracted a lot of people from one big problem - the Dodgers rotation isn't all that spectacular. Chad Billingsley, while good in the regular season, was last seen getting tattooed to the tune of 10 runs in five innings in the NLCS against the Phillies. He then proceeded to break his leg "slipping and falling in his driveway" in the offseason. He should be good to go for Opening Day, but he still comes with question marks. Speaking of question marks, can Randy Wolf stay healthy, can Clayton Kershaw mature, and is James McDonald really the answer in the fifth spot? Hiroki Kuroda should be solid, but doesn't get a lot of strikeouts. The lineup however, should be imposing when everyone is healthy. The weak link in the chain is either Casey Blake or Orlando Hudson, and they are both capable of having quality at-bats. Look for the offense to carry the rotation through to an above average bullpen.

2008 was a dissapointing season for Colorado, and after they jettisoned/lost Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes, national expectations are low for the boys in purple. However, with Dexter Fowler and Ian Stewart winning battles in Spring Training, the Rockies might have their best team one through 25 ever heading into 2009, despite already losing starter Jeff Francis for the season. The rotation is anchored by Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez, and while Franklin Morales and Jorge De La Rosa still have to prove that they belong, the upside of both is still high. The bullpen should be solid, as the Rockies parted ways with 2008 dissapointments Luis Vizcaino and Matt Herges, replacing them with battle-tested vet Alan Embree and new closer Huston Street. It's a good mix that will only get better when Taylor Buchholz returns from injury in May. With a now healthy Troy Tulowitzki and Todd Helton to complement rising star Chris Iannetta and the always-solid bat of Brad Hawpe, the Rockies will still put runs on the scoreboard. It likely won't be enough to overcome the Dodgers, but it will be enough to renew optimism in the Rocky Mountains. And with maturation from Jimenez, Iannetta, Fowler and Stewart, and with Jhoulys Chacin on the horizon, 2010 could see the rebirth of Rocktober.

Arizona is an enigma. They have two great starters in Brandon Webb and Daniel Haren, and promise in Max Scherzer, but much of the rest of their roster is a bit overrated. They needed to add Adam Dunn to the offense to be capable of scoring runs down the stretch in 2008, and that still wasn't enough to overcome the Manny Ramirez show in Los Angeles. Now he's gone. The Arizona bullpen was less than spectacular, and over the winter their big move was to swap out Brandon Lyon with the oft-injured Tom Gordon. Stephen Drew had a terrific season last year, but it's an open question as to how much better he can be. Along the same lines, after three full seasons - none of which saw him pile up 50 extra base hits - it may be time to stop wondering when Conor Jackson will break out. Yes, this is his age 27 season, but he's been essentially the same guy for three straight years. His OPS in 2006 was .809, and then it was .836 and .823 the next two seasons. The same can be said for Chris Young and Chris Snyder, and of course Eric Byrnes has devolved back into the same craptastic outfielder he was at the start of his career. Justin Upton will need to carry this team for them to succeed offensively, and he still may be a year away from that type of performance.

San Francisco has an outstanding rotation, but then they had an outstanding rotation last year. Randy Johnson will help make it better, and Pablo Sandoval should be an upgrade over Jose Castillo at third base. Edgar Renteria might be an upgrade at shortstop, and Travis Ishikawa should be an upgrade defensively at first, but he is unlikely to remind anyone of Barry Bonds at the dish. The rest of the team is pretty much a carbon copy of 2008's 72-win team, and that likely won't get it done.

San Diego's biggest competition will be with Pittsburgh, Detroit and Washington for the 2010 number one pick. Unfortunately for the Fathers, who have holes long-term at most positions, they still have Jake Peavy, Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Kouzmanoff, and that's more than the Pirates can claim. The pitching Chris Young, Heath Bell, Chase Headley and Jody Gerut aren't terrible, but the Padres are awful up the middle. Their double play combo may be the worst in the Majors, and they don't have a Major League quality catcher. This is not what Brian Giles had in mind when he vetoed a trade to Boston last year.

AL Playoffs:
1 TBA over 3 LAA in three games.
4 BOS over 2 CLE in four games.
1 TBA over 4 BOS in seven games.

NL Playoffs:
1 NYN over 3 LAN in five games.
2 SLN over 4 PHI in five games.
1 NYN over 2 SLN in five games.

World Series: 1 TBA over 2 NYN in six games.
World Series MVP: B.J. Upton

So there you have it! I probably won't be any more accurate in 2009 than I was in 2008 or 2007, but that is both the joy and pain (paging Rob Base!) of trying to predict something that won't resolve itself for seven months...

MLB 2009, Part One

2009-03-25T21:08:00.002-06:00

Before we get to the 2009 picks, let's take a quick look back at 2008:

Nailed It (2 teams): Kansas City, Toronto

Just About Nailed It (6 teams): Boston (1 game off), NY Yankees (1), Texas (2), LA Dodgers (3), Milwaukee (3), NY Mets (3)

Pretty Good (10 teams): San Francisco (6), Oakland (7), Philadelphia (7), Baltimore (8), Chicago Cubs (8), LA Angels (9), Arizona (10), Atlanta (10), Cleveland (10), Pittsburgh (10)

Not That Good (6 teams): Cincinnati (11), Minnesota (11), Chicago White Sox (13), San Diego (13), Detroit (15), Tampa Bay (15)

Wayyyyy Off (6 teams): St. Louis (17), Colorado (19), Florida (19), Houston (21), Washington (21), Seattle (25)

So, yeah, last year was not a very good year. Let's compare the 2008 results with the 2007 results:

Group.....................2007.....2008
Nailed It........................3...........2
Just About Nailed It....14...........6
Pretty Good..................7..........10
Not That Good..............5...........6
Wayyyyy Off.................1...........6

In 2007, I predicted 17 teams within five games of their final record. In 2008, I only got eight. Ouch. So instead of rushing into my picks for 2009, I need to take a little more time to reflect on last season. I'll be back shortly.

$40 of fun!

2009-01-04T17:20:00.002-07:00

Sometimes, your family knows me better than I know myself. I told people 'don't buy me any Cd's for Christmas, because I always end up spending a bunch of money before Christmas on the mix Cd's I like to make and give people for the holidays. In the past couple of years, people have bought me specific Cd's, and in some cases I have already owned those Cd's, or had other Cd's a little higher on my list, and I end up taking back the Cd's (or in my sister's case last year, forcing her to go back down to Fat Beats in the Village to return them herself). But both my sister and sister-in-law saw past my bluster and bought me iTunes gift cards. Perfect! While my sister-in-law didn't have any specific recommendations for her $25 gift card, my sister noted on hers that it was '$15 for 15 songs - make it a great CD!' Well, OK! Here's the 15 songs I got (in alphabetical order):

1. Charles Hamilton - Brooklyn Girls - Honey, did I ever tell you I grew up in Brooklyn?
2. Jazmine Sullivan - Bust Your Windows - Loved the first song of hers I downloaded, 'Need U Bad.' And who doesn't like to hear a woman sing about committing violent crimes?
3. John Legend - Green Light f/ Andre 3000 - For some reason, John Legend always slips below my radar. But not today!
4. Kings of Leon - A friend at work told me about these guys awhile back, and I liked the interview I read about them in Blender this year. I also considered the more popular 'Sex on Fire,' but liked this one a bit more.
5. Lily Allen - The Fear - Lily's back! The long awaited single to her sophomore album, which drops this February. There is a lot of good stuff to look forward to in 2009 - Eminem, Big Boi, Outkast, Andre 3000, Raekwon, RZA, U2, Kelly Clarkson (well, my wife is excited about it...), Clipse and Missy Elliott, but Lily Allen's album is definitely on the top of my list. I'm already laughing at the name of the album: It's Not Me, It's You
6. Lykke Li - Little Bit - This girl was a critical darling of my three most trusted music sources - Blender, Pitchfork and Rolling Stone. We'll see...
7. Main Source - Live at the BBQ f/ Nas, Joe Fatal and Akinyele- The song that launched Nas' career way back in the day. For some reason, I never had it.
8. MGMT - Time To Pretend - Another 2008 critical darling. This one rocks, though it's hard to picture the guys in the picture rockin' like this. Oh well, don't judge a book by it's cover.
9. O'Neal McKnight - Check Your Coat - Saw this one in Rolling Stone, kind of a new-style Michael Jackson. And he's Diddy and Jermaine Dupri approved, because they did a remix of the song.
10. Pete Rock & CL Smooth - They Reminisce Over You (T.R.O.Y.) - Another classic that somehow wasn't in the collection.
11. Teyana Taylor - Google Me - Hilarious. Watch the video clip. Even hilarious'er.
12. The Knux - Cappuccino - These guys are going to get a long look later, but I'll start with this one.
13. TV on the Radio - Golden Age - More Brooklyn guys!
14. Usher - Love In This Club, Pt. 2 f/ Beyonce & Lil' Wayne - Some have said this version is better than the original. While I don't agree, it's certainly a top notch remix.
15. Young Jeezy - Put On f/ Kanye West - Jeezy always delivers with the big singles. I kind of think of him as a sort of latter-day Naughty by Nature. If I buy his whole album, I'm bound to be disappointed, but he always delivers with the "anthem" songs.

With the rest of my $$$, I completed the following three albums:
- The Alchemist - The Alchemist's Cookbook - It's an EP, but Al's always got good stuff.
- Black Milk - Tronic - Love this guy's beats.
- Santogold - Santogold - She was a breakout star of sorts this year. Needed to get the whole thing, especially since it was only $8 to start with, and $7 when I completed it (I had bought L.E.S. Artistes previously). Why was it $2 cheaper than a normal iTunes album? I don't know, and I don't care...

I also got The deluxe version of the iPod Touch version of Lux. It's like Risk, and I think it's safe to say that I'm hooked on it! This actually took me to like $43, so I cheated a little, but it's okay. Thanks again ladies, the money was put to good use!

AFC East Update

2008-12-07T21:19:00.003-07:00

In tiebreakers for division games, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head. The Pats split their head to head with the Jets and Dolphins, and the Jets have the tiebreaker over the Dolphins right now, but the Jets and Dolphins still have to play each other once more.

The next tiebreaker is division games. Right now, the Jets are 3-1 with two games left (BUF and MIA) and the Pats and Dolphins are 3-2 with one game left.

Next up are common games between opponents. Here is how that breaks down:

MIA vs. NYJ common opp - 8-2, w/ 2 gms left (SF, @kc)
MIA vs. NE common opp - 7-2, w/ all 3 gms left
NE vs. MIA common opp - 7-2, w/ all 3 gms left
NE vs. NYJ common opp - 7-2, w/ all 3 gms left
NYJ vs. NE common opp - 5-4, w/ all 3 gms left
NYJ vs. MIA common opp - 5-5, w/ 2 gms left (BUF, @sea)

In other words, if the jets lose either of their two remaining division games, they are going to be in trouble. If the patriots don't win out, they are going to be in trouble. But, if the patriots win out, they will do no worse than a tie for the division lead, and then it will be decided by the tiebreakers above. They will do no worse than that tie because the Jets and Dolphins are guaranteed one loss between the two of them in that final game of the regular season.

Now you know - and knowing is half the battle.

Couch Notes

2008-11-30T20:36:00.002-07:00

Notes while trying to pass the time on a boring Sunday night:

- What is the point of King of the Hill? I know it was canceled, but does Fox really need to show the final episodes? Who is still watching this show?

- The rate at which we consume media these days is frightening.

- I'm looking forward to my fourth annual end of the year "best of the year" CD's. I need to pick up some more CD's to round it out and represent recent releases, but this year's could be the best yet.

- The Patriots can still make the playoffs. But it's not looking good.

- The Celtics are ready to repeat. And while Paul Pierce is still the C's best player, I think it's an open question now as to who the second best player is. That's not a knock on Kevin Garnett, but rather a nod to how well Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo have played so far. Tony Allen has played remarkably well in the sixth man role, subbing for Rondo, Ray, or Pierce, depending on who needs a spell.

- I think the only people who don't know that college football needs a playoff are the six commissioners from the six "BCS" conferences.

- What would I do without Slash Film, Baseball-Reference and Cot's Contracts?

- I wasn't surprised to find out that the "deals" during Black Friday were pretty much the most classic definition of the bait-n-switch. Unreal.

- Facebook is addictive.

- Sometimes I predict really stupid things, like when I predicted that Washington would notch the seven seed in the playoffs this year, or that the Giants would only go 8-8 this year. But for every stinker, I get one nugget in there, like predicting the Hawks to emerge and grab the 5 seed this year...ok, it's not a one to one ratio, but I'm not wrong all the time!

- Do I really have to wait another two months for Lost to come back? Come on...

- 24: Redemption did little to redeem 24's crappy sixth season, although the 7th season does seem to have a lot of good story lines. We'll see I guess.

- Why is there still no great hip-hop blog? Someone help me out here if you have any suggestions.

- I've got nothing.

NFL 2008

2008-09-04T23:03:00.003-06:00

Let's just get right to it.

32. Kansas City Chiefs
2007 Prediction: 4-12
2007 Record: 4-12
2008 Prediction: 2-14

Kansas City is going to get worse before they get better, but at least they have a plan and a man that knows a little something about rebuilding in Herm Edwards.

31. Atlanta Falcons
2007 Prediction: 3-13
2007 Record: 4-12
2008 Prediction: 3-13

Matt Ryan sucks, as do most people that come out of BC. Unlike KC, Atlanta does not seem to have any real plan, unless the plan is "draft an overrated BC 'star' and watch him suck for six years."

30. Miami Dolphins
2007 Prediction: 3-13
2007 Record: 1-15
2008 Prediction: 4-12

Getting Chad Pennington will help the Dolphins get out to a 3-1 start and briefly restore respectability before watching it fall apart at the seams. Bill Parcells teams are always better in year two though, so this is just the prelude.

29. Chicago Bears
2007 Prediction: 11-5
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 5-11

I won't be making the mistake of overrating the Bears defense a second year in a row. No matter how good it is, the Bears have no quarterback, no running backs and no wide receivers of note. 29th may be high...

28. Cincinnati Bengals
2007 Prediction: 10-6
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 5-11

This team self destructed last year as well. Things aren't looking much better, and with the Ravens rebounding the Bengals will slip even further in the division standings.

27. San Francisco 49ers
2007 Prediction: 10-6
2007 Record: 5-11
2008 Prediction: 5-11

I bought into the hype last season, but now there is little reason for hope. Running backs don't do very well in Mike Martz's system, yet the Niners only offensive weapon is their running back, Frank Gore. Since Martz has proven to be one of the most stubborn coaches in football, this probably won't end well in San Fran.

26. Arizona Cardinals
2007 Prediction: 6-10
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 5-11

Had Anquan Boldin not demanded a trade, and had Matt Leinart stepped up and won the QB job, I might be more optimistic. But Boldin did demand a trade and Leinart choked off training camp. If the injury prone players on their defense can stay on the field, they have a chance to beat this projection, but I'm not holding my breath.

25. Denver Broncos
2007 Prediction: 9-7
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 6-10

"Teflon" Mike Shanahan failed to accept any responsibility once again, what a shock! This team has three good players - Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Champ Bailey. Cutler will need to make those strides everyone in Denver has been talking about, and Ryan Clady and Tony Scheffler will have to step up big time just to get to six wins.

24. Cleveland Browns
2007 Prediction: 5-11
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 6-10

Cleveland had one of the easiest schedules last year and took advantage. Everything went right and they still didn't make the playoffs. In the offseason, they traded away their best defensive back, and they weren't strong at the position in the first place. In a related story, their out of division opponents include quarterbacks like Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Jason Campbell, David Garrard, Matt Schaub, Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb. Oh, and Cincy and Pittsburgh have pretty good quarterbacks too. This won't end well for the Browns.

23. Tennessee Titans
2007 Prediction: 8-8
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 6-10

I don't like this prediction very much. I actually think Tennessee is better than my prediction, but I also am a big believer in Houston this season, and it's very difficult for all four teams in one division to be good. This is a very hard-luck six win season.

22. Washington Redskins
2007 Prediction: 8-8
2007 Record: 9-7
2008 Prediction: 6-10

Like the Bears, the Redskins have very little offensive firepower. I keep hearing that Jason Campbell is going to be good, but until he has good receivers it's going to be hard to tell. I mean, James Thrash, seriously? Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts are still good, but defenses can stack seven to eight in the box on every play and feel confident that the Redskins aerial attack won't beat them consistently.

21. Detroit Lions
2007 Prediction: 4-12
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 6-10

If Calvin Johnson emerges as expected, the Lions should at least be very entertaining, as he and Roy Williams will be targeted all year. When you sign a waived and washed up Rudi Johnson with a week to go in the season, it's probably not a good sign for your ground game. And with mediocre defenders surrounding play makers Ernie Sims and Leigh Bodden, the defense isn't anything to write home about either.

20. St. Louis Rams
2007 Prediction: 5-11
2007 Record: 3-13
2008 Prediction: 7-9

If the Rams can stay out of the trainers room and Chris Long can make an immediate impact, the Rams should be much improved from last year. They won't be good per se, but they will be better. And that's something.

19. Oakland Raiders
2007 Prediction: 6-10
2007 Record: 4-12
2008 Prediction: 7-9

I am expecting big things from the JaMarcus Russell-Darren McFadden back field. The Raiders D is already solid, so if these two can produce better results then they will improve enough to be in position for a playoff spot in 2009.

18. Buffalo Bills
2007 Prediction: 6-10
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 8-8

The Bills keep getting better a little bit at a time. Trent Edwards should make more strides this year, and Marshawn Lynch already has. The defense got big additions with Kawika Mitchell and Marcus Stroud, and that will help them become a respectable unit.

17. Carolina Panthers
2007 Prediction: 9-7
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 8-8

Jake Delhomme may be pain free, but Steve Smith will miss a few games and they will be working in a rookie running back into the mix. They will be mediocre, which will almost be good enough in the NFC South.

16. New York Giants
2007 Prediction: 5-11
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 8-8

Like so many, I completely whiffed on my Giants prediction last season. That doesn't mean I will be fooled into thinking that they are now all powerful or something along those lines. They will be good enough to compete for a playoff spot, but will ultimately fall short. It would be a different story if they had Osi...

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2007 Prediction: 7-9
2007 Record: 9-7
2008 Prediction: 9-7

This team has got alligator blood, which is fitting given their geography. But what they have in toughness and fundamentals, they lack in star power. They will just miss the playoffs.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers
2007 Prediction: 10-6
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 9-7

Many people think it will be business as usual in the Steel City, but the weakened offensive line is troublesome. Second, they did very little to upgrade the team's starters. And third, their schedule is killer. Out of division opponents include Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, San Diego, New England and Dallas. That's a tough slate for any team to overcome, and Pittsburgh won't be up to the challenge this year.

13. New York Jets
2007 Prediction: 8-8
2007 Record: 4-12
2008 Prediction: 9-7

The Jets will be better. But if history has taught us anything, it's that you can't throw money at a problem and expect everything to be just jolly good fun. The Jets will be better because of their free agent imports, but they won't be good enough to make the playoffs. And playing those free agents will set back the progress they may have made with younger players.

12. Houston Texans
2007 Prediction: 4-12
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 10-6, AFC Wild Card

The Texans finished 8-8 last season, even though Matt Scaub, Andre Johnson and Dunta Robinson weren't healthy for most of the season. Critics will say they can't succeed without a running game, but they didn't have much of one last year and still turned out a halfway decent season. And with Alex Gibbs and Gary Kubiak's offensive minds at work, even a slight improvement in the running game will go a long way towards getting those extra two wins that will vault them into the playoffs.

11. Dallas Cowboys
2007 Prediction: 7-9
2007 Record: 13-3
2008 Prediction: 10-6, NFC Wild Card

Last year, I missed the mark by six wins with two teams - Dallas and Baltimore. Ouch. The Cowboys aren't very deep and are counting on most of the same players they did last year, so it would seem like they should be just as good. But last year they had a cupcake schedule, with New England and Green Bay their only out of division games against teams that made the playoffs. They lost to New England and might have lost to Green Bay if Brett Favre hadn't gotten hurt in the game. Then they came out and laid an egg at home versus the Giants in the playoffs. All of that shouts "good on paper, can't win when it counts." And thus, they get only a Wild Card berth.

10. New Orleans Saints
2007 Prediction: 10-6
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 10-6, NFC South Champs

Someone has to win this division, might as well be New Orleans...

9. Baltimore Ravens
2007 Prediction: 11-5
2007 Record: 5-11
2008 Prediction: 10-6, AFC North Champs

This was the other team I really messed up last year. But I think 2007 was an aberration rather than the start of a trend. If Joe Flacco can stay on his feet behind a line tasked with replacing Jonathan Ogden, Baltimore should once again be a strong team.

8. Indianapolis Colts
2007 Prediction: 12-4
2007 Record: 13-3
2008 Prediction: 11-5, AFC Wild Card

This will be the year that the Colts start to slip just a little bit. There is no way to know how the new dome will play, and no way of knowing how well oft-injured receiver Marvin Harrison will play now that he's supposedly healthy again. Everyone will be proclaiming the downfall of the Colts after they start 1-3, but they will practically run the table from there on out to claim a playoff spot.

7. Minnesota Vikings
2007 Prediction: 7-9
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 11-5, NFC Wild Card

The Vikings defense is going to be scary. Tavaris Jackson is underrated, and Adrian Peterson is rated right where he should be, at the elite level. The Vikings will be quite good, quite.

6. Seattle Seahawks
2007 Prediction: 9-7
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 11-5, NFC West Champs

Like Tampa, they're always hanging around. Seattle might not be an elite team, but as long as they can keep running off five or six wins within their division, they are going to be playing in January.

5. San Diego Chargers
2007 Prediction: 11-5
2007 Record: 11-5
2008 Prediction: 11-5, AFC West Champs

This Shawne Merriman thing can't turn out well, can it? Even without him, they are blessed with the combination of 1) still having a lot of play makers and 2) a really bad division. They should still get to 11 wins before folding in the playoffs.

4. Philadelphia Eagles
2007 Prediction: 12-4
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 11-5, NFC East Champs

The Eagles are once again creepin' on a come up. The already decent secondary got a huge upgrade with Asante Samuel, and throwing the ball on Philly is going to be incredibly difficult this season. Since
the pass defense was the only unit that didn't rank in the top 10 in the NFL overall, Samuel may actually be the final piece of the puzzle in Philadelphia. That prowess will be on full display in Week 17, when a 10-5 Eagles team will defeat a 10-5 Cowboys team at home for the division crown.

3. Green Bay Packers
2007 Prediction: 11-5
2007 Record: 13-3
2008 Prediction: 11-5, NFC North Champs

I was one of the few people to see that Green Bay would be good in 2007, and they will still be good in 2008, Favre or no Favre. Though they will finish with the same record as Minnesota, Green Bay will win the division by virtue of winning both match ups with the Purple People Eaters. Green Bay may be the deepest team in football 1-53 - not that they don't have a lot of front-end play makers as well.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars
2007 Prediction: 9-7
2007 Record: 11-5
2008 Prediction: 13-3

Jacksonville is the one team that seems to pose the biggest threat to the Patriots this season. They played the Pats very tough in the playoffs last year, and David Garrard should be better in his second year as a starter. This Jags team will finally scale Mt. Indy, beating them both times in the regular season and once more in the playoffs for good measure. The second game will be especially dramatic, as a 10-4 Indianapolis team will visit a 12-2 Jacksonville team, needing to win to have any hope of winning the division. When the Jags win, they will be afforded the luxury of resting everyone in Week 17 at Baltimore, allowing Baltimore to punch their playoff ticket.

1. New England Patriots
2007 Prediction: 15-1
2007 Record: 16-0
2008 Prediction: 13-3

I don't think that this Patriots team is infallible by any means. Both the o-line and the secondary could use more depth, and Jerod Mayo is being asked to step in and be a starter right away. But the offense is the same dynamic machine it was last year, and Lawrence Maroney should be ready for a bigger role. I could see Jacksonville, Philadelphia or Green Bay stopping the Pats, but I learned a long time ago to not question Bill Belichick. His teams have advanced to at least the AFC Championship game in four of the last five years, and were a couple of bogus calls away from making it five for five. This is the team of the 2000's, and I expect that Belichick will find a way to lead this team back to the promised land. Plus, Brandon Meriweather is going to be a beast!

Playoffs:
2007: 5 of 12 teams picked correctly
2008:
AFC - 6 Houston beats 3 San Diego; 5 Indianapolis beats 4 Baltimore; 1 New England beats 6 Houston; 2 Jacksonville beats 5 Indianapolis; 1 New England beats 2 Jacksonville
NFC - 6 Dallas beats 3 Seattle; 5 Minnesota beats 4 New Orleans; 1 Green Bay beats 6 Dallas; 2 Philadelphia beats 5 Minnesota; 2 Philadelphia beats 1 Green Bay

Super Bowl XLIII - New England 35, Philadelphia 23
MVP - Lawrence Maroney

As I said before, it will be difficult to throw on Philadelphia this season. As such, Belichick will rely on the ground game, with Maroney leading the way. The Pats will pull ahead 35-13 early in the fourth before a late Philly rally comes up short.

Ok, it's late. Sorry if I rambled, but there are the picks, set in stone.