So it's been awhile since I posted to the blog. Or tweeted for that matter. There are a few reasons for this. First, and most important, after I made my MLB picks, my wife needed my attention. She was in her last 2 months of pregnancy, and not only did she require more attention, but we also started taking our baby preparation classes. And since our baby was born, I've been spending every second possible with him. In addition, I've added new responsibilities at work. Combine the two, and that doesn't leave much time for blogging. I even contemplated not making my NFL picks this year. I've been making them since as far back as I can remember. I used to do them by hand, picking every game for every team on sheet after sheet of paper from my father's yellow pads. These days, I keep them on an Excel spreadsheet. I managed to lose my last file when I bought my new laptop back in 2005, but I have 2006-2010 now saved in the same spreadsheet. It's a weird thing to take pride in, but I take pride in it nonetheless. I may not always be right, but I'm always invested. So even though I didn't read the SI preview issue this year, and only made it 2/3 through the Football Outsiders Almanac, here are my 2010 NFL picks. For the record, I did have New Orleans beating Minnesota Thursday night, but if you don't believe me, I'll understand. We'll go by division, with playoff results at the end.
AFC
AFC EAST
1. Miami Dolphins, 11-5, 3rd in AFC, 5th in NFL
Overview: The Dolphins are quietly lurking down south, and are ready to pounce this year. They will tie with New England, but win the division thanks to a 5-1 division record.
Biggest Win (regular season only): Week 14, @NYJ: The 8-4 Dolphins roll into the (New) Meadowlands and defeat the 9-3 Jets, starting the Jets on an end of season slump that will spiral them out of the playoffs, while giving the Dolphins the divisional record they need to trump the Pats.
2. New England Patriots, 11-5, 6th, 9th
Overview: I'm going to go against the grain here and say that the Pats defense will be a pleasant surprise, while the offense will be a bit of a let down. Wes Welker has been healthy in preseason, but to expect him to go all year without any knee problems would be naive. After him, the Pats have Moss, who will be double-teamed, and rookies. Tom Brady can only do so much.
Biggest Wins: Week 6, vs. BAL, Week 11, vs. IND: The Pats may not be Super Bowl contenders this year, but they will be get retribution for their 2 most embarrassing losses of 2009 (though Indy will once again have the last laugh in the playoffs).
3. New York Jets, 10-6, 7th, 11th
Overview: The Jets have been riding high all offseason, but they have been remarkably fortunate with injuries on their offensive line, it will take Revis awhile to work back into game shape, and their schedule is not as cupcake-laden as it was last year.
Biggest Win: Week 8, vs. GB: Coming out of their bye, Gang Green punishes Aaron Rodgers & Co., whose passing game will have a tough time on Revis Island. This game sets the Jets on a 6-game winning streak.
4. Buffalo Bills, 3-13, 15th, 30th
Overview: There isn't much good to say, ever, about the Bills.
Biggest Win: Week 17, at NYJ: The one silver lining in the Bills season will be playing spoiler. With this win, they will knock the Jets out of the playoffs.
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens, 12-4, 2nd, 4th
Overview: The additions at wide receiver will be enough to turn Flacco into a top 10 QB, and Baltimore will finally triumph in the hotly contested AFC North.
Biggest Win: Week 13, vs. PIT: This win gives them the season sweep of Pittsburgh, and vaults them to the division title, as neither Baltimore or Pittsburgh will lose a game from Week 14-17.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers, 11-5, 5th, 6th
Overview: Big Ben will come back to a 2-2 team, and Dennis Dixon will become the quarterback of the future in what will be Big Ben's last season in black and gold.
Biggest Win: Week 1, vs. ATL: The game that proves where Dixon proves he has what it takes to be a quarterback in the National Football League.
3. Cincinnati Bengals, 7-9, 10th, 19th
Overview: A much tougher schedule that includes NE, Atlanta, Miami, Indy, the Jets, New Orleans and San Diego for outside of the division foes (along with sleeper Tampa Bay) conspire to ruin Cincy's shot at a second straight playoff season.
Biggest Win: Week 13, vs. NO: Cincy shows that they're not a bad team, just one with the odds stacked against them.
4. Cleveland Browns, 5-11, 13th, 27th
Overview: Same old Browns - any progress they made in the last few weeks of '09 will ultimately be cancelled out by the unfortunate signing of Jake Delhomme.
Biggest Win: Week 4, vs. CIN: The Browns deal the Bengals an early season blow, knocking the Bengals down to 2-2, in a season where they need every win they can get.
AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts, 13-1, 1st, 1st
Overview: The Colts are once again the best team in football during the regular season, but this season, they will be the best in the playoffs as well. Donald Brown eventually takes over for a too-concussed Joseph Addai, and provides just enough ground game to keep defenses honest. They will face a stern test from the Ravens in the AFC Championship game, until Manning remembers the Ravens have no secondary, and then he will feast.
Biggest Win: Week 13, vs. DAL: Indy deals Dallas it's seventh loss, effectively knocking them to the bottom of the playoff picture in the NFC. After this game, Indy will be 10-2, and have a leg up on the rest of the AFC for home-field advantage.
2. Tennessee Titans, 9-7, 9th, 15th
Overview: The Titans will be good, but not good enough, and will have a tough time coming back in games when they face an early deficit.
Biggest Win: Week 14, vs. IND: Beating Indy is always huge, and the win vaults the Titans to 8-5, giving them a legit shot at the playoffs, which unfortunately they will not take advantage of, losing to KC and Indy in the final two weeks of the season.
3. Houston Texans, 7-9, 11th, 21st
Overview: Consider me officially off of the Texans bandwagon for 2010.
Biggest Win: Week 3, vs. DAL: Houston takes a 2-1 lead in the new Battle for Texas.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars, 2-14, 16th, 31st
Overview: The only team worse than the Jags will be Seattle, but while Seattle is rebuilding, the Jags fashion themselves as dark horse contenders. They won't be.
Biggest Win: Week 6, vs. TEN: Their only AFC South win of 2010.
AFC WEST
1. Kansas City Chiefs, 10-6, 4th, 10th
Overview: The Chiefs combine stellar number options on offense (RB Jamaal Charles & WR Dwayne Bowe) with an easy schedule and a crappy division to vault themselves back into the playoffs for the first time since 2006.
Biggest Win: Week 14, at SD: This huge win in San Diego gives the Chiefs the season sweep and the edge in the tiebreaker with the lightning bolts.
2. San Diego Chargers, 10-6, 8th, 12th
Overview: The Chargers have made the playoffs in four straight years, and five of the last six, yet they are not a dynasty, and have just lost arguably the best player in franchise history. The odds say it's time for them to miss the playoffs.
Biggest Win: Week 7, vs. NE: Teetering at 3-3, this win over the always-tough-for-them Patriots will keep hope alive.
3. Oakland Raiders, 6-10, 12th, 24th
Overview: This is the make or break year for Jason Campbell. Final result: break. The Raiders only do 1 win better than last season.
Biggest Win: Week 5, vs. SD: The win pushes Oakland to a respectable 2-3, while it pushes the needle to high alert for the Chargers, who will have now lost to division foes KC and Oakland in the first five weeks.
4. Denver Broncos, 4-12, 14th, 28th
Overview: This is already shaping up to be a lost season for the Broncos, who were going to have be running on all cylinders to combats their difficult schedule.
Biggest Win: Week 10, vs. KC: Coming off their bye, the Broncos net their third, and penultimate, win of the season in Tim Tebow's first start.
NFC
NFC EAST
1. Washington Redskins, 11-5, 3rd, 7th
Overview: For one year, everything will go right in Washington, who will only learn of Mike Shanahan's shortcut, band-aid ways in 2011. Or 2012, since there will be no 2011 season.
Biggest Wins: Week 4, @ PHI, Week 10, vs. PHI: Donovan McNabb wins.
2. New York Giants, 9-7, 6th, 14th
Overview: The G-Men rebound from a lackluster year and sneak back into the playoffs.
Biggest Win: Week 17, at WAS: The Giants get the win that vaults them into the playoffs over an already clinched Washington, who rests most of their starters, including McNabb.
3. Dallas Cowboys, 8-8, 7th, 16th
Overview: The Cowboys are overrated.
Biggest Win: Week 14, vs. PHI: After two straight losses to New Orleans and Indy, the Cowboys keep their fading playoff hopes alive.
4. Philadelphia Eagles, 8-8, 8th, 17th
Overview: The Eagles will be back in the NFL's next season, as their young core of Kolb, McCoy, Jackson, Macklin and Celek grow together, but they will not have the wherewithal or consistency to survive the tough NFC East this season.
Biggest Wins: Week 1, vs. GB, Week 6, vs. ATL: The Eagles give their fans hope by showing they have what it takes to beat the conference's elite.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers, 12-4, 1st, 2nd
Overview: The NFC's best regular season team will ride a strong offense all the way to a bye week, where they will unfortunately then run into the New Orleans Saints, who will have just enough magic to out-gun the Packers and end their season too soon.
Biggest Wins: Week 7, vs. MIN, Week 11, @ MIN: After these two games, Aaron Rodgers will be able to finally fling the Favre monkey from his back.
2. Chicago Bears, 7-9, 11th, 22nd
Overview: I just don't see it. Minor improvements in the offense will be cancelled out by more cracks in the defense, and when the chips are down, you don't want Jay Cutler under center.
Biggest Win: Week 10, vs. MIN: The Vikings come into this one with a 3-5 record and Green Bay the week after. In other words, it's a must-win for Minnesota, but they won't get it, as Brian Urlacher mercifully ends Brett Favre's career by snapping his ankle in half.
3. Detroit Lions, 6-10, 13th, 25th
Overview: The Lions start travelling the long road back to respectability.
Biggest Win: Week 6, @NYG: Matthew Stafford proves he belongs, and just in time, as it is just Detroit's second win of the season, and heading into the bye week, Stafford will need the win to save his job.
4. Minnesota Vikings, 5-11, 14th, 26th
Overview: That's right, last place. Favre will not play the whole season, and the rest of the Vikings will be too shell shocked to compete. Also, Adrian Peterson will flirt with the all-time fumble record.
Biggest Win: Week 6, vs. DAL: The win moves Minnesota to 2-3 on the season, giving fans hope that Favre can resurrect them once more. He won't.
NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta Falcons, 12-4, 2nd, 3rd
Overview: I've never hated a pick more. I hate BC, and therefore I hate Matt Ryan, but this is their Milhouse Van Houten year. IE, everything's coming up Falcons!
Biggest Win: Week 16, vs. NO: The 10-4 Falcons face off against the 10-4 Saints, with the Falcons winning the game, sweeping the season series and winning the division in the process. It will also give them the confidence they need to ultimately beat New Orleans in the NFC Championship game.
2. New Orleans Saints, 11-5, 5th, 8th
Overview: While the Saints won't win the division, they will be playoff bound in consecutive seasons for just the second time in franchise history (1990-1992 being the other time).
Biggest Win: Week 8, vs. PIT: The Saints prove their Super Bowl win wasn't a fluke by knocking off perennial contender Pittsburgh.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8-8, 9th, 18th
Overview: Josh Freeman and Raheem Morris shut up their critics with a respectable season. They will go 0-4 against the better AFC, but will hold their own within their own conference.
Biggest Win: Week 6, vs. NO: The Bucs announce their rebirth and expose some chinks in the Super Bowl champs armor at the same time.
4. Carolina Panthers, 3-13, 15th, 29th
Overview: This will be John Fox's last year with the Panthers, who will lose their first five games (with Matt Moore as QB) and their last five (with Jimmy Clausen as QB).
Biggest Win: Week 7, vs. SF: The Panthers get their first win of the year, while knocking San Fran back to earth.
NFC WEST
1. San Francisco, 9-7, 4th, 13th
Overview: The Niners are this year's sexy pick. I'm only buying them in the sense that the rest of this division is abominable.
Biggest Win: Week 17 vs. ARI: The Niners will come in at 8-7, the Cardinals 7-8. But with the Cardinals having won the first matchup, an Arizona win would give them the tiebreaker and the division title. The Niners will dig deep and come up with the win that gives them their first playoff berth since 2002.
2. Arizona Cardinals, 7-9, 10th, 20th
Overview: The Cardinals were already in for a down season without Kurt Warner, and that was before they realized that their best option at QB was Derek Anderson.
Biggest Win: Week 12, vs. SF: The win puts Arizona at 4-7 and will be the first win in a four game winning streak that will bring them back to .500 and within hailing distance of San Fran, with a Week 17 matchup in sight. Unfortunately, they will lose that matchup and find themselves out of the playoffs.
3. St. Louis Rams, 7-9, 12th, 23rd
Overview: Sam Bradford justifies his selection over Detroit's Suh, and the Rams make the run at respectability that some predicted would happen last year.
Biggest Win: Week 1, vs. ARI: Bradford shows right off the bat that 2010 is the dawn of a new era of Rams football.
4. Seattle Seahawks, 1-15, 16th, 32nd
Overview: I saved the worst for last. Wait, that's not how that goes. In any case, Pete Carroll is rebuilding, and will have the cache to let the 'Hawks take their lumps this year, just as long as it gets them Jake Locker next year.
Biggest Win: Week 13, vs. CAR: This one's by default, since it's their only win.
AFC PLAYOFFS
#6 New England defeats #3 Miami
#5 Pittsburgh defeats #4 Kansas City
#1 Indianapolis defeats #6 New England
#2 Baltimore defeats #5 Pittsburgh
#1 Indianapolis defeats #2 Baltimore
NFC PLAYOFFS
#3 Washington defeats #6 New York Giants
#5 New Orleans defeats #4 San Francisco
#5 New Orleans defeats #1 Green Bay
#2 Atlanta defeats #3 Washington
#2 Atlanta defeats #5 New Orleans
SUPER BOWL XLV
Indianapolis 27 - Atlanta 21
MVP Peyton Manning
Manning gets his second Super Bowl win a year later than everyone though he would, beating an Atlanta team that is just happy to be there (also, did you really think I'd pick a BC-led team to win the whole enchilada? Estan loco.).
Showing posts with label Football - General. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Football - General. Show all posts
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Sunday, February 07, 2010
Blogging Super Bowl XLIV: Fourth Quarter
6:59 - So, Peyton Manning hasn't played poorly or anything, but his last TD pass was 31 minutes of game time ago.
7:01 - There's just been a lot of un-Manning-like throws in this one, and that deep ball was example numero uno.
7:03 - After Wayne had just one catch for five yards in the first three quarters, Manning threw to hinm on three straight plays, including the fourth-and-two.
7:04 - And the Austin Collie for Super Bowl MVP campaign takes another hit with the two play combo of an "oof" of a screen pass, and then Vilma beating him in coverage 30 yards downfield. Not a good sequence for Collie.
7:05 - That missed field goal was the momentum shift the Saints needed. I have to think the Colts should have gone for it again.
7:07 - That was a good effort by Pop Secret and Emerald Nuts, and while I'm interested to see if they made some sort of crossover product, the ad just wasn't funny enough.
7:09 - I'm glad they explained that Stover replay. That was a bit confusing. In other news, Brees is officially having a better game than Manning. I didn't expect that at all.
7:14 - The Saints made that look way too easy.
7:15 - The Saints should challenge it. He was down (and in) with possession before it was knocked out.
7:17 - And they did. Good call by the Saints. Lance Moore needs to be rewarded for that inhuman effort, and it's a good TD the second the ball breaks the plane.
7:18 - YES! Although I'd love to know how the line judge blew that call. It was pretty obvious.
7:22 - This has been the perfect storm - the ads were better in the first half, and the game has been better in the second half. Also, it's been more than 40 minutes of game time since Manning threw a TD pass. When was the last time that happened, even across two games?
7:23 - Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh. So close.
7:25 - These defenses have to be pretty tired at this point. There's been a lot more YAC in the fourht quarter.
7:26 - Austin Collie misses another pass, and then in true Colts style, gets up and asks for the flag. Typical.
7:27 - What the hell is the Green Car Journal? Whatever it is, it's not nearly half as cool as Charles Barkley. But why waste Lamar Odom there? Taco Bell should have come up with some sort of candy item for him to pump!
7:28 - Phil Simms - "I would keep the extra guys in coverage." Saints blitz six, and they get the pick six. Sorry Peyton. WHO DAT!!!! Geaux Saints!!! That is how you jump a route.
7:33 - Just as an aside, the Doritos Warrior was awesome, the Bud Light Book Club was awesome, but the E-Trade baby is no longer cute. Time to move on E-Trade.
7:34 - Best text of the night from a friend - "Brady just got his first non-Gisele related woody since 2006."
7:35 - The contrasting styles really came into play tonight. Colts didn't go for it on fourth down and suffered with their missed goal, whereas the Saints have taken just about every chance possible. The Saints played to win, and the Colts played to not lose.
7:37 - I'm still flummoxed by this Joe Montana endorsement by Skechers. First, he doesn't appear in the ad, but his quote and his voice does, which is strange to start. Second, he has no reason to try and get in shape since he's never been fat. Third, I seriously doubt Joe Montana fans are Skechers' target market. That ad is the height of "how can we pretend to make our ad special for the Super Bowl?" Just a half-@$$ed attempt.
7:41 - Wow, that was pretty blatant offensive PI. But I'm still surprised it got called.
7:43 - Reggie Wayne developed a case of alligator arms at the worst possible time. Geaux Saints! I've rarely been so happy for a team that wasn't my own to win.
7:45 - Aside from the Saints, the big winners in this game are Tom Brady and Joe Montana (his strange Skechers ad aside), because now it's hard to put Manning in their group now.
7:47 - I agree with the Twitter-verse - Sean Payton is the real Super Bowl MVP. But also Brees. Brees will win.
7:48 - Well, it was fun to give this a whirl. If you actually read this, and I doubt any of you did, I hope you enjoyed yourself! I know I did.
7:01 - There's just been a lot of un-Manning-like throws in this one, and that deep ball was example numero uno.
7:03 - After Wayne had just one catch for five yards in the first three quarters, Manning threw to hinm on three straight plays, including the fourth-and-two.
7:04 - And the Austin Collie for Super Bowl MVP campaign takes another hit with the two play combo of an "oof" of a screen pass, and then Vilma beating him in coverage 30 yards downfield. Not a good sequence for Collie.
7:05 - That missed field goal was the momentum shift the Saints needed. I have to think the Colts should have gone for it again.
7:07 - That was a good effort by Pop Secret and Emerald Nuts, and while I'm interested to see if they made some sort of crossover product, the ad just wasn't funny enough.
7:09 - I'm glad they explained that Stover replay. That was a bit confusing. In other news, Brees is officially having a better game than Manning. I didn't expect that at all.
7:14 - The Saints made that look way too easy.
7:15 - The Saints should challenge it. He was down (and in) with possession before it was knocked out.
7:17 - And they did. Good call by the Saints. Lance Moore needs to be rewarded for that inhuman effort, and it's a good TD the second the ball breaks the plane.
7:18 - YES! Although I'd love to know how the line judge blew that call. It was pretty obvious.
7:22 - This has been the perfect storm - the ads were better in the first half, and the game has been better in the second half. Also, it's been more than 40 minutes of game time since Manning threw a TD pass. When was the last time that happened, even across two games?
7:23 - Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh. So close.
7:25 - These defenses have to be pretty tired at this point. There's been a lot more YAC in the fourht quarter.
7:26 - Austin Collie misses another pass, and then in true Colts style, gets up and asks for the flag. Typical.
7:27 - What the hell is the Green Car Journal? Whatever it is, it's not nearly half as cool as Charles Barkley. But why waste Lamar Odom there? Taco Bell should have come up with some sort of candy item for him to pump!
7:28 - Phil Simms - "I would keep the extra guys in coverage." Saints blitz six, and they get the pick six. Sorry Peyton. WHO DAT!!!! Geaux Saints!!! That is how you jump a route.
7:33 - Just as an aside, the Doritos Warrior was awesome, the Bud Light Book Club was awesome, but the E-Trade baby is no longer cute. Time to move on E-Trade.
7:34 - Best text of the night from a friend - "Brady just got his first non-Gisele related woody since 2006."
7:35 - The contrasting styles really came into play tonight. Colts didn't go for it on fourth down and suffered with their missed goal, whereas the Saints have taken just about every chance possible. The Saints played to win, and the Colts played to not lose.
7:37 - I'm still flummoxed by this Joe Montana endorsement by Skechers. First, he doesn't appear in the ad, but his quote and his voice does, which is strange to start. Second, he has no reason to try and get in shape since he's never been fat. Third, I seriously doubt Joe Montana fans are Skechers' target market. That ad is the height of "how can we pretend to make our ad special for the Super Bowl?" Just a half-@$$ed attempt.
7:41 - Wow, that was pretty blatant offensive PI. But I'm still surprised it got called.
7:43 - Reggie Wayne developed a case of alligator arms at the worst possible time. Geaux Saints! I've rarely been so happy for a team that wasn't my own to win.
7:45 - Aside from the Saints, the big winners in this game are Tom Brady and Joe Montana (his strange Skechers ad aside), because now it's hard to put Manning in their group now.
7:47 - I agree with the Twitter-verse - Sean Payton is the real Super Bowl MVP. But also Brees. Brees will win.
7:48 - Well, it was fun to give this a whirl. If you actually read this, and I doubt any of you did, I hope you enjoyed yourself! I know I did.
Blogging Super Bowl XLIV: Third Quarter
6:20 - So Bill Simmons is having a so-so prop bet game overall. Manning didn't throw a second quarter TD., but Garcon won him the jersey number prop bet. But Austin Collie has only one catch.
6:22 - Onside kick!!!!!!! And the Saints get it, after one of the most unorganized pile-ups ever. Wow. Just wow. We've got a game now. Hank Baskett blew it! Kendra's gonna be pissed!
6:24 - Just an aside - nice of CBS to come back from the break with "Run This Town," a completely relevant song, which as my wife said, would have been perfect for the halftime show. Shows that The Who wasn't CBS' idea.
6:25 - Freeney still getting taped on the sideline. That's another huge win for the Saints' onside kick decision. The Colts were unprepared.
6:26 - That's the perfect way to come out. Those are the Saints we love. Foot on the gas pedal. Balls to the wall. Great individual effort by Pierre Thomas.
6:28 - I love Megan Fox. There, I said it.
6:30 - Megan Fox, Tracy Morgan, Stevie Wonder, and screaming chickens...all ruined by Doogie Howser. Ugh.
6:32 - Still laughing at the ladder sequence in the Megan Fox ad. "You got me?" "Ya."
6:33 - Nice work by Addai. Could he be in line for Super Bowl MVP if the Colts win?
6:35 - That was an "I'm Peyton 'F***ing' Manning" throw.
6:38 - If Addai wasn't in line for Super Bowl MVP before, he certainly is now.
6:41 - Punk-@$$ Colts didn't have the brass to onside kick.
6:45 - Wow, just throw it away Drew.
6:48 - Nice analysis on the deep routes there by Simms. Call me crazy, but I don't think Aikman picks up on that.
6:49 - Nice kick by Hartley there, but I was really hoping for the fake field goal. I mean, Payton has pulled just about every other trick out of his hat, why not the fake field goal?
6:51 - Hartley looks pretty upset for a dude that just made three tough field goals.
6:53 - I can't decide if I love or hate that Kia commercial. But I think, overall, the ads were a lot funnier in the first half. However, the Google ad was awesome. As future parents, I liked the how to put together a crib at the end. My solution? Pay the people you buy it from, which we just did earlier today! $50 for delievery and assembly, or hours of frustration followed by years of angst because you're not sure you put it together and just know that today is the day it falls apart with your baby inside? Yeah, tough call. Bring on the fourth quarter.
6:22 - Onside kick!!!!!!! And the Saints get it, after one of the most unorganized pile-ups ever. Wow. Just wow. We've got a game now. Hank Baskett blew it! Kendra's gonna be pissed!
6:24 - Just an aside - nice of CBS to come back from the break with "Run This Town," a completely relevant song, which as my wife said, would have been perfect for the halftime show. Shows that The Who wasn't CBS' idea.
6:25 - Freeney still getting taped on the sideline. That's another huge win for the Saints' onside kick decision. The Colts were unprepared.
6:26 - That's the perfect way to come out. Those are the Saints we love. Foot on the gas pedal. Balls to the wall. Great individual effort by Pierre Thomas.
6:28 - I love Megan Fox. There, I said it.
6:30 - Megan Fox, Tracy Morgan, Stevie Wonder, and screaming chickens...all ruined by Doogie Howser. Ugh.
6:32 - Still laughing at the ladder sequence in the Megan Fox ad. "You got me?" "Ya."
6:33 - Nice work by Addai. Could he be in line for Super Bowl MVP if the Colts win?
6:35 - That was an "I'm Peyton 'F***ing' Manning" throw.
6:38 - If Addai wasn't in line for Super Bowl MVP before, he certainly is now.
6:41 - Punk-@$$ Colts didn't have the brass to onside kick.
6:45 - Wow, just throw it away Drew.
6:48 - Nice analysis on the deep routes there by Simms. Call me crazy, but I don't think Aikman picks up on that.
6:49 - Nice kick by Hartley there, but I was really hoping for the fake field goal. I mean, Payton has pulled just about every other trick out of his hat, why not the fake field goal?
6:51 - Hartley looks pretty upset for a dude that just made three tough field goals.
6:53 - I can't decide if I love or hate that Kia commercial. But I think, overall, the ads were a lot funnier in the first half. However, the Google ad was awesome. As future parents, I liked the how to put together a crib at the end. My solution? Pay the people you buy it from, which we just did earlier today! $50 for delievery and assembly, or hours of frustration followed by years of angst because you're not sure you put it together and just know that today is the day it falls apart with your baby inside? Yeah, tough call. Bring on the fourth quarter.
Blogging Super Bowl XLIV: Halftime
5:53 - In the interests of completeness, I'm going to endure what is sure to be a horrible halftime show. The Who, proving once again that you can go 24 years without releasing an album and still be considered culturally relevant by the NFL!
5:55 - Halftime snacks - Triscuts and home-made garlic dip courtesy of my wife.
5:56 - I still hate Bill Cowher. Is that so wrong? His hairline continually frustrates and vexes me. Get some plugs, get a piece or start shaving your head. Unreal.
5:58 - The halftime show that they are setting up in the background looks craptastic. Glowing lights? Wow, I'm impressed. But I never get tired of the CBS guys yelling their points in a hurried manner. I'd love to know how their analysis would be different if they were in the studio.
6:00 - "You can't find synergy Lemon, it's bigger than all of us." Nice work by CBS with the Big Brother-Amazing Race tie-in.
6:02 - God, if I was The Who I'd be thoroughly embarrassed right now. Do you think they passed out a lyrics sheet to everyone in the crowd before halftime?
6:08 - My wife's list of non-offensive people who would be better right now - Taylor Swift, Jonas Brothers, Jay-Z, Miley Cyrus..."there's just so many choices."
6:10 - Sorry, I don't even know this song. But the lights are purty!
6:11 - My wife wants to know who is on the committee to pick the halftime show performer and how far down the list was The Who. My response, I would hope very far. But obviously not far enough.
6:13 - Is there an applause sign?
6:14 - My dad summed up halftime the best in our traditional halftime phone call - "Well we didn't get to see Janet Jackson's nipple, but at least we got to see that guy's fat belly!"
5:55 - Halftime snacks - Triscuts and home-made garlic dip courtesy of my wife.
5:56 - I still hate Bill Cowher. Is that so wrong? His hairline continually frustrates and vexes me. Get some plugs, get a piece or start shaving your head. Unreal.
5:58 - The halftime show that they are setting up in the background looks craptastic. Glowing lights? Wow, I'm impressed. But I never get tired of the CBS guys yelling their points in a hurried manner. I'd love to know how their analysis would be different if they were in the studio.
6:00 - "You can't find synergy Lemon, it's bigger than all of us." Nice work by CBS with the Big Brother-Amazing Race tie-in.
6:02 - God, if I was The Who I'd be thoroughly embarrassed right now. Do you think they passed out a lyrics sheet to everyone in the crowd before halftime?
6:08 - My wife's list of non-offensive people who would be better right now - Taylor Swift, Jonas Brothers, Jay-Z, Miley Cyrus..."there's just so many choices."
6:10 - Sorry, I don't even know this song. But the lights are purty!
6:11 - My wife wants to know who is on the committee to pick the halftime show performer and how far down the list was The Who. My response, I would hope very far. But obviously not far enough.
6:13 - Is there an applause sign?
6:14 - My dad summed up halftime the best in our traditional halftime phone call - "Well we didn't get to see Janet Jackson's nipple, but at least we got to see that guy's fat belly!"
Blogging Super Bowl XLIV: Second Quarter
5:11 - Let's start the quarter with a wifey comment - "It bothers me that so many people like 'How I Met Your Mother' now. It's such predictable humor. Agreed.
5:11 - Welcome to the game Marques Colston! Better late than never.
5:12 - Classic Reggie Bush bailed out by the late hit. Hey, take 'em where you can get them. Saints need points on this drive or this one could be over quickly. Bush barely got hit, but the intent, way out of bounds, was there.
5:13 - Nice toughness by Pierre Thomas on those two plays. The Saints need more of that.
5:14 - The Saints running backs seem to not understand that you can't run around the Colts D. They're too fast.
5:17 - I guess we can stop wondering whether or not Dwight Freeney is 100%. Horrible end to an otherwise good-looking drive. But at least they got some points. Need a stop on D.
5:18 - My wife is thoroughly amused by the name "Bushrod."
5:18 - Is there a situation where the Stripes music isn't hilarious? The ads tonight have been terrific.
5:20 - "Why the f*** is Mark Sanchez talking to me?" God I love my wife.
5:22 - Two straight commercials without pants? I love it. But I bet some people will think they're the same ad? Also, memo to Hyundai, Sears already ran the Favre joke into the ground. It's not funny anymore.
5:24 - First big play from the Saints D comes courtesy of Jonathan Vilma. First time Addai has looked like Addai of last year or so.
5:25 - HUGE drop by Garcon. Also, there's never been a punt return TD in the Super Bowl? Would not have guessed that.
5:28 - I was totally going to ask my barber for Tracy Porter's haircut this weekend, but I changed my mind at the last minute. Glad I did, I wouldn't want to look like a copycat!
5:29 - Nice pickup on the throw in the flat to Thomas. Still got something out of the play even though the coverage was good.
5:29 - Colston is really coming alive in the second quarter. That's a very encouraging sign for the Saints.
5:31 - Nice catch by Shockey.
5:32 - Just when I'm questioning why the Saints ran shotgun on third-and-short again, Lance Moore got so wife open you'd have thought he was in Idaho. Wow.
5:32 - And then they threw it all away with that end-around. You. can't. run. around. the. Colts. D.
5:33 - Two passes, two bad miscommunications by the Colts secondary.
5:34 - I hate it when d-linemen jump out of their stance and point at o-linemen. Nobody likes a tattle-tale.
5:36 - Nicely done by Dodge Charger. That ad had my complete attention.
5:38 - Why don't more people hate Papa John? I bet they would if his pizza wasn't delicious. Oh hey, a football game!
5:39 - My wife just started singing "cleats on the ground, cleats on the ground." That was the first time (I think) that the Saints didn't go shotgun on third and short.
5:41 - Punksatawney Polamulu! That was hilarious.
5:41 - This game's over. That was a mirror image of the Willie McGinest tackle in Indy many moons ago, right down to Gary Brackett's run off the field.
5:44 - I'd love to know why New Orleans didn't call a time out after first down.
5:45 - I thought I was going to get through the Harry Potter commercial without any comment from my wife, and then right as it ended, she turned to me and said "I want to go," ever so softly. Damnit. Oh well, I knew it was coming. I'd put the odds at 20% that our son's first trip is to Univeral Orlando.
5:46 - I have so many questions about FLO TV. It sounds expensive.
5:47 - Wow, Reggie Bush just hurt me on two levels. On one level, his return sucked. On a second level, he just caused my wife to start singing, "he was dancin' dancin'" ala the Jackson 5's "Dancin' Machine."
5:49 - "Jeffrey...come back."
5:50 - A good and bad play at the same time from Brees. Good - he got the ball out of bounds. Bad - it gained less than a yard.
5:51 - Hartley is keeping New Orleans in the game. But my wife isn't impressed. Of Hartley, she says, "he looks like a gay punk rocker." Well, alright.
5:11 - Welcome to the game Marques Colston! Better late than never.
5:12 - Classic Reggie Bush bailed out by the late hit. Hey, take 'em where you can get them. Saints need points on this drive or this one could be over quickly. Bush barely got hit, but the intent, way out of bounds, was there.
5:13 - Nice toughness by Pierre Thomas on those two plays. The Saints need more of that.
5:14 - The Saints running backs seem to not understand that you can't run around the Colts D. They're too fast.
5:17 - I guess we can stop wondering whether or not Dwight Freeney is 100%. Horrible end to an otherwise good-looking drive. But at least they got some points. Need a stop on D.
5:18 - My wife is thoroughly amused by the name "Bushrod."
5:18 - Is there a situation where the Stripes music isn't hilarious? The ads tonight have been terrific.
5:20 - "Why the f*** is Mark Sanchez talking to me?" God I love my wife.
5:22 - Two straight commercials without pants? I love it. But I bet some people will think they're the same ad? Also, memo to Hyundai, Sears already ran the Favre joke into the ground. It's not funny anymore.
5:24 - First big play from the Saints D comes courtesy of Jonathan Vilma. First time Addai has looked like Addai of last year or so.
5:25 - HUGE drop by Garcon. Also, there's never been a punt return TD in the Super Bowl? Would not have guessed that.
5:28 - I was totally going to ask my barber for Tracy Porter's haircut this weekend, but I changed my mind at the last minute. Glad I did, I wouldn't want to look like a copycat!
5:29 - Nice pickup on the throw in the flat to Thomas. Still got something out of the play even though the coverage was good.
5:29 - Colston is really coming alive in the second quarter. That's a very encouraging sign for the Saints.
5:31 - Nice catch by Shockey.
5:32 - Just when I'm questioning why the Saints ran shotgun on third-and-short again, Lance Moore got so wife open you'd have thought he was in Idaho. Wow.
5:32 - And then they threw it all away with that end-around. You. can't. run. around. the. Colts. D.
5:33 - Two passes, two bad miscommunications by the Colts secondary.
5:34 - I hate it when d-linemen jump out of their stance and point at o-linemen. Nobody likes a tattle-tale.
5:36 - Nicely done by Dodge Charger. That ad had my complete attention.
5:38 - Why don't more people hate Papa John? I bet they would if his pizza wasn't delicious. Oh hey, a football game!
5:39 - My wife just started singing "cleats on the ground, cleats on the ground." That was the first time (I think) that the Saints didn't go shotgun on third and short.
5:41 - Punksatawney Polamulu! That was hilarious.
5:41 - This game's over. That was a mirror image of the Willie McGinest tackle in Indy many moons ago, right down to Gary Brackett's run off the field.
5:44 - I'd love to know why New Orleans didn't call a time out after first down.
5:45 - I thought I was going to get through the Harry Potter commercial without any comment from my wife, and then right as it ended, she turned to me and said "I want to go," ever so softly. Damnit. Oh well, I knew it was coming. I'd put the odds at 20% that our son's first trip is to Univeral Orlando.
5:46 - I have so many questions about FLO TV. It sounds expensive.
5:47 - Wow, Reggie Bush just hurt me on two levels. On one level, his return sucked. On a second level, he just caused my wife to start singing, "he was dancin' dancin'" ala the Jackson 5's "Dancin' Machine."
5:49 - "Jeffrey...come back."
5:50 - A good and bad play at the same time from Brees. Good - he got the ball out of bounds. Bad - it gained less than a yard.
5:51 - Hartley is keeping New Orleans in the game. But my wife isn't impressed. Of Hartley, she says, "he looks like a gay punk rocker." Well, alright.
Blogging Super Bowl XLIV: First Quarter
4:32 - Brees looks calm on first drop back despite a lot of pressure. Good omen?
4:33 - Nothing like a deep ball on 3rd and 2. Really overthrew him. What was the point of that? To beat Indy, you have to have some long drives. Not a good start. In other news, my wife is still trying to figure out why Simms and Nantz wore purple and orange, respectively. Her latest comment, "well, there's orange in the logo. But that doesn't explain Simms..."
4:34 - Such a typical demoralizing first play from the Indy offense. Cover Dallas Clark with a LB and you will pay.
4:35 - Wow, that's one hell of a neck beard.
4:37 - This is a clinic so far by Peyton Manning. Don't get greedy, just take what the defense gives you.
4:37 - Nice recovery by Harper on first down there. Also, isn't Tracy Porter the female NBA ref?
4:38 - Manning is hot. He's even hitting guys while back-pedaling? This could be a long night for the Saints D.
4:39 - First mistake of the night coincides with a third down. Lucky for Saints.
4:42 - "Oh, they're not empty." Nice.
4:43 - Snickers & Betty White - even better. You have to get creative to make "that's not what your girlfriend says," still be funny.
4:44 - Asked my wife what she thought of the Tebow ad - "What was it for?" Can't believe there was that much controversy over that ad.
4:45 - He was down. His elbow was down and there had been contact.
4:45 - What is the point of Hyundai? That ad sucked.
4:46 - BOOST MOBILE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THAT WAS AWESOME!!!!!
4:46 - That Doritos ad was strange. Maybe I'm too old to laugh at that? It's entirely possible.
4:48 - Head to the mountains. Lazy coverage by Hayden right there.
4:50 - Sorry, Marques, he'll hit you in the hands next time.
4:51 - I said to anyone who asked me all week that the Saints have to play a perfect game to win. So far, despite that downed punt, they are not doing that. Manning and Garcon messed up that third down throw. It wasn't anything the Saints did.
4:52 - Much better second effort from Doritos, and Dr. Marvin Candle/Dr. Edgar Halliwax for Bud Light? Good times. Liking the efforts so far from Madison Ave.
4:55 - Wow, I don't think the Colts running backs have combined for that much consecutive yardage in a long time.
4:57 - Two consecutive throws where Manning had to throw off his back foot, with two incompletions. But then Manning makes a great audible and they get another 10+ yard run out of Addai. When's the last time that happened?
4:58 - Who is this guy wearing #29 and what did he do with Joseph Addai?
5:00 - My wife is getting really upset with the choppiness of the camera.
5:01 - Comment just deleted by me - "Ok, Manning is no longer on fire." Just when you let up for a second, he burns you. Perfect balance by the Colts on that drive.
5:02 - Nice job, Coca-Cola. And once again, Go Daddy's ad makes incredibly little sense. Also, Go Daddy, they have this thing called porn now. I don't need to go to your website to see racy material online. Thanks though.
5:06 - Doritos casket? Genius. Bud Light auto-tune? Not so much. It would have been funny two years ago though.
4:33 - Nothing like a deep ball on 3rd and 2. Really overthrew him. What was the point of that? To beat Indy, you have to have some long drives. Not a good start. In other news, my wife is still trying to figure out why Simms and Nantz wore purple and orange, respectively. Her latest comment, "well, there's orange in the logo. But that doesn't explain Simms..."
4:34 - Such a typical demoralizing first play from the Indy offense. Cover Dallas Clark with a LB and you will pay.
4:35 - Wow, that's one hell of a neck beard.
4:37 - This is a clinic so far by Peyton Manning. Don't get greedy, just take what the defense gives you.
4:37 - Nice recovery by Harper on first down there. Also, isn't Tracy Porter the female NBA ref?
4:38 - Manning is hot. He's even hitting guys while back-pedaling? This could be a long night for the Saints D.
4:39 - First mistake of the night coincides with a third down. Lucky for Saints.
4:42 - "Oh, they're not empty." Nice.
4:43 - Snickers & Betty White - even better. You have to get creative to make "that's not what your girlfriend says," still be funny.
4:44 - Asked my wife what she thought of the Tebow ad - "What was it for?" Can't believe there was that much controversy over that ad.
4:45 - He was down. His elbow was down and there had been contact.
4:45 - What is the point of Hyundai? That ad sucked.
4:46 - BOOST MOBILE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THAT WAS AWESOME!!!!!
4:46 - That Doritos ad was strange. Maybe I'm too old to laugh at that? It's entirely possible.
4:48 - Head to the mountains. Lazy coverage by Hayden right there.
4:50 - Sorry, Marques, he'll hit you in the hands next time.
4:51 - I said to anyone who asked me all week that the Saints have to play a perfect game to win. So far, despite that downed punt, they are not doing that. Manning and Garcon messed up that third down throw. It wasn't anything the Saints did.
4:52 - Much better second effort from Doritos, and Dr. Marvin Candle/Dr. Edgar Halliwax for Bud Light? Good times. Liking the efforts so far from Madison Ave.
4:55 - Wow, I don't think the Colts running backs have combined for that much consecutive yardage in a long time.
4:57 - Two consecutive throws where Manning had to throw off his back foot, with two incompletions. But then Manning makes a great audible and they get another 10+ yard run out of Addai. When's the last time that happened?
4:58 - Who is this guy wearing #29 and what did he do with Joseph Addai?
5:00 - My wife is getting really upset with the choppiness of the camera.
5:01 - Comment just deleted by me - "Ok, Manning is no longer on fire." Just when you let up for a second, he burns you. Perfect balance by the Colts on that drive.
5:02 - Nice job, Coca-Cola. And once again, Go Daddy's ad makes incredibly little sense. Also, Go Daddy, they have this thing called porn now. I don't need to go to your website to see racy material online. Thanks though.
5:06 - Doritos casket? Genius. Bud Light auto-tune? Not so much. It would have been funny two years ago though.
Blogging Super Bowl XLIV: Pre-game
I'm going to give blogging a live event a shot for the first time. I figured since I'm not really emotionally invested in the outcome of this game - for the record I'm rooting for the Saints because one of my good friends is a Saints fan - this seemed like a good way to stay invested in the game, and also to try out my chops at the quick reaction world of live blogging. Although the sentiment will be muted since I don't have any sort of cool software to make that happen in real-time, so you'll just have to trust me. I will post updates quarterly, and my time stamps will be Mountain Standard Time, since that's the time zone in which I live.
4:17 - Pretty cool to do the Walter Payton Award right before the Super Bowl. The NFL does so many things better than the other pro sports, and that is certainly one.
4:18 - Queen Latifah singing America The Beautiful is another. I have chills. But what are the rules with players putting their hands over their heart for ATB? Some players are, some players aren't. I like the Reggie Bush approach, hands clasped behind his back. Save hand on heart for the Anthem. Also, Queen Latifah's coat is pretty shiny. Finally, was she rocking a behind-the-ear neck tattoo?
4:21 - Ugh, I can't stand Carrie Underwood. Love the 6-inch jumbo heels with the white zipper jacket zipped low enough that we can see your silver bra. You stay classy Carrie Underwood. Her voice also came dangerously close to cracking at the end, she was really forcing it. Definitely not the effortless range you should have to really knock the Anthem out of the park.
4:23 - Wait, was that the Last Airbender ad? It was only like 15 seconds...I purposely waited on watching it online so I could see it on the TV.
4:25 - I like the new take on the McDonald's ad. Go Larry!!!!
4:26 - I wonder how many of those Nurse Jackie promos I'm going to have to watch tonight? Let's put the over/under at 6. I'll take the over.
4:27 - Before we get going, my official prediction is Colts 27-Saints 20.
4:27 - Yet another great move by the NFL - having the new HOF inductees at the game. Congrats to Floyd Little - Mark Kiszla really did write a good piece on him a couple of weeks ago. That's the difference between Kiszla and Woody Paige - Kiszla is actually a good writer.
4:28 - Wow, I can't believe that call of heads worked.
4:29 - My wife's comment on Hyundai pre-game: If I was them, I would be pimping myself big-time right now because Toyota is f****d. Such language for a pregnant lady. Then she asked me what Tom Brady is doing today? Because I know...
4:17 - Pretty cool to do the Walter Payton Award right before the Super Bowl. The NFL does so many things better than the other pro sports, and that is certainly one.
4:18 - Queen Latifah singing America The Beautiful is another. I have chills. But what are the rules with players putting their hands over their heart for ATB? Some players are, some players aren't. I like the Reggie Bush approach, hands clasped behind his back. Save hand on heart for the Anthem. Also, Queen Latifah's coat is pretty shiny. Finally, was she rocking a behind-the-ear neck tattoo?
4:21 - Ugh, I can't stand Carrie Underwood. Love the 6-inch jumbo heels with the white zipper jacket zipped low enough that we can see your silver bra. You stay classy Carrie Underwood. Her voice also came dangerously close to cracking at the end, she was really forcing it. Definitely not the effortless range you should have to really knock the Anthem out of the park.
4:23 - Wait, was that the Last Airbender ad? It was only like 15 seconds...I purposely waited on watching it online so I could see it on the TV.
4:25 - I like the new take on the McDonald's ad. Go Larry!!!!
4:26 - I wonder how many of those Nurse Jackie promos I'm going to have to watch tonight? Let's put the over/under at 6. I'll take the over.
4:27 - Before we get going, my official prediction is Colts 27-Saints 20.
4:27 - Yet another great move by the NFL - having the new HOF inductees at the game. Congrats to Floyd Little - Mark Kiszla really did write a good piece on him a couple of weeks ago. That's the difference between Kiszla and Woody Paige - Kiszla is actually a good writer.
4:28 - Wow, I can't believe that call of heads worked.
4:29 - My wife's comment on Hyundai pre-game: If I was them, I would be pimping myself big-time right now because Toyota is f****d. Such language for a pregnant lady. Then she asked me what Tom Brady is doing today? Because I know...
Sunday, September 13, 2009
NFL '09 - Just In Time
Wow, did this come down to the wire. I have been making my own picks since middle school, and every year I wonder if I will fail to make them in time, or even make them at all, but the dream didn't die this year. Technically, I am already late, but that Thursday night game isn't really the start of the season. Here is how they will stack up. Read it like this:
NFL Rank. Team, record - comment
AFC East
2. New England, 13-3 - Tom Brady loves it when you doubt him. This will be Brandon Meriweather's first Pro Bowl season.
21. Miami, 6-10 - The future is still bright, but a much tougher schedule will fell the Fish in '09.
24. NY Jets, 5-11 - Mark Sanchez shows promise, but the Jets good defense will not play well enough to save the raw offense.
31. Buffalo, 3-13 - Two words - unmitigated disaster.
AFC North
4. Baltimore, 12-4 - Baltimore's three-headed RB and Joe Flacco keep improving, and the O finally starts to balance with the D.
6. Pittsburgh, 12-4 - They return so many starters, but they will lose a division tiebreaker that will cost them in the playoffs.
27. Cleveland, 5-11 - Eric Mangini made the right call running with Brady Quinn, but there is a lot of rebuilding to do here.
30. Cincinnati, 4-12 - The offense should be better this year, but it would be hard to be worse. Not buying a resurgence here.
AFC South
5. Indianapolis, 12-4 - New faces abound on offense, but as long as #18 is under center, he will make them fit.
9. Jacksonville, 11-5 - Torry Holt gives David Garrard a #1 target. They were Super Bowl faves before o-line injuries ruined '08.
12. Houston, 10-6 - They keep growing, but still fall victim to the numbers game in the tough, tough AFC.
14. Tennessee, 9-7 - Kerry Collins and Chris Johnson won't fool teams in '09. They won't be bad, but aren't good enough to be great.
AFC West
1. San Diego, 13-3 - Mix an O to rival New England's, an improved D and a division constantly in flux and you have football's best.
18. Kansas City, 8-8 - Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson wreak havoc on the D-line. Scott Pioli's reign breaks even in year one.
25. Denver, 5-11 - They will win three of their first four and two of their last three, but will lose nine straight in between.
29. Oakland, 4-12 - They will go 0-8 on the road, and at least one other assistant will have his jaw broken by "Coach" Tom Cable.
NFC East
3. NY Giants, 12-4 - The passing will be better than expected, but the run will be worse. Sweeping Philly will put them on top.
16. Washington, 8-8 - A 5-8 start will doom the season, but winning the last three will save Jim Zorn's job for another season.
17. Philadelphia, 8-8 - They will be soar to a 4-1 start, but then the meltdown pundits have predicted for years will finally occur.
20. Dallas, 7-9 - This year they open a new stadium. Next year they will have a new coach.
NFC North
7. Chicago, 11-5 - This division will be surprisingly good, and will knock a win or two off the Bears mark.
10. Green Bay, 10-6 - Three losses from weeks 13-15 - home vs. BAL, away at CHI and PIT - will ruin division hopes.
11. Minnesota, 10-6 - The patented Brett Favre Fade will be in effect - Vikes will lose last three at CAR, at CHI and home vs. NYG.
26. Detroit, 5-11 - Hope is a good thing, and Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson (and Brandon Pettigrew) brings that hope.
NFC South
8. New Orleans, 11-5 - New D coordinator Gregg Williams will be big. Pierre Thomas-Reggie Bush combo should be lethal.
15. Carolina, 9-7 - Like Tennessee, they are stuck in the middle. They're still good, but other teams passed them this offseason.
22. Atlanta, 6-10 - Too fast too soon for the Dirty Birds, and now they are counting on an aging Mike Peterson to help the D? Uh, no.
32. Tampa Bay, 2-14 - Now in a full-scale rebuild, it will be a rough year. They won't win a game outside their division.
NFC West
13. Seattle, 9-7 - Like Jacksonville, injuries ruined last season. Matt Hasselbeck to T.J. Houshmandzadeh will be fun to watch.
19. St. Louis, 7-9 - In a season without sleepers, this is as close as the league will get, but the Rams will fall short of the playoffs.
23. Arizona, 6-10 - They barely made the playoffs last year, and this year the division won't be crappy enough to propel them.
28. San Francisco, 4-12 - Except for San Fran, that is. The Niners have no clue what they're doing, and it shows.
A note on "sleepers" - every year a batch of new teams make the playoffs. Pundits are used to there being "sleeper" teams every year that make the playoffs to fill out these requirements. And I suppose Jacksonville and New Orleans loosely qualify, but both have been good in the very recent past. No, this year will be more about injuries evening out, as Jacksonville, New England and Seattle get back to their 2007 forms, and knock out a lot of potential sleepers in the process.
That's not to say there won't be that batch of new teams in the playoffs, as Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Miami, Philadelphia and Tennessee will be replaced by Chicago, Green Bay, Jacksonville, New England, New Orleans and Seattle.
AFC Playoffs
3 Baltimore beats 6 Jacksonville
4 Indianapolis beats 5 Pittsburgh
2 New England beats 3 Baltimore
4 Indianapolis beats 1 San Diego
2 New England beats 4 Indianapolis
New England avenges two of its three regular season losses (the other being Week 17 in Houston) and Tom Brady reaches his fifth Super Bowl in his first nine seasons as a starter, which is better than Joe Montana did.
NFC Playoffs
3 Chicago beats 6 Minnesota
5 Green Bay beats 4 Seattle
1 NY Giants beats 5 Green Bay
3 Chicago beats 2 New Orleans
1 NY Giants beats 3 Chicago
The year of the NFC North fizzles right at the end, as the Giants find a way to overcome and reach their second Super Bowl in three seasons.
Super Bowl XLIV
New England 24 - New York Giants 16. The story of this game will be the ability to score touchdowns. Each team will score four times, but the Patriots will score three TD's and one field goal, while the Giants will be the opposite - one TD and three FG's. Tom Brady cements himself as one of the three best quarterbacks of all-time. This will also be the sixth consecutive season in which the NFL's number one team (in this case, San Diego) doesn't win the Super Bowl.
NFL Rank. Team, record - comment
AFC East
2. New England, 13-3 - Tom Brady loves it when you doubt him. This will be Brandon Meriweather's first Pro Bowl season.
21. Miami, 6-10 - The future is still bright, but a much tougher schedule will fell the Fish in '09.
24. NY Jets, 5-11 - Mark Sanchez shows promise, but the Jets good defense will not play well enough to save the raw offense.
31. Buffalo, 3-13 - Two words - unmitigated disaster.
AFC North
4. Baltimore, 12-4 - Baltimore's three-headed RB and Joe Flacco keep improving, and the O finally starts to balance with the D.
6. Pittsburgh, 12-4 - They return so many starters, but they will lose a division tiebreaker that will cost them in the playoffs.
27. Cleveland, 5-11 - Eric Mangini made the right call running with Brady Quinn, but there is a lot of rebuilding to do here.
30. Cincinnati, 4-12 - The offense should be better this year, but it would be hard to be worse. Not buying a resurgence here.
AFC South
5. Indianapolis, 12-4 - New faces abound on offense, but as long as #18 is under center, he will make them fit.
9. Jacksonville, 11-5 - Torry Holt gives David Garrard a #1 target. They were Super Bowl faves before o-line injuries ruined '08.
12. Houston, 10-6 - They keep growing, but still fall victim to the numbers game in the tough, tough AFC.
14. Tennessee, 9-7 - Kerry Collins and Chris Johnson won't fool teams in '09. They won't be bad, but aren't good enough to be great.
AFC West
1. San Diego, 13-3 - Mix an O to rival New England's, an improved D and a division constantly in flux and you have football's best.
18. Kansas City, 8-8 - Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson wreak havoc on the D-line. Scott Pioli's reign breaks even in year one.
25. Denver, 5-11 - They will win three of their first four and two of their last three, but will lose nine straight in between.
29. Oakland, 4-12 - They will go 0-8 on the road, and at least one other assistant will have his jaw broken by "Coach" Tom Cable.
NFC East
3. NY Giants, 12-4 - The passing will be better than expected, but the run will be worse. Sweeping Philly will put them on top.
16. Washington, 8-8 - A 5-8 start will doom the season, but winning the last three will save Jim Zorn's job for another season.
17. Philadelphia, 8-8 - They will be soar to a 4-1 start, but then the meltdown pundits have predicted for years will finally occur.
20. Dallas, 7-9 - This year they open a new stadium. Next year they will have a new coach.
NFC North
7. Chicago, 11-5 - This division will be surprisingly good, and will knock a win or two off the Bears mark.
10. Green Bay, 10-6 - Three losses from weeks 13-15 - home vs. BAL, away at CHI and PIT - will ruin division hopes.
11. Minnesota, 10-6 - The patented Brett Favre Fade will be in effect - Vikes will lose last three at CAR, at CHI and home vs. NYG.
26. Detroit, 5-11 - Hope is a good thing, and Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson (and Brandon Pettigrew) brings that hope.
NFC South
8. New Orleans, 11-5 - New D coordinator Gregg Williams will be big. Pierre Thomas-Reggie Bush combo should be lethal.
15. Carolina, 9-7 - Like Tennessee, they are stuck in the middle. They're still good, but other teams passed them this offseason.
22. Atlanta, 6-10 - Too fast too soon for the Dirty Birds, and now they are counting on an aging Mike Peterson to help the D? Uh, no.
32. Tampa Bay, 2-14 - Now in a full-scale rebuild, it will be a rough year. They won't win a game outside their division.
NFC West
13. Seattle, 9-7 - Like Jacksonville, injuries ruined last season. Matt Hasselbeck to T.J. Houshmandzadeh will be fun to watch.
19. St. Louis, 7-9 - In a season without sleepers, this is as close as the league will get, but the Rams will fall short of the playoffs.
23. Arizona, 6-10 - They barely made the playoffs last year, and this year the division won't be crappy enough to propel them.
28. San Francisco, 4-12 - Except for San Fran, that is. The Niners have no clue what they're doing, and it shows.
A note on "sleepers" - every year a batch of new teams make the playoffs. Pundits are used to there being "sleeper" teams every year that make the playoffs to fill out these requirements. And I suppose Jacksonville and New Orleans loosely qualify, but both have been good in the very recent past. No, this year will be more about injuries evening out, as Jacksonville, New England and Seattle get back to their 2007 forms, and knock out a lot of potential sleepers in the process.
That's not to say there won't be that batch of new teams in the playoffs, as Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Miami, Philadelphia and Tennessee will be replaced by Chicago, Green Bay, Jacksonville, New England, New Orleans and Seattle.
AFC Playoffs
3 Baltimore beats 6 Jacksonville
4 Indianapolis beats 5 Pittsburgh
2 New England beats 3 Baltimore
4 Indianapolis beats 1 San Diego
2 New England beats 4 Indianapolis
New England avenges two of its three regular season losses (the other being Week 17 in Houston) and Tom Brady reaches his fifth Super Bowl in his first nine seasons as a starter, which is better than Joe Montana did.
NFC Playoffs
3 Chicago beats 6 Minnesota
5 Green Bay beats 4 Seattle
1 NY Giants beats 5 Green Bay
3 Chicago beats 2 New Orleans
1 NY Giants beats 3 Chicago
The year of the NFC North fizzles right at the end, as the Giants find a way to overcome and reach their second Super Bowl in three seasons.
Super Bowl XLIV
New England 24 - New York Giants 16. The story of this game will be the ability to score touchdowns. Each team will score four times, but the Patriots will score three TD's and one field goal, while the Giants will be the opposite - one TD and three FG's. Tom Brady cements himself as one of the three best quarterbacks of all-time. This will also be the sixth consecutive season in which the NFL's number one team (in this case, San Diego) doesn't win the Super Bowl.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
NFL '09
I have been completely slacking in making my NFL picks. I will get them up on Sunday. But for now, I think Pittsburgh will beat Tennessee tonight, and that I believe both teams will still be good this season.
Sunday, December 07, 2008
AFC East Update
In tiebreakers for division games, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head. The Pats split their head to head with the Jets and Dolphins, and the Jets have the tiebreaker over the Dolphins right now, but the Jets and Dolphins still have to play each other once more.
The next tiebreaker is division games. Right now, the Jets are 3-1 with two games left (BUF and MIA) and the Pats and Dolphins are 3-2 with one game left.
Next up are common games between opponents. Here is how that breaks down:
MIA vs. NYJ common opp - 8-2, w/ 2 gms left (SF, @kc)
MIA vs. NE common opp - 7-2, w/ all 3 gms left
NE vs. MIA common opp - 7-2, w/ all 3 gms left
NE vs. NYJ common opp - 7-2, w/ all 3 gms left
NYJ vs. NE common opp - 5-4, w/ all 3 gms left
NYJ vs. MIA common opp - 5-5, w/ 2 gms left (BUF, @sea)
In other words, if the jets lose either of their two remaining division games, they are going to be in trouble. If the patriots don't win out, they are going to be in trouble. But, if the patriots win out, they will do no worse than a tie for the division lead, and then it will be decided by the tiebreakers above. They will do no worse than that tie because the Jets and Dolphins are guaranteed one loss between the two of them in that final game of the regular season.
Now you know - and knowing is half the battle.
The next tiebreaker is division games. Right now, the Jets are 3-1 with two games left (BUF and MIA) and the Pats and Dolphins are 3-2 with one game left.
Next up are common games between opponents. Here is how that breaks down:
MIA vs. NYJ common opp - 8-2, w/ 2 gms left (SF, @kc)
MIA vs. NE common opp - 7-2, w/ all 3 gms left
NE vs. MIA common opp - 7-2, w/ all 3 gms left
NE vs. NYJ common opp - 7-2, w/ all 3 gms left
NYJ vs. NE common opp - 5-4, w/ all 3 gms left
NYJ vs. MIA common opp - 5-5, w/ 2 gms left (BUF, @sea)
In other words, if the jets lose either of their two remaining division games, they are going to be in trouble. If the patriots don't win out, they are going to be in trouble. But, if the patriots win out, they will do no worse than a tie for the division lead, and then it will be decided by the tiebreakers above. They will do no worse than that tie because the Jets and Dolphins are guaranteed one loss between the two of them in that final game of the regular season.
Now you know - and knowing is half the battle.
Thursday, September 04, 2008
NFL 2008
Let's just get right to it.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
2007 Prediction: 4-12
2007 Record: 4-12
2008 Prediction: 2-14
Kansas City is going to get worse before they get better, but at least they have a plan and a man that knows a little something about rebuilding in Herm Edwards.
31. Atlanta Falcons
2007 Prediction: 3-13
2007 Record: 4-12
2008 Prediction: 3-13
Matt Ryan sucks, as do most people that come out of BC. Unlike KC, Atlanta does not seem to have any real plan, unless the plan is "draft an overrated BC 'star' and watch him suck for six years."
30. Miami Dolphins
2007 Prediction: 3-13
2007 Record: 1-15
2008 Prediction: 4-12
Getting Chad Pennington will help the Dolphins get out to a 3-1 start and briefly restore respectability before watching it fall apart at the seams. Bill Parcells teams are always better in year two though, so this is just the prelude.
29. Chicago Bears
2007 Prediction: 11-5
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 5-11
I won't be making the mistake of overrating the Bears defense a second year in a row. No matter how good it is, the Bears have no quarterback, no running backs and no wide receivers of note. 29th may be high...
28. Cincinnati Bengals
2007 Prediction: 10-6
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 5-11
This team self destructed last year as well. Things aren't looking much better, and with the Ravens rebounding the Bengals will slip even further in the division standings.
27. San Francisco 49ers
2007 Prediction: 10-6
2007 Record: 5-11
2008 Prediction: 5-11
I bought into the hype last season, but now there is little reason for hope. Running backs don't do very well in Mike Martz's system, yet the Niners only offensive weapon is their running back, Frank Gore. Since Martz has proven to be one of the most stubborn coaches in football, this probably won't end well in San Fran.
26. Arizona Cardinals
2007 Prediction: 6-10
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 5-11
Had Anquan Boldin not demanded a trade, and had Matt Leinart stepped up and won the QB job, I might be more optimistic. But Boldin did demand a trade and Leinart choked off training camp. If the injury prone players on their defense can stay on the field, they have a chance to beat this projection, but I'm not holding my breath.
25. Denver Broncos
2007 Prediction: 9-7
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 6-10
"Teflon" Mike Shanahan failed to accept any responsibility once again, what a shock! This team has three good players - Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Champ Bailey. Cutler will need to make those strides everyone in Denver has been talking about, and Ryan Clady and Tony Scheffler will have to step up big time just to get to six wins.
24. Cleveland Browns
2007 Prediction: 5-11
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 6-10
Cleveland had one of the easiest schedules last year and took advantage. Everything went right and they still didn't make the playoffs. In the offseason, they traded away their best defensive back, and they weren't strong at the position in the first place. In a related story, their out of division opponents include quarterbacks like Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Jason Campbell, David Garrard, Matt Schaub, Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb. Oh, and Cincy and Pittsburgh have pretty good quarterbacks too. This won't end well for the Browns.
23. Tennessee Titans
2007 Prediction: 8-8
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 6-10
I don't like this prediction very much. I actually think Tennessee is better than my prediction, but I also am a big believer in Houston this season, and it's very difficult for all four teams in one division to be good. This is a very hard-luck six win season.
22. Washington Redskins
2007 Prediction: 8-8
2007 Record: 9-7
2008 Prediction: 6-10
Like the Bears, the Redskins have very little offensive firepower. I keep hearing that Jason Campbell is going to be good, but until he has good receivers it's going to be hard to tell. I mean, James Thrash, seriously? Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts are still good, but defenses can stack seven to eight in the box on every play and feel confident that the Redskins aerial attack won't beat them consistently.
21. Detroit Lions
2007 Prediction: 4-12
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 6-10
If Calvin Johnson emerges as expected, the Lions should at least be very entertaining, as he and Roy Williams will be targeted all year. When you sign a waived and washed up Rudi Johnson with a week to go in the season, it's probably not a good sign for your ground game. And with mediocre defenders surrounding play makers Ernie Sims and Leigh Bodden, the defense isn't anything to write home about either.
20. St. Louis Rams
2007 Prediction: 5-11
2007 Record: 3-13
2008 Prediction: 7-9
If the Rams can stay out of the trainers room and Chris Long can make an immediate impact, the Rams should be much improved from last year. They won't be good per se, but they will be better. And that's something.
19. Oakland Raiders
2007 Prediction: 6-10
2007 Record: 4-12
2008 Prediction: 7-9
I am expecting big things from the JaMarcus Russell-Darren McFadden back field. The Raiders D is already solid, so if these two can produce better results then they will improve enough to be in position for a playoff spot in 2009.
18. Buffalo Bills
2007 Prediction: 6-10
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 8-8
The Bills keep getting better a little bit at a time. Trent Edwards should make more strides this year, and Marshawn Lynch already has. The defense got big additions with Kawika Mitchell and Marcus Stroud, and that will help them become a respectable unit.
17. Carolina Panthers
2007 Prediction: 9-7
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 8-8
Jake Delhomme may be pain free, but Steve Smith will miss a few games and they will be working in a rookie running back into the mix. They will be mediocre, which will almost be good enough in the NFC South.
16. New York Giants
2007 Prediction: 5-11
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 8-8
Like so many, I completely whiffed on my Giants prediction last season. That doesn't mean I will be fooled into thinking that they are now all powerful or something along those lines. They will be good enough to compete for a playoff spot, but will ultimately fall short. It would be a different story if they had Osi...
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2007 Prediction: 7-9
2007 Record: 9-7
2008 Prediction: 9-7
This team has got alligator blood, which is fitting given their geography. But what they have in toughness and fundamentals, they lack in star power. They will just miss the playoffs.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers
2007 Prediction: 10-6
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 9-7
Many people think it will be business as usual in the Steel City, but the weakened offensive line is troublesome. Second, they did very little to upgrade the team's starters. And third, their schedule is killer. Out of division opponents include Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, San Diego, New England and Dallas. That's a tough slate for any team to overcome, and Pittsburgh won't be up to the challenge this year.
13. New York Jets
2007 Prediction: 8-8
2007 Record: 4-12
2008 Prediction: 9-7
The Jets will be better. But if history has taught us anything, it's that you can't throw money at a problem and expect everything to be just jolly good fun. The Jets will be better because of their free agent imports, but they won't be good enough to make the playoffs. And playing those free agents will set back the progress they may have made with younger players.
12. Houston Texans
2007 Prediction: 4-12
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 10-6, AFC Wild Card
The Texans finished 8-8 last season, even though Matt Scaub, Andre Johnson and Dunta Robinson weren't healthy for most of the season. Critics will say they can't succeed without a running game, but they didn't have much of one last year and still turned out a halfway decent season. And with Alex Gibbs and Gary Kubiak's offensive minds at work, even a slight improvement in the running game will go a long way towards getting those extra two wins that will vault them into the playoffs.
11. Dallas Cowboys
2007 Prediction: 7-9
2007 Record: 13-3
2008 Prediction: 10-6, NFC Wild Card
Last year, I missed the mark by six wins with two teams - Dallas and Baltimore. Ouch. The Cowboys aren't very deep and are counting on most of the same players they did last year, so it would seem like they should be just as good. But last year they had a cupcake schedule, with New England and Green Bay their only out of division games against teams that made the playoffs. They lost to New England and might have lost to Green Bay if Brett Favre hadn't gotten hurt in the game. Then they came out and laid an egg at home versus the Giants in the playoffs. All of that shouts "good on paper, can't win when it counts." And thus, they get only a Wild Card berth.
10. New Orleans Saints
2007 Prediction: 10-6
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 10-6, NFC South Champs
Someone has to win this division, might as well be New Orleans...
9. Baltimore Ravens
2007 Prediction: 11-5
2007 Record: 5-11
2008 Prediction: 10-6, AFC North Champs
This was the other team I really messed up last year. But I think 2007 was an aberration rather than the start of a trend. If Joe Flacco can stay on his feet behind a line tasked with replacing Jonathan Ogden, Baltimore should once again be a strong team.
8. Indianapolis Colts
2007 Prediction: 12-4
2007 Record: 13-3
2008 Prediction: 11-5, AFC Wild Card
This will be the year that the Colts start to slip just a little bit. There is no way to know how the new dome will play, and no way of knowing how well oft-injured receiver Marvin Harrison will play now that he's supposedly healthy again. Everyone will be proclaiming the downfall of the Colts after they start 1-3, but they will practically run the table from there on out to claim a playoff spot.
7. Minnesota Vikings
2007 Prediction: 7-9
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 11-5, NFC Wild Card
The Vikings defense is going to be scary. Tavaris Jackson is underrated, and Adrian Peterson is rated right where he should be, at the elite level. The Vikings will be quite good, quite.
6. Seattle Seahawks
2007 Prediction: 9-7
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 11-5, NFC West Champs
Like Tampa, they're always hanging around. Seattle might not be an elite team, but as long as they can keep running off five or six wins within their division, they are going to be playing in January.
5. San Diego Chargers
2007 Prediction: 11-5
2007 Record: 11-5
2008 Prediction: 11-5, AFC West Champs
This Shawne Merriman thing can't turn out well, can it? Even without him, they are blessed with the combination of 1) still having a lot of play makers and 2) a really bad division. They should still get to 11 wins before folding in the playoffs.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
2007 Prediction: 12-4
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 11-5, NFC East Champs
The Eagles are once again creepin' on a come up. The already decent secondary got a huge upgrade with Asante Samuel, and throwing the ball on Philly is going to be incredibly difficult this season. Since
the pass defense was the only unit that didn't rank in the top 10 in the NFL overall, Samuel may actually be the final piece of the puzzle in Philadelphia. That prowess will be on full display in Week 17, when a 10-5 Eagles team will defeat a 10-5 Cowboys team at home for the division crown.
3. Green Bay Packers
2007 Prediction: 11-5
2007 Record: 13-3
2008 Prediction: 11-5, NFC North Champs
I was one of the few people to see that Green Bay would be good in 2007, and they will still be good in 2008, Favre or no Favre. Though they will finish with the same record as Minnesota, Green Bay will win the division by virtue of winning both match ups with the Purple People Eaters. Green Bay may be the deepest team in football 1-53 - not that they don't have a lot of front-end play makers as well.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
2007 Prediction: 9-7
2007 Record: 11-5
2008 Prediction: 13-3
Jacksonville is the one team that seems to pose the biggest threat to the Patriots this season. They played the Pats very tough in the playoffs last year, and David Garrard should be better in his second year as a starter. This Jags team will finally scale Mt. Indy, beating them both times in the regular season and once more in the playoffs for good measure. The second game will be especially dramatic, as a 10-4 Indianapolis team will visit a 12-2 Jacksonville team, needing to win to have any hope of winning the division. When the Jags win, they will be afforded the luxury of resting everyone in Week 17 at Baltimore, allowing Baltimore to punch their playoff ticket.
1. New England Patriots
2007 Prediction: 15-1
2007 Record: 16-0
2008 Prediction: 13-3
I don't think that this Patriots team is infallible by any means. Both the o-line and the secondary could use more depth, and Jerod Mayo is being asked to step in and be a starter right away. But the offense is the same dynamic machine it was last year, and Lawrence Maroney should be ready for a bigger role. I could see Jacksonville, Philadelphia or Green Bay stopping the Pats, but I learned a long time ago to not question Bill Belichick. His teams have advanced to at least the AFC Championship game in four of the last five years, and were a couple of bogus calls away from making it five for five. This is the team of the 2000's, and I expect that Belichick will find a way to lead this team back to the promised land. Plus, Brandon Meriweather is going to be a beast!
Playoffs:
2007: 5 of 12 teams picked correctly
2008:
AFC - 6 Houston beats 3 San Diego; 5 Indianapolis beats 4 Baltimore; 1 New England beats 6 Houston; 2 Jacksonville beats 5 Indianapolis; 1 New England beats 2 Jacksonville
NFC - 6 Dallas beats 3 Seattle; 5 Minnesota beats 4 New Orleans; 1 Green Bay beats 6 Dallas; 2 Philadelphia beats 5 Minnesota; 2 Philadelphia beats 1 Green Bay
Super Bowl XLIII - New England 35, Philadelphia 23
MVP - Lawrence Maroney
As I said before, it will be difficult to throw on Philadelphia this season. As such, Belichick will rely on the ground game, with Maroney leading the way. The Pats will pull ahead 35-13 early in the fourth before a late Philly rally comes up short.
Ok, it's late. Sorry if I rambled, but there are the picks, set in stone.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
2007 Prediction: 4-12
2007 Record: 4-12
2008 Prediction: 2-14
Kansas City is going to get worse before they get better, but at least they have a plan and a man that knows a little something about rebuilding in Herm Edwards.
31. Atlanta Falcons
2007 Prediction: 3-13
2007 Record: 4-12
2008 Prediction: 3-13
Matt Ryan sucks, as do most people that come out of BC. Unlike KC, Atlanta does not seem to have any real plan, unless the plan is "draft an overrated BC 'star' and watch him suck for six years."
30. Miami Dolphins
2007 Prediction: 3-13
2007 Record: 1-15
2008 Prediction: 4-12
Getting Chad Pennington will help the Dolphins get out to a 3-1 start and briefly restore respectability before watching it fall apart at the seams. Bill Parcells teams are always better in year two though, so this is just the prelude.
29. Chicago Bears
2007 Prediction: 11-5
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 5-11
I won't be making the mistake of overrating the Bears defense a second year in a row. No matter how good it is, the Bears have no quarterback, no running backs and no wide receivers of note. 29th may be high...
28. Cincinnati Bengals
2007 Prediction: 10-6
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 5-11
This team self destructed last year as well. Things aren't looking much better, and with the Ravens rebounding the Bengals will slip even further in the division standings.
27. San Francisco 49ers
2007 Prediction: 10-6
2007 Record: 5-11
2008 Prediction: 5-11
I bought into the hype last season, but now there is little reason for hope. Running backs don't do very well in Mike Martz's system, yet the Niners only offensive weapon is their running back, Frank Gore. Since Martz has proven to be one of the most stubborn coaches in football, this probably won't end well in San Fran.
26. Arizona Cardinals
2007 Prediction: 6-10
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 5-11
Had Anquan Boldin not demanded a trade, and had Matt Leinart stepped up and won the QB job, I might be more optimistic. But Boldin did demand a trade and Leinart choked off training camp. If the injury prone players on their defense can stay on the field, they have a chance to beat this projection, but I'm not holding my breath.
25. Denver Broncos
2007 Prediction: 9-7
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 6-10
"Teflon" Mike Shanahan failed to accept any responsibility once again, what a shock! This team has three good players - Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Champ Bailey. Cutler will need to make those strides everyone in Denver has been talking about, and Ryan Clady and Tony Scheffler will have to step up big time just to get to six wins.
24. Cleveland Browns
2007 Prediction: 5-11
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 6-10
Cleveland had one of the easiest schedules last year and took advantage. Everything went right and they still didn't make the playoffs. In the offseason, they traded away their best defensive back, and they weren't strong at the position in the first place. In a related story, their out of division opponents include quarterbacks like Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Jason Campbell, David Garrard, Matt Schaub, Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb. Oh, and Cincy and Pittsburgh have pretty good quarterbacks too. This won't end well for the Browns.
23. Tennessee Titans
2007 Prediction: 8-8
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 6-10
I don't like this prediction very much. I actually think Tennessee is better than my prediction, but I also am a big believer in Houston this season, and it's very difficult for all four teams in one division to be good. This is a very hard-luck six win season.
22. Washington Redskins
2007 Prediction: 8-8
2007 Record: 9-7
2008 Prediction: 6-10
Like the Bears, the Redskins have very little offensive firepower. I keep hearing that Jason Campbell is going to be good, but until he has good receivers it's going to be hard to tell. I mean, James Thrash, seriously? Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts are still good, but defenses can stack seven to eight in the box on every play and feel confident that the Redskins aerial attack won't beat them consistently.
21. Detroit Lions
2007 Prediction: 4-12
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 6-10
If Calvin Johnson emerges as expected, the Lions should at least be very entertaining, as he and Roy Williams will be targeted all year. When you sign a waived and washed up Rudi Johnson with a week to go in the season, it's probably not a good sign for your ground game. And with mediocre defenders surrounding play makers Ernie Sims and Leigh Bodden, the defense isn't anything to write home about either.
20. St. Louis Rams
2007 Prediction: 5-11
2007 Record: 3-13
2008 Prediction: 7-9
If the Rams can stay out of the trainers room and Chris Long can make an immediate impact, the Rams should be much improved from last year. They won't be good per se, but they will be better. And that's something.
19. Oakland Raiders
2007 Prediction: 6-10
2007 Record: 4-12
2008 Prediction: 7-9
I am expecting big things from the JaMarcus Russell-Darren McFadden back field. The Raiders D is already solid, so if these two can produce better results then they will improve enough to be in position for a playoff spot in 2009.
18. Buffalo Bills
2007 Prediction: 6-10
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 8-8
The Bills keep getting better a little bit at a time. Trent Edwards should make more strides this year, and Marshawn Lynch already has. The defense got big additions with Kawika Mitchell and Marcus Stroud, and that will help them become a respectable unit.
17. Carolina Panthers
2007 Prediction: 9-7
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 8-8
Jake Delhomme may be pain free, but Steve Smith will miss a few games and they will be working in a rookie running back into the mix. They will be mediocre, which will almost be good enough in the NFC South.
16. New York Giants
2007 Prediction: 5-11
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 8-8
Like so many, I completely whiffed on my Giants prediction last season. That doesn't mean I will be fooled into thinking that they are now all powerful or something along those lines. They will be good enough to compete for a playoff spot, but will ultimately fall short. It would be a different story if they had Osi...
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2007 Prediction: 7-9
2007 Record: 9-7
2008 Prediction: 9-7
This team has got alligator blood, which is fitting given their geography. But what they have in toughness and fundamentals, they lack in star power. They will just miss the playoffs.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers
2007 Prediction: 10-6
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 9-7
Many people think it will be business as usual in the Steel City, but the weakened offensive line is troublesome. Second, they did very little to upgrade the team's starters. And third, their schedule is killer. Out of division opponents include Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, San Diego, New England and Dallas. That's a tough slate for any team to overcome, and Pittsburgh won't be up to the challenge this year.
13. New York Jets
2007 Prediction: 8-8
2007 Record: 4-12
2008 Prediction: 9-7
The Jets will be better. But if history has taught us anything, it's that you can't throw money at a problem and expect everything to be just jolly good fun. The Jets will be better because of their free agent imports, but they won't be good enough to make the playoffs. And playing those free agents will set back the progress they may have made with younger players.
12. Houston Texans
2007 Prediction: 4-12
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 10-6, AFC Wild Card
The Texans finished 8-8 last season, even though Matt Scaub, Andre Johnson and Dunta Robinson weren't healthy for most of the season. Critics will say they can't succeed without a running game, but they didn't have much of one last year and still turned out a halfway decent season. And with Alex Gibbs and Gary Kubiak's offensive minds at work, even a slight improvement in the running game will go a long way towards getting those extra two wins that will vault them into the playoffs.
11. Dallas Cowboys
2007 Prediction: 7-9
2007 Record: 13-3
2008 Prediction: 10-6, NFC Wild Card
Last year, I missed the mark by six wins with two teams - Dallas and Baltimore. Ouch. The Cowboys aren't very deep and are counting on most of the same players they did last year, so it would seem like they should be just as good. But last year they had a cupcake schedule, with New England and Green Bay their only out of division games against teams that made the playoffs. They lost to New England and might have lost to Green Bay if Brett Favre hadn't gotten hurt in the game. Then they came out and laid an egg at home versus the Giants in the playoffs. All of that shouts "good on paper, can't win when it counts." And thus, they get only a Wild Card berth.
10. New Orleans Saints
2007 Prediction: 10-6
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 10-6, NFC South Champs
Someone has to win this division, might as well be New Orleans...
9. Baltimore Ravens
2007 Prediction: 11-5
2007 Record: 5-11
2008 Prediction: 10-6, AFC North Champs
This was the other team I really messed up last year. But I think 2007 was an aberration rather than the start of a trend. If Joe Flacco can stay on his feet behind a line tasked with replacing Jonathan Ogden, Baltimore should once again be a strong team.
8. Indianapolis Colts
2007 Prediction: 12-4
2007 Record: 13-3
2008 Prediction: 11-5, AFC Wild Card
This will be the year that the Colts start to slip just a little bit. There is no way to know how the new dome will play, and no way of knowing how well oft-injured receiver Marvin Harrison will play now that he's supposedly healthy again. Everyone will be proclaiming the downfall of the Colts after they start 1-3, but they will practically run the table from there on out to claim a playoff spot.
7. Minnesota Vikings
2007 Prediction: 7-9
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 11-5, NFC Wild Card
The Vikings defense is going to be scary. Tavaris Jackson is underrated, and Adrian Peterson is rated right where he should be, at the elite level. The Vikings will be quite good, quite.
6. Seattle Seahawks
2007 Prediction: 9-7
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 11-5, NFC West Champs
Like Tampa, they're always hanging around. Seattle might not be an elite team, but as long as they can keep running off five or six wins within their division, they are going to be playing in January.
5. San Diego Chargers
2007 Prediction: 11-5
2007 Record: 11-5
2008 Prediction: 11-5, AFC West Champs
This Shawne Merriman thing can't turn out well, can it? Even without him, they are blessed with the combination of 1) still having a lot of play makers and 2) a really bad division. They should still get to 11 wins before folding in the playoffs.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
2007 Prediction: 12-4
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 11-5, NFC East Champs
The Eagles are once again creepin' on a come up. The already decent secondary got a huge upgrade with Asante Samuel, and throwing the ball on Philly is going to be incredibly difficult this season. Since
the pass defense was the only unit that didn't rank in the top 10 in the NFL overall, Samuel may actually be the final piece of the puzzle in Philadelphia. That prowess will be on full display in Week 17, when a 10-5 Eagles team will defeat a 10-5 Cowboys team at home for the division crown.
3. Green Bay Packers
2007 Prediction: 11-5
2007 Record: 13-3
2008 Prediction: 11-5, NFC North Champs
I was one of the few people to see that Green Bay would be good in 2007, and they will still be good in 2008, Favre or no Favre. Though they will finish with the same record as Minnesota, Green Bay will win the division by virtue of winning both match ups with the Purple People Eaters. Green Bay may be the deepest team in football 1-53 - not that they don't have a lot of front-end play makers as well.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
2007 Prediction: 9-7
2007 Record: 11-5
2008 Prediction: 13-3
Jacksonville is the one team that seems to pose the biggest threat to the Patriots this season. They played the Pats very tough in the playoffs last year, and David Garrard should be better in his second year as a starter. This Jags team will finally scale Mt. Indy, beating them both times in the regular season and once more in the playoffs for good measure. The second game will be especially dramatic, as a 10-4 Indianapolis team will visit a 12-2 Jacksonville team, needing to win to have any hope of winning the division. When the Jags win, they will be afforded the luxury of resting everyone in Week 17 at Baltimore, allowing Baltimore to punch their playoff ticket.
1. New England Patriots
2007 Prediction: 15-1
2007 Record: 16-0
2008 Prediction: 13-3
I don't think that this Patriots team is infallible by any means. Both the o-line and the secondary could use more depth, and Jerod Mayo is being asked to step in and be a starter right away. But the offense is the same dynamic machine it was last year, and Lawrence Maroney should be ready for a bigger role. I could see Jacksonville, Philadelphia or Green Bay stopping the Pats, but I learned a long time ago to not question Bill Belichick. His teams have advanced to at least the AFC Championship game in four of the last five years, and were a couple of bogus calls away from making it five for five. This is the team of the 2000's, and I expect that Belichick will find a way to lead this team back to the promised land. Plus, Brandon Meriweather is going to be a beast!
Playoffs:
2007: 5 of 12 teams picked correctly
2008:
AFC - 6 Houston beats 3 San Diego; 5 Indianapolis beats 4 Baltimore; 1 New England beats 6 Houston; 2 Jacksonville beats 5 Indianapolis; 1 New England beats 2 Jacksonville
NFC - 6 Dallas beats 3 Seattle; 5 Minnesota beats 4 New Orleans; 1 Green Bay beats 6 Dallas; 2 Philadelphia beats 5 Minnesota; 2 Philadelphia beats 1 Green Bay
Super Bowl XLIII - New England 35, Philadelphia 23
MVP - Lawrence Maroney
As I said before, it will be difficult to throw on Philadelphia this season. As such, Belichick will rely on the ground game, with Maroney leading the way. The Pats will pull ahead 35-13 early in the fourth before a late Philly rally comes up short.
Ok, it's late. Sorry if I rambled, but there are the picks, set in stone.
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
NFL Playoff Picks
It's playoff time. Here's my bracket:
AFC
The Game:
6 Tennessee
3 San Diego
The Pick: Tennessee. Norv Turner and Philip Rivers in the playoffs is a disastrous combination, no matter who plays QB for the Titans. Look for LDT to step quickly out of bounds whenever contact is imminent, and then blame the loss on his teammates that "lacked heart." Someday somebody will catch on to his act, but it probably won't be this year.
The Game:
4 Pittsburgh
5 Jacksonville
The Pick: Jacksonville. This is one of those seldom seen cases where the division winner has a worse record than the Wild Card team. Pittsburgh is the worse team here anyway you slice it, and you can bet that their special teams will cost them on at least one big play.
The Game:
6 Tennessee
1 New England
The Pick: New England. A well coached team like Tennessee can beat a poorly coached team like San Diego despite having inferior talent, but when they come up against an equally well - if not better - coached team such as New England, their talent will lose out every time.
The Game:
5 Jacksonville
2 Indianapolis
The Pick: Jacksonville. This is Jacksonville's Super Bowl. After romping over the Colts in Week 14 last season, the Jags have come up short in 2007. But it's tough to beat an NFL team three times in one season, and Jacksonville is primed for this upset.
The Game:
5 Jacksonville
1 New England
The Pick: New England. After vanquishing the Colts, the Jags won't have enough fight in them to overthrow the Patriots. But even if they did, the Patriots would be too much for them. Simply put, this Patriots team has been the best team of all-time through 16 games and there is no reason why that is about to change. Bill Belichick has demanded 60 minutes from his players every week, and they have delivered each and every time.
NFC
The Game:
6 Washington
3 Seattle
The Pick: Washington. Seattle is a paper champion. Despite the difference in seeding and the shape of their seasons, Washington is just about Seattle's equal according to Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. And while Washington was busy tussling with 8 playoff teams, the Hawks only played two, and none since early October. The only other team they played with a winning record this year was Cleveland, a game they lost. So you have two fairly even teams, but one is battle tested and riding a possibly unprecedented emotional high. This isn't rocket science.
The Game:
4 Tampa Bay
5 New York
The Pick: New York. I just don't see how Jeff Garcia can come in and play effectively after so much time off, especially with the Giants D line chasing him all over the field. Furthermore, the Giants have the weapons to turn this into a shootout, and the Bucs don't. They need games to be low scoring, and the outcome, like most involving Eli Manning will hinge on whether or not the Giants can put the points on the board of which they are capable. I'm betting they will be. However, I will hedge and say that this is the upset with which I'm least comfortable.
The Game:
6 Washington
1 Dallas
The Pick: Washington. I just can't shake the image of Tony Romo fumbling at the goal line last January. He needs to win a playoff game before I'm going to start trusting him. Also, the Cowboys are coached by Wade Phillips, a notorious choker on par with Norv Turner.
The Game:
5 New York
2 Green Bay
The Pick: Green Bay. This game is going to have one of those 1993 feels. Maybe FOX can get Pat Summerall and John Madden back in the booth. While that probably won't happen, what will happen is Bret Favre riddling the depleted Giants secondary with bullets the likes of which Jeff Garcia can't even fathom.
The Game:
6 Washington
2 Green Bay
The Pick: Green Bay. The magic runs out for Joe Gibbs' troop, but not before the entire world knows how well they've come together in the wake of Sean Taylor's death. It is very much a remarkable story, but the way the media sensationalizes everything, I'm sure a lot of people will be tired of hearing about it by the time this game ends.
SUPER BOWL XLII
New England vs. Green Bay
The Pick: New England. In this rematch of Super Bowl XXXI, the Packers will not have Desmond Howard to run back two kicks for touchdowns. Enough has been said about this Patriots team, I don't need to re-hash why they're brilliant. Belichick will do what Belichick does best - take away the other team's biggest strength. The Pats will cut down Favre's slant routes, and players like Tedy Bruschi and Asante Samuel will come up with big INT's. The Super Bowl MVP will go to the aforementioned Bruschi, who will play the game of his life, and then promptly retire in good health and with four rings.
AFC
The Game:
6 Tennessee
3 San Diego
The Pick: Tennessee. Norv Turner and Philip Rivers in the playoffs is a disastrous combination, no matter who plays QB for the Titans. Look for LDT to step quickly out of bounds whenever contact is imminent, and then blame the loss on his teammates that "lacked heart." Someday somebody will catch on to his act, but it probably won't be this year.
The Game:
4 Pittsburgh
5 Jacksonville
The Pick: Jacksonville. This is one of those seldom seen cases where the division winner has a worse record than the Wild Card team. Pittsburgh is the worse team here anyway you slice it, and you can bet that their special teams will cost them on at least one big play.
The Game:
6 Tennessee
1 New England
The Pick: New England. A well coached team like Tennessee can beat a poorly coached team like San Diego despite having inferior talent, but when they come up against an equally well - if not better - coached team such as New England, their talent will lose out every time.
The Game:
5 Jacksonville
2 Indianapolis
The Pick: Jacksonville. This is Jacksonville's Super Bowl. After romping over the Colts in Week 14 last season, the Jags have come up short in 2007. But it's tough to beat an NFL team three times in one season, and Jacksonville is primed for this upset.
The Game:
5 Jacksonville
1 New England
The Pick: New England. After vanquishing the Colts, the Jags won't have enough fight in them to overthrow the Patriots. But even if they did, the Patriots would be too much for them. Simply put, this Patriots team has been the best team of all-time through 16 games and there is no reason why that is about to change. Bill Belichick has demanded 60 minutes from his players every week, and they have delivered each and every time.
NFC
The Game:
6 Washington
3 Seattle
The Pick: Washington. Seattle is a paper champion. Despite the difference in seeding and the shape of their seasons, Washington is just about Seattle's equal according to Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. And while Washington was busy tussling with 8 playoff teams, the Hawks only played two, and none since early October. The only other team they played with a winning record this year was Cleveland, a game they lost. So you have two fairly even teams, but one is battle tested and riding a possibly unprecedented emotional high. This isn't rocket science.
The Game:
4 Tampa Bay
5 New York
The Pick: New York. I just don't see how Jeff Garcia can come in and play effectively after so much time off, especially with the Giants D line chasing him all over the field. Furthermore, the Giants have the weapons to turn this into a shootout, and the Bucs don't. They need games to be low scoring, and the outcome, like most involving Eli Manning will hinge on whether or not the Giants can put the points on the board of which they are capable. I'm betting they will be. However, I will hedge and say that this is the upset with which I'm least comfortable.
The Game:
6 Washington
1 Dallas
The Pick: Washington. I just can't shake the image of Tony Romo fumbling at the goal line last January. He needs to win a playoff game before I'm going to start trusting him. Also, the Cowboys are coached by Wade Phillips, a notorious choker on par with Norv Turner.
The Game:
5 New York
2 Green Bay
The Pick: Green Bay. This game is going to have one of those 1993 feels. Maybe FOX can get Pat Summerall and John Madden back in the booth. While that probably won't happen, what will happen is Bret Favre riddling the depleted Giants secondary with bullets the likes of which Jeff Garcia can't even fathom.
The Game:
6 Washington
2 Green Bay
The Pick: Green Bay. The magic runs out for Joe Gibbs' troop, but not before the entire world knows how well they've come together in the wake of Sean Taylor's death. It is very much a remarkable story, but the way the media sensationalizes everything, I'm sure a lot of people will be tired of hearing about it by the time this game ends.
SUPER BOWL XLII
New England vs. Green Bay
The Pick: New England. In this rematch of Super Bowl XXXI, the Packers will not have Desmond Howard to run back two kicks for touchdowns. Enough has been said about this Patriots team, I don't need to re-hash why they're brilliant. Belichick will do what Belichick does best - take away the other team's biggest strength. The Pats will cut down Favre's slant routes, and players like Tedy Bruschi and Asante Samuel will come up with big INT's. The Super Bowl MVP will go to the aforementioned Bruschi, who will play the game of his life, and then promptly retire in good health and with four rings.
Sunday, November 25, 2007
The Excitement Factor
The NFL this year has been severely lacking in excitement. Whether it's been the Patriots just destroying everyone, the Colts methodical plug-in approach, the severe lack of quality quarterbacking or just some thoroughly mediocre play, this season has been fairly boring. However, each week I find myself looking forward to a bunch of games anyways, games that end up being exciting. Henceforth, I have concocted a completely unscientific, probably biased and certainly flawed Excitement Factor meter. So, each Sunday for the rest of the season, simply look at the schedule, and then add up the two team's totals using the Excitement Factor meter and you'll know what games to watch. You're welcome.
5 - Consistently exciting
Cleveland
Dallas
Detroit
Green Bay
New England
Pittsburgh
4 - Usually exciting, but sometimes put up stinkers
Cincinnati
New Orleans
San Diego
Washington
3 - Kind of just there
Arizona
Chicago
Denver
Houston
Indianapolis
Jacksonville
New York Giants
Philadelphia
Seattle
Tennessee
2 - Extended periods of boredom punctuated by big plays
Atlanta
Buffalo
Kansas City
Minnesota
Tampa Bay
1 - Rather punch myself in the face
Baltimore
Carolina
Miami
New York Jets
Oakland
St. Louis
San Francisco
5 - Consistently exciting
Cleveland
Dallas
Detroit
Green Bay
New England
Pittsburgh
4 - Usually exciting, but sometimes put up stinkers
Cincinnati
New Orleans
San Diego
Washington
3 - Kind of just there
Arizona
Chicago
Denver
Houston
Indianapolis
Jacksonville
New York Giants
Philadelphia
Seattle
Tennessee
2 - Extended periods of boredom punctuated by big plays
Atlanta
Buffalo
Kansas City
Minnesota
Tampa Bay
1 - Rather punch myself in the face
Baltimore
Carolina
Miami
New York Jets
Oakland
St. Louis
San Francisco
Sunday, September 02, 2007
NFL 2007: Simpsons Style
Did you know that The Simpsons Movie came out this summer? Sometimes our society astounds me. The phrase "out with the old, in with the new" has been sped up to the point where something is "old" only hours after it's "new." Next week, the NFL season kicks off, and with it the quest for Super Bowl 42 (or XLII, but I think the Roman numerals are a little antiquated at this point). By the time October rolls around, most talking heads will have revised their predictions 47 times, because, well they're talking heads. That's what they do. Myself, I don't have time to revise my predictions, I only want to make them once. Measure twice, cut once as my father would say. And before I slip off my soapbox and break my neck, here they are in reverse order, with each team likened to a character on The Simpsons in honor of that glorious Simpons Movie.
32. Atlanta Falcons (3-13) - Kirk Van Houten
Named for the most disgraced man in the town of Springfield. If you don't get the analogy, well then perhaps you'd like to crawl out of your cave and join the rest of civilization. Maybe someday Michael Vick will earn redemption in the same manner that Kirk did when he eventually got back together with Luann, but like Kirk after he got divorced, fired, had his demo tape laughed at and his car stolen, things don't seem like they could be worse for the Falcons. Already facing the daunting challenge of blending with a rookie coach, now they must do so with Joey Harrington at the helm and Warrick Dunn recovering from back surgery. Count me among those who don't think Harrington is as bad as his reputation, but he sure has some awful, awful luck. When you're pointing to a 35-year old Joe Horn as the bright spot of your offense, and you're counting on the always fragile John Abraham to spark your defense, things aren't looking good.
31. Miami Dolphins (3-13) - Frank Grimes
Ol' Grimey had it pretty bad in life, having to overcome obstacle after obstacle to make his way, and when he finally did, he ended up dead shortly thereafter. The Dolphins have put obstacle after obstacle in front of themselves this season. When Nick Saban quit it meant they had to hire a new coach once again, and one of their up and coming candidates - Jason Garrett - jumped ship to Dallas as quickly as humanly possible. They then drafted Ted Ginn instead of Brady Quinn, and compounded their mistake by trading for an over-the-hill QB in Trent Green. At 37 years old, Green has no chance of being part of the next great Dolphins team, assuring that the Fish would do no better than tread water this season rather than really rebuild. And if that weren't bad enough, the Dolphins will have the second hardest schedule in the NFL this year. Finally, with the Patriots coming to town in Week 7 this year, they won't be primed for a letdown in Miami like they were last year.
30. Kansas City Chiefs (4-12) - Scratchy the Cat
Every afternoon, Itchy kills Scratchy, and yet the next afternoon there's Scratchy, up to his old antics and not realizing that Itchy has it in for him yet again. By not attempting to upgrade his offense to complement Larry Johnson this offseason, Carl Peterson and Herman Edwards effectively sentenced the Chiefs offense to be Scratchy to opposing defenses' Itchy all season. Oh sure, Scratchy has a weapon up his sleeve in Larry Johnson, a nice rusty chainsaw to hack at the defense. But with no aerial attack to speak of, it will seem as though opposing defenses have a cannon, a nuclear bomb, a...you get the idea. The Chiefs will be over matched on offense, and no matter how much their average defense improves, it simply won't be enough to be competitive. Ty Law deserves better.
29. Detroit Lions (4-12) - Selma Bouvier Terwilliger Hutz McClure Stu Simpson
You would think the Herb Powell analogy would fit well here, but don't forget that Powell made himself into a multi-millionaire - twice. That kind of creativity hasn't been seen in Matt Millen's office, well, ever. No, Aunt Selma works best here. Aunt Selma is always falling for a new love, while Matt Millen is always falling for a new wide receiver. Like Selma however, Matt Millen and the Lions are destined to end up right back where they started - in the cellar. The Lions are really in a sorry state - of their four projected wins, I don't have them beating even one winning team. All the receivers in the world won't help this team. If you need to win a shootout in Madden 2007, this might be the team you take. But without a proven running attack or a QB who can consistently hit on the 50 yard pass (only 6% of Kitna's completed passes were deep balls last year), you might not even pick Detroit for that purpose.
28. Houston Texans (4-12) - Gil Gunderson
Old Gil never succeeds at anything he does. From car salesman to lawyer to real estate agent, Gil is repeatedly kicked to the curb. The Texans are building what could be a very good defense in time. But one could have said that two years ago when it looked as though the Texans could form a nucleus around Jason Babin and Travis Johnson (as Football Outsiders ably points out in their Texans preview). Perhaps it will be different for them in the future, or perhaps they'll be like Old Gil - always trying to get one big score so their wives will stop cheating on them (aka rooting for the Cowboys).
27. Cleveland Browns (5-11) - Troy McClure (RIP)
He made us laugh didn't he? Once on top of the world, Troy was booted out of the spotlight due to his paraphilia. The Browns went through a similar downturn in fortunes, though theirs was caused by a greedy owner who moved his team out of town rather than paraphilia. Right now, the Browns are in the stage where they're just starting to date Selma. Pretty soon, MacArthur Parker will be calling the Browns, saying things like "that Brady Quinn has made you sexy again!" and "that Kellen Winslow is just what we need to shake up Hollywood!" Hopefully for Browns fans, the story will end differently than it did for Troy, and frankly, I think it will. Just not this season. In a different division, the Browns would probably be a seven, or even eight win team. In this division, they will be fighting for their lives. But in 2008, the tune will be "get your paws off me you dirty ape!"
26. St. Louis (5-11) - Artie Ziff
All flash, no finish. Artie was the Internet billionaire who lost it all when the bubble burst. From partying with Scottie Pippen and Jeneane Garofalo to watching the walls come down crashing around him, Ziff had too many highs, too many lows and simply not enough of the creamy middles that Homer likes so much. Stephen Jackson might be the best running back in football along with LDT, and Marc Bulger might be an elite quarterback with a number of weapons at his disposal. But when you're going full speed ahead, often you don't remember to watch your back. The Rams have no defense, and haven't since Lovie Smith graduated to Chicago in 2004. When your best player on defense is an alcoholic just one empty liquor bottle away from his next DUI, it becomes increasingly clear that all the flash in the world isn't going to amount to much at the end of the season.
25. New York Giants (5-11) - Chief Clancy Wiggum
Victories are rare in Chief Wiggum's world. Like Flanders once chastised, the last thing Wiggum got to the bottom of was a case of Malamars. Even when he does beat Rex Banner to the punch, he winds up putting the screws to Homer. When he catches Kirk Van Houten for kidnapping, it's only because he hears the crackling sound of Chinsy Pop, the world's cheapest popcorn, which he knows only because he too eats the shameful stuff. When the Giants find competent pieces for their attack, it often comes with a cost. Eli Manning cost them a bounty in draft picks and players. Plaxico Burress can stretch the field, but he doesn't play hard every down. Michael Strahan's career numbers match up with Lawrence Taylor's, but he's such a distraction and caricature that nobody notices. Owners of the third hardest schedule in 2007, saddled with what is almost certainly a lame duck coach and with ex-players like Tiki Barber still haunting the team with his talking-head potshots, it's going to be a long year for the New York football Giants.
24. Arizona Cardinals (6-10) - Edna Krabappel
"Bart, this is your teacher? I have to start going to Parent's Night." Oh, Mrs. Krabappel may be very sexy, but she comes with the baggage that any jilted lover does. Once again, the Cardinals are the toast of the fantasy football universe, with Larry Fitgerald and Anquan Boldin having established themselves among the fantasy elite, with Matt Leinart not far behind and the Edge still a reliable target. But like St. Louis, where' the defense? With yet another new coaching staff in a seemingly endless carousel, the Cards were facing an uphill battle already in 2007. But when they lost their best pass rusher, Chike Okeafor, for the season, the task is now almost insurmountable. However, with Levi Brown at left tackle, and Ken Whisenhunt hopefully doing for Leinart what he did for Ben Roethlisberger, 2008 finally could be the year that Arizona puts everything together.
23. Oakland Raiders (6-10) - Grandpa Simpson
He's annoying, he's a pain in your butt, but every once in awhile he hatches a worthwhile scheme (like the Simpson & Son aphrodisiac). The Raiders have the opposite problem that the Cards and Rams do, they have little offense to go with a killer defense. Generally, you'd rather have the killer defense, so that's good news for residents of the Black Hole. And with a little luck, perhaps Duante Culpepper to Ronald Curry can become a dynamite combo, and either LaMont Jordan, Dominic Rhodes or Michael Bush can be the answer at running back. Until then, the biggest story in Raidersville will likely be whether or not JaMarcus Russell is going to sign with the silver and black. Until then, they'll just be the crazy old man rambling on the sideline, hoisting onions on their belt.
22. Buffalo Bills (6-10) - Hans Moleman
Can't do much right, no one seems to know he's alive. When he gets water splashed on him by others and they laugh, he can't even stomach the backbone to get upset, lamenting simply "I'm glad to have shared in their fun." Indeed the Bills have shared in the fun of others this past decade, watching as everyone (except for the Texans) in the AFC has made the playoffs but them. Generally, when a team loses four of its best players in one offseason - as the Bills did this offseason when they lost Nate Clements, Willis McGahee, London Fletcher-Baker and Takeo Spikes - it would be a major story about which analysts would churn out column inch after column inch. When it happens in Buffalo, everyone shrugs their collective shoulders. Where have you gone, Jim Kelly?
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) - Principal Seymour Skinner
Like the Bucs and Jon Gruden, Principal Skinner always thinks that salvation is just a quick fix away. Whether it's striking oil under the school, reaping the proceeds from the lottery or tricking Lisa Simpson into spilling the beans about her cheating to the "fake" comptroller, Seymour is always up to something. The same goes for the Bucs. Rather than admitting that they are in a downturn, and that they should give Chris Simms a year to get things sorted out and then really build around him in 2008, Gruden instead imported free agent graybeards like Jeff Garcia and Joey Galloway. They will bring the Bucs back to respectability, but they will be hard pressed to help the Bucs regain their now forgotten championship swagger.
20. Dallas Cowboys (7-9) - "Diamond" Joe Quimby
I suppose Rich Texan would work too, but that just seems way too easy. Always in the news, always full of themselves and never aware that they're headed for a fall, Quimby and the Cowboys have much in common. They don't realize that there's ANOTHER election this November or that their schedule is the fifth hardest in the league. All they see when they look in the mirror are those pearly whites, bulging muscles and the arrogance that comes with being on top of the world for so long. "Diamond" Joe hasn't received his comeuppance yet, but the Cowboys certainly will this year. Get ready for tons of "what if the Cowboys had drafted Brady Quinn?" stories come January.
19. Minnesota Vikings (7-9) - Maggie Simpson
Minnesota is the team you never hear about, but you know that they're there. Who's playing quarterback? Is it still Randall Cunningham? Or Brad Johnson? Or Randall Johnson? No, this year it's Tavaris Jackson, although at 44, Cunningham might do just as well as Jackson will this season. Though they are backed by a very strong run defense and a burgeoning rushing attack, the Purple People Eaters will nevertheless miss Mike Tomlin, who has moved on to coach the Pittsburgh Steelers, and an incredibly unreliable receiving corps will make Jackson look worse than he is. And he won't be very good at all. All told, it will likely be another faceless season that fades into the background. Kind of like Maggie.
18. Washington Redskins (8-8) - Marge Simpson
Marge is loyal, and above moral reproach. When she was wrongfully locked away in prison for one month, the town realized how much they missed her and altered a statue of Jimmy Carter into her likeness. No one erected a statue (that I know of) to commemorate Joe Gibbs when he retired to focus full-time on NASCAR, but he was certainly missed in a Redskins front office run amok. Since returning, he has moved with the same pace as Marge - slow and steady. Jason Campbell was probably ready to start full-time last year at QB, but Gibbs waited the majority of the season before plugging him in. And while the Skins made the playoffs in '05, changes were needed, but came slowly. They still aren't coming fast - the Skins have plenty of star power but little depth. After a solid '07 campaign with Campbell at the helm, they will hopefully find that depth, and build towards even better things in 2008.
17. New York Jets (8-8) - Martin Prince, Jr.
A fat, sniveling know-it-all who has the brains to rule the world, but certainly not the charisma. Wait, am I talking about Eric Mangini or Martin Prince, Jr.? Well, both really. The New York media machine had dubbed him the "Mangenius", and hoisted celebrity status on the former Pats assistant, but the media is still in its honeymoon period. Like all honeymoons in New York, it will be short lived. The Jets made improvements heading into 2007, but they also played worse than their record indicated in 2006. Football Outsiders' DVOA statistic is the most innovative stat that translates what we see on the field into meaningful numbers. Overall, a team wants a positive DVOA for a season or a game, expressed in a percentage. Last season, the Jets won two games when they had a negative DVOA, and won two others with a DVOA of less than 7%. Conversely though, they deserved to lose the games that they lost - there were no positive DVOA losses for the Jets in 2006. Knock 2-3 wins off their 2006 total and they end up with 7 or 8 wins, rather than 10. This season, the Jets will improve, but because they got some lucky bounces last year, it will APPEAR that they are doing worse. 2008 is the year they will put it all together. Or like Martin's soap box racer, it could just be the year when their world goes careening out of control, because their know-it-all coach can't turn his book smarts into production on the field.
16. Tennessee Titans (8-8) - Krusty the Clown
Sometimes he has his act together, sometimes he doesn't. But he's always there. Krusty the Clown has been smart enough to license his name and make a large fortune and later to fake his own death, but in between he was dumb enough to bet on the Washington Generals and squander everything. Jeff Fisher has been smart enough to hitch his wagon to Steve McNair and Eddie George, but dumb enough to hitch it to Pacman Jones and Joe Nedney. Sometimes, like with the "Music City Miracle", he's been very fortunate, but other times, like with "The Tackle", he's been very unfortuntate. So which category will the Vince Young era fit in? That remains to be seen, but my bet would be in the "fortunate" category. Though Pacman's suspension and a host of unproven players surrounding Young on offense will prevent the Titans from fully making the leap into contention this year, the future is still bright in the Music City. Like it reads on the state's welcome sign, Tennessee'n is Tennebelievin'.
15. Seattle Seahawks (9-7) - Cookie Kwan
Cookie Kwan, like the Seahawks, is number one on the west side. But Cookie never ventured out of her neighborhood, and the Seahawks rarely do either. The Seahawks have made the playoffs four straight years, and won the NFC West three straight years, but the 'Hawks are just 3-5 in the playoffs, and in only one season did they advance to the conference championship. This is the year when the 'Hawks will not be number one on the west side. Shaun Alexander is aging rapidly, as is the club's offensive line. Conventional wisdom holds that if Seattle can stay healthy this season, they have the talent to walk away with the division. But real wisdom holds that a successful NFL team is not one that is loaded from players 1-15, but rather one that is balanced from 1-53. The Seahawks team composition leans more towards the former, and this is the year that that takes a bite out of their playoff chances.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) - Moe Szyslak
Every year there is a team that is bound for glory, if they can just stay out of their own way. Football Outsiders projections tabbed the Jags as having the second best projection in football this season behind only the Patriots. In addition to a rock-solid defense and evolving running attack, one of the strong points for the Jags was their quarterback Byron Leftwich. At the peak age of 27 when quarterbacks historically have their best season and usually earn a trip to Hawaii, Leftwich is primed for a breakout year. Unfortunately for Jacksonville fans, he will do it with another team. Earlier this week, Jags coach Jack Del Rio named backup and lesser quarterback David Garrard as his starter. Such a poor decision is akin to the type of chicanery Moe is known for. Whether it's opening Uncle Moe's Family Feedbag, killing Alfalfa, not selling the Flaming Moe's recipe, stealing Shamu, buying only one inch of bulletproof glass, or giving away soap opera plot lines, you can always count on Moe to make the wrong decision. Same as Jack "Chopping Wood" Del Rio.
13. Denver Broncos (9-7) - Comic Book Guy, aka Jeff Albertson
The Comic Book Guy thinks he knows everything. He is all alone in the world in the power of his knowledge, but he also runs a very successful business. Mike Shanahan thinks he knows everything, even calling himself "The Ultimate Leader" in his own biography. Like the Comic Book Guy, he also runs a very successful business, as the Broncos will likely sell out their games as long as Shanahan is at the helm. But the Comic Book Guy eventually has a heart attack. It doesn't kill him, but it certainly forces him to re-evaluate things. The Broncos were forced to reevaluate things after they missed the playoffs last year, something that gave their fans a collective heart attack. Gone is much of the old guard who led the Broncos to the AFC Championship just two years ago - Al Wilson, Jake Plummer, Tatum Bell, etc. Newcomers like Travis "the babymaker" Henry, Jay Cutler and a slew of new defensive lineman are supposed to lead the Broncos back to the promised land. But Cutler faces an uphill battle. Quick - name a successful Vanderbilt University alumni in the NFL. On offense, the list is nonexistent. Shanahan is hoping that Cutler is the best. quarterback. ever, but history dictates that he will fall short of that mark, and he will take the Broncos playoff hopes with him.
12. Carolina Panthers (9-7, NFC Wild Card) - Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
Apu is an ingrained American immigrant - the Panthers are an ingrained NFL immigrant. Apu has a very strong work ethic, as do the Panthers, an ethic instilled in them by their head coach John Fox. Apu doesn't have all the angles figured out in trying to take care of his eight children, and Panthers QB Jake Delhomme doesn't have all the angles figured out in trying to take care of his ten teammates on offense. With too little impact from the running game, the Panthers were too often forced into third and long last season. Eventually, this ruined their season; their hopes crumbled when a four game losing second half losing streak allowed New Orleans to leapfrog over them and land the Panthers on the outside looking in. This year, the Panthers will improve ever so slightly, squeaking back into the playoffs as a Wild Card team. Unfortunately, they won't get past that, and decisions will need to be made in the offseason as to what direction the Panthers will take in 2008 and beyond.
11. San Francisco 49ers (10-6, NFC West Champs) - Squeaky Voiced Teen
The 49ers are still the young punks at the dance, good enough to know they belong, but not good enough to know what to do once they get inside. We learned at the end of the Simpsons Movie that the Squeaky Voiced Teen actually has a film school degree. He is going places - eventually. But right now, he's only managed to get his start in the industry. The Niners are the same. The rapidly improving nucleus of Frank Gore, Alex Smith and Vernon Davis, combined with savvy veteran additions like Nate Clements and Darrell Jackson have San Fran's star on the rise once again. In 2008, they will add even more talent to the mix, and with Patrick Willis and Jason Hill rounding into shape alongside the three offensive linchpins, the Niners will be a Super Bowl contender once again.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, AFC Wild Card) - Dr. Julius Hibbert
His diagnoses are always a buzzkill, but he laughs at them anyways. It's the kind of sense of humor that only a Steelers fan can appreciate, delighting in the misery of others. The Steelers under Bill Cowher certainly heaped a lot of misery and misfortune on their opponents, and with bright young defensive mind Mike Tomlin taking the reins, that trend is sure to continue. In a loaded AFC North they won't get all the way to the cream of the crop in 2007, and jettisoning veterans like Joey Porter will let the team find a new identity under Tomlin and Roethlisberger. Come 2008, the Steel City will be waiving their terrible towels for a Super Bowl contender once again. This year, they will have to be content to stay on the fringes of playoff competition.
9. New Orleans Saints (10-6, NFC South Champs) - Bart Simpson
The fun-loving scamp that is always going a mile a minute most closely fits to the Saints personality. Behind a high powered offense, the Saints are fun to watch, and they have inspired a city, much like Bart inspired Springfield with "the power." And though the Saints defense betrayed them in the playoffs last season, it was much better during the second half than it was during the first half. With the team's biggest defensive weakness - cornerback - receiving a big boost in the free agent signing of Jason David, the only question for the Saints D is can it stay healthy throughout 2007. If it can, the Saints could bombard the competition like Bart did with so many water balloons. If not, the Saints will end up battered and bruised, like when Bart dislocated his elbow and knocked himself unconscious. Either way, it promises to be an another exciting season down in the Crescent City.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6, AFC Wild Card) - C. Montgomery Burns
Like Mr. Burns, the Bengals seem to have no moral compass whatsoever, doing whatever necessary, but more importantly hiring whomever necessary to get the job done. Of course, that kind of thinking doesn't always pay off, as the Bengals and their record number of entries in the police blotter demonstrated last year. Also like Mr. Burns, the Bengals have been incredibly stubborn. Though their defense had more holes than a chain link fence last year, Cincinnati did little other than draft cornerback Leon Hall. Until they see the error of their ways, they will remain a domineering team that can't put the final pieces of world domination together.
7. Green Bay Packers (11-5, NFC Wild Card, NFC CHAMPIONS) - Homer Simpson
Homer Simpson might be the very definition of the phrase "Wild Card." No city better fits Homer than Green Bay, a city where a man can eat all the bratwurst and drink all the beer he possibly can. Bret Favre has a lot of Homer in him as well, the old-fashioned gunslinger who isn't concerned with small things like stats. Bret just wants to do the Lambeau Leap, something you know Homer would enjoy, as long as he had Principal Skinner's back to launch himself from (like when he dunked during a pickup basketball game). Like Homer, the Packers are about to go on a wild ride through the NFC, falling just short of Chicago for the NFC North crown, but getting their revenge in the NFC Championship game. And when the Packers ultimately fall short in the Super Bowl like Homer did in his title bout with Drederick Tatum, they won't be devastated or upset. They'll simply be happy that their gunslinger got one final ride into the sunset, and that he made it out alive to tell the story. And then they'll get loaded!
6. Chicago Bears (11-5, NFC North Champs) - Lou
Lovie Smith is a very intelligent man, a great leader who has transformed the Bears into a championship club seemingly overnight. But like police sergeant Lou, his fortunes are ever-tied to his less competent partner. A head coach can guide his team, but the most important player on the field is the quarterback. In Rex Grossman, as in Chief Wiggum, Lovie and Lou have hitched their wagons to someone who is probably going to come up short in the end. The Bears will still have a dominant defense this year, and if Cedric Benson can stay upright for a whole season, he and the "other" Adrian Peterson will combine to give Chicago an excellent running game. However, the season still rests on the impulsive right arm of "Sexy Rexy". While he will likely be better in 2007, simply because he couldn't be any worse than he was down the stretch in 2006, when it comes down to it, who do you trust - Grossman or Favre? For that simple reason, the Packers will end up besting the Bears and advancing to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLII. With Lance Briggs seemingly out the door at the end of the season, it could be the last chance that Brian Urlacher and the Bears D has to fulfill their dreams.
5. San Diego Chargers (11-5, AFC West Champs) - Hank Scorpio
Blazing a trail of glory, and having enough money to own the Denver Broncos, Hank Scorpio was a once-in-a-series character, though he was sort of reincarnated for The Movie. His schemes are brilliant on paper, but lacking in execution. The Chargers, behind the incredible wattage of stars like LDT, Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, Marcus McNeill, Jamal Williams and steroid users Shawne Merriman and Luis Castillo, are formidable paper tigers. With Norv Turner now at the helm however, the Bolts will continue to look much better on paper than they do on the field. Turner is infamous for his lack of motivational skills as a coach, as evidenced by listless squads with Washington and Oakland. Rivers will make strides, and Vincent Jackson and Eric Parker should emerge as a very good WR combo to team with Gates and LDT, but in the end the Chargers will not be able to harness the little things that champions do.
4. Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North Champs) - Nelson Muntz
The big bully. Nelson, along with Jimbo, Dolph and Kearney, are the bad boys of Springfield Elementary. Either "Fat Tony" or "Snake" would fit for the Ravens as well, but Nelson's taunting "Ha Ha's" and "stop hitting yourself" cut to the core of what the Baltimore Ravens truly are - bullies that like doling out the punishment. They make sure you know you are being punished, and revel in it almost to the point where they take their eyes off the prize. This season, the Ravens have not taken their eyes off the prize. They traded for Willis McGahee and believe they have replacements for linebacker Adalius Thomas and tackle Tony Pashos. With Mark Clayton emerging alongside Derrick Mason and Todd Heap, the Ravens actually have formidable aerial weapons now as well. Combined with McGahee, McNair and a dominant line, the Ravens are primed for another run to glory. It will be a run that will take them to the AFC Championship, but their blue collar style will ultimately fall short in the end.
3. Indianapolis Colts (12-4, AFC South Champs) - Ned Flanders
He's so good that you hate him. Stupid Flanders. Stupid Peyton. Oh sure, you laugh at each one on Sundays, Flanders in primetime, and Manning seemingly every commercial break, but they are both formidable foes that kill you with kindness and kill you with efficiency. Just like Flanders is always flanked by his robotic like sons Rodd & Todd, so too is Manning flanked by his robotic receivers Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Unfortunately the Colts of last year are the Colts of this year. Last year, they beat the Ravens in the divisional round of the playoffs by a mere nine points. Their powerhouse offense only outgained Baltimore's by 17 yards. This season, with Baltimore closing the gap offensively and Indy not closing the gap defensively, Indy's time is up. Fortunately for them, they won the Super Bowl last year and are in the Bill Simmons' patented five year grace period.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-4, NFC East Champs) - Rev. Timothy Lovejoy
Rev. Lovejoy is a pillar of the community, or so it would seem. Beneath his seemingly sincere love and care for the citizens of Springfield's as its spiritual purveyor, Lovejoy is actually a bad apple. He instructs his dog to poop on Flanders' lawn, gives apathetic advice to callers and indulges his wife Helen, who is the town gossiphound. The Eagles carry a similar, empty veneer. They have been perennial contenders in the '00's, but behind each success story there is drama boiling underneath the surface. Whether it's T.O., the drafting of Kevin Kolb, Andy Reid's delinquent sons, there's always drama in Philly. Fortunately, like the show, the forecast is always sunny in Philadelphia as well. The Eagles still have the league's most talented squad, and assuming QB Donovan McNabb can keep on his feet for 17 weeks, Philly will be the Super Bowl favorite come January. Running up against the buzzsaw that will be the Green Bay Packers will certainly be no cause for alarm, but that doesn't mean the alarm won't be sounded anyways. After all, it's Philly. Somewhere, Rev. Lovejoy is nodding his head knowingly.
1. New England Patriots (15-1, AFC East Champs, AFC CHAMPIONS, SUPER BOWL XLII CHAMPIONS) - Lisa Simpson
You really want to hate her. You do. You know you do. Sure, she's eight years old, but she just knows everything! How is that possible? But she always has an answer, and it's always the right answer. Not only that, but she makes it count when the chips are down. Win a spelling bee? Check. Climb the "Eliminator"? Check. Become a ruthless hockey goalie? Check. Lisa's conquests are too long to name here, as are those of Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Patriots. Loaded up for another title run in 2007, the Patriots won't even feel the brunt of losing Rodney Harrison and Richard Seymour for the first four and six weeks of the season, respectively. The Pats drafted Brandon Meriweather as Harrison insurance, and Jarvis Green and Mike Wright are more than capable of filling in for Seymour. When Seymour in particular comes off the PUP list in Week 7, he will be fresh and ready for a rampage. Though the Pats schedule isn't a cakewalk, the team simply has no weakness this season. They are deep enough that future Hall of Famer Junior Seau doesn't even have to start at linebacker, and the Pats average age at every position is 30 or younger. Like Lisa Simpson, Belichick and his team have all the angles figured out, and are smart enough to know how to execute those angles properly when they must. They won't win every game, losing in Week 6 at Dallas, but they will be as close to perfection as one can get in this modern NFL world.
APPENDIX:
PLAYOFFS
AFC:
#3 Baltimore beats #6 Pittsburgh
#4 Cincinnati beats #3 San Diego
#1 New England beats #4 Cincinnati
#3 Baltimore beats #2 Indianapolis
#1 New England beats #3 Baltimore
NFC:
#3 New Orleans beats #6 Carolina
#5 Green Bay beats #4 San Francisco
#5 Green Bay beats #1 Philadelphia
#2 Chicago beats #3 New Orleans
#5 Green Bay beats #2 Chicago
SUPER BOWL XLII:
New England 27 - Green Bay 15
MVP: Tedy Bruschi (in his final game)
32. Atlanta Falcons (3-13) - Kirk Van Houten
Named for the most disgraced man in the town of Springfield. If you don't get the analogy, well then perhaps you'd like to crawl out of your cave and join the rest of civilization. Maybe someday Michael Vick will earn redemption in the same manner that Kirk did when he eventually got back together with Luann, but like Kirk after he got divorced, fired, had his demo tape laughed at and his car stolen, things don't seem like they could be worse for the Falcons. Already facing the daunting challenge of blending with a rookie coach, now they must do so with Joey Harrington at the helm and Warrick Dunn recovering from back surgery. Count me among those who don't think Harrington is as bad as his reputation, but he sure has some awful, awful luck. When you're pointing to a 35-year old Joe Horn as the bright spot of your offense, and you're counting on the always fragile John Abraham to spark your defense, things aren't looking good.
31. Miami Dolphins (3-13) - Frank Grimes
Ol' Grimey had it pretty bad in life, having to overcome obstacle after obstacle to make his way, and when he finally did, he ended up dead shortly thereafter. The Dolphins have put obstacle after obstacle in front of themselves this season. When Nick Saban quit it meant they had to hire a new coach once again, and one of their up and coming candidates - Jason Garrett - jumped ship to Dallas as quickly as humanly possible. They then drafted Ted Ginn instead of Brady Quinn, and compounded their mistake by trading for an over-the-hill QB in Trent Green. At 37 years old, Green has no chance of being part of the next great Dolphins team, assuring that the Fish would do no better than tread water this season rather than really rebuild. And if that weren't bad enough, the Dolphins will have the second hardest schedule in the NFL this year. Finally, with the Patriots coming to town in Week 7 this year, they won't be primed for a letdown in Miami like they were last year.
30. Kansas City Chiefs (4-12) - Scratchy the Cat
Every afternoon, Itchy kills Scratchy, and yet the next afternoon there's Scratchy, up to his old antics and not realizing that Itchy has it in for him yet again. By not attempting to upgrade his offense to complement Larry Johnson this offseason, Carl Peterson and Herman Edwards effectively sentenced the Chiefs offense to be Scratchy to opposing defenses' Itchy all season. Oh sure, Scratchy has a weapon up his sleeve in Larry Johnson, a nice rusty chainsaw to hack at the defense. But with no aerial attack to speak of, it will seem as though opposing defenses have a cannon, a nuclear bomb, a...you get the idea. The Chiefs will be over matched on offense, and no matter how much their average defense improves, it simply won't be enough to be competitive. Ty Law deserves better.
29. Detroit Lions (4-12) - Selma Bouvier Terwilliger Hutz McClure Stu Simpson
You would think the Herb Powell analogy would fit well here, but don't forget that Powell made himself into a multi-millionaire - twice. That kind of creativity hasn't been seen in Matt Millen's office, well, ever. No, Aunt Selma works best here. Aunt Selma is always falling for a new love, while Matt Millen is always falling for a new wide receiver. Like Selma however, Matt Millen and the Lions are destined to end up right back where they started - in the cellar. The Lions are really in a sorry state - of their four projected wins, I don't have them beating even one winning team. All the receivers in the world won't help this team. If you need to win a shootout in Madden 2007, this might be the team you take. But without a proven running attack or a QB who can consistently hit on the 50 yard pass (only 6% of Kitna's completed passes were deep balls last year), you might not even pick Detroit for that purpose.
28. Houston Texans (4-12) - Gil Gunderson
Old Gil never succeeds at anything he does. From car salesman to lawyer to real estate agent, Gil is repeatedly kicked to the curb. The Texans are building what could be a very good defense in time. But one could have said that two years ago when it looked as though the Texans could form a nucleus around Jason Babin and Travis Johnson (as Football Outsiders ably points out in their Texans preview). Perhaps it will be different for them in the future, or perhaps they'll be like Old Gil - always trying to get one big score so their wives will stop cheating on them (aka rooting for the Cowboys).
27. Cleveland Browns (5-11) - Troy McClure (RIP)
He made us laugh didn't he? Once on top of the world, Troy was booted out of the spotlight due to his paraphilia. The Browns went through a similar downturn in fortunes, though theirs was caused by a greedy owner who moved his team out of town rather than paraphilia. Right now, the Browns are in the stage where they're just starting to date Selma. Pretty soon, MacArthur Parker will be calling the Browns, saying things like "that Brady Quinn has made you sexy again!" and "that Kellen Winslow is just what we need to shake up Hollywood!" Hopefully for Browns fans, the story will end differently than it did for Troy, and frankly, I think it will. Just not this season. In a different division, the Browns would probably be a seven, or even eight win team. In this division, they will be fighting for their lives. But in 2008, the tune will be "get your paws off me you dirty ape!"
26. St. Louis (5-11) - Artie Ziff
All flash, no finish. Artie was the Internet billionaire who lost it all when the bubble burst. From partying with Scottie Pippen and Jeneane Garofalo to watching the walls come down crashing around him, Ziff had too many highs, too many lows and simply not enough of the creamy middles that Homer likes so much. Stephen Jackson might be the best running back in football along with LDT, and Marc Bulger might be an elite quarterback with a number of weapons at his disposal. But when you're going full speed ahead, often you don't remember to watch your back. The Rams have no defense, and haven't since Lovie Smith graduated to Chicago in 2004. When your best player on defense is an alcoholic just one empty liquor bottle away from his next DUI, it becomes increasingly clear that all the flash in the world isn't going to amount to much at the end of the season.
25. New York Giants (5-11) - Chief Clancy Wiggum
Victories are rare in Chief Wiggum's world. Like Flanders once chastised, the last thing Wiggum got to the bottom of was a case of Malamars. Even when he does beat Rex Banner to the punch, he winds up putting the screws to Homer. When he catches Kirk Van Houten for kidnapping, it's only because he hears the crackling sound of Chinsy Pop, the world's cheapest popcorn, which he knows only because he too eats the shameful stuff. When the Giants find competent pieces for their attack, it often comes with a cost. Eli Manning cost them a bounty in draft picks and players. Plaxico Burress can stretch the field, but he doesn't play hard every down. Michael Strahan's career numbers match up with Lawrence Taylor's, but he's such a distraction and caricature that nobody notices. Owners of the third hardest schedule in 2007, saddled with what is almost certainly a lame duck coach and with ex-players like Tiki Barber still haunting the team with his talking-head potshots, it's going to be a long year for the New York football Giants.
24. Arizona Cardinals (6-10) - Edna Krabappel
"Bart, this is your teacher? I have to start going to Parent's Night." Oh, Mrs. Krabappel may be very sexy, but she comes with the baggage that any jilted lover does. Once again, the Cardinals are the toast of the fantasy football universe, with Larry Fitgerald and Anquan Boldin having established themselves among the fantasy elite, with Matt Leinart not far behind and the Edge still a reliable target. But like St. Louis, where' the defense? With yet another new coaching staff in a seemingly endless carousel, the Cards were facing an uphill battle already in 2007. But when they lost their best pass rusher, Chike Okeafor, for the season, the task is now almost insurmountable. However, with Levi Brown at left tackle, and Ken Whisenhunt hopefully doing for Leinart what he did for Ben Roethlisberger, 2008 finally could be the year that Arizona puts everything together.
23. Oakland Raiders (6-10) - Grandpa Simpson
He's annoying, he's a pain in your butt, but every once in awhile he hatches a worthwhile scheme (like the Simpson & Son aphrodisiac). The Raiders have the opposite problem that the Cards and Rams do, they have little offense to go with a killer defense. Generally, you'd rather have the killer defense, so that's good news for residents of the Black Hole. And with a little luck, perhaps Duante Culpepper to Ronald Curry can become a dynamite combo, and either LaMont Jordan, Dominic Rhodes or Michael Bush can be the answer at running back. Until then, the biggest story in Raidersville will likely be whether or not JaMarcus Russell is going to sign with the silver and black. Until then, they'll just be the crazy old man rambling on the sideline, hoisting onions on their belt.
22. Buffalo Bills (6-10) - Hans Moleman
Can't do much right, no one seems to know he's alive. When he gets water splashed on him by others and they laugh, he can't even stomach the backbone to get upset, lamenting simply "I'm glad to have shared in their fun." Indeed the Bills have shared in the fun of others this past decade, watching as everyone (except for the Texans) in the AFC has made the playoffs but them. Generally, when a team loses four of its best players in one offseason - as the Bills did this offseason when they lost Nate Clements, Willis McGahee, London Fletcher-Baker and Takeo Spikes - it would be a major story about which analysts would churn out column inch after column inch. When it happens in Buffalo, everyone shrugs their collective shoulders. Where have you gone, Jim Kelly?
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) - Principal Seymour Skinner
Like the Bucs and Jon Gruden, Principal Skinner always thinks that salvation is just a quick fix away. Whether it's striking oil under the school, reaping the proceeds from the lottery or tricking Lisa Simpson into spilling the beans about her cheating to the "fake" comptroller, Seymour is always up to something. The same goes for the Bucs. Rather than admitting that they are in a downturn, and that they should give Chris Simms a year to get things sorted out and then really build around him in 2008, Gruden instead imported free agent graybeards like Jeff Garcia and Joey Galloway. They will bring the Bucs back to respectability, but they will be hard pressed to help the Bucs regain their now forgotten championship swagger.
20. Dallas Cowboys (7-9) - "Diamond" Joe Quimby
I suppose Rich Texan would work too, but that just seems way too easy. Always in the news, always full of themselves and never aware that they're headed for a fall, Quimby and the Cowboys have much in common. They don't realize that there's ANOTHER election this November or that their schedule is the fifth hardest in the league. All they see when they look in the mirror are those pearly whites, bulging muscles and the arrogance that comes with being on top of the world for so long. "Diamond" Joe hasn't received his comeuppance yet, but the Cowboys certainly will this year. Get ready for tons of "what if the Cowboys had drafted Brady Quinn?" stories come January.
19. Minnesota Vikings (7-9) - Maggie Simpson
Minnesota is the team you never hear about, but you know that they're there. Who's playing quarterback? Is it still Randall Cunningham? Or Brad Johnson? Or Randall Johnson? No, this year it's Tavaris Jackson, although at 44, Cunningham might do just as well as Jackson will this season. Though they are backed by a very strong run defense and a burgeoning rushing attack, the Purple People Eaters will nevertheless miss Mike Tomlin, who has moved on to coach the Pittsburgh Steelers, and an incredibly unreliable receiving corps will make Jackson look worse than he is. And he won't be very good at all. All told, it will likely be another faceless season that fades into the background. Kind of like Maggie.
18. Washington Redskins (8-8) - Marge Simpson
Marge is loyal, and above moral reproach. When she was wrongfully locked away in prison for one month, the town realized how much they missed her and altered a statue of Jimmy Carter into her likeness. No one erected a statue (that I know of) to commemorate Joe Gibbs when he retired to focus full-time on NASCAR, but he was certainly missed in a Redskins front office run amok. Since returning, he has moved with the same pace as Marge - slow and steady. Jason Campbell was probably ready to start full-time last year at QB, but Gibbs waited the majority of the season before plugging him in. And while the Skins made the playoffs in '05, changes were needed, but came slowly. They still aren't coming fast - the Skins have plenty of star power but little depth. After a solid '07 campaign with Campbell at the helm, they will hopefully find that depth, and build towards even better things in 2008.
17. New York Jets (8-8) - Martin Prince, Jr.
A fat, sniveling know-it-all who has the brains to rule the world, but certainly not the charisma. Wait, am I talking about Eric Mangini or Martin Prince, Jr.? Well, both really. The New York media machine had dubbed him the "Mangenius", and hoisted celebrity status on the former Pats assistant, but the media is still in its honeymoon period. Like all honeymoons in New York, it will be short lived. The Jets made improvements heading into 2007, but they also played worse than their record indicated in 2006. Football Outsiders' DVOA statistic is the most innovative stat that translates what we see on the field into meaningful numbers. Overall, a team wants a positive DVOA for a season or a game, expressed in a percentage. Last season, the Jets won two games when they had a negative DVOA, and won two others with a DVOA of less than 7%. Conversely though, they deserved to lose the games that they lost - there were no positive DVOA losses for the Jets in 2006. Knock 2-3 wins off their 2006 total and they end up with 7 or 8 wins, rather than 10. This season, the Jets will improve, but because they got some lucky bounces last year, it will APPEAR that they are doing worse. 2008 is the year they will put it all together. Or like Martin's soap box racer, it could just be the year when their world goes careening out of control, because their know-it-all coach can't turn his book smarts into production on the field.
16. Tennessee Titans (8-8) - Krusty the Clown
Sometimes he has his act together, sometimes he doesn't. But he's always there. Krusty the Clown has been smart enough to license his name and make a large fortune and later to fake his own death, but in between he was dumb enough to bet on the Washington Generals and squander everything. Jeff Fisher has been smart enough to hitch his wagon to Steve McNair and Eddie George, but dumb enough to hitch it to Pacman Jones and Joe Nedney. Sometimes, like with the "Music City Miracle", he's been very fortunate, but other times, like with "The Tackle", he's been very unfortuntate. So which category will the Vince Young era fit in? That remains to be seen, but my bet would be in the "fortunate" category. Though Pacman's suspension and a host of unproven players surrounding Young on offense will prevent the Titans from fully making the leap into contention this year, the future is still bright in the Music City. Like it reads on the state's welcome sign, Tennessee'n is Tennebelievin'.
15. Seattle Seahawks (9-7) - Cookie Kwan
Cookie Kwan, like the Seahawks, is number one on the west side. But Cookie never ventured out of her neighborhood, and the Seahawks rarely do either. The Seahawks have made the playoffs four straight years, and won the NFC West three straight years, but the 'Hawks are just 3-5 in the playoffs, and in only one season did they advance to the conference championship. This is the year when the 'Hawks will not be number one on the west side. Shaun Alexander is aging rapidly, as is the club's offensive line. Conventional wisdom holds that if Seattle can stay healthy this season, they have the talent to walk away with the division. But real wisdom holds that a successful NFL team is not one that is loaded from players 1-15, but rather one that is balanced from 1-53. The Seahawks team composition leans more towards the former, and this is the year that that takes a bite out of their playoff chances.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) - Moe Szyslak
Every year there is a team that is bound for glory, if they can just stay out of their own way. Football Outsiders projections tabbed the Jags as having the second best projection in football this season behind only the Patriots. In addition to a rock-solid defense and evolving running attack, one of the strong points for the Jags was their quarterback Byron Leftwich. At the peak age of 27 when quarterbacks historically have their best season and usually earn a trip to Hawaii, Leftwich is primed for a breakout year. Unfortunately for Jacksonville fans, he will do it with another team. Earlier this week, Jags coach Jack Del Rio named backup and lesser quarterback David Garrard as his starter. Such a poor decision is akin to the type of chicanery Moe is known for. Whether it's opening Uncle Moe's Family Feedbag, killing Alfalfa, not selling the Flaming Moe's recipe, stealing Shamu, buying only one inch of bulletproof glass, or giving away soap opera plot lines, you can always count on Moe to make the wrong decision. Same as Jack "Chopping Wood" Del Rio.
13. Denver Broncos (9-7) - Comic Book Guy, aka Jeff Albertson
The Comic Book Guy thinks he knows everything. He is all alone in the world in the power of his knowledge, but he also runs a very successful business. Mike Shanahan thinks he knows everything, even calling himself "The Ultimate Leader" in his own biography. Like the Comic Book Guy, he also runs a very successful business, as the Broncos will likely sell out their games as long as Shanahan is at the helm. But the Comic Book Guy eventually has a heart attack. It doesn't kill him, but it certainly forces him to re-evaluate things. The Broncos were forced to reevaluate things after they missed the playoffs last year, something that gave their fans a collective heart attack. Gone is much of the old guard who led the Broncos to the AFC Championship just two years ago - Al Wilson, Jake Plummer, Tatum Bell, etc. Newcomers like Travis "the babymaker" Henry, Jay Cutler and a slew of new defensive lineman are supposed to lead the Broncos back to the promised land. But Cutler faces an uphill battle. Quick - name a successful Vanderbilt University alumni in the NFL. On offense, the list is nonexistent. Shanahan is hoping that Cutler is the best. quarterback. ever, but history dictates that he will fall short of that mark, and he will take the Broncos playoff hopes with him.
12. Carolina Panthers (9-7, NFC Wild Card) - Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
Apu is an ingrained American immigrant - the Panthers are an ingrained NFL immigrant. Apu has a very strong work ethic, as do the Panthers, an ethic instilled in them by their head coach John Fox. Apu doesn't have all the angles figured out in trying to take care of his eight children, and Panthers QB Jake Delhomme doesn't have all the angles figured out in trying to take care of his ten teammates on offense. With too little impact from the running game, the Panthers were too often forced into third and long last season. Eventually, this ruined their season; their hopes crumbled when a four game losing second half losing streak allowed New Orleans to leapfrog over them and land the Panthers on the outside looking in. This year, the Panthers will improve ever so slightly, squeaking back into the playoffs as a Wild Card team. Unfortunately, they won't get past that, and decisions will need to be made in the offseason as to what direction the Panthers will take in 2008 and beyond.
11. San Francisco 49ers (10-6, NFC West Champs) - Squeaky Voiced Teen
The 49ers are still the young punks at the dance, good enough to know they belong, but not good enough to know what to do once they get inside. We learned at the end of the Simpsons Movie that the Squeaky Voiced Teen actually has a film school degree. He is going places - eventually. But right now, he's only managed to get his start in the industry. The Niners are the same. The rapidly improving nucleus of Frank Gore, Alex Smith and Vernon Davis, combined with savvy veteran additions like Nate Clements and Darrell Jackson have San Fran's star on the rise once again. In 2008, they will add even more talent to the mix, and with Patrick Willis and Jason Hill rounding into shape alongside the three offensive linchpins, the Niners will be a Super Bowl contender once again.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, AFC Wild Card) - Dr. Julius Hibbert
His diagnoses are always a buzzkill, but he laughs at them anyways. It's the kind of sense of humor that only a Steelers fan can appreciate, delighting in the misery of others. The Steelers under Bill Cowher certainly heaped a lot of misery and misfortune on their opponents, and with bright young defensive mind Mike Tomlin taking the reins, that trend is sure to continue. In a loaded AFC North they won't get all the way to the cream of the crop in 2007, and jettisoning veterans like Joey Porter will let the team find a new identity under Tomlin and Roethlisberger. Come 2008, the Steel City will be waiving their terrible towels for a Super Bowl contender once again. This year, they will have to be content to stay on the fringes of playoff competition.
9. New Orleans Saints (10-6, NFC South Champs) - Bart Simpson
The fun-loving scamp that is always going a mile a minute most closely fits to the Saints personality. Behind a high powered offense, the Saints are fun to watch, and they have inspired a city, much like Bart inspired Springfield with "the power." And though the Saints defense betrayed them in the playoffs last season, it was much better during the second half than it was during the first half. With the team's biggest defensive weakness - cornerback - receiving a big boost in the free agent signing of Jason David, the only question for the Saints D is can it stay healthy throughout 2007. If it can, the Saints could bombard the competition like Bart did with so many water balloons. If not, the Saints will end up battered and bruised, like when Bart dislocated his elbow and knocked himself unconscious. Either way, it promises to be an another exciting season down in the Crescent City.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6, AFC Wild Card) - C. Montgomery Burns
Like Mr. Burns, the Bengals seem to have no moral compass whatsoever, doing whatever necessary, but more importantly hiring whomever necessary to get the job done. Of course, that kind of thinking doesn't always pay off, as the Bengals and their record number of entries in the police blotter demonstrated last year. Also like Mr. Burns, the Bengals have been incredibly stubborn. Though their defense had more holes than a chain link fence last year, Cincinnati did little other than draft cornerback Leon Hall. Until they see the error of their ways, they will remain a domineering team that can't put the final pieces of world domination together.
7. Green Bay Packers (11-5, NFC Wild Card, NFC CHAMPIONS) - Homer Simpson
Homer Simpson might be the very definition of the phrase "Wild Card." No city better fits Homer than Green Bay, a city where a man can eat all the bratwurst and drink all the beer he possibly can. Bret Favre has a lot of Homer in him as well, the old-fashioned gunslinger who isn't concerned with small things like stats. Bret just wants to do the Lambeau Leap, something you know Homer would enjoy, as long as he had Principal Skinner's back to launch himself from (like when he dunked during a pickup basketball game). Like Homer, the Packers are about to go on a wild ride through the NFC, falling just short of Chicago for the NFC North crown, but getting their revenge in the NFC Championship game. And when the Packers ultimately fall short in the Super Bowl like Homer did in his title bout with Drederick Tatum, they won't be devastated or upset. They'll simply be happy that their gunslinger got one final ride into the sunset, and that he made it out alive to tell the story. And then they'll get loaded!
6. Chicago Bears (11-5, NFC North Champs) - Lou
Lovie Smith is a very intelligent man, a great leader who has transformed the Bears into a championship club seemingly overnight. But like police sergeant Lou, his fortunes are ever-tied to his less competent partner. A head coach can guide his team, but the most important player on the field is the quarterback. In Rex Grossman, as in Chief Wiggum, Lovie and Lou have hitched their wagons to someone who is probably going to come up short in the end. The Bears will still have a dominant defense this year, and if Cedric Benson can stay upright for a whole season, he and the "other" Adrian Peterson will combine to give Chicago an excellent running game. However, the season still rests on the impulsive right arm of "Sexy Rexy". While he will likely be better in 2007, simply because he couldn't be any worse than he was down the stretch in 2006, when it comes down to it, who do you trust - Grossman or Favre? For that simple reason, the Packers will end up besting the Bears and advancing to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLII. With Lance Briggs seemingly out the door at the end of the season, it could be the last chance that Brian Urlacher and the Bears D has to fulfill their dreams.
5. San Diego Chargers (11-5, AFC West Champs) - Hank Scorpio
Blazing a trail of glory, and having enough money to own the Denver Broncos, Hank Scorpio was a once-in-a-series character, though he was sort of reincarnated for The Movie. His schemes are brilliant on paper, but lacking in execution. The Chargers, behind the incredible wattage of stars like LDT, Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, Marcus McNeill, Jamal Williams and steroid users Shawne Merriman and Luis Castillo, are formidable paper tigers. With Norv Turner now at the helm however, the Bolts will continue to look much better on paper than they do on the field. Turner is infamous for his lack of motivational skills as a coach, as evidenced by listless squads with Washington and Oakland. Rivers will make strides, and Vincent Jackson and Eric Parker should emerge as a very good WR combo to team with Gates and LDT, but in the end the Chargers will not be able to harness the little things that champions do.
4. Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North Champs) - Nelson Muntz
The big bully. Nelson, along with Jimbo, Dolph and Kearney, are the bad boys of Springfield Elementary. Either "Fat Tony" or "Snake" would fit for the Ravens as well, but Nelson's taunting "Ha Ha's" and "stop hitting yourself" cut to the core of what the Baltimore Ravens truly are - bullies that like doling out the punishment. They make sure you know you are being punished, and revel in it almost to the point where they take their eyes off the prize. This season, the Ravens have not taken their eyes off the prize. They traded for Willis McGahee and believe they have replacements for linebacker Adalius Thomas and tackle Tony Pashos. With Mark Clayton emerging alongside Derrick Mason and Todd Heap, the Ravens actually have formidable aerial weapons now as well. Combined with McGahee, McNair and a dominant line, the Ravens are primed for another run to glory. It will be a run that will take them to the AFC Championship, but their blue collar style will ultimately fall short in the end.
3. Indianapolis Colts (12-4, AFC South Champs) - Ned Flanders
He's so good that you hate him. Stupid Flanders. Stupid Peyton. Oh sure, you laugh at each one on Sundays, Flanders in primetime, and Manning seemingly every commercial break, but they are both formidable foes that kill you with kindness and kill you with efficiency. Just like Flanders is always flanked by his robotic like sons Rodd & Todd, so too is Manning flanked by his robotic receivers Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Unfortunately the Colts of last year are the Colts of this year. Last year, they beat the Ravens in the divisional round of the playoffs by a mere nine points. Their powerhouse offense only outgained Baltimore's by 17 yards. This season, with Baltimore closing the gap offensively and Indy not closing the gap defensively, Indy's time is up. Fortunately for them, they won the Super Bowl last year and are in the Bill Simmons' patented five year grace period.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-4, NFC East Champs) - Rev. Timothy Lovejoy
Rev. Lovejoy is a pillar of the community, or so it would seem. Beneath his seemingly sincere love and care for the citizens of Springfield's as its spiritual purveyor, Lovejoy is actually a bad apple. He instructs his dog to poop on Flanders' lawn, gives apathetic advice to callers and indulges his wife Helen, who is the town gossiphound. The Eagles carry a similar, empty veneer. They have been perennial contenders in the '00's, but behind each success story there is drama boiling underneath the surface. Whether it's T.O., the drafting of Kevin Kolb, Andy Reid's delinquent sons, there's always drama in Philly. Fortunately, like the show, the forecast is always sunny in Philadelphia as well. The Eagles still have the league's most talented squad, and assuming QB Donovan McNabb can keep on his feet for 17 weeks, Philly will be the Super Bowl favorite come January. Running up against the buzzsaw that will be the Green Bay Packers will certainly be no cause for alarm, but that doesn't mean the alarm won't be sounded anyways. After all, it's Philly. Somewhere, Rev. Lovejoy is nodding his head knowingly.
1. New England Patriots (15-1, AFC East Champs, AFC CHAMPIONS, SUPER BOWL XLII CHAMPIONS) - Lisa Simpson
You really want to hate her. You do. You know you do. Sure, she's eight years old, but she just knows everything! How is that possible? But she always has an answer, and it's always the right answer. Not only that, but she makes it count when the chips are down. Win a spelling bee? Check. Climb the "Eliminator"? Check. Become a ruthless hockey goalie? Check. Lisa's conquests are too long to name here, as are those of Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Patriots. Loaded up for another title run in 2007, the Patriots won't even feel the brunt of losing Rodney Harrison and Richard Seymour for the first four and six weeks of the season, respectively. The Pats drafted Brandon Meriweather as Harrison insurance, and Jarvis Green and Mike Wright are more than capable of filling in for Seymour. When Seymour in particular comes off the PUP list in Week 7, he will be fresh and ready for a rampage. Though the Pats schedule isn't a cakewalk, the team simply has no weakness this season. They are deep enough that future Hall of Famer Junior Seau doesn't even have to start at linebacker, and the Pats average age at every position is 30 or younger. Like Lisa Simpson, Belichick and his team have all the angles figured out, and are smart enough to know how to execute those angles properly when they must. They won't win every game, losing in Week 6 at Dallas, but they will be as close to perfection as one can get in this modern NFL world.
APPENDIX:
PLAYOFFS
AFC:
#3 Baltimore beats #6 Pittsburgh
#4 Cincinnati beats #3 San Diego
#1 New England beats #4 Cincinnati
#3 Baltimore beats #2 Indianapolis
#1 New England beats #3 Baltimore
NFC:
#3 New Orleans beats #6 Carolina
#5 Green Bay beats #4 San Francisco
#5 Green Bay beats #1 Philadelphia
#2 Chicago beats #3 New Orleans
#5 Green Bay beats #2 Chicago
SUPER BOWL XLII:
New England 27 - Green Bay 15
MVP: Tedy Bruschi (in his final game)
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