2012 MLB Season Predictions

Earlier today (or yesterday by the time this posts), the FanGraphs' staff predictions hit the interwebs. Since those were just the basics, here are the rest.

AL East	W	L	PCT
NYY	94	68	0.580
TB	92	70	0.568
BOS	88	74	0.543
TOR	88	74	0.543
BAL	60	102	0.370

About the Red Sox -- I really see this team as having a depth problem, particularly on the pitching staff. We are already seeing this with the Andrew Bailey injury, but even before that it was going to be an issue. Clay Buchholz had a bad back injury last year, and we can't know if he'll make it through a full season healthy. And that's not counting the untested Daniel Bard and Felix Doubront starting. I wasn't in the minority in leaving them out of the playoffs -- 12 of the 20 FG people left them out.

AL Cent	W	L	PCT
DET	91	71	0.562
CLE	83	79	0.512
KC	78	84	0.481
MIN	70	92	0.432
CHW	65	97	0.401

This division leaves a lot to be desired. If Kansas City can land the right pitcher for the front of their rotation, next year could be the year they take over the division for a long time. But this season, it will still be Detroit atop the division. But even with Fielder, they will be a bad champion, with a horrible defensive infield.

AL West	W	L	PCT
TEX	96	66	0.593
LAA	92	70	0.568
SEA	75	87	0.463
OAK	68	94	0.420

I think this will finally be Texas' year, although I may have said the same thing last year. Anaheim claims one of the two Wild Cards along with Tampa.

Tampa will win the play-in game, and then fall to the Yankees in the Division Series. In the other Division Series, Texas will beat Detroit. That will set up a Texas-Yankees ALCS for the second time in three seasons, with the same result. I was one of six FG folks to put them in the World Series.

NL East	W	L	PCT
WAS	90	72	0.556
ATL	87	75	0.537
MIA	86	76	0.531
PHI	85	77	0.525
NYM	68	94	0.420

Here is my sleeper. I like the Nats a great deal this season. They have an improved rotation, a deep bullpen, and while Mike Morse should regress some, Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman should bounce back nicely. This division is chock full of talent though, so it won't be easy, and really any team from one-through-four could come out on top. But I think this is the year that the Phillies fall apart. And while Miami should be better, I think Atlanta has enough starting pitching depth to put them over the top and into one of the Wild Card spots. I was one of just two FG people (Zach Sanders being the other) to pick Washington for the division, and one of just eight to pick Atlanta to reach the postseason at all.

NL Cent	W	L	PCT
STL	89	73	0.549
CIN	87	75	0.537
MIL	83	79	0.512
CHC	75	89	0.451
PIT	71	91	0.438
HOU	56	106	0.346

As we saw tonight, the Cardinals are still going to be a formidable team. I detailed it on Monday in my first ESPN Insider piece (check back for one every Monday), but they are very deep in all three phases -- lineup, rotation and bullpen. I would love to pick the Reds to win the division, but I just don't trust Dusty Baker. I don't see why Bronson Arroyo is still on that squad. I could see the Cubs at better than 75 wins, but at this time, I don't see where their extra wins would come from, so I'll stand on 75. I was one of just six FG people to take St. Louis to win the Central, and one of five to slot Cincy for a Wild Card berth.

NL West	W	L	PCT
ARI	93	69	0.574
LAD	85	77	0.525
SF	83	79	0.512
COL	78	84	0.481
SD	74	88	0.457

Arizona has a wealth of pitching, and could be even better this year. What's more, they're a fun team to watch, which is a plus. As for the Giants, I just don't believe in their offense, at all. The Dodgers' offense won't be much better, but I expect the Kemp-Ethier duo to be better than Sandoval-Posey. And I also think the Dodgers will play better defense.

Atlanta takes the Wild Card play-in, loses to Arizona in the DS, and St. Louis takes down Washington in the other DS. In the LCS, Arizona bests St. Louis, setting up an incredibly entertaining D-backs-Rangers World Series.

I think that my favorite part of doing these picks was realizing that there really is no obvious favorite, and that was borne out in the FanGraphs' picks.

Happy Opening Day everyone. It's going to be a great year.

Handicapping the Rockies Roster, Part 1

With the non-tenders last night, and the trade for Jose Lopez, here is my guesstimate for what the Rockies roster would look like if the season started today:

1 SP Ubaldo Jimenez
2 SP Jorge De La Rosa
3 SP Jhoulys Chacin
4 SP Felipe Paulino
5 SP Aaron Cook
6 RP Matt Belisle
7 RP Rafael Betancourt
8 RP Matt Daley
9 RP Franklin Morales
10 RP Matt Reynolds
11 RP Esmil Rogers
12 RP Huston Street
13 C Chris Iannetta
14 1B Todd Helton
15 2B Jonathan Herrera
16 3B Ian Stewart
17 SS Troy Tulowitzki
18 LF Seth Smith
19 CF Dexter Fowler
20 RF Carlos Gonzalez
21 Bench Michael McKenry
22 Bench Jose Lopez
23 Bench Chris Nelson
24 Bench Ryan Spilborghs
25 Bench Eric Young, Jr.

A couple of notes. This is strictly based on who is currently on the 40-man roster, with the exception of Jorge De La Rosa. While De La Rosa hasn't officially resigned, I slotted him in there anyway, as it seems that his contract has reached the formality stages.

You'll notice that Jason Hammel is not listed. My early prediction is that he gets moved this winter, or loses his spot in Spring Training. He could end up in the bullpen again, but I think it's starter or bust for him, and he may net a prospect or two in a trade in late March, similar to how the Rockies acquired him in the first place.

At second, I have Herrera listed, but it really could/should be an open competition. I don't believe that the trade for Jose Lopez automatically means that he will start at second, and I think Chris Nelson deserves a look as well. Eric Young, Jr. did very little to show that he deserved a starting nod, so for me there would be a gap between him and the other three.

I think that at this point the roster is mainly set. With all of the non-tendered relievers, I could see a reliever being added to challenge Daley and Rogers, and I hope to see another starter added to challenge Cook, Hammel and Paulino. I think it is likely that a back-up catcher could factor in, though I would stick with McKenry and spread the extra money around elsewhere. Finally, another bench bat could be added, something that would jeopardize the roster spot of Nelson or Young. I think with the trade of Barmes and the acquisition of Lopez, you have to consider Herrera safe for now, as the Rockies don't have another legit backup shortstop. The last time Lopez played shortstop was 2004, so I don't think he is a viable option there.

I'll look to update this more with each passing transaction. Also, look for a similar series of posts on the Red Sox roster soon.

Checking In

Today was a good day. Got to help out at the Rockies charity Home Run 5K Run/Walk this morning, which was a lot of fun. Then I got to come home and see both the Sox and Rox win. Complete game for Clement. Oh, he's so unpredictable? Why did we spend so much for him? Hah. Great game.

The Rockies weren't as clean, but I'll take a win from them any way I can get them. In the season ticket department, we predict how many games the team will win each month, with the winner getting a statue called "The Predictor" next to their desk the next month. Needless to say, my optimistic prediction of 15 wins in May is going to fall a little short. The Rox are up to 7 wins this month, which is already 1 win better than last month. The Rox were 6-15 in April, and are 7-13 in May thus far, so baby steps are being made. But for me to get the statue, the Rox will have to go 8-1 for the rest of the month. I'm not holding my breath. The Brewers walked into Minnesota this weekend and are about ready to win the 2nd of 3 games there. The Cubs are good enough to split a four game series, and the Cardinals are up to their old tricks. But tomorrow is a new day.

Stay Positive

Rockies broadcaster George Frazier summed it up succinctly when he said after today's game:

"The Rockies should be 3-1, not 1-3."

So why are they 1-3? Simple. Scott Dohmann can't keep his fastball down in the zone. Little 'ol Michael Tucker tore the Rockies heart out today, jacking a first-pitch fastball into McCovey Cove, spoiling Jamey Wright's masterful (except for 5 walks) start.

Last night was even worse. The Rockies battled back from a six run deficit, only to have Dohmann blow it by giving up the game-winner to Marquis Grissom. To be fair, Dohmann did not create that problem. But he did create today's problem.

Brought in with one man on and two men out, Dohmann created a bases-loaded situation. He was squeezed a bit by the ump, but that is not an excuse. It should have been lock-down time. Dohmann simply didn't get it done.

The Rockies, to their credit, are not screwing around. Allan Simpson, while he has good stuff, was a disaster the other night. They traded him for Jose Acevedo, who at the very least should be able to chew up more innings in the middle of the game. This, to me was the biggest problem with the makeup of the Rockies bullpen before, lots of short relievers, no long relievers. With the team apparently turning to BK to be the closer, that eliminated him as a long set up guy as well. Acevedo should be able to fill that need. I think this probably means they put Bobby Seay in the Springs, but we'll see. That is what I would do. I think Seay is nice, certainly more useful than Reggie Taylor, but if Brian Fuentes is not the closer, there is little need for 3 lefty short relievers in the pen. Having Acevedo creates a much better mix.

In any event, Dohmann needs to do a better job keeping the ball down in the zone. He almost cost the Rox Opening Day, and he helped cost us both games vs. the Giants.