2008 AL All-Star Predictions

Using the same format as in the National League, let's get right into the American League. The one difference from the NL is that for the AL, fans vote for the designated hitter as well. The likely voted in AL starters are:

C: Joe Mauer, MIN
1B: Kevin Youkilis, BOS
2B: Dustin Pedroia, BOS
3B: Alex Rodriguez, NYY
SS: Derek Jeter, NYY
OF: Manny Ramirez, BOS
OF: Josh Hamilton, TEX
OF: Ichiro Suziki, SEA
DH: David Ortiz, BOS

The main question for the AL and its manager, Terry Francona is this: how many Red Sox is too many? David Ortiz does the team a favor in a way, since he is injured, he will technically count on their team total but won't play, opening up another slot. But with Jonathan Papelbon seemingly a lock, and with a dearth of starters having quality seasons, Josh Beckett figures to go in as well. This leaves Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew, guys who are arguably more deserving than Youkilis and Pedroia, as odd men out due to the vagaries of positional strength in the AL.

Next, let's take a look at the "one-pers." For Tampa, we have Evan Longoria, as well as George Sherrill on Baltimore, Roy Halladay on Toronto, Magglio Ordonez on Detroit, Joakim Soria on Kansas City, Justin Duchscherer on Oakland and Ichiro. Here, Longoria is crucial. Despite having the AL's best record, Tampa does not have a clear cut All-Star. They have a lot of very good players, with Longoria and Carl Crawford standing out the most - though Crawford more so because he was on the squad last year.

Rounding out the roster, we have:

P: Sherrill, Halladay, Soria, Duchscherer, Beckett, Papelbon, Cliff Lee (CLE), C.C. Sabathia (CLE), John Lackey (LAA), Mike Mussina (NYY), Joe Saunders (LAA), Francisco Rodriguez (LAA), Mariano Rivera (NYY)
C: Mauer, A.J. Pierzynski (CHW)
1B: Youkilis, Justin Morneau (MIN)
2B: Pedroia, Ian Kinsler (TEX)
3B: Rodriguez, Longoria
SS: Jeter, Michael Young (TEX)
OF: Ramirez, Hamilton, Suziki, Ordonez, Vladimir Guerrero (LAA), Jermaine Dye (CHW), Grady Sizemore (CLE)
DH: Ortiz (injured), Milton Bradley (TEX)

So there is your 31 plus one, with Bradley being named the replacement for Ortiz. Given his nature, I won't be surprised if someone besides Bradley is named, someone like a Bob Abreu or Jose Guillen, but Bradley is the most deserving. At this point, it seems pretty clear that Cliff Lee will be the starting pitcher.

On the snub list, we have: Joe Nathan (MIN), Ervin Santana (LAA), John Danks (CHW), Gavin Floyd (CHW), Javier Vazquez (CHW), James Shields (TB), Scott Kazmir (TB), Zack Greinke (KC), Rich Harden (OAK), Jonathan Lester (BOS), Felix Hernandez (SEA), Placido Polanco (DET), Brian Roberts (BAL), Mike Lowell (BOS), J.D. Drew (BOS), David Dejesus (KC), Jose Guillen (KC), Bob Abreu (NYY), Carlos Quentin (CHW) and Carl Crawford (TB).

Obviously, a couple of players that are on the disabled list right now - J.J. Putz (SEA) and Chien Ming-Wang (NYY) would be good candidates if not hurt, but they are. I think Santana and Nathan would be a strong candidates to go and their snubs likely the worst, but Santana is a victim of his own teammates and Nathan a victim of Soria and Sherrill's one-per-dness. However, Nathan is one of my candidates in the Final Vote:

Joe Nathan (P, MIN)
Scott Kazmir (P, TB)
David Dejesus (OF, KC)
Carlos Quentin (OF, CHW)
Carl Crawford (OF, TB)

I would think either Crawford or Quentin would take this home, but since Chicago is the biggest market on this list, I will go with Quentin. With him in the fold, this gives us the following breakout by team:

6: BOS
4: LAA, NYY, TEX
3: CHW, CLE
2: MIN
1: BAL, DET, KC, OAK, SEA, TB, TOR

The AL is much more top-heavy than the NL, with six teams having three or more players in my estimation, compared with only three such teams in the NL. There are also a lot of "meh" selections, as the second best player for most of the AL players are not real great candidates. This will once again be a case of the AL's top talent battling the NL's depth, and with the game in Yankee Stadium expect the Yankees like A-Rod and Jeter to play significant innings. Also, I won't be surprised to see tweeners like Abreu or Joba Chamberlain get selected, even though Chamberlain's different roles sort of preclude him from selection in my opinion.

I will check back in this week to see what I got right and what I got wrong. I'm hoping for better than 60% accuracy!

2008 NL All-Star Predictions

Bored on a Saturday while watching Sox vs. Yankees, so I thought I would try and take a stab at predicting the All-Star selections. Ground rules: there will be 32 players selected per side, plus injury replacements. Nine players are voted on by fans - eight starters and one final vote. The other 23 are a combination of player votes and managerial selections. Also, keep in mind that each team must have at least one All-Star. We'll start with the NL, with the AL to follow.

First, the players who will likely be voted in:
C: Geovany Soto, CHC
1B: Lance Berkman, HOU
2B: Chase Utley, PHI
3B: Chipper Jones, ATL
SS: Hanley Ramirez, FLA
OF: Alfonso Soriano, CHC
OF: Kusoke Fukudome, CHC
OF: Ken Griffey, Jr., CIN

Soriano is currently on the DL and will likely be replaced. After looking at those players, it is instructive to fill out the "one-per" rule, since that player can throw off the balance for truly deserving All-Stars. Under this list, we have Jon Rauch on Washington, Albert Pujols on St. Louis, Nate McLouth on Pittsburgh, Takashi Saito on LA, Tim Lincecum on San Fran and Adrian Gonzalez on San Diego. McLouth and Gonzalez are particularly important in this process. While both are deserving All-Stars this season, they don't have the profile that would likely get them voted in otherwise, and Ryan Howard, Derrek Lee and Mark Texiera probably won't be too happy about that.

So let's round out the roster:

P: Rauch, Lincecum, Saito, Brandon Webb (ARI), Ben Sheets (MIL), Dan Haren (ARI), Cole Hamels (PHI), Edinson Volquez (CIN), Johan Santana (NYM), Aaron Cook (COL), Kerry Wood (CHC), Billy Wagner (NYM) and Brad Lidge (PHI).
C: Soto and Brian McCann (ATL)
1B: Berkman, Pujols, Gonzalez
2B: Utley, Dan Uggla (FLA)
3B: Jones, David Wright (NYM)
SS: Ramirez, Jose Reyes (NYM), Jimmy Rollins (PHI)
OF: Soriano (injured), Fukudome, Griffey, Jr., McLouth, Ryan Braun (MIL), Matt Holliday (COL), Carlos Lee (HOU)

So there's your 31 + one - Carlos Lee for an injured Soriano. Rollins is the shakiest choice here, but I can't imagine the previous year's MVP getting left out of the All-Star Game. My pick for the starting pitcher would be either Lincecum or Volquez on merit, or Webb on reputation.

There are certainly some snubs here, and there are certainly guys on the snub list who could be named and I wouldn't be too surprised. They are: Ryan Dempster (P, CHI), Tim Hudson (P, ATL), Jonathan Sanchez (P, SF), Chad Billingsley (P, LA), Kyle Lohse (P, STL), Jake Peavy (P, SD), Francisco Cordero (P, CIN), Jose Valverde (P, HOU), Russell Martin (C, LA), Derrek Lee (1B, CHC), Mark Teixeira (1B, ATL), Brandon Phillips (2B, CIN), Aramis Ramirez (3B, CHC), Corey Hart (OF, MIL), Jason Bay (PIT) and Adam Dunn (OF, CIN).

I think Peavy gets left out this year because of his DL stint. He just doesn't have the innings pitched, and the statistical bulk that comes with it, that he would normally have. Elsewhere, I think Martin gets left out in favor of teammate Saito to give the NL enough relievers, and partially because of Soto as well. Bay gets left out because teammate McLouth is a better fit in the sense that he plays center and most of the other NL outfielders don't - Fukudome and Griffey can, but as a habit they are corner guys. Other guys here sort of fit into a couple of different categories - close, but not close enough, not recognizable enough, too young or a combination of those. Overall, this is a pretty good team. The NL may lack in quantity of quality, but the cream of the crop is pretty substantial. Unlike the American League, where first base has become sort of a black hole, the NL has standout talent at every position.

The snub list will have four more names on it - the four players who are not selected in the Final Vote. Here are my five candidates, which I sort of picked at random:

Pat Burrell (OF, PHI)
Ryan Howard (1B, PHI)
Ryan Ludwick (OF, STL)
Xavier Nady/Jason Bay (OF, PIT)
Carlos Zambrano (P, CHC)

I expect Zambrano to win this vote, giving the NL 15 pitchers. Assuming that happens, here is how the NL roster breaks out by team:

# players: team
5: CHC
4: NYM, PHI
2: ARI, ATL, CIN, COL, FLA, HOU, MIL
1: LAD, PIT, STL, SD, SF, WAS

The NBA's Top 100 Players

So during the course of discussing Game 4 of the NBA Finals the other day with a co-worker, the subject of Paul Pierce's place in history came up. I argued, using the Sports Guy's boast that the Finals had bumped Pierce into the top 100 players of all-time, that Pierce was among the greats. My co-worker disagreed. As the day went on and we had more time to think about it, we got curious as to what a list like that would look like. Using the NBA's Top 50 at 50 list as a guide -

http://www.nba.com/history/players/50greatest.html

- I set about on this Father's Day to see who the next 50 on that list would be. My criteria for determining my list was simple. First, a player should have good career bulk. Now, guys like LeBron are on this list, and while they may not end up with it - they could get injured and never be the same - guys like him and Dwayne Wade qualify for being exceptional. If a player isn't exceptional, they need to have put some years together. Second, a player should have exceptional averages in the points, rebounds and assists department. For centers, blocks can come into play, and for guards, steals, but the guy should be exceptional in the three main categories. And third, the softer team leader/clutch/playoffs factors. Guys like Vince Carter need not apply.

Some of the guys in my "next 50" are old-timers that probably just missed the cut in 1996. Some are guys that have just retired or are in their primes now, and their greatness is undeniable. And some are guys who are just blossoming now that should have incredible careers if they can play for a long time.

Here is my "next 50," in alphabetical order by position:

PG:
Chauncey Billups
Sam Cassell
Maurice Cheeks
Baron Davis
Tim Hardaway
Mark Jackson
Dennis Johnson
Jason Kidd
Stephon Marbury
Calvin Murphy
Steve Nash
Norm Nixon
Chris Paul
Gary Payton

SG:
Ray Allen
Kobe Bryant
Joe Dumars
Gail Goodrich
Allen Iverson
Fat Lever
Reggie Miller
David Thompson
Dwayne Wade

SF:
Adrian Dantley
Alex English
Richard Hamilton
Grant Hill
LeBron James
Bernard King
Tracy McGrady
Chris Mullin
Paul Pierce
Dominique Wilkins

PF:
Elton Brand
Tom Chambers
Tim Duncan
Kevin Garnett
Connie Hawkins
Tom Heinsohn
Dan Issel
Dirk Nowitzki
Dennis Rodman
Amare Stoudemire
Chris Webber

C:
Walt Bellamy
Artis Gilmore
Dwight Howard
Bob Lanier
Bob McAdoo
Alonzo Mourning
Dikembe Mutombo

Just Missing:
PF Chris Bosh
C Marcus Camby
PF Shawn Kemp
SF Shawn Marion
C Buck Williams


Pierce actually makes my list fairly easily. While the list was made with no particular order in mind, I would have Pierce in there before guys like Baron Davis, Tim Hardaway, Maurice Cheeks, David Thompson, Joe Dumars, Grant Hill, Elton Brand, Tom Heinsohn, Connie Hawkins and Alonzo Mourning. For his career, Pierce is sixth on the Celtics all-time points scored list, and 77th overall. In terms of points per game, he is 21st all-time at 23.15 and 29th overall in the playoffs at 22.36. He has essentially been the same player in the playoffs as he has in the regular season, and that is a damned good one. He gets to the line, as evidenced by his being 43rd all-time in free throw attempts, and hits threes, as evidenced by his being 23rd all-time in three-pointers made. He is almost always in the lineup, as evidenced by his being 24th all-time in minutes per game at 37.6. He makes his steals, as evidenced by his having the 74th most steals in basketball history. He has been an All-Star six of the past seven years, missing only last season when the Celtics held him out of the lineup in a now famously poor attempt to try and get the number one pick in the draft.

For his career, he has averaged 23.1 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game (along with 1.6 steals). He has shot .442 from the field, .363 from three-point land and .795 from the line. The kicker, to me, is a complicated formula used by basketball-reference.com to predict Hall of Famers. On this list, Pierce is 65th all-time. Here is the link:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_career.html

You will see Vince Carter on this list as well, proving that computer regressions are not all-knowing, but what is interesting is the characteristics used for the model:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Notice that NBA championships is one of the more influential factors. Should Pierce and the Celtics win the NBA championship at some point in the next week, he will climb even further up this list, and really seal his Hall of Fame candidacy and lock him into the 100 best players of all-time. After all, he's The Truth.

Summer Movies 2008: One Month Later

Just over a month in, and I have to tell you, it's going to be hard to top Iron Man this summer. That movie was everything a blockbuster is supposed to be. It would definitely crack my Top 30 were I to re-do that post (I probably will at some point). I still think Dark Knight can be 1B to its 1A, but it will be hard to top.

Indiana Jones & The Crystal Skull certainly will not, however. Maybe I tried to analyze it too much and couldn't enjoy it like Sarah said, but the story just didn't suck me in at all. Opinions of others seem to be mixed, but Summer said she liked it enough to get the DVD.

Harold and Kumar 2 was incredibly disappointing, and looks to have suffered from Hollywood-ization. The jokes were the same as they were in the original, and that was the good news. The plot was terrible, as well as far fetched. In the original, the plot of two guys driving around in New Jersey on one night is completely reasonable, but in this one they go to Cuba, Florida, the "Deep South," Texas and then Amsterdam. I'm sorry, just a little bit too ridiculous for me. And Kumar got fat. Nothing says "I phoned in this movie" like gaining 20 or 30 pounds.

Baby Mama was absolutely hilarious, but it got pretty serious towards the end. There wasn't anything wrong with that per se, I just felt a little tricked by that in the sense that the trailers were all comedy, no drama. But I liked it a lot, and would probably buy it on DVD.

We didn't see Narnia and don't plan too, and we don't seem to be in the minority there. Speed Racer seems like it fell by the wayside, but maybe I'll still see it.

Summer Movies 2008

This is going to be a hell of a summer for movies. There are at least 24 movies that my wife and I are excited about seeing from now until the end of August. All the genres are on the docket: comic book adventures, comedies, animation and mysteries/thrillers. First, we'll run my wife's list. She didn't rank them all in number order, but of the 24 choices I gave her, here are the seven she's most excited about:

1. Hancock
2. Wanted
3. Get Smart
4. X-Files: I Want To Believe
5. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay
6. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor
7. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

I'm pretty sure she wants to see Wanted just because I told her I think it will suck, but that's mainly because I can't stand Angelina "Mother Theresa" Jolie. I'm surprised she didn't have Narnia on her list. She claims she doesn't need to see it in the theater, but I'm not buying it for a second. And while I'm disappointed she didn't have more comic book movies on her list, I am very excited about four of her movies, and am not opposed to any of her picks other than Wanted.

Here's my top 25, with release dates:
1. Iron Man (05/02)
2. The Dark Knight (07/18)
3. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (05/22)
4. The Incredible Hulk (06/13)
5. Wall-E (06/27)
6. Hancock (07/02)
7. Star Wars: The Clone Wars (08/15)
8. Pineapple Express (08/08)
9. Tropic Thunder (08/15)
10. Get Smart (06/20)
11. Hellboy II: The Golden Army (07/11)
12. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay (04/25)
13. Baby Mama (04/25)
14. Speed Racer (05/09)
15. The Wackness (07/03)
16. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (08/01)
17. X-Files: I Want To Believe (07/25)
18. The Happening (06/13)
19. The Foot Fist Way (05/30)
20. Space Chimps (07/18)
21. Wanted (06/27)
22. Step Brothers (07/25)
23. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (05/16)
24. Towelhead (08/15)

I was going to have The Dark Knight at number one, but with the producers considering changing the movie because people are squeamish about the late Heath Ledger's more violent scenes, I am being cautious and bumping it down to number two. However, I'm diving right in on The Incredible Hulk, which despite rumored in-fighting on the production promises to deliver the goods that the first Hulk movie did not. I'm surprised the Star Wars animated film isn't getting more buzz, but I suppose it will after George Lucas' Indy 4 hype dies down. Or maybe Lucas doesn't want it to get hype...who knows. And while this is a big summer for comic book movies there are a ton of good comedies on the docket as well. You might notice that the Sex and the City movie wasn't listed. That's because it's going to be one of the crappiest movies ever released in a theater.

And it doesn't stop at the end of the summer. With Righteous Kill (09/12), Zack and Miri Make a Porno (10/31), RocknRolla (10/31), James Bond 22 (11/07), Harry Potter & The Half-Blood Prince (11/21) and The Day The Earth Stood Still (12/12), it's going to be a good year at the movies.

MLB 2008

It's once again time for my semi-scientific approach to MLB picks for 2008. But first, let's take a look at how I did last year:

NAILED IT!
Team (# games off)
- NYA, HOU, KCA (0)

JUST ABOUT NAILED IT
- COL, PHI, DET, OAK, CIN (2)
- MIL, TEX (3)
- ARI, CHN, ATL (4)
- CLE, NYN, FLA, SFN (5)

PRETTY GOOD
- SDN, SLN (6)
- BOS, TOR, LAN (7)
- BAL (9)
- TBA (10)

NOT THAT GOOD
- MIN (11)
- PIT (12)
- LAA, WAS (13)
- CHA (14)

WAYYYYY OFF
- SEA (20)

All in all, not a bad year - I predicted more than half of the league within 5 wins of their actual win total. My process didn't change a whole lot this year. One thing I wanted to factor in this year is that the gap between the NL and AL is closing:

Year....AvgW-L
06AL....83-79
06NL....79-83

07AL....81.8-80.2
07NL....80.4-81.6

Projected:
08AL....81.4-80.6
08NL....80.6-81.4

A small difference overall, but a harbinger perhaps of greater things to come. Again, in making the picks I make sure that the correct number of wins and losses is parceled out league-wide and use a simple standard deviation test to make sure the records line up reasonably with an average of those in 2006 and 2007. Let's get to it. "07" is the difference between the team's projected 2008 finish and actual 2007 finish, with MLB rank being the team's total rank overall, 1-30.

AL E....W-L, 07, MLB Rank
BOS.....94-68, -2, 1
NYA.....88-74, -6, 9
TOR.....86-76, 3, 12
TBA.....82-80, 16, 16
BAL.....60-102, -9, 30

Boston is just as good as last year, but with increased competition from Tampa in addition to still very competitive New York and Tampa squads, and a bit of regression in the lineup from Manny, Papi and Lowell, a couple of wins come off the board. The big story here is Tampa's run to mediocrity. With three legitimate starters now in Kazmir, Shields and Garza, better candidates for the back-end of the rotation and an improved bullpen to match their killer offense - which added a veteran OBP guy in Cliff Floyd - the Rays should be better across the board.

AL C....W-L, 07, MLB Rank
CLE.....91-71, -5, 5
DET.....89-73, 1, 7
MIN.....77-85, -2, 20
CHA.....76-86, 4, 23
KCA.....75-87, 6, 24

Cleveland comes back to earth a little bit, but not enough for the Tigers to catch them. Quick - name a good reliever in Detroit's bullpen. Give up? That's because they're aren't any. Cabrera is a big upgrade at third, but the team got career years out of Granderson and Ordonez. Elsewhere, lots of people are picking Minnesota to bottom out, but I don't see it. With Liriano coming back, the rotation figures to be average or better and the pen is still a strength. The team will have a tough time scoring, but it's not a doomsday scenario, especially if Delmon Young improves in his second year. Chicago has two good starter and three not good ones, and no lineup can overcome that. KC continues the slow climb back to respectability under new Manager Trey Hillman.

AL W....W-L, 07, MLB Rank
LAA.....91-71, -3, 6
SEA.....86-76, -2, 13
TEX.....77-85, 2, 19
OAK.....68-94, -8, 26

Los Angeles stays on top almost by default. Though they had a full rotation and a great prospect in Nick Adenhart almost ready for the Majors, and not a lot of great options at shortstop after O-Cabs, they traded him for Jon Garland anyways. An even swap in a vacuum, but O-Cabs was a better fit for the Angels. The same can be said of the Torii Hunter acquisition - good player, wrong team. They now have six outfielders for three spots. They have the DH spot as well, but add Kendry Morales to the DH mix and you have seven players for four spots. That's going to leave people unhappy - Vladimir Guerrero is already complaining - and may effect play on the field. Seattle has little offense, as does Oakland. Down in Arlington, Texas has a chance to surpass this projection if they get a strong rebound season from Jason Jennings, but JJ's big year will more like be 2009.

NL E....W-L, 07, MLB Rank
NYN.....92-70, 4, 4
PHI.....85-77, -4, 14
ATL.....82-80, -2, 17
WAS.....80-82, 7, 18
FLA.....65-97, -6, 28

The Mets are a much better team with Santana, but lack of depth on the Club keeps them from the league's top three teams. Heading into the offseason, Philadelphia's two biggest issues were upgrading third base and the starting rotation. In my opinion, they did neither. With Brad Lidge already injured, and shaky the last two years when holding the closer mantle, their projection has to come down a bit. Atlanta is playing out the string with Chipper and Smoltz, similar to how Houston did with Bagwell and Biggio and the Giants did with Bonds. They will tread water for another year with Teixera's big bat helping the cause greatly. Washington will benefit from a much-improved lineup and that fresh ballpark smell that usually carries a little win boost with it.

NL C....W-L, 07, MLB Rank
CHN.....89-73, 4, 8
MIL.....87-75, 4, 11
CIN.....85-77, 13, 15
PIT.....77-85, 9, 21
SLN.....69-93, -9, 25
HOU.....65-97, -8, 29

My mother always taught me that if you don't have anything nice to say keep your mouth closed, so I don't have a lot to say about this division. Chicago and Milwaukee will keep improving gradually. In Chicago's case, important changes include Fukudome, full-time duty for Geovany Soto and an eventual upgrade at second base, whether it's Brian Roberts or someone else. Milwaukee's pen should be improved, a full year of Ryan Braun and an almost full year from Mike Cameron will help. Cincy will be much better, but they're still not quite there. A lot of people have them as their darkhorse, but I can't envision a scenario where they are better than both Chicago and Milwaukee, something they will have to be to make the playoffs.

NL W....W-L, 07, MLB Rank
COL.....93-69, 3, 2
ARI.....92-70, 2, 3
LAN.....87-75, 5, 10
SDN.....76-86, -13, 22
SFN.....66-96, -5, 27

If the Rockies 2-5 starters - Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Hirsh and Franklin Morales combine for 92-100 starts rather than their 67 from last year, they should give the Rockies a bump in their win total. In Arizona, Danny Haren will bring with him a small bump in wins. Randy Johnson may have something left in the tank, but if he doesn't - or if he gets hurt again - Arizona doesn't have a fantastic back-up plan. Again though, maturation from their young hitters - Justin Upton in particular - means the D-Backs will be one of the best teams in baseball. In LA, another old-school manager will not play his youngsters full-time, which will cost his team enough wins to keep them out of the playoffs. San Diego is a team that many figure will always be good, but regression from players like Brian Giles, Jim Edmonds and Greg Maddux, along with a reliance on the oft-injured Randy Wolf and Mark Prior to be significant cogs in their rotation mean that a fall is likely.

PLAYOFFS
AL:
1 BOS vs. 4 DET - BOS in 4
2 CLE vs. 3 LAA - CLE in 3

1 BOS vs. 2 CLE - CLE in 7

NL:
1 COL vs. 3 CHN - COL in 5
2 NYN vs. 4 ARI - ARI in 4

1 COL vs. 4 ARI - ARI in 7

WORLD SERIES - ARI in 7

While I did a relatively good job at picking team's overall records last season, I did a very poor job of picking the playoffs. I only picked four of the eight teams correctly, picked one of the four LCS teams correctly and zero of the two World Series teams correctly. Nevertheless, I offer up these projections. They will probably be wrong, but there they are anyways. Arizona and Colorado is becoming like Yankees vs. Red Sox, with 1/10 of the fan base/media attention. Last year's participants come to the brink of a rematch, only to see their hopes dashed at the last second. A rematch however, does seem plausible. For the record, I see the following teams as legitimate World Series contenders - Arizona, Boston, Cleveland, Colorado, both Los Angeles teams and the New York Mets, so that will be how I hedge my bets.

Since I did even worse in my Awards voting (getting only one of six correctly - CC Sabathia for AL Cy) I'm not even going to bother with that this year.

Patriot Games

The first football game I remember watching from start to finish was Super Bowl XXIII between the Forty-Niners and Bengals. I remember betting my dad $5 before the game that the Bengals would win, and I remember him not letting me pay him when the Niners came back and did win. Before that, I can remember the second quarter of Super Bowl XXII, and the pep rallys that we had at my elementary school before the Patriots played the Dolphins and Bears in the '85 playoffs.

After Super Bowl XXIII though is when I became what I like to call a "coherent" Patriots fan. Before then, I was a fan because my dad told me to be, but I don't remember much about it. 1989 was when I started remembering things. And boy, those first couple years were not filled with good memories. The Patriots were terrible then. Hart Lee Dykes came and went faster than Haley's comet. Stanley Morgan's career ended. Andre Tippett was in the twilight of his career. Rod Rust was prominently involved. My church had a banquet for Dick Macpherson, and when I met him I wasn't as impressed as I thought I'd be. And the Patriots only won 14 games over a four year span, and average of less than four wins per season.

Then in 1993 Bill Parcells became our new head coach and the team made the fortunate decision of drafting Drew Bledsoe instead of Rick Mirer with the #1 pick. Since that time, the Pats have had 12 .500 or better seasons in 15. Two of the losing seasons came in Parcells and Bill Belichick's first seasons as coach, when they essentially gutted the team so they could reshape them how they wanted. In those 12 .500 or better seasons, the team made the Super Bowl almost half the time - five times in 12 years. And in those five Super Bowls they won over half the time, winning three of five.

All of this is to say, what exactly do I have to complain about? Am I disappointed the Pats lost last night? Hell ya! But upset, pissed, peaved, distraught? No, not really. I could be a Detroit Lions fan, or an Arizona Cardinals fan, or a Buffalo Bills fan. But I'm not. I'm a Patriots fan, and if I'm going to be upset that my team just finished 18-1, well then I'd basically be a spoiled little b**ch. 18 wins is four more than the Pats won in that famous four year span from 1989-1992, and I thank them for giving me a great season. The Giants deserved to win and the Pats deserved to lose. Yes, if they played nine more times the Patriots would probably win at least eight of those times, but that's quite irrelevant. In football you only get one shot, so as Eminem would say you can't miss your chance to blow. Last night the Patriots missed that chance, but that doesn't mean I'm going to stop being proud of my squad.

Now let's resign Asante, make some good picks in the draft, get Rosey healthy and get back to winning in 2008. Meanwhile, we're less than nine full days away from pitchers and catchers reporting. Let's get it on!