Did you know that The Simpsons Movie came out this summer? Sometimes our society astounds me. The phrase "out with the old, in with the new" has been sped up to the point where something is "old" only hours after it's "new." Next week, the NFL season kicks off, and with it the quest for Super Bowl 42 (or XLII, but I think the Roman numerals are a little antiquated at this point). By the time October rolls around, most talking heads will have revised their predictions 47 times, because, well they're talking heads. That's what they do. Myself, I don't have time to revise my predictions, I only want to make them once. Measure twice, cut once as my father would say. And before I slip off my soapbox and break my neck, here they are in reverse order, with each team likened to a character on The Simpsons in honor of that glorious Simpons Movie.
32. Atlanta Falcons (3-13) - Kirk Van Houten
Named for the most disgraced man in the town of Springfield. If you don't get the analogy, well then perhaps you'd like to crawl out of your cave and join the rest of civilization. Maybe someday Michael Vick will earn redemption in the same manner that Kirk did when he eventually got back together with Luann, but like Kirk after he got divorced, fired, had his demo tape laughed at and his car stolen, things don't seem like they could be worse for the Falcons. Already facing the daunting challenge of blending with a rookie coach, now they must do so with Joey Harrington at the helm and Warrick Dunn recovering from back surgery. Count me among those who don't think Harrington is as bad as his reputation, but he sure has some awful, awful luck. When you're pointing to a 35-year old Joe Horn as the bright spot of your offense, and you're counting on the always fragile John Abraham to spark your defense, things aren't looking good.
31. Miami Dolphins (3-13) - Frank Grimes
Ol' Grimey had it pretty bad in life, having to overcome obstacle after obstacle to make his way, and when he finally did, he ended up dead shortly thereafter. The Dolphins have put obstacle after obstacle in front of themselves this season. When Nick Saban quit it meant they had to hire a new coach once again, and one of their up and coming candidates - Jason Garrett - jumped ship to Dallas as quickly as humanly possible. They then drafted Ted Ginn instead of Brady Quinn, and compounded their mistake by trading for an over-the-hill QB in Trent Green. At 37 years old, Green has no chance of being part of the next great Dolphins team, assuring that the Fish would do no better than tread water this season rather than really rebuild. And if that weren't bad enough, the Dolphins will have the second hardest schedule in the NFL this year. Finally, with the Patriots coming to town in Week 7 this year, they won't be primed for a letdown in Miami like they were last year.
30. Kansas City Chiefs (4-12) - Scratchy the Cat
Every afternoon, Itchy kills Scratchy, and yet the next afternoon there's Scratchy, up to his old antics and not realizing that Itchy has it in for him yet again. By not attempting to upgrade his offense to complement Larry Johnson this offseason, Carl Peterson and Herman Edwards effectively sentenced the Chiefs offense to be Scratchy to opposing defenses' Itchy all season. Oh sure, Scratchy has a weapon up his sleeve in Larry Johnson, a nice rusty chainsaw to hack at the defense. But with no aerial attack to speak of, it will seem as though opposing defenses have a cannon, a nuclear bomb, a...you get the idea. The Chiefs will be over matched on offense, and no matter how much their average defense improves, it simply won't be enough to be competitive. Ty Law deserves better.
29. Detroit Lions (4-12) - Selma Bouvier Terwilliger Hutz McClure Stu Simpson
You would think the Herb Powell analogy would fit well here, but don't forget that Powell made himself into a multi-millionaire - twice. That kind of creativity hasn't been seen in Matt Millen's office, well, ever. No, Aunt Selma works best here. Aunt Selma is always falling for a new love, while Matt Millen is always falling for a new wide receiver. Like Selma however, Matt Millen and the Lions are destined to end up right back where they started - in the cellar. The Lions are really in a sorry state - of their four projected wins, I don't have them beating even one winning team. All the receivers in the world won't help this team. If you need to win a shootout in Madden 2007, this might be the team you take. But without a proven running attack or a QB who can consistently hit on the 50 yard pass (only 6% of Kitna's completed passes were deep balls last year), you might not even pick Detroit for that purpose.
28. Houston Texans (4-12) - Gil Gunderson
Old Gil never succeeds at anything he does. From car salesman to lawyer to real estate agent, Gil is repeatedly kicked to the curb. The Texans are building what could be a very good defense in time. But one could have said that two years ago when it looked as though the Texans could form a nucleus around Jason Babin and Travis Johnson (as Football Outsiders ably points out in their Texans preview). Perhaps it will be different for them in the future, or perhaps they'll be like Old Gil - always trying to get one big score so their wives will stop cheating on them (aka rooting for the Cowboys).
27. Cleveland Browns (5-11) - Troy McClure (RIP)
He made us laugh didn't he? Once on top of the world, Troy was booted out of the spotlight due to his paraphilia. The Browns went through a similar downturn in fortunes, though theirs was caused by a greedy owner who moved his team out of town rather than paraphilia. Right now, the Browns are in the stage where they're just starting to date Selma. Pretty soon, MacArthur Parker will be calling the Browns, saying things like "that Brady Quinn has made you sexy again!" and "that Kellen Winslow is just what we need to shake up Hollywood!" Hopefully for Browns fans, the story will end differently than it did for Troy, and frankly, I think it will. Just not this season. In a different division, the Browns would probably be a seven, or even eight win team. In this division, they will be fighting for their lives. But in 2008, the tune will be "get your paws off me you dirty ape!"
26. St. Louis (5-11) - Artie Ziff
All flash, no finish. Artie was the Internet billionaire who lost it all when the bubble burst. From partying with Scottie Pippen and Jeneane Garofalo to watching the walls come down crashing around him, Ziff had too many highs, too many lows and simply not enough of the creamy middles that Homer likes so much. Stephen Jackson might be the best running back in football along with LDT, and Marc Bulger might be an elite quarterback with a number of weapons at his disposal. But when you're going full speed ahead, often you don't remember to watch your back. The Rams have no defense, and haven't since Lovie Smith graduated to Chicago in 2004. When your best player on defense is an alcoholic just one empty liquor bottle away from his next DUI, it becomes increasingly clear that all the flash in the world isn't going to amount to much at the end of the season.
25. New York Giants (5-11) - Chief Clancy Wiggum
Victories are rare in Chief Wiggum's world. Like Flanders once chastised, the last thing Wiggum got to the bottom of was a case of Malamars. Even when he does beat Rex Banner to the punch, he winds up putting the screws to Homer. When he catches Kirk Van Houten for kidnapping, it's only because he hears the crackling sound of Chinsy Pop, the world's cheapest popcorn, which he knows only because he too eats the shameful stuff. When the Giants find competent pieces for their attack, it often comes with a cost. Eli Manning cost them a bounty in draft picks and players. Plaxico Burress can stretch the field, but he doesn't play hard every down. Michael Strahan's career numbers match up with Lawrence Taylor's, but he's such a distraction and caricature that nobody notices. Owners of the third hardest schedule in 2007, saddled with what is almost certainly a lame duck coach and with ex-players like Tiki Barber still haunting the team with his talking-head potshots, it's going to be a long year for the New York football Giants.
24. Arizona Cardinals (6-10) - Edna Krabappel
"Bart, this is your teacher? I have to start going to Parent's Night." Oh, Mrs. Krabappel may be very sexy, but she comes with the baggage that any jilted lover does. Once again, the Cardinals are the toast of the fantasy football universe, with Larry Fitgerald and Anquan Boldin having established themselves among the fantasy elite, with Matt Leinart not far behind and the Edge still a reliable target. But like St. Louis, where' the defense? With yet another new coaching staff in a seemingly endless carousel, the Cards were facing an uphill battle already in 2007. But when they lost their best pass rusher, Chike Okeafor, for the season, the task is now almost insurmountable. However, with Levi Brown at left tackle, and Ken Whisenhunt hopefully doing for Leinart what he did for Ben Roethlisberger, 2008 finally could be the year that Arizona puts everything together.
23. Oakland Raiders (6-10) - Grandpa Simpson
He's annoying, he's a pain in your butt, but every once in awhile he hatches a worthwhile scheme (like the Simpson & Son aphrodisiac). The Raiders have the opposite problem that the Cards and Rams do, they have little offense to go with a killer defense. Generally, you'd rather have the killer defense, so that's good news for residents of the Black Hole. And with a little luck, perhaps Duante Culpepper to Ronald Curry can become a dynamite combo, and either LaMont Jordan, Dominic Rhodes or Michael Bush can be the answer at running back. Until then, the biggest story in Raidersville will likely be whether or not JaMarcus Russell is going to sign with the silver and black. Until then, they'll just be the crazy old man rambling on the sideline, hoisting onions on their belt.
22. Buffalo Bills (6-10) - Hans Moleman
Can't do much right, no one seems to know he's alive. When he gets water splashed on him by others and they laugh, he can't even stomach the backbone to get upset, lamenting simply "I'm glad to have shared in their fun." Indeed the Bills have shared in the fun of others this past decade, watching as everyone (except for the Texans) in the AFC has made the playoffs but them. Generally, when a team loses four of its best players in one offseason - as the Bills did this offseason when they lost Nate Clements, Willis McGahee, London Fletcher-Baker and Takeo Spikes - it would be a major story about which analysts would churn out column inch after column inch. When it happens in Buffalo, everyone shrugs their collective shoulders. Where have you gone, Jim Kelly?
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) - Principal Seymour Skinner
Like the Bucs and Jon Gruden, Principal Skinner always thinks that salvation is just a quick fix away. Whether it's striking oil under the school, reaping the proceeds from the lottery or tricking Lisa Simpson into spilling the beans about her cheating to the "fake" comptroller, Seymour is always up to something. The same goes for the Bucs. Rather than admitting that they are in a downturn, and that they should give Chris Simms a year to get things sorted out and then really build around him in 2008, Gruden instead imported free agent graybeards like Jeff Garcia and Joey Galloway. They will bring the Bucs back to respectability, but they will be hard pressed to help the Bucs regain their now forgotten championship swagger.
20. Dallas Cowboys (7-9) - "Diamond" Joe Quimby
I suppose Rich Texan would work too, but that just seems way too easy. Always in the news, always full of themselves and never aware that they're headed for a fall, Quimby and the Cowboys have much in common. They don't realize that there's ANOTHER election this November or that their schedule is the fifth hardest in the league. All they see when they look in the mirror are those pearly whites, bulging muscles and the arrogance that comes with being on top of the world for so long. "Diamond" Joe hasn't received his comeuppance yet, but the Cowboys certainly will this year. Get ready for tons of "what if the Cowboys had drafted Brady Quinn?" stories come January.
19. Minnesota Vikings (7-9) - Maggie Simpson
Minnesota is the team you never hear about, but you know that they're there. Who's playing quarterback? Is it still Randall Cunningham? Or Brad Johnson? Or Randall Johnson? No, this year it's Tavaris Jackson, although at 44, Cunningham might do just as well as Jackson will this season. Though they are backed by a very strong run defense and a burgeoning rushing attack, the Purple People Eaters will nevertheless miss Mike Tomlin, who has moved on to coach the Pittsburgh Steelers, and an incredibly unreliable receiving corps will make Jackson look worse than he is. And he won't be very good at all. All told, it will likely be another faceless season that fades into the background. Kind of like Maggie.
18. Washington Redskins (8-8) - Marge Simpson
Marge is loyal, and above moral reproach. When she was wrongfully locked away in prison for one month, the town realized how much they missed her and altered a statue of Jimmy Carter into her likeness. No one erected a statue (that I know of) to commemorate Joe Gibbs when he retired to focus full-time on NASCAR, but he was certainly missed in a Redskins front office run amok. Since returning, he has moved with the same pace as Marge - slow and steady. Jason Campbell was probably ready to start full-time last year at QB, but Gibbs waited the majority of the season before plugging him in. And while the Skins made the playoffs in '05, changes were needed, but came slowly. They still aren't coming fast - the Skins have plenty of star power but little depth. After a solid '07 campaign with Campbell at the helm, they will hopefully find that depth, and build towards even better things in 2008.
17. New York Jets (8-8) - Martin Prince, Jr.
A fat, sniveling know-it-all who has the brains to rule the world, but certainly not the charisma. Wait, am I talking about Eric Mangini or Martin Prince, Jr.? Well, both really. The New York media machine had dubbed him the "Mangenius", and hoisted celebrity status on the former Pats assistant, but the media is still in its honeymoon period. Like all honeymoons in New York, it will be short lived. The Jets made improvements heading into 2007, but they also played worse than their record indicated in 2006. Football Outsiders' DVOA statistic is the most innovative stat that translates what we see on the field into meaningful numbers. Overall, a team wants a positive DVOA for a season or a game, expressed in a percentage. Last season, the Jets won two games when they had a negative DVOA, and won two others with a DVOA of less than 7%. Conversely though, they deserved to lose the games that they lost - there were no positive DVOA losses for the Jets in 2006. Knock 2-3 wins off their 2006 total and they end up with 7 or 8 wins, rather than 10. This season, the Jets will improve, but because they got some lucky bounces last year, it will APPEAR that they are doing worse. 2008 is the year they will put it all together. Or like Martin's soap box racer, it could just be the year when their world goes careening out of control, because their know-it-all coach can't turn his book smarts into production on the field.
16. Tennessee Titans (8-8) - Krusty the Clown
Sometimes he has his act together, sometimes he doesn't. But he's always there. Krusty the Clown has been smart enough to license his name and make a large fortune and later to fake his own death, but in between he was dumb enough to bet on the Washington Generals and squander everything. Jeff Fisher has been smart enough to hitch his wagon to Steve McNair and Eddie George, but dumb enough to hitch it to Pacman Jones and Joe Nedney. Sometimes, like with the "Music City Miracle", he's been very fortunate, but other times, like with "The Tackle", he's been very unfortuntate. So which category will the Vince Young era fit in? That remains to be seen, but my bet would be in the "fortunate" category. Though Pacman's suspension and a host of unproven players surrounding Young on offense will prevent the Titans from fully making the leap into contention this year, the future is still bright in the Music City. Like it reads on the state's welcome sign, Tennessee'n is Tennebelievin'.
15. Seattle Seahawks (9-7) - Cookie Kwan
Cookie Kwan, like the Seahawks, is number one on the west side. But Cookie never ventured out of her neighborhood, and the Seahawks rarely do either. The Seahawks have made the playoffs four straight years, and won the NFC West three straight years, but the 'Hawks are just 3-5 in the playoffs, and in only one season did they advance to the conference championship. This is the year when the 'Hawks will not be number one on the west side. Shaun Alexander is aging rapidly, as is the club's offensive line. Conventional wisdom holds that if Seattle can stay healthy this season, they have the talent to walk away with the division. But real wisdom holds that a successful NFL team is not one that is loaded from players 1-15, but rather one that is balanced from 1-53. The Seahawks team composition leans more towards the former, and this is the year that that takes a bite out of their playoff chances.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) - Moe Szyslak
Every year there is a team that is bound for glory, if they can just stay out of their own way. Football Outsiders projections tabbed the Jags as having the second best projection in football this season behind only the Patriots. In addition to a rock-solid defense and evolving running attack, one of the strong points for the Jags was their quarterback Byron Leftwich. At the peak age of 27 when quarterbacks historically have their best season and usually earn a trip to Hawaii, Leftwich is primed for a breakout year. Unfortunately for Jacksonville fans, he will do it with another team. Earlier this week, Jags coach Jack Del Rio named backup and lesser quarterback David Garrard as his starter. Such a poor decision is akin to the type of chicanery Moe is known for. Whether it's opening Uncle Moe's Family Feedbag, killing Alfalfa, not selling the Flaming Moe's recipe, stealing Shamu, buying only one inch of bulletproof glass, or giving away soap opera plot lines, you can always count on Moe to make the wrong decision. Same as Jack "Chopping Wood" Del Rio.
13. Denver Broncos (9-7) - Comic Book Guy, aka Jeff Albertson
The Comic Book Guy thinks he knows everything. He is all alone in the world in the power of his knowledge, but he also runs a very successful business. Mike Shanahan thinks he knows everything, even calling himself "The Ultimate Leader" in his own biography. Like the Comic Book Guy, he also runs a very successful business, as the Broncos will likely sell out their games as long as Shanahan is at the helm. But the Comic Book Guy eventually has a heart attack. It doesn't kill him, but it certainly forces him to re-evaluate things. The Broncos were forced to reevaluate things after they missed the playoffs last year, something that gave their fans a collective heart attack. Gone is much of the old guard who led the Broncos to the AFC Championship just two years ago - Al Wilson, Jake Plummer, Tatum Bell, etc. Newcomers like Travis "the babymaker" Henry, Jay Cutler and a slew of new defensive lineman are supposed to lead the Broncos back to the promised land. But Cutler faces an uphill battle. Quick - name a successful Vanderbilt University alumni in the NFL. On offense, the list is nonexistent. Shanahan is hoping that Cutler is the best. quarterback. ever, but history dictates that he will fall short of that mark, and he will take the Broncos playoff hopes with him.
12. Carolina Panthers (9-7, NFC Wild Card) - Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
Apu is an ingrained American immigrant - the Panthers are an ingrained NFL immigrant. Apu has a very strong work ethic, as do the Panthers, an ethic instilled in them by their head coach John Fox. Apu doesn't have all the angles figured out in trying to take care of his eight children, and Panthers QB Jake Delhomme doesn't have all the angles figured out in trying to take care of his ten teammates on offense. With too little impact from the running game, the Panthers were too often forced into third and long last season. Eventually, this ruined their season; their hopes crumbled when a four game losing second half losing streak allowed New Orleans to leapfrog over them and land the Panthers on the outside looking in. This year, the Panthers will improve ever so slightly, squeaking back into the playoffs as a Wild Card team. Unfortunately, they won't get past that, and decisions will need to be made in the offseason as to what direction the Panthers will take in 2008 and beyond.
11. San Francisco 49ers (10-6, NFC West Champs) - Squeaky Voiced Teen
The 49ers are still the young punks at the dance, good enough to know they belong, but not good enough to know what to do once they get inside. We learned at the end of the Simpsons Movie that the Squeaky Voiced Teen actually has a film school degree. He is going places - eventually. But right now, he's only managed to get his start in the industry. The Niners are the same. The rapidly improving nucleus of Frank Gore, Alex Smith and Vernon Davis, combined with savvy veteran additions like Nate Clements and Darrell Jackson have San Fran's star on the rise once again. In 2008, they will add even more talent to the mix, and with Patrick Willis and Jason Hill rounding into shape alongside the three offensive linchpins, the Niners will be a Super Bowl contender once again.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, AFC Wild Card) - Dr. Julius Hibbert
His diagnoses are always a buzzkill, but he laughs at them anyways. It's the kind of sense of humor that only a Steelers fan can appreciate, delighting in the misery of others. The Steelers under Bill Cowher certainly heaped a lot of misery and misfortune on their opponents, and with bright young defensive mind Mike Tomlin taking the reins, that trend is sure to continue. In a loaded AFC North they won't get all the way to the cream of the crop in 2007, and jettisoning veterans like Joey Porter will let the team find a new identity under Tomlin and Roethlisberger. Come 2008, the Steel City will be waiving their terrible towels for a Super Bowl contender once again. This year, they will have to be content to stay on the fringes of playoff competition.
9. New Orleans Saints (10-6, NFC South Champs) - Bart Simpson
The fun-loving scamp that is always going a mile a minute most closely fits to the Saints personality. Behind a high powered offense, the Saints are fun to watch, and they have inspired a city, much like Bart inspired Springfield with "the power." And though the Saints defense betrayed them in the playoffs last season, it was much better during the second half than it was during the first half. With the team's biggest defensive weakness - cornerback - receiving a big boost in the free agent signing of Jason David, the only question for the Saints D is can it stay healthy throughout 2007. If it can, the Saints could bombard the competition like Bart did with so many water balloons. If not, the Saints will end up battered and bruised, like when Bart dislocated his elbow and knocked himself unconscious. Either way, it promises to be an another exciting season down in the Crescent City.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6, AFC Wild Card) - C. Montgomery Burns
Like Mr. Burns, the Bengals seem to have no moral compass whatsoever, doing whatever necessary, but more importantly hiring whomever necessary to get the job done. Of course, that kind of thinking doesn't always pay off, as the Bengals and their record number of entries in the police blotter demonstrated last year. Also like Mr. Burns, the Bengals have been incredibly stubborn. Though their defense had more holes than a chain link fence last year, Cincinnati did little other than draft cornerback Leon Hall. Until they see the error of their ways, they will remain a domineering team that can't put the final pieces of world domination together.
7. Green Bay Packers (11-5, NFC Wild Card, NFC CHAMPIONS) - Homer Simpson
Homer Simpson might be the very definition of the phrase "Wild Card." No city better fits Homer than Green Bay, a city where a man can eat all the bratwurst and drink all the beer he possibly can. Bret Favre has a lot of Homer in him as well, the old-fashioned gunslinger who isn't concerned with small things like stats. Bret just wants to do the Lambeau Leap, something you know Homer would enjoy, as long as he had Principal Skinner's back to launch himself from (like when he dunked during a pickup basketball game). Like Homer, the Packers are about to go on a wild ride through the NFC, falling just short of Chicago for the NFC North crown, but getting their revenge in the NFC Championship game. And when the Packers ultimately fall short in the Super Bowl like Homer did in his title bout with Drederick Tatum, they won't be devastated or upset. They'll simply be happy that their gunslinger got one final ride into the sunset, and that he made it out alive to tell the story. And then they'll get loaded!
6. Chicago Bears (11-5, NFC North Champs) - Lou
Lovie Smith is a very intelligent man, a great leader who has transformed the Bears into a championship club seemingly overnight. But like police sergeant Lou, his fortunes are ever-tied to his less competent partner. A head coach can guide his team, but the most important player on the field is the quarterback. In Rex Grossman, as in Chief Wiggum, Lovie and Lou have hitched their wagons to someone who is probably going to come up short in the end. The Bears will still have a dominant defense this year, and if Cedric Benson can stay upright for a whole season, he and the "other" Adrian Peterson will combine to give Chicago an excellent running game. However, the season still rests on the impulsive right arm of "Sexy Rexy". While he will likely be better in 2007, simply because he couldn't be any worse than he was down the stretch in 2006, when it comes down to it, who do you trust - Grossman or Favre? For that simple reason, the Packers will end up besting the Bears and advancing to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLII. With Lance Briggs seemingly out the door at the end of the season, it could be the last chance that Brian Urlacher and the Bears D has to fulfill their dreams.
5. San Diego Chargers (11-5, AFC West Champs) - Hank Scorpio
Blazing a trail of glory, and having enough money to own the Denver Broncos, Hank Scorpio was a once-in-a-series character, though he was sort of reincarnated for The Movie. His schemes are brilliant on paper, but lacking in execution. The Chargers, behind the incredible wattage of stars like LDT, Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, Marcus McNeill, Jamal Williams and steroid users Shawne Merriman and Luis Castillo, are formidable paper tigers. With Norv Turner now at the helm however, the Bolts will continue to look much better on paper than they do on the field. Turner is infamous for his lack of motivational skills as a coach, as evidenced by listless squads with Washington and Oakland. Rivers will make strides, and Vincent Jackson and Eric Parker should emerge as a very good WR combo to team with Gates and LDT, but in the end the Chargers will not be able to harness the little things that champions do.
4. Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North Champs) - Nelson Muntz
The big bully. Nelson, along with Jimbo, Dolph and Kearney, are the bad boys of Springfield Elementary. Either "Fat Tony" or "Snake" would fit for the Ravens as well, but Nelson's taunting "Ha Ha's" and "stop hitting yourself" cut to the core of what the Baltimore Ravens truly are - bullies that like doling out the punishment. They make sure you know you are being punished, and revel in it almost to the point where they take their eyes off the prize. This season, the Ravens have not taken their eyes off the prize. They traded for Willis McGahee and believe they have replacements for linebacker Adalius Thomas and tackle Tony Pashos. With Mark Clayton emerging alongside Derrick Mason and Todd Heap, the Ravens actually have formidable aerial weapons now as well. Combined with McGahee, McNair and a dominant line, the Ravens are primed for another run to glory. It will be a run that will take them to the AFC Championship, but their blue collar style will ultimately fall short in the end.
3. Indianapolis Colts (12-4, AFC South Champs) - Ned Flanders
He's so good that you hate him. Stupid Flanders. Stupid Peyton. Oh sure, you laugh at each one on Sundays, Flanders in primetime, and Manning seemingly every commercial break, but they are both formidable foes that kill you with kindness and kill you with efficiency. Just like Flanders is always flanked by his robotic like sons Rodd & Todd, so too is Manning flanked by his robotic receivers Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Unfortunately the Colts of last year are the Colts of this year. Last year, they beat the Ravens in the divisional round of the playoffs by a mere nine points. Their powerhouse offense only outgained Baltimore's by 17 yards. This season, with Baltimore closing the gap offensively and Indy not closing the gap defensively, Indy's time is up. Fortunately for them, they won the Super Bowl last year and are in the Bill Simmons' patented five year grace period.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-4, NFC East Champs) - Rev. Timothy Lovejoy
Rev. Lovejoy is a pillar of the community, or so it would seem. Beneath his seemingly sincere love and care for the citizens of Springfield's as its spiritual purveyor, Lovejoy is actually a bad apple. He instructs his dog to poop on Flanders' lawn, gives apathetic advice to callers and indulges his wife Helen, who is the town gossiphound. The Eagles carry a similar, empty veneer. They have been perennial contenders in the '00's, but behind each success story there is drama boiling underneath the surface. Whether it's T.O., the drafting of Kevin Kolb, Andy Reid's delinquent sons, there's always drama in Philly. Fortunately, like the show, the forecast is always sunny in Philadelphia as well. The Eagles still have the league's most talented squad, and assuming QB Donovan McNabb can keep on his feet for 17 weeks, Philly will be the Super Bowl favorite come January. Running up against the buzzsaw that will be the Green Bay Packers will certainly be no cause for alarm, but that doesn't mean the alarm won't be sounded anyways. After all, it's Philly. Somewhere, Rev. Lovejoy is nodding his head knowingly.
1. New England Patriots (15-1, AFC East Champs, AFC CHAMPIONS, SUPER BOWL XLII CHAMPIONS) - Lisa Simpson
You really want to hate her. You do. You know you do. Sure, she's eight years old, but she just knows everything! How is that possible? But she always has an answer, and it's always the right answer. Not only that, but she makes it count when the chips are down. Win a spelling bee? Check. Climb the "Eliminator"? Check. Become a ruthless hockey goalie? Check. Lisa's conquests are too long to name here, as are those of Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Patriots. Loaded up for another title run in 2007, the Patriots won't even feel the brunt of losing Rodney Harrison and Richard Seymour for the first four and six weeks of the season, respectively. The Pats drafted Brandon Meriweather as Harrison insurance, and Jarvis Green and Mike Wright are more than capable of filling in for Seymour. When Seymour in particular comes off the PUP list in Week 7, he will be fresh and ready for a rampage. Though the Pats schedule isn't a cakewalk, the team simply has no weakness this season. They are deep enough that future Hall of Famer Junior Seau doesn't even have to start at linebacker, and the Pats average age at every position is 30 or younger. Like Lisa Simpson, Belichick and his team have all the angles figured out, and are smart enough to know how to execute those angles properly when they must. They won't win every game, losing in Week 6 at Dallas, but they will be as close to perfection as one can get in this modern NFL world.
APPENDIX:
PLAYOFFS
AFC:
#3 Baltimore beats #6 Pittsburgh
#4 Cincinnati beats #3 San Diego
#1 New England beats #4 Cincinnati
#3 Baltimore beats #2 Indianapolis
#1 New England beats #3 Baltimore
NFC:
#3 New Orleans beats #6 Carolina
#5 Green Bay beats #4 San Francisco
#5 Green Bay beats #1 Philadelphia
#2 Chicago beats #3 New Orleans
#5 Green Bay beats #2 Chicago
SUPER BOWL XLII:
New England 27 - Green Bay 15
MVP: Tedy Bruschi (in his final game)
32. Atlanta Falcons (3-13) - Kirk Van Houten
Named for the most disgraced man in the town of Springfield. If you don't get the analogy, well then perhaps you'd like to crawl out of your cave and join the rest of civilization. Maybe someday Michael Vick will earn redemption in the same manner that Kirk did when he eventually got back together with Luann, but like Kirk after he got divorced, fired, had his demo tape laughed at and his car stolen, things don't seem like they could be worse for the Falcons. Already facing the daunting challenge of blending with a rookie coach, now they must do so with Joey Harrington at the helm and Warrick Dunn recovering from back surgery. Count me among those who don't think Harrington is as bad as his reputation, but he sure has some awful, awful luck. When you're pointing to a 35-year old Joe Horn as the bright spot of your offense, and you're counting on the always fragile John Abraham to spark your defense, things aren't looking good.
31. Miami Dolphins (3-13) - Frank Grimes
Ol' Grimey had it pretty bad in life, having to overcome obstacle after obstacle to make his way, and when he finally did, he ended up dead shortly thereafter. The Dolphins have put obstacle after obstacle in front of themselves this season. When Nick Saban quit it meant they had to hire a new coach once again, and one of their up and coming candidates - Jason Garrett - jumped ship to Dallas as quickly as humanly possible. They then drafted Ted Ginn instead of Brady Quinn, and compounded their mistake by trading for an over-the-hill QB in Trent Green. At 37 years old, Green has no chance of being part of the next great Dolphins team, assuring that the Fish would do no better than tread water this season rather than really rebuild. And if that weren't bad enough, the Dolphins will have the second hardest schedule in the NFL this year. Finally, with the Patriots coming to town in Week 7 this year, they won't be primed for a letdown in Miami like they were last year.
30. Kansas City Chiefs (4-12) - Scratchy the Cat
Every afternoon, Itchy kills Scratchy, and yet the next afternoon there's Scratchy, up to his old antics and not realizing that Itchy has it in for him yet again. By not attempting to upgrade his offense to complement Larry Johnson this offseason, Carl Peterson and Herman Edwards effectively sentenced the Chiefs offense to be Scratchy to opposing defenses' Itchy all season. Oh sure, Scratchy has a weapon up his sleeve in Larry Johnson, a nice rusty chainsaw to hack at the defense. But with no aerial attack to speak of, it will seem as though opposing defenses have a cannon, a nuclear bomb, a...you get the idea. The Chiefs will be over matched on offense, and no matter how much their average defense improves, it simply won't be enough to be competitive. Ty Law deserves better.
29. Detroit Lions (4-12) - Selma Bouvier Terwilliger Hutz McClure Stu Simpson
You would think the Herb Powell analogy would fit well here, but don't forget that Powell made himself into a multi-millionaire - twice. That kind of creativity hasn't been seen in Matt Millen's office, well, ever. No, Aunt Selma works best here. Aunt Selma is always falling for a new love, while Matt Millen is always falling for a new wide receiver. Like Selma however, Matt Millen and the Lions are destined to end up right back where they started - in the cellar. The Lions are really in a sorry state - of their four projected wins, I don't have them beating even one winning team. All the receivers in the world won't help this team. If you need to win a shootout in Madden 2007, this might be the team you take. But without a proven running attack or a QB who can consistently hit on the 50 yard pass (only 6% of Kitna's completed passes were deep balls last year), you might not even pick Detroit for that purpose.
28. Houston Texans (4-12) - Gil Gunderson
Old Gil never succeeds at anything he does. From car salesman to lawyer to real estate agent, Gil is repeatedly kicked to the curb. The Texans are building what could be a very good defense in time. But one could have said that two years ago when it looked as though the Texans could form a nucleus around Jason Babin and Travis Johnson (as Football Outsiders ably points out in their Texans preview). Perhaps it will be different for them in the future, or perhaps they'll be like Old Gil - always trying to get one big score so their wives will stop cheating on them (aka rooting for the Cowboys).
27. Cleveland Browns (5-11) - Troy McClure (RIP)
He made us laugh didn't he? Once on top of the world, Troy was booted out of the spotlight due to his paraphilia. The Browns went through a similar downturn in fortunes, though theirs was caused by a greedy owner who moved his team out of town rather than paraphilia. Right now, the Browns are in the stage where they're just starting to date Selma. Pretty soon, MacArthur Parker will be calling the Browns, saying things like "that Brady Quinn has made you sexy again!" and "that Kellen Winslow is just what we need to shake up Hollywood!" Hopefully for Browns fans, the story will end differently than it did for Troy, and frankly, I think it will. Just not this season. In a different division, the Browns would probably be a seven, or even eight win team. In this division, they will be fighting for their lives. But in 2008, the tune will be "get your paws off me you dirty ape!"
26. St. Louis (5-11) - Artie Ziff
All flash, no finish. Artie was the Internet billionaire who lost it all when the bubble burst. From partying with Scottie Pippen and Jeneane Garofalo to watching the walls come down crashing around him, Ziff had too many highs, too many lows and simply not enough of the creamy middles that Homer likes so much. Stephen Jackson might be the best running back in football along with LDT, and Marc Bulger might be an elite quarterback with a number of weapons at his disposal. But when you're going full speed ahead, often you don't remember to watch your back. The Rams have no defense, and haven't since Lovie Smith graduated to Chicago in 2004. When your best player on defense is an alcoholic just one empty liquor bottle away from his next DUI, it becomes increasingly clear that all the flash in the world isn't going to amount to much at the end of the season.
25. New York Giants (5-11) - Chief Clancy Wiggum
Victories are rare in Chief Wiggum's world. Like Flanders once chastised, the last thing Wiggum got to the bottom of was a case of Malamars. Even when he does beat Rex Banner to the punch, he winds up putting the screws to Homer. When he catches Kirk Van Houten for kidnapping, it's only because he hears the crackling sound of Chinsy Pop, the world's cheapest popcorn, which he knows only because he too eats the shameful stuff. When the Giants find competent pieces for their attack, it often comes with a cost. Eli Manning cost them a bounty in draft picks and players. Plaxico Burress can stretch the field, but he doesn't play hard every down. Michael Strahan's career numbers match up with Lawrence Taylor's, but he's such a distraction and caricature that nobody notices. Owners of the third hardest schedule in 2007, saddled with what is almost certainly a lame duck coach and with ex-players like Tiki Barber still haunting the team with his talking-head potshots, it's going to be a long year for the New York football Giants.
24. Arizona Cardinals (6-10) - Edna Krabappel
"Bart, this is your teacher? I have to start going to Parent's Night." Oh, Mrs. Krabappel may be very sexy, but she comes with the baggage that any jilted lover does. Once again, the Cardinals are the toast of the fantasy football universe, with Larry Fitgerald and Anquan Boldin having established themselves among the fantasy elite, with Matt Leinart not far behind and the Edge still a reliable target. But like St. Louis, where' the defense? With yet another new coaching staff in a seemingly endless carousel, the Cards were facing an uphill battle already in 2007. But when they lost their best pass rusher, Chike Okeafor, for the season, the task is now almost insurmountable. However, with Levi Brown at left tackle, and Ken Whisenhunt hopefully doing for Leinart what he did for Ben Roethlisberger, 2008 finally could be the year that Arizona puts everything together.
23. Oakland Raiders (6-10) - Grandpa Simpson
He's annoying, he's a pain in your butt, but every once in awhile he hatches a worthwhile scheme (like the Simpson & Son aphrodisiac). The Raiders have the opposite problem that the Cards and Rams do, they have little offense to go with a killer defense. Generally, you'd rather have the killer defense, so that's good news for residents of the Black Hole. And with a little luck, perhaps Duante Culpepper to Ronald Curry can become a dynamite combo, and either LaMont Jordan, Dominic Rhodes or Michael Bush can be the answer at running back. Until then, the biggest story in Raidersville will likely be whether or not JaMarcus Russell is going to sign with the silver and black. Until then, they'll just be the crazy old man rambling on the sideline, hoisting onions on their belt.
22. Buffalo Bills (6-10) - Hans Moleman
Can't do much right, no one seems to know he's alive. When he gets water splashed on him by others and they laugh, he can't even stomach the backbone to get upset, lamenting simply "I'm glad to have shared in their fun." Indeed the Bills have shared in the fun of others this past decade, watching as everyone (except for the Texans) in the AFC has made the playoffs but them. Generally, when a team loses four of its best players in one offseason - as the Bills did this offseason when they lost Nate Clements, Willis McGahee, London Fletcher-Baker and Takeo Spikes - it would be a major story about which analysts would churn out column inch after column inch. When it happens in Buffalo, everyone shrugs their collective shoulders. Where have you gone, Jim Kelly?
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) - Principal Seymour Skinner
Like the Bucs and Jon Gruden, Principal Skinner always thinks that salvation is just a quick fix away. Whether it's striking oil under the school, reaping the proceeds from the lottery or tricking Lisa Simpson into spilling the beans about her cheating to the "fake" comptroller, Seymour is always up to something. The same goes for the Bucs. Rather than admitting that they are in a downturn, and that they should give Chris Simms a year to get things sorted out and then really build around him in 2008, Gruden instead imported free agent graybeards like Jeff Garcia and Joey Galloway. They will bring the Bucs back to respectability, but they will be hard pressed to help the Bucs regain their now forgotten championship swagger.
20. Dallas Cowboys (7-9) - "Diamond" Joe Quimby
I suppose Rich Texan would work too, but that just seems way too easy. Always in the news, always full of themselves and never aware that they're headed for a fall, Quimby and the Cowboys have much in common. They don't realize that there's ANOTHER election this November or that their schedule is the fifth hardest in the league. All they see when they look in the mirror are those pearly whites, bulging muscles and the arrogance that comes with being on top of the world for so long. "Diamond" Joe hasn't received his comeuppance yet, but the Cowboys certainly will this year. Get ready for tons of "what if the Cowboys had drafted Brady Quinn?" stories come January.
19. Minnesota Vikings (7-9) - Maggie Simpson
Minnesota is the team you never hear about, but you know that they're there. Who's playing quarterback? Is it still Randall Cunningham? Or Brad Johnson? Or Randall Johnson? No, this year it's Tavaris Jackson, although at 44, Cunningham might do just as well as Jackson will this season. Though they are backed by a very strong run defense and a burgeoning rushing attack, the Purple People Eaters will nevertheless miss Mike Tomlin, who has moved on to coach the Pittsburgh Steelers, and an incredibly unreliable receiving corps will make Jackson look worse than he is. And he won't be very good at all. All told, it will likely be another faceless season that fades into the background. Kind of like Maggie.
18. Washington Redskins (8-8) - Marge Simpson
Marge is loyal, and above moral reproach. When she was wrongfully locked away in prison for one month, the town realized how much they missed her and altered a statue of Jimmy Carter into her likeness. No one erected a statue (that I know of) to commemorate Joe Gibbs when he retired to focus full-time on NASCAR, but he was certainly missed in a Redskins front office run amok. Since returning, he has moved with the same pace as Marge - slow and steady. Jason Campbell was probably ready to start full-time last year at QB, but Gibbs waited the majority of the season before plugging him in. And while the Skins made the playoffs in '05, changes were needed, but came slowly. They still aren't coming fast - the Skins have plenty of star power but little depth. After a solid '07 campaign with Campbell at the helm, they will hopefully find that depth, and build towards even better things in 2008.
17. New York Jets (8-8) - Martin Prince, Jr.
A fat, sniveling know-it-all who has the brains to rule the world, but certainly not the charisma. Wait, am I talking about Eric Mangini or Martin Prince, Jr.? Well, both really. The New York media machine had dubbed him the "Mangenius", and hoisted celebrity status on the former Pats assistant, but the media is still in its honeymoon period. Like all honeymoons in New York, it will be short lived. The Jets made improvements heading into 2007, but they also played worse than their record indicated in 2006. Football Outsiders' DVOA statistic is the most innovative stat that translates what we see on the field into meaningful numbers. Overall, a team wants a positive DVOA for a season or a game, expressed in a percentage. Last season, the Jets won two games when they had a negative DVOA, and won two others with a DVOA of less than 7%. Conversely though, they deserved to lose the games that they lost - there were no positive DVOA losses for the Jets in 2006. Knock 2-3 wins off their 2006 total and they end up with 7 or 8 wins, rather than 10. This season, the Jets will improve, but because they got some lucky bounces last year, it will APPEAR that they are doing worse. 2008 is the year they will put it all together. Or like Martin's soap box racer, it could just be the year when their world goes careening out of control, because their know-it-all coach can't turn his book smarts into production on the field.
16. Tennessee Titans (8-8) - Krusty the Clown
Sometimes he has his act together, sometimes he doesn't. But he's always there. Krusty the Clown has been smart enough to license his name and make a large fortune and later to fake his own death, but in between he was dumb enough to bet on the Washington Generals and squander everything. Jeff Fisher has been smart enough to hitch his wagon to Steve McNair and Eddie George, but dumb enough to hitch it to Pacman Jones and Joe Nedney. Sometimes, like with the "Music City Miracle", he's been very fortunate, but other times, like with "The Tackle", he's been very unfortuntate. So which category will the Vince Young era fit in? That remains to be seen, but my bet would be in the "fortunate" category. Though Pacman's suspension and a host of unproven players surrounding Young on offense will prevent the Titans from fully making the leap into contention this year, the future is still bright in the Music City. Like it reads on the state's welcome sign, Tennessee'n is Tennebelievin'.
15. Seattle Seahawks (9-7) - Cookie Kwan
Cookie Kwan, like the Seahawks, is number one on the west side. But Cookie never ventured out of her neighborhood, and the Seahawks rarely do either. The Seahawks have made the playoffs four straight years, and won the NFC West three straight years, but the 'Hawks are just 3-5 in the playoffs, and in only one season did they advance to the conference championship. This is the year when the 'Hawks will not be number one on the west side. Shaun Alexander is aging rapidly, as is the club's offensive line. Conventional wisdom holds that if Seattle can stay healthy this season, they have the talent to walk away with the division. But real wisdom holds that a successful NFL team is not one that is loaded from players 1-15, but rather one that is balanced from 1-53. The Seahawks team composition leans more towards the former, and this is the year that that takes a bite out of their playoff chances.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) - Moe Szyslak
Every year there is a team that is bound for glory, if they can just stay out of their own way. Football Outsiders projections tabbed the Jags as having the second best projection in football this season behind only the Patriots. In addition to a rock-solid defense and evolving running attack, one of the strong points for the Jags was their quarterback Byron Leftwich. At the peak age of 27 when quarterbacks historically have their best season and usually earn a trip to Hawaii, Leftwich is primed for a breakout year. Unfortunately for Jacksonville fans, he will do it with another team. Earlier this week, Jags coach Jack Del Rio named backup and lesser quarterback David Garrard as his starter. Such a poor decision is akin to the type of chicanery Moe is known for. Whether it's opening Uncle Moe's Family Feedbag, killing Alfalfa, not selling the Flaming Moe's recipe, stealing Shamu, buying only one inch of bulletproof glass, or giving away soap opera plot lines, you can always count on Moe to make the wrong decision. Same as Jack "Chopping Wood" Del Rio.
13. Denver Broncos (9-7) - Comic Book Guy, aka Jeff Albertson
The Comic Book Guy thinks he knows everything. He is all alone in the world in the power of his knowledge, but he also runs a very successful business. Mike Shanahan thinks he knows everything, even calling himself "The Ultimate Leader" in his own biography. Like the Comic Book Guy, he also runs a very successful business, as the Broncos will likely sell out their games as long as Shanahan is at the helm. But the Comic Book Guy eventually has a heart attack. It doesn't kill him, but it certainly forces him to re-evaluate things. The Broncos were forced to reevaluate things after they missed the playoffs last year, something that gave their fans a collective heart attack. Gone is much of the old guard who led the Broncos to the AFC Championship just two years ago - Al Wilson, Jake Plummer, Tatum Bell, etc. Newcomers like Travis "the babymaker" Henry, Jay Cutler and a slew of new defensive lineman are supposed to lead the Broncos back to the promised land. But Cutler faces an uphill battle. Quick - name a successful Vanderbilt University alumni in the NFL. On offense, the list is nonexistent. Shanahan is hoping that Cutler is the best. quarterback. ever, but history dictates that he will fall short of that mark, and he will take the Broncos playoff hopes with him.
12. Carolina Panthers (9-7, NFC Wild Card) - Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
Apu is an ingrained American immigrant - the Panthers are an ingrained NFL immigrant. Apu has a very strong work ethic, as do the Panthers, an ethic instilled in them by their head coach John Fox. Apu doesn't have all the angles figured out in trying to take care of his eight children, and Panthers QB Jake Delhomme doesn't have all the angles figured out in trying to take care of his ten teammates on offense. With too little impact from the running game, the Panthers were too often forced into third and long last season. Eventually, this ruined their season; their hopes crumbled when a four game losing second half losing streak allowed New Orleans to leapfrog over them and land the Panthers on the outside looking in. This year, the Panthers will improve ever so slightly, squeaking back into the playoffs as a Wild Card team. Unfortunately, they won't get past that, and decisions will need to be made in the offseason as to what direction the Panthers will take in 2008 and beyond.
11. San Francisco 49ers (10-6, NFC West Champs) - Squeaky Voiced Teen
The 49ers are still the young punks at the dance, good enough to know they belong, but not good enough to know what to do once they get inside. We learned at the end of the Simpsons Movie that the Squeaky Voiced Teen actually has a film school degree. He is going places - eventually. But right now, he's only managed to get his start in the industry. The Niners are the same. The rapidly improving nucleus of Frank Gore, Alex Smith and Vernon Davis, combined with savvy veteran additions like Nate Clements and Darrell Jackson have San Fran's star on the rise once again. In 2008, they will add even more talent to the mix, and with Patrick Willis and Jason Hill rounding into shape alongside the three offensive linchpins, the Niners will be a Super Bowl contender once again.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, AFC Wild Card) - Dr. Julius Hibbert
His diagnoses are always a buzzkill, but he laughs at them anyways. It's the kind of sense of humor that only a Steelers fan can appreciate, delighting in the misery of others. The Steelers under Bill Cowher certainly heaped a lot of misery and misfortune on their opponents, and with bright young defensive mind Mike Tomlin taking the reins, that trend is sure to continue. In a loaded AFC North they won't get all the way to the cream of the crop in 2007, and jettisoning veterans like Joey Porter will let the team find a new identity under Tomlin and Roethlisberger. Come 2008, the Steel City will be waiving their terrible towels for a Super Bowl contender once again. This year, they will have to be content to stay on the fringes of playoff competition.
9. New Orleans Saints (10-6, NFC South Champs) - Bart Simpson
The fun-loving scamp that is always going a mile a minute most closely fits to the Saints personality. Behind a high powered offense, the Saints are fun to watch, and they have inspired a city, much like Bart inspired Springfield with "the power." And though the Saints defense betrayed them in the playoffs last season, it was much better during the second half than it was during the first half. With the team's biggest defensive weakness - cornerback - receiving a big boost in the free agent signing of Jason David, the only question for the Saints D is can it stay healthy throughout 2007. If it can, the Saints could bombard the competition like Bart did with so many water balloons. If not, the Saints will end up battered and bruised, like when Bart dislocated his elbow and knocked himself unconscious. Either way, it promises to be an another exciting season down in the Crescent City.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6, AFC Wild Card) - C. Montgomery Burns
Like Mr. Burns, the Bengals seem to have no moral compass whatsoever, doing whatever necessary, but more importantly hiring whomever necessary to get the job done. Of course, that kind of thinking doesn't always pay off, as the Bengals and their record number of entries in the police blotter demonstrated last year. Also like Mr. Burns, the Bengals have been incredibly stubborn. Though their defense had more holes than a chain link fence last year, Cincinnati did little other than draft cornerback Leon Hall. Until they see the error of their ways, they will remain a domineering team that can't put the final pieces of world domination together.
7. Green Bay Packers (11-5, NFC Wild Card, NFC CHAMPIONS) - Homer Simpson
Homer Simpson might be the very definition of the phrase "Wild Card." No city better fits Homer than Green Bay, a city where a man can eat all the bratwurst and drink all the beer he possibly can. Bret Favre has a lot of Homer in him as well, the old-fashioned gunslinger who isn't concerned with small things like stats. Bret just wants to do the Lambeau Leap, something you know Homer would enjoy, as long as he had Principal Skinner's back to launch himself from (like when he dunked during a pickup basketball game). Like Homer, the Packers are about to go on a wild ride through the NFC, falling just short of Chicago for the NFC North crown, but getting their revenge in the NFC Championship game. And when the Packers ultimately fall short in the Super Bowl like Homer did in his title bout with Drederick Tatum, they won't be devastated or upset. They'll simply be happy that their gunslinger got one final ride into the sunset, and that he made it out alive to tell the story. And then they'll get loaded!
6. Chicago Bears (11-5, NFC North Champs) - Lou
Lovie Smith is a very intelligent man, a great leader who has transformed the Bears into a championship club seemingly overnight. But like police sergeant Lou, his fortunes are ever-tied to his less competent partner. A head coach can guide his team, but the most important player on the field is the quarterback. In Rex Grossman, as in Chief Wiggum, Lovie and Lou have hitched their wagons to someone who is probably going to come up short in the end. The Bears will still have a dominant defense this year, and if Cedric Benson can stay upright for a whole season, he and the "other" Adrian Peterson will combine to give Chicago an excellent running game. However, the season still rests on the impulsive right arm of "Sexy Rexy". While he will likely be better in 2007, simply because he couldn't be any worse than he was down the stretch in 2006, when it comes down to it, who do you trust - Grossman or Favre? For that simple reason, the Packers will end up besting the Bears and advancing to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLII. With Lance Briggs seemingly out the door at the end of the season, it could be the last chance that Brian Urlacher and the Bears D has to fulfill their dreams.
5. San Diego Chargers (11-5, AFC West Champs) - Hank Scorpio
Blazing a trail of glory, and having enough money to own the Denver Broncos, Hank Scorpio was a once-in-a-series character, though he was sort of reincarnated for The Movie. His schemes are brilliant on paper, but lacking in execution. The Chargers, behind the incredible wattage of stars like LDT, Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, Marcus McNeill, Jamal Williams and steroid users Shawne Merriman and Luis Castillo, are formidable paper tigers. With Norv Turner now at the helm however, the Bolts will continue to look much better on paper than they do on the field. Turner is infamous for his lack of motivational skills as a coach, as evidenced by listless squads with Washington and Oakland. Rivers will make strides, and Vincent Jackson and Eric Parker should emerge as a very good WR combo to team with Gates and LDT, but in the end the Chargers will not be able to harness the little things that champions do.
4. Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North Champs) - Nelson Muntz
The big bully. Nelson, along with Jimbo, Dolph and Kearney, are the bad boys of Springfield Elementary. Either "Fat Tony" or "Snake" would fit for the Ravens as well, but Nelson's taunting "Ha Ha's" and "stop hitting yourself" cut to the core of what the Baltimore Ravens truly are - bullies that like doling out the punishment. They make sure you know you are being punished, and revel in it almost to the point where they take their eyes off the prize. This season, the Ravens have not taken their eyes off the prize. They traded for Willis McGahee and believe they have replacements for linebacker Adalius Thomas and tackle Tony Pashos. With Mark Clayton emerging alongside Derrick Mason and Todd Heap, the Ravens actually have formidable aerial weapons now as well. Combined with McGahee, McNair and a dominant line, the Ravens are primed for another run to glory. It will be a run that will take them to the AFC Championship, but their blue collar style will ultimately fall short in the end.
3. Indianapolis Colts (12-4, AFC South Champs) - Ned Flanders
He's so good that you hate him. Stupid Flanders. Stupid Peyton. Oh sure, you laugh at each one on Sundays, Flanders in primetime, and Manning seemingly every commercial break, but they are both formidable foes that kill you with kindness and kill you with efficiency. Just like Flanders is always flanked by his robotic like sons Rodd & Todd, so too is Manning flanked by his robotic receivers Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Unfortunately the Colts of last year are the Colts of this year. Last year, they beat the Ravens in the divisional round of the playoffs by a mere nine points. Their powerhouse offense only outgained Baltimore's by 17 yards. This season, with Baltimore closing the gap offensively and Indy not closing the gap defensively, Indy's time is up. Fortunately for them, they won the Super Bowl last year and are in the Bill Simmons' patented five year grace period.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-4, NFC East Champs) - Rev. Timothy Lovejoy
Rev. Lovejoy is a pillar of the community, or so it would seem. Beneath his seemingly sincere love and care for the citizens of Springfield's as its spiritual purveyor, Lovejoy is actually a bad apple. He instructs his dog to poop on Flanders' lawn, gives apathetic advice to callers and indulges his wife Helen, who is the town gossiphound. The Eagles carry a similar, empty veneer. They have been perennial contenders in the '00's, but behind each success story there is drama boiling underneath the surface. Whether it's T.O., the drafting of Kevin Kolb, Andy Reid's delinquent sons, there's always drama in Philly. Fortunately, like the show, the forecast is always sunny in Philadelphia as well. The Eagles still have the league's most talented squad, and assuming QB Donovan McNabb can keep on his feet for 17 weeks, Philly will be the Super Bowl favorite come January. Running up against the buzzsaw that will be the Green Bay Packers will certainly be no cause for alarm, but that doesn't mean the alarm won't be sounded anyways. After all, it's Philly. Somewhere, Rev. Lovejoy is nodding his head knowingly.
1. New England Patriots (15-1, AFC East Champs, AFC CHAMPIONS, SUPER BOWL XLII CHAMPIONS) - Lisa Simpson
You really want to hate her. You do. You know you do. Sure, she's eight years old, but she just knows everything! How is that possible? But she always has an answer, and it's always the right answer. Not only that, but she makes it count when the chips are down. Win a spelling bee? Check. Climb the "Eliminator"? Check. Become a ruthless hockey goalie? Check. Lisa's conquests are too long to name here, as are those of Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Patriots. Loaded up for another title run in 2007, the Patriots won't even feel the brunt of losing Rodney Harrison and Richard Seymour for the first four and six weeks of the season, respectively. The Pats drafted Brandon Meriweather as Harrison insurance, and Jarvis Green and Mike Wright are more than capable of filling in for Seymour. When Seymour in particular comes off the PUP list in Week 7, he will be fresh and ready for a rampage. Though the Pats schedule isn't a cakewalk, the team simply has no weakness this season. They are deep enough that future Hall of Famer Junior Seau doesn't even have to start at linebacker, and the Pats average age at every position is 30 or younger. Like Lisa Simpson, Belichick and his team have all the angles figured out, and are smart enough to know how to execute those angles properly when they must. They won't win every game, losing in Week 6 at Dallas, but they will be as close to perfection as one can get in this modern NFL world.
APPENDIX:
PLAYOFFS
AFC:
#3 Baltimore beats #6 Pittsburgh
#4 Cincinnati beats #3 San Diego
#1 New England beats #4 Cincinnati
#3 Baltimore beats #2 Indianapolis
#1 New England beats #3 Baltimore
NFC:
#3 New Orleans beats #6 Carolina
#5 Green Bay beats #4 San Francisco
#5 Green Bay beats #1 Philadelphia
#2 Chicago beats #3 New Orleans
#5 Green Bay beats #2 Chicago
SUPER BOWL XLII:
New England 27 - Green Bay 15
MVP: Tedy Bruschi (in his final game)
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