The Boys Are Back In Town

Great 8-1 win today. Too many good things happened. Wake on a roll. Good outing for Mantei. Just a great day to be at Fenway Park. I'm supremely jealous of all 36,000 or so who got to attend today's festivities at the greatest little ballpark there is. Top 10 moments of the day, Letterman style:

10) A-Fraud's errors. When he made the one that led to runs 5,6, and 7 I was on the phone with a Rockies customer who exclaimed, "Oh the billionaire made an error? Aww, I'm so sad for him!" Ha.

9) Joe Castiglione on the field. Who's better than Joe Castiglione? If there is, I'd like to meet 'em.

8) No speeches from the ownership or Theo. They made it about the players, and I enjoyed that.

7) You knew that Dr. Charles Steinberg had a trick up his sleeve. Today it was "Davvvvveyyyyy, Davey Roberts, King of the Wild Frontier!" Did I mention I love Ellis Burks also? I do.

6) Bill Russell's first appearance at Fenway in 40 YEARS! That's awesome.

5) The moment of silence for Dick Radatz. Several years ago, when I worked at The Souvenir Store, The Monster was at the store for one of the live feeds on WEEI, and I had a chance to meet the man. Great guy. I was really sad at the way he passed. Given his girth, I suppose something like that was inevitable, but that doesn't make it right either. He was the original closer. RIP.

4) Terry Francona hugging Tedy Bruschi after the Ceremonial First Pitch. Glad to see them both back. If anyone doubts that Tedy Bruschi won't do what is necessary to get back on the the field this fall, then shame on you. Tedy Bruschi is the toughest man alive.

3) "Do the Mirabelli" laying the smack down on the Chipmunk, er the Moose. The game ended and the party really started when he slammed that first pitch out. Do the Mirabelli!

2) The cheers for Mariano Rivera. And Mo's reaction. Priceless. I'm glad he reacted the way he did cause if he got pissed and flipped off the crowd, I would have feared for his safety. But he looked like he genuinely enjoyed it. Good for him.

1) Pesky and Yaz raising the flag in centerfield. The only thing that could have made it better was if Teddy Ballgame was there to help out, but I am certain he was smiling down on all of us.

Stay Positive

Rockies broadcaster George Frazier summed it up succinctly when he said after today's game:

"The Rockies should be 3-1, not 1-3."

So why are they 1-3? Simple. Scott Dohmann can't keep his fastball down in the zone. Little 'ol Michael Tucker tore the Rockies heart out today, jacking a first-pitch fastball into McCovey Cove, spoiling Jamey Wright's masterful (except for 5 walks) start.

Last night was even worse. The Rockies battled back from a six run deficit, only to have Dohmann blow it by giving up the game-winner to Marquis Grissom. To be fair, Dohmann did not create that problem. But he did create today's problem.

Brought in with one man on and two men out, Dohmann created a bases-loaded situation. He was squeezed a bit by the ump, but that is not an excuse. It should have been lock-down time. Dohmann simply didn't get it done.

The Rockies, to their credit, are not screwing around. Allan Simpson, while he has good stuff, was a disaster the other night. They traded him for Jose Acevedo, who at the very least should be able to chew up more innings in the middle of the game. This, to me was the biggest problem with the makeup of the Rockies bullpen before, lots of short relievers, no long relievers. With the team apparently turning to BK to be the closer, that eliminated him as a long set up guy as well. Acevedo should be able to fill that need. I think this probably means they put Bobby Seay in the Springs, but we'll see. That is what I would do. I think Seay is nice, certainly more useful than Reggie Taylor, but if Brian Fuentes is not the closer, there is little need for 3 lefty short relievers in the pen. Having Acevedo creates a much better mix.

In any event, Dohmann needs to do a better job keeping the ball down in the zone. He almost cost the Rox Opening Day, and he helped cost us both games vs. the Giants.

World Series Preview

If you read my respective AL and NL Previews, you should know that I have the Red Sox and Phillies representing their respective leagues in the World Series. Much of the advantage, unfortunately, will come down to the All-Star game, as the outcome of this game sadly determines home-field advantage for the World Series. As I mentioned before, I think the AL has the goods on the NL again this season. Of course, a lot of that depends on who plays in the All-Star game, and who has an unexpected first half, but for the sake of simplicity I am going to assume that the AL wins the All-Star game, giving the Red Sox the home-field advantage in the playoffs. Let's go game-by-game, assuming that the matchups will break so that #1 pitches against #1, #2 vs. #2, and so forth:

Game 1: PHI Jon Lieber at BOS Curt Schilling
Game 2: PHI Brett Myers at BOS David Wells
Game 3: BOS Matt Clement at PHI Randy Wolf
Game 4: BOS Wade Miller at PHI Cory Lidle
Game 5: BOS Bronson Arroyo at PHI Gavin Floyd
Game 6: PHI Jon Lieber at BOS Curt Schilling

This is how it should look. However, when Boston gets up 3-1, winning games 1, 3, and 4, Philly will get desperate, changing the matchups to:

Game 5: BOS Bronson Arroyo at PHI Jon Lieber
Game 6: PHI Randy Wolf/Gavin Floyd at BOS Curt Schilling

This ploy will work in game 5, as the Phillies will send it back to Boston. There the Red Sox will get the chance to do what they did not last year: celebrate a World Series clinching win at Fenway, in front of the faithful. As the green weirdo on the cars.com ad says, "it's a thing of beauty."

Brett Myers will come of age, outdueling David Wells in Game 2, and it will be a close series, but the Red Sox are the deepest team in baseball, and that will help them immensely as the series progresses.

NL Preview

If you missed the AL Preview, it's right here. If you weren't prepared for the AL Preview, well, as they say in Hollywood, "you ain't seen nothing yet". Let's get right to it.

NL East Record GB
Phillie 91-71 --
Braves** 87-75 4
Mets 85-77 6
Marlins 83-79 8
Nationals 65-97 26

Two things to note here. One, someone finally wrestles away the NL East from Atlanta, and that someone is Philly. Second, I have the Phillies as the best team in the NL this year, and that would make them the Wild Card in the AL, which tells you all you need to know about the balance of the leagues.

Why will this finally be Philly's year?
1) The media doesn't have Larry Bowa to beat around anymore.
2) Eric Milton and Kevin Milwood were replaced by Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle. While they are relatively similar in talent, Lieber and Lidle figure to be healthier and steadier than Millwood and Milton. This should help a great deal.
3) Chase Utley and Ryan Madson get further established further in the Majors.
4) Gavin Floyd emerges
5) They have Jose Offerman!

Ok, so maybe #5 is a joke, but the Phillies are a very good team, and the Braves will not be able to hang. The combo of Mondesi and Jordan isn't going to last for even a half season. That could get ugly, or it could lead the Braves to put Andy Marte in at 3B and push Chipper Jones to the OF. Let's hope for option B, but I still don't think it will be enough to overtake the Phils, either for the division or for the NL crown. But they will hang around enough to make it interesting.

Count me among the minority in the "Marlins are overrated" camp. I just don't see it. This is a team wasting roster spots on Jeff Conine, Damion Easley, Chris Aguila, Lenny Harris, Juan Encarnacion, and Brian Moehler. Moehler came out of nowhere, and BP doesn't even have a PECOTA projection for him. Their bullpen doesn't impress me either, there's not one guy outside of "closer" Guillermo Mota who I'd want on a team I was building. There is a lot of very good top shelf talent on this Marlins team, but the rest of the team doesn't have much to offer. In a tight race, I'd rather Placido Polanco than Damion Easley, or Jason Michaels over Chris Aguila.

NL Central Record GB
Brewers 87-75 --
Cardinals 86-76 1
Cubs 83-79 4
Reds 75-87 12
Astros 69-93 18
Pirates 68-94 19

Yes, those Brewers. The same Brewers whose mascot, Bernie, has a slide, and the same Brewers who have those fantastic sausage races. Yes, them. As I mentioned in my first article on Baseball Prospectus back in January (yes I really wrote it) the Brewers offense is going to be much better this year. This, along with a solid bullpen, a good rotation featuring Ben Sheets, Doug Davis, and Chris Capuano, and some breakdowns elsewhere in the division, add up to a Brewers division crown. You heard it here first.

The Cards will provide the toughest competition, but their Team Health Report was frightening. Only 2 of 17 players received green lights, and when those 2 guys are So Taguchi and Jeff Suppan, it reminds me of that old Sporty Thieves ditty - "Uh oh, those chicks ain't gettin nada". The Cards aren't chicks, but somewhere along the line injuries are going to play a role. The Cards front office does come up with some very nice trades, and that will have to be the case again this year. Baseball America ranked their farm system 30th out of 30 teams, and they will not find much help there.

Elsewhere, the Cubs will be slightly above average, but in the end will find a way to blow it. The Reds could be better if they keep Griffey and Kearns healthy, but as Homer likes to say "sweety that's a pretty big if". The Astros are barely going to be watchable, and the Pirates will not be. Poor senor Serbin, I mourn thee.

NL West Record GB
Rockies 85-77 --
Giants 85-77 --
Padres 82-80 3
Dodgers 78-84 7
D-Backs 69-93 16

This is truly a dismal group. To be sure, while I see the Brewers as a legitimate threat, there is a little bit of work-related bias in this Rockies selection. But not much. The Rockies are heading into this season with possibly their best rotation ever. Smart acquisitions for Mike Restovich and Bobby Seay have only solidified my thinking in the past week. The Rockies have a good risk/reward proposition with BK Kim, who looked great this past week. 4 innings, 4 baserunners, 6 ground balls vs. 3 fly balls = so far so good. In addition, the Rockies can look forward to a full year of Preston Wilson, and the emergence of young guns Matt Holliday, JD Closser, Brad Hawpe, and Clint Barmes. They're a young team that plays well together, enjoys each others company, and will be a tough beat.

Injuries to Barry Bonds and Moises Alou will make it an uphill climb for the Giants. That is nothing compared to the tap-dance act that Jim Tracy will have managing a rotation that features wounded/battered pitchers Brad Penny, Eric Gagne, Odalis Perez, Wilson Alvarez, and Scott Erickson, they are going to have a tough time competing, let alone winning. It is a testament to Jim Tracy and Paul DePodesta that I have them pegged for 78 wins at all.

The Padres will come up just short, as they have too many players who are on the back nine of their careers. They also signed Woody Williams. I don't know why either. The D-Backs are thinking that Russ Ortiz is as good as Randy Johnson. They also think that their pathetic offense was one Troy Glaus away from respectability. They're wrong on both accounts. Arizona also lost their two best offensive players in Shea Hillenbrand and Steve Finley. Troy Glaus will help with some of that, but the D-Backs off-season was a classic case of activity being misconstrued as progress. They will suck, many much sucking.

On to the playoffs:

NLDS
1 Phillies vs. 3 Rockies
Phillies in 4 games

2 Brewers vs. 4 Braves
Braves in 4 games

NLCS
1 Phillies vs. 4 Braves
Phillies over Braves in 7 games

The Rockies and Brewers magical rides will end quickly. The Rockies will get one win out of 2006 ace Jeff Francis, but otherwise will not have enough in the end to beat the Phils. The Braves veteran moxie will be good for the edge over Milwaukee. This sets up the NL East matchup in the NLCS. This will be a great matchup. In the end, I just like the Phillies this year. I'm sure I could come up with a better explanation, but I just think it boils down to that in the end.

AL Preview

Yes I know it's a week late. Trust me when I tell you my opinions on the season have not changed at all this week. Here we go:

AL East Record GB
Red Sox 101-61 --
Yankees 90-72 11
Orioles 80-82 21
Blue Jays 77-85 24
D-Rays 67-95 34

Yes, the Sox are that good. They will be the best team in baseball. That is my boldest prediction right there, out of the way early. The Red Sox depth compared to the Yankees depth is laughable. The Yankees had bad depth last year, and it will only be worse this year. Last year the Yankees had a good 5th starter in Brad Halsey as their 6th starter, and were able to bring El Duque back into the fray in July. In addition, they had Tanyon Sturtze. This year? Just Sturtze. Halsey was traded to Arizona and El Duque signed with the Chi Sox. Loaiza, the man brought over in exchange for Jose Contreras, gone to Washington. What makes this lack of depth even more startling is the fact that last year the Yanks had horses like Jon Lieber and Javy Vazquez. They replaced them with Jaret Wright and Randy Johnson. Johnson will probably be fine, but Jaret Wright will always have a balky shoulder. In other words, the Yanks will likely have a greater need for a 6th starter. If they have to pull Sturtze out of the bullpen to be a starter, then who will be the long reliever when Sturtze gets killed as a starter? Answer: no one.

The Red Sox meanwhile have 7, count 'em 7 Major League starters: Schilling, Wells, Clement, Arroyo, Wakefield, Miller, and Halama. Hopefully Wakefield and Halama will be in the bullpen for the majority of the season. Schilling will be back next week, and Miller is now due back more than a month ahead of schedule, in early to mid May. The Sox depth here, as well an on their bench, will propel them to an unprecedented season, and a repeat World Championship.

The rest of the AL East is undistinguished. The Blue Jays are the same middling team they were last year. Hopefully the increase in payroll they will see in the next three years will make them competitive once again. But Roy Halladay is definitely back. It's good to see. The Orioles will be average again, as somehow they managed to come up empty searching for pitchers yet again. The D-Rays screwed themselves by demoting BJ Upton and Jonny Gomes before the season started. They will be awful yet again.

AL Central Record GB
Twins 92-70 --
Indians** 91-71 1
Tigers 79-83 13
White Sox 74-88 18
Royals 66-96 26

What are those asterisks next to the Indians name you ask? Well, those asterisks indicate the Indians as my Wild Card team. Yes, that's right, I have the Yankees missing the playoffs for the first time in a decade. There is a lot to like about both the Twins and the Indians. The Twins retained the players they were supposed to: Johan Santana, Brad Radke, Jacque Jones, and ditched the players who were not worthy: Christian Guzman and Corey Koskie. The Twins have a lot of offensive muscle all of a sudden, with upgrades at SS in rookie Jason Bartlett, C in Joe Mauer (finally healthy, we think...), and a full season from 1B Justin Morneau. 3B Mike Cuddyer figures to be as good as Koskie, if not better. And with my good Rockies' friend Lynn's grandson Jesse Crain in the bullpen all season, they figure to be better there as well. A fourth straight division championship, and a lot of great stories from Lynn, are definitely within sight.

The Indians will nip at their heels all season long this season, as opposed to the 4-5 months that they did last year. Upgrades to their bench, bullpen, and back end of the rotation figure to bring them the improvements they need. The ninety-one wins would be an 11 win increase over last year, which may seem a bit high, but the Indians bullpen was truly terrible last year. I believe that if they can keep Wickman healthy for the majority of the year, the additions of Arthur Rhodes and a full season of the "new" Bobby Howry should bode well for the Tribe in '05.

Elsewhere, the Royals were a disaster this year, and don't look much better this year. Hopefully Denny Bautista, Zack Greinke, Calvin Pickering, David DeJesus, and Ruben Gotay can give the Royals something on which to build. The White Sox got significantly worse, both in talent and philosophy. This is unfortunate, because the White Sox have a very nice front office, particularly Rick Hahn and Roland Hemond. But when you commit yourself to a run-run-run strategy without the necessary people to execute it, then you're in for a world of hurt. The Tigers are a great sleeper, as you can expect to see Jeremy Bonderman become a bona-fide ace, and Mike Maroth become the Joe Dumars to Bonderman's Isiah. The Tigers have to hope however, that Magglio Ordonez and Troy Percival don't disintegrate, and that Carlos Pena and Brandon Inge's retain their improvements from 2004. Also, look for Omar Infante to have a minor-breakout season.

AL West Record GB
Athletics 93-69 --
Angels 87-75 6
Rangers 83-79 10
Mariners 72-90 21

Yup, the A's again. No Hudson? No Mulder? No problem. The A's got better this off-season. In the worst case, the A's will be slightly worse as a pitching staff this year. They have a significant upside with all of their young pitchers, and can be much better than last year. What's more, they will do it at a fraction of the cost.

The Angels will again be good, but not as good. Adding a player with a translated career line of .262/.309/.403 (AVG/OBP/SLG) isn't the smartest move, but that is what the Halos did by adding Orlando Cabrera. O-Cabs is a likeable guy, but the bottom line is that he sucks. David Eckstein, at .285/.357/.365 wasn't much better, if at all, but at least he got on base at a respectable rate to set the table for the mashers. Plus, he cost about half as much. Dallas McPherson is expected to take over for Troy Glaus, but to date his back has had other ideas.

The Rangers will also see a bit of a drop-off, although I like them a little better than the 83 wins I have them pegged for. However, the Mariners nine extra wins this year have to come against someone, and thus the Angels and Rangers suffer a bit as a result. The Mariners will still not be good. As you may have seen in my article on Baseball Prospectus, the Mariners rotation is going to suck hard-core. Their offense, thankfully, will be improved. Just not enough to make them respectable.

So that's the regular season. The playoffs shape up thusly:

ALDS Result
1 Red Sox vs. 4 Indians
Red Sox in 3 games

2 Athletics vs. 3 Twins
Twins in 5 games

ALCS
1 Red Sox vs. 3 Twins
Red Sox in 6 games

The Red Sox exact some more revenge for the Indians crushing victories of '95 and '98, as the Indians are simply overmatched in their first playoff run since Pedro and Troy O'Leary laid the smack down in one of the ten greatest playoff games in MLB history. The A's once again find a way to not get it done in the first round. The Schilling vs. Santana matchup will not happen in the ALCS as they will need Santana in Game 5, and that, along with Manny and Papi, and better managerial decisions by Francona vs. Gardenhire, will be keys in the Red Sox victory and return trip to the World Series.

NL Preview coming up after I walk to the library with my gorgeous bride.

Finally...Paul...has come back to the blog

I'm sure you all missed me this week, about as much as you miss Hitler. Anyways, for those that were looking forward to my early season thoughts, I apologize. Standing on my feet for the better part of 12 hours during Opening Day on Monday took a bigger toll on me than I thought it would. Here are some Opening Week thoughts:

1) Pedro was amazing on Monday.
2) The Rockies had a great win on Opening Day, followed by two heart-breakers. Both games were winnable, and last night's should have been won. The Rox got screwed on the "home run" by Jason Ellison, and the first-base umpire buying Omar Vizquel's slide. He was out. Those two plays cost the Rockies two runs. Finals score: Giants 10 - Rockies 8.
3) Some great games during the opening week. 1-0, 12 innings Pirates vs. Padres game was chief among them. Jake Peavy looked great. The Rockies Opening Day win, the Opening Day Mets vs. Reds game, last night's Tigers vs. Indians game, with David Riske working into and then out of a bases loaded jam in the 8th, the Opening Day 1-0 duel between Mark Buehrle and Jake Westbrook, the 2-1 13 inning affair between the Braves and Marlins, the 12-inning affair between Texas and Anaheim, and of course the Red Sox' 5-run 9th inning vs. Mariano Rivera on Wednesday. And on and on...
4) With each coming year, I am more and more astounded at the activity in my fantasy leagues during the first week. Calm down people! Give guys a chance to play into their seasons! I understand digging for a shortstop or third basemen when Bobby Crosby and Garrett Atkins come up lame, or other such injury replacements. Other than that, you shouldn't have to juggle too much in the first week. If you do, then you had a crappy draft.
5) More to come in about an hour with my AL preview.

Opening Day

I can't possibly let Opening Night ruin the splendor of Opening Day. For those worrywarts in Red Sox Nation: fear not. David Wells pitches to contact, and when the air is cold and damp, as Pedro has informed us so often in the past, your balls just don't break (ha). Wells will be fine. Johnson's stuff was off too, and though he worked his way out of some jams, we had some very good AB's vs. him.

In any event, here is the link to my new column at Baseball Prospectus. It's free, so be sure to check it out.

Also, in case anyone cares, in addition to attending/working today's Padres vs. Rockies game, I am TIVOing the Mets vs. Reds and Brewers vs. Pirates. Those seem like the most intriguing early matchups.