AL Preview

Yes I know it's a week late. Trust me when I tell you my opinions on the season have not changed at all this week. Here we go:

AL East Record GB
Red Sox 101-61 --
Yankees 90-72 11
Orioles 80-82 21
Blue Jays 77-85 24
D-Rays 67-95 34

Yes, the Sox are that good. They will be the best team in baseball. That is my boldest prediction right there, out of the way early. The Red Sox depth compared to the Yankees depth is laughable. The Yankees had bad depth last year, and it will only be worse this year. Last year the Yankees had a good 5th starter in Brad Halsey as their 6th starter, and were able to bring El Duque back into the fray in July. In addition, they had Tanyon Sturtze. This year? Just Sturtze. Halsey was traded to Arizona and El Duque signed with the Chi Sox. Loaiza, the man brought over in exchange for Jose Contreras, gone to Washington. What makes this lack of depth even more startling is the fact that last year the Yanks had horses like Jon Lieber and Javy Vazquez. They replaced them with Jaret Wright and Randy Johnson. Johnson will probably be fine, but Jaret Wright will always have a balky shoulder. In other words, the Yanks will likely have a greater need for a 6th starter. If they have to pull Sturtze out of the bullpen to be a starter, then who will be the long reliever when Sturtze gets killed as a starter? Answer: no one.

The Red Sox meanwhile have 7, count 'em 7 Major League starters: Schilling, Wells, Clement, Arroyo, Wakefield, Miller, and Halama. Hopefully Wakefield and Halama will be in the bullpen for the majority of the season. Schilling will be back next week, and Miller is now due back more than a month ahead of schedule, in early to mid May. The Sox depth here, as well an on their bench, will propel them to an unprecedented season, and a repeat World Championship.

The rest of the AL East is undistinguished. The Blue Jays are the same middling team they were last year. Hopefully the increase in payroll they will see in the next three years will make them competitive once again. But Roy Halladay is definitely back. It's good to see. The Orioles will be average again, as somehow they managed to come up empty searching for pitchers yet again. The D-Rays screwed themselves by demoting BJ Upton and Jonny Gomes before the season started. They will be awful yet again.

AL Central Record GB
Twins 92-70 --
Indians** 91-71 1
Tigers 79-83 13
White Sox 74-88 18
Royals 66-96 26

What are those asterisks next to the Indians name you ask? Well, those asterisks indicate the Indians as my Wild Card team. Yes, that's right, I have the Yankees missing the playoffs for the first time in a decade. There is a lot to like about both the Twins and the Indians. The Twins retained the players they were supposed to: Johan Santana, Brad Radke, Jacque Jones, and ditched the players who were not worthy: Christian Guzman and Corey Koskie. The Twins have a lot of offensive muscle all of a sudden, with upgrades at SS in rookie Jason Bartlett, C in Joe Mauer (finally healthy, we think...), and a full season from 1B Justin Morneau. 3B Mike Cuddyer figures to be as good as Koskie, if not better. And with my good Rockies' friend Lynn's grandson Jesse Crain in the bullpen all season, they figure to be better there as well. A fourth straight division championship, and a lot of great stories from Lynn, are definitely within sight.

The Indians will nip at their heels all season long this season, as opposed to the 4-5 months that they did last year. Upgrades to their bench, bullpen, and back end of the rotation figure to bring them the improvements they need. The ninety-one wins would be an 11 win increase over last year, which may seem a bit high, but the Indians bullpen was truly terrible last year. I believe that if they can keep Wickman healthy for the majority of the year, the additions of Arthur Rhodes and a full season of the "new" Bobby Howry should bode well for the Tribe in '05.

Elsewhere, the Royals were a disaster this year, and don't look much better this year. Hopefully Denny Bautista, Zack Greinke, Calvin Pickering, David DeJesus, and Ruben Gotay can give the Royals something on which to build. The White Sox got significantly worse, both in talent and philosophy. This is unfortunate, because the White Sox have a very nice front office, particularly Rick Hahn and Roland Hemond. But when you commit yourself to a run-run-run strategy without the necessary people to execute it, then you're in for a world of hurt. The Tigers are a great sleeper, as you can expect to see Jeremy Bonderman become a bona-fide ace, and Mike Maroth become the Joe Dumars to Bonderman's Isiah. The Tigers have to hope however, that Magglio Ordonez and Troy Percival don't disintegrate, and that Carlos Pena and Brandon Inge's retain their improvements from 2004. Also, look for Omar Infante to have a minor-breakout season.

AL West Record GB
Athletics 93-69 --
Angels 87-75 6
Rangers 83-79 10
Mariners 72-90 21

Yup, the A's again. No Hudson? No Mulder? No problem. The A's got better this off-season. In the worst case, the A's will be slightly worse as a pitching staff this year. They have a significant upside with all of their young pitchers, and can be much better than last year. What's more, they will do it at a fraction of the cost.

The Angels will again be good, but not as good. Adding a player with a translated career line of .262/.309/.403 (AVG/OBP/SLG) isn't the smartest move, but that is what the Halos did by adding Orlando Cabrera. O-Cabs is a likeable guy, but the bottom line is that he sucks. David Eckstein, at .285/.357/.365 wasn't much better, if at all, but at least he got on base at a respectable rate to set the table for the mashers. Plus, he cost about half as much. Dallas McPherson is expected to take over for Troy Glaus, but to date his back has had other ideas.

The Rangers will also see a bit of a drop-off, although I like them a little better than the 83 wins I have them pegged for. However, the Mariners nine extra wins this year have to come against someone, and thus the Angels and Rangers suffer a bit as a result. The Mariners will still not be good. As you may have seen in my article on Baseball Prospectus, the Mariners rotation is going to suck hard-core. Their offense, thankfully, will be improved. Just not enough to make them respectable.

So that's the regular season. The playoffs shape up thusly:

ALDS Result
1 Red Sox vs. 4 Indians
Red Sox in 3 games

2 Athletics vs. 3 Twins
Twins in 5 games

ALCS
1 Red Sox vs. 3 Twins
Red Sox in 6 games

The Red Sox exact some more revenge for the Indians crushing victories of '95 and '98, as the Indians are simply overmatched in their first playoff run since Pedro and Troy O'Leary laid the smack down in one of the ten greatest playoff games in MLB history. The A's once again find a way to not get it done in the first round. The Schilling vs. Santana matchup will not happen in the ALCS as they will need Santana in Game 5, and that, along with Manny and Papi, and better managerial decisions by Francona vs. Gardenhire, will be keys in the Red Sox victory and return trip to the World Series.

NL Preview coming up after I walk to the library with my gorgeous bride.