It's once again time for my semi-scientific approach to MLB picks for 2008. But first, let's take a look at how I did last year:
NAILED IT!
Team (# games off)
- NYA, HOU, KCA (0)
JUST ABOUT NAILED IT
- COL, PHI, DET, OAK, CIN (2)
- MIL, TEX (3)
- ARI, CHN, ATL (4)
- CLE, NYN, FLA, SFN (5)
PRETTY GOOD
- SDN, SLN (6)
- BOS, TOR, LAN (7)
- BAL (9)
- TBA (10)
NOT THAT GOOD
- MIN (11)
- PIT (12)
- LAA, WAS (13)
- CHA (14)
WAYYYYY OFF
- SEA (20)
All in all, not a bad year - I predicted more than half of the league within 5 wins of their actual win total. My process didn't change a whole lot this year. One thing I wanted to factor in this year is that the gap between the NL and AL is closing:
Year....AvgW-L
06AL....83-79
06NL....79-83
07AL....81.8-80.2
07NL....80.4-81.6
Projected:
08AL....81.4-80.6
08NL....80.6-81.4
A small difference overall, but a harbinger perhaps of greater things to come. Again, in making the picks I make sure that the correct number of wins and losses is parceled out league-wide and use a simple standard deviation test to make sure the records line up reasonably with an average of those in 2006 and 2007. Let's get to it. "07" is the difference between the team's projected 2008 finish and actual 2007 finish, with MLB rank being the team's total rank overall, 1-30.
AL E....W-L, 07, MLB Rank
BOS.....94-68, -2, 1
NYA.....88-74, -6, 9
TOR.....86-76, 3, 12
TBA.....82-80, 16, 16
BAL.....60-102, -9, 30
Boston is just as good as last year, but with increased competition from Tampa in addition to still very competitive New York and Tampa squads, and a bit of regression in the lineup from Manny, Papi and Lowell, a couple of wins come off the board. The big story here is Tampa's run to mediocrity. With three legitimate starters now in Kazmir, Shields and Garza, better candidates for the back-end of the rotation and an improved bullpen to match their killer offense - which added a veteran OBP guy in Cliff Floyd - the Rays should be better across the board.
AL C....W-L, 07, MLB Rank
CLE.....91-71, -5, 5
DET.....89-73, 1, 7
MIN.....77-85, -2, 20
CHA.....76-86, 4, 23
KCA.....75-87, 6, 24
Cleveland comes back to earth a little bit, but not enough for the Tigers to catch them. Quick - name a good reliever in Detroit's bullpen. Give up? That's because they're aren't any. Cabrera is a big upgrade at third, but the team got career years out of Granderson and Ordonez. Elsewhere, lots of people are picking Minnesota to bottom out, but I don't see it. With Liriano coming back, the rotation figures to be average or better and the pen is still a strength. The team will have a tough time scoring, but it's not a doomsday scenario, especially if Delmon Young improves in his second year. Chicago has two good starter and three not good ones, and no lineup can overcome that. KC continues the slow climb back to respectability under new Manager Trey Hillman.
AL W....W-L, 07, MLB Rank
LAA.....91-71, -3, 6
SEA.....86-76, -2, 13
TEX.....77-85, 2, 19
OAK.....68-94, -8, 26
Los Angeles stays on top almost by default. Though they had a full rotation and a great prospect in Nick Adenhart almost ready for the Majors, and not a lot of great options at shortstop after O-Cabs, they traded him for Jon Garland anyways. An even swap in a vacuum, but O-Cabs was a better fit for the Angels. The same can be said of the Torii Hunter acquisition - good player, wrong team. They now have six outfielders for three spots. They have the DH spot as well, but add Kendry Morales to the DH mix and you have seven players for four spots. That's going to leave people unhappy - Vladimir Guerrero is already complaining - and may effect play on the field. Seattle has little offense, as does Oakland. Down in Arlington, Texas has a chance to surpass this projection if they get a strong rebound season from Jason Jennings, but JJ's big year will more like be 2009.
NL E....W-L, 07, MLB Rank
NYN.....92-70, 4, 4
PHI.....85-77, -4, 14
ATL.....82-80, -2, 17
WAS.....80-82, 7, 18
FLA.....65-97, -6, 28
The Mets are a much better team with Santana, but lack of depth on the Club keeps them from the league's top three teams. Heading into the offseason, Philadelphia's two biggest issues were upgrading third base and the starting rotation. In my opinion, they did neither. With Brad Lidge already injured, and shaky the last two years when holding the closer mantle, their projection has to come down a bit. Atlanta is playing out the string with Chipper and Smoltz, similar to how Houston did with Bagwell and Biggio and the Giants did with Bonds. They will tread water for another year with Teixera's big bat helping the cause greatly. Washington will benefit from a much-improved lineup and that fresh ballpark smell that usually carries a little win boost with it.
NL C....W-L, 07, MLB Rank
CHN.....89-73, 4, 8
MIL.....87-75, 4, 11
CIN.....85-77, 13, 15
PIT.....77-85, 9, 21
SLN.....69-93, -9, 25
HOU.....65-97, -8, 29
My mother always taught me that if you don't have anything nice to say keep your mouth closed, so I don't have a lot to say about this division. Chicago and Milwaukee will keep improving gradually. In Chicago's case, important changes include Fukudome, full-time duty for Geovany Soto and an eventual upgrade at second base, whether it's Brian Roberts or someone else. Milwaukee's pen should be improved, a full year of Ryan Braun and an almost full year from Mike Cameron will help. Cincy will be much better, but they're still not quite there. A lot of people have them as their darkhorse, but I can't envision a scenario where they are better than both Chicago and Milwaukee, something they will have to be to make the playoffs.
NL W....W-L, 07, MLB Rank
COL.....93-69, 3, 2
ARI.....92-70, 2, 3
LAN.....87-75, 5, 10
SDN.....76-86, -13, 22
SFN.....66-96, -5, 27
If the Rockies 2-5 starters - Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Hirsh and Franklin Morales combine for 92-100 starts rather than their 67 from last year, they should give the Rockies a bump in their win total. In Arizona, Danny Haren will bring with him a small bump in wins. Randy Johnson may have something left in the tank, but if he doesn't - or if he gets hurt again - Arizona doesn't have a fantastic back-up plan. Again though, maturation from their young hitters - Justin Upton in particular - means the D-Backs will be one of the best teams in baseball. In LA, another old-school manager will not play his youngsters full-time, which will cost his team enough wins to keep them out of the playoffs. San Diego is a team that many figure will always be good, but regression from players like Brian Giles, Jim Edmonds and Greg Maddux, along with a reliance on the oft-injured Randy Wolf and Mark Prior to be significant cogs in their rotation mean that a fall is likely.
PLAYOFFS
AL:
1 BOS vs. 4 DET - BOS in 4
2 CLE vs. 3 LAA - CLE in 3
1 BOS vs. 2 CLE - CLE in 7
NL:
1 COL vs. 3 CHN - COL in 5
2 NYN vs. 4 ARI - ARI in 4
1 COL vs. 4 ARI - ARI in 7
WORLD SERIES - ARI in 7
While I did a relatively good job at picking team's overall records last season, I did a very poor job of picking the playoffs. I only picked four of the eight teams correctly, picked one of the four LCS teams correctly and zero of the two World Series teams correctly. Nevertheless, I offer up these projections. They will probably be wrong, but there they are anyways. Arizona and Colorado is becoming like Yankees vs. Red Sox, with 1/10 of the fan base/media attention. Last year's participants come to the brink of a rematch, only to see their hopes dashed at the last second. A rematch however, does seem plausible. For the record, I see the following teams as legitimate World Series contenders - Arizona, Boston, Cleveland, Colorado, both Los Angeles teams and the New York Mets, so that will be how I hedge my bets.
Since I did even worse in my Awards voting (getting only one of six correctly - CC Sabathia for AL Cy) I'm not even going to bother with that this year.
NAILED IT!
Team (# games off)
- NYA, HOU, KCA (0)
JUST ABOUT NAILED IT
- COL, PHI, DET, OAK, CIN (2)
- MIL, TEX (3)
- ARI, CHN, ATL (4)
- CLE, NYN, FLA, SFN (5)
PRETTY GOOD
- SDN, SLN (6)
- BOS, TOR, LAN (7)
- BAL (9)
- TBA (10)
NOT THAT GOOD
- MIN (11)
- PIT (12)
- LAA, WAS (13)
- CHA (14)
WAYYYYY OFF
- SEA (20)
All in all, not a bad year - I predicted more than half of the league within 5 wins of their actual win total. My process didn't change a whole lot this year. One thing I wanted to factor in this year is that the gap between the NL and AL is closing:
Year....AvgW-L
06AL....83-79
06NL....79-83
07AL....81.8-80.2
07NL....80.4-81.6
Projected:
08AL....81.4-80.6
08NL....80.6-81.4
A small difference overall, but a harbinger perhaps of greater things to come. Again, in making the picks I make sure that the correct number of wins and losses is parceled out league-wide and use a simple standard deviation test to make sure the records line up reasonably with an average of those in 2006 and 2007. Let's get to it. "07" is the difference between the team's projected 2008 finish and actual 2007 finish, with MLB rank being the team's total rank overall, 1-30.
AL E....W-L, 07, MLB Rank
BOS.....94-68, -2, 1
NYA.....88-74, -6, 9
TOR.....86-76, 3, 12
TBA.....82-80, 16, 16
BAL.....60-102, -9, 30
Boston is just as good as last year, but with increased competition from Tampa in addition to still very competitive New York and Tampa squads, and a bit of regression in the lineup from Manny, Papi and Lowell, a couple of wins come off the board. The big story here is Tampa's run to mediocrity. With three legitimate starters now in Kazmir, Shields and Garza, better candidates for the back-end of the rotation and an improved bullpen to match their killer offense - which added a veteran OBP guy in Cliff Floyd - the Rays should be better across the board.
AL C....W-L, 07, MLB Rank
CLE.....91-71, -5, 5
DET.....89-73, 1, 7
MIN.....77-85, -2, 20
CHA.....76-86, 4, 23
KCA.....75-87, 6, 24
Cleveland comes back to earth a little bit, but not enough for the Tigers to catch them. Quick - name a good reliever in Detroit's bullpen. Give up? That's because they're aren't any. Cabrera is a big upgrade at third, but the team got career years out of Granderson and Ordonez. Elsewhere, lots of people are picking Minnesota to bottom out, but I don't see it. With Liriano coming back, the rotation figures to be average or better and the pen is still a strength. The team will have a tough time scoring, but it's not a doomsday scenario, especially if Delmon Young improves in his second year. Chicago has two good starter and three not good ones, and no lineup can overcome that. KC continues the slow climb back to respectability under new Manager Trey Hillman.
AL W....W-L, 07, MLB Rank
LAA.....91-71, -3, 6
SEA.....86-76, -2, 13
TEX.....77-85, 2, 19
OAK.....68-94, -8, 26
Los Angeles stays on top almost by default. Though they had a full rotation and a great prospect in Nick Adenhart almost ready for the Majors, and not a lot of great options at shortstop after O-Cabs, they traded him for Jon Garland anyways. An even swap in a vacuum, but O-Cabs was a better fit for the Angels. The same can be said of the Torii Hunter acquisition - good player, wrong team. They now have six outfielders for three spots. They have the DH spot as well, but add Kendry Morales to the DH mix and you have seven players for four spots. That's going to leave people unhappy - Vladimir Guerrero is already complaining - and may effect play on the field. Seattle has little offense, as does Oakland. Down in Arlington, Texas has a chance to surpass this projection if they get a strong rebound season from Jason Jennings, but JJ's big year will more like be 2009.
NL E....W-L, 07, MLB Rank
NYN.....92-70, 4, 4
PHI.....85-77, -4, 14
ATL.....82-80, -2, 17
WAS.....80-82, 7, 18
FLA.....65-97, -6, 28
The Mets are a much better team with Santana, but lack of depth on the Club keeps them from the league's top three teams. Heading into the offseason, Philadelphia's two biggest issues were upgrading third base and the starting rotation. In my opinion, they did neither. With Brad Lidge already injured, and shaky the last two years when holding the closer mantle, their projection has to come down a bit. Atlanta is playing out the string with Chipper and Smoltz, similar to how Houston did with Bagwell and Biggio and the Giants did with Bonds. They will tread water for another year with Teixera's big bat helping the cause greatly. Washington will benefit from a much-improved lineup and that fresh ballpark smell that usually carries a little win boost with it.
NL C....W-L, 07, MLB Rank
CHN.....89-73, 4, 8
MIL.....87-75, 4, 11
CIN.....85-77, 13, 15
PIT.....77-85, 9, 21
SLN.....69-93, -9, 25
HOU.....65-97, -8, 29
My mother always taught me that if you don't have anything nice to say keep your mouth closed, so I don't have a lot to say about this division. Chicago and Milwaukee will keep improving gradually. In Chicago's case, important changes include Fukudome, full-time duty for Geovany Soto and an eventual upgrade at second base, whether it's Brian Roberts or someone else. Milwaukee's pen should be improved, a full year of Ryan Braun and an almost full year from Mike Cameron will help. Cincy will be much better, but they're still not quite there. A lot of people have them as their darkhorse, but I can't envision a scenario where they are better than both Chicago and Milwaukee, something they will have to be to make the playoffs.
NL W....W-L, 07, MLB Rank
COL.....93-69, 3, 2
ARI.....92-70, 2, 3
LAN.....87-75, 5, 10
SDN.....76-86, -13, 22
SFN.....66-96, -5, 27
If the Rockies 2-5 starters - Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Hirsh and Franklin Morales combine for 92-100 starts rather than their 67 from last year, they should give the Rockies a bump in their win total. In Arizona, Danny Haren will bring with him a small bump in wins. Randy Johnson may have something left in the tank, but if he doesn't - or if he gets hurt again - Arizona doesn't have a fantastic back-up plan. Again though, maturation from their young hitters - Justin Upton in particular - means the D-Backs will be one of the best teams in baseball. In LA, another old-school manager will not play his youngsters full-time, which will cost his team enough wins to keep them out of the playoffs. San Diego is a team that many figure will always be good, but regression from players like Brian Giles, Jim Edmonds and Greg Maddux, along with a reliance on the oft-injured Randy Wolf and Mark Prior to be significant cogs in their rotation mean that a fall is likely.
PLAYOFFS
AL:
1 BOS vs. 4 DET - BOS in 4
2 CLE vs. 3 LAA - CLE in 3
1 BOS vs. 2 CLE - CLE in 7
NL:
1 COL vs. 3 CHN - COL in 5
2 NYN vs. 4 ARI - ARI in 4
1 COL vs. 4 ARI - ARI in 7
WORLD SERIES - ARI in 7
While I did a relatively good job at picking team's overall records last season, I did a very poor job of picking the playoffs. I only picked four of the eight teams correctly, picked one of the four LCS teams correctly and zero of the two World Series teams correctly. Nevertheless, I offer up these projections. They will probably be wrong, but there they are anyways. Arizona and Colorado is becoming like Yankees vs. Red Sox, with 1/10 of the fan base/media attention. Last year's participants come to the brink of a rematch, only to see their hopes dashed at the last second. A rematch however, does seem plausible. For the record, I see the following teams as legitimate World Series contenders - Arizona, Boston, Cleveland, Colorado, both Los Angeles teams and the New York Mets, so that will be how I hedge my bets.
Since I did even worse in my Awards voting (getting only one of six correctly - CC Sabathia for AL Cy) I'm not even going to bother with that this year.