So it's been awhile since I posted to the blog. Or tweeted for that matter. There are a few reasons for this. First, and most important, after I made my MLB picks, my wife needed my attention. She was in her last 2 months of pregnancy, and not only did she require more attention, but we also started taking our baby preparation classes. And since our baby was born, I've been spending every second possible with him. In addition, I've added new responsibilities at work. Combine the two, and that doesn't leave much time for blogging. I even contemplated not making my NFL picks this year. I've been making them since as far back as I can remember. I used to do them by hand, picking every game for every team on sheet after sheet of paper from my father's yellow pads. These days, I keep them on an Excel spreadsheet. I managed to lose my last file when I bought my new laptop back in 2005, but I have 2006-2010 now saved in the same spreadsheet. It's a weird thing to take pride in, but I take pride in it nonetheless. I may not always be right, but I'm always invested. So even though I didn't read the SI preview issue this year, and only made it 2/3 through the Football Outsiders Almanac, here are my 2010 NFL picks. For the record, I did have New Orleans beating Minnesota Thursday night, but if you don't believe me, I'll understand. We'll go by division, with playoff results at the end.
AFC
AFC EAST
1. Miami Dolphins, 11-5, 3rd in AFC, 5th in NFL
Overview: The Dolphins are quietly lurking down south, and are ready to pounce this year. They will tie with New England, but win the division thanks to a 5-1 division record.
Biggest Win (regular season only): Week 14, @NYJ: The 8-4 Dolphins roll into the (New) Meadowlands and defeat the 9-3 Jets, starting the Jets on an end of season slump that will spiral them out of the playoffs, while giving the Dolphins the divisional record they need to trump the Pats.
2. New England Patriots, 11-5, 6th, 9th
Overview: I'm going to go against the grain here and say that the Pats defense will be a pleasant surprise, while the offense will be a bit of a let down. Wes Welker has been healthy in preseason, but to expect him to go all year without any knee problems would be naive. After him, the Pats have Moss, who will be double-teamed, and rookies. Tom Brady can only do so much.
Biggest Wins: Week 6, vs. BAL, Week 11, vs. IND: The Pats may not be Super Bowl contenders this year, but they will be get retribution for their 2 most embarrassing losses of 2009 (though Indy will once again have the last laugh in the playoffs).
3. New York Jets, 10-6, 7th, 11th
Overview: The Jets have been riding high all offseason, but they have been remarkably fortunate with injuries on their offensive line, it will take Revis awhile to work back into game shape, and their schedule is not as cupcake-laden as it was last year.
Biggest Win: Week 8, vs. GB: Coming out of their bye, Gang Green punishes Aaron Rodgers & Co., whose passing game will have a tough time on Revis Island. This game sets the Jets on a 6-game winning streak.
4. Buffalo Bills, 3-13, 15th, 30th
Overview: There isn't much good to say, ever, about the Bills.
Biggest Win: Week 17, at NYJ: The one silver lining in the Bills season will be playing spoiler. With this win, they will knock the Jets out of the playoffs.
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens, 12-4, 2nd, 4th
Overview: The additions at wide receiver will be enough to turn Flacco into a top 10 QB, and Baltimore will finally triumph in the hotly contested AFC North.
Biggest Win: Week 13, vs. PIT: This win gives them the season sweep of Pittsburgh, and vaults them to the division title, as neither Baltimore or Pittsburgh will lose a game from Week 14-17.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers, 11-5, 5th, 6th
Overview: Big Ben will come back to a 2-2 team, and Dennis Dixon will become the quarterback of the future in what will be Big Ben's last season in black and gold.
Biggest Win: Week 1, vs. ATL: The game that proves where Dixon proves he has what it takes to be a quarterback in the National Football League.
3. Cincinnati Bengals, 7-9, 10th, 19th
Overview: A much tougher schedule that includes NE, Atlanta, Miami, Indy, the Jets, New Orleans and San Diego for outside of the division foes (along with sleeper Tampa Bay) conspire to ruin Cincy's shot at a second straight playoff season.
Biggest Win: Week 13, vs. NO: Cincy shows that they're not a bad team, just one with the odds stacked against them.
4. Cleveland Browns, 5-11, 13th, 27th
Overview: Same old Browns - any progress they made in the last few weeks of '09 will ultimately be cancelled out by the unfortunate signing of Jake Delhomme.
Biggest Win: Week 4, vs. CIN: The Browns deal the Bengals an early season blow, knocking the Bengals down to 2-2, in a season where they need every win they can get.
AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts, 13-1, 1st, 1st
Overview: The Colts are once again the best team in football during the regular season, but this season, they will be the best in the playoffs as well. Donald Brown eventually takes over for a too-concussed Joseph Addai, and provides just enough ground game to keep defenses honest. They will face a stern test from the Ravens in the AFC Championship game, until Manning remembers the Ravens have no secondary, and then he will feast.
Biggest Win: Week 13, vs. DAL: Indy deals Dallas it's seventh loss, effectively knocking them to the bottom of the playoff picture in the NFC. After this game, Indy will be 10-2, and have a leg up on the rest of the AFC for home-field advantage.
2. Tennessee Titans, 9-7, 9th, 15th
Overview: The Titans will be good, but not good enough, and will have a tough time coming back in games when they face an early deficit.
Biggest Win: Week 14, vs. IND: Beating Indy is always huge, and the win vaults the Titans to 8-5, giving them a legit shot at the playoffs, which unfortunately they will not take advantage of, losing to KC and Indy in the final two weeks of the season.
3. Houston Texans, 7-9, 11th, 21st
Overview: Consider me officially off of the Texans bandwagon for 2010.
Biggest Win: Week 3, vs. DAL: Houston takes a 2-1 lead in the new Battle for Texas.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars, 2-14, 16th, 31st
Overview: The only team worse than the Jags will be Seattle, but while Seattle is rebuilding, the Jags fashion themselves as dark horse contenders. They won't be.
Biggest Win: Week 6, vs. TEN: Their only AFC South win of 2010.
AFC WEST
1. Kansas City Chiefs, 10-6, 4th, 10th
Overview: The Chiefs combine stellar number options on offense (RB Jamaal Charles & WR Dwayne Bowe) with an easy schedule and a crappy division to vault themselves back into the playoffs for the first time since 2006.
Biggest Win: Week 14, at SD: This huge win in San Diego gives the Chiefs the season sweep and the edge in the tiebreaker with the lightning bolts.
2. San Diego Chargers, 10-6, 8th, 12th
Overview: The Chargers have made the playoffs in four straight years, and five of the last six, yet they are not a dynasty, and have just lost arguably the best player in franchise history. The odds say it's time for them to miss the playoffs.
Biggest Win: Week 7, vs. NE: Teetering at 3-3, this win over the always-tough-for-them Patriots will keep hope alive.
3. Oakland Raiders, 6-10, 12th, 24th
Overview: This is the make or break year for Jason Campbell. Final result: break. The Raiders only do 1 win better than last season.
Biggest Win: Week 5, vs. SD: The win pushes Oakland to a respectable 2-3, while it pushes the needle to high alert for the Chargers, who will have now lost to division foes KC and Oakland in the first five weeks.
4. Denver Broncos, 4-12, 14th, 28th
Overview: This is already shaping up to be a lost season for the Broncos, who were going to have be running on all cylinders to combats their difficult schedule.
Biggest Win: Week 10, vs. KC: Coming off their bye, the Broncos net their third, and penultimate, win of the season in Tim Tebow's first start.
NFC
NFC EAST
1. Washington Redskins, 11-5, 3rd, 7th
Overview: For one year, everything will go right in Washington, who will only learn of Mike Shanahan's shortcut, band-aid ways in 2011. Or 2012, since there will be no 2011 season.
Biggest Wins: Week 4, @ PHI, Week 10, vs. PHI: Donovan McNabb wins.
2. New York Giants, 9-7, 6th, 14th
Overview: The G-Men rebound from a lackluster year and sneak back into the playoffs.
Biggest Win: Week 17, at WAS: The Giants get the win that vaults them into the playoffs over an already clinched Washington, who rests most of their starters, including McNabb.
3. Dallas Cowboys, 8-8, 7th, 16th
Overview: The Cowboys are overrated.
Biggest Win: Week 14, vs. PHI: After two straight losses to New Orleans and Indy, the Cowboys keep their fading playoff hopes alive.
4. Philadelphia Eagles, 8-8, 8th, 17th
Overview: The Eagles will be back in the NFL's next season, as their young core of Kolb, McCoy, Jackson, Macklin and Celek grow together, but they will not have the wherewithal or consistency to survive the tough NFC East this season.
Biggest Wins: Week 1, vs. GB, Week 6, vs. ATL: The Eagles give their fans hope by showing they have what it takes to beat the conference's elite.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers, 12-4, 1st, 2nd
Overview: The NFC's best regular season team will ride a strong offense all the way to a bye week, where they will unfortunately then run into the New Orleans Saints, who will have just enough magic to out-gun the Packers and end their season too soon.
Biggest Wins: Week 7, vs. MIN, Week 11, @ MIN: After these two games, Aaron Rodgers will be able to finally fling the Favre monkey from his back.
2. Chicago Bears, 7-9, 11th, 22nd
Overview: I just don't see it. Minor improvements in the offense will be cancelled out by more cracks in the defense, and when the chips are down, you don't want Jay Cutler under center.
Biggest Win: Week 10, vs. MIN: The Vikings come into this one with a 3-5 record and Green Bay the week after. In other words, it's a must-win for Minnesota, but they won't get it, as Brian Urlacher mercifully ends Brett Favre's career by snapping his ankle in half.
3. Detroit Lions, 6-10, 13th, 25th
Overview: The Lions start travelling the long road back to respectability.
Biggest Win: Week 6, @NYG: Matthew Stafford proves he belongs, and just in time, as it is just Detroit's second win of the season, and heading into the bye week, Stafford will need the win to save his job.
4. Minnesota Vikings, 5-11, 14th, 26th
Overview: That's right, last place. Favre will not play the whole season, and the rest of the Vikings will be too shell shocked to compete. Also, Adrian Peterson will flirt with the all-time fumble record.
Biggest Win: Week 6, vs. DAL: The win moves Minnesota to 2-3 on the season, giving fans hope that Favre can resurrect them once more. He won't.
NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta Falcons, 12-4, 2nd, 3rd
Overview: I've never hated a pick more. I hate BC, and therefore I hate Matt Ryan, but this is their Milhouse Van Houten year. IE, everything's coming up Falcons!
Biggest Win: Week 16, vs. NO: The 10-4 Falcons face off against the 10-4 Saints, with the Falcons winning the game, sweeping the season series and winning the division in the process. It will also give them the confidence they need to ultimately beat New Orleans in the NFC Championship game.
2. New Orleans Saints, 11-5, 5th, 8th
Overview: While the Saints won't win the division, they will be playoff bound in consecutive seasons for just the second time in franchise history (1990-1992 being the other time).
Biggest Win: Week 8, vs. PIT: The Saints prove their Super Bowl win wasn't a fluke by knocking off perennial contender Pittsburgh.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8-8, 9th, 18th
Overview: Josh Freeman and Raheem Morris shut up their critics with a respectable season. They will go 0-4 against the better AFC, but will hold their own within their own conference.
Biggest Win: Week 6, vs. NO: The Bucs announce their rebirth and expose some chinks in the Super Bowl champs armor at the same time.
4. Carolina Panthers, 3-13, 15th, 29th
Overview: This will be John Fox's last year with the Panthers, who will lose their first five games (with Matt Moore as QB) and their last five (with Jimmy Clausen as QB).
Biggest Win: Week 7, vs. SF: The Panthers get their first win of the year, while knocking San Fran back to earth.
NFC WEST
1. San Francisco, 9-7, 4th, 13th
Overview: The Niners are this year's sexy pick. I'm only buying them in the sense that the rest of this division is abominable.
Biggest Win: Week 17 vs. ARI: The Niners will come in at 8-7, the Cardinals 7-8. But with the Cardinals having won the first matchup, an Arizona win would give them the tiebreaker and the division title. The Niners will dig deep and come up with the win that gives them their first playoff berth since 2002.
2. Arizona Cardinals, 7-9, 10th, 20th
Overview: The Cardinals were already in for a down season without Kurt Warner, and that was before they realized that their best option at QB was Derek Anderson.
Biggest Win: Week 12, vs. SF: The win puts Arizona at 4-7 and will be the first win in a four game winning streak that will bring them back to .500 and within hailing distance of San Fran, with a Week 17 matchup in sight. Unfortunately, they will lose that matchup and find themselves out of the playoffs.
3. St. Louis Rams, 7-9, 12th, 23rd
Overview: Sam Bradford justifies his selection over Detroit's Suh, and the Rams make the run at respectability that some predicted would happen last year.
Biggest Win: Week 1, vs. ARI: Bradford shows right off the bat that 2010 is the dawn of a new era of Rams football.
4. Seattle Seahawks, 1-15, 16th, 32nd
Overview: I saved the worst for last. Wait, that's not how that goes. In any case, Pete Carroll is rebuilding, and will have the cache to let the 'Hawks take their lumps this year, just as long as it gets them Jake Locker next year.
Biggest Win: Week 13, vs. CAR: This one's by default, since it's their only win.
AFC PLAYOFFS
#6 New England defeats #3 Miami
#5 Pittsburgh defeats #4 Kansas City
#1 Indianapolis defeats #6 New England
#2 Baltimore defeats #5 Pittsburgh
#1 Indianapolis defeats #2 Baltimore
NFC PLAYOFFS
#3 Washington defeats #6 New York Giants
#5 New Orleans defeats #4 San Francisco
#5 New Orleans defeats #1 Green Bay
#2 Atlanta defeats #3 Washington
#2 Atlanta defeats #5 New Orleans
SUPER BOWL XLV
Indianapolis 27 - Atlanta 21
MVP Peyton Manning
Manning gets his second Super Bowl win a year later than everyone though he would, beating an Atlanta team that is just happy to be there (also, did you really think I'd pick a BC-led team to win the whole enchilada? Estan loco.).