With a 31-14 lead 42 seconds into the fourth quarter, this post shouldn't have been necessary. But Peyton Manning's skills are set to All-Madden these days, and the New England defense, though their time is coming, they are still a bit young and without Ty Warren and Jarvis Green, the defensive line was thin last night. That's not an excuse for blowing a 17-point lead, but even with these facts, they almost held on. But there was that four-and-out, conceivably the four most critical regular season plays of the entire decade. Let's go through it play-by-play.
First down and 10, ball on NE 20, 2:23 left. NE has two time outs, IND has three.
Here's the first red flag - the Pats called time out before the play. Now, no matter the reason, there is no excuse for calling a time out on first down when you've had 1:49 of game time plus commercials to develop a strategy. Bill O'Brien, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady (and Brian Hoyer) had plenty of time to call, not just one, but two or three plays. What made the decision to call the time out even more egregious was the fact that they ran the same predictable play they had been running all game. When you are in the middle of the field and mixing run and pass, it's a good call. When you're trying to run out the clock and only have a minimum of blockers, the shotgun draw is not a good call, or even a defensible call.
Second down and 10, ball on NE 20, 2:18 left. NE one time out, IND two.
This is more like it. A quick, eight-yard pass to Welker. Indy wrapped him up quick, stopping him just short of the first down, which set up the drama.
Third down and two, ball on NE 28, 2:11 left. Each team has one time out.
This was the worst call. If you are determined to get the first down at all costs, then you should be running for the first down at all costs. And if they didn't know if they would go for it on fourth down before this play was ran, then that's an even worse mistake. Either way, you HAVE to be running on this play. You HAVE to make Indy use their last time out. Finally, the play they ran was incredibly risky. Yes, you want to get the ball in Welker's hands, but not on a route that far to the sideline. There is always a risk of getting that picked off, and Jerraud Powers had played the receivers tough all game, and most of Welker's catches (both last night and in his entire Pats tenure) were made when he was wide open. Welker needs certain plays run for him to succeed, and that play was not it. The ball should have been going to Moss or Faulk, each of whom are well versed in catching the ball in traffic.
Fourth down and two, ball on NE 28, 2:08 left. NE is out of time outs, IND has one time out.
I have thought about this a lot overnight, and I haven't looked at any "analysis" of the game that would color my opinion. I like the decision to go for it. While Manning could have thrown his third pick of the night, he had also marched the Colts 79 yards in five plays and 2:04, as well as 79 yards in six plays in 1:49, in the fourth quarter already, both times without the benefit of a time out. Now you were going to give him a time out to play with, and at best, 70-75 yards to go. Hanson was averaging 44 yards a punt with a long of 55, and Indy had not returned a punt all game. Let's be conservative and say that the punt has a net of 45 yards. That puts the ball on the Indy 27, with two minutes to go and a time out in his pocket. Okay, well that's basically the scenario Manning had already pulled off twice in the quarter already. Not to mention the defense was more tired than they were for those two drives. Either way, the Colts have to score seven, but in the other scenario, the defense only has to cover 30 yards. For a gassed defense, that could be viewed as a positive.
On the other hand, you could make the case that the Colts didn't score until they almost used the whole clock to do so. True, but they ran off a lot of time after Addai's two runs that they wouldn't have wasted had they needed to get down the field. And they still had their time out in their pocket when they scored.
As for the call to throw the pass in the flat to Faulk, I have no problem with that call on fourth down. It's a play that Brady and Faulk have been executing for a decade, and I had confidence it would work. In those situations, you have to go with your bread and butter. Now, maybe that was the problem, maybe the Colts sniffed it out. Maybe the throw was off the mark, or maybe Faulk just juggled it, or maybe...maybe doesn't matter. The Pats didn't get it done there, but I applaud the call. In hindsight, you could say that they should have been looking for Moss, or maybe running the old direct snap where Faulk steps in front of Brady and Brady pretends the ball was snapped over his head, which is another classic Patriots short yardage play. But they should have never been in this situation, and may not have been had they run on third down. That is the play to question.
In the end, the game was crushing for the Pats, but the young'ns need to be punched in the mouth a few times. The second year guys have the Jets OT loss, and everyone has the Broncos OT loss and this game. It will make the defense stronger, and it gives Belichick some coaching to do. But I find the media amusing. I did see one headline. My home page is espn.com, and their headline when I logged on this morning was "Bill Gambles...Colts Win." Had the Patriots succeeded there, we would have been treated to a week of "Belichick Knows All" stories. Bottom line - The call to go for it on fourth down was not the wrong call, the decision to call a time out before first down and the decision to throw on third down were the mistakes.
First down and 10, ball on NE 20, 2:23 left. NE has two time outs, IND has three.
Here's the first red flag - the Pats called time out before the play. Now, no matter the reason, there is no excuse for calling a time out on first down when you've had 1:49 of game time plus commercials to develop a strategy. Bill O'Brien, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady (and Brian Hoyer) had plenty of time to call, not just one, but two or three plays. What made the decision to call the time out even more egregious was the fact that they ran the same predictable play they had been running all game. When you are in the middle of the field and mixing run and pass, it's a good call. When you're trying to run out the clock and only have a minimum of blockers, the shotgun draw is not a good call, or even a defensible call.
Second down and 10, ball on NE 20, 2:18 left. NE one time out, IND two.
This is more like it. A quick, eight-yard pass to Welker. Indy wrapped him up quick, stopping him just short of the first down, which set up the drama.
Third down and two, ball on NE 28, 2:11 left. Each team has one time out.
This was the worst call. If you are determined to get the first down at all costs, then you should be running for the first down at all costs. And if they didn't know if they would go for it on fourth down before this play was ran, then that's an even worse mistake. Either way, you HAVE to be running on this play. You HAVE to make Indy use their last time out. Finally, the play they ran was incredibly risky. Yes, you want to get the ball in Welker's hands, but not on a route that far to the sideline. There is always a risk of getting that picked off, and Jerraud Powers had played the receivers tough all game, and most of Welker's catches (both last night and in his entire Pats tenure) were made when he was wide open. Welker needs certain plays run for him to succeed, and that play was not it. The ball should have been going to Moss or Faulk, each of whom are well versed in catching the ball in traffic.
Fourth down and two, ball on NE 28, 2:08 left. NE is out of time outs, IND has one time out.
I have thought about this a lot overnight, and I haven't looked at any "analysis" of the game that would color my opinion. I like the decision to go for it. While Manning could have thrown his third pick of the night, he had also marched the Colts 79 yards in five plays and 2:04, as well as 79 yards in six plays in 1:49, in the fourth quarter already, both times without the benefit of a time out. Now you were going to give him a time out to play with, and at best, 70-75 yards to go. Hanson was averaging 44 yards a punt with a long of 55, and Indy had not returned a punt all game. Let's be conservative and say that the punt has a net of 45 yards. That puts the ball on the Indy 27, with two minutes to go and a time out in his pocket. Okay, well that's basically the scenario Manning had already pulled off twice in the quarter already. Not to mention the defense was more tired than they were for those two drives. Either way, the Colts have to score seven, but in the other scenario, the defense only has to cover 30 yards. For a gassed defense, that could be viewed as a positive.
On the other hand, you could make the case that the Colts didn't score until they almost used the whole clock to do so. True, but they ran off a lot of time after Addai's two runs that they wouldn't have wasted had they needed to get down the field. And they still had their time out in their pocket when they scored.
As for the call to throw the pass in the flat to Faulk, I have no problem with that call on fourth down. It's a play that Brady and Faulk have been executing for a decade, and I had confidence it would work. In those situations, you have to go with your bread and butter. Now, maybe that was the problem, maybe the Colts sniffed it out. Maybe the throw was off the mark, or maybe Faulk just juggled it, or maybe...maybe doesn't matter. The Pats didn't get it done there, but I applaud the call. In hindsight, you could say that they should have been looking for Moss, or maybe running the old direct snap where Faulk steps in front of Brady and Brady pretends the ball was snapped over his head, which is another classic Patriots short yardage play. But they should have never been in this situation, and may not have been had they run on third down. That is the play to question.
In the end, the game was crushing for the Pats, but the young'ns need to be punched in the mouth a few times. The second year guys have the Jets OT loss, and everyone has the Broncos OT loss and this game. It will make the defense stronger, and it gives Belichick some coaching to do. But I find the media amusing. I did see one headline. My home page is espn.com, and their headline when I logged on this morning was "Bill Gambles...Colts Win." Had the Patriots succeeded there, we would have been treated to a week of "Belichick Knows All" stories. Bottom line - The call to go for it on fourth down was not the wrong call, the decision to call a time out before first down and the decision to throw on third down were the mistakes.