Last year, the AL ended up being the better league once again, as the progress the NL made from 2006 to 2007 turned out to be a one year blip. AL teams finished with an average record of 82.6-79.4, with the NL the inverse. Some of that will be rectified this year - the Braves and Mets should be better in the East, and the Rockies should be rebound a bit as well. But the Cubs and Astros also performed much better than expectations last year, and with the Pirates and Padres going through major rebuilds, the NL is once again unlikely to emerge as the dominant league.
Just like last year, W-L is each team's predicted total, Diff is the team's difference between their actual 2008 win total and their projected 2009 total and Rank is their projected MLB rank from 1-30.
AL E....W-L, Diff, Rank
TBA....96-66, -1, 1
BOS....95-67, 0, 2
NYA....94-68, +5, 3
TOR....81-81, -5, 15
BAL....77-85, +9, 23
The three best teams in baseball all reside in one division. It really may be a coin flip for who has the best team, and which team is going to get left out of the playoffs. Each team has extra depth at starter - Boston has John Smoltz and Clay Buchholz, Tampa has David Price and Jeff Niemann and New York has Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Each team has the requisite offensive firepower and bullpen needed to take home the division title and secure home field throughout the playoffs.
Tampa should get a bounce back season from Carl Crawford, and full seasons from B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria. Their two new offensive acquisitions, Pat Burrell and Matt Joyce, should add runs to the lineup, and if Burrell is not forced to play the field, the Rays will be all the better for it. The bullpen doesn't have one star, but it is very deep.
In Boston, the bullpen is so deep that one of their prime offseason acquisitions, Japanese import Junichi Tazawa, wasn't even expected to begin the season in the Majors. The Sox are acquiring pitchers they might use in the second half before the season even starts. The big question for the Red Sox is the health of their offensive players, as the team doesn't have as much depth to replace Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew and David Ortiz if they go down again. The key here will be Rocco Baldelli. If he and Drew can combine for 162 games, the Sox will be fine. But that's a medium-to-large sized if. And for some strange reason, Jason Varitek was able to weasel his way back onto the team. I'll be surprised if he is the starting catcher in September, but for now, he still is.
For all of the potential problems the Sox have with the bottom of their roster, I believe that the Rays and Sox overcome the Yankees because of the bottom of their rosters. The Yankees have once again forgotten to align their bench talent, and find themselves ill-equipped to deal with injuries. They also are still a bit behind the other two AL East juggernauts defensively. The Yankees certainly improved their defense with the addition of Mark Teixeira, and by naming Brett Gardner as their center fielder, but I have to wonder how long Gardner is going to last. If his batting average is under .225 after a month, is Manager Joe Girardi really going to stick with him, or is he going to be tempted to plug Johnny Damon back in? We'll see.
Elsewhere in the division, I see one major difference between Toronto and Baltimore - Roy Halladay. Both teams have awful rotations (aside from Halladay) and below-average bullpens. Toronto has a better defense, and Baltimore has a better offense (or they will, as soon as they call up Matt Wieters). If Toronto ends up trading Halladay, or the O's call up Wieters sooner than expected, I can easily see the two teams flip-flopping in the standings. Nick Markakis' only competition for best outfielder in the division is Upton, and Adam Jones stands a good chance at blossoming into a 20-20 player in his second season. In addition, the O's resolved Brian Roberts' contract situation, and those three players, along with Wieters, figure to form an imposing offensive core for the next few seasons. I'm also excited to see what Felix Pie will do with extended playing time, and I am likewise excited for the (hopeful) emergence of Travis Snider and Adam Lind in Toronto.
AL C....W-L, Diff, Rank
CLE....87-75, +6, 9
MIN....83-79, -5, 10
KCA....81-81, +6, 16
CHA....76-86, -13, 25
DET....65-97, -9, 28
There is a reason that the three best teams in the AL are all in the East - the other two divisions just aren't that good this year. Last year's division champs, the Chicago White Sox, lost Orlando Cabrera, Nick Swisher and Joe Crede, and replaced them with nothing. Josh Fields was a prospect two years ago, but now is just a guy. He might play as well as Crede, but I wouldn't bet on it. And Crede isn't that good in the first place. Alexei Ramirez wasn't good defensively at second, so moving him to short probably isn't going to work out well. Second base and center field are abject nightmares, and the rotation now features the artist formerly known as Bartolo Colon. John Danks was outstanding last year, but regression should be expected. Ozzie Guillen is a terrific manager, but there are just too many holes here.
Cleveland has its own holes, but they also have a lot of things going in their favor. First, Chin-Soo Choo should be able to build on the .946 OPS he put up in limited time last season. They added Kerry Wood as closer, which aligns their talent better, as Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez are better set-up men. They added Mark DeRosa, and Victor Martinez should be back to mashing. If they receive any uptick in performance from the mysterious Travis Hafner, they could win easily, but they will probably have to battle it out with Minnesota and Kansas City.
Like the White Sox squad they faced in game #163 last season, Minnesota did not make a ton of offseason moves. While they should get an entire season of Francisco Liriano this season, they are not going to get anywhere near a full season from catcher Joe Mauer, who begins the season on the disabled list. Mauer, who is the Twins' best player, may not even be able to catch, which will be a big problem for the Twins, as they don't have another good backstop option, but do have an abundance of no-field DH types. Scott Baker was set to be their Opening Day starter before being shelved by an injury, which I'm sure isn't the way he wanted to start his season. The Twins always manage to hang around and compete, but for the third straight year, it won't be in the cards in the twin cities.
The Royals were a sleeper for the division until the other day, when they decided to hand a rotation spot to Sidney Ponson. Oops! Ponson must have pictures of somebody, because he keeps finding jobs despite the fact that he hasn't had a season ERA under 5.00 since 2003. Last year in Texas, he managed an incredibly deceiving 3.88 ERA in Texas, as he allowed a whopping 87 base runners in 55.2 innings. Ponson sort of represents the contradiction that is the Royals - they stock the team with promising prospects like Alex Gordon and Mike Aviles, but also past their prime veterans like Ponson and Kyle Farnsworth. They add good defensive players like Coco Crisp, but also butchers like Mike Jacobs. Zack Greinke and Gil Meche form a solid base for the front of their rotation, and Juan Cruz and Joakim Soria the same for the bullpen, but the Royals have more work to do. Everyone seems to be high on Kyle Davies, but until August 28, his ERA for the season was 4.81, and 5.84 for his career. I need to see more than six starts at the end of the season when the team was out of contention to get excited about him.
As for Detroit, they're pretty much a train wreck. 20-year old Rick Porcello is penciled in as their fourth starter right now, and while Porcello will no doubt be a very good pitcher, it's unlikely that 2009 will be his real coming-out party. Detroit simply has zero pitching beyond Justin Verlander, and he got destroyed in the second half last season. They will score runs, but not enough, and if they have to trade Miguel Cabrera midseason, a long season will be even longer. Two years ago, everyone in baseball was praising Dave Dombrowski for his marvelous Motown rebuilding job, but by the end of this season, Detroit will be a lot closer to their 2003-2004 incarnation than the 2006-2007 one.
AL W....W-L, Diff, Rank
LAA....83-79, -17, 11
OAK....79-83, +4, 19
TEX....79-83, 0, 20
SEA....77-85, +16, 22
This division could be the worst in baseball this year. It says a lot when one team is projected to do 17 wins worse than the year before, and still win the division. The top three members of their rotation - John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders - all may miss significant time with injury, and fellow starter Kelvim Escobar will miss time as well. The braintrust made the correct decision to make Gary Matthews a very high-priced extra outfielder, but he is whining about it, which is obviously not good. Their offense and defense both have big problems. The bullpen is still a strength, but the main reason they will win the division is the fact that their competition is just not that stiff.
Oakland is the one team in the division with the most variable outcomes, and that's mainly due to their rotation. The team's top two prospects - Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill - both won rotation spots. It is rare to see that happen at the same time, and it could go very well or very poorly. Another big item that is difficult to predict is the destination of outfielder Matt Holliday. If they trade him midseason to continue bulking up their rebuild, they will probably come in under 79 wins. He is one of, if not the only, imposing presence in their lineup, and the team will not score a ton of runs without him. The third factor is the health of Justin Duchscherer. While he is unlikely to repeat his 2008 performance, he is still the ace of their staff, and the A's will need him to come back quickly following his surgery this past Tuesday. But the A's have some things going for them this year as well, starting with their new double play combo of Orlando Cabrera and Mark Ellis. In all, it just doesn't seem like the positives will outweigh the negatives this season.
Speaking of extreme positives and extreme negatives, let's talk about the Texas Rangers, where the offense is the extreme positive and the pitching is the extreme negative. The defense lies somewhere between the two extremes, but it's not going to be a great advantage. At this time next year, Neftali Feliz, Justin Smoak and perhaps Derek Holland will have been added to the Major League roster, and the Rangers will have a better chance of topping the AL West for the first time since 1999.
It might seem counter intuitive to pick a team that dealt its closer away to add 16 wins to their ledger, but the Mariners might have a truly exceptional outfield defense this season. Ichiro Suziki's surprise DL stint to start the season is a bit off-putting, but he might only miss eight to ten games. The offense won't be terribly imposing, but I saw two guys in skinny jeans at Starbucks yesterday that would be upgrades over the Mariners 2008 1B/DH combo of Richie Sexson and Jose Vidro. Russell Branyan and Ken Griffey, Jr. do not have big shoes to fill. Speaking of Griffey, statheads might not like it, but the team is likely to derive a small amount of karma from Griffey's farewell tour. This isn't as bad as Craig Biggio's last two years in Houston - Griffey can still be an effective player.
NL E....W-L, Diff, Rank
NYN....94-68, +5, 4
PHI....93-69, +1, 5
FLA....82-80, -2, 13
ATL....80-82, +8, 17
WAS....66-96, +7, 27
Last season, the Mets received a combined 14 starts from Nelson Figueroa, Claudio Vargas, Brian Stokes, Brandon Knight and Tony Armas, as they were ill-equipped to deal with injuries to Pedro Martinez and John Maine. This season, the team has added innings eater Livan Hernandez and Tim Redding to join prospect Jonathan Niese to fill out the back end of the rotation. Redding has had shoulder discomfort in Spring Training, so Hernandez will start in the fifth spot, and while Hernandez is on the down side of his career, the Mets did win 89 games last year despite Petey's 5.61 ERa. Hernandez's biggest strength - his rubber arm - should suit the Mets just fine. One of the reasons for that is the newly revamped bullpen. Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz made a habit of dominating AL hitters, and now will be able to feast on weaker competition in the NL. The Mets are far from perfect; they still could stand to upgrade their corner outfielders and catchers, and are a classic boom or bust team. But after two years of September busting it's a fair bet that the Mets will stay glued together in 2009, and the results will be enough to erase the headaches their fans feel when they look at the ticketing map of the new Citi Field.
That's not to say that Philadelphia is going to go down quietly. But there are a couple of factors working against Philly this season. First, perfection doesn't happen too often, so expecting Brad Lidge to repeat his perfect season in terms of converting save opportunities is folly. Second, the signing of Raul Ibanez made the team incredibly left-handed, which probably isn't a good thing. Third, Cole Hamels is already showing signs of wear and tear, and the season hasn't even started yet. Retread Chan Ho Park winning the fifth spot in the rotation underscores just how important Hamels is to this rotation. The Phillies 2008 NLCS and World Series MVP can't miss mch time, or the Fightin's could be in serious trouble.
The soon to be Miami Marlins will do what they usually do - pinch pennies that will deny a possible championship core its chance to win said championship. Hanley Ramirez may be the best player in baseball, and if he's not, he's in the top three. Cameron Maybin is the stud the Marlins have been waiting for in center, and Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson and Chris Volstad form an impressive trio at the front of the rotation. Anibal Sanchez and Andrew Miller have their merits, and were once hyped prospects. Second baseman Dan Uggla and closer Matt Lindstrom round out an impressive foundation, and though I could see this team winning 90 games, things just never seem to go smoothly for them. Case in point - they were still building the roster on April 1, trading for pitcher Hayden Penn and corner-man Ross Gload.
Atlanta should have been better than they were last year, but Jeff Francoeur imploded and was even demoted to Double-A for a stretch. Yet there he is again, atop the Braves' right-field depth chart. Manning the other corner is Garrett Anderson. That's not going to end well. And as good as the front four of the rotation may be, with Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Javier Vazquez and Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami, the Braves.com depth chart currently lists no fifth starter, since the man nominally expected to fill that role - Tom Glavine - is already on the DL. The bullpen is similarly held together by tape and glue, as Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano and Peter Moylan are imposing but fragile. The infield should be among the NL's best, and rookie Jordan Schafer offers promise in center, and the Braves could hop scotch over the Fish into third, but I'm not holding my breath.
As for Washington, they are simply too dysfunctional to hope to compete. Growth from the likes of Lastings Milledge, Ryan Zimmerman, Jesus Flores, Jordan Zimmerman and Elijah Dukes is all the hope the Nats will be able to muster this season. Of course, if they play Austin Kearns over Dukes, it will be hard for him to make any progress.
NL C....W-L, Diff, Rank
SLN....90-72, +4, 6
CHN....88-74, -9, 7
MIL....80-82, -10, 18
CIN....77-85, +3, 24
HOU....72-90, -14, 26
PIT....61-101, -6, 30
Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are back. Khalil Greene is on the scene. Rick Ankiel should play the whole season, and if Colby Rasmus forces his way onto the roster, the long, painful Chris Duncan experiment should draw to a close. Not having Troy Glaus around to open the season is a detriment, but the Cards should hang around long enough to win this year. That's because things are not going to go well in Wrigleyville.
Milton Bradley in the outfield? Kevin Gregg as the closer? Really? The Fukudome/Johnson platoon in center isn't going to inspire fear. Rich Harden is always a prime candidate to break down, and surprisingly, so is Carlos Zambrano, whose ERA the last two months was a whopping 7.28 despite throwing a no-hitter. Carlos Marmol is imposing, and a full season from Alfonso Soriano, while unlikely, would be a boon, but there are a lot of red flags for this team already.
The Cubs fate won't seem that bad though, because Milwaukee and Houston are also primed for major letdowns. The back end of the Astros rotation is a nightmare, one that not even Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence are qualified to overcome. And it's not exactly like the Astros are going to play world class defense either. In Milwaukee, they bring back essentially the same team as last year, minus C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets of course. They will score runs, but the bullpen will be awful. Trevor Hoffman was brought in to help the 'pen, but that was a bad idea that was compounded even further when it was learned that he would start the season on the DL.
The downfall of these two teams would seem to open the door for the Reds, but unfortunately, the Reds were the one team to open the door for Willy Tavares and his career .668 OPS. It was just two years ago that the Reds had seemingly too many outfielders, but now they just have Jay Bruce. Bruce should be a star in this league, but he only hit .254 last season, and it may take him some time to fulfill his All-Star potential. In the rotation, Bronson Arroyo's ERA has risen 94 and 54 points the last two years, respectively, yet he is still penciled in as their third starter.
The disappointing thing for Pirates fans is that they might welcome a 4.77 ERA into their rotation, as the only Bucs starter to best that mark in 2008 was Paul Maholm (3.71). The Pirates will be the worst team in baseball.
NL W....W-L, Diff, Rank
LAN....87-75, +3, 8
COL....83-79, +9, 12
ARI....82-80, 0, 14
SFN....79-83, +7, 21
SDN....63-99, 0, 29
The Manny Ramirez derby this winter may have distracted a lot of people from one big problem - the Dodgers rotation isn't all that spectacular. Chad Billingsley, while good in the regular season, was last seen getting tattooed to the tune of 10 runs in five innings in the NLCS against the Phillies. He then proceeded to break his leg "slipping and falling in his driveway" in the offseason. He should be good to go for Opening Day, but he still comes with question marks. Speaking of question marks, can Randy Wolf stay healthy, can Clayton Kershaw mature, and is James McDonald really the answer in the fifth spot? Hiroki Kuroda should be solid, but doesn't get a lot of strikeouts. The lineup however, should be imposing when everyone is healthy. The weak link in the chain is either Casey Blake or Orlando Hudson, and they are both capable of having quality at-bats. Look for the offense to carry the rotation through to an above average bullpen.
2008 was a dissapointing season for Colorado, and after they jettisoned/lost Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes, national expectations are low for the boys in purple. However, with Dexter Fowler and Ian Stewart winning battles in Spring Training, the Rockies might have their best team one through 25 ever heading into 2009, despite already losing starter Jeff Francis for the season. The rotation is anchored by Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez, and while Franklin Morales and Jorge De La Rosa still have to prove that they belong, the upside of both is still high. The bullpen should be solid, as the Rockies parted ways with 2008 dissapointments Luis Vizcaino and Matt Herges, replacing them with battle-tested vet Alan Embree and new closer Huston Street. It's a good mix that will only get better when Taylor Buchholz returns from injury in May. With a now healthy Troy Tulowitzki and Todd Helton to complement rising star Chris Iannetta and the always-solid bat of Brad Hawpe, the Rockies will still put runs on the scoreboard. It likely won't be enough to overcome the Dodgers, but it will be enough to renew optimism in the Rocky Mountains. And with maturation from Jimenez, Iannetta, Fowler and Stewart, and with Jhoulys Chacin on the horizon, 2010 could see the rebirth of Rocktober.
Arizona is an enigma. They have two great starters in Brandon Webb and Daniel Haren, and promise in Max Scherzer, but much of the rest of their roster is a bit overrated. They needed to add Adam Dunn to the offense to be capable of scoring runs down the stretch in 2008, and that still wasn't enough to overcome the Manny Ramirez show in Los Angeles. Now he's gone. The Arizona bullpen was less than spectacular, and over the winter their big move was to swap out Brandon Lyon with the oft-injured Tom Gordon. Stephen Drew had a terrific season last year, but it's an open question as to how much better he can be. Along the same lines, after three full seasons - none of which saw him pile up 50 extra base hits - it may be time to stop wondering when Conor Jackson will break out. Yes, this is his age 27 season, but he's been essentially the same guy for three straight years. His OPS in 2006 was .809, and then it was .836 and .823 the next two seasons. The same can be said for Chris Young and Chris Snyder, and of course Eric Byrnes has devolved back into the same craptastic outfielder he was at the start of his career. Justin Upton will need to carry this team for them to succeed offensively, and he still may be a year away from that type of performance.
San Francisco has an outstanding rotation, but then they had an outstanding rotation last year. Randy Johnson will help make it better, and Pablo Sandoval should be an upgrade over Jose Castillo at third base. Edgar Renteria might be an upgrade at shortstop, and Travis Ishikawa should be an upgrade defensively at first, but he is unlikely to remind anyone of Barry Bonds at the dish. The rest of the team is pretty much a carbon copy of 2008's 72-win team, and that likely won't get it done.
San Diego's biggest competition will be with Pittsburgh, Detroit and Washington for the 2010 number one pick. Unfortunately for the Fathers, who have holes long-term at most positions, they still have Jake Peavy, Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Kouzmanoff, and that's more than the Pirates can claim. The pitching Chris Young, Heath Bell, Chase Headley and Jody Gerut aren't terrible, but the Padres are awful up the middle. Their double play combo may be the worst in the Majors, and they don't have a Major League quality catcher. This is not what Brian Giles had in mind when he vetoed a trade to Boston last year.
AL Playoffs:
1 TBA over 3 LAA in three games.
4 BOS over 2 CLE in four games.
1 TBA over 4 BOS in seven games.
NL Playoffs:
1 NYN over 3 LAN in five games.
2 SLN over 4 PHI in five games.
1 NYN over 2 SLN in five games.
World Series: 1 TBA over 2 NYN in six games.
World Series MVP: B.J. Upton
So there you have it! I probably won't be any more accurate in 2009 than I was in 2008 or 2007, but that is both the joy and pain (paging Rob Base!) of trying to predict something that won't resolve itself for seven months...
Just like last year, W-L is each team's predicted total, Diff is the team's difference between their actual 2008 win total and their projected 2009 total and Rank is their projected MLB rank from 1-30.
AL E....W-L, Diff, Rank
TBA....96-66, -1, 1
BOS....95-67, 0, 2
NYA....94-68, +5, 3
TOR....81-81, -5, 15
BAL....77-85, +9, 23
The three best teams in baseball all reside in one division. It really may be a coin flip for who has the best team, and which team is going to get left out of the playoffs. Each team has extra depth at starter - Boston has John Smoltz and Clay Buchholz, Tampa has David Price and Jeff Niemann and New York has Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Each team has the requisite offensive firepower and bullpen needed to take home the division title and secure home field throughout the playoffs.
Tampa should get a bounce back season from Carl Crawford, and full seasons from B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria. Their two new offensive acquisitions, Pat Burrell and Matt Joyce, should add runs to the lineup, and if Burrell is not forced to play the field, the Rays will be all the better for it. The bullpen doesn't have one star, but it is very deep.
In Boston, the bullpen is so deep that one of their prime offseason acquisitions, Japanese import Junichi Tazawa, wasn't even expected to begin the season in the Majors. The Sox are acquiring pitchers they might use in the second half before the season even starts. The big question for the Red Sox is the health of their offensive players, as the team doesn't have as much depth to replace Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew and David Ortiz if they go down again. The key here will be Rocco Baldelli. If he and Drew can combine for 162 games, the Sox will be fine. But that's a medium-to-large sized if. And for some strange reason, Jason Varitek was able to weasel his way back onto the team. I'll be surprised if he is the starting catcher in September, but for now, he still is.
For all of the potential problems the Sox have with the bottom of their roster, I believe that the Rays and Sox overcome the Yankees because of the bottom of their rosters. The Yankees have once again forgotten to align their bench talent, and find themselves ill-equipped to deal with injuries. They also are still a bit behind the other two AL East juggernauts defensively. The Yankees certainly improved their defense with the addition of Mark Teixeira, and by naming Brett Gardner as their center fielder, but I have to wonder how long Gardner is going to last. If his batting average is under .225 after a month, is Manager Joe Girardi really going to stick with him, or is he going to be tempted to plug Johnny Damon back in? We'll see.
Elsewhere in the division, I see one major difference between Toronto and Baltimore - Roy Halladay. Both teams have awful rotations (aside from Halladay) and below-average bullpens. Toronto has a better defense, and Baltimore has a better offense (or they will, as soon as they call up Matt Wieters). If Toronto ends up trading Halladay, or the O's call up Wieters sooner than expected, I can easily see the two teams flip-flopping in the standings. Nick Markakis' only competition for best outfielder in the division is Upton, and Adam Jones stands a good chance at blossoming into a 20-20 player in his second season. In addition, the O's resolved Brian Roberts' contract situation, and those three players, along with Wieters, figure to form an imposing offensive core for the next few seasons. I'm also excited to see what Felix Pie will do with extended playing time, and I am likewise excited for the (hopeful) emergence of Travis Snider and Adam Lind in Toronto.
AL C....W-L, Diff, Rank
CLE....87-75, +6, 9
MIN....83-79, -5, 10
KCA....81-81, +6, 16
CHA....76-86, -13, 25
DET....65-97, -9, 28
There is a reason that the three best teams in the AL are all in the East - the other two divisions just aren't that good this year. Last year's division champs, the Chicago White Sox, lost Orlando Cabrera, Nick Swisher and Joe Crede, and replaced them with nothing. Josh Fields was a prospect two years ago, but now is just a guy. He might play as well as Crede, but I wouldn't bet on it. And Crede isn't that good in the first place. Alexei Ramirez wasn't good defensively at second, so moving him to short probably isn't going to work out well. Second base and center field are abject nightmares, and the rotation now features the artist formerly known as Bartolo Colon. John Danks was outstanding last year, but regression should be expected. Ozzie Guillen is a terrific manager, but there are just too many holes here.
Cleveland has its own holes, but they also have a lot of things going in their favor. First, Chin-Soo Choo should be able to build on the .946 OPS he put up in limited time last season. They added Kerry Wood as closer, which aligns their talent better, as Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez are better set-up men. They added Mark DeRosa, and Victor Martinez should be back to mashing. If they receive any uptick in performance from the mysterious Travis Hafner, they could win easily, but they will probably have to battle it out with Minnesota and Kansas City.
Like the White Sox squad they faced in game #163 last season, Minnesota did not make a ton of offseason moves. While they should get an entire season of Francisco Liriano this season, they are not going to get anywhere near a full season from catcher Joe Mauer, who begins the season on the disabled list. Mauer, who is the Twins' best player, may not even be able to catch, which will be a big problem for the Twins, as they don't have another good backstop option, but do have an abundance of no-field DH types. Scott Baker was set to be their Opening Day starter before being shelved by an injury, which I'm sure isn't the way he wanted to start his season. The Twins always manage to hang around and compete, but for the third straight year, it won't be in the cards in the twin cities.
The Royals were a sleeper for the division until the other day, when they decided to hand a rotation spot to Sidney Ponson. Oops! Ponson must have pictures of somebody, because he keeps finding jobs despite the fact that he hasn't had a season ERA under 5.00 since 2003. Last year in Texas, he managed an incredibly deceiving 3.88 ERA in Texas, as he allowed a whopping 87 base runners in 55.2 innings. Ponson sort of represents the contradiction that is the Royals - they stock the team with promising prospects like Alex Gordon and Mike Aviles, but also past their prime veterans like Ponson and Kyle Farnsworth. They add good defensive players like Coco Crisp, but also butchers like Mike Jacobs. Zack Greinke and Gil Meche form a solid base for the front of their rotation, and Juan Cruz and Joakim Soria the same for the bullpen, but the Royals have more work to do. Everyone seems to be high on Kyle Davies, but until August 28, his ERA for the season was 4.81, and 5.84 for his career. I need to see more than six starts at the end of the season when the team was out of contention to get excited about him.
As for Detroit, they're pretty much a train wreck. 20-year old Rick Porcello is penciled in as their fourth starter right now, and while Porcello will no doubt be a very good pitcher, it's unlikely that 2009 will be his real coming-out party. Detroit simply has zero pitching beyond Justin Verlander, and he got destroyed in the second half last season. They will score runs, but not enough, and if they have to trade Miguel Cabrera midseason, a long season will be even longer. Two years ago, everyone in baseball was praising Dave Dombrowski for his marvelous Motown rebuilding job, but by the end of this season, Detroit will be a lot closer to their 2003-2004 incarnation than the 2006-2007 one.
AL W....W-L, Diff, Rank
LAA....83-79, -17, 11
OAK....79-83, +4, 19
TEX....79-83, 0, 20
SEA....77-85, +16, 22
This division could be the worst in baseball this year. It says a lot when one team is projected to do 17 wins worse than the year before, and still win the division. The top three members of their rotation - John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders - all may miss significant time with injury, and fellow starter Kelvim Escobar will miss time as well. The braintrust made the correct decision to make Gary Matthews a very high-priced extra outfielder, but he is whining about it, which is obviously not good. Their offense and defense both have big problems. The bullpen is still a strength, but the main reason they will win the division is the fact that their competition is just not that stiff.
Oakland is the one team in the division with the most variable outcomes, and that's mainly due to their rotation. The team's top two prospects - Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill - both won rotation spots. It is rare to see that happen at the same time, and it could go very well or very poorly. Another big item that is difficult to predict is the destination of outfielder Matt Holliday. If they trade him midseason to continue bulking up their rebuild, they will probably come in under 79 wins. He is one of, if not the only, imposing presence in their lineup, and the team will not score a ton of runs without him. The third factor is the health of Justin Duchscherer. While he is unlikely to repeat his 2008 performance, he is still the ace of their staff, and the A's will need him to come back quickly following his surgery this past Tuesday. But the A's have some things going for them this year as well, starting with their new double play combo of Orlando Cabrera and Mark Ellis. In all, it just doesn't seem like the positives will outweigh the negatives this season.
Speaking of extreme positives and extreme negatives, let's talk about the Texas Rangers, where the offense is the extreme positive and the pitching is the extreme negative. The defense lies somewhere between the two extremes, but it's not going to be a great advantage. At this time next year, Neftali Feliz, Justin Smoak and perhaps Derek Holland will have been added to the Major League roster, and the Rangers will have a better chance of topping the AL West for the first time since 1999.
It might seem counter intuitive to pick a team that dealt its closer away to add 16 wins to their ledger, but the Mariners might have a truly exceptional outfield defense this season. Ichiro Suziki's surprise DL stint to start the season is a bit off-putting, but he might only miss eight to ten games. The offense won't be terribly imposing, but I saw two guys in skinny jeans at Starbucks yesterday that would be upgrades over the Mariners 2008 1B/DH combo of Richie Sexson and Jose Vidro. Russell Branyan and Ken Griffey, Jr. do not have big shoes to fill. Speaking of Griffey, statheads might not like it, but the team is likely to derive a small amount of karma from Griffey's farewell tour. This isn't as bad as Craig Biggio's last two years in Houston - Griffey can still be an effective player.
NL E....W-L, Diff, Rank
NYN....94-68, +5, 4
PHI....93-69, +1, 5
FLA....82-80, -2, 13
ATL....80-82, +8, 17
WAS....66-96, +7, 27
Last season, the Mets received a combined 14 starts from Nelson Figueroa, Claudio Vargas, Brian Stokes, Brandon Knight and Tony Armas, as they were ill-equipped to deal with injuries to Pedro Martinez and John Maine. This season, the team has added innings eater Livan Hernandez and Tim Redding to join prospect Jonathan Niese to fill out the back end of the rotation. Redding has had shoulder discomfort in Spring Training, so Hernandez will start in the fifth spot, and while Hernandez is on the down side of his career, the Mets did win 89 games last year despite Petey's 5.61 ERa. Hernandez's biggest strength - his rubber arm - should suit the Mets just fine. One of the reasons for that is the newly revamped bullpen. Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz made a habit of dominating AL hitters, and now will be able to feast on weaker competition in the NL. The Mets are far from perfect; they still could stand to upgrade their corner outfielders and catchers, and are a classic boom or bust team. But after two years of September busting it's a fair bet that the Mets will stay glued together in 2009, and the results will be enough to erase the headaches their fans feel when they look at the ticketing map of the new Citi Field.
That's not to say that Philadelphia is going to go down quietly. But there are a couple of factors working against Philly this season. First, perfection doesn't happen too often, so expecting Brad Lidge to repeat his perfect season in terms of converting save opportunities is folly. Second, the signing of Raul Ibanez made the team incredibly left-handed, which probably isn't a good thing. Third, Cole Hamels is already showing signs of wear and tear, and the season hasn't even started yet. Retread Chan Ho Park winning the fifth spot in the rotation underscores just how important Hamels is to this rotation. The Phillies 2008 NLCS and World Series MVP can't miss mch time, or the Fightin's could be in serious trouble.
The soon to be Miami Marlins will do what they usually do - pinch pennies that will deny a possible championship core its chance to win said championship. Hanley Ramirez may be the best player in baseball, and if he's not, he's in the top three. Cameron Maybin is the stud the Marlins have been waiting for in center, and Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson and Chris Volstad form an impressive trio at the front of the rotation. Anibal Sanchez and Andrew Miller have their merits, and were once hyped prospects. Second baseman Dan Uggla and closer Matt Lindstrom round out an impressive foundation, and though I could see this team winning 90 games, things just never seem to go smoothly for them. Case in point - they were still building the roster on April 1, trading for pitcher Hayden Penn and corner-man Ross Gload.
Atlanta should have been better than they were last year, but Jeff Francoeur imploded and was even demoted to Double-A for a stretch. Yet there he is again, atop the Braves' right-field depth chart. Manning the other corner is Garrett Anderson. That's not going to end well. And as good as the front four of the rotation may be, with Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Javier Vazquez and Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami, the Braves.com depth chart currently lists no fifth starter, since the man nominally expected to fill that role - Tom Glavine - is already on the DL. The bullpen is similarly held together by tape and glue, as Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano and Peter Moylan are imposing but fragile. The infield should be among the NL's best, and rookie Jordan Schafer offers promise in center, and the Braves could hop scotch over the Fish into third, but I'm not holding my breath.
As for Washington, they are simply too dysfunctional to hope to compete. Growth from the likes of Lastings Milledge, Ryan Zimmerman, Jesus Flores, Jordan Zimmerman and Elijah Dukes is all the hope the Nats will be able to muster this season. Of course, if they play Austin Kearns over Dukes, it will be hard for him to make any progress.
NL C....W-L, Diff, Rank
SLN....90-72, +4, 6
CHN....88-74, -9, 7
MIL....80-82, -10, 18
CIN....77-85, +3, 24
HOU....72-90, -14, 26
PIT....61-101, -6, 30
Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are back. Khalil Greene is on the scene. Rick Ankiel should play the whole season, and if Colby Rasmus forces his way onto the roster, the long, painful Chris Duncan experiment should draw to a close. Not having Troy Glaus around to open the season is a detriment, but the Cards should hang around long enough to win this year. That's because things are not going to go well in Wrigleyville.
Milton Bradley in the outfield? Kevin Gregg as the closer? Really? The Fukudome/Johnson platoon in center isn't going to inspire fear. Rich Harden is always a prime candidate to break down, and surprisingly, so is Carlos Zambrano, whose ERA the last two months was a whopping 7.28 despite throwing a no-hitter. Carlos Marmol is imposing, and a full season from Alfonso Soriano, while unlikely, would be a boon, but there are a lot of red flags for this team already.
The Cubs fate won't seem that bad though, because Milwaukee and Houston are also primed for major letdowns. The back end of the Astros rotation is a nightmare, one that not even Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence are qualified to overcome. And it's not exactly like the Astros are going to play world class defense either. In Milwaukee, they bring back essentially the same team as last year, minus C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets of course. They will score runs, but the bullpen will be awful. Trevor Hoffman was brought in to help the 'pen, but that was a bad idea that was compounded even further when it was learned that he would start the season on the DL.
The downfall of these two teams would seem to open the door for the Reds, but unfortunately, the Reds were the one team to open the door for Willy Tavares and his career .668 OPS. It was just two years ago that the Reds had seemingly too many outfielders, but now they just have Jay Bruce. Bruce should be a star in this league, but he only hit .254 last season, and it may take him some time to fulfill his All-Star potential. In the rotation, Bronson Arroyo's ERA has risen 94 and 54 points the last two years, respectively, yet he is still penciled in as their third starter.
The disappointing thing for Pirates fans is that they might welcome a 4.77 ERA into their rotation, as the only Bucs starter to best that mark in 2008 was Paul Maholm (3.71). The Pirates will be the worst team in baseball.
NL W....W-L, Diff, Rank
LAN....87-75, +3, 8
COL....83-79, +9, 12
ARI....82-80, 0, 14
SFN....79-83, +7, 21
SDN....63-99, 0, 29
The Manny Ramirez derby this winter may have distracted a lot of people from one big problem - the Dodgers rotation isn't all that spectacular. Chad Billingsley, while good in the regular season, was last seen getting tattooed to the tune of 10 runs in five innings in the NLCS against the Phillies. He then proceeded to break his leg "slipping and falling in his driveway" in the offseason. He should be good to go for Opening Day, but he still comes with question marks. Speaking of question marks, can Randy Wolf stay healthy, can Clayton Kershaw mature, and is James McDonald really the answer in the fifth spot? Hiroki Kuroda should be solid, but doesn't get a lot of strikeouts. The lineup however, should be imposing when everyone is healthy. The weak link in the chain is either Casey Blake or Orlando Hudson, and they are both capable of having quality at-bats. Look for the offense to carry the rotation through to an above average bullpen.
2008 was a dissapointing season for Colorado, and after they jettisoned/lost Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes, national expectations are low for the boys in purple. However, with Dexter Fowler and Ian Stewart winning battles in Spring Training, the Rockies might have their best team one through 25 ever heading into 2009, despite already losing starter Jeff Francis for the season. The rotation is anchored by Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez, and while Franklin Morales and Jorge De La Rosa still have to prove that they belong, the upside of both is still high. The bullpen should be solid, as the Rockies parted ways with 2008 dissapointments Luis Vizcaino and Matt Herges, replacing them with battle-tested vet Alan Embree and new closer Huston Street. It's a good mix that will only get better when Taylor Buchholz returns from injury in May. With a now healthy Troy Tulowitzki and Todd Helton to complement rising star Chris Iannetta and the always-solid bat of Brad Hawpe, the Rockies will still put runs on the scoreboard. It likely won't be enough to overcome the Dodgers, but it will be enough to renew optimism in the Rocky Mountains. And with maturation from Jimenez, Iannetta, Fowler and Stewart, and with Jhoulys Chacin on the horizon, 2010 could see the rebirth of Rocktober.
Arizona is an enigma. They have two great starters in Brandon Webb and Daniel Haren, and promise in Max Scherzer, but much of the rest of their roster is a bit overrated. They needed to add Adam Dunn to the offense to be capable of scoring runs down the stretch in 2008, and that still wasn't enough to overcome the Manny Ramirez show in Los Angeles. Now he's gone. The Arizona bullpen was less than spectacular, and over the winter their big move was to swap out Brandon Lyon with the oft-injured Tom Gordon. Stephen Drew had a terrific season last year, but it's an open question as to how much better he can be. Along the same lines, after three full seasons - none of which saw him pile up 50 extra base hits - it may be time to stop wondering when Conor Jackson will break out. Yes, this is his age 27 season, but he's been essentially the same guy for three straight years. His OPS in 2006 was .809, and then it was .836 and .823 the next two seasons. The same can be said for Chris Young and Chris Snyder, and of course Eric Byrnes has devolved back into the same craptastic outfielder he was at the start of his career. Justin Upton will need to carry this team for them to succeed offensively, and he still may be a year away from that type of performance.
San Francisco has an outstanding rotation, but then they had an outstanding rotation last year. Randy Johnson will help make it better, and Pablo Sandoval should be an upgrade over Jose Castillo at third base. Edgar Renteria might be an upgrade at shortstop, and Travis Ishikawa should be an upgrade defensively at first, but he is unlikely to remind anyone of Barry Bonds at the dish. The rest of the team is pretty much a carbon copy of 2008's 72-win team, and that likely won't get it done.
San Diego's biggest competition will be with Pittsburgh, Detroit and Washington for the 2010 number one pick. Unfortunately for the Fathers, who have holes long-term at most positions, they still have Jake Peavy, Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Kouzmanoff, and that's more than the Pirates can claim. The pitching Chris Young, Heath Bell, Chase Headley and Jody Gerut aren't terrible, but the Padres are awful up the middle. Their double play combo may be the worst in the Majors, and they don't have a Major League quality catcher. This is not what Brian Giles had in mind when he vetoed a trade to Boston last year.
AL Playoffs:
1 TBA over 3 LAA in three games.
4 BOS over 2 CLE in four games.
1 TBA over 4 BOS in seven games.
NL Playoffs:
1 NYN over 3 LAN in five games.
2 SLN over 4 PHI in five games.
1 NYN over 2 SLN in five games.
World Series: 1 TBA over 2 NYN in six games.
World Series MVP: B.J. Upton
So there you have it! I probably won't be any more accurate in 2009 than I was in 2008 or 2007, but that is both the joy and pain (paging Rob Base!) of trying to predict something that won't resolve itself for seven months...