Who Could Use Manny Ramirez?

We've seen this before. The last time Manny Ramirez was a free agent, his agent Scott Boras dragged out the process until March, before Ramirez resigned with the Dodgers. At the time, he was coming off a torrid second half after joining the Dodgers, and parlayed that into a two-year, $40 million deal. Since then, Manny has seemingly been in decline. However, had he accumulated enough plate appearances to qualify for leader boards last year, Ramirez's .409 OBP would have ranked fifth in the Majors, behind only Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. In case you forgot, these were the top two finishers in each league's MVP race last season. By advanced metrics, he did well also - a .330 TAv with the Dodgers, and a .286 mark in limited action with the White Sox. His wOBA of .382 ranked 23rd in the Majors (minimum 300 PAs). The power might not be where it once was, but Ramirez still gets on base at an extraordinary clip. And his on-base numbers weren't overly inflated by intentional walks, as he only had four last year. Bottom line, a lot of teams could use Ramirez's on-base prowess, and if his power comes back at all, he could easily be a steal on a one-year, $10 million, two year, $25 million type deal.

But while there are plenty of teams that could use him, like the Giants for instance, there aren't a lot of teams that can conceivably fit him on their roster. For instance, the Giants outfield already has Mark DeRosa, Pat Burrell, Cody Ross, Andres Torres and Aaron Rowand, so they probably aren't going to be in on Ramirez. Here are the teams that could use his bat and have room for him, from worst fit to best fit:

10. Atlanta: Atlanta still needs a bat, but it's not obvious where the fit is here. The one opening is center field, as Nate McLouth shouldn't be handed a job at this point. But moving Heyward or Prado to center is a tricky proposition. You could stick Ramirez at first as well, but then that's blocking Freddie Freeman. Not the end of the world certainly, but then again, Ramirez has never played first.
9. Chicago Cubs: Kosuke Fukudome was actually been a poor man's version of Ramirez's 2010 season offensively, but with better defense, so the fit here isn't tremendous. But it's the kind of situation you could see Ramirez thriving in, and it's the kind of deal you could see Jim
8. San Diego: Will Venable probably shouldn't be handed the right field job. The Pads could easily slide Ryan Ludwick from left field to right, and plug Ramirez in. I have San Diego ranked a little lower since they are less likely to contend this season given the trade of Adrian Gonzalez, though I love how the Pads have remade their up the middle positions this winter. In fact, look for an article on that soon.
7. Colorado: The Rockies spent the last two months of the season claiming Seth Smith didn't deserve a starting job, and Ryan Spilborghs has certainly shown himself not capable of holding down a starting job. The Rockies also went out and signed Ty Wigginton this offseason, but Wigginton, to be polite, is not the answer there either. So the Rockies do have an outfield hole. The Rox could easily slide Gonzalez over to right field and plug Ramirez into left. But file that under "probably won't happen."
6. Tampa Bay: Matt Joyce at DH is probably fine. Desmond Jennings in LF is probably fine. Sean Rodriguez at second base is probably fine, thereby lessening the need for Ben Zobrist to log infield duty. But if the Rays want to protect any of those players, Ramirez and his .623 career SLG at Tropicana Field would fit well there.
5. Philadelphia: The Phillies are clearly pushing all in this season. So it really doesn't make a lot of sense that they will have an ancient Raul Ibanez in one outfield corner and a rookie (Dominic Brown) in the other. And since both hit left-handed, Ramirez would make a perfect platoon partner.
4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Their listed DH's are Mike Napoli and Howie Kendrick, who ostensibly have other positions. Peter Bourjos dominated Triple-A last season, but his 193 Major League PA's were uninspiring to say the least, so he may not be ready to handle center full-time, which would push Torrii Hunter back to the middle. Couple that with the fact that the Angels have been left out in the cold this winter, and they may start to feel pressure to do something here. That something really should be Adrian Beltre, but the Halos have so little offense that they have room for both. Originally, I had Anaheim first, but I bumped them back to fourth due to Juan Rivera, who lessens Ramirez's outfield value to the Halos.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers could actually use Ramirez back at Chavez Ravine, unless they really are planning on running out Jay Gibbons and Tony Gwynn, Jr. in left field in 2011.
2. Texas: This is probably my favorite fit. I realize the Rangers just played this game with Vlad The Impaler last season, but even with his balky hamstrings, Ramirez is more mobile than Guerrero was, making him less of an albatross in games in National League parks, or just when other guys need a day off. With Josh Hamilton still more than capable of manning center field, Ramirez and David Murphy could trade off playing left and DH'ing, with Julio Borbon getting fill-in starts in center when Hamilton needs a breather.
1. Detroit: Brennan Boesch is not the answer in left field, nor is Ryan Raburn. The Tigers have spent some coin this offseason, but are still an underdog to the White Sox, and perhaps to the Twins as well, depending on how Justin Morneau comes back. On days that Ramirez needed to rest his legs, you could let him DH, give Boesch or Raburn a spot start, and slide Victor Martinez back behind the dish. A lineup core of Cabrera, Martinez, Ramirez and Magglio Ordonez would be pretty tasty, and would rival what the White Sox are putting on the field.

So there you have it - ten teams that could use Manny Ramirez this offseason. Who will it be? Hopefully, this time we find out before March.

Madison Square Garden

This is a little belated, but last Friday night I got to drink in Madison Square Garden for the first time. I was in town to see family, and was swinging into the city at the last minute for an interview with what turned out to be my future employer. When I told my good friend and college roommate Kevin of my impending arrival, he said, 'boy, too bad the prices for the Heat-Knicks game are so expensive, that would be fun to go to.' I agreed, and we moved on. Thirty minutes later, he emailed that he had found tickets. So much for them being too expensive - though he wouldn't tell me how much he paid. Like I cared - I was going to my first game at MSG! And it was against the Heat, so I didn't even have to root against the Knicks, which was a double bonus (like a double rainbow, but not as fruity).

I finished my interview just in time to change and hustle over to the Garden. The first impressive thing? Security. They managed to inspect everyone coming through without creating a traffic jam, an impressive feat for an outfit in New York City. Tickets - same thing. Everyone got right in. We were on the escalators for what seemed like forever, but then we realized we had actually gone up one level too far.

After getting to the right level, we decided to grab a beer and head for our seats. The beers were $9 a piece, which was steep, but I gladly picked them up seeing as how Kevin had sprung for the tickets. Our seats were in the very last row of the 300 level, but the view was still more than good. A couple of people around me were using binoculars, but I thought that was pointless. Even from the distance, and with my poor eyesight, I could read the names and numbers on the backs of the player's jerseys. That may have been the best part of MSG right there. Even in the bad seats, you were still pretty much right on top of the action. When the crowd got loud at the start of the game, it was absolutely electric.

The first quarter was filled with lead changes, exciting dunks and breathtaking threes. The Knicks got down a bit at the end of the quarter, and sensing that it might be time for the starters to take a breather, I grabbed the opportunity to get us food (and more beer of course). I ended up missing the first five minutes of the quarter, as I ordered hot dogs that still needed some time to cook, but the girl behind the register, Renee R., was incredibly polite about the situation. I dare say that I have rarely, if ever, received better customer service at a sports venue. At this point, I was basically ready to give MSG a solid A - good seating bowl, good atmosphere, good service, good times. I wish I could say the same for the Knicks.

After mounting a furious comeback to tie the game at halftime, the Knicks came out ice cold in the second half. Amar'e Stoudemire wouldn't drive the lane, which is a major issue for the Knicks. He is their only inside prescience, and when he is settling for 15-foot jumpers, it clogs up the perimeter and makes it harder for the Knicks' wing players to score. And that's exactly what happened. The Knicks were outscored 33-17 in the third quarter, and the Heat cruised from there. Looking at the box score afterward on Kevin's phone, we were amazed that LeBron James was credited with nine misses, because it didn't seem like he had missed all game. Without Stoudemire unwilling to kick it up a notch, the Knicks were forced to turn to Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler, and they were no match for LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. But while on the hardwood, the Knicks didn't fulfill their expectations, everywhere else, MSG certainly lived up to its billing as the "most famous arena in the world."

The Pats Pass Defense Isn't THAT Bad

Common wisdom this season is that the Patriots have an abysmal pass defense. After all, they have allowed 3,460 yards through the air, which right now, is the worst in the league, but unless the Texans allow less than 11 yards through the air it will rank 31st in the league come tomorrow morning. On a per game basis, the Pats are allowing 266 yards through the air in each game, which again, is second worst in the league. That's pretty bad, but one problem you encounter when you look at bulk stats is that they provide little context. In the Patriots case, the context is this: in 10 of the Patriots 11 wins, they have had a fourth quarter lead of 10 or more points. Pop quiz: when teams are down 10 or more points in the fourth quarter, what do they do? Answer: they throw the ball. A lot. And so it has been for the Patriots this season. Here are the yardage totals accumulated by the aforementioned 10 teams while they trailed by 10 or more in the fourth quarter against the Pats this season:

TEAM YARDS
CIN 98
BUF 70
MIA 66
SD 123
MIN 99
PIT 252
IND 90
DET 83
NYJ 47
CHI 56
TOTAL 984

The Pittsburgh total is staggering. Trailing 23-3 entering the fourth quarter, the Steelers tacked on three fourth quarter touchdowns, none of which brought them closer than 10 points behind. In fact, with the clock running out, and the Steelers down 13, with no hope of winning, the Steelers ran the clock down to zero by passing for an additional 68 yards. They reached the New England seven, which I'm sure thrilled Ben Roethlisberger fantasy owners, but did absolutely nothing to win them the game.

Altogether, these 984 passing yards allowed represent 28.44 percent of the total passing yards allowed by the Pats this season. That's a pretty large total, and one that makes the bulk total allowed seem a bit more reasonable. You can't hand waive the 984 yards. After all, they DID allow the yards, and in two cases - San Diego and Indy - legitimately allowed the teams back in the game to the point where each had a chance to tie or win in the final seconds. However, given this data, it's also not fair to say that the Pats have the worst pass defense in the league either.

Through games played yesterday, the Pats have the 5th best interception rate in the league, as they have intercepted an even 4 percent of the passes thrown against them (20 of 500). Now, they have had more opportunities, as those 500 attempts are most in the league, but they are getting to balls. Not that I'm suggesting the Pats have the 5th best pass defense in the league, I'm not. I think they fall in the 20's somewhere. Through week 13, Football Outsiders had the Pats pass defense ranked 26th, and through yesterday, the Pats yards allowed pass rank was 22nd. Neither of these are particularly sterling marks, but I think that their true rank is somewhere between those two figures. It's a young, gambling defense that can hurt the team but also generate the big play. It's among the worst in the league, but having big leads has unfairly fueled a far too negative perception of the Pats pass defense overall.

Why Is Nobody Talking About The San Antonio Spurs?

On ESPN.com, Marc Stein gets 1,811 into his "Weekend Dime" before he talks about the Spurs. On SI.com, the top 2 headlines are about Derrick Rose and George Karl, and the only columnist tackling the Spurs on their NBA page is a narrow look at Gary Neal, by Lee Jenkins. The Spurs are not one of the top five headlines right now on NBA.com. On Foxsports.com NBA page there is finally an article about the fact that the Spurs, not the Lakers, Celtics or Heat, are the only team currently on pace for 70 wins. Of course, it's buried underneath a story on Phil Jackson losing to the Bulls, and the Heat getting their groove back. Maybe it's because the Spurs are "boring." Maybe it's because no one has ever cared about Tim Duncan. Maybe it's because people are afraid to praise Tony Parker since his divorce story broke. Maybe it's because the Spurs have yet to play the big three teams. Or maybe it's because people are sleeping on the San Antonio Spurs.

The Spurs though, should be the story right now. After ripping off four straight wins, the Spurs 19-3 mark currently stands atop the NBA. There are a lot of reasons to say that it's not a fluke either. For starters, their point differential of 9.6 is tops in the league. The Spurs are third in scoring, and though they are allowing more points than a typical Spurs team, they are still a very respectable 11th in points allowed. But while allowing 97.3 points per game seems like blasphemy for the team that twice in the Popovich reign has allowed less than 85 points per game, the Spurs actually allowed 96.3 points per game last season, so this shouldn't be a huge surprise. No, the surprise is the offense. Last year's Spurs team was the first under Popovich to average more than 100 points per game, as they scored an average of 101.4. But this year's squad is blowing that out of the water, at 107.0, a mark bettered only by the run 'n' gun squads in Phoenix and New York.

Looking at the offense, this also doesn't seem like a fluke. The Spurs have scored 100 or better in 16 of their 22 contests, and there is also no ridiculous game artificially pushing their average up. Their high is 124, but that was in an overtime game. Their regular time high is 122, against the Pacers in their first game of the season. Taking the 16 games in which they've topped 100 points as a whole, they are averaging 111.6 points, and 11 of the 16 games have been within +/- five points of that average, showing just how consistent they have been. And while the schedule hasn't been brutal, it wouldn't offend Gordon Gee either. The Spurs have put up 106 on Orlando, the league's third-best defensive team (in terms of points allowed), and twice have dropped 109 on New Orleans, the league's second-best defensive team. They also dropped 117 in Oklahoma City, and 103 on the Bulls, a team that is currently being celebrated for holding the Lakers to 84.

Have the Spurs had their fair share of cream puffs on the schedule? Absolutely. They have twice beat the Clippers, Timberwolves and Warriors, and have also taken the 76ers and Cavaliers to the woodshed, so this new Spurs offensive juggernaut is far from assured over the course of 82 games. But with Richard Jefferson hooked up to the juvenation machine ($1, Simmons) Tim Duncan has been pushed to an unfathomable fourth in points per game on his own team (he's never finished lower than second). That right there is as good a reason as any to believe this will continue. The Spurs are averaging 107 points per game, and Duncan is only contributing 13.6 a game. This is a team that routinely needed 22 out of Duncan just to get to 95 a game. And while that 107 a game may eventually dip to 105 or 103, this is uncharted, and more importantly, exciting water for the Popovich-Duncan Spurs. So how come nobody is talking about it?

Examining the Red Sox Roster, Part 1

With the big news breaking that Carl Crawford is on the verge of signing a seven-year, $142 million deal with the Red Sox, it's about time we took a look at how the Red Sox 25-man roster shakes out as currently constituted. I'll include Crawford and Jason Varitek in the discussion even though their deals are not yet official. As with the piece on the Rockies, this is just focused on players currently on the team. As such, I've changed the title of the post from "handicapping" to "examining," as that seems a little more apt. Here's what I have:

1 SP Jon Lester
2 SP Clay Buchholz
3 SP Josh Beckett
4 SP John Lackey
5 SP Daisuke Matsuzaka
6 RP Jonathan Papelbon
7 RP Daniel Bard
8 RP Tim Wakefield
9 RP Scott Atchison
10 RP Felix Doubront
11 RP Stolmy Pimentel
12 RP Michael Bowden
13 C Jason Varitek
14 1B Adrian Gonzalez
15 2B Dustin Pedroia
16 3B Kevin Youkilis
17 SS Marco Scutaro
18 LF Carl Crawford
19 CF Jacoby Ellsbury
20 RF JD Drew
21 DH David Ortiz
22 Bench Jarrod Saltalamacchia
23 Bench Mike Cameron
24 Bench Darnell McDonald
25 Bench Jed Lowrie

At this point in the offseason, it's fairly plain that the bullpen is going to be an issue. The Sox are likely to pick up at least one more bullpen arm, but even if they get two more, Tim Wakefield is going to be a prized asset in the bullpen, assuming the five starters stay healthy (a big assumption). While Felix Doubront and Stolmy Pimentel were ranked by Baseball America as the 8th and 9th best prospect in the Red Sox system for 2011, I doubt they will be counted on to have an impact right away. And though Michael Bowden pitched better in September - he compiled a 3.86 ERA across 9 1/3 innings - he's been little more than an injury replacement/September call-up the last two years, so it is a stretch to think that he would be counted upon or handed a job right away either. Of course, the Sox may not have any choice.

But where there may be uncertainty on the pitching side of the equation, the offense is looking pretty stacked. They have the luxury of either trading an outfielder and slotting Kalish on to the big-league team, or simply keeping the uber-talented Kalish in Pawtucket to start the season. The team's short bench will be good to great, depending on how you feel about Saltalamacchia. And the lineup...wow:

LF Crawford
2B Pedroia
1B Gonzalez
3B Youkilis
DH Ortiz
RF Drew
C Varitek
CF Ellsbury
SS Scutaro

A second variation would have Ellsbury moving to leadoff, Crawford to fifth, and Ortiz, Drew and Varitek all moving down one spot, but I like Crawford better in the leadoff spot. Also, despite claims that the Sox would get too left-handed if they acquired both Crawford and Gonzalez, the above lineup goes L-R-L-R-L, making it damn near impossible to navigate the top of the lineup with a single reliever (unless the reliever is Mariano Rivera). It's a recipe for success the Sox used in 2003, times 15. In 2003, they were counting on castoffs like Jeremy Giambi, Bill Mueller and Ortiz. If this is indeed the top six in the Sox batting order, it's a top six that has seen each player spend time hitting third, and in the case of Crawford, Gonzalez, Ortiz and Drew, significant time. That's pretty rare. And pretty exciting, something the 2010 Sox most definitely were not.

Handicapping the Rockies Roster, Part 1

With the non-tenders last night, and the trade for Jose Lopez, here is my guesstimate for what the Rockies roster would look like if the season started today:

1 SP Ubaldo Jimenez
2 SP Jorge De La Rosa
3 SP Jhoulys Chacin
4 SP Felipe Paulino
5 SP Aaron Cook
6 RP Matt Belisle
7 RP Rafael Betancourt
8 RP Matt Daley
9 RP Franklin Morales
10 RP Matt Reynolds
11 RP Esmil Rogers
12 RP Huston Street
13 C Chris Iannetta
14 1B Todd Helton
15 2B Jonathan Herrera
16 3B Ian Stewart
17 SS Troy Tulowitzki
18 LF Seth Smith
19 CF Dexter Fowler
20 RF Carlos Gonzalez
21 Bench Michael McKenry
22 Bench Jose Lopez
23 Bench Chris Nelson
24 Bench Ryan Spilborghs
25 Bench Eric Young, Jr.

A couple of notes. This is strictly based on who is currently on the 40-man roster, with the exception of Jorge De La Rosa. While De La Rosa hasn't officially resigned, I slotted him in there anyway, as it seems that his contract has reached the formality stages.

You'll notice that Jason Hammel is not listed. My early prediction is that he gets moved this winter, or loses his spot in Spring Training. He could end up in the bullpen again, but I think it's starter or bust for him, and he may net a prospect or two in a trade in late March, similar to how the Rockies acquired him in the first place.

At second, I have Herrera listed, but it really could/should be an open competition. I don't believe that the trade for Jose Lopez automatically means that he will start at second, and I think Chris Nelson deserves a look as well. Eric Young, Jr. did very little to show that he deserved a starting nod, so for me there would be a gap between him and the other three.

I think that at this point the roster is mainly set. With all of the non-tendered relievers, I could see a reliever being added to challenge Daley and Rogers, and I hope to see another starter added to challenge Cook, Hammel and Paulino. I think it is likely that a back-up catcher could factor in, though I would stick with McKenry and spread the extra money around elsewhere. Finally, another bench bat could be added, something that would jeopardize the roster spot of Nelson or Young. I think with the trade of Barmes and the acquisition of Lopez, you have to consider Herrera safe for now, as the Rockies don't have another legit backup shortstop. The last time Lopez played shortstop was 2004, so I don't think he is a viable option there.

I'll look to update this more with each passing transaction. Also, look for a similar series of posts on the Red Sox roster soon.

Bobby Jenks

Since leaving the Rockies organization to embark on my new venture as stay-at-home dad/freelance writer, I've been in a frenzy trying to line up things to do with my son as well as possible gigs, and I really need to write up how that all came to fruition, which I will attempt to do soon. But in the interim, I haven't been paying rapt attention to my Twitter feed, so I'm a little behind on who has and has not been tendered. But one name that caught my attention this afternoon was Bobby Jenks.

Jenks seems to have fallen into the arbitration trap that teams so frequently face. He was clearly going to get a raise based on his season last year - he had enough innings pitched, and had 27+ saves for a fifth consecutive season. No matter what your opinion of his true value is, in arbitration you can only use the facts of the situation, and for relievers, the two most important factors are service time/playing time and role (closer, set-up, middle, mop-up). Jenks was going to get a raise.

Chicago didn't need to pay for that. Reports already have Matt Thornton listed as his possible successor, and Ozzie Guillen and Don Cooper have always built strong bullpens. The $9-10 million Jenks would have cost them in arbitration is probably best served being spent elsewhere, especially if Paul Konerko really does want to live closer to home in Arizona (or if they need that money for Adam Dunn). But this doesn't mean that Jenks can't be an effective reliever somewhere else at a lower price.

Looking at Jenks 2010 season, he didn't rank well in metrics like WXRL, WARP, VORP, or fWAR. His walk rate was up, and his ERA+ of 99 was a career low, and he is now two years removed from what looks like a two year peak - he had WARP's of 4.9 and 3.9 in '07 and '08, nothing higher than 2.1 in any other year. But there are also a lot of positive indicators for Jenks going forward.

For starters, he will only be 30 years old next season and has saved 27+ games in one of the largest markets in the country. There are a number of others. Let's do this bullet point style:

- His BABIP last year was .368, which was easily a career high. Looking at his batted ball data however, this scream fluke - as his line drive rate wasn't significantly higher than in any other year, and his ground ball rate was up while his fly ball rate was down. Generally, that would be a recipe for a lower BABIP. For whatever reason, his balls found holes last year. This could be related to the fact that Jenks for the first time started mixing in a changeup last year - 6.5% of the time. But his average fastball velocity didn't dip it wouldn't seem on the surface that he worked in the change up to cover for a lack of pop in his heater.
- His K/9 and K/BB rates were each the second best rates of his career.
- He only allowed three home runs despite playing in a homeriffic ballpark, and 2 of them came at the hands of the Blue Jays, who in case you hadn't heard, hit a lot of home runs last year.
- His xFIP of 2.62 was the lowest of his career and his FIP of 2.59 was only .03 off his career high ('07).

Is Bobby Jenks worth a 3 year, $22 million deal? Maybe not, but for the right price, he could absolutely be an asset for someone next season. As an aside, I also wonder if he is a victim of the hot stove's new sped-up timeline. Probably not, as he wasn't going to be worth $9-10 million this week or two weeks from now, but perhaps the quicker deadlines were a factor, if not for him, for other tender/non-tender candidates. Finally, does Jenks being on the market reduce what is seemingly already a thin trade market for Jonathan Papelbon? I would certainly think so.

Last note - looking into a new blog site. Wordpress was recommended to me. Drop me a line on Twitter - @Swydan - if you have another suggestion. Thanks!