Pats Three Questions - Week 2

Highlights - Yes, there were some. For starters, Mike Wright's strip sack on the first play from scrimmage. Secondly, despite the problems that the Pats had with the Jets pass rush, the Pats had the ball for an equal amount of time and gained more yards than did the Jets. Another highlight, sort of like a back-handed compliment I suppose, was how Randy Moss pursued Darrelle Revis after the interception. He didn't let up, and tackled Revis before he was able to get any kind of return going. Finally, the Pats were able to effectively stop the run. Yes, the Jets gained 117 yards on the ground, but at only a 3.8 clip.

Lowlights - The number one reverse highlight has to be how the Pats responded to the Jets taking the lead. Given 9:43 at the end of the game, the Patriots of old would have easily tied the game. Instead the Pats gained 49 yards on three drives and failed to get even into Jets territory. Outside of that, Tom Brady played like the offensive line in front of him was the London Sillynannies. And unfortunately, that wasn't that far off. Also, the play-calling was once again horrendous. The Jets talked all week about bringing pressure, and then did exactly that, but somehow the Pats were unprepared. They consistently failed to disguise what they were doing on offense (or defense for that matter) and were unable to deal protect Brady, who became so skittish that he was throwing off his back foot even when he wasn't in danger of being hit.

Question of the Week - How do the Pats right the ship? Fortunately, the answers are within reach. 1) Improve the play-calling. 2) Converting in the red zone. 3) Get the secondary involved.

1) I realize that the goal of the shotgun offense is to give Brady more time to survey the field, but the downside is that everyone knows what you're going to do. The Patriots need to run a little more from under center, and they need to run a little more two tight end offense. The wide receiver depth on the team is down, especially with Welker's balky knee, so to spread the field with four receivers so frequently is not even playing to the team's strengths. Furthermore, with the defense searching for an identity, it would behoove the offense to try and play a little more ball control. Secondly, it is important not to overreact. As mentioned, the Pats had the ball longer than the Jets, and had more total yards than the Jets.

2) The main problem in the Pats first two games has not been gaining yards, but rather executing in the red zone. Stephen Gostkowski kicked two field goals from closer than 30 yards in in each game. That needs to change. It CAN change.

3) Get the secondary involved. The Pats have managed to sack the quarterback six times in the first two games, so there has been a pass rush. But it has all come from the front seven. The Pats need to be able to drop linebackers into coverage and blitz with members of the secondary. One of the hallmarks of the Rodney Harrison Pats was his ability to come with a perfectly timed blitz at just the right time. The Pats are lacking that element of surprise right now. Brandon Meriweather is performing well, and James Sanders has been trusted in the past. Leigh Bodden and Shawn Springs have made their bones as man-to-man defenders, and the fact that Darius Butler has been on the field in the fourth quarter during each of the first two games is an encouraging sign for his development. Jonathan Wilhite has shown flashes as well, though he and Brandon McGowan did get their wires crossed on the Jets touchdown yesterday. But the bottom line is that the Pats have become far too predictable on defense. In order to get feisty, to get a little unpredictable, they will need to trust the secondary a little more and get them more involved in the team defense.

Pats Three Questions - Week 1

Welcome to a new feature at Faster than a Speeding Homer. Each week, I will put up a quick post on that week's Patriots game in three parts: 1) highlights, 2) lowlights and 3) a question chosen by a friend of mine, to be determined at random each week. Keep in mind that these are thoughts mainly off the top of my head that were/will be recorded the night of or morning after the game each week.

1) Highlights - My number one highlight was the last TD throw by Brady. It was down the middle, a 20+ yard throw, and had to be in a specific location to be caught, specifically Ben Watson's back shoulder. It was a great throw that Pats fans are used to seeing Tom Brady make, but had been missing for most of the game. My number two highlight was the fumble cause by Pierre Woods (and Brandon Meriweather) and recovered by Stephen Gostkowski. Kickoff returns happen very fast, and to have so many guys come together so quickly and make that play happen speaks well of the special teams this season. In addition, it's so rare that you see a kick returner hit squarely the way Meriweather hit him. Usually, players get tripped, or pushed in the side, etc.

Other highlights include: the pass rush in the second half, Darius Butler’s play in the fourth quarter, the game opening kick return by Laurence Maroney, and the running game (minus draw plays from shotgun) on first and second down.

2) Lowlights - The number one lowlight pass coverage of the running backs and tight ends. Both of Buffalo's offensive TD's were to this group. I understand that Belichick's game plan was to take away Lee Evans and Terrell Owens, and that that game plan mostly worked. But given the relative inexperience of some of the Pats' cornerbacks, this won't be the last wide receivers on whom the Pats need to roll coverage. So it is imperative that the linebackers get better in coverage. With Jerod Mayo out for awhile, this issue will be exacerbated.

My number two lowlight was the play-calling in the running game and in short yardage situations. Far, far, far too many shotgun draws were called. Two to three years ago, these fooled people. They also fool people when you are mixing and matching your running plays and your formations. But too frequently, the Pats just lined up in the shotgun, and the running plays were predictable. Furthermore, the play-calling in short yardage was far too passive. Specifically, the first fourth and inches when Maroney got stuffed behind the line. In years past, that was a Brady QB sneak every single time. And I think fans will rightly have fears about his knee until he can get back to running QB sneaks.

Other lowlights include Gostkowski's rare missed field goal, the decision to kick the field goal when down 17-10, and the two missed two-point conversions at the end of the game. Oh, and Matt Light's continued impersonation of a matador in the first half. Thankfully, Matt (not Todd Light, Mr. Gruden) remembered he was playing football in the second half.

3) Question of the Week - What calls do you feel the refs blew? The two roughing the passer calls were tremendously poor calls that swung the game significantly in Buffalo's favor. One turned a second-and-20 on the Bills 11-yard line to a first-and-10 on the 26. They got a 15-yard pass to Jackson on the next play and they were rolling. The second call turned what would have been a second-and-20 on the Bills 36 - which would have knocked them out of field goal range - into a first-and-10 on the cusp of the red zone. The Bills scored a touchdown five plays later, when they may have done no better than a field goal. And not only were the penalties extremely meaningful in the game, they were also the wrong call. So many people have already commented on this, so there isn't much need to go into detail, but the two calls mixed unnecessary rules with poor interpretation of said rules. It was very frustrating to watch.

There it is, down and dirty. Check back in for more each week!

NFL '09 - Just In Time

Wow, did this come down to the wire. I have been making my own picks since middle school, and every year I wonder if I will fail to make them in time, or even make them at all, but the dream didn't die this year. Technically, I am already late, but that Thursday night game isn't really the start of the season. Here is how they will stack up. Read it like this:

NFL Rank. Team, record - comment

AFC East
2. New England, 13-3 - Tom Brady loves it when you doubt him. This will be Brandon Meriweather's first Pro Bowl season.
21. Miami, 6-10 - The future is still bright, but a much tougher schedule will fell the Fish in '09.
24. NY Jets, 5-11 - Mark Sanchez shows promise, but the Jets good defense will not play well enough to save the raw offense.
31. Buffalo, 3-13 - Two words - unmitigated disaster.

AFC North
4. Baltimore, 12-4 - Baltimore's three-headed RB and Joe Flacco keep improving, and the O finally starts to balance with the D.
6. Pittsburgh, 12-4 - They return so many starters, but they will lose a division tiebreaker that will cost them in the playoffs.
27. Cleveland, 5-11 - Eric Mangini made the right call running with Brady Quinn, but there is a lot of rebuilding to do here.
30. Cincinnati, 4-12 - The offense should be better this year, but it would be hard to be worse. Not buying a resurgence here.

AFC South
5. Indianapolis, 12-4 - New faces abound on offense, but as long as #18 is under center, he will make them fit.
9. Jacksonville, 11-5 - Torry Holt gives David Garrard a #1 target. They were Super Bowl faves before o-line injuries ruined '08.
12. Houston, 10-6 - They keep growing, but still fall victim to the numbers game in the tough, tough AFC.
14. Tennessee, 9-7 - Kerry Collins and Chris Johnson won't fool teams in '09. They won't be bad, but aren't good enough to be great.

AFC West
1. San Diego, 13-3 - Mix an O to rival New England's, an improved D and a division constantly in flux and you have football's best.
18. Kansas City, 8-8 - Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson wreak havoc on the D-line. Scott Pioli's reign breaks even in year one.
25. Denver, 5-11 - They will win three of their first four and two of their last three, but will lose nine straight in between.
29. Oakland, 4-12 - They will go 0-8 on the road, and at least one other assistant will have his jaw broken by "Coach" Tom Cable.

NFC East
3. NY Giants, 12-4 - The passing will be better than expected, but the run will be worse. Sweeping Philly will put them on top.
16. Washington, 8-8 - A 5-8 start will doom the season, but winning the last three will save Jim Zorn's job for another season.
17. Philadelphia, 8-8 - They will be soar to a 4-1 start, but then the meltdown pundits have predicted for years will finally occur.
20. Dallas, 7-9 - This year they open a new stadium. Next year they will have a new coach.

NFC North
7. Chicago, 11-5 - This division will be surprisingly good, and will knock a win or two off the Bears mark.
10. Green Bay, 10-6 - Three losses from weeks 13-15 - home vs. BAL, away at CHI and PIT - will ruin division hopes.
11. Minnesota, 10-6 - The patented Brett Favre Fade will be in effect - Vikes will lose last three at CAR, at CHI and home vs. NYG.
26. Detroit, 5-11 - Hope is a good thing, and Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson (and Brandon Pettigrew) brings that hope.

NFC South
8. New Orleans, 11-5 - New D coordinator Gregg Williams will be big. Pierre Thomas-Reggie Bush combo should be lethal.
15. Carolina, 9-7 - Like Tennessee, they are stuck in the middle. They're still good, but other teams passed them this offseason.
22. Atlanta, 6-10 - Too fast too soon for the Dirty Birds, and now they are counting on an aging Mike Peterson to help the D? Uh, no.
32. Tampa Bay, 2-14 - Now in a full-scale rebuild, it will be a rough year. They won't win a game outside their division.

NFC West
13. Seattle, 9-7 - Like Jacksonville, injuries ruined last season. Matt Hasselbeck to T.J. Houshmandzadeh will be fun to watch.
19. St. Louis, 7-9 - In a season without sleepers, this is as close as the league will get, but the Rams will fall short of the playoffs.
23. Arizona, 6-10 - They barely made the playoffs last year, and this year the division won't be crappy enough to propel them.
28. San Francisco, 4-12 - Except for San Fran, that is. The Niners have no clue what they're doing, and it shows.

A note on "sleepers" - every year a batch of new teams make the playoffs. Pundits are used to there being "sleeper" teams every year that make the playoffs to fill out these requirements. And I suppose Jacksonville and New Orleans loosely qualify, but both have been good in the very recent past. No, this year will be more about injuries evening out, as Jacksonville, New England and Seattle get back to their 2007 forms, and knock out a lot of potential sleepers in the process.

That's not to say there won't be that batch of new teams in the playoffs, as Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Miami, Philadelphia and Tennessee will be replaced by Chicago, Green Bay, Jacksonville, New England, New Orleans and Seattle.

AFC Playoffs
3 Baltimore beats 6 Jacksonville
4 Indianapolis beats 5 Pittsburgh

2 New England beats 3 Baltimore
4 Indianapolis beats 1 San Diego

2 New England beats 4 Indianapolis

New England avenges two of its three regular season losses (the other being Week 17 in Houston) and Tom Brady reaches his fifth Super Bowl in his first nine seasons as a starter, which is better than Joe Montana did.

NFC Playoffs
3 Chicago beats 6 Minnesota
5 Green Bay beats 4 Seattle

1 NY Giants beats 5 Green Bay
3 Chicago beats 2 New Orleans

1 NY Giants beats 3 Chicago

The year of the NFC North fizzles right at the end, as the Giants find a way to overcome and reach their second Super Bowl in three seasons.

Super Bowl XLIV
New England 24 - New York Giants 16. The story of this game will be the ability to score touchdowns. Each team will score four times, but the Patriots will score three TD's and one field goal, while the Giants will be the opposite - one TD and three FG's. Tom Brady cements himself as one of the three best quarterbacks of all-time. This will also be the sixth consecutive season in which the NFL's number one team (in this case, San Diego) doesn't win the Super Bowl.

NFL '09

I have been completely slacking in making my NFL picks. I will get them up on Sunday. But for now, I think Pittsburgh will beat Tennessee tonight, and that I believe both teams will still be good this season.