Wow, did this come down to the wire. I have been making my own picks since middle school, and every year I wonder if I will fail to make them in time, or even make them at all, but the dream didn't die this year. Technically, I am already late, but that Thursday night game isn't really the start of the season. Here is how they will stack up. Read it like this:
NFL Rank. Team, record - comment
AFC East
2. New England, 13-3 - Tom Brady loves it when you doubt him. This will be Brandon Meriweather's first Pro Bowl season.
21. Miami, 6-10 - The future is still bright, but a much tougher schedule will fell the Fish in '09.
24. NY Jets, 5-11 - Mark Sanchez shows promise, but the Jets good defense will not play well enough to save the raw offense.
31. Buffalo, 3-13 - Two words - unmitigated disaster.
AFC North
4. Baltimore, 12-4 - Baltimore's three-headed RB and Joe Flacco keep improving, and the O finally starts to balance with the D.
6. Pittsburgh, 12-4 - They return so many starters, but they will lose a division tiebreaker that will cost them in the playoffs.
27. Cleveland, 5-11 - Eric Mangini made the right call running with Brady Quinn, but there is a lot of rebuilding to do here.
30. Cincinnati, 4-12 - The offense should be better this year, but it would be hard to be worse. Not buying a resurgence here.
AFC South
5. Indianapolis, 12-4 - New faces abound on offense, but as long as #18 is under center, he will make them fit.
9. Jacksonville, 11-5 - Torry Holt gives David Garrard a #1 target. They were Super Bowl faves before o-line injuries ruined '08.
12. Houston, 10-6 - They keep growing, but still fall victim to the numbers game in the tough, tough AFC.
14. Tennessee, 9-7 - Kerry Collins and Chris Johnson won't fool teams in '09. They won't be bad, but aren't good enough to be great.
AFC West
1. San Diego, 13-3 - Mix an O to rival New England's, an improved D and a division constantly in flux and you have football's best.
18. Kansas City, 8-8 - Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson wreak havoc on the D-line. Scott Pioli's reign breaks even in year one.
25. Denver, 5-11 - They will win three of their first four and two of their last three, but will lose nine straight in between.
29. Oakland, 4-12 - They will go 0-8 on the road, and at least one other assistant will have his jaw broken by "Coach" Tom Cable.
NFC East
3. NY Giants, 12-4 - The passing will be better than expected, but the run will be worse. Sweeping Philly will put them on top.
16. Washington, 8-8 - A 5-8 start will doom the season, but winning the last three will save Jim Zorn's job for another season.
17. Philadelphia, 8-8 - They will be soar to a 4-1 start, but then the meltdown pundits have predicted for years will finally occur.
20. Dallas, 7-9 - This year they open a new stadium. Next year they will have a new coach.
NFC North
7. Chicago, 11-5 - This division will be surprisingly good, and will knock a win or two off the Bears mark.
10. Green Bay, 10-6 - Three losses from weeks 13-15 - home vs. BAL, away at CHI and PIT - will ruin division hopes.
11. Minnesota, 10-6 - The patented Brett Favre Fade will be in effect - Vikes will lose last three at CAR, at CHI and home vs. NYG.
26. Detroit, 5-11 - Hope is a good thing, and Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson (and Brandon Pettigrew) brings that hope.
NFC South
8. New Orleans, 11-5 - New D coordinator Gregg Williams will be big. Pierre Thomas-Reggie Bush combo should be lethal.
15. Carolina, 9-7 - Like Tennessee, they are stuck in the middle. They're still good, but other teams passed them this offseason.
22. Atlanta, 6-10 - Too fast too soon for the Dirty Birds, and now they are counting on an aging Mike Peterson to help the D? Uh, no.
32. Tampa Bay, 2-14 - Now in a full-scale rebuild, it will be a rough year. They won't win a game outside their division.
NFC West
13. Seattle, 9-7 - Like Jacksonville, injuries ruined last season. Matt Hasselbeck to T.J. Houshmandzadeh will be fun to watch.
19. St. Louis, 7-9 - In a season without sleepers, this is as close as the league will get, but the Rams will fall short of the playoffs.
23. Arizona, 6-10 - They barely made the playoffs last year, and this year the division won't be crappy enough to propel them.
28. San Francisco, 4-12 - Except for San Fran, that is. The Niners have no clue what they're doing, and it shows.
A note on "sleepers" - every year a batch of new teams make the playoffs. Pundits are used to there being "sleeper" teams every year that make the playoffs to fill out these requirements. And I suppose Jacksonville and New Orleans loosely qualify, but both have been good in the very recent past. No, this year will be more about injuries evening out, as Jacksonville, New England and Seattle get back to their 2007 forms, and knock out a lot of potential sleepers in the process.
That's not to say there won't be that batch of new teams in the playoffs, as Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Miami, Philadelphia and Tennessee will be replaced by Chicago, Green Bay, Jacksonville, New England, New Orleans and Seattle.
AFC Playoffs
3 Baltimore beats 6 Jacksonville
4 Indianapolis beats 5 Pittsburgh
2 New England beats 3 Baltimore
4 Indianapolis beats 1 San Diego
2 New England beats 4 Indianapolis
New England avenges two of its three regular season losses (the other being Week 17 in Houston) and Tom Brady reaches his fifth Super Bowl in his first nine seasons as a starter, which is better than Joe Montana did.
NFC Playoffs
3 Chicago beats 6 Minnesota
5 Green Bay beats 4 Seattle
1 NY Giants beats 5 Green Bay
3 Chicago beats 2 New Orleans
1 NY Giants beats 3 Chicago
The year of the NFC North fizzles right at the end, as the Giants find a way to overcome and reach their second Super Bowl in three seasons.
Super Bowl XLIV
New England 24 - New York Giants 16. The story of this game will be the ability to score touchdowns. Each team will score four times, but the Patriots will score three TD's and one field goal, while the Giants will be the opposite - one TD and three FG's. Tom Brady cements himself as one of the three best quarterbacks of all-time. This will also be the sixth consecutive season in which the NFL's number one team (in this case, San Diego) doesn't win the Super Bowl.
NFL Rank. Team, record - comment
AFC East
2. New England, 13-3 - Tom Brady loves it when you doubt him. This will be Brandon Meriweather's first Pro Bowl season.
21. Miami, 6-10 - The future is still bright, but a much tougher schedule will fell the Fish in '09.
24. NY Jets, 5-11 - Mark Sanchez shows promise, but the Jets good defense will not play well enough to save the raw offense.
31. Buffalo, 3-13 - Two words - unmitigated disaster.
AFC North
4. Baltimore, 12-4 - Baltimore's three-headed RB and Joe Flacco keep improving, and the O finally starts to balance with the D.
6. Pittsburgh, 12-4 - They return so many starters, but they will lose a division tiebreaker that will cost them in the playoffs.
27. Cleveland, 5-11 - Eric Mangini made the right call running with Brady Quinn, but there is a lot of rebuilding to do here.
30. Cincinnati, 4-12 - The offense should be better this year, but it would be hard to be worse. Not buying a resurgence here.
AFC South
5. Indianapolis, 12-4 - New faces abound on offense, but as long as #18 is under center, he will make them fit.
9. Jacksonville, 11-5 - Torry Holt gives David Garrard a #1 target. They were Super Bowl faves before o-line injuries ruined '08.
12. Houston, 10-6 - They keep growing, but still fall victim to the numbers game in the tough, tough AFC.
14. Tennessee, 9-7 - Kerry Collins and Chris Johnson won't fool teams in '09. They won't be bad, but aren't good enough to be great.
AFC West
1. San Diego, 13-3 - Mix an O to rival New England's, an improved D and a division constantly in flux and you have football's best.
18. Kansas City, 8-8 - Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson wreak havoc on the D-line. Scott Pioli's reign breaks even in year one.
25. Denver, 5-11 - They will win three of their first four and two of their last three, but will lose nine straight in between.
29. Oakland, 4-12 - They will go 0-8 on the road, and at least one other assistant will have his jaw broken by "Coach" Tom Cable.
NFC East
3. NY Giants, 12-4 - The passing will be better than expected, but the run will be worse. Sweeping Philly will put them on top.
16. Washington, 8-8 - A 5-8 start will doom the season, but winning the last three will save Jim Zorn's job for another season.
17. Philadelphia, 8-8 - They will be soar to a 4-1 start, but then the meltdown pundits have predicted for years will finally occur.
20. Dallas, 7-9 - This year they open a new stadium. Next year they will have a new coach.
NFC North
7. Chicago, 11-5 - This division will be surprisingly good, and will knock a win or two off the Bears mark.
10. Green Bay, 10-6 - Three losses from weeks 13-15 - home vs. BAL, away at CHI and PIT - will ruin division hopes.
11. Minnesota, 10-6 - The patented Brett Favre Fade will be in effect - Vikes will lose last three at CAR, at CHI and home vs. NYG.
26. Detroit, 5-11 - Hope is a good thing, and Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson (and Brandon Pettigrew) brings that hope.
NFC South
8. New Orleans, 11-5 - New D coordinator Gregg Williams will be big. Pierre Thomas-Reggie Bush combo should be lethal.
15. Carolina, 9-7 - Like Tennessee, they are stuck in the middle. They're still good, but other teams passed them this offseason.
22. Atlanta, 6-10 - Too fast too soon for the Dirty Birds, and now they are counting on an aging Mike Peterson to help the D? Uh, no.
32. Tampa Bay, 2-14 - Now in a full-scale rebuild, it will be a rough year. They won't win a game outside their division.
NFC West
13. Seattle, 9-7 - Like Jacksonville, injuries ruined last season. Matt Hasselbeck to T.J. Houshmandzadeh will be fun to watch.
19. St. Louis, 7-9 - In a season without sleepers, this is as close as the league will get, but the Rams will fall short of the playoffs.
23. Arizona, 6-10 - They barely made the playoffs last year, and this year the division won't be crappy enough to propel them.
28. San Francisco, 4-12 - Except for San Fran, that is. The Niners have no clue what they're doing, and it shows.
A note on "sleepers" - every year a batch of new teams make the playoffs. Pundits are used to there being "sleeper" teams every year that make the playoffs to fill out these requirements. And I suppose Jacksonville and New Orleans loosely qualify, but both have been good in the very recent past. No, this year will be more about injuries evening out, as Jacksonville, New England and Seattle get back to their 2007 forms, and knock out a lot of potential sleepers in the process.
That's not to say there won't be that batch of new teams in the playoffs, as Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Miami, Philadelphia and Tennessee will be replaced by Chicago, Green Bay, Jacksonville, New England, New Orleans and Seattle.
AFC Playoffs
3 Baltimore beats 6 Jacksonville
4 Indianapolis beats 5 Pittsburgh
2 New England beats 3 Baltimore
4 Indianapolis beats 1 San Diego
2 New England beats 4 Indianapolis
New England avenges two of its three regular season losses (the other being Week 17 in Houston) and Tom Brady reaches his fifth Super Bowl in his first nine seasons as a starter, which is better than Joe Montana did.
NFC Playoffs
3 Chicago beats 6 Minnesota
5 Green Bay beats 4 Seattle
1 NY Giants beats 5 Green Bay
3 Chicago beats 2 New Orleans
1 NY Giants beats 3 Chicago
The year of the NFC North fizzles right at the end, as the Giants find a way to overcome and reach their second Super Bowl in three seasons.
Super Bowl XLIV
New England 24 - New York Giants 16. The story of this game will be the ability to score touchdowns. Each team will score four times, but the Patriots will score three TD's and one field goal, while the Giants will be the opposite - one TD and three FG's. Tom Brady cements himself as one of the three best quarterbacks of all-time. This will also be the sixth consecutive season in which the NFL's number one team (in this case, San Diego) doesn't win the Super Bowl.
1 comment:
Hardly bold. As you acknowledged, there are always a number of big sleepers. But I'd have liked to see you predict at least one.
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