I was too tired when I got home last night, and am about to head out for the weekend. So here it is - the short, short version.
C.J. Wilson walked the most batters in the AL this year, and was only second in the Majors behind Jonathan Sanchez. The Yankees draw a lot of walks. I realize he just shut down the Rays, another team that draws a lot of walks, but the Yanks also hit lefties much better than the Rays did this season (.790 OPS compared to .733 for Tampa). Expect the Yanks to take Game One. Tommy Hunter was great at home this year, and had even splits against teams below and above .500, but he is still the inferior pitcher in his matchup against Phil Hughes. Expect perhaps not a pitchers duel, but a close game, and the Yanks to prevail.
In all, I see the Rangers winning only Cliff Lee's start, and for this series to end in New York. Yankees in five.
The Giants scored 11 runs in four games. Two were directly attributable to umpire error (Buster Posey's "steal" in game one and the ump completely whiffing on Omar Infante's foot being on the second base bag in game four) and two were directly attributable to Brooks Conrad's shoddy defense. Unfortunately for San Fran, the umpire calls won't go in their favor 100% of the time and Brooks Conrad was not traded to Philly in the last couple of days. Now, one could make the argument that late in games, Bruce Bochy willingly sacrificed some offense by subbing out Pat Burrell for Nate Schierholtz and Aubrey Huff for Travis Ishikawa. The Giants may find themselves needing that offense in this series, and may keep those two bats in the lineup all game, which could lead to more runs on the board for San Fran. But it will also greatly increase the chance that they make defensive miscues, making the net effect a wash. Phillies in five.
With the two series' likely to end early, expect a lot of media blather to revolve around the off-days between the LCS and the World Series. I'll be back with a more in-depth preview for the first Fall Classic rematch since the Yankees beat the Los Angeles Dodgers back-to-back in '77 and '78.
Friday, October 15, 2010
Tuesday, October 05, 2010
Three Aces, Two Fives & A Four
To gear up for the season, the Denver Nuggets have been once again running ads with the tag line "Can You Feel It?" And while Nuggets basketball is probably dead in the water once again, as the question of trading of Carmelo Anthony seems to have shifted from "if" to "when," I am definitely feeling the MLB playoffs. While last year's World Series participants made it back this season, the only other returning team from last October's scrum are the Minnesota Twins. And even if the Fall Classic should end in a rematch of last year, that would be alright, as it was a highly entertaining one.
I will do a full recap as to how my prognostications went overall, but it should be noted that I nailed five of the eight playoff participants this season, missing only Cincinnati, San Francisco and Tampa Bay (you could also demerit me for the fact that I had the Yankees as the AL East champ rather than the Wild Card team, but seeing as how that race went down to the last day of the season, that seems like it'd be splitting hairs). Back in April, I refrained from making postseason predictions, since it's such a crapshoot, and I will continue that trend here by simply going round by round for the playoffs.
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Looking at Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Standings, this is the second-closest series in terms of W3 and L3 (the closest, surprisingly, is Cincinnati-Philadelphia), but these two teams are really mirror images of each other. Both have a left-handed ace, both have good but not great rotations, both teams have an outstanding bullpen, both teams run well and flash good leather, both teams have a somewhat top-heavy lineup and both teams have a MVP candidate who was banged up down the stretch.
The key to this series very well may be James Shields. Since his seemingly breakthrough season of 2008, Shields has been a bit perplexing. On the plus side, his strikeout rate has improved dramatically, particularly this season, as his K/9 has jumped from 6.7 in '08, to 6.8 last year and then a big jump to 8.3 this season. At the same time, his walk rate and hit rate have both increased. Shields has never been a ground ball pitcher, and while his GB/FB ratio has decreased from .87 in '08 to .70 this year, and he led the AL in home runs allowed, was his performance entirely his fault? No doubt where there's smoke there's fire, but Shields' BABIP against this season was .344. Overall, the Rays BABIP was .282, a 62 point difference. Shields put less balls in play this season, but the ones that were put in play fell with greater regularity. Is that a fluke, or was Shields just that hittable? The answer to this question could be the key to the series. By FanGraphs' WAR, the Rangers have a clear edge in the pitching matchups - more than 2 wins difference in four of the five potential matchups. As good as David Price is, asking him to beat Cliff Lee twice is a tall task. Therefore, the rest of the Rays rotation will have to pick up the slack. Matt Garza is always solid, and you never know when he has a gem in him, as evidenced by this year's no-hitter or his dominating wins in the 2008 ALCS vs. the Red Sox (2 runs allowed in 13 innings pitched). Wade Davis has the luxury of pitching in the only equal matchup of the series vs. Tommy Hunter (0.8 fWAR for Davis, 0.7 for Hunter). That leaves Shields. He is at a disadvantage in both his matchup, and the Rays stand a good chance at being down 1-0 in the series when he walks to the hill Thursday afternoon.
Even in the Lee vs. Price matchup, I look for this series to be high scoring, and highly entertaining. I say matchup instead of matchups because despite the similarities between these two teams, I don't expect this series to go the full five games. Rangers in four.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Since the advent of Wild Card play in 1995, more of the first-round series' have ended in a sweep than anything else, and the only year that did not have a first round sweep was 2003. In two of the last three years, this has drawn even more attention, as in those seasons three of the four first-round matchups ended in sweeps, and there hasn't been a five-game series since the Yankees took the Angels to the limit. This season will be a lot more entertaining, but there will still be one sweep, and it will be in this series.
By Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Standings W3 and L3 numbers, this is the closest series, as the Phillies' W3-L3 is 89.6-72.6, while the Reds' marks are 88.8-73.2, less than a win's difference. While the Phillies won 97 games, BP shows that seven of those wins were lucky or undeserving. So on the surface, this would seem to be an intriguing matchup. After all, Cincy has arguably the game's best offense - the Reds rank first in the Majors in team MLVr and first in the NL in team wOBA, and MVP candidate Joey Votto actually performed better on the road than at home this season. But looking a little closer at Philly's starting pitching, and the disparity grows much wider:
Philly Starters..........GS...IP......ERA
Halladay-Oswalt-Hamels...78...541.....2.74
Everyone Else............84...494.3...4.62
The "Everyone Else" includes 31 starts from Kyle Kendrick, 28 from Joe Blanton, 19 from Jamie Moyer, 3 from JA Happ, 2 from Vance Worley and 1 from Nelson Figueroa, none of whom are likely to take the mound in the Division Series. But what about Philly's pen? Well, despite its reputation, it actually ranked 12th among WXRL, four spots ahead of Cincy. And while there's an argument that a full season of Aroldis Chapman would even the bullpens out a bit, it wouldn't do anything more than bring the respective bullpens to a draw. And while the Reds offense is fearsome, the Phillies aren't exactly slouches, and they will get to play the first two in Citizens Bank Park, where they won 54 of 84 games this season (only the Atlanta Braves had more home wins than Philly in 2010). Phillies in three.
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
The Twins are the Energizer Rabbit of Major League Baseball. They lose their closer before Opening Day, and it doesn't slow them down, their WXRL of 9.162 was sixth best in the Majors this season. They lose Justin Morneau, one of their three superstars who was leading them in OBP (among other things) in early July, and then string together their best month of OBP of the season that month (.367 as a team). The team did start to wear down offensively in September, but Joe Mauer and Jim Thome both missed time. Assuming Mauer and Thome are back in form for the postseason, the offense, may be able to convert hits into runs. Last postseason, against these same Yankees, the Twinkies piled up 29 hits in three games, but they only translated into six runs. This season, the team OBP has actually been slightly worse overall, but that is due mostly to the fact that Joe Mauer "cooled" off from his historic .444 mark of 2009 to a less world-beating .402 this season. Looking at the whole team though, it can be shown that the gaps have narrowed. Last postseason, the Twins' six and seven-hole hitters (Delmon Young in the six, Brendan Harris and Carlos Gomez in the seven) who had OBP's of .310 or less. Those two spots in the order accounted for 15 runners left on base in the three games, and none were more notable than the failed top of the 11th rally in game two, when Young came up with the bases loaded and no outs, and lined out to first on the first pitch he saw. On the next pitch, Gomez grounded out 3-2, and Harris (who had subbed in to the eight hole that night) popped a fly ball to center, killing the rally. Four pitches later, Mark Teixeira would slam a walk-off homer, and the Twins wouldn't recover. This season, Young's play has improved, and the Twins don't have a qualifying hitter with an OBP under .320. This better balance should lead to base runners converting into runs scored more frequently.
The other wrinkle in this series is how the Yankees plan to use their starters. The plan of bringing CC Sabathia back on three days rest for game four seems shortsighted at best. Nick Blackburn, the Twins' scheduled game four starter, was likely to be on the short end of the matchup whether it was AJ Burnett or Sabathia pitching, but moving Sabathia to game four means that Pettitte would have to pitch game five, where he will be a severe underdog against Francisco Liriano. Pettitte is normally cool under pressure in the playoffs, but to say he limped to the finish line this season is a bit of an understatement. He has only three appearances since July 18, and in them he had a 6.75 ERA in 13.1 innings pitched. Pettitte was enjoying a good season before his injury, but Liriano has been otherworldly this year.
I look for the whole team to win every game of this series, with Joe Girardi's Sabathia decision, and not an umpire's blown call, being the issue talked about throughout the hot stove season. Twins in five.
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants
As much as the Texas-Tampa series could hinge on James Shields' performance, the Atlanta-San Francisco series most definitely is riding on Derek Lowe's shoulders. This is likely music to Giants' fans ears, but they shouldn't be so quick to count their chickens. Over his career, Derek Lowe has made a habit of coming up big when it matters. He earned the win in all three series clinchers for the 2004 Boston Red Sox, pitching perhaps the greatest game in Red Sox history - game seven against the Yankees - allowing just one hit and one run across six innings. This would be remarkable in and of itself; that he did it on two days rest is phenomenal. In all, Lowe has appeared in the postseason 21 times - 17 times for the Sox and four times for the Dodgers. In these games, he has an ERA of 3.33 and a WHIP of 1.17. In short, Lowe is no slouch. Is he Tim Lincecum? Of course not. But the gap isn't as large as one might think. Lincecum's xFIP of 3.21 is better than Lowe's 3.65, but Lowe's mark isn't shabby. It was good for 15th this year among qualifying pitchers, ahead of Cy Young candidates like Ubaldo Jimenez, CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander. In fact, Lowe's mark tops the Braves' list, and is the second best mark among starters in the series. Here's how games two and three stack up:
Game 2: Tommy Hanson (4.04 xFIP) vs. Matt Cain (4.19)
Game 3: Tim Hudson (3.87) vs. Jonathan Sanchez (4.11)
Much is made of the Giants' vaunted rotation, but while they get the publicity, the Braves' trio is just as good, if not better, as a whole.
For the season, the Braves' had a better OBP than did the Giants, but that should even out due to the loss of both Chipper Jones and Martin Prado for Atlanta. However, that doesn't suddenly mean the Braves have no hitting. Jason Heyward, Brian McCann and Derrek Lee still form a very good middle of the order, and Nate McLouth came back in September looking very much like he did in 2009, hitting .273 with an .887 OPS for September/October. Add a dash of Omar Infante here, some clutch pinch-hitting from Eric Hinske there (he hit .298, with a .985 OPS in 54 plate appearances as a pinch-hitter this season) and you have the makings of an offense that Bobby Cox can wring out enough runs from to win.
In the other dugout, the Giants have a lot more decisions to make. Do they carry Aaron Rowand? What about Travis Ishikawa and Nate Schierholtz? The Giants need their defense, but the Braves have two lefty-killers for late in the game in Billy Wagner (.071 AVG allowed this season vs. lefties) and Jonny Venters (.198). Bruce Bochy has, by and large, done a good job this season. But the more decisions he has to make, the higher the probability of him screwing up a decision. This series features the biggest managerial mismatch of the first round, and at some point a Bochy decision is likely to cost the Giants a game.
These teams both feature good bullpens, good home field advantages, mediocre offenses and poor running games. The Giants flash the leather better than do the Braves, but with guys like Ishikawa and Schierholtz likely relegated to the bench in the vain search for more offense, the Giants are likely to give up that edge. No matter the outcome, this series is going to be a lot closer than the people penciling in a Giants sweep are ready to see. Braves in five.
So there you go - one series dominated by three aces, two series' that will go the distance, and a very entertaining four-game set for good measure. This scenario played out one other time, in 2002. That postseason ended with the first-ever World Series matchup of two Wild Card teams, with the Angels finally getting their championship after more than 40 years. We can only hope that this year's Fall Classic provides as much excitement.
I will do a full recap as to how my prognostications went overall, but it should be noted that I nailed five of the eight playoff participants this season, missing only Cincinnati, San Francisco and Tampa Bay (you could also demerit me for the fact that I had the Yankees as the AL East champ rather than the Wild Card team, but seeing as how that race went down to the last day of the season, that seems like it'd be splitting hairs). Back in April, I refrained from making postseason predictions, since it's such a crapshoot, and I will continue that trend here by simply going round by round for the playoffs.
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Looking at Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Standings, this is the second-closest series in terms of W3 and L3 (the closest, surprisingly, is Cincinnati-Philadelphia), but these two teams are really mirror images of each other. Both have a left-handed ace, both have good but not great rotations, both teams have an outstanding bullpen, both teams run well and flash good leather, both teams have a somewhat top-heavy lineup and both teams have a MVP candidate who was banged up down the stretch.
The key to this series very well may be James Shields. Since his seemingly breakthrough season of 2008, Shields has been a bit perplexing. On the plus side, his strikeout rate has improved dramatically, particularly this season, as his K/9 has jumped from 6.7 in '08, to 6.8 last year and then a big jump to 8.3 this season. At the same time, his walk rate and hit rate have both increased. Shields has never been a ground ball pitcher, and while his GB/FB ratio has decreased from .87 in '08 to .70 this year, and he led the AL in home runs allowed, was his performance entirely his fault? No doubt where there's smoke there's fire, but Shields' BABIP against this season was .344. Overall, the Rays BABIP was .282, a 62 point difference. Shields put less balls in play this season, but the ones that were put in play fell with greater regularity. Is that a fluke, or was Shields just that hittable? The answer to this question could be the key to the series. By FanGraphs' WAR, the Rangers have a clear edge in the pitching matchups - more than 2 wins difference in four of the five potential matchups. As good as David Price is, asking him to beat Cliff Lee twice is a tall task. Therefore, the rest of the Rays rotation will have to pick up the slack. Matt Garza is always solid, and you never know when he has a gem in him, as evidenced by this year's no-hitter or his dominating wins in the 2008 ALCS vs. the Red Sox (2 runs allowed in 13 innings pitched). Wade Davis has the luxury of pitching in the only equal matchup of the series vs. Tommy Hunter (0.8 fWAR for Davis, 0.7 for Hunter). That leaves Shields. He is at a disadvantage in both his matchup, and the Rays stand a good chance at being down 1-0 in the series when he walks to the hill Thursday afternoon.
Even in the Lee vs. Price matchup, I look for this series to be high scoring, and highly entertaining. I say matchup instead of matchups because despite the similarities between these two teams, I don't expect this series to go the full five games. Rangers in four.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Since the advent of Wild Card play in 1995, more of the first-round series' have ended in a sweep than anything else, and the only year that did not have a first round sweep was 2003. In two of the last three years, this has drawn even more attention, as in those seasons three of the four first-round matchups ended in sweeps, and there hasn't been a five-game series since the Yankees took the Angels to the limit. This season will be a lot more entertaining, but there will still be one sweep, and it will be in this series.
By Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Standings W3 and L3 numbers, this is the closest series, as the Phillies' W3-L3 is 89.6-72.6, while the Reds' marks are 88.8-73.2, less than a win's difference. While the Phillies won 97 games, BP shows that seven of those wins were lucky or undeserving. So on the surface, this would seem to be an intriguing matchup. After all, Cincy has arguably the game's best offense - the Reds rank first in the Majors in team MLVr and first in the NL in team wOBA, and MVP candidate Joey Votto actually performed better on the road than at home this season. But looking a little closer at Philly's starting pitching, and the disparity grows much wider:
Philly Starters..........GS...IP......ERA
Halladay-Oswalt-Hamels...78...541.....2.74
Everyone Else............84...494.3...4.62
The "Everyone Else" includes 31 starts from Kyle Kendrick, 28 from Joe Blanton, 19 from Jamie Moyer, 3 from JA Happ, 2 from Vance Worley and 1 from Nelson Figueroa, none of whom are likely to take the mound in the Division Series. But what about Philly's pen? Well, despite its reputation, it actually ranked 12th among WXRL, four spots ahead of Cincy. And while there's an argument that a full season of Aroldis Chapman would even the bullpens out a bit, it wouldn't do anything more than bring the respective bullpens to a draw. And while the Reds offense is fearsome, the Phillies aren't exactly slouches, and they will get to play the first two in Citizens Bank Park, where they won 54 of 84 games this season (only the Atlanta Braves had more home wins than Philly in 2010). Phillies in three.
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
The Twins are the Energizer Rabbit of Major League Baseball. They lose their closer before Opening Day, and it doesn't slow them down, their WXRL of 9.162 was sixth best in the Majors this season. They lose Justin Morneau, one of their three superstars who was leading them in OBP (among other things) in early July, and then string together their best month of OBP of the season that month (.367 as a team). The team did start to wear down offensively in September, but Joe Mauer and Jim Thome both missed time. Assuming Mauer and Thome are back in form for the postseason, the offense, may be able to convert hits into runs. Last postseason, against these same Yankees, the Twinkies piled up 29 hits in three games, but they only translated into six runs. This season, the team OBP has actually been slightly worse overall, but that is due mostly to the fact that Joe Mauer "cooled" off from his historic .444 mark of 2009 to a less world-beating .402 this season. Looking at the whole team though, it can be shown that the gaps have narrowed. Last postseason, the Twins' six and seven-hole hitters (Delmon Young in the six, Brendan Harris and Carlos Gomez in the seven) who had OBP's of .310 or less. Those two spots in the order accounted for 15 runners left on base in the three games, and none were more notable than the failed top of the 11th rally in game two, when Young came up with the bases loaded and no outs, and lined out to first on the first pitch he saw. On the next pitch, Gomez grounded out 3-2, and Harris (who had subbed in to the eight hole that night) popped a fly ball to center, killing the rally. Four pitches later, Mark Teixeira would slam a walk-off homer, and the Twins wouldn't recover. This season, Young's play has improved, and the Twins don't have a qualifying hitter with an OBP under .320. This better balance should lead to base runners converting into runs scored more frequently.
The other wrinkle in this series is how the Yankees plan to use their starters. The plan of bringing CC Sabathia back on three days rest for game four seems shortsighted at best. Nick Blackburn, the Twins' scheduled game four starter, was likely to be on the short end of the matchup whether it was AJ Burnett or Sabathia pitching, but moving Sabathia to game four means that Pettitte would have to pitch game five, where he will be a severe underdog against Francisco Liriano. Pettitte is normally cool under pressure in the playoffs, but to say he limped to the finish line this season is a bit of an understatement. He has only three appearances since July 18, and in them he had a 6.75 ERA in 13.1 innings pitched. Pettitte was enjoying a good season before his injury, but Liriano has been otherworldly this year.
I look for the whole team to win every game of this series, with Joe Girardi's Sabathia decision, and not an umpire's blown call, being the issue talked about throughout the hot stove season. Twins in five.
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants
As much as the Texas-Tampa series could hinge on James Shields' performance, the Atlanta-San Francisco series most definitely is riding on Derek Lowe's shoulders. This is likely music to Giants' fans ears, but they shouldn't be so quick to count their chickens. Over his career, Derek Lowe has made a habit of coming up big when it matters. He earned the win in all three series clinchers for the 2004 Boston Red Sox, pitching perhaps the greatest game in Red Sox history - game seven against the Yankees - allowing just one hit and one run across six innings. This would be remarkable in and of itself; that he did it on two days rest is phenomenal. In all, Lowe has appeared in the postseason 21 times - 17 times for the Sox and four times for the Dodgers. In these games, he has an ERA of 3.33 and a WHIP of 1.17. In short, Lowe is no slouch. Is he Tim Lincecum? Of course not. But the gap isn't as large as one might think. Lincecum's xFIP of 3.21 is better than Lowe's 3.65, but Lowe's mark isn't shabby. It was good for 15th this year among qualifying pitchers, ahead of Cy Young candidates like Ubaldo Jimenez, CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander. In fact, Lowe's mark tops the Braves' list, and is the second best mark among starters in the series. Here's how games two and three stack up:
Game 2: Tommy Hanson (4.04 xFIP) vs. Matt Cain (4.19)
Game 3: Tim Hudson (3.87) vs. Jonathan Sanchez (4.11)
Much is made of the Giants' vaunted rotation, but while they get the publicity, the Braves' trio is just as good, if not better, as a whole.
For the season, the Braves' had a better OBP than did the Giants, but that should even out due to the loss of both Chipper Jones and Martin Prado for Atlanta. However, that doesn't suddenly mean the Braves have no hitting. Jason Heyward, Brian McCann and Derrek Lee still form a very good middle of the order, and Nate McLouth came back in September looking very much like he did in 2009, hitting .273 with an .887 OPS for September/October. Add a dash of Omar Infante here, some clutch pinch-hitting from Eric Hinske there (he hit .298, with a .985 OPS in 54 plate appearances as a pinch-hitter this season) and you have the makings of an offense that Bobby Cox can wring out enough runs from to win.
In the other dugout, the Giants have a lot more decisions to make. Do they carry Aaron Rowand? What about Travis Ishikawa and Nate Schierholtz? The Giants need their defense, but the Braves have two lefty-killers for late in the game in Billy Wagner (.071 AVG allowed this season vs. lefties) and Jonny Venters (.198). Bruce Bochy has, by and large, done a good job this season. But the more decisions he has to make, the higher the probability of him screwing up a decision. This series features the biggest managerial mismatch of the first round, and at some point a Bochy decision is likely to cost the Giants a game.
These teams both feature good bullpens, good home field advantages, mediocre offenses and poor running games. The Giants flash the leather better than do the Braves, but with guys like Ishikawa and Schierholtz likely relegated to the bench in the vain search for more offense, the Giants are likely to give up that edge. No matter the outcome, this series is going to be a lot closer than the people penciling in a Giants sweep are ready to see. Braves in five.
So there you go - one series dominated by three aces, two series' that will go the distance, and a very entertaining four-game set for good measure. This scenario played out one other time, in 2002. That postseason ended with the first-ever World Series matchup of two Wild Card teams, with the Angels finally getting their championship after more than 40 years. We can only hope that this year's Fall Classic provides as much excitement.
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