Today I made my first radio predictions on Baseball Prospectus Radio. While BP Radio is found mostly on the Internet, it is broadcast on a few sports radio stations across the country. The piece was pre-recorded, with an easy format. The piece asked for one "solid" prediction, one "interesting" prediction, and one "out-there" prediction. I realize I may be spoiling the broadcast by letting the six people in on what my predictions were.
"Solid" prediction: Boston Red Sox win the AL East and repeat as World Series champs
"Interesting" prediction: Todd Helton wins his first National League MVP
"Out-There" prediction: Milwaukee Brewers win the NL Central
So there you have it. Sometime this weekend I'm going to get around to my 1st annual (and very possibly last annual) MLB preview post. Until then...keep looking to the skis, I mean skies...
Wednesday, March 30, 2005
Saturday, March 26, 2005
Draft by Cell Phone
This afternoon I participated in my keeper league made up of guys from my home town Shrewsbury, and people they know from UCONN and Wesleyan. This is the fourth year (I think) that I have been involved in the league. Last year was the first year that we did keepers. The league works with a $200 budget for 21 players, so you have to be careful in your bidding. My keepers heading into the draft were:
2 year keepers:
SP Josh Beckett $22
1B, 3B, OF Aubrey Huff $11 - The plan was to use him primarily at 3rd
C Joe Mauer $9
1 year keepers:
RP Octavio Dotel $15
SP Edwin Jackson $11
C AJ Pierzynski $2
I was fairly happy with this group. Dotel came over in a trade last year, and his price is high but acceptable. Edwin Jackson however, was a disaster. As he is a one year keeper I can drop him once the draft concludes, but it was one less player I was able to draft today.
So heading into today's draft I had $130 to spend on 15 players. This was about average, there were four other teams with more money to spend on average than myself. I decided to wait things out a little bit. Randy Johnson was the first pick, going for $29. The early rounds featured the usual heavy hitters: Todd Helton @ $26, Vlad Guerrero @ $38, Albert Pujols @ $42 were a few of the first to go. After probably 15 or so picks, I made my first purchase:
OF Juan Pierre for $12. I was very happy with this. It was still early, Crawford was still on the board, but Podsednik is a keeper, so I thought I might get more competition. Pierre has had calf problems in spring training, but I am banking on him being ok.
Next I grabbed SP Ben Sheets @ $25. I was ecstatic with this purchase. I had Sheets valued at $40, so to me this was a bargain. Sometime after that pick, we took a short break. Then I really started to heat up.
Following the break, I nabbed:
SP Brad Radke @ $8
SS Jimmy Rollins @ $7
1B Justin Morneau @ $8
SP Zack Greinke @ $4
OF Dave Roberts @ $4
RP BJ Ryan @ $11
OF JD Drew @ $8
2B D'Angelo Jimenez @ $2
RP Chad Cordero @ $7
2B Ray Durham @ $2
OF Lew Ford @ $2
P Bronson Arroyo @ $4
OF Jeremy Reed @ $2
Cap Room: $24.
I knew that after I nabbed Jimmy Rollins for 1/2 of what I had him valued at, I knew it was going to be a great draft. I didn't get anyone I didn't want, and lost out on few that I did. I think doing it on the cell phone actually helped slightly, simply because I was able to concentrate easier. So here's the depth chart for 2005:
C: Joe Mauer ($9), AJ Pierzynski ($2)
1B: Justin Morneau ($8), Aubrey Huff ($11)
2B: D'Angelo Jimenez ($2), Ray Durham ($2)
3B: Aubrey Huff ($11)
SS: Jimmy Rollins ($7)
OF: Juan Pierre ($12), Dave Roberts ($4), JD Drew ($5), Lew Ford ($2), Jeremy Reed ($2), Aubrey Huff ($11)
SP: Josh Beckett ($22), Edwin Jackson ($11), Ben Sheets ($25), Brad Radke ($8), Zack Greinke ($4), Bronson Arroyo ($4)
RP: Octavio Dotel ($15), BJ Ryan ($11), Chad Cordero ($7)
Needless to say I am extremely happy with this team. I think I may be short on power in general, particularly at 2B, SS, and the OF. Other than that I believe I am doing quite well. I am very happy with my rotation, and I got 3 solid closers. Dotel may not be in Oakland all season, but it's a good bet that if he is traded he will retain his closer role. Having $24 in cap room will allow me some flexibility in acquiring additional power. I believe my power output will depend on JD Drew's health and Lew Ford's progress and playing time.
2 year keepers:
SP Josh Beckett $22
1B, 3B, OF Aubrey Huff $11 - The plan was to use him primarily at 3rd
C Joe Mauer $9
1 year keepers:
RP Octavio Dotel $15
SP Edwin Jackson $11
C AJ Pierzynski $2
I was fairly happy with this group. Dotel came over in a trade last year, and his price is high but acceptable. Edwin Jackson however, was a disaster. As he is a one year keeper I can drop him once the draft concludes, but it was one less player I was able to draft today.
So heading into today's draft I had $130 to spend on 15 players. This was about average, there were four other teams with more money to spend on average than myself. I decided to wait things out a little bit. Randy Johnson was the first pick, going for $29. The early rounds featured the usual heavy hitters: Todd Helton @ $26, Vlad Guerrero @ $38, Albert Pujols @ $42 were a few of the first to go. After probably 15 or so picks, I made my first purchase:
OF Juan Pierre for $12. I was very happy with this. It was still early, Crawford was still on the board, but Podsednik is a keeper, so I thought I might get more competition. Pierre has had calf problems in spring training, but I am banking on him being ok.
Next I grabbed SP Ben Sheets @ $25. I was ecstatic with this purchase. I had Sheets valued at $40, so to me this was a bargain. Sometime after that pick, we took a short break. Then I really started to heat up.
Following the break, I nabbed:
SP Brad Radke @ $8
SS Jimmy Rollins @ $7
1B Justin Morneau @ $8
SP Zack Greinke @ $4
OF Dave Roberts @ $4
RP BJ Ryan @ $11
OF JD Drew @ $8
2B D'Angelo Jimenez @ $2
RP Chad Cordero @ $7
2B Ray Durham @ $2
OF Lew Ford @ $2
P Bronson Arroyo @ $4
OF Jeremy Reed @ $2
Cap Room: $24.
I knew that after I nabbed Jimmy Rollins for 1/2 of what I had him valued at, I knew it was going to be a great draft. I didn't get anyone I didn't want, and lost out on few that I did. I think doing it on the cell phone actually helped slightly, simply because I was able to concentrate easier. So here's the depth chart for 2005:
C: Joe Mauer ($9), AJ Pierzynski ($2)
1B: Justin Morneau ($8), Aubrey Huff ($11)
2B: D'Angelo Jimenez ($2), Ray Durham ($2)
3B: Aubrey Huff ($11)
SS: Jimmy Rollins ($7)
OF: Juan Pierre ($12), Dave Roberts ($4), JD Drew ($5), Lew Ford ($2), Jeremy Reed ($2), Aubrey Huff ($11)
SP: Josh Beckett ($22), Edwin Jackson ($11), Ben Sheets ($25), Brad Radke ($8), Zack Greinke ($4), Bronson Arroyo ($4)
RP: Octavio Dotel ($15), BJ Ryan ($11), Chad Cordero ($7)
Needless to say I am extremely happy with this team. I think I may be short on power in general, particularly at 2B, SS, and the OF. Other than that I believe I am doing quite well. I am very happy with my rotation, and I got 3 solid closers. Dotel may not be in Oakland all season, but it's a good bet that if he is traded he will retain his closer role. Having $24 in cap room will allow me some flexibility in acquiring additional power. I believe my power output will depend on JD Drew's health and Lew Ford's progress and playing time.
Friday, March 25, 2005
Falling On Their Sticks
BU had a great season, there is no doubt about that. Unfortunately, their last two games, losing 5-2 to UNH in the Hockey East Semi's and getting blanked in the first round of the Frozen Four tonight, 4-0 at the hands of North Dakota, were quite ugly. That is a tough way to finish what was a productive season.
With the NHL canceling their player entry draft, it is a safe bet that BU will return its immensable productive freshman class next year, so it makes it even more important for those young guns to take away more from this experience than they lose.
With the NHL canceling their player entry draft, it is a safe bet that BU will return its immensable productive freshman class next year, so it makes it even more important for those young guns to take away more from this experience than they lose.
Friday, March 18, 2005
Basketball City
I'd love to say I've been paying attention to the Red Sox spring training. But that would be a blatant lie. Between paying attention to Rockies spring training as I look for reasons to tell season-ticket holders not to cancel their seats, combined with the Celtics revival, and March Madness, I haven't paid much attention to the Sox. Nor will I until Opening Day. In Theo and Ben I trust, and it's their way or bust.
So how 'bout those Catamounts! I feel like a dick for not picking them. I said I would pick them after BU got knocked out of the America East tourney, I said it when they beat NU to win the America East tourney, and then I saw their matchup: Syracuse. I have a hard time picking Syracuse to lose, and I caved to the conventional power pick. I also thought, with much less conviction, about picking Bucknell. I decided more firmly that Kansas had too many seniors who had been there and done that. Surely they would take care of business. Whoops!
Still, after two days my bracket has not been busted. I still have 13 of my Sweet 16 intact, 7 of my Elite 8 intact, and all of my Final Four and Championship game. While that is more than a lot of people can say, I piss myself off with the uncanny ability to miss scoring on some big upsets, instead going for emotional upsets like Penn over BC. Still, if West Virgina knocks off Wake Forest tomorrow I will be in great position. I think it will happen because a) WV shoots the 3 very well, and b) they have a virtual home court advantage. Winston-Salem is 467.71 miles from Cleveland, while Morgantown, WV is a mere 201.60 miles away. That's about a five hour trip, not very much for a college student. West Virgina fans should be all over Cleveland tomorrow, giving their Mountaineers an added boost.
Big win for the Celtics tonight in Houston. For the C's it's 6 in a row and 10 in their last 11. Here's the C's breakdowns by month:
NOV: 5-8
DEC: 8-8
JAN: 8- 8
FEB: 8-4
MAR: 8-1
After holding serve throughout a grueling stretch of two 16 game months, the C's are 16-5 since February. They have 5 more games in March for a total of 14 in March, followed by 11 games in 20 days in April. 16 games left. Tonight's win gave them one more win than they had all of last season. The C's are now officially the 3rd best team in the East, and if they play .500 ball over the last 16 games, will finish at 45-37, which would be a nine game improvement. However, at the rate the C's are going, I don't think 50 wins is insurmountable. Let's run down the last 16 games of the season:
@ NO: Win
@ NY: Win
CHI: Win
@ DET: Loss
DAL: Loss
@ ATL: Win
PHI: Win
@ WAS: Loss
MIL: Win
@ NJ: Win
@ PHI: Loss
@ MIL: Win
MIA: Win
@ TOR: Win
@ CLE: Win
NJ: Win
So that's 12-4 over the last 16 games. 49 wins. Wow. Get ready for banner #17!
So how 'bout those Catamounts! I feel like a dick for not picking them. I said I would pick them after BU got knocked out of the America East tourney, I said it when they beat NU to win the America East tourney, and then I saw their matchup: Syracuse. I have a hard time picking Syracuse to lose, and I caved to the conventional power pick. I also thought, with much less conviction, about picking Bucknell. I decided more firmly that Kansas had too many seniors who had been there and done that. Surely they would take care of business. Whoops!
Still, after two days my bracket has not been busted. I still have 13 of my Sweet 16 intact, 7 of my Elite 8 intact, and all of my Final Four and Championship game. While that is more than a lot of people can say, I piss myself off with the uncanny ability to miss scoring on some big upsets, instead going for emotional upsets like Penn over BC. Still, if West Virgina knocks off Wake Forest tomorrow I will be in great position. I think it will happen because a) WV shoots the 3 very well, and b) they have a virtual home court advantage. Winston-Salem is 467.71 miles from Cleveland, while Morgantown, WV is a mere 201.60 miles away. That's about a five hour trip, not very much for a college student. West Virgina fans should be all over Cleveland tomorrow, giving their Mountaineers an added boost.
Big win for the Celtics tonight in Houston. For the C's it's 6 in a row and 10 in their last 11. Here's the C's breakdowns by month:
NOV: 5-8
DEC: 8-8
JAN: 8- 8
FEB: 8-4
MAR: 8-1
After holding serve throughout a grueling stretch of two 16 game months, the C's are 16-5 since February. They have 5 more games in March for a total of 14 in March, followed by 11 games in 20 days in April. 16 games left. Tonight's win gave them one more win than they had all of last season. The C's are now officially the 3rd best team in the East, and if they play .500 ball over the last 16 games, will finish at 45-37, which would be a nine game improvement. However, at the rate the C's are going, I don't think 50 wins is insurmountable. Let's run down the last 16 games of the season:
@ NO: Win
@ NY: Win
CHI: Win
@ DET: Loss
DAL: Loss
@ ATL: Win
PHI: Win
@ WAS: Loss
MIL: Win
@ NJ: Win
@ PHI: Loss
@ MIL: Win
MIA: Win
@ TOR: Win
@ CLE: Win
NJ: Win
So that's 12-4 over the last 16 games. 49 wins. Wow. Get ready for banner #17!
Tuesday, March 15, 2005
Dirty Dancing
Oh yes. It's that time of the year again.
Just to lay it down to give you a little context, here are where my NCAA B-Ball allegiances lie:
Love: Boston University, Holy Cross, UMASS, Syracuse, Michigan
Like: North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Manhattan
Eh: University of Denver
Hate: Duke, Kentucky, Michigan State
LOATHE: Boston College, Louisville
So now you know. If you need reasons as to why I like each, let me know, I'm not taking the time right now.
Here's my Sweet 16:
Chicago:
#1 Illinois vs. #13 Penn
#4 Arizona vs. #2 Oklahoma State
Albuquerque:
#1 Washington vs. #5 Georgia Tech
#3 Gonzaga vs. #7 West Virginia
Austin:
#1 Duke vs. #4 Syracuse
#2 Kentucky vs. #3 Oklahoma
Syracuse:
#1 North Carolina vs. #4 Florida
#2 Connecticutt vs. #3 Kansas
On to the Elite 8:
Chicago: #1 Illinois vs. #3 Arizona
Albuq: #5 Georgia Tech vs. #7 West Virginia
Austin: #1 Duke vs. #3 Oklahoma
Syracuse: #1 North Carolina vs. #3 Kansas
Final 4:
Illinois vs. Georgia Tech
North Carolina vs. Duke
CHAMPIONSHIP:
North Carolina 86 - Illinois 79
Roy finally wins it. Dean smiles. Sean is the MOP and a top 5 pick in June.
Other notable upsets:
#13 Penn over #4 BC - BC Sucks. Period.
#12 New Mexico over #5 Villanova
#10 St. Mary's over #7 So. Illinois
I really don't see a whole lot of upsets happening this year. In a way, it will be an upset that there aren't a lot of upsets, in a sense. But my one big call is obviously the West Virginia into the Elite 8, knocking off Wake and Gonzaga. If Bill Simmons has taught me anything, it's that if one team is an unseemly favorite, go the other way in your bets. There's a reason Wake dropped to a #2 seed, and it's because they finally were exposed.
Just to lay it down to give you a little context, here are where my NCAA B-Ball allegiances lie:
Love: Boston University, Holy Cross, UMASS, Syracuse, Michigan
Like: North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Manhattan
Eh: University of Denver
Hate: Duke, Kentucky, Michigan State
LOATHE: Boston College, Louisville
So now you know. If you need reasons as to why I like each, let me know, I'm not taking the time right now.
Here's my Sweet 16:
Chicago:
#1 Illinois vs. #13 Penn
#4 Arizona vs. #2 Oklahoma State
Albuquerque:
#1 Washington vs. #5 Georgia Tech
#3 Gonzaga vs. #7 West Virginia
Austin:
#1 Duke vs. #4 Syracuse
#2 Kentucky vs. #3 Oklahoma
Syracuse:
#1 North Carolina vs. #4 Florida
#2 Connecticutt vs. #3 Kansas
On to the Elite 8:
Chicago: #1 Illinois vs. #3 Arizona
Albuq: #5 Georgia Tech vs. #7 West Virginia
Austin: #1 Duke vs. #3 Oklahoma
Syracuse: #1 North Carolina vs. #3 Kansas
Final 4:
Illinois vs. Georgia Tech
North Carolina vs. Duke
CHAMPIONSHIP:
North Carolina 86 - Illinois 79
Roy finally wins it. Dean smiles. Sean is the MOP and a top 5 pick in June.
Other notable upsets:
#13 Penn over #4 BC - BC Sucks. Period.
#12 New Mexico over #5 Villanova
#10 St. Mary's over #7 So. Illinois
#10 Iowa over #7 Cincinnati
#10 NC State over #7 Charlotte
#9 Iowa State over #8 Minnesota
#7 West Virginia over #2 Wake ForestI really don't see a whole lot of upsets happening this year. In a way, it will be an upset that there aren't a lot of upsets, in a sense. But my one big call is obviously the West Virginia into the Elite 8, knocking off Wake and Gonzaga. If Bill Simmons has taught me anything, it's that if one team is an unseemly favorite, go the other way in your bets. There's a reason Wake dropped to a #2 seed, and it's because they finally were exposed.
Saturday, March 12, 2005
It hurts being this smart
Actually it hurts to knock down 4 margs at the Rio Grande in 4 hours, which I am paying for with lack of sleep right now. However, I don't care. The C's beat the Pistons in Double OT tonight. This is what I had to say about the Pistons in one of my last posts:
Overall, they are a team built on a solid foundation of starters, but Larry Brown is a great coach, and gets what he needs from his subs, which is why they win. However, on paper this is not a very talented bench. Edge: C's
Tonight, in a game that lasted 58 minutes, the Pistons played only 9 people, with 3 people picking up DNP's. One of the 9 people, Darvin Ham, only played 2 minutes. Going with an 8 man rotation through 2 overtimes is the kind of decision that could wear out Detroit before the playoffs even start.
The REAL story here though, is how Paul Pierce finally stepped up to the plate and did again what he so often did in that magical run to the conference title that got that traitor O'Brien a second job in the NBA. Antoine's magic ran out for one night, and he had a horrible night, shooting 4-19, 0-5 from 3 pts, and committed 4 turnovers. Though he netted 8 rebounds and 4 assists, this is the kind of game that used to get us killed, especially against a good team like Retroit. Not tonight. Halluleuh! No matter what anyone says about Antoine, he brings out the best in Paul Pierce. Although I did not watch this game as I was busy getting hammered, I know that Antoine's influence is what spurred Pierce on, and afterwards, Pierce was finally talking like a man again, instead of the mopy "woe-is-me" quotes we've been hearing the past two seasons.
Bill Simmon's predicted the other day that the C's would get to 40 wins before they get to 30 losses. Looking at the schedule, only a big road game in Houston stands in the face of that goal. But it doesn't matter. Last year the C's won 36 games total and didn't deserve our 8 seed in the playoffs. This year we've already won 33 and we're well on our way to a 3 seed courtesy of our 3 game lead on Philly, but we are currently 6th overall in the conference. In addition, we are just a 1/2 game behind Cleveland and Chicago for the 4 spot, and 1.5 games behind Washington for the 3 spot. With Washington and Cleveland struggling, and given the fact that we've already handed Chicago their lunch twice this season, it is no longer a stretch to say that the East will come down to Miami, Detroit, and Boston. The Celtics have a major advantage over each team. We have better depth than Detroit, and we have more than one way to make our offense run, something that Miami doesn't have. Miami has little depth, and the two good players they do have, always have the ball in their hands. That's a recipe for disaster, just ask the C's of 2001-2002.
In the end, I know that no matter how it turns out, this has already been a great season. After the game ended tonight I immediately got three phone calls. The Celtics of 2004-2005 are special, and people care about the C's again. I couldn't be happier.
Overall, they are a team built on a solid foundation of starters, but Larry Brown is a great coach, and gets what he needs from his subs, which is why they win. However, on paper this is not a very talented bench. Edge: C's
Tonight, in a game that lasted 58 minutes, the Pistons played only 9 people, with 3 people picking up DNP's. One of the 9 people, Darvin Ham, only played 2 minutes. Going with an 8 man rotation through 2 overtimes is the kind of decision that could wear out Detroit before the playoffs even start.
The REAL story here though, is how Paul Pierce finally stepped up to the plate and did again what he so often did in that magical run to the conference title that got that traitor O'Brien a second job in the NBA. Antoine's magic ran out for one night, and he had a horrible night, shooting 4-19, 0-5 from 3 pts, and committed 4 turnovers. Though he netted 8 rebounds and 4 assists, this is the kind of game that used to get us killed, especially against a good team like Retroit. Not tonight. Halluleuh! No matter what anyone says about Antoine, he brings out the best in Paul Pierce. Although I did not watch this game as I was busy getting hammered, I know that Antoine's influence is what spurred Pierce on, and afterwards, Pierce was finally talking like a man again, instead of the mopy "woe-is-me" quotes we've been hearing the past two seasons.
Bill Simmon's predicted the other day that the C's would get to 40 wins before they get to 30 losses. Looking at the schedule, only a big road game in Houston stands in the face of that goal. But it doesn't matter. Last year the C's won 36 games total and didn't deserve our 8 seed in the playoffs. This year we've already won 33 and we're well on our way to a 3 seed courtesy of our 3 game lead on Philly, but we are currently 6th overall in the conference. In addition, we are just a 1/2 game behind Cleveland and Chicago for the 4 spot, and 1.5 games behind Washington for the 3 spot. With Washington and Cleveland struggling, and given the fact that we've already handed Chicago their lunch twice this season, it is no longer a stretch to say that the East will come down to Miami, Detroit, and Boston. The Celtics have a major advantage over each team. We have better depth than Detroit, and we have more than one way to make our offense run, something that Miami doesn't have. Miami has little depth, and the two good players they do have, always have the ball in their hands. That's a recipe for disaster, just ask the C's of 2001-2002.
In the end, I know that no matter how it turns out, this has already been a great season. After the game ended tonight I immediately got three phone calls. The Celtics of 2004-2005 are special, and people care about the C's again. I couldn't be happier.
Thursday, March 10, 2005
Let the Fantasies Begin
Today marked the official start of the Fantasy season for me, as I had my first draft. Due to some scheduling difficulties, it was in the middle of the day, and I couldn't participate myself. Fortunately I went in prepared and my boy NPD hooked me up for the important rounds. The league is a ten team, head-to-head league, with the following categories:
Offense: R, HR, RBI, SB, BB, K, OPS
Defense: IP, W, L, SV, K, ERA, WHIP
A league constructed like this puts very little emphasis on closers in my mind, because they will help significantly in one category: saves. Now, if this was a regular rotisserie league, I would have to compete on saves, so as to not finish in the cellar in that category. However, this is a weekly league, and I would rather have a significant advantage in six categories and suck in one, than to be pretty good across the board and hope things break my way each week. Lastly, if you have two great closers, but one of your teams is in a slump in a given week, you essentially have one useless pitcher. Why bother? I purposely excluded closers in my draft strategy. Here are the results:
Round 1, Pick 1: Albert Pujols
Round 2, Pick 10: Jason Schmidt
Round 3, Pick 1: Curt Schilling
Round 4, Pick 10: Ben Sheets
Round 5, Pick 1: Eric Chavez
Round 6, Pick 10: JD Drew
Round 7, Pick 1: Matt Clement
Round 8, Pick 10: Joe Mauer
Round 9, Pick 1: Ray Durham
Round 10, Pick 10: Brian Giles
Round 11, Pick 1: Andruw Jones
Round 12, Pick 10: Zach Greinke
Round 13, Pick 1: Brad Radke
Round 14, Pick 10: Milton Bradley
Round 15, Pick 1: Kaz Matsui
Round 16, Pick 10: Scot Shields
Round 17, Pick 1: Atnori Otsuka
Round 18, Pick 10: Bronson Arroyo
Round 19, Pick 1: Corey Koskie
Round 20, Pick 10: Mike Sweeney
Round 21, Pick 1: D'Angelo Jimenez
Incredible. Simply incredible. A rotation of Schmidt, Schill, Sheets, Clement, Greinke, Radke, and Arroyo. 7 awesome pitchers. And while I didn't have the greatest lineup, it was more than solid. From here the real fun begins. Larry, our league commish, doesn't like waivers. Neither do I to be honest, but I have become accustomed to them. I'm sure someone will abuse this privilege later in the season, and I may bring that to his attention, but for now it's very cool. Changes made:
D'Angelo Jimenez dropped for Trot Nixon
Mike Sweeney dropped for BJ Upton
Kaz Matsui dropped for Mike Gonzalez
Milton Bradley dropped for Tadahito Iguchi
So here's how things shape up:
C: Joe Mauer
1B: Albert Pujols
2B: Ray Durham, Tadahitp Iguchi
3B: Eric Chavez, Corey Koskie, BJ Upton
SS: BJ Upton
OF: JD Drew, Brian Giles, Andruw Jones, Trot Nixon
SP: Jason Schmidt, Curt Schilling, Ben Sheets, Matt Clement, Zach Greinke, Brad Radke, Bronson Arroyo
RP: Scot Shields, Atnori Otsuka, Mike Gonzalez
Suffice to say I'm pretty happy. It's hard to be nitpicking after such a good draft, but potential weaknesses lie in a lack of steals, and possibly wins, as Sheets and Greinke pitch for below average clubs, and Arroyo is somehow not a lock for the rotation. Upton faces a similar fate, as Sweet Lou is almost completely irrational at this point. If Upton gets sent down to AAA that would suck, but I suppose I could pick up Khalil Greene or Matsui.
All in all, this might be my best first draft of the season on record. I suppose it is actually my second draft, what with my Scoresheet league and all, but that didn't have the same feel, because I was able to take my time with each pick.
Offense: R, HR, RBI, SB, BB, K, OPS
Defense: IP, W, L, SV, K, ERA, WHIP
A league constructed like this puts very little emphasis on closers in my mind, because they will help significantly in one category: saves. Now, if this was a regular rotisserie league, I would have to compete on saves, so as to not finish in the cellar in that category. However, this is a weekly league, and I would rather have a significant advantage in six categories and suck in one, than to be pretty good across the board and hope things break my way each week. Lastly, if you have two great closers, but one of your teams is in a slump in a given week, you essentially have one useless pitcher. Why bother? I purposely excluded closers in my draft strategy. Here are the results:
Round 1, Pick 1: Albert Pujols
Round 2, Pick 10: Jason Schmidt
Round 3, Pick 1: Curt Schilling
Round 4, Pick 10: Ben Sheets
Round 5, Pick 1: Eric Chavez
Round 6, Pick 10: JD Drew
Round 7, Pick 1: Matt Clement
Round 8, Pick 10: Joe Mauer
Round 9, Pick 1: Ray Durham
Round 10, Pick 10: Brian Giles
Round 11, Pick 1: Andruw Jones
Round 12, Pick 10: Zach Greinke
Round 13, Pick 1: Brad Radke
Round 14, Pick 10: Milton Bradley
Round 15, Pick 1: Kaz Matsui
Round 16, Pick 10: Scot Shields
Round 17, Pick 1: Atnori Otsuka
Round 18, Pick 10: Bronson Arroyo
Round 19, Pick 1: Corey Koskie
Round 20, Pick 10: Mike Sweeney
Round 21, Pick 1: D'Angelo Jimenez
Incredible. Simply incredible. A rotation of Schmidt, Schill, Sheets, Clement, Greinke, Radke, and Arroyo. 7 awesome pitchers. And while I didn't have the greatest lineup, it was more than solid. From here the real fun begins. Larry, our league commish, doesn't like waivers. Neither do I to be honest, but I have become accustomed to them. I'm sure someone will abuse this privilege later in the season, and I may bring that to his attention, but for now it's very cool. Changes made:
D'Angelo Jimenez dropped for Trot Nixon
Mike Sweeney dropped for BJ Upton
Kaz Matsui dropped for Mike Gonzalez
Milton Bradley dropped for Tadahito Iguchi
So here's how things shape up:
C: Joe Mauer
1B: Albert Pujols
2B: Ray Durham, Tadahitp Iguchi
3B: Eric Chavez, Corey Koskie, BJ Upton
SS: BJ Upton
OF: JD Drew, Brian Giles, Andruw Jones, Trot Nixon
SP: Jason Schmidt, Curt Schilling, Ben Sheets, Matt Clement, Zach Greinke, Brad Radke, Bronson Arroyo
RP: Scot Shields, Atnori Otsuka, Mike Gonzalez
Suffice to say I'm pretty happy. It's hard to be nitpicking after such a good draft, but potential weaknesses lie in a lack of steals, and possibly wins, as Sheets and Greinke pitch for below average clubs, and Arroyo is somehow not a lock for the rotation. Upton faces a similar fate, as Sweet Lou is almost completely irrational at this point. If Upton gets sent down to AAA that would suck, but I suppose I could pick up Khalil Greene or Matsui.
All in all, this might be my best first draft of the season on record. I suppose it is actually my second draft, what with my Scoresheet league and all, but that didn't have the same feel, because I was able to take my time with each pick.
Wednesday, March 09, 2005
Fun Fact for the Day
From Will Carroll:
Last season, one of every nine pitchers in the majors had undergone Tommy John surgery.
25 days 'til Red Sox Opening Night!
26 days 'til Rockies Opening Day!
Last season, one of every nine pitchers in the majors had undergone Tommy John surgery.
25 days 'til Red Sox Opening Night!
26 days 'til Rockies Opening Day!
Saturday, March 05, 2005
Depth
My good friend NP asked me yesterday, where would I rank the Celtics depth now that we have the Glove back in the fold? That was a good question, not surprised, because he often comes up with good questions. Well, here I am, Saturday morning, and my fiancee won't be up for probably four hours. So let's take a look at this shall we?
We'll use ESPN.com depth charts for simplicity's sake:
At PG, the C's now have GP, West, and Banks. Very solid. West and Banks are still raw, but have played extremely well as of late.
ESPN.com lists Ricky Davis and Tony Allen as SG, and Pierce and Justin Reed as SF. I think Pierce and Davis can play the 2 or 3, but I'll go with ESPN here. That leaves us deeper at SG in the long-term, though right now Allen has an ankle injury. I haven't seen enough of Reed to comment on him, but I know Doc and Ainge like him. But for right now, we have the least depth at SF, which is fine because Pierce can play 40 minutes a game, and people can rotate from other positions to the 3 when he sits.
The front court is becoming our real strength. At PF, we now have Employee #8 and BIG Al Jefferson. That is a very formidable 1-2 punch at the 4. At the 5, we now have LaFrentz starting, with Blount and Perk coming off the bench. This is great depth here. Three seven footers, all with shot blocking ability. Limiting Blount to twenty minutes or less per game is just what this team needed, and it seems to have re-energized Blount as well, so maybe it's a win-win.
Now let's go around the league, in alphabetical order:
Atlanta: Atlanta may have the worst bench in the NBA. Outside of rookie Donta Smith, and he's a reach, I don't think there is one bench guy I would rather have than what the C's have. Edge: C's
Charlotte: They have a good 1-2 at C in Brezec and Ely. Kareem Rush is a good sub off the bench at #2. Overall, not as good depth as the C's. Edge: C's
Chicago: This is a real contest here. The way ESPN lists it, the C's definitely have better PG depth, but the Bulls combo of Hinrich and Gordon wins at SG, as does the Deng/Nocioni combo at SF. They also have Antonio Davis as PF1 and Tyson Chandler as PF2. I don't know that's true, and it doesn't matter anyways, I'll take 'Toine and BIG Al over those 2, as solid as they may be. Overall, it's close. The Bulls record is better by a half game, but we beat the Bulls twice this year before we got Antoine back, so I have to give the C's the nod here. Edge: C's
Cleveland: Great PG depth with McInnis/Snow. Lots of names at SG, but not a lot of production to date. Same with SF, although LeBron/Welsch/Jackson is still better than Pierce/Reed. They have good depth at PF with Gooden and Traylor, but both of those guys run hot and cold. Diop hasn't proven a credible backup yet behind Z. Edge: C's
Dallas: This is no contest, Dallas has better depth at 1-4, and you can make a case for Dampier/Bradley over Lafrentz/Blount/Perk. Edge: Dallas
Denver: PG depth is about equal, little more seasoning for Miller and Boynkins, but Miller is a bad passer, so they are often forced to play together, which is counterintuitive of having depth. SG is a strength when Voshon comes back healthy, and right now he isn't. SF and C are their best positions. With 'Melo/Najera/B Russell at SF and Camby/Nene/Elson at C, they have better depth than the C's at those spots. This is close, but - Edge: Deeeez Nugs
Detroit: Boston's likely opponent in the 2nd round this spring. Good 1-2 at PG with Billups and Arroyo. Not much there at SG besides Rip, although they like Delfino off the bench. Again, not much past Prince at SF, though they find ways to work Dupree and Ham into the game. At the 4, they have 2 solid guys in Wallace and Dice. Big Ben is by himself at the 5. Overall, they are a team built on a solid foundation of starters, but Larry Brown is a great coach, and gets what he needs from his subs, which is why they win. However, on paper this is not a very talented bench. Edge: C's
Golden State: Getting better by the day. Now with Baron Davis and Fish, they might have the best 1-2 PG combo in the league. Richardson and Pietrius is a strong combo at the 2 as well. They don't really have one good 3 at all, I don't know if they're still starting Dunleavy, but if they are that's a mistake. There's not much to love in the front court outside of the oft-injured Troy Murphy, and that really lowers their marks. Edge: C's
Houston: Much like Detroit, this is a team with a lot of role players from which Van Gundy squeezes every drop of effectiveness. I can't say that Sura/Mike James/ C Ward is a better group than the C's talent-wise, but they get the job done. You can throw Moochie Norris in there as well. Same goes for SG: I'll take Ricky Davis and Tony Allen over David Wesley and Jon Barry, but the latter does enough to complement McGrady and Yao to be effective. At SF, I think Justin Reed has a better future than Ryan Bowen, who had his shot with the Nuggets the last couple of years. At PF, the quartet of Juwan, Padgett, 'Spoon, and Vin the Gin Baker aren't that formidable themselves. At C they have a true edge with Yao and Dikembe, if for comedic purposes only. Edge: C's
Indiana: There's not much to love at PG. SG will be a strength even after Reggie retires, as the Pacers will still have pyscho Stephen Jackson and Fred Jones. Assuming Artest is on the roster, they win at SF over the C's as well. O'Neal and Croshere is a close call between 'Toine and Jefferson. Center is a close call as well, but Harrison is third on that chart, and he proved he could step in and be effective earlier in the year. Edge: Indiana
LA Clippers: Good depth at PG, SG, and PF, but only for this year. Maric, Kittles, and Wilcox will all hit the bricks as free agents this summer, returning those strengths back to normal. Edge: C's
LA Lakers: They play better than they look on paper, which I suppose is a tribute to Kobe, although not much of one. The Laker real depth is in 3 and 4. They have Butler, Jumaine Jones, Devean George, and Luke Walton at the 3, with Brian Grant, Brian Cook, and Slava M listed at the 4. This is a close call between the C's, but the C's should have won both games, and the lack of a backcourt prescense when Kobe was injured killed this team. I don't think the same would be true for Boston if Pierce was hurt. Edge: C's
Memphis: This is a frustrating team, as they go two deep at every position, but never seem to put it all together. Their listed subs at each position, Earl Watson, Mike Miller, Shane Battier, Brian Cardinal, and Strohmile Swift would be a good starting 5 for some teams. Throw Dantae Jones in there as well, and that's a solid 11 guys, 10 of whom have good NBA experience. Edge: Memphis
Miami: This is the team that will be exposed the most for their lack of depth once the marathon that is the playoffs starts. I am predicting a round 2 upset at the hands of LeBron for this bunch. Keyon Dooling isn't much of a backup at PG and SG2 Steve Smith should have retired two years ago. They have good depth at SF with Eddie Jones, Rasual Butler, Shandon Anderson, and Qyntel Woods. Haslem and Laettner fit well at PF, but they're not better than the C's duo. They have good depth at C now that they have Zo, but this matters very little with Shaq, and seems like money poorly spent. They should be spending their money trying to find a backup PG. Or a starting PG for that matter. Edge: C's
Milwaukee: Is TJ Ford back? I like him. They have good depth at SG as well, I hope Redd stays in Milwaukee this summer. They have a good 1-2 at the 3 with Mason and Kukoc. There's not much in the front court however. Edge: C's
Minnesota: Great depth at PG, SG, and SF. Don't really need their depth behind Garnett, but that is solid too with Madsen. They have nothing at C at all, but the rest gives them the nod. Edge: Minnesota
New Jersey: Nothing behind Kidd, which killed all shots of making the playoffs. Nothing behind VC. I guess Ron Mercer is a good backup for RJeff. Collins, C Robinson, and Scalabrine is pretty good at PF. They have nothing at Center. Edge: C's
New Orleans: Ugh. Some intriguing talent here, but outside of Magloire, their starters are backups on other teams. Edge: C's
New York: In terms of talent, they're better than last year. That's as positive as I can be about this bloated payroll full of underachievers. They're deep at SG with Crawford, Houston, and Penny, and they run 3 deep at SF with Thomas, Williams, and Ariza, on whom my buddy Kev is very high. They run 3 deep at PF as well. On paper, they're deeper than the C's, but they're led by Starbury, who sinks every ship he boards, so it will never matter. Edge: New York
Orlando: Jameer Nelson is like Delonte and Banks, talented but raw. He also gets less time on the floor with Stevie Franchise running the show. Christie and Turkoglu is solid at SG. Hill, Garrity, and Plastic Man are good at SF. They're deep at PF also with Dwight Howard, Battie, and Brandon Hunter, though I think Hunter should be listed in front of Battie. Overall, they're riding a lot of veterans, and thus their depth won't last long-term. Edge: C's
Philadelphia: Ollie isn't much of a backup at PG, but with AI there it doesn't matter. The four guys listed at SG - Korver, McKie, Green, and Salmons are solid. Not much of anything behind rookie Iggy at SF. Rogers is servicable as Webber's backup, as is Jackson as as Dalembert's, with Jackson being more effective of the two. By position, I like the C's depth better at PG, SF, and PF. Give a slight edge to Philly at SG with C being a toss up. Edge: C's
Phoenix: Nash is the man, and Barbosa is talented. Joe Johnson and Jim Jackson is a good duo. Quentin Richardson and Waltah are good, but I'll take Pierce and Reed over them. Marion, Hunter, and Outlaw are about a draw with 'Toine and Big Al. Stoudemire alone is better than the Celtics 3 centers, and Voskuhl is no scrub either. Edge: Phoenix
Portland: Similar to NY, as their talent is better than their record, probably one of the reasons Maurice Cheeks was just released. Great PG depth, although they're losing at least one of the two in Van Exel and Stoudemire, possibly both. I can't wait to see Telfair get more minutes next year. They have nothing at SG. Great depth at SF in Shareef, Miles, and Patterson. Ratliff and Randolph are a formidable duo at PF. Nothing to speak of at the 5. This is close, but they lose points because they will lose a lot of this depth after the season and because they have played so poorly together. Edge: C's
Sacramento: Talk about dismantling. Even with the losses of Christie and Webber, they remain deep however. Bibby/Jackson/House is great depth at PG. Stojakovic and Corliss is good at the 3. Thomas and Songalia are decent at the 4. Miller, Ostertag, and Skinner are better than decent at the 5. Overall, the C's win at SG and PF, the Kings win at PG and SF, and experience and size tips towards the Kings favor enough at C to give them the edge there as well. Edge: Sacramento
San Antonio: Parker might be France's best export since wine and cheese, and Udrih has been a relevation as his backup. Ginobli/Barry/D Brown is a great 1-2-3 at SG. They have Big Game Bob Horry behind Duncan, and Mohammed behind Rasho. If they don't end up in the NBA Finals that is an upset. Edge: San Antonio
Seattle: Ridnour and Antonio Daniels are both capable starters. The same is true for Ray Allen and Flip Murray at the 2, and for Rashard Lewis and Vlad Rad at the 3. Their depth is also very solid at the 4, with Reggie Evans, Fortson, and Collison. If Robert Swift is as good as Danny Ainge thinks he is, then they have something at the 5 as well. That the C's beat this team in both meetings this year is a major achievement. Edge: Seattle
Toronto: A team in shambles. Rose and Mo Pete are good at the 2. Bosh and Marshall are good at the 4, and Araujo is supposed to be good eventually. Otherwise, there's not much depth here. Edge: C's
Utah: Giving up on Carlos Arroyo was a typically hardheaded Jerry Sloan move. A very stupid move. Instead of having 3 backup point guards and one starter they now just have 3 backups. Any could start with similar results. They do have good depth at SG and SF. They have promise at PF with Boozer and Humphries, though I'm not sure that Humphries has as much promise as Big Al. Collins has been a dissapointment at C, and at best Okur cancels out LaFrentz. They should have been better with Kirilenko out, but not having a good point guard will kill you. Edge: C's
Washington: This is a close call. They have good depth at PG. Peeler is servicable as Hughes backup. Jeffries and Hayes are solid at SF. Jamison and Thomas are good, but not as good as the C's PF's overall. Haywood is solid, but Kwame Brown has been a failure thus far. Edge: C's
Overall, the Celtics rank 11th in depth, behind Dallas, Denver, Indiana, Memphis, Minnesota, New York, Phoenix, Sacramento, San Antonio, and Seattle. Does this mean the C's are the 11th best team? Maybe, maybe not. Of this list, I think the C's are a better team than Denver, Indy, Memphis, Minnesota, and New York. However, teams like Cleveland and Detroit may be better than the C's overall, even though they do not have the depth the C's do. It should be noted that this isn't based on statistics, but rather talent level and my gut instinct. My optimism also has to be tempered by the fact that GP and Antoine could very well be history in three months. However, given how quickly Ainge has righted the ship, I am confident that if the Payton and Walker do leave, Ainge will find the right replacements. I also have a good deal of faith in Doc Rivers, who was a victim of a selfish McGrady in Orlando, a fact the Magic all but admitted in the offseason when they traded him. Overall, the C's are at worst the 4th best team in the East right now, and they have a legitimate shot to make it to the NBA Finals this season as their upside. In any case, it's going to be a fun ride.
We'll use ESPN.com depth charts for simplicity's sake:
At PG, the C's now have GP, West, and Banks. Very solid. West and Banks are still raw, but have played extremely well as of late.
ESPN.com lists Ricky Davis and Tony Allen as SG, and Pierce and Justin Reed as SF. I think Pierce and Davis can play the 2 or 3, but I'll go with ESPN here. That leaves us deeper at SG in the long-term, though right now Allen has an ankle injury. I haven't seen enough of Reed to comment on him, but I know Doc and Ainge like him. But for right now, we have the least depth at SF, which is fine because Pierce can play 40 minutes a game, and people can rotate from other positions to the 3 when he sits.
The front court is becoming our real strength. At PF, we now have Employee #8 and BIG Al Jefferson. That is a very formidable 1-2 punch at the 4. At the 5, we now have LaFrentz starting, with Blount and Perk coming off the bench. This is great depth here. Three seven footers, all with shot blocking ability. Limiting Blount to twenty minutes or less per game is just what this team needed, and it seems to have re-energized Blount as well, so maybe it's a win-win.
Now let's go around the league, in alphabetical order:
Atlanta: Atlanta may have the worst bench in the NBA. Outside of rookie Donta Smith, and he's a reach, I don't think there is one bench guy I would rather have than what the C's have. Edge: C's
Charlotte: They have a good 1-2 at C in Brezec and Ely. Kareem Rush is a good sub off the bench at #2. Overall, not as good depth as the C's. Edge: C's
Chicago: This is a real contest here. The way ESPN lists it, the C's definitely have better PG depth, but the Bulls combo of Hinrich and Gordon wins at SG, as does the Deng/Nocioni combo at SF. They also have Antonio Davis as PF1 and Tyson Chandler as PF2. I don't know that's true, and it doesn't matter anyways, I'll take 'Toine and BIG Al over those 2, as solid as they may be. Overall, it's close. The Bulls record is better by a half game, but we beat the Bulls twice this year before we got Antoine back, so I have to give the C's the nod here. Edge: C's
Cleveland: Great PG depth with McInnis/Snow. Lots of names at SG, but not a lot of production to date. Same with SF, although LeBron/Welsch/Jackson is still better than Pierce/Reed. They have good depth at PF with Gooden and Traylor, but both of those guys run hot and cold. Diop hasn't proven a credible backup yet behind Z. Edge: C's
Dallas: This is no contest, Dallas has better depth at 1-4, and you can make a case for Dampier/Bradley over Lafrentz/Blount/Perk. Edge: Dallas
Denver: PG depth is about equal, little more seasoning for Miller and Boynkins, but Miller is a bad passer, so they are often forced to play together, which is counterintuitive of having depth. SG is a strength when Voshon comes back healthy, and right now he isn't. SF and C are their best positions. With 'Melo/Najera/B Russell at SF and Camby/Nene/Elson at C, they have better depth than the C's at those spots. This is close, but - Edge: Deeeez Nugs
Detroit: Boston's likely opponent in the 2nd round this spring. Good 1-2 at PG with Billups and Arroyo. Not much there at SG besides Rip, although they like Delfino off the bench. Again, not much past Prince at SF, though they find ways to work Dupree and Ham into the game. At the 4, they have 2 solid guys in Wallace and Dice. Big Ben is by himself at the 5. Overall, they are a team built on a solid foundation of starters, but Larry Brown is a great coach, and gets what he needs from his subs, which is why they win. However, on paper this is not a very talented bench. Edge: C's
Golden State: Getting better by the day. Now with Baron Davis and Fish, they might have the best 1-2 PG combo in the league. Richardson and Pietrius is a strong combo at the 2 as well. They don't really have one good 3 at all, I don't know if they're still starting Dunleavy, but if they are that's a mistake. There's not much to love in the front court outside of the oft-injured Troy Murphy, and that really lowers their marks. Edge: C's
Houston: Much like Detroit, this is a team with a lot of role players from which Van Gundy squeezes every drop of effectiveness. I can't say that Sura/Mike James/ C Ward is a better group than the C's talent-wise, but they get the job done. You can throw Moochie Norris in there as well. Same goes for SG: I'll take Ricky Davis and Tony Allen over David Wesley and Jon Barry, but the latter does enough to complement McGrady and Yao to be effective. At SF, I think Justin Reed has a better future than Ryan Bowen, who had his shot with the Nuggets the last couple of years. At PF, the quartet of Juwan, Padgett, 'Spoon, and Vin the Gin Baker aren't that formidable themselves. At C they have a true edge with Yao and Dikembe, if for comedic purposes only. Edge: C's
Indiana: There's not much to love at PG. SG will be a strength even after Reggie retires, as the Pacers will still have pyscho Stephen Jackson and Fred Jones. Assuming Artest is on the roster, they win at SF over the C's as well. O'Neal and Croshere is a close call between 'Toine and Jefferson. Center is a close call as well, but Harrison is third on that chart, and he proved he could step in and be effective earlier in the year. Edge: Indiana
LA Clippers: Good depth at PG, SG, and PF, but only for this year. Maric, Kittles, and Wilcox will all hit the bricks as free agents this summer, returning those strengths back to normal. Edge: C's
LA Lakers: They play better than they look on paper, which I suppose is a tribute to Kobe, although not much of one. The Laker real depth is in 3 and 4. They have Butler, Jumaine Jones, Devean George, and Luke Walton at the 3, with Brian Grant, Brian Cook, and Slava M listed at the 4. This is a close call between the C's, but the C's should have won both games, and the lack of a backcourt prescense when Kobe was injured killed this team. I don't think the same would be true for Boston if Pierce was hurt. Edge: C's
Memphis: This is a frustrating team, as they go two deep at every position, but never seem to put it all together. Their listed subs at each position, Earl Watson, Mike Miller, Shane Battier, Brian Cardinal, and Strohmile Swift would be a good starting 5 for some teams. Throw Dantae Jones in there as well, and that's a solid 11 guys, 10 of whom have good NBA experience. Edge: Memphis
Miami: This is the team that will be exposed the most for their lack of depth once the marathon that is the playoffs starts. I am predicting a round 2 upset at the hands of LeBron for this bunch. Keyon Dooling isn't much of a backup at PG and SG2 Steve Smith should have retired two years ago. They have good depth at SF with Eddie Jones, Rasual Butler, Shandon Anderson, and Qyntel Woods. Haslem and Laettner fit well at PF, but they're not better than the C's duo. They have good depth at C now that they have Zo, but this matters very little with Shaq, and seems like money poorly spent. They should be spending their money trying to find a backup PG. Or a starting PG for that matter. Edge: C's
Milwaukee: Is TJ Ford back? I like him. They have good depth at SG as well, I hope Redd stays in Milwaukee this summer. They have a good 1-2 at the 3 with Mason and Kukoc. There's not much in the front court however. Edge: C's
Minnesota: Great depth at PG, SG, and SF. Don't really need their depth behind Garnett, but that is solid too with Madsen. They have nothing at C at all, but the rest gives them the nod. Edge: Minnesota
New Jersey: Nothing behind Kidd, which killed all shots of making the playoffs. Nothing behind VC. I guess Ron Mercer is a good backup for RJeff. Collins, C Robinson, and Scalabrine is pretty good at PF. They have nothing at Center. Edge: C's
New Orleans: Ugh. Some intriguing talent here, but outside of Magloire, their starters are backups on other teams. Edge: C's
New York: In terms of talent, they're better than last year. That's as positive as I can be about this bloated payroll full of underachievers. They're deep at SG with Crawford, Houston, and Penny, and they run 3 deep at SF with Thomas, Williams, and Ariza, on whom my buddy Kev is very high. They run 3 deep at PF as well. On paper, they're deeper than the C's, but they're led by Starbury, who sinks every ship he boards, so it will never matter. Edge: New York
Orlando: Jameer Nelson is like Delonte and Banks, talented but raw. He also gets less time on the floor with Stevie Franchise running the show. Christie and Turkoglu is solid at SG. Hill, Garrity, and Plastic Man are good at SF. They're deep at PF also with Dwight Howard, Battie, and Brandon Hunter, though I think Hunter should be listed in front of Battie. Overall, they're riding a lot of veterans, and thus their depth won't last long-term. Edge: C's
Philadelphia: Ollie isn't much of a backup at PG, but with AI there it doesn't matter. The four guys listed at SG - Korver, McKie, Green, and Salmons are solid. Not much of anything behind rookie Iggy at SF. Rogers is servicable as Webber's backup, as is Jackson as as Dalembert's, with Jackson being more effective of the two. By position, I like the C's depth better at PG, SF, and PF. Give a slight edge to Philly at SG with C being a toss up. Edge: C's
Phoenix: Nash is the man, and Barbosa is talented. Joe Johnson and Jim Jackson is a good duo. Quentin Richardson and Waltah are good, but I'll take Pierce and Reed over them. Marion, Hunter, and Outlaw are about a draw with 'Toine and Big Al. Stoudemire alone is better than the Celtics 3 centers, and Voskuhl is no scrub either. Edge: Phoenix
Portland: Similar to NY, as their talent is better than their record, probably one of the reasons Maurice Cheeks was just released. Great PG depth, although they're losing at least one of the two in Van Exel and Stoudemire, possibly both. I can't wait to see Telfair get more minutes next year. They have nothing at SG. Great depth at SF in Shareef, Miles, and Patterson. Ratliff and Randolph are a formidable duo at PF. Nothing to speak of at the 5. This is close, but they lose points because they will lose a lot of this depth after the season and because they have played so poorly together. Edge: C's
Sacramento: Talk about dismantling. Even with the losses of Christie and Webber, they remain deep however. Bibby/Jackson/House is great depth at PG. Stojakovic and Corliss is good at the 3. Thomas and Songalia are decent at the 4. Miller, Ostertag, and Skinner are better than decent at the 5. Overall, the C's win at SG and PF, the Kings win at PG and SF, and experience and size tips towards the Kings favor enough at C to give them the edge there as well. Edge: Sacramento
San Antonio: Parker might be France's best export since wine and cheese, and Udrih has been a relevation as his backup. Ginobli/Barry/D Brown is a great 1-2-3 at SG. They have Big Game Bob Horry behind Duncan, and Mohammed behind Rasho. If they don't end up in the NBA Finals that is an upset. Edge: San Antonio
Seattle: Ridnour and Antonio Daniels are both capable starters. The same is true for Ray Allen and Flip Murray at the 2, and for Rashard Lewis and Vlad Rad at the 3. Their depth is also very solid at the 4, with Reggie Evans, Fortson, and Collison. If Robert Swift is as good as Danny Ainge thinks he is, then they have something at the 5 as well. That the C's beat this team in both meetings this year is a major achievement. Edge: Seattle
Toronto: A team in shambles. Rose and Mo Pete are good at the 2. Bosh and Marshall are good at the 4, and Araujo is supposed to be good eventually. Otherwise, there's not much depth here. Edge: C's
Utah: Giving up on Carlos Arroyo was a typically hardheaded Jerry Sloan move. A very stupid move. Instead of having 3 backup point guards and one starter they now just have 3 backups. Any could start with similar results. They do have good depth at SG and SF. They have promise at PF with Boozer and Humphries, though I'm not sure that Humphries has as much promise as Big Al. Collins has been a dissapointment at C, and at best Okur cancels out LaFrentz. They should have been better with Kirilenko out, but not having a good point guard will kill you. Edge: C's
Washington: This is a close call. They have good depth at PG. Peeler is servicable as Hughes backup. Jeffries and Hayes are solid at SF. Jamison and Thomas are good, but not as good as the C's PF's overall. Haywood is solid, but Kwame Brown has been a failure thus far. Edge: C's
Overall, the Celtics rank 11th in depth, behind Dallas, Denver, Indiana, Memphis, Minnesota, New York, Phoenix, Sacramento, San Antonio, and Seattle. Does this mean the C's are the 11th best team? Maybe, maybe not. Of this list, I think the C's are a better team than Denver, Indy, Memphis, Minnesota, and New York. However, teams like Cleveland and Detroit may be better than the C's overall, even though they do not have the depth the C's do. It should be noted that this isn't based on statistics, but rather talent level and my gut instinct. My optimism also has to be tempered by the fact that GP and Antoine could very well be history in three months. However, given how quickly Ainge has righted the ship, I am confident that if the Payton and Walker do leave, Ainge will find the right replacements. I also have a good deal of faith in Doc Rivers, who was a victim of a selfish McGrady in Orlando, a fact the Magic all but admitted in the offseason when they traded him. Overall, the C's are at worst the 4th best team in the East right now, and they have a legitimate shot to make it to the NBA Finals this season as their upside. In any case, it's going to be a fun ride.
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