Thursday, September 04, 2008

NFL 2008

Let's just get right to it.

32. Kansas City Chiefs
2007 Prediction: 4-12
2007 Record: 4-12
2008 Prediction: 2-14

Kansas City is going to get worse before they get better, but at least they have a plan and a man that knows a little something about rebuilding in Herm Edwards.

31. Atlanta Falcons
2007 Prediction: 3-13
2007 Record: 4-12
2008 Prediction: 3-13

Matt Ryan sucks, as do most people that come out of BC. Unlike KC, Atlanta does not seem to have any real plan, unless the plan is "draft an overrated BC 'star' and watch him suck for six years."

30. Miami Dolphins
2007 Prediction: 3-13
2007 Record: 1-15
2008 Prediction: 4-12

Getting Chad Pennington will help the Dolphins get out to a 3-1 start and briefly restore respectability before watching it fall apart at the seams. Bill Parcells teams are always better in year two though, so this is just the prelude.

29. Chicago Bears
2007 Prediction: 11-5
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 5-11

I won't be making the mistake of overrating the Bears defense a second year in a row. No matter how good it is, the Bears have no quarterback, no running backs and no wide receivers of note. 29th may be high...

28. Cincinnati Bengals
2007 Prediction: 10-6
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 5-11

This team self destructed last year as well. Things aren't looking much better, and with the Ravens rebounding the Bengals will slip even further in the division standings.

27. San Francisco 49ers
2007 Prediction: 10-6
2007 Record: 5-11
2008 Prediction: 5-11

I bought into the hype last season, but now there is little reason for hope. Running backs don't do very well in Mike Martz's system, yet the Niners only offensive weapon is their running back, Frank Gore. Since Martz has proven to be one of the most stubborn coaches in football, this probably won't end well in San Fran.

26. Arizona Cardinals
2007 Prediction: 6-10
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 5-11

Had Anquan Boldin not demanded a trade, and had Matt Leinart stepped up and won the QB job, I might be more optimistic. But Boldin did demand a trade and Leinart choked off training camp. If the injury prone players on their defense can stay on the field, they have a chance to beat this projection, but I'm not holding my breath.

25. Denver Broncos
2007 Prediction: 9-7
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 6-10

"Teflon" Mike Shanahan failed to accept any responsibility once again, what a shock! This team has three good players - Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Champ Bailey. Cutler will need to make those strides everyone in Denver has been talking about, and Ryan Clady and Tony Scheffler will have to step up big time just to get to six wins.

24. Cleveland Browns
2007 Prediction: 5-11
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 6-10

Cleveland had one of the easiest schedules last year and took advantage. Everything went right and they still didn't make the playoffs. In the offseason, they traded away their best defensive back, and they weren't strong at the position in the first place. In a related story, their out of division opponents include quarterbacks like Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Jason Campbell, David Garrard, Matt Schaub, Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb. Oh, and Cincy and Pittsburgh have pretty good quarterbacks too. This won't end well for the Browns.

23. Tennessee Titans
2007 Prediction: 8-8
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 6-10

I don't like this prediction very much. I actually think Tennessee is better than my prediction, but I also am a big believer in Houston this season, and it's very difficult for all four teams in one division to be good. This is a very hard-luck six win season.

22. Washington Redskins
2007 Prediction: 8-8
2007 Record: 9-7
2008 Prediction: 6-10

Like the Bears, the Redskins have very little offensive firepower. I keep hearing that Jason Campbell is going to be good, but until he has good receivers it's going to be hard to tell. I mean, James Thrash, seriously? Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts are still good, but defenses can stack seven to eight in the box on every play and feel confident that the Redskins aerial attack won't beat them consistently.

21. Detroit Lions
2007 Prediction: 4-12
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 6-10

If Calvin Johnson emerges as expected, the Lions should at least be very entertaining, as he and Roy Williams will be targeted all year. When you sign a waived and washed up Rudi Johnson with a week to go in the season, it's probably not a good sign for your ground game. And with mediocre defenders surrounding play makers Ernie Sims and Leigh Bodden, the defense isn't anything to write home about either.

20. St. Louis Rams
2007 Prediction: 5-11
2007 Record: 3-13
2008 Prediction: 7-9

If the Rams can stay out of the trainers room and Chris Long can make an immediate impact, the Rams should be much improved from last year. They won't be good per se, but they will be better. And that's something.

19. Oakland Raiders
2007 Prediction: 6-10
2007 Record: 4-12
2008 Prediction: 7-9

I am expecting big things from the JaMarcus Russell-Darren McFadden back field. The Raiders D is already solid, so if these two can produce better results then they will improve enough to be in position for a playoff spot in 2009.

18. Buffalo Bills
2007 Prediction: 6-10
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 8-8

The Bills keep getting better a little bit at a time. Trent Edwards should make more strides this year, and Marshawn Lynch already has. The defense got big additions with Kawika Mitchell and Marcus Stroud, and that will help them become a respectable unit.

17. Carolina Panthers
2007 Prediction: 9-7
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 8-8

Jake Delhomme may be pain free, but Steve Smith will miss a few games and they will be working in a rookie running back into the mix. They will be mediocre, which will almost be good enough in the NFC South.

16. New York Giants
2007 Prediction: 5-11
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 8-8

Like so many, I completely whiffed on my Giants prediction last season. That doesn't mean I will be fooled into thinking that they are now all powerful or something along those lines. They will be good enough to compete for a playoff spot, but will ultimately fall short. It would be a different story if they had Osi...

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2007 Prediction: 7-9
2007 Record: 9-7
2008 Prediction: 9-7

This team has got alligator blood, which is fitting given their geography. But what they have in toughness and fundamentals, they lack in star power. They will just miss the playoffs.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers
2007 Prediction: 10-6
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 9-7

Many people think it will be business as usual in the Steel City, but the weakened offensive line is troublesome. Second, they did very little to upgrade the team's starters. And third, their schedule is killer. Out of division opponents include Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, San Diego, New England and Dallas. That's a tough slate for any team to overcome, and Pittsburgh won't be up to the challenge this year.

13. New York Jets
2007 Prediction: 8-8
2007 Record: 4-12
2008 Prediction: 9-7

The Jets will be better. But if history has taught us anything, it's that you can't throw money at a problem and expect everything to be just jolly good fun. The Jets will be better because of their free agent imports, but they won't be good enough to make the playoffs. And playing those free agents will set back the progress they may have made with younger players.

12. Houston Texans
2007 Prediction: 4-12
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 10-6, AFC Wild Card

The Texans finished 8-8 last season, even though Matt Scaub, Andre Johnson and Dunta Robinson weren't healthy for most of the season. Critics will say they can't succeed without a running game, but they didn't have much of one last year and still turned out a halfway decent season. And with Alex Gibbs and Gary Kubiak's offensive minds at work, even a slight improvement in the running game will go a long way towards getting those extra two wins that will vault them into the playoffs.

11. Dallas Cowboys
2007 Prediction: 7-9
2007 Record: 13-3
2008 Prediction: 10-6, NFC Wild Card

Last year, I missed the mark by six wins with two teams - Dallas and Baltimore. Ouch. The Cowboys aren't very deep and are counting on most of the same players they did last year, so it would seem like they should be just as good. But last year they had a cupcake schedule, with New England and Green Bay their only out of division games against teams that made the playoffs. They lost to New England and might have lost to Green Bay if Brett Favre hadn't gotten hurt in the game. Then they came out and laid an egg at home versus the Giants in the playoffs. All of that shouts "good on paper, can't win when it counts." And thus, they get only a Wild Card berth.

10. New Orleans Saints
2007 Prediction: 10-6
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 10-6, NFC South Champs

Someone has to win this division, might as well be New Orleans...

9. Baltimore Ravens
2007 Prediction: 11-5
2007 Record: 5-11
2008 Prediction: 10-6, AFC North Champs

This was the other team I really messed up last year. But I think 2007 was an aberration rather than the start of a trend. If Joe Flacco can stay on his feet behind a line tasked with replacing Jonathan Ogden, Baltimore should once again be a strong team.

8. Indianapolis Colts
2007 Prediction: 12-4
2007 Record: 13-3
2008 Prediction: 11-5, AFC Wild Card

This will be the year that the Colts start to slip just a little bit. There is no way to know how the new dome will play, and no way of knowing how well oft-injured receiver Marvin Harrison will play now that he's supposedly healthy again. Everyone will be proclaiming the downfall of the Colts after they start 1-3, but they will practically run the table from there on out to claim a playoff spot.

7. Minnesota Vikings
2007 Prediction: 7-9
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 11-5, NFC Wild Card

The Vikings defense is going to be scary. Tavaris Jackson is underrated, and Adrian Peterson is rated right where he should be, at the elite level. The Vikings will be quite good, quite.

6. Seattle Seahawks
2007 Prediction: 9-7
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 11-5, NFC West Champs

Like Tampa, they're always hanging around. Seattle might not be an elite team, but as long as they can keep running off five or six wins within their division, they are going to be playing in January.

5. San Diego Chargers
2007 Prediction: 11-5
2007 Record: 11-5
2008 Prediction: 11-5, AFC West Champs

This Shawne Merriman thing can't turn out well, can it? Even without him, they are blessed with the combination of 1) still having a lot of play makers and 2) a really bad division. They should still get to 11 wins before folding in the playoffs.

4. Philadelphia Eagles
2007 Prediction: 12-4
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 11-5, NFC East Champs

The Eagles are once again creepin' on a come up. The already decent secondary got a huge upgrade with Asante Samuel, and throwing the ball on Philly is going to be incredibly difficult this season. Since
the pass defense was the only unit that didn't rank in the top 10 in the NFL overall, Samuel may actually be the final piece of the puzzle in Philadelphia. That prowess will be on full display in Week 17, when a 10-5 Eagles team will defeat a 10-5 Cowboys team at home for the division crown.

3. Green Bay Packers
2007 Prediction: 11-5
2007 Record: 13-3
2008 Prediction: 11-5, NFC North Champs

I was one of the few people to see that Green Bay would be good in 2007, and they will still be good in 2008, Favre or no Favre. Though they will finish with the same record as Minnesota, Green Bay will win the division by virtue of winning both match ups with the Purple People Eaters. Green Bay may be the deepest team in football 1-53 - not that they don't have a lot of front-end play makers as well.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars
2007 Prediction: 9-7
2007 Record: 11-5
2008 Prediction: 13-3

Jacksonville is the one team that seems to pose the biggest threat to the Patriots this season. They played the Pats very tough in the playoffs last year, and David Garrard should be better in his second year as a starter. This Jags team will finally scale Mt. Indy, beating them both times in the regular season and once more in the playoffs for good measure. The second game will be especially dramatic, as a 10-4 Indianapolis team will visit a 12-2 Jacksonville team, needing to win to have any hope of winning the division. When the Jags win, they will be afforded the luxury of resting everyone in Week 17 at Baltimore, allowing Baltimore to punch their playoff ticket.

1. New England Patriots
2007 Prediction: 15-1
2007 Record: 16-0
2008 Prediction: 13-3

I don't think that this Patriots team is infallible by any means. Both the o-line and the secondary could use more depth, and Jerod Mayo is being asked to step in and be a starter right away. But the offense is the same dynamic machine it was last year, and Lawrence Maroney should be ready for a bigger role. I could see Jacksonville, Philadelphia or Green Bay stopping the Pats, but I learned a long time ago to not question Bill Belichick. His teams have advanced to at least the AFC Championship game in four of the last five years, and were a couple of bogus calls away from making it five for five. This is the team of the 2000's, and I expect that Belichick will find a way to lead this team back to the promised land. Plus, Brandon Meriweather is going to be a beast!

Playoffs:
2007: 5 of 12 teams picked correctly
2008:
AFC - 6 Houston beats 3 San Diego; 5 Indianapolis beats 4 Baltimore; 1 New England beats 6 Houston; 2 Jacksonville beats 5 Indianapolis; 1 New England beats 2 Jacksonville
NFC - 6 Dallas beats 3 Seattle; 5 Minnesota beats 4 New Orleans; 1 Green Bay beats 6 Dallas; 2 Philadelphia beats 5 Minnesota; 2 Philadelphia beats 1 Green Bay

Super Bowl XLIII - New England 35, Philadelphia 23
MVP - Lawrence Maroney

As I said before, it will be difficult to throw on Philadelphia this season. As such, Belichick will rely on the ground game, with Maroney leading the way. The Pats will pull ahead 35-13 early in the fourth before a late Philly rally comes up short.

Ok, it's late. Sorry if I rambled, but there are the picks, set in stone.