Wednesday, October 28, 2009

The New England Patriots New Foundation

The New England Patriots have quietly re-established the talent base on the defensive side of the football. During the past two seasons, the Pats have drafted 11 players on defense. Many have complained that the Pats have missed a lot of impact players in the draft. However, looking at the composition of the defense this year, that's not the case at all. Last year saw three solid contributors added to the squad. One of course is stud linebacker Jerod Mayo. Second is cornerback Jonathan Wilhite, taken in the fourth round. Wilhite has played in 22 of the 23 games since being drafted, and has been a solid contributor and at times a starter. And while that may not be good enough for some fans of the team, it is instructive to look at two other Belichick cornerbacks - Asante Samuel and Ellis Hobbs:

Rookie Year Stats
- Samuel, 2003: 16 G, 1 GS, 29 tackles, 5 assists, 2 INT, 9 passes defensed
- Hobbs, 2005: 16 G, 8 GS, 35 tackles, 9 assists, 3 INT, 12 passes defensed
- Wilhite, 2008: 16 G, 4 GS, 20 tackles, 4 assists, 1 INT, 2 passes defensed

Wilhite's stats aren't completely on the same level, but they're not incredibly different either. What's most important for me is that like Samuel and Hobbs, Wilhite played in all 16 games as a rookie, something that Belichick doesn't always allow. However, while they played a lot as rookies, Samuel and Hobbs didn't become 16-game starters until their third season. Right now, Wilhite is on track to become as solid of a contributor.

Third is a guy that wasn't actually taken in the draft, but Gary Guyton was part of the 2008 rookie class as an undrafted free agent. When Mayo went down earlier this season, Guyton stepped in at middle linebacker, and the team hardly skipped a beat. Now that Mayo is back, the Mayo-Guyton combo has solved the linebacker issues of last season.

The 2009 draft has borne just as much fruit. The Pats first pick in the draft, safety Patrick Chung, has been seeing more and more playing time as the weeks have progressed, and recently intercepted his first pass. Another second round pick, cornerback Darius Butler, is already a starter. Sixth round pick Myron Pryor has started subbing in on the defensive line, and has already forced his first fumble. This week, he was praised by Belichick in the Boston Globe. Since Belichick rarely praises anyone, take that as a strong endorsement.

The question was put to me to answer were the Patriots truly struggling early on or were they purposefully baptizing these new players so that they could wreck shop in the second half. My answer is neither, but the Pats should be back to their powerhouse ways after the bye week. In Vince Wilfork, Mayo and Meriweather the Pats have their new version of Seymour, Bruschi and Harrison - a trio that will dominate each area of the defense, but this trio could be even better, because of the differences between Seymour and Wilfork. The key to being a great defense in football (and in baseball actually) is to be great from the middle out. While he spent some time in the middle, Seymour was mostly an edge rusher, while Wilfork is planted firmly in the middle. In Ty Warren, Wilfork, Meriweather, Mayo and Guyton, the Pats have five players that they either drafted or signed as undrafted free agents starting on defense, with the potential to have as many as nine with Tully Bunta-Cain, Wilhite, Butler and James Sanders/Chung. That is simply unheard of in today's NFL. And with Jarvis Green, Pryor, 2005 undrafted free agent Mike Wright and Pierre Woods as backups, the Pats D is largely homegrown at this point. Take a look at the defensive snaps played this past week, courtesy of the incomparable Mike Reiss:

ILB Jerod Mayo -- 56 of 61........................2008 draft pick
S Brandon Meriweather -- 56 of 61............2007 draft pick
S Brandon McGowan -- 56 of 61................free agent
DE/OLB Derrick Burgess -- 53 of 61...........trade
CB Leigh Bodden -- 53 of 61.......................free agent
DE/OLB Tully Banta-Cain -- 50 of 61..........2003 draft pick
CB Darius Butler -- 49 of 61........................2009 draft pick
ILB Gary Guyton -- 47 of 61.......................2008 undrafted free agent
CB Jonathan Wilhite -- 47 of 61..................2008 draft pick
S Pat Chung -- 36 of 61................................2009 draft pick
DE Ty Warren -- 27 of 61............................2003 draft pick
DL Myron Pryor -- 26 of 61........................2009 draft pick
DT Vince Wilfork -- 24 of 61.......................2004 draft pick
DL Jarvis Green -- 23 of 61........................2002 draft pick
OLB Adalius Thomas -- 18 of 61.................free agent
ILB Junior Seau -- 16 of 61.........................free agent
DL Mike Wright -- 15 of 61.........................2005 undrafted free agent
S James Sanders -- 12 of 61........................2005 draft pick
S Bret Lockett -- 5 of 61..............................waivers
CB Shawn Springs -- 2 of 61........................free agent


In summary, 13 of 20 guys who played last week were homegrown by the Pats, and they played 70% of the plays.

Supplementing them are the hallmark of a Bill Belichick team - low cost free agents. Brandon McGowan will make less than $1.3 million in base salary the next two seasons for the Pats - yet he is leading the team in tackles and his emergence has given the Patriots perhaps the deepest safety corps in the league. Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden - each under $3 million in total salary - have played well, but are starting to be phased out for the younger crew. Derrick Burgess (who was actually acquire in a trade), Junior Seau and Rob Ninkovich provide depth for the front seven. The only real black mark on the record has been Adalius Thomas, who has not played poorly (he has averaged almost six sacks in his first two years despite missing seven games to injury last season), but has also not lived up to lofty expectations. But this is why the Pats generally eschew big ticket free agents. It is hard for big ticket players to come in and meet expectations. This is why Bill Belichick builds from within, and focuses on the forgotten players in free agency.

And though this shouldn't be a surprise to Pats watchers, somehow it sneaks up on them. Instead of focusing on the positives, we New Englander's are inherently negative and skeptical. How will we replace Asante Samuel? Why did we trade Ellis Hobbs? Why did we draft such a little guy in Terrence Wheatley? Why the hell did we spend so much on Thomas? Why are we signing geriatrics to play linebacker? The results show that the Pats are doing just fine. In the five other games Baltimore has played this year, they are averaging 29.6 points. They only got 21 off the Pats. The Pats held Atlanta to a season low 10 points, but otherwise the Falcons are averaging 26.8 points a game. Even in a loss, the Pats kept the Broncos under their season average in points. Ditto with the Jets, who have scored 24 or more in four games, but only mustered 16 against the Pats. Have the last two weeks padded the Pats defensive stats? Absolutely. But the Titans put up 31 points in Week 2, and the Bucs put up 20 points on three different occasions, so it's not like they're Oakland, who has scored 20 points only once this season, and has only 26 points in their last five games.

Looking back at last year, we can see how much the defense has changed in such a short time. In 2008, the Pats were 10th in total yards allowed and eighth in points allowed, but that was mitigated by two factors - their incredibly easy schedule and the fact that they had so many aging veterans on the roster. The foundation trio of Mayo, Meriweather and Wilfork led the team in tackles, but down the list you saw Mike Vrabel (age 33, 5th in tackles), Tedy Bruschi (35, 7th), Richard Seymour (29, 8th), Deltha O'Neal (31, 10th), Rodney Harrison (36, 11th) and Thomas (31, 12th). This year, all but Thomas are gone, and Thomas has been moved from starring role to part-time player. This season, the only player over 30 in the top 10 in tackles is Springs, and as mentioned, he is already being pushed out in favor of the young guns. Before the Tampa game, Reiss tweeted that Springs was serving as the eighth defensive back.


So maybe you are having a hard time matching numbers to names in the first part of this Patriots season. But at the end of the season, the Pats will have Pro Bowlers at each level of the D with the trilogy of Wilfork up front, Mayo in the middle and Meriweather in the back. By January, guys like Butler and Guyton will be household names in New England, and Ty Warren will still be holding it down.
The Pats have laid the foundation for their second dynasty with their home grown and built on the cheap defense. This time around, the Pats have spread the draft picks across 2008 and 2009, but the general theme is the same. It smells a lot like 2003 in Foxboro.

Monday, October 05, 2009

Pats Three Questions - Weeks 3/4

Before we get going, apologies for skipping last week. I spent most of the week at the ballpark watching the Rox sweep the Brewers. My bad. I'll skip the highlights and lowlights of Week 3, but I'll do the Week 3 question of the week.

Highlights - Firstly, executing in the red zone and getting touchdowns. I like me some touchdowns! Second, Proving that the Ravens offense isn't the tilt-a-whirl that people had been starting to believe that they were. Yes, they put up 103 points in the first three weeks of the season, but it was against Kansas City, San Diego and Cleveland, three of the worst defenses in the NFL. Yesterday, the Pats held them to 14 points. And while Ray Rice did break off a 50-yard run, the Pats otherwise held them to 4.1 yards a carry. And Flacco and his 5.6 yards per pass average wasn't much better, especially when compared to Brady's robust 8.1 yards per pass. In addition, the Pats forced the Ravens to do things they didn't want to do. They consistently pressured Flacco, sacking him twice and registering 10 QB hits. Another highlight was the secondary play. The Bears have to be kicking themselves for letting Brandon McGowan get away for nothing, and Brandon Meriweather turned in another Pro Bowl effort. And Gary Guyton continues to be a monster. More on him later. Injury-wise, it was good to see that big Vince Wilfork didn't miss any time leaving early last week, and it was even better to get Wes Welker back in the fold. Finally, it was good to knock two firsts off the board - Randy Moss' first touchdown catch, and the team's first interception: registered by Leigh Bodden.

Lowlights - The pass coverage from the linebackers. Pierre Woods, in particular, was burned badly on the touchdown to McGahee. In general however, the Patriots seemed to recognize that this has been a weakness, and tried to de-emphasize it by playing more defensive backs. There seemed to be several plays with Meriweather, McGowan and James Sanders in the game at the same time. Another weakness was the rushing attack in early downs. Once again, the Pats were able to convert the crucial third/fourth and shorts, but they were unable to get any consistent rhythm rushing the ball. The silver lining was that they stuck with the run, and therefore didn't exhaust Brady or show their hand heading into every play the way they had the first two weeks. Finally, as great as the forced fumble on the kickoff was, special teams was overall below average this week. Laurence Maroney dances far too much to be an effective kick returner, and Chris Hanson was awful. Two of his punts went for touch backs, and the one that landed "inside the 20" actually landed on the 16 and was a net yardage of 36 yards.

Week 3 Question of the Week: Can the Patriots develop a good running game? It sure looked promising after the Falcons game, but perhaps the Falcons just have a really poor run defense. Outside of the Falcons game, the Patriots "high" rusher has compiled 32, 46 and 25 yards. Outsider of the Atlanta game, the Pats are averaging 3.3 yards per rush. That is not the hallmark of a good running game. The Pats will certainly maintain enough of a ground threat to be a viable change of pace, but if they are going to develop a ground game that is an actual strength, they will need to get Maroney going again. The key to that will likely be playing him in the second half of games, something that has not happened for two weeks. When the Pats came out of halftime this week, they had a 10 point lead at 17-7. They had a serious chance to put the game out of reach when they got the ball to start the half. But after starting by alternating pass-run-pass-run, the Pats called six straight passes. The drive stalled at the Baltimore 45, and the Pats were forced to punt. These are the situations where the run would have taken over in years past. This year, the Pats seem to have very little confidence in the running game. I'm not willing to bury the running game yet, as Baltimore does have a very good run defense, but the Pats simply have to get Maroney going, as the other backs can only be effective in spurts.

Week 4 Question of the Week: What will the defense look when Jerod Mayo comes back? In a word, fierce. Gary Guyton has established himself as a viable middle linebacker, capable of playing every down, as he has the past two weeks, when the Pats defense has held their opponents to 10 and 14 points on defense. But he is still keeping the seat warm for Mayo. The main benefit the Pats will derive from getting Mayo back is that they will be able to rotate into any defense they want. Do you want to play 4-3 with one of Mayo/Guyton and the edge rusher combo of Bunta-Cain/Thomas/Burgess? Sure, let's do it. Do you want to play a 3-4, with Guyton and Mayo making a fearsome middle of the defense. Yes, please! And with McGowan stepping up as an able hybrid safety/linebacker, the Pats could run schemes where they play six defensive backs in Meriweather, McGowan, Sanders, Bodden, Shawn Springs, Cornerback X, Guyton and Mayo, and a three man rush, thereby blanketing the field in coverage and waiting for pressure to break through and force a sack or a bad throw. Without Mayo, the Pats D has been solid. Bodden and Springs have been great pickups, Darius Butler is showing promise in limited action, Jonathan Wilhite is holding his own, and Mike Wright is developing into the team's best pass rusher. And that is one more element Mayo's return will bring to the D - the pass rush. We saw this week that when the Pats blitzed they left themselves vulnerable to passes over the middle. Woods wasn't up to snuff. But with Mayo back, the Pats will have the freedom to blitz Guyton or Mayo from the middle, knowing that the other will be there to cover any tight ends or backs effectively over the middle. It's going to be a beautiful thing.