Monday, October 05, 2009

Pats Three Questions - Weeks 3/4

Before we get going, apologies for skipping last week. I spent most of the week at the ballpark watching the Rox sweep the Brewers. My bad. I'll skip the highlights and lowlights of Week 3, but I'll do the Week 3 question of the week.

Highlights - Firstly, executing in the red zone and getting touchdowns. I like me some touchdowns! Second, Proving that the Ravens offense isn't the tilt-a-whirl that people had been starting to believe that they were. Yes, they put up 103 points in the first three weeks of the season, but it was against Kansas City, San Diego and Cleveland, three of the worst defenses in the NFL. Yesterday, the Pats held them to 14 points. And while Ray Rice did break off a 50-yard run, the Pats otherwise held them to 4.1 yards a carry. And Flacco and his 5.6 yards per pass average wasn't much better, especially when compared to Brady's robust 8.1 yards per pass. In addition, the Pats forced the Ravens to do things they didn't want to do. They consistently pressured Flacco, sacking him twice and registering 10 QB hits. Another highlight was the secondary play. The Bears have to be kicking themselves for letting Brandon McGowan get away for nothing, and Brandon Meriweather turned in another Pro Bowl effort. And Gary Guyton continues to be a monster. More on him later. Injury-wise, it was good to see that big Vince Wilfork didn't miss any time leaving early last week, and it was even better to get Wes Welker back in the fold. Finally, it was good to knock two firsts off the board - Randy Moss' first touchdown catch, and the team's first interception: registered by Leigh Bodden.

Lowlights - The pass coverage from the linebackers. Pierre Woods, in particular, was burned badly on the touchdown to McGahee. In general however, the Patriots seemed to recognize that this has been a weakness, and tried to de-emphasize it by playing more defensive backs. There seemed to be several plays with Meriweather, McGowan and James Sanders in the game at the same time. Another weakness was the rushing attack in early downs. Once again, the Pats were able to convert the crucial third/fourth and shorts, but they were unable to get any consistent rhythm rushing the ball. The silver lining was that they stuck with the run, and therefore didn't exhaust Brady or show their hand heading into every play the way they had the first two weeks. Finally, as great as the forced fumble on the kickoff was, special teams was overall below average this week. Laurence Maroney dances far too much to be an effective kick returner, and Chris Hanson was awful. Two of his punts went for touch backs, and the one that landed "inside the 20" actually landed on the 16 and was a net yardage of 36 yards.

Week 3 Question of the Week: Can the Patriots develop a good running game? It sure looked promising after the Falcons game, but perhaps the Falcons just have a really poor run defense. Outside of the Falcons game, the Patriots "high" rusher has compiled 32, 46 and 25 yards. Outsider of the Atlanta game, the Pats are averaging 3.3 yards per rush. That is not the hallmark of a good running game. The Pats will certainly maintain enough of a ground threat to be a viable change of pace, but if they are going to develop a ground game that is an actual strength, they will need to get Maroney going again. The key to that will likely be playing him in the second half of games, something that has not happened for two weeks. When the Pats came out of halftime this week, they had a 10 point lead at 17-7. They had a serious chance to put the game out of reach when they got the ball to start the half. But after starting by alternating pass-run-pass-run, the Pats called six straight passes. The drive stalled at the Baltimore 45, and the Pats were forced to punt. These are the situations where the run would have taken over in years past. This year, the Pats seem to have very little confidence in the running game. I'm not willing to bury the running game yet, as Baltimore does have a very good run defense, but the Pats simply have to get Maroney going, as the other backs can only be effective in spurts.

Week 4 Question of the Week: What will the defense look when Jerod Mayo comes back? In a word, fierce. Gary Guyton has established himself as a viable middle linebacker, capable of playing every down, as he has the past two weeks, when the Pats defense has held their opponents to 10 and 14 points on defense. But he is still keeping the seat warm for Mayo. The main benefit the Pats will derive from getting Mayo back is that they will be able to rotate into any defense they want. Do you want to play 4-3 with one of Mayo/Guyton and the edge rusher combo of Bunta-Cain/Thomas/Burgess? Sure, let's do it. Do you want to play a 3-4, with Guyton and Mayo making a fearsome middle of the defense. Yes, please! And with McGowan stepping up as an able hybrid safety/linebacker, the Pats could run schemes where they play six defensive backs in Meriweather, McGowan, Sanders, Bodden, Shawn Springs, Cornerback X, Guyton and Mayo, and a three man rush, thereby blanketing the field in coverage and waiting for pressure to break through and force a sack or a bad throw. Without Mayo, the Pats D has been solid. Bodden and Springs have been great pickups, Darius Butler is showing promise in limited action, Jonathan Wilhite is holding his own, and Mike Wright is developing into the team's best pass rusher. And that is one more element Mayo's return will bring to the D - the pass rush. We saw this week that when the Pats blitzed they left themselves vulnerable to passes over the middle. Woods wasn't up to snuff. But with Mayo back, the Pats will have the freedom to blitz Guyton or Mayo from the middle, knowing that the other will be there to cover any tight ends or backs effectively over the middle. It's going to be a beautiful thing.

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