AFC East Update

In tiebreakers for division games, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head. The Pats split their head to head with the Jets and Dolphins, and the Jets have the tiebreaker over the Dolphins right now, but the Jets and Dolphins still have to play each other once more.

The next tiebreaker is division games. Right now, the Jets are 3-1 with two games left (BUF and MIA) and the Pats and Dolphins are 3-2 with one game left.

Next up are common games between opponents. Here is how that breaks down:

MIA vs. NYJ common opp - 8-2, w/ 2 gms left (SF, @kc)
MIA vs. NE common opp - 7-2, w/ all 3 gms left
NE vs. MIA common opp - 7-2, w/ all 3 gms left
NE vs. NYJ common opp - 7-2, w/ all 3 gms left
NYJ vs. NE common opp - 5-4, w/ all 3 gms left
NYJ vs. MIA common opp - 5-5, w/ 2 gms left (BUF, @sea)

In other words, if the jets lose either of their two remaining division games, they are going to be in trouble. If the patriots don't win out, they are going to be in trouble. But, if the patriots win out, they will do no worse than a tie for the division lead, and then it will be decided by the tiebreakers above. They will do no worse than that tie because the Jets and Dolphins are guaranteed one loss between the two of them in that final game of the regular season.

Now you know - and knowing is half the battle.

Couch Notes

Notes while trying to pass the time on a boring Sunday night:

- What is the point of King of the Hill? I know it was canceled, but does Fox really need to show the final episodes? Who is still watching this show?

- The rate at which we consume media these days is frightening.

- I'm looking forward to my fourth annual end of the year "best of the year" CD's. I need to pick up some more CD's to round it out and represent recent releases, but this year's could be the best yet.

- The Patriots can still make the playoffs. But it's not looking good.

- The Celtics are ready to repeat. And while Paul Pierce is still the C's best player, I think it's an open question now as to who the second best player is. That's not a knock on Kevin Garnett, but rather a nod to how well Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo have played so far. Tony Allen has played remarkably well in the sixth man role, subbing for Rondo, Ray, or Pierce, depending on who needs a spell.

- I think the only people who don't know that college football needs a playoff are the six commissioners from the six "BCS" conferences.

- What would I do without Slash Film, Baseball-Reference and Cot's Contracts?

- I wasn't surprised to find out that the "deals" during Black Friday were pretty much the most classic definition of the bait-n-switch. Unreal.

- Facebook is addictive.

- Sometimes I predict really stupid things, like when I predicted that Washington would notch the seven seed in the playoffs this year, or that the Giants would only go 8-8 this year. But for every stinker, I get one nugget in there, like predicting the Hawks to emerge and grab the 5 seed this year...ok, it's not a one to one ratio, but I'm not wrong all the time!

- Do I really have to wait another two months for Lost to come back? Come on...

- 24: Redemption did little to redeem 24's crappy sixth season, although the 7th season does seem to have a lot of good story lines. We'll see I guess.

- Why is there still no great hip-hop blog? Someone help me out here if you have any suggestions.

- I've got nothing.

NFL 2008

Let's just get right to it.

32. Kansas City Chiefs
2007 Prediction: 4-12
2007 Record: 4-12
2008 Prediction: 2-14

Kansas City is going to get worse before they get better, but at least they have a plan and a man that knows a little something about rebuilding in Herm Edwards.

31. Atlanta Falcons
2007 Prediction: 3-13
2007 Record: 4-12
2008 Prediction: 3-13

Matt Ryan sucks, as do most people that come out of BC. Unlike KC, Atlanta does not seem to have any real plan, unless the plan is "draft an overrated BC 'star' and watch him suck for six years."

30. Miami Dolphins
2007 Prediction: 3-13
2007 Record: 1-15
2008 Prediction: 4-12

Getting Chad Pennington will help the Dolphins get out to a 3-1 start and briefly restore respectability before watching it fall apart at the seams. Bill Parcells teams are always better in year two though, so this is just the prelude.

29. Chicago Bears
2007 Prediction: 11-5
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 5-11

I won't be making the mistake of overrating the Bears defense a second year in a row. No matter how good it is, the Bears have no quarterback, no running backs and no wide receivers of note. 29th may be high...

28. Cincinnati Bengals
2007 Prediction: 10-6
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 5-11

This team self destructed last year as well. Things aren't looking much better, and with the Ravens rebounding the Bengals will slip even further in the division standings.

27. San Francisco 49ers
2007 Prediction: 10-6
2007 Record: 5-11
2008 Prediction: 5-11

I bought into the hype last season, but now there is little reason for hope. Running backs don't do very well in Mike Martz's system, yet the Niners only offensive weapon is their running back, Frank Gore. Since Martz has proven to be one of the most stubborn coaches in football, this probably won't end well in San Fran.

26. Arizona Cardinals
2007 Prediction: 6-10
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 5-11

Had Anquan Boldin not demanded a trade, and had Matt Leinart stepped up and won the QB job, I might be more optimistic. But Boldin did demand a trade and Leinart choked off training camp. If the injury prone players on their defense can stay on the field, they have a chance to beat this projection, but I'm not holding my breath.

25. Denver Broncos
2007 Prediction: 9-7
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 6-10

"Teflon" Mike Shanahan failed to accept any responsibility once again, what a shock! This team has three good players - Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Champ Bailey. Cutler will need to make those strides everyone in Denver has been talking about, and Ryan Clady and Tony Scheffler will have to step up big time just to get to six wins.

24. Cleveland Browns
2007 Prediction: 5-11
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 6-10

Cleveland had one of the easiest schedules last year and took advantage. Everything went right and they still didn't make the playoffs. In the offseason, they traded away their best defensive back, and they weren't strong at the position in the first place. In a related story, their out of division opponents include quarterbacks like Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Jason Campbell, David Garrard, Matt Schaub, Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb. Oh, and Cincy and Pittsburgh have pretty good quarterbacks too. This won't end well for the Browns.

23. Tennessee Titans
2007 Prediction: 8-8
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 6-10

I don't like this prediction very much. I actually think Tennessee is better than my prediction, but I also am a big believer in Houston this season, and it's very difficult for all four teams in one division to be good. This is a very hard-luck six win season.

22. Washington Redskins
2007 Prediction: 8-8
2007 Record: 9-7
2008 Prediction: 6-10

Like the Bears, the Redskins have very little offensive firepower. I keep hearing that Jason Campbell is going to be good, but until he has good receivers it's going to be hard to tell. I mean, James Thrash, seriously? Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts are still good, but defenses can stack seven to eight in the box on every play and feel confident that the Redskins aerial attack won't beat them consistently.

21. Detroit Lions
2007 Prediction: 4-12
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 6-10

If Calvin Johnson emerges as expected, the Lions should at least be very entertaining, as he and Roy Williams will be targeted all year. When you sign a waived and washed up Rudi Johnson with a week to go in the season, it's probably not a good sign for your ground game. And with mediocre defenders surrounding play makers Ernie Sims and Leigh Bodden, the defense isn't anything to write home about either.

20. St. Louis Rams
2007 Prediction: 5-11
2007 Record: 3-13
2008 Prediction: 7-9

If the Rams can stay out of the trainers room and Chris Long can make an immediate impact, the Rams should be much improved from last year. They won't be good per se, but they will be better. And that's something.

19. Oakland Raiders
2007 Prediction: 6-10
2007 Record: 4-12
2008 Prediction: 7-9

I am expecting big things from the JaMarcus Russell-Darren McFadden back field. The Raiders D is already solid, so if these two can produce better results then they will improve enough to be in position for a playoff spot in 2009.

18. Buffalo Bills
2007 Prediction: 6-10
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 8-8

The Bills keep getting better a little bit at a time. Trent Edwards should make more strides this year, and Marshawn Lynch already has. The defense got big additions with Kawika Mitchell and Marcus Stroud, and that will help them become a respectable unit.

17. Carolina Panthers
2007 Prediction: 9-7
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 8-8

Jake Delhomme may be pain free, but Steve Smith will miss a few games and they will be working in a rookie running back into the mix. They will be mediocre, which will almost be good enough in the NFC South.

16. New York Giants
2007 Prediction: 5-11
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 8-8

Like so many, I completely whiffed on my Giants prediction last season. That doesn't mean I will be fooled into thinking that they are now all powerful or something along those lines. They will be good enough to compete for a playoff spot, but will ultimately fall short. It would be a different story if they had Osi...

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2007 Prediction: 7-9
2007 Record: 9-7
2008 Prediction: 9-7

This team has got alligator blood, which is fitting given their geography. But what they have in toughness and fundamentals, they lack in star power. They will just miss the playoffs.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers
2007 Prediction: 10-6
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 9-7

Many people think it will be business as usual in the Steel City, but the weakened offensive line is troublesome. Second, they did very little to upgrade the team's starters. And third, their schedule is killer. Out of division opponents include Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, San Diego, New England and Dallas. That's a tough slate for any team to overcome, and Pittsburgh won't be up to the challenge this year.

13. New York Jets
2007 Prediction: 8-8
2007 Record: 4-12
2008 Prediction: 9-7

The Jets will be better. But if history has taught us anything, it's that you can't throw money at a problem and expect everything to be just jolly good fun. The Jets will be better because of their free agent imports, but they won't be good enough to make the playoffs. And playing those free agents will set back the progress they may have made with younger players.

12. Houston Texans
2007 Prediction: 4-12
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 10-6, AFC Wild Card

The Texans finished 8-8 last season, even though Matt Scaub, Andre Johnson and Dunta Robinson weren't healthy for most of the season. Critics will say they can't succeed without a running game, but they didn't have much of one last year and still turned out a halfway decent season. And with Alex Gibbs and Gary Kubiak's offensive minds at work, even a slight improvement in the running game will go a long way towards getting those extra two wins that will vault them into the playoffs.

11. Dallas Cowboys
2007 Prediction: 7-9
2007 Record: 13-3
2008 Prediction: 10-6, NFC Wild Card

Last year, I missed the mark by six wins with two teams - Dallas and Baltimore. Ouch. The Cowboys aren't very deep and are counting on most of the same players they did last year, so it would seem like they should be just as good. But last year they had a cupcake schedule, with New England and Green Bay their only out of division games against teams that made the playoffs. They lost to New England and might have lost to Green Bay if Brett Favre hadn't gotten hurt in the game. Then they came out and laid an egg at home versus the Giants in the playoffs. All of that shouts "good on paper, can't win when it counts." And thus, they get only a Wild Card berth.

10. New Orleans Saints
2007 Prediction: 10-6
2007 Record: 7-9
2008 Prediction: 10-6, NFC South Champs

Someone has to win this division, might as well be New Orleans...

9. Baltimore Ravens
2007 Prediction: 11-5
2007 Record: 5-11
2008 Prediction: 10-6, AFC North Champs

This was the other team I really messed up last year. But I think 2007 was an aberration rather than the start of a trend. If Joe Flacco can stay on his feet behind a line tasked with replacing Jonathan Ogden, Baltimore should once again be a strong team.

8. Indianapolis Colts
2007 Prediction: 12-4
2007 Record: 13-3
2008 Prediction: 11-5, AFC Wild Card

This will be the year that the Colts start to slip just a little bit. There is no way to know how the new dome will play, and no way of knowing how well oft-injured receiver Marvin Harrison will play now that he's supposedly healthy again. Everyone will be proclaiming the downfall of the Colts after they start 1-3, but they will practically run the table from there on out to claim a playoff spot.

7. Minnesota Vikings
2007 Prediction: 7-9
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 11-5, NFC Wild Card

The Vikings defense is going to be scary. Tavaris Jackson is underrated, and Adrian Peterson is rated right where he should be, at the elite level. The Vikings will be quite good, quite.

6. Seattle Seahawks
2007 Prediction: 9-7
2007 Record: 10-6
2008 Prediction: 11-5, NFC West Champs

Like Tampa, they're always hanging around. Seattle might not be an elite team, but as long as they can keep running off five or six wins within their division, they are going to be playing in January.

5. San Diego Chargers
2007 Prediction: 11-5
2007 Record: 11-5
2008 Prediction: 11-5, AFC West Champs

This Shawne Merriman thing can't turn out well, can it? Even without him, they are blessed with the combination of 1) still having a lot of play makers and 2) a really bad division. They should still get to 11 wins before folding in the playoffs.

4. Philadelphia Eagles
2007 Prediction: 12-4
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 11-5, NFC East Champs

The Eagles are once again creepin' on a come up. The already decent secondary got a huge upgrade with Asante Samuel, and throwing the ball on Philly is going to be incredibly difficult this season. Since
the pass defense was the only unit that didn't rank in the top 10 in the NFL overall, Samuel may actually be the final piece of the puzzle in Philadelphia. That prowess will be on full display in Week 17, when a 10-5 Eagles team will defeat a 10-5 Cowboys team at home for the division crown.

3. Green Bay Packers
2007 Prediction: 11-5
2007 Record: 13-3
2008 Prediction: 11-5, NFC North Champs

I was one of the few people to see that Green Bay would be good in 2007, and they will still be good in 2008, Favre or no Favre. Though they will finish with the same record as Minnesota, Green Bay will win the division by virtue of winning both match ups with the Purple People Eaters. Green Bay may be the deepest team in football 1-53 - not that they don't have a lot of front-end play makers as well.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars
2007 Prediction: 9-7
2007 Record: 11-5
2008 Prediction: 13-3

Jacksonville is the one team that seems to pose the biggest threat to the Patriots this season. They played the Pats very tough in the playoffs last year, and David Garrard should be better in his second year as a starter. This Jags team will finally scale Mt. Indy, beating them both times in the regular season and once more in the playoffs for good measure. The second game will be especially dramatic, as a 10-4 Indianapolis team will visit a 12-2 Jacksonville team, needing to win to have any hope of winning the division. When the Jags win, they will be afforded the luxury of resting everyone in Week 17 at Baltimore, allowing Baltimore to punch their playoff ticket.

1. New England Patriots
2007 Prediction: 15-1
2007 Record: 16-0
2008 Prediction: 13-3

I don't think that this Patriots team is infallible by any means. Both the o-line and the secondary could use more depth, and Jerod Mayo is being asked to step in and be a starter right away. But the offense is the same dynamic machine it was last year, and Lawrence Maroney should be ready for a bigger role. I could see Jacksonville, Philadelphia or Green Bay stopping the Pats, but I learned a long time ago to not question Bill Belichick. His teams have advanced to at least the AFC Championship game in four of the last five years, and were a couple of bogus calls away from making it five for five. This is the team of the 2000's, and I expect that Belichick will find a way to lead this team back to the promised land. Plus, Brandon Meriweather is going to be a beast!

Playoffs:
2007: 5 of 12 teams picked correctly
2008:
AFC - 6 Houston beats 3 San Diego; 5 Indianapolis beats 4 Baltimore; 1 New England beats 6 Houston; 2 Jacksonville beats 5 Indianapolis; 1 New England beats 2 Jacksonville
NFC - 6 Dallas beats 3 Seattle; 5 Minnesota beats 4 New Orleans; 1 Green Bay beats 6 Dallas; 2 Philadelphia beats 5 Minnesota; 2 Philadelphia beats 1 Green Bay

Super Bowl XLIII - New England 35, Philadelphia 23
MVP - Lawrence Maroney

As I said before, it will be difficult to throw on Philadelphia this season. As such, Belichick will rely on the ground game, with Maroney leading the way. The Pats will pull ahead 35-13 early in the fourth before a late Philly rally comes up short.

Ok, it's late. Sorry if I rambled, but there are the picks, set in stone.

My Top 100 Movies, Ver. 2.0

About a year ago, I put together my first top 100 movies list. If you'd like to take a look, here's the link. As I said then, and will say now, these aren't what I think are the best 100 movies of all-time, but rather the movies that I enjoy the most.

Here are some of the movies that I was considering for Ver. 2.0 that ultimately didn't make the cut. In alphabetical order: 300, Air Force One, Armageddon, Baby Mama, Beverly Hills Cop 2, Big Daddy, Chinatown, Cloverfield, The Devil Wears Prada, Finding Nemo, The French Connection, Hellboy, Jurassic Park, Lethal Weapon, My Cousin Vinny, No Country For Old Men, Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl, Shooter, Shrek, Speed, Taxi Driver, The Mummy, Traffic and Training Day.

Movies like Pineapple Express, Tropic Thunder, Eagle Eye and the Clone Wars movie may make the cut next year, but I have yet to see them!

Here are the movies that dropped out of my Top 100:
- Sin City (100)
- The Boondock Saints (99)
- The Chronicles of Riddick (94)
- Van Wilder (92)
- A Few Good Men (91)
- Road Trip (90)
- Mystery, Alaska (89)
- Swordfish (87)
- Backdraft (86)
- The 40-Year Old Virgin (83)
- Superman Returns (82)
- Con Air (79)
- Indiana Jones: Temple of Doom (77)
- Family Guy, Stewie Griffin: The Untold Story (61)
- Spider-Man (32)

A couple of notes. First, my system isn't perfect, which is why the movies counting back from 100 weren't the only ones eliminated. I took the Family Guy movie out because it wasn't a theatrical release, and it just felt wrong being there. Spider-Man suffered from its comparison to contemporary peers. Watching it again now, it just doesn't stack up.

Here are their replacements:
99. Superbad - Just a hilarious coming of age comedy with two guys who are a riot. Plus a McLovin.
96. Indiana Jones: Raiders of the Lost Ark - My generation grew up more with Temple of Doom as their first Indiana, but when you go back and watch this one it blows Temple of Doom away. Sorry, Short-Round!
93. The Burbs - An oversight. There are a few movies in this new list that I watched a ton on VHS or cable, and as a result now don't own on DVD. The Burbs is one of them.
90. Mallrats - This is another. My favorite Kevin Smith movie.
89. Ferris Bueller's Day Off - This is yet another. My sister and I taped this off of Showtime or Cinemax during a free preview weekend when we were kids, and at the time it was our only non-Disney movie in the house. As such, we must have watched it 100 times. Easily.
88. Forgetting Sarah Marshall - Never before has a man's penis been so funny. This movie was a riot.
73. Monsters, Inc. - Though we own this one on DVD, it somehow missed my radar the first time around.
72. Ratatouille - I do not believe I had watched this one when I first made my rankings, but it broke the record for "most times watching a Netflix movie before sending it back." I think I watched it eight or nine times.
70. Thank You For Smoking - This movie gets funnier every time I watch it. A lot of people are now beginning to know who Aaron Eckhart is, thanks to his incredible performance in The Dark Knight. But I was hooked on him after his performance in this movie. "That's not an argument, it's a negotiation."
65. Godfather II - Sometimes I get carried away. Most people like Godfather II better than the original. I do not, and have the original at 36th on my list. But that doesn't mean it wasn't pure genius. For some reason, I talked myself into leaving it off my original list. As Bill Simmons would say, the lesson, as always, is that I'm an idiot.
53. Super Troopers - The Broken Lizard guys will likely never come close to topping this movie. Club Dread was decent, as was Beerfest. But Super Troopers will be their gold standard. I don't know if you would necessarily call it a "stoner" comedy, but it comes close. Either way, it's hilarious. Who wants a mustache ride?
46. Toy Story - For me, the defining "watched too much on VHS, don't own on DVD, so it slipped my mind" movie. This was the movie that started it all for Pixar at the box office, and it remains a classic. I didn't remember how much I enjoyed the movie until we went on the new Toy Story ride at DisneyWorld this summer.
34. Wall-E - It may be a bit presumptious of me to have this ranked ahead of Toy Story. But, like many movies this year, Wall-E had a ton of hype, and delivered on that hype big-time. I find it amusing that some people want to make it out to have a political bent. When I hear stuff like that, all I can do is sigh and shake my head. Sometimes people make too much out of things, and I think this is one of those cases. Even if the message in the movie was done so intentionally with the purpose of fanning the political flames, it doesn't matter. It's an awesome movie either way.
26. Iron Man - This movie was everything a comic book movie can and should be. I was sure that nothing could beat it as a comic book movie (V for Vendetta doesn't count to me, since I didn't know it was a comic book/graphic novel when I saw it) until...
8. The Dark Knight - This movie changed a lot for me. It's easily the best comic book movie ever made, and I can't ever see anything topping it. It's also the best, or second best sequel ever made, depending on whether or not you view The Empire Strikes Back as a sequel. It forced me to drastically change my rankings. I had to bump movies out of the top ten. The Dark Knight illuminated a lot of what was missing in Batman Begins, and as a result I bumped that movie further down the list. Heath Ledger didn't just play The Joker, he WAS The Joker. Everyone in the cast was fantastic. Even when they screwed with basic Batman doctrine, like when they reinvented how Harvey Dent became Two-Face, they pulled it off brilliantly. We've already seen it in the theater twice, and if it still is in theaters come September (after we watch some other summer movies) then we'll probably see it a third time. That a comic book movie - one that had seen its star dwindle with the proliferation of comic books in the late '90's and 2000's - has the chance to knock off Titanic for biggest box office gross ever, a movie which was centered around one of the biggest historical moments of the 20th century, is absolutely astonishing.

Here is the list in full. Be advised that most movies that remained from Ver 1.0 to Ver. 2.0 - outside of my top five - have been switched around in order. This will likely be a running theme, as I don't think my top 100 will ever reach a point when it is set in stone forever. Not only are there thousands of movies in my future, but there are plenty in my past as well. Whenever our new releases on Netflix dry up, I have taken to queuing up older movies. Recently, I've watched movies like Chinatown, Taxi Driver, The French Connection, Once Upon A Time in America and The Apartment. There are several older movies like that in the queue now.

Here they are, with the Version 1.0 ranking in parentheses.

100. Miracle (95)
99. Superbad (-)
98. Knocked Up (96)
97. The Girl Next Door (74)
96. Indiana Jones: Raiders of the Lost Ark (-)
95. Lock, Stock & Two Smoking Barrels (93)
94. Harold & Kumar Go To White Castle (73)
93. The Burbs (-)
92. Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Extended Version (85)
91. Slap Shot (84)
90. Mallrats (-)
89. Ferris Bueller's Day Off (-)
88. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (-)
87. Blues Brothers (97)
86. Star Wars, Episode III: Return of the Sith (81)
85. The Bourne Supremacy (88)
84. The Silence of the Lambs (80)
83. Ocean's Eleven (new) (78)
82. Lethal Weapon IV (76)
81. 48 Hours (75)
80. Saving Silverman (68)
79. Indiana Jones: The Last Crusade (72)
78. XXX (71)
77. Mean Girls (70)
76. Die Hard With a Vengeance (69)
75. Running Scared (old) (56)
74. National Treasure (55)
73. Monsters, Inc. (-)
72. Ratatouille (-)
71. Rounders (64)
70. Thank You For Smoking (-)
69. Wedding Crashers (58)
68. Aladdin (98)
67. Spider-Man 2 (67)
66. Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (66)
65. Godfather II (-)
64. Rocky II (63)
63. Rocky (62)
62. Back to the Future 2 (65)
61. Chronicles of Riddick: Pitch Black (60)
60. Bad Boys (59)
59. Lethal Weapon II (57)
58. Star Wars, Episode II: Attack of the Clones (54)
57. The Bourne Identity (53)
56. Menace II Society (52)
55. Dodgeball: A TRUE Underdog Story (48)
54. i Robot (39)
53. Super Troopers (-)
52. The Departed (51)
51. Back to the Future (50)
50. Total Recall (49)
49. The Fugitive (47)
48. Coming To America (46)
47. Independence Day (44)
46. Toy Story (-)
45. Beverly Hills Cop (43)
44. Goldeneye (42)
43. The Rock (23)
42. Stripes (40)
41. Enemy of the State (38)
40. The Program (37)
39. True Lies (36)
38. Spaceballs (35)
37. The Incredibles (41)
36. The Godfather (34)
35. Transformers: The Movie (22)
34. Wall-E (-)
33. Happy Gilmore (33)
32. Live Free or Die Hard (27)
31. Batman Begins (14)
30. Ghostbusters (31)
29. Trading Places (30)
28. The Terminator (29)
27. Top Gun (26)
26. Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy (25)
25. Iron Man (-)
24. Goodfellas (24)
23. The Princess Bride (28)
22. Billy Madison (45)
21. Casino (18)
20. V for Vendetta (21)
19. Die Hard (20)
18. Animal House (19)
17. Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, Extended Version (16)
16. Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring, Extended Version (15)
15. Office Space (13)
14. The Simpsons Movie (6)
13. Scarface (11)
12. Terminator 2: Judgment Day (17)
11. Who Framed Roger Rabbit? (12)
10. Major League (10)
9. Friday (9)
8. The Dark Knight (-)
7. Gladiator (8)
6. Old School (7)
5. The Shawshank Redemption (5)
4. Braveheart (4)
3. Star Wars, Episode VI: Return of the Jedi (3)
2. Star Wars, Episode V: The Empire Strikes Back (2)
1. Star Wars, Episode IV: A New Hope (1)

Come back next year for Version 3.0!

NL All-Star Prediction Results

You National League All-Star team:

Pos	Player, Tm	Did I Have Him?
C	Geovany Soto, CHC	Yes
1B	Lance Berkman, HOU	Yes
2B	Chase Utley, PHI	Yes
SS	Hanley Ramirez, FLA	Yes
3B	Chipper Jones, ATL	Yes
OF	Ryan Braun, MIL	Yes
OF	Kosuke Fukudome, CHC	Yes
OF	Alfonso Soriano, CHC	Yes
P	Aaron Cook, COL	Yes
P	Ryan Dempster, CHC	No
P	Brad Lidge, PHI	Yes
P	Tim Lincecum, SF	Yes
P	Ben Sheets, MIL	Yes
P	Edinson Volquez, CIN	Yes
P	Brandon Webb, ARI	Yes
P	Brian Wilson, SF	No
P	Kerry Wood, CHC	Yes
C	Russell Martin, LA	No
1B	Adrian Gonzalez, SD	Yes
2B	Dan Uggla, FLA	Yes
3B	Aramis Ramirez, CHC	No
SS	Miguel Tejada, HOU	No
OF	Matt Holliday, COL	Yes
OF	Ryan Ludwick, STL	No
OF	Nate McLouth, PIT	Yes
P	Dan Haren, ARI	Yes
P	Billy Wagner, NYM	Yes
P	Carlos Zambrano, CHC	No
1B	Brian McCann, ATL	Yes
1B	Albert Pujols, STL	Yes
SS	Cristian Guzman, WAS	No

So again, I got 23 of the players, though with just 31, my percentage bumps up to 74% correct. Most of the ones I missed are not surprises. I would only count Wilson and Guzman as surprises, and mild ones at that. I didn't see Wilson as having a high enough profile, and as a result dismissed him completely. But he has been one of the best relievers in baseball by any metric though, so credit the players with picking him. As in the AL though, there is one simply ridiculous pick - Miguel Tejada. Hanley Ramirez was clearly the best player at the position, but of NL shortstops with 100 plate appearances, Tejada clocks in at eighth in VORP, behind Guzman, but also behind Jose Reyes, Rafael Furcal (he doesn't count because he's injured), J.J. Hardy, Jerry Hairston (!) and Jimmy Rollins. Rollins did miss some time due to injury, so I can see how he would be left out. And Tejada is leading NL shortstops in RBI, but I think Reyes would have been a far superior selection. Looking at the two, we see that Reyes has a better average, on-base and slugging percentage. Reyes has more doubles, more triples and more steals. Tejada's edge amounts to one homer and six RBI. Again though, it is instructive to look at how the players started. Tejada was on fire in April and Reyes started slow. Unfortunately, the players were fooled by this and went with Tejada instead of the more deserving Reyes.

But, there have been years when several selections were preposterous. That there are only one or two per team shows that the process does work fairly well within the constraints that MLB dictates for the selection process. Let's see how the voting broke out by electoral group:

Fans: the eight starters
Players: Martin, Gonzalez, Uggla, A Ramirez, Tejada, Holliday, McLouth, Ludwick, Dempster, Webb, Volquez, Lincecum, Sheets, Wood, Lidge and Wilson
Hurdle: Guzman, McCann, Pujols, Zambrano, Cook, Haren, Wagner

I'm not exactly clear as to why Hurdle got to pick seven guys to Francona's five. I understand that he gets one more player due to the fans not voting for a NL designated hitter. Perhaps this was inaccurately reported at first blush, and one of the seven reportedly selected by Hurdle was actually a players selection? We'll see...

In any event, Clint had only two teams to fill out his roster - Washington and New York. He picked one reliever and one shortstop - Guzman and Wagner. If he had picked Jon Rauch and Reyes nobody would have given it a second thought, he really couldn't go wrong there. And he acquitted himself very well with his other selections, taking guys that all obviously deserve to be there. The other decision that Hurdle has to make is who his starting DH will be. I would peg the candidates as Pujols, Holliday and Gonzalez, all of whom would be good choices.

The Final Vote has the following five guys:

- David Wright
- Pat Burrell
- Corey Hart
- Carlos Lee
- Aaron Rowand

I had both Wright and Lee on my actual team - they essentially swapped out with Zambrano and Ludwick, who I had in my Final Vote instead of being on the actual team. I did however, correctly predict that Burrell would be a Final Vote candidate. Consistently overlooked by his peers, Burrell has been a monster this year - actually for the past 18 months. As in the AL, I would expect the player from the biggest market - Wright - to take home this honor. That would bump me up to 24 of 32. Also, I believe Clint Hurdle will have to replace Soriano due to injury, which will likely be one of the four outfielders that doesn't win the Final Vote.

AL All-Star Prediction Results

So, let's see how I did, shall we? First, the American League rosters:

Pos	Player, Tm	Did I Have Him?
C	Joe Mauer, MIN	Yes
1B	Kevin Youkilis, BOS	Yes
2B	Dustin Pedroia, BOS	Yes
SS	Derek Jeter, NYY	Yes
3B	Alex Rodriguez, NYY	Yes
OF	Josh Hamilton, TEX	Yes
OF	Manny Ramirez, BOS	Yes
OF	Ichiro Suzuki, SEA	Yes
DH	David Ortiz, BOSº	Yes
P	Justin Duchscherer, OAK	Yes
P	Roy Halladay, TOR	Yes
P	Scott Kazmir, TB	No
P	Cliff Lee, CLE	Yes
P	Joe Nathan, MIN	No
P	Jonathan Papelbon, BOS	Yes
P	Mariano Rivera, NYY	Yes
P	Francisco Rodriguez, LAA	Yes
P	Ervin Santana, LAA	No
P	Joe Saunders, LAA	Yes
P	George Sherrill, BAL	Yes
P	Joakim Soria, KC	Yes
C	Dioner Navarro, TB	No
C	Jason Varitek, BOS	No
1B	Justin Morneau, MIN	Yes
2B	Ian Kinsler, TEX	Yes
SS	Michael Young, TEX	Yes
3B	Joe Crede, CWS	No
3B	Carlos Guillen, DET	No
OF	J.D. Drew, BOS	No
OF	Carlos Quentin, CWS	No
OF	Grady Sizemore, CLE	Yes
DH	Milton Bradley, TEX	Yes

So, I had 23 of 32, or 72% of the players picked correctly. Of the nine I missed, Kazmir, Nathan, Santana, Drew and Quentin are not surprises. I will say that I am surprised to see Crede make it over Evan Longoria, and a little surprised to see Carlos Guillen make it over Magglio Ordonez. I am less surprised about Guillen because Guillen was on the team last year. Then there are the backup catchers. I don't see too much of an issue with Navarro - he and Pierzynski had similar stats. But Jason Varitek's selection is a joke. For one, Varitek has not been an All-Star the past two years, so there was no "he was there last year rationale." In looking at the Baseball Prospectus VORP chart for AL catchers, you can see that 21 catchers have seen at least 100 plate appearances in the AL this year. Of those 21, Varitek ranks 18th, with a -2.3 VORP. As in, he has had negative value. As in, you could call up anyone from the Red Sox farm system and he would be more valuable than Varitek. He entered today hitting .219, which may be a record for lowest batting average by an All-Star. Varitek is tied for third among AL catchers in home runs, but is just eighth in AL catchers in RBI. I could continue, but the point is obvious - Varitek was a bad pick and not really a defensible one. The interesting thing about Varitek's pick is that it was a player's pick, not a manager's pick. Let's see how that breaks out for the AL:

Fans: the nine starters
Players: Bradley, Varitek, Drew, Morneau, Kinsler, Young, Crede, Quentin, Sizemore, Halladay, Lee, Kazmir, Saunders, Santana, Rivera, Papelbon, F Rodriguez, Soria
Francona: Guillen, Navarro, Sherrill, Duchscherer and Nathan

So, with Francona's picks, he needed to pick one guy from Oakland, one guy from Oakland, one guy from Baltimore and two others. That essentially makes Navarro and Nathan his only discretionary picks. I can only assume that he felt he needed a third catcher, whether to protect Varitek or just to not overwork the catchers in general. I would take umbrage with that, but some positions were going to have three players I suppose. Nathan is a very solid pick, and one that I almost made.

Another thing to note is that I believe Francona still has one injury pick to make, since Bradley was named to the team by the players.

For the Final Vote, we have the following five guys:

- Jason Giambi
- Evan Longoria
- Brian Roberts
- Jose Guillen
- Jermaine Dye

So, I didn't actually have any of these guys on my Final Vote projection, which is dissapointing. But I did have Longoria and Dye on my actual team, so I get partial credit for that, right? Dye essentially flip-flopped spots with Quentin. Initially, I had Quentin on my team and Dye in the Final Vote, but I thought Dye's numbers plus reputation would trump Quentin's numbers plus fast start. Obviously, I was wrong. I would hope to see Longoria win this vote, but I will go ahead and assume that Giambi will make it, leaving me at 23 of 33 picked correctly. I'll update both lists next week once the Final Vote has finished and injury replacements have been named. All in all, not too shabby!