After the crushing realization that I didn't do too well in my 2007 NCAA Tournament bracket, and the depressing finish of BU Hockey's season, one that assuredly crushed John Curry's already slim chances to win the Hobey Baker award, it's time to officially move on to baseball season. And with my three fantasy league drafts in the books, it's time to make my predictions for the 2007 MLB season.
One theme is pretty clear in the early going - there are no dominant teams. Like every season, some will emerge with more wins than others, that is the nature of the beast, but there are no 1998 Yankees or 2001 Mariners in this group of teams. Every team has flaws - some simply have fewer than others. And with that, let's move on to the picks themselves.
I wouldn't call my process overtly scientific, nor would I call it one that strictly adheres to my gut. One thing I did do was to make sure my totals match up mathematically, that there are 2,430 wins and 2,430 losses accounted for. I also tend to look at the individual team as well as the aggregate division. For instance, I firmly believe that the AL Central and NL West are the two best divisions in baseball. Likewise, I believe the AL West is the worst division, with the NL East and NL Central also competing for that title. Finally, once wins and losses are divvied up, I look at the teams 1-30 to see if they logically match up as a double check. In making the picks, I use BP's 2007 PECOTA projections, SI's and Rotowire's projected lineups, and 2006 statistics as resources. Without further ado:
AL East...W...L...RANK
NYA......94...68...1
BOS.......89...73...5
BAL.......78...84...20
TBA.......76...86...21
TOR.......76...86...22
While the Yankees are certainly not without their holes, the Red Sox simply have too many question marks to be viewed as favorites. Forgetting the obvious questions about how Matsuzaka will perform, there are questions about health (Papelbon, Timlin, Schilling, Wakefield, Varitek), performance (Lugo & Drew moving to the AL, Crisp and Beckett rebound, Pedroia's emergence), and who will do what in the bullpen. While the last should be a minor concern with so many veterans, the former two are of paramount importance. If everything breaks right for Boston, they could finally dethrone the Yankees. But the law of averages says it won't, and with Philip Hughes the Yankees have the mid-season bullet that the Sox simply don't possess. As for Toronto dropping to last, I don't see what they have done that merits consideration for anything else. They lost Ted Lilly and replaced him with retreads. According to Will Carroll's Positional Health Reports, the Jays and Royals are the only two teams with 4 red lights in the starting rotation, and the depth behind the front five isn't exactly Hall of Fame worthy. Meanwhile, Tampa's offense could be eye opening, and Baltimore's rotation should be improved, and at the very least has less question marks than Toronto's.
AL Central...W...L...RANK
CLE.............91...71...3
MIN............90...72...4
DET............86...76...10
CHA............86...76...11
KCA............69...93...28
Simply the best division in baseball. While some would argue that these teams will beat up on each other, forcing the Wild Card to come out of a division, that is simple foolishness. It certainly didn't play out that way last year, and it won't happen this year either. With the depth Cleveland has added through free agency in the outfield and bullpen and in the rotation through their farm system, they are better equipped than anyone in the division to make a big run. Also look for Victor Martinez to move out from behind the plate more frequently, something that should help his offense. The only projection that troubles me here is Detroit. If Sheffield can return to form, and their starters can avoid the burnout that plagued the White Sox after their title run, they could make things even more interesting. However, it is also possible that players like Brandon Inge, Marcus Thames, and Nate Robertson turned in career years, and that the Tigers got post-major-injury-career years from the likes of Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, and the middle probably won't get them to October.
AL West...W...L...RANK
LAA........81...81...15
OAK .......78...84...19
TEX........72...90...27
SEA ........68...94...29
Two things to note. First, this is the only division where I have only one team at .500 or better, and the Angels at 15th are the lowest overall rank for a division winner. Simply put, the Angels didn't do much to make themselves better in 2007. They will get Howie Kendrick and Gary Matthews Jr., but I don't know that the latter will be of much help. The corner outfielders are about as mobile as parking cones, and the corner infielders haven't been productive since the heydays of Troy Glaus and Tim Salmon. With Juan Rivera out until June, the onus will be on the older players like Garrett Anderson to play more and on more consecutive days, something that probably won't work out too well. The rotation is stellar, and a full year of Jered Weaver should he be healthy is probably just what the doctor ordered. However, the offense will once again hold them back from being great. Fortunately for the Angels, the rest of the division isn't much to write home about. Entrusting the A's rotation to Rich Harden is about as smart as trusting Theodore Bagwell to do the right thing - it's probably not a good idea. The jury is still out on him - and Bobby Crosby, Mark Ellis, and Mark Kotsay - until he/they prove they can stay upright for a full season. Also, wishcasting Mike Piazza into a Frank Thomas-like savior seems convenient in March, but is likely fools gold. Piazza will still be good, and worth the money paid him, but the last time he put up 39 HR's and 114 RBI's in a season no one in this country knew who Osama Bin Laden was. Finally, some people are touting the Rangers as a sleeper pick. That is probably more reflective of the division being weak than the Rangers being good. Sometimes a sleeper is a legitimate sleeper, and sometimes people are grasping at straws.
NL East...W...L... RANK
NYN......93...69...2
PHI.......87...75...8
ATL......80...82...17
FLN......76...86...23
WAS.....60...102...30
Watching a Braves vs. Phillies game the other day, I was treated to the analysis that the Braves are the team to beat in the NL East this year; their failure in 2006 a blip on the screen for the still-proud franchise. Sorry, not buying it. The story goes that a revamped bullpen and a minor drop offensively (at worst) from Marcus Giles to Kelly Johnson and Adam LaRoche to Scott Thorman will leave the Braves better balanced and stronger overall. But that doesn't solve the problem of how Atlanta will keep runs off the board. With a rookie and a converted outfielder on the right side of the diamond, and an aging superstar with declining range at 3B, the Braves infield defense should be a sieve. Not to mention that after John Smoltz, the rotation is no picnic. Simply put, the Mets have a great core on offense that they added to with Moises Alou, and will likely get better production out of a more mature Lastings Milledge in 2007 as well. The Mets rotation certainly has some question marks, but Omar Minaya, Willie Randolph, and Rick Peterson have to be given the benefit of the doubt at this point. And Pedro will be wearing Superman's cape come September...
NL Central...W...L...RANK
MIL.............86...76...9
STL.............84...80...13
CHN............81...81...16
PIT.............80...82...18
CIN.............74...88...25
HOU...........73...89...26
While the Mets braintrust has earned the benefit of the doubt, the same can not be said for the Astros. While the Tim Purpura era got off to a great start, some of the decisions made following the 2005 run are downright befuddling, and unfairly or not, it is time to question whether Purpura rode Gerry Hunsicker's coattails to his team's pennant-winning 2005 season. As Joe Sheehan wrote recently over at BP, the Astros don't allocate their resources efficiently, and really don't seem to care either. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has found a way to keep Bill Hall to in the lineup, maximizing Hall's flexibility and getting the best bats into the starting lineup. With a healthy Ben Sheets as the backbone, youngsters like Corey Hart, and a more stable bullpen now that Derrick Turnbow has been demoted, the Brewers are primed for the run many people predicted would happen last year. The Cardinals will be what they were last year - a .500 team that wins a couple extra games thanks to Albert Pujols, but that won't cut it this season. The Cubs spent a lot of money on Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez, but they doesn't pitch, and Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis aren't going to be good enough upgrades to make the Cubs contenders.
NL West...W...L...RANK
LAN........89...73...6
COL........88...74...7
ARI........86...76...12
SDN.......83...79...14
SFN........76...86...24
The theme in this division is depth. The Dodgers and Rockies have more of it than anyone. In LA, the Dodgers go two deep at almost every position on the diamond. Their B lineup looks like this:
C Mike Lieberthal
1B James Loney
2B Marlon Anderson
3B Andy LaRoche
SS Ramon Martinez
LF Jason Repko
CF Brady Clark
RF Matt Kemp
This lineup wouldn't win you a division on its own, but with 3 primetime prospects, a former All-Star at catcher, and solid citizens filling in elsewhere, this just goes to show how deep LA is. This isn't to mention the fact that they have 8 pitchers capable of handling the starter role, and 2 closers in Saito and Broxton. Simply put, they have a lot of bullets in their proverbial bandolier.
The Rockies aren't very different. Jeff Baker, Steve Finley, Yorvit Torrealba, and Jamey Carroll give the Rockies a dynamic bench capable of filling in at all positions on the diamond. The rotation, while not top heavy, is very balanced and will have reinforcements. BH Kim can step in for a faltering member if not traded, and Brian Lawrence is well on his way to contributing after missing all of 2006. Add to that possible call-ups for guys like Ubaldo Jimenez, Oscar Rivera, and Franklin Morales by season's end, and the Rockies will not succumb to the emergency waiver wire pickups like they have in the past. Furthermore, their top four offensive core of Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins, Todd Helton, and Brad Hawpe is the best in the division. The Diamondbacks and Padres will be entertaining teams to watch and certainly a case can be made for either team. However, the quality of the depth in San Diego doesn't stack up to that of Colorado and LA, particularly in a rotation with two 40+ pitchers. Also, the likelihood of so many young players all living up to expectations at the same time in Arizona is unlikely, leaving the D'Backs a year away from taking the NL by storm. The West is going to be a hard fought division, and when all the Baby'Backs really hit their stride in 2008, it will be even more of a dog fight.
PLAYOFFS
AL
1 New York Yankees over 4 Minnesota Twins in 5 games
2 Cleveland Indians over 3 Los Angeles Angels in 3 games
...
2 Cleveland Indians over 1 New York Yankees in 6 games
NL
1 New York Mets over 4 Colorado Rockies in 4 games
3 Milwaukee Brewers over 2 Los Angeles Dodgers in 4 games
...
1 New York Mets over 3 Milwaukee Brewers in 6 games
Cleveland Indians over New York Mets in 7 games
AWARDS
AL MVP: Derek Jeter
NL MVP: Carlos Beltran
AL Cy Young: CC Sabathia
NL Cy Young: Ben Sheets
AL ROY: Alex Gordon - Philip Hughes will be the pick if he graduates to NY before Memorial Day
NL ROY: Chris Young
Can we play ball already?