Wednesday, April 04, 2012

2012 MLB Season Predictions

Earlier today (or yesterday by the time this posts), the FanGraphs' staff predictions hit the interwebs. Since those were just the basics, here are the rest.


AL East W L PCT
NYY 94 68 0.580
TB 92 70 0.568
BOS 88 74 0.543
TOR 88 74 0.543
BAL 60 102 0.370



About the Red Sox -- I really see this team as having a depth problem, particularly on the pitching staff. We are already seeing this with the Andrew Bailey injury, but even before that it was going to be an issue. Clay Buchholz had a bad back injury last year, and we can't know if he'll make it through a full season healthy. And that's not counting the untested Daniel Bard and Felix Doubront starting. I wasn't in the minority in leaving them out of the playoffs -- 12 of the 20 FG people left them out.


AL Cent W L PCT
DET 91 71 0.562
CLE 83 79 0.512
KC 78 84 0.481
MIN 70 92 0.432
CHW 65 97 0.401



This division leaves a lot to be desired. If Kansas City can land the right pitcher for the front of their rotation, next year could be the year they take over the division for a long time. But this season, it will still be Detroit atop the division. But even with Fielder, they will be a bad champion, with a horrible defensive infield.


AL West W L PCT
TEX 96 66 0.593
LAA 92 70 0.568
SEA 75 87 0.463
OAK 68 94 0.420


I think this will finally be Texas' year, although I may have said the same thing last year. Anaheim claims one of the two Wild Cards along with Tampa.

Tampa will win the play-in game, and then fall to the Yankees in the Division Series. In the other Division Series, Texas will beat Detroit. That will set up a Texas-Yankees ALCS for the second time in three seasons, with the same result. I was one of six FG folks to put them in the World Series.


NL East W L PCT
WAS 90 72 0.556
ATL 87 75 0.537
MIA 86 76 0.531
PHI 85 77 0.525
NYM 68 94 0.420



Here is my sleeper. I like the Nats a great deal this season. They have an improved rotation, a deep bullpen, and while Mike Morse should regress some, Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman should bounce back nicely. This division is chock full of talent though, so it won't be easy, and really any team from one-through-four could come out on top. But I think this is the year that the Phillies fall apart. And while Miami should be better, I think Atlanta has enough starting pitching depth to put them over the top and into one of the Wild Card spots. I was one of just two FG people (Zach Sanders being the other) to pick Washington for the division, and one of just eight to pick Atlanta to reach the postseason at all.


NL Cent W L PCT
STL 89 73 0.549
CIN 87 75 0.537
MIL 83 79 0.512
CHC 75 89 0.451
PIT 71 91 0.438
HOU 56 106 0.346


As we saw tonight, the Cardinals are still going to be a formidable team. I detailed it on Monday in my first ESPN Insider piece (check back for one every Monday), but they are very deep in all three phases -- lineup, rotation and bullpen. I would love to pick the Reds to win the division, but I just don't trust Dusty Baker. I don't see why Bronson Arroyo is still on that squad. I could see the Cubs at better than 75 wins, but at this time, I don't see where their extra wins would come from, so I'll stand on 75. I was one of just six FG people to take St. Louis to win the Central, and one of five to slot Cincy for a Wild Card berth.


NL West W L PCT
ARI 93 69 0.574
LAD 85 77 0.525
SF 83 79 0.512
COL 78 84 0.481
SD 74 88 0.457


Arizona has a wealth of pitching, and could be even better this year. What's more, they're a fun team to watch, which is a plus. As for the Giants, I just don't believe in their offense, at all. The Dodgers' offense won't be much better, but I expect the Kemp-Ethier duo to be better than Sandoval-Posey. And I also think the Dodgers will play better defense.

Atlanta takes the Wild Card play-in, loses to Arizona in the DS, and St. Louis takes down Washington in the other DS. In the LCS, Arizona bests St. Louis, setting up an incredibly entertaining D-backs-Rangers World Series.

I think that my favorite part of doing these picks was realizing that there really is no obvious favorite, and that was borne out in the FanGraphs' picks.

Happy Opening Day everyone. It's going to be a great year.



Sunday, January 15, 2012

A Brief Reminder of Bill Belichick's Brilliance

The Patriots defense has not played particularly well this season. Or for the last couple of seasons, to be perfectly honest. But the strength of a Bill Belichick defense has always been that they take away your greatest strength, essentially daring you to beat them with one hand tied behind your back. Last night, the Patriots D was able to do that to the Broncos, and as good as Tom Brady and Co. were, the play of the defense was why the Patriots so utterly dominated the Broncos.

The Broncos were a running team this season. Overall, they averaged 4.8 yards per carry (6th in the NFL) and 164.5 yards per game on the ground (1st in the NFL by 11.5 yards per game). Last night, the Patriots took away the run. The Broncos only averaged 3.6 yards per carry, and while they did pile up 144 yards, much of that was due to the fact that they refused to abandon the run in the second half.

Stopping the run stops all of the Broncos' offensive momentum, as they seem most effective at throwing the ball when they can utilize play action. With the threat of the run neutralized early, the Patriots were not fooled by the Broncos' play action. This was most notable when Gerard Warren came bursting through the line and went straight for Tebow, wrestling him to the ground before he even had a chance to turn around.

The Patriots put the game out of reach in the final two minutes of the first half, but up until that point Denver still had a chance. But the reason they weren't able to gain much traction is because the Pats forced them to win without their best weapon, and they simply aren't a good enough team to do that.

Monday, January 02, 2012

Sixth Annual End Of Year CDs

Each year, in a (mostly) vain to stay up to date with the music world, I put together an end-of-year CD set, and give them out to some close friends as Christmas presents (you can see my 2009 and 2010 writeups here). I finally handed out the last one on New Year's Eve, so I figured it was high time to put up this year's list.

As a reminder, nearly all of the songs on the Aboveground mix reached the Billboard Top 100, while the Underground mix are songs that are decidedly the opposite. The only other rule is that the song had to be released commercially during 2011.

Aboveground Mix
1. Adele: Rolling In The Deep
This one was solidified early in the year. I don't really think there was a better candidate for song of the year.
2. DJ Khaled: I'm On One f/ Drake, Lil' Wayne & Rick Ross
One question -- is DJ Khaled still the DJ for the Terror Squad? Ha. The beat here shines the brightest, and that's saying something, as all three rappers turn in excellent verses, particularly Rick Ross. It's funny that Ross pops up here, since I don't care for him at all. But despite his lackluster catalog overall, he finds a way to put up or be a part of one good single every year -- he's managed to find his way onto my collection in five of the six years I've done it. He's like the Michael Young of hip-hop.
3. Coldplay: Paradise
Any song that features people dancing in elephant costumes in its video is a winner in my book.
4. Jay-Z & Kanye West: Ni**s In Paris
I know some people didn't care for Watch The Throne's decadent ways, but I loved it. Of the two most popular singles from the album, this and "Otis," this was the clear choice for me. I actually found "Otis" to be one of the weaker tracks on the album overall, and even liked tracks like "No Church In The Wild" and "Murder To Excellence" better than Paris, but I stuck to my format here, for better or worse.
5. Gym Class Heroes: Stereo Hearts f/ Adam Levine
Feel free to hate on this one, but this track really bangs. I kind of think of Gym Class Heroes as the poor man's and pop man's GZA.
6. Britney Spears: Till The World Ends
The most over-the-top Britney single ever? The world could be collapsing all around you, but hey, as long as we're dancing, it's all good!
7. Bad Meets Evil: Lighters f/ Bruno Mars
I've only been waiting for this reunion since 1999. "Scary Movies" is still one of my favorite tracks of all time.
8. Nicki Minaj: Super Bass
Pink Friday didn't meet my expectations, but this bonus track, which was for some reason not released until this year, is hard to deny. Yes, she uses her voices, which I don't much care for in general, but here, they intertwine nicely. A runner-up for song of the year.
9. Foster The People: Pumped Up Kicks
This song was apparently first written in 2009, but became the little pop song that could only in this year. I relish in songs that have violent themes but catchy little dittys, where you end up merrily singing the chorus without even realizing what you're singing. Good times.
10. Kelly Rowland: Motivation f/ Lil' Wayne
A second song where the beat is the champion, it's always nice to see Kelly Rowland -- who I always felt got unfairly shafted out of further fame and fortune when Beyonce set off on her own -- see some success. The brief cameo from Weezy here gives him three appearances on the mix, the most for the year and tied for the most in any year (Kanye West, 2008; Drake, 2010). I find this amusing, because I really didn't think it was that great of a year for him. But he keeps turning up.
11. Dr. Dre: I Need A Doctor f/ Eminem & Skylar Grey
This is the second straight year where the maddening doctor has released a single for an album that has not yet been released in full, and may never be at all. I didn't like this song when it first came out because I was upset that Nate Dogg didn't get to sing the hook, but that's kind of silly -- Skylar Grey did a good job with the hook.
12. David Guetta: Without You f/ Usher
David Guetta gets the heavy hitters, and I preferred this track to the Nicki Minaj/Flo Rida track. I do have some standards, and not including Flo Rida songs is one of them.
13. Maroon 5: Moves Like Jagger
Of course, my standards aren't that high.
Me: I need to get going on my end-of-year CD's.
Wife: Oh! Are you going to put "Moves With Jagger" on it? I love that song.
Me: Uh.......sure.
14. Lil' Wayne: 6 Foot 7 Foot f/ Cory Gunz
Six foot, seven foot, eight foot, bunch! There wasn't much that stood out on Tha Carter IV -- this and "Outro" was about it.
15. Beyonce Knowles: Countdown
I really enjoyed 4, and might have included the track with Andre 3000 here, but "Countdown" was the standout single.
16. Lady Gaga: You And I
I'm not really concerned with the way in which she was born, especially since that song was more of the same from her. But this was a departure, and while I generally don't care for country music, I thought this was a well-done song, and more still, a brave effort that should be commended. She could have easily churned out 10 "Born This Way's" and still sold a gazillion records, but she didn't. That's refreshing.
17. Drake: Headlines
This album has stirred so many different emotions in me it isn't funny, but the bottom line is that it's an awesome piece of work. I would have preferred "Marvin's Room" here, but the track is simply too long, so "Headlines" it is.
18. Kreayshawn: Gucci Gucci
Between her beef with Rick Ross, and her girl's use of the N word, people may tire of Kreayshawn quickly, but if she ends up a one-hit wonder, it certainly was a memorable hit. "I got the swag and it's pumping out my ovaries" was one of the funniest, if not best, lines of the year.
19. Rihanna: We Found Love
At this point, Rihanna is a legend, and legends are comfortable standing at the back while everyone does their thing, patiently waiting to explode and re-claim the crowd when it's their turn. And explode is exactly what "We Found Love" does. It also fits well at the end since it debuted late in the year.
20. The Muppets: Life's A Happy Song Finale
I'll be fairly pissed when The Muppets is inevitably ignored for Best Picture, but that's a discussion for another time. This was a pretty good year for me personally, and I thought this was a fitting way to cap it. If you think that's corny, well then corn me up. Life's a happy song, when there's someone by your side to sing along.

Underground Mix
1. Aaron Spacemuseum: One Night Standard
A gratuitous lead entry, and it's not even hip-hop. Aaron is a good friend of mine, and it's been a long time since he put out any music in a long time, so I was excited for his EP, which was an excellent five song set. Do me a favor and pick it up, you won't be disappointed!
2. A$AP Rocky: Peso
One of my favorite albums of the year, I thought about putting one of the versions of "Purple Swag," but I felt the original was too short, and Chapter 2 was too long.
3. NaS: Nasty
"Any rebuttal to what I utter get boxcutter." Indeed. It's been too long since we had a NaS solo album, and this was a marvelous appetizer.
4. Kendrick Lamar: HiiiPower
"Trying to stay above water, that's why we shun the Navy." Classic, and that's not even the best line of the song.
5. The Roots: Make My f/ Big K.R.I.T. & Dice Raw
I kind of like "Kool On" a little better, but it's an upbeat song and the album overall is more morose, so "Make My" is a more emblematic choice (plus it was the single they released, which I do like to try to stick to when there is one). And while it may seem odd to see The Roots on an underground disc, the album really hasn't sold that well. It hasn't charted at all, and had only sold 84,000 copies between its Dec. 2 release date and Christmas, which is a shame.
6. Action Bronson: Larry Csonka
Full disclosure, I'm late to the party on Action Bronson, and still haven't listened to either of his projects from this year in full. But I knew I needed to include something from him here, and I have a hard time turning down songs named after athletes.
7. Freddie Gibbs: Menace II Society f/ Dom Kennedy & Polyester
I liked Freddie's take at a west-coast style song.
8. Apathy: Stop What Ya Doin' f/ Celph Titled & DJ Premier
Any time a rapper titles his album Honkey Kong, he gets a song on my CD!
9. Tyler, The Creator: Yonkers
TTC is another guy who I haven't fully delved into yet, but this song and video will undeniably go down as the most memorable of the year.
10. Azealia Banks: 212
This chick is filthy. She's like a sped-up Nicki Minaj, which I didn't think was possible. Looking forward to her debut album.
11. Childish Gambino: Bonfire
Pitchfork famously lampooned this album, but I enjoyed it. I actually enjoy "Fire Fly" a little more, but I was so squeezed for time trying to fit everything in that I couldn't spare the extra 10 seconds, so "Bonfire" will have to do. Sometimes you gotta make the hard decisions!
12. Danny Brown: DNA
Realistically, I could have just copy and pasted all of XXX here and just called it a day, it's that good. You could make a case for a half-dozen other tracks from the album.
13. Random Axe: Chewbacca f/ Roc Marciano
"Your tough talk, I don't get it / you wouldn't fight a ticket, so why recite a lyric." Tough-guy rap sometimes gets lost in the shuffle these days, making this even more important to include.
14. Mobb Deep: Get It Forever f/ NaS
Speaking of tough-guy rap, thank goodness for Mobb Deep's return. Black Cocaine wasn't their strongest effort, but "Get It Forever" was good enough to whet my appetite. "I did my little bid." You did Prodigy, now get back in the lab!
15. Curren$y & The Alchemist: Scottie Pippens f/ Freddie Gibbs As Kramer would say, Curren$y is so prolific! Curren$y plus The Alchemist equals pure gold, to borrow another Seinfeld-ism, and Freddie Gibbs here is the icing on the cake.
16. Lil' B: I Hate Myself
Lil' B goes on a personal journey over a lush track. Just like Drake's Take Care, Lil' B's I'm Gay disc was great music to write to at the end of the year.
17. Ski Beatz: Looking For Me f/ L.E.P. Bogus Boys & Terri Walker
Ski is an awesome producer, just check this resume. He actually gets the production credit on this track and the next.
18. Talib Kweli: Cold Rain
With each passing year, Kweli seems to slide further out of the zeitgeist, but he still hits as hard as he ever did. I have my fingers crossed that the Black Star album actually happens.
19. Pete Rock & Smif-n-Wessun: That's Hard f/ Sean Price & Styles P
Rounding out the album with two awesome posse cuts. The song's title says it all.
20. Mr. Muthaf**kin' eXquire: The Last Huzzah! Remix f/ Despot, Das Racist, Danny Brown & El-P
This song is just bananas. One of the best singles of the year, and perhaps one of the best remixes of all-time, even if breast milk doesn't really make my day.
BONUS CHRISTMAS TRACK. Eazy-E: Merry Motherf**king Christmas f/ Menajahtwa, Buckwheat, Will 1X & Atban Klann
I ended the Aboveground Mix with a sappy cut, so you know I had to go in the complete opposite direction for the bonus Christmas track. Merry motherf**king Christmas!