5 Facts About Curtis Granderson

Most people know that Curtis Granderson's 2007 season is one of four seasons to belong to the 20-20-20-20 Club (20 homers, doubles, triples and stolen bases in the same season) along with Frank Schulte's 1911 season, Willie Mays' 1957 season and Jimmy Rollins' 2007 season. They also know that Granderson has a reputation for being an incredibly nice guy. Let's look a little bit further and get five more facts about one of the newest New York Yankees.

1. Granderson's 2007 and 2008 seasons stand out significantly from the rest of his career. His 2009 season opened doubts that Granderson has already peaked, which wouldn't be out of place given that his 2008 season was his age-27 season (typically a player's best season statistically). In 2007 and 2008, Granderson hit .292/.363/.524, for an OPS of .887. In his other seasons (2004-2006 & 2009) he hit .256/.329/.450, for an OPS of .778, or more than a 100 point difference.

2. In 2007, Granderson hit fastballs incredibly well. According to FanGraphs' wFB stat, he was 31.7 runs above average versus fastballs, good for ninth in all of baseball. In 2008, he dropped down to a respectable 14.9, good for 46th place. But last season, he fell all the way to 1.2, or 115th out of 153 qualifying players.

3. Defensively, Granderson is a big upgrade from Melky Cabrera. For his career, Cabrera has a Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) per 150 games of -2.4, while Granderson's mark is 5.2, almost a full win better. Granderson's +17 mark in center field was the third best in 2009 (Brett Gardner was the best Yankee at +11) and his +26 mark from 2007-2009 ranked seventh among center fielders. Cabrera did not factor in the top 10 of either leaderboard. Also, Granderson finished third in the 2009 Fielding Bible Awards for center field.

4. Among the 132 batters that had at least 150 plate appearances versus left-handed pitching in 2009, Granderson's isolated power (ISO) was the third lowest (only Scott Podsednik and Emilio Bonafacio were lower), his on-base percentage was second lowest (only Stephen Drew was lower) and his slugging percentage was the lowest overall by a wide margin.

5. Granderson is hard to double up. He has never grounded into more than seven double plays in a season, and last season he had the best GIDP% in the Majors, at a minuscule 0.94%. (minimum 50 GIDP opportunities) He grounded into only one double play in 106 opportunities. To put that in context, 132 players had 100 or more GIDP opportunities, and of that group, the next lowest GIDP total was four, by Grady Sizemore and Luke Scott.

Next up in the "5 Facts" series: Javier Vazquez
Next post: My 2009 "Aboveground" & "Underground" Mix CD's explained, coming Wednesday or Thursday

30 Things I Learned Reading the 2010 Bill James Handbook

The Bill James Handbook, published each year by the good folks at Baseball Information Systems (BIS), is filled with endless stats and information. As James states toward the back of the book, it is designed to be a book of facts, a record of the season. The validity of some of the information may be questionable to some, including myself, but the breadth of the information presented is difficult to find anywhere else, and as such it makes the book an incredibly useful, and fun tool.

Below are 30 fun morsels of information I parceled out while reading/skimming the 2010 edition the past week and a half. For most, if not all of these, I looked at the data in-depth. In other words, I tried not to just regurgitate the information presented in the book. I kept it to 30, but there is so much more info in the book that I didn't even examine in-depth, such as the park indices, career register, the instant replay analysis and the manager's record. One could really keep themselves occupied with this book for a long, long time.

1. Eight teams had a winning road record. Six made the playoffs.
2. The NL West was the only division that did not play any games on turf.
3. Six teams beat an opponent 14 or more times: Tampa beat Baltimore 14 times, Detroit beat Cleveland 14 times, Seattle beat Oakland 14 times, the Dodgers beat Colorado 14 times, Philadelphia beat Washington 15 times and Boston beat Baltimore 16 times.
4. Two teams won 21 games in a month - Colorado did it in June and the Yankees did it in August.
5. 10 teams hit more home runs on the road than at home.
6. Seven teams had a team stolen base success rate of 75% or higher.
7. Only three teams grounded into less than 100 double plays - Arizona, Philadelphia and Texas.
8. Seven of the eight playoff teams were in the top 15 in "baserunning net runs gained," a stat that totals the number of runs gained while running the bases during play with the number of runs gained from stolen base attempts.
9. Michael Bourn, Rajai Davis, Ian Kinsler and Chase Utley were the only players that were +15 or greater in both baserunning and stolen base gain.
10. In addition to those four, Jason Bartlett, Brett Gardner, Torii Hunter, Matthew Kemp, Nick Punto, Willy Taveras, Jayson Werth and Randy Winn were all +10 or greater in both categories.
11. The Wests were the best baserunning divisions, the Centrals the worst and the Easts in between. Averaging the net gain on the bases of the teams by division, I find that the AL West had an average net gain of 56.75 runs, with the NL West second at 46.2. Then came the NL East at 28.6 and the AL East at 26.8, and then the AL Central at -2.0, and the NL Central dead last at -3.66.
12. Only eight pitchers had a "leverage index" of greater than or equal to 2.0 - David Aardsma, Heath Bell, Brian Fuentes, Brad Lidge, Jonathan Papelbon, Scot Shields, Joakim Soria and Brian Wilson (minimum two games pitched).
13. Only eight pitchers recorded three or more "tough saves," as defined by BIS - Bell, Ryan Franklin, Mike MacDougal, Papelbon, Chad Qualls, Mariano Rivera, Soria and Wilson.
14. 43 relief pitchers inherited 40 or more runners last season. Of that group, Jason Bergmann was the stingiest, as he allowed just 14% of his inherited runners to score.
15. 16 players had 10 or more pinch hits in 2009.
16. Five players hit three or more pinch hit home runs in 2009.
17. BIS has an unique way of tracking "manufactured runs." According to their totals, the Angels led baseball in this category, as they manufactured 50 more runs than their opponents. The Royals were at the opposite end of the spectrum. They manufactured 63 less runs than their opponents.
18. Nick Markakis had the most at-bats versus left-handed pitching, with 264.
19. Ryan Braun had the most at-bats versus right-handed pitching, with 516.
20. Prince Fielder, Raul Ibanez and Hideki Matsui led MLB with 13 home runs as left-handed batters against left-handed pitching.
21. Mark Reynolds led MLB with 36 homers as a right-handed batter versus right-handed pitching.
22. 23 hitters hit 10 or more home runs versus both left-handed and right-handed pitching. 12 of them were right-handed hitters (Jason Bay, Michael Cuddyer, Mark DeRosa, Aaron Hill, Ian Kinsler, Paul Konerko, Albert Pujols, Juan Rivera, Cody Ross, Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Upton and Werth), 10 were left-handed (Russell Branyan, Robinson Cano, Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Ibanez, Matsui, Justin Morneau, Carlos Pena, Luke Scott and Utley) and one was a switch hitter (Victor Martinez).
23. Only Joe Mauer and Kevin Youkilis were top 10 in the AL in on-base percentage versus both left-handed and right-handed pitching. In the NL, only Nick Johnson and Pujols were in the same group.
24. Outlier alert! BIS has a stat called BPS, which is batting average + slugging percentage. On pitches outside of the strike zone, Ben Zobrist had the best BPS score in the AL, with a score of .833. The second highest mark in the ALwas .671, and the highest NL mark was .663.
25. Looking at Bill James' Runs Created stat, we can see that Bay and Youkilis were the only players to rank in the top 10 in the AL in terms of "Runs Created per 27 Outs" against both left-handed and right-handed pitching. In the NL, there were also two who were in this group - Fielder and Pujols.
26. The two worst AL catchers in terms of percentage of runners caught stealing were Red Sox by the end of the season - Jason Varitek and Martinez. Only Yorvit Torrealba saved them from being the two worst in baseball.
27. Among the top seven active leaders in wins, only Pedro Martinez is not also top seven among players in losses.
28. Derek Holland was the one pitcher that had one of the ten best AL Game Scores as well as one of the 10 worst AL Game Scores.
29. During the decade, 17 players had a Win Share mark of 15 or better in five consecutive seasons. 11 players did it in six consecutive seasons, six did it in seven consecutive seasons, five did it in eight consecutive seasons, seven did it in nine consecutive seasons and five did it in every season of the decade. Those five players were Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Chipper Jones and Alex Rodriguez.
30. The single-best Win Shares season of the decade, and the only season over 40, was Pujols' mark of 41 in 2003. There were 16 other seasons of 35 or better. Pujols and Rodriguez had four seasons each, with Jason Giambi the only other player to do it more than once. None of the 17 seasons were turned in by pitchers, and 10 were turned in by first basemen.

5 Facts About Jeremy Hermida

1. Jeremy Hermida's career year in 2007 was a pretty big aberration thus far. That season, he ranked 95th in VORP and 48th in EqA (minimum 300 plate appearances). In the other three years he saw regular playing time (2006, 2008 and 2009), he never ranked higher than 236 in VORP or 156th in EqA (again, minimum 300 PA).

2. Among NL right fielders over the last three years, Hermida is tied for eighth in Fielding Runs +/-.

3. Hermida has been essentially league average throughout his career. His career batting average is .265, compared to the "league batting average" of .268. His on-base percentage is .344, compared to a "league OBP" of .339. His slugging percentage is .425, compared to a "league SLG" of .429. Finally, his career EqA is .268, just slightly over the league average EqA of .260.

4. Though he has only hit 57 career homers, he has homered in 20 different ballparks, including every NL ballpark except Milwaukee. He has even thrown in both Shea Stadium and Citi Field for good measure.

5. Though Hermida has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching, both last year (.189/.289/.311 in 121 PA) and his career in general (.237/.321/.376 in 471 PA), he has been more than serviceable versus right-handed pitching. Last season, his .283 AVG vs. righties ranked 88th, and his .370 OBP ranked 60th (minimum 300 PA), and for his career his OPS against righties is almost 100 points higher than it is against lefties.

Bonus Observation - Hermida's comparables could lead him in a number of directions. Looking at his baseball-reference (similar batters through age 25) and Baseball Prospectus comps, there are players who washed out quickly after age 25, such as Leron Lee and Phil Kokos, players that continued to be role players such as Ed Kirkpatrick and Rick Reichardt, players that went on to be full-time regulars such as Mel Hall and Jose Guillen, and finally players who did better than that, such as Andy Van Slyke, George Kendrick, Dale Murphy and Adrian Gonzalez. But one name that is common to both lists, and should be of interest to Sox fans, is Dwight Evans. Through age 25, Evans hit .261/.337/.438 for a .775 OPS, with 65 homers and 851 total bases in 617 games and 2,212 plate appearances. Hermida, by comparison, has hit .265/.344/.425 for a .769 OPS, with 57 homers and 726 total bases in 516 games and 1,929 plate appearances. Of course, unlike Hermida, Evans also had a Gold Glove under his belt and had hit .292/.393/.542 in the '75 World Series by the time he finished his age 25 season. In any event, it is interesting to see how many different directions his comp list suggests.

Next Up: Curtis Granderson

Addendum to 5 Facts About Marco Scutaro

After my post, I was a little disappointed that I didn't have the Fielding Runs Saved and +/- on Marco Scutaro, so while at Barnes & Noble, I bought the 2010 Bill James Handbook. In it, I found that Scutaro scores much better in both categories. In Fielding Runs Saved, he ranked fifth among shortstops in 2009, and sixth from 2007-2009. In Plus/Minus, he ranked fourth in 2009 among shortstops, and seventh from 2007-2009. So that's good news.

Up next: Jeremy Hermida

5 Facts About Marco Scutaro

1. Marco Scutaro was signed for his defense, and while he wasn't bad last season, he certainly wasn't spectacular. He ranked only 87th overall in RZR in 2009, and just 17th among shortstops. Among UZR, he ranked only 66th, and just 14th among shortstops. He ranked just 14th in UZR/150 games among shortstops. Among shortstops, he was just 11th in Range Factor per nine innings and 10th in Range Factor per game. He ranked 15th among shortstops in double play runs above average. In terms of FRAA1 however, Scutaro scored fourth among shortstops and 28th overall. Finally, Scutaro fared better in 2008, at least in terms of FRAA1, as he was +11 in 2009 and +30 in 2008.

2. Last year, Scutaro's best overall season, he ranked 32nd overall in WARP1, with a total of 5.92. The only Red Sox player ranked higher was Jon Lester, at 28th with a WARP1 of 6.3.

3. For his career, Scutaro has hit righties better than lefties, a rarity for right-handed batters. However, much of that is owed to trouble against lefties earlier in his career. From 2002-2005, he hit only .221 against lefties, though with just 249 at-bats across four years, it wasn't a very large sample. In the past four seasons, he nearly doubled that total, as he amassed 446 at-bats against lefties and did much better, making himself about equal against lefties and righties:

..vs. LHP.. ...vs. RHP...
Years AB AVG AB AVG
'02-'05 249 .221 698 .268
'06-'09 446 .267 1348 .272

4. The Rogers Centre was not kind to Scutaro. His past two seasons in Toronto, he hit .242/.342/.370 at home, giving him a .712 home OPS, and .307/.381/.398 on the road, giving him a .779 road OPS.

5. Scutaro makes hard contact in the air more than most shortstops. In the past two seasons, 12 shortstops had 500 plate appearances or more in both seasons - Yuniesky Betancourt, Orlando Cabrera, Stephen Drew, Yunel Escobar, Christian Guzman, Derek Jeter, Hanley Ramirez, Edgar Renteria, Jimmy Rollins, Scutaro, Miguel Tejada and Ryan Theriot. Of the 12, Scutaro ranked second in both fly ball percentage and line drive percentage, and he ranked 11th in ground ball percentage. He also hit into the fifth fewest pop-ups. 52.15% of Scutaro's batted balls the past two seasons were either fly balls or line drives, which also ranks second among the 12 shortstops, behind only Stephen Drew. So if Scutaro can learn to pull the ball more frequently (he has only pulled the ball in 25% of his overall career plate appearances) he could really rack up the doubles at Fenway Park.

Five Facts about John Lackey

I liked coming up with five facts about Mike Cameron so much, that I thought I'd do the same thing about John Lackey as well.

1. Lackey is 31st among active pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings, but look a little further and it becomes even better. Four of the pitchers that are ahead of Lackey are relievers - Trevor Hoffman, Arthur Rhodes, Mariano Rivera and Tom Gordon. There are also three pitchers who have been starters in their career, but will not be starters in the 2010 season - Kerry Wood, Kelvim Escobar and Chan Ho Park. Five more pitchers are Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Jason Schmidt and Matt Clement, who may be considered either only semi-active or not active at all. Clement for instance has not pitched since 2006. Finally, there is Oliver Perez, who posted a 6.82 ERA last year and whose role with the Mets going forward is less than clear. Take out those pitchers and you are left with Lackey as 18th among active pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings.

2. Last season, Lackey ranked 26th in the Majors in terms of FIP, with a mark of 3.73, .10 better than his real ERA of 3.83. He played behind a slightly below average defense last year in Anaheim according to Baseball Prospectus' defensive efficiency, which accounts for why his FIP is only slightly lower than his real ERA. Expect that to change in 2009 with the Sox, as the defense behind Lackey should be better than it was last year at the key spots where Anaheim struggled. Gary Matthews, who played 91 games last season, had an FRAA of -16 last year. Jeremy Hermida, who is likely going to be in the same role as Matthews was last year - at least in terms of playing time - had a +3 FRAA last year in a bigger outfield in Florida. As for the other Sox outfielders? J.D. Drew and Mike Cameron scored +4, and while Jacoby Ellsbury was a -11, he a) should only get better as he gets more playing time and b) may have seen a one-year blip in his mark, as he was +16 in 2008. Another major difference should be at shortstop. Last year, Erick Aybar had a -2 FRAA, and Maicer Izturis a -8. Marco Scutaro on the other hand, had a FRAA of +8, more than one-win difference.

3. One potential problem for Lackey could be home runs. For his career, 35% of his balls in play have been fly balls, but his career HR/fly ball percentage is a small 9.3, not surprising since he played in a large park in Anaheim, and routinely got to pitch in the caverns that are Safeco Field and whatever it is they're calling Oakland's ballpark these days. That could change in Fenway. While it's difficult to take his Fenway starts too seriously, since he was playing good Red Sox teams, but he has allowed eight home runs in 51.2 career innings at Fenway, good for 1.4 HR/9 innings, or 0.5 higher than his career mark.

4. Of the other five current Red Sox starters - Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield - Lackey throws his fastball (62.2% of the time) only less frequently than Beckett (65.9%), but also at a slower velocity (91.1 MPH) than everyone except for Wakefield (74.5). Lackey also throws his curve ball more frequently than any other current Sox starter - 23% of the time. Beckett, Buchholz and Lester's curve balls range from 16.1-20.8%, while Matsuzaka and Wakefield are in the 4.2-5.2% range.

5. For his career, Lackey shows virtually no second-half split - 3.83 ERA in the first half compared with 3.79 in the second. However, looking just at the past four seasons, he has been a much better first half pitcher, with a 3.18 ERA in the first-half compared with 3.83 in the second half, and that is taking into account how much trouble he had last year, when he struggled when he came back from his injury when he came back in mid-May. From 2006 to 2008, he posted first-half ERAs of 2.88, 2.91 and 2.46. Unfortunately, in those years he also posted second-half ERAs of 4.41, 3.14 and 4.99.

Next up: Marco Scutaro

Avatar

Tonight, I went to the midnight showing of Avatar with a friend, sparing my wife, who I have dragged to many midnight showings, none of which she ever wanted to attend, but did because she's the best. But I digress. In the first sentence.

I was blown away by Avatar. The world of Pandora, its inhabitants and their modes of communication, are stunning. I say "modes of communication" rather than "language" because the Na'vi people communicate with the planet and its animals as well as they do with each other.

But I was more blown away when I got home. I generally don't like to read movie reviews of a movie I am highly anticipating before I head to the multiplex, and this case was no different. However, I did happen to read the title of David Chen's review on SlashFilm - "Epic Filmmaking, Epically Bad Dialogue" - inadvertently as I was scrolling through the site last week. So I took that observation with me into the film. Upon my return tonight, or this morning, whichever you prefer, I revisited and read that review, along with Russ Fischer's, Owen Gleiberman's and Peter Travers'. They all reference the same thing as Chen - bad dialogue. And this is why movie critics are generally ignored by the public.

The problem with complaining about dialogue is that these - and most other reviewers - fail to see the elemental issue. This is how normal people talk. These reviews complain about dialogue such as "fight terror with terror," and call it "stilted." Stephen Lang, who plays Colonel Miles Quartich, is described as having "bitter intensity," as a "vicious military roughneck," and possibly the "most intense villain of the year." Forgive me if I think a character described as such isn't about to deliver a Shakespearean soliloquy. "Fight terror with terror" is exactly how this man would talk.

Which leads us back to the critics, who for the most part have two fundamental problems. First, they spend so much time watching "films" that are so disconnected from reality that they have a hard time appreciating it. Now, I have never met any of these reviewers, nor the people I grew up reading in the Worcester Telegram & Gazette, or read later in the Boston Globe and Denver Post. But I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that their jobs preclude them from interacting too much with military personnel. Now, that's not to say that I have a wealth of first-hand experience myself, but from the little I have seen, Avatar's "stilted" dialogue actually rang very true. The second problem is that critics are paid to be critical. No one wants to be the critic who says a movie is perfect, and so when presented with a visual masterwork like Avatar, the easy money is to rip apart the story and its dialogue. Was the story of Avatar perfect? No, but it also didn't spend a lot of time holding your hand either. You learn that the military presence is not actually the US military, but rather contracted forces, in one line. If you missed that line, tough. I love that. But two of the reviews I read complain that the story was rushed. You simply can't win with critics.

In the end, Avatar isn't perfect. It could have easily been longer, but I read somewhere that IMAX movies set a time limit, necessitating the two hours, forty minute total run time. I hope that a Director's Cut does emerge, a longer cut of the movie that does build on the story more. But to say it was rushed, or that the dialogue is awful, is taking things too far, and is one of the reasons why average moviegoers have, and will likely continue, to ignore movie critics.

5 More Things About Mike Cameron

The Boston Globe ran a piece this morning entitled "Five Things About Mike Cameron." Here's five more:

1. The Sox will be Cameron's seventh Major League team and 2010 his 16th Major League season. The Sox will be his first American League team since 2003, when he finished a four-year stint with the Seattle Mariners. Aside from Jason Varitek, Cameron is now the Red Sox's oldest player as of today.

2. Cameron is remarkably consistent offensively. His EqA has been between .270 and .293 in each of the past 11 seasons.

3. August has generally been his best month, but September has been his worst. Looking at his OPS by month, we can see that he starts off medium in March/April, with a .771 OPS. From May-July, his OPS is about the same each month - .799 in May, .787 in June and .796 in July. In August however, it shoots up to .840 before shooting down to .724. The September swoon has been a particular issue recently for Cameron. Since Cameron became a regular in '97, he has played in 12 September's, missing only 2005 after his frightful collision with Carlos Beltran. Breaking up those 12 years into six-year blocks, we can see the following negative trend about his September performance:

Years Sept OPS
1997-2002: .815
2003-2009: .657

A .657 OPS is unlikely to cut during the pennant race that the Sox figure to be in next season, but keep in mind Cameron has played 92% of his career in center field and all but 10 of the remaining 149 games in right field. It is unlikely he will be asked to do that for the Sox, and it is also unlikely that he will play every day.

4. The Globe alluded to the fact that Cameron is productive despite not hitting for a high average. One of the reasons he does not hit for a high average is his strikeout totals. Cameron is 11th all-time in strikeouts, and second among active players to Jim Thome, and Thome may retire this offseason. But that's not necessarily a bad thing. The next four names behind him on the active player leader board are Ken Griffey, Jr., Manny Ramirez, Carlos Delgado and Alex Rodriguez. While Cameron doesn't have their offensive pedigree, he is no scrub. He is currently 33rd all-time in home runs, with 265.

5. While their actual dollar values should be taken with a grain of salt, Fan Graphs had Cameron ranked as the 40th most valuable position player in the Majors last year, and 57th overall. On the Red Sox, only Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez and J.D. Drew ranked higher.

Is Tom Brady Over The Hill?

Last night's New England at New Orleans game was an out-an-out drubbing. And while Drew Brees and his merry band of men were outstanding last night, part of the reason is the incredibly poor play from Tom Brady. It was a rare game where Brady was bad both visually and statistically. He was perpetually throwing off his back foot, and once the Saints took the lead, the play-calling was woefully predictable. When a street free agent like Mike McKenzie can consistently jump routes, it's a sign that either the play-calling is predictable or the quarterback is telegraphing his throws. Neither of those options are good.

Looking for solace, I turned to Brady's pro-football-reference.com game log to see if this was Brady's worst regular season game. I ended up feeling even more depressed. Using QB rating as the judge, last night's game was Brady's tenth worst game overall, but since one of those was his pro debut, when he went one-for-three as a backup in 2000 against Detroit. Another one was the final game of the 2005 season, when the Pats had already clinched a playoff berth, and Brady started the game against the Dolphins but gave way to Matt Cassel after eight passing attempts, so we won't count that game either. So we can safely say that last night was Brady's eighth worst regular season performance ever. So while it is troubling in and of itself that Brady had seven worse regular season starts, the distribution of these abysmal starts is perhaps even more troubling. Breaking these into two season chunks of Brady's career, we can see the following negative trend:

Games 2-32: Three of the worst games
Games 33-64: Zero
Games 65-96: Two
Games 97-124: Three

To recap, five of Brady's worst eight starts have come in the second half of his career. Brady is now 32 years old. How many QB's can be consistent week in and week out when they're 32, when they've started 120+ games in the NFL. A lot was made of the fact that Brady passed Bledsoe in passing yards last night, and that he did it in the same number of games as did Bledsoe. What was left unsaid in that statement was how Bledsoe's career tailed off after he left the Pats. He was good that first year in Buffalo, posting a QB rating of 86.0, with a completion percentage of 61.5% and 24 TDs against 15 INTs for an 8-8 Buffalo squad. In the four years after 2002, Bledsoe had an average QB rating of 75.6, and never completed better than 60.1% of his passes.

Now, am I saying that Tom Brady is washed up right this second? Of course not, he just had four straight weeks of 300+ yards passing. But his body type is very similar to Drew Bledsoe's, and his lack of mobility was one of the reasons why he was a sixth round draft pick in the first place. There have been two teams that have blitzed the Pats successfully this year - the Jets and the Saints. In both games, Brady repeatedly threw off his back foot or threw to his first read. In the Jets game, the generally accepted notion (I am guilty here as well) was that Tom Terrific was shaking off the rust. But the same Brady that was seen in the Jets game - which not coincidentally was his seventh worst regular season start - was seen last night. I think it is now fair game to question whether or not Brady is over the hill. I'm not saying definitively that he is, but last night's game certainly wasn't encouraging.