I liked coming up with five facts about Mike Cameron so much, that I thought I'd do the same thing about John Lackey as well.
1. Lackey is 31st among active pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings, but look a little further and it becomes even better. Four of the pitchers that are ahead of Lackey are relievers - Trevor Hoffman, Arthur Rhodes, Mariano Rivera and Tom Gordon. There are also three pitchers who have been starters in their career, but will not be starters in the 2010 season - Kerry Wood, Kelvim Escobar and Chan Ho Park. Five more pitchers are Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Jason Schmidt and Matt Clement, who may be considered either only semi-active or not active at all. Clement for instance has not pitched since 2006. Finally, there is Oliver Perez, who posted a 6.82 ERA last year and whose role with the Mets going forward is less than clear. Take out those pitchers and you are left with Lackey as 18th among active pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings.
2. Last season, Lackey ranked 26th in the Majors in terms of FIP, with a mark of 3.73, .10 better than his real ERA of 3.83. He played behind a slightly below average defense last year in Anaheim according to Baseball Prospectus' defensive efficiency, which accounts for why his FIP is only slightly lower than his real ERA. Expect that to change in 2009 with the Sox, as the defense behind Lackey should be better than it was last year at the key spots where Anaheim struggled. Gary Matthews, who played 91 games last season, had an FRAA of -16 last year. Jeremy Hermida, who is likely going to be in the same role as Matthews was last year - at least in terms of playing time - had a +3 FRAA last year in a bigger outfield in Florida. As for the other Sox outfielders? J.D. Drew and Mike Cameron scored +4, and while Jacoby Ellsbury was a -11, he a) should only get better as he gets more playing time and b) may have seen a one-year blip in his mark, as he was +16 in 2008. Another major difference should be at shortstop. Last year, Erick Aybar had a -2 FRAA, and Maicer Izturis a -8. Marco Scutaro on the other hand, had a FRAA of +8, more than one-win difference.
3. One potential problem for Lackey could be home runs. For his career, 35% of his balls in play have been fly balls, but his career HR/fly ball percentage is a small 9.3, not surprising since he played in a large park in Anaheim, and routinely got to pitch in the caverns that are Safeco Field and whatever it is they're calling Oakland's ballpark these days. That could change in Fenway. While it's difficult to take his Fenway starts too seriously, since he was playing good Red Sox teams, but he has allowed eight home runs in 51.2 career innings at Fenway, good for 1.4 HR/9 innings, or 0.5 higher than his career mark.
4. Of the other five current Red Sox starters - Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield - Lackey throws his fastball (62.2% of the time) only less frequently than Beckett (65.9%), but also at a slower velocity (91.1 MPH) than everyone except for Wakefield (74.5). Lackey also throws his curve ball more frequently than any other current Sox starter - 23% of the time. Beckett, Buchholz and Lester's curve balls range from 16.1-20.8%, while Matsuzaka and Wakefield are in the 4.2-5.2% range.
5. For his career, Lackey shows virtually no second-half split - 3.83 ERA in the first half compared with 3.79 in the second. However, looking just at the past four seasons, he has been a much better first half pitcher, with a 3.18 ERA in the first-half compared with 3.83 in the second half, and that is taking into account how much trouble he had last year, when he struggled when he came back from his injury when he came back in mid-May. From 2006 to 2008, he posted first-half ERAs of 2.88, 2.91 and 2.46. Unfortunately, in those years he also posted second-half ERAs of 4.41, 3.14 and 4.99.
Next up: Marco Scutaro
1. Lackey is 31st among active pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings, but look a little further and it becomes even better. Four of the pitchers that are ahead of Lackey are relievers - Trevor Hoffman, Arthur Rhodes, Mariano Rivera and Tom Gordon. There are also three pitchers who have been starters in their career, but will not be starters in the 2010 season - Kerry Wood, Kelvim Escobar and Chan Ho Park. Five more pitchers are Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Jason Schmidt and Matt Clement, who may be considered either only semi-active or not active at all. Clement for instance has not pitched since 2006. Finally, there is Oliver Perez, who posted a 6.82 ERA last year and whose role with the Mets going forward is less than clear. Take out those pitchers and you are left with Lackey as 18th among active pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings.
2. Last season, Lackey ranked 26th in the Majors in terms of FIP, with a mark of 3.73, .10 better than his real ERA of 3.83. He played behind a slightly below average defense last year in Anaheim according to Baseball Prospectus' defensive efficiency, which accounts for why his FIP is only slightly lower than his real ERA. Expect that to change in 2009 with the Sox, as the defense behind Lackey should be better than it was last year at the key spots where Anaheim struggled. Gary Matthews, who played 91 games last season, had an FRAA of -16 last year. Jeremy Hermida, who is likely going to be in the same role as Matthews was last year - at least in terms of playing time - had a +3 FRAA last year in a bigger outfield in Florida. As for the other Sox outfielders? J.D. Drew and Mike Cameron scored +4, and while Jacoby Ellsbury was a -11, he a) should only get better as he gets more playing time and b) may have seen a one-year blip in his mark, as he was +16 in 2008. Another major difference should be at shortstop. Last year, Erick Aybar had a -2 FRAA, and Maicer Izturis a -8. Marco Scutaro on the other hand, had a FRAA of +8, more than one-win difference.
3. One potential problem for Lackey could be home runs. For his career, 35% of his balls in play have been fly balls, but his career HR/fly ball percentage is a small 9.3, not surprising since he played in a large park in Anaheim, and routinely got to pitch in the caverns that are Safeco Field and whatever it is they're calling Oakland's ballpark these days. That could change in Fenway. While it's difficult to take his Fenway starts too seriously, since he was playing good Red Sox teams, but he has allowed eight home runs in 51.2 career innings at Fenway, good for 1.4 HR/9 innings, or 0.5 higher than his career mark.
4. Of the other five current Red Sox starters - Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield - Lackey throws his fastball (62.2% of the time) only less frequently than Beckett (65.9%), but also at a slower velocity (91.1 MPH) than everyone except for Wakefield (74.5). Lackey also throws his curve ball more frequently than any other current Sox starter - 23% of the time. Beckett, Buchholz and Lester's curve balls range from 16.1-20.8%, while Matsuzaka and Wakefield are in the 4.2-5.2% range.
5. For his career, Lackey shows virtually no second-half split - 3.83 ERA in the first half compared with 3.79 in the second. However, looking just at the past four seasons, he has been a much better first half pitcher, with a 3.18 ERA in the first-half compared with 3.83 in the second half, and that is taking into account how much trouble he had last year, when he struggled when he came back from his injury when he came back in mid-May. From 2006 to 2008, he posted first-half ERAs of 2.88, 2.91 and 2.46. Unfortunately, in those years he also posted second-half ERAs of 4.41, 3.14 and 4.99.
Next up: Marco Scutaro
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