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Just going to leave this here for posterity.

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2013 MLB Regular Season Predictions

Just putting these here for posterity (you can also see part of these predictions and awards picks at FanGraphs here). Maybe I'll go into more detail on them at a later time, but more likely I won't.

AL EAST
TB, 88-74
TOR, 87-75
BOS, 83-79
NYY, 82-80
BAL, 78-84

AL CENTRAL
DET, 93-69
CHW, 86-76
CLE, 76-86
KC, 74-88
MIN, 61-101

AL WEST
TEX, 93-69
LAA, 91-71 * Wild Card
OAK, 89-73 * Wild Card
SEA, 71-91
HOU, 63-99

NL EAST
WAS, 94-68
ATL, 91-71 * Wild Card
PHI, 74-88
NYM, 67-95
MIA, 59-103

NL CENTRAL
STL, 88-74
CIN, 87-75
PIT, 82-80
MIL, 81-81
CHC, 72-90

NL WEST
SF, 89-73
SD, 88-74 * Wild Card
LAD, 86-76
ARI, 83-79
COL, 74-88

Real quick thoughts: Really could see any team winning the AL East...the White Sox are perpetually the hardest team to figure out, but I like their pitching...I'm not as high on the Angels as most, probably, and higher on the A's than most. Again, the gap is closed by the A's pitching...I don't think the gap between Washington and Atlanta has increased that much...I'm not sold on the changes in Cincy. If Choo can't play center they may be in big trouble, and I'd be very surprised if they have the same starting pitching health that they had last year...Pittsburgh finally gets their above-.500 season...the NL West seems almost as open as the AL East to me, although I can't picture a scenario where the Rockies win the division...Padres are clearly my surprise team. If they get any pitching, watch out.

2012 MLB Season Predictions

Earlier today (or yesterday by the time this posts), the FanGraphs' staff predictions hit the interwebs. Since those were just the basics, here are the rest.

AL East	W	L	PCT
NYY	94	68	0.580
TB	92	70	0.568
BOS	88	74	0.543
TOR	88	74	0.543
BAL	60	102	0.370

About the Red Sox -- I really see this team as having a depth problem, particularly on the pitching staff. We are already seeing this with the Andrew Bailey injury, but even before that it was going to be an issue. Clay Buchholz had a bad back injury last year, and we can't know if he'll make it through a full season healthy. And that's not counting the untested Daniel Bard and Felix Doubront starting. I wasn't in the minority in leaving them out of the playoffs -- 12 of the 20 FG people left them out.

AL Cent	W	L	PCT
DET	91	71	0.562
CLE	83	79	0.512
KC	78	84	0.481
MIN	70	92	0.432
CHW	65	97	0.401

This division leaves a lot to be desired. If Kansas City can land the right pitcher for the front of their rotation, next year could be the year they take over the division for a long time. But this season, it will still be Detroit atop the division. But even with Fielder, they will be a bad champion, with a horrible defensive infield.

AL West	W	L	PCT
TEX	96	66	0.593
LAA	92	70	0.568
SEA	75	87	0.463
OAK	68	94	0.420

I think this will finally be Texas' year, although I may have said the same thing last year. Anaheim claims one of the two Wild Cards along with Tampa.

Tampa will win the play-in game, and then fall to the Yankees in the Division Series. In the other Division Series, Texas will beat Detroit. That will set up a Texas-Yankees ALCS for the second time in three seasons, with the same result. I was one of six FG folks to put them in the World Series.

NL East	W	L	PCT
WAS	90	72	0.556
ATL	87	75	0.537
MIA	86	76	0.531
PHI	85	77	0.525
NYM	68	94	0.420

Here is my sleeper. I like the Nats a great deal this season. They have an improved rotation, a deep bullpen, and while Mike Morse should regress some, Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman should bounce back nicely. This division is chock full of talent though, so it won't be easy, and really any team from one-through-four could come out on top. But I think this is the year that the Phillies fall apart. And while Miami should be better, I think Atlanta has enough starting pitching depth to put them over the top and into one of the Wild Card spots. I was one of just two FG people (Zach Sanders being the other) to pick Washington for the division, and one of just eight to pick Atlanta to reach the postseason at all.

NL Cent	W	L	PCT
STL	89	73	0.549
CIN	87	75	0.537
MIL	83	79	0.512
CHC	75	89	0.451
PIT	71	91	0.438
HOU	56	106	0.346

As we saw tonight, the Cardinals are still going to be a formidable team. I detailed it on Monday in my first ESPN Insider piece (check back for one every Monday), but they are very deep in all three phases -- lineup, rotation and bullpen. I would love to pick the Reds to win the division, but I just don't trust Dusty Baker. I don't see why Bronson Arroyo is still on that squad. I could see the Cubs at better than 75 wins, but at this time, I don't see where their extra wins would come from, so I'll stand on 75. I was one of just six FG people to take St. Louis to win the Central, and one of five to slot Cincy for a Wild Card berth.

NL West	W	L	PCT
ARI	93	69	0.574
LAD	85	77	0.525
SF	83	79	0.512
COL	78	84	0.481
SD	74	88	0.457

Arizona has a wealth of pitching, and could be even better this year. What's more, they're a fun team to watch, which is a plus. As for the Giants, I just don't believe in their offense, at all. The Dodgers' offense won't be much better, but I expect the Kemp-Ethier duo to be better than Sandoval-Posey. And I also think the Dodgers will play better defense.

Atlanta takes the Wild Card play-in, loses to Arizona in the DS, and St. Louis takes down Washington in the other DS. In the LCS, Arizona bests St. Louis, setting up an incredibly entertaining D-backs-Rangers World Series.

I think that my favorite part of doing these picks was realizing that there really is no obvious favorite, and that was borne out in the FanGraphs' picks.

Happy Opening Day everyone. It's going to be a great year.

Who Could Use Manny Ramirez?

We've seen this before. The last time Manny Ramirez was a free agent, his agent Scott Boras dragged out the process until March, before Ramirez resigned with the Dodgers. At the time, he was coming off a torrid second half after joining the Dodgers, and parlayed that into a two-year, $40 million deal. Since then, Manny has seemingly been in decline. However, had he accumulated enough plate appearances to qualify for leader boards last year, Ramirez's .409 OBP would have ranked fifth in the Majors, behind only Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. In case you forgot, these were the top two finishers in each league's MVP race last season. By advanced metrics, he did well also - a .330 TAv with the Dodgers, and a .286 mark in limited action with the White Sox. His wOBA of .382 ranked 23rd in the Majors (minimum 300 PAs). The power might not be where it once was, but Ramirez still gets on base at an extraordinary clip. And his on-base numbers weren't overly inflated by intentional walks, as he only had four last year. Bottom line, a lot of teams could use Ramirez's on-base prowess, and if his power comes back at all, he could easily be a steal on a one-year, $10 million, two year, $25 million type deal.

But while there are plenty of teams that could use him, like the Giants for instance, there aren't a lot of teams that can conceivably fit him on their roster. For instance, the Giants outfield already has Mark DeRosa, Pat Burrell, Cody Ross, Andres Torres and Aaron Rowand, so they probably aren't going to be in on Ramirez. Here are the teams that could use his bat and have room for him, from worst fit to best fit:

10. Atlanta: Atlanta still needs a bat, but it's not obvious where the fit is here. The one opening is center field, as Nate McLouth shouldn't be handed a job at this point. But moving Heyward or Prado to center is a tricky proposition. You could stick Ramirez at first as well, but then that's blocking Freddie Freeman. Not the end of the world certainly, but then again, Ramirez has never played first.
9. Chicago Cubs: Kosuke Fukudome was actually been a poor man's version of Ramirez's 2010 season offensively, but with better defense, so the fit here isn't tremendous. But it's the kind of situation you could see Ramirez thriving in, and it's the kind of deal you could see Jim
8. San Diego: Will Venable probably shouldn't be handed the right field job. The Pads could easily slide Ryan Ludwick from left field to right, and plug Ramirez in. I have San Diego ranked a little lower since they are less likely to contend this season given the trade of Adrian Gonzalez, though I love how the Pads have remade their up the middle positions this winter. In fact, look for an article on that soon.
7. Colorado: The Rockies spent the last two months of the season claiming Seth Smith didn't deserve a starting job, and Ryan Spilborghs has certainly shown himself not capable of holding down a starting job. The Rockies also went out and signed Ty Wigginton this offseason, but Wigginton, to be polite, is not the answer there either. So the Rockies do have an outfield hole. The Rox could easily slide Gonzalez over to right field and plug Ramirez into left. But file that under "probably won't happen."
6. Tampa Bay: Matt Joyce at DH is probably fine. Desmond Jennings in LF is probably fine. Sean Rodriguez at second base is probably fine, thereby lessening the need for Ben Zobrist to log infield duty. But if the Rays want to protect any of those players, Ramirez and his .623 career SLG at Tropicana Field would fit well there.
5. Philadelphia: The Phillies are clearly pushing all in this season. So it really doesn't make a lot of sense that they will have an ancient Raul Ibanez in one outfield corner and a rookie (Dominic Brown) in the other. And since both hit left-handed, Ramirez would make a perfect platoon partner.
4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Their listed DH's are Mike Napoli and Howie Kendrick, who ostensibly have other positions. Peter Bourjos dominated Triple-A last season, but his 193 Major League PA's were uninspiring to say the least, so he may not be ready to handle center full-time, which would push Torrii Hunter back to the middle. Couple that with the fact that the Angels have been left out in the cold this winter, and they may start to feel pressure to do something here. That something really should be Adrian Beltre, but the Halos have so little offense that they have room for both. Originally, I had Anaheim first, but I bumped them back to fourth due to Juan Rivera, who lessens Ramirez's outfield value to the Halos.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers could actually use Ramirez back at Chavez Ravine, unless they really are planning on running out Jay Gibbons and Tony Gwynn, Jr. in left field in 2011.
2. Texas: This is probably my favorite fit. I realize the Rangers just played this game with Vlad The Impaler last season, but even with his balky hamstrings, Ramirez is more mobile than Guerrero was, making him less of an albatross in games in National League parks, or just when other guys need a day off. With Josh Hamilton still more than capable of manning center field, Ramirez and David Murphy could trade off playing left and DH'ing, with Julio Borbon getting fill-in starts in center when Hamilton needs a breather.
1. Detroit: Brennan Boesch is not the answer in left field, nor is Ryan Raburn. The Tigers have spent some coin this offseason, but are still an underdog to the White Sox, and perhaps to the Twins as well, depending on how Justin Morneau comes back. On days that Ramirez needed to rest his legs, you could let him DH, give Boesch or Raburn a spot start, and slide Victor Martinez back behind the dish. A lineup core of Cabrera, Martinez, Ramirez and Magglio Ordonez would be pretty tasty, and would rival what the White Sox are putting on the field.

So there you have it - ten teams that could use Manny Ramirez this offseason. Who will it be? Hopefully, this time we find out before March.

Bobby Jenks

Since leaving the Rockies organization to embark on my new venture as stay-at-home dad/freelance writer, I've been in a frenzy trying to line up things to do with my son as well as possible gigs, and I really need to write up how that all came to fruition, which I will attempt to do soon. But in the interim, I haven't been paying rapt attention to my Twitter feed, so I'm a little behind on who has and has not been tendered. But one name that caught my attention this afternoon was Bobby Jenks.

Jenks seems to have fallen into the arbitration trap that teams so frequently face. He was clearly going to get a raise based on his season last year - he had enough innings pitched, and had 27+ saves for a fifth consecutive season. No matter what your opinion of his true value is, in arbitration you can only use the facts of the situation, and for relievers, the two most important factors are service time/playing time and role (closer, set-up, middle, mop-up). Jenks was going to get a raise.

Chicago didn't need to pay for that. Reports already have Matt Thornton listed as his possible successor, and Ozzie Guillen and Don Cooper have always built strong bullpens. The $9-10 million Jenks would have cost them in arbitration is probably best served being spent elsewhere, especially if Paul Konerko really does want to live closer to home in Arizona (or if they need that money for Adam Dunn). But this doesn't mean that Jenks can't be an effective reliever somewhere else at a lower price.

Looking at Jenks 2010 season, he didn't rank well in metrics like WXRL, WARP, VORP, or fWAR. His walk rate was up, and his ERA+ of 99 was a career low, and he is now two years removed from what looks like a two year peak - he had WARP's of 4.9 and 3.9 in '07 and '08, nothing higher than 2.1 in any other year. But there are also a lot of positive indicators for Jenks going forward.

For starters, he will only be 30 years old next season and has saved 27+ games in one of the largest markets in the country. There are a number of others. Let's do this bullet point style:

- His BABIP last year was .368, which was easily a career high. Looking at his batted ball data however, this scream fluke - as his line drive rate wasn't significantly higher than in any other year, and his ground ball rate was up while his fly ball rate was down. Generally, that would be a recipe for a lower BABIP. For whatever reason, his balls found holes last year. This could be related to the fact that Jenks for the first time started mixing in a changeup last year - 6.5% of the time. But his average fastball velocity didn't dip it wouldn't seem on the surface that he worked in the change up to cover for a lack of pop in his heater.
- His K/9 and K/BB rates were each the second best rates of his career.
- He only allowed three home runs despite playing in a homeriffic ballpark, and 2 of them came at the hands of the Blue Jays, who in case you hadn't heard, hit a lot of home runs last year.
- His xFIP of 2.62 was the lowest of his career and his FIP of 2.59 was only .03 off his career high ('07).

Is Bobby Jenks worth a 3 year, $22 million deal? Maybe not, but for the right price, he could absolutely be an asset for someone next season. As an aside, I also wonder if he is a victim of the hot stove's new sped-up timeline. Probably not, as he wasn't going to be worth $9-10 million this week or two weeks from now, but perhaps the quicker deadlines were a factor, if not for him, for other tender/non-tender candidates. Finally, does Jenks being on the market reduce what is seemingly already a thin trade market for Jonathan Papelbon? I would certainly think so.

Last note - looking into a new blog site. Wordpress was recommended to me. Drop me a line on Twitter - @Swydan - if you have another suggestion. Thanks!

LCS Preview

I was too tired when I got home last night, and am about to head out for the weekend. So here it is - the short, short version.

C.J. Wilson walked the most batters in the AL this year, and was only second in the Majors behind Jonathan Sanchez. The Yankees draw a lot of walks. I realize he just shut down the Rays, another team that draws a lot of walks, but the Yanks also hit lefties much better than the Rays did this season (.790 OPS compared to .733 for Tampa). Expect the Yanks to take Game One. Tommy Hunter was great at home this year, and had even splits against teams below and above .500, but he is still the inferior pitcher in his matchup against Phil Hughes. Expect perhaps not a pitchers duel, but a close game, and the Yanks to prevail.

In all, I see the Rangers winning only Cliff Lee's start, and for this series to end in New York. Yankees in five.

The Giants scored 11 runs in four games. Two were directly attributable to umpire error (Buster Posey's "steal" in game one and the ump completely whiffing on Omar Infante's foot being on the second base bag in game four) and two were directly attributable to Brooks Conrad's shoddy defense. Unfortunately for San Fran, the umpire calls won't go in their favor 100% of the time and Brooks Conrad was not traded to Philly in the last couple of days. Now, one could make the argument that late in games, Bruce Bochy willingly sacrificed some offense by subbing out Pat Burrell for Nate Schierholtz and Aubrey Huff for Travis Ishikawa. The Giants may find themselves needing that offense in this series, and may keep those two bats in the lineup all game, which could lead to more runs on the board for San Fran. But it will also greatly increase the chance that they make defensive miscues, making the net effect a wash. Phillies in five.

With the two series' likely to end early, expect a lot of media blather to revolve around the off-days between the LCS and the World Series. I'll be back with a more in-depth preview for the first Fall Classic rematch since the Yankees beat the Los Angeles Dodgers back-to-back in '77 and '78.

Three Aces, Two Fives & A Four

To gear up for the season, the Denver Nuggets have been once again running ads with the tag line "Can You Feel It?" And while Nuggets basketball is probably dead in the water once again, as the question of trading of Carmelo Anthony seems to have shifted from "if" to "when," I am definitely feeling the MLB playoffs. While last year's World Series participants made it back this season, the only other returning team from last October's scrum are the Minnesota Twins. And even if the Fall Classic should end in a rematch of last year, that would be alright, as it was a highly entertaining one.

I will do a full recap as to how my prognostications went overall, but it should be noted that I nailed five of the eight playoff participants this season, missing only Cincinnati, San Francisco and Tampa Bay (you could also demerit me for the fact that I had the Yankees as the AL East champ rather than the Wild Card team, but seeing as how that race went down to the last day of the season, that seems like it'd be splitting hairs). Back in April, I refrained from making postseason predictions, since it's such a crapshoot, and I will continue that trend here by simply going round by round for the playoffs.

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Looking at Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Standings, this is the second-closest series in terms of W3 and L3 (the closest, surprisingly, is Cincinnati-Philadelphia), but these two teams are really mirror images of each other. Both have a left-handed ace, both have good but not great rotations, both teams have an outstanding bullpen, both teams run well and flash good leather, both teams have a somewhat top-heavy lineup and both teams have a MVP candidate who was banged up down the stretch.

The key to this series very well may be James Shields. Since his seemingly breakthrough season of 2008, Shields has been a bit perplexing. On the plus side, his strikeout rate has improved dramatically, particularly this season, as his K/9 has jumped from 6.7 in '08, to 6.8 last year and then a big jump to 8.3 this season. At the same time, his walk rate and hit rate have both increased. Shields has never been a ground ball pitcher, and while his GB/FB ratio has decreased from .87 in '08 to .70 this year, and he led the AL in home runs allowed, was his performance entirely his fault? No doubt where there's smoke there's fire, but Shields' BABIP against this season was .344. Overall, the Rays BABIP was .282, a 62 point difference. Shields put less balls in play this season, but the ones that were put in play fell with greater regularity. Is that a fluke, or was Shields just that hittable? The answer to this question could be the key to the series. By FanGraphs' WAR, the Rangers have a clear edge in the pitching matchups - more than 2 wins difference in four of the five potential matchups. As good as David Price is, asking him to beat Cliff Lee twice is a tall task. Therefore, the rest of the Rays rotation will have to pick up the slack. Matt Garza is always solid, and you never know when he has a gem in him, as evidenced by this year's no-hitter or his dominating wins in the 2008 ALCS vs. the Red Sox (2 runs allowed in 13 innings pitched). Wade Davis has the luxury of pitching in the only equal matchup of the series vs. Tommy Hunter (0.8 fWAR for Davis, 0.7 for Hunter). That leaves Shields. He is at a disadvantage in both his matchup, and the Rays stand a good chance at being down 1-0 in the series when he walks to the hill Thursday afternoon.

Even in the Lee vs. Price matchup, I look for this series to be high scoring, and highly entertaining. I say matchup instead of matchups because despite the similarities between these two teams, I don't expect this series to go the full five games. Rangers in four.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Since the advent of Wild Card play in 1995, more of the first-round series' have ended in a sweep than anything else, and the only year that did not have a first round sweep was 2003. In two of the last three years, this has drawn even more attention, as in those seasons three of the four first-round matchups ended in sweeps, and there hasn't been a five-game series since the Yankees took the Angels to the limit. This season will be a lot more entertaining, but there will still be one sweep, and it will be in this series.

By Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Standings W3 and L3 numbers, this is the closest series, as the Phillies' W3-L3 is 89.6-72.6, while the Reds' marks are 88.8-73.2, less than a win's difference. While the Phillies won 97 games, BP shows that seven of those wins were lucky or undeserving. So on the surface, this would seem to be an intriguing matchup. After all, Cincy has arguably the game's best offense - the Reds rank first in the Majors in team MLVr and first in the NL in team wOBA, and MVP candidate Joey Votto actually performed better on the road than at home this season. But looking a little closer at Philly's starting pitching, and the disparity grows much wider:

Philly Starters..........GS...IP......ERA
Halladay-Oswalt-Hamels...78...541.....2.74
Everyone Else............84...494.3...4.62

The "Everyone Else" includes 31 starts from Kyle Kendrick, 28 from Joe Blanton, 19 from Jamie Moyer, 3 from JA Happ, 2 from Vance Worley and 1 from Nelson Figueroa, none of whom are likely to take the mound in the Division Series. But what about Philly's pen? Well, despite its reputation, it actually ranked 12th among WXRL, four spots ahead of Cincy. And while there's an argument that a full season of Aroldis Chapman would even the bullpens out a bit, it wouldn't do anything more than bring the respective bullpens to a draw. And while the Reds offense is fearsome, the Phillies aren't exactly slouches, and they will get to play the first two in Citizens Bank Park, where they won 54 of 84 games this season (only the Atlanta Braves had more home wins than Philly in 2010). Phillies in three.

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins

The Twins are the Energizer Rabbit of Major League Baseball. They lose their closer before Opening Day, and it doesn't slow them down, their WXRL of 9.162 was sixth best in the Majors this season. They lose Justin Morneau, one of their three superstars who was leading them in OBP (among other things) in early July, and then string together their best month of OBP of the season that month (.367 as a team). The team did start to wear down offensively in September, but Joe Mauer and Jim Thome both missed time. Assuming Mauer and Thome are back in form for the postseason, the offense, may be able to convert hits into runs. Last postseason, against these same Yankees, the Twinkies piled up 29 hits in three games, but they only translated into six runs. This season, the team OBP has actually been slightly worse overall, but that is due mostly to the fact that Joe Mauer "cooled" off from his historic .444 mark of 2009 to a less world-beating .402 this season. Looking at the whole team though, it can be shown that the gaps have narrowed. Last postseason, the Twins' six and seven-hole hitters (Delmon Young in the six, Brendan Harris and Carlos Gomez in the seven) who had OBP's of .310 or less. Those two spots in the order accounted for 15 runners left on base in the three games, and none were more notable than the failed top of the 11th rally in game two, when Young came up with the bases loaded and no outs, and lined out to first on the first pitch he saw. On the next pitch, Gomez grounded out 3-2, and Harris (who had subbed in to the eight hole that night) popped a fly ball to center, killing the rally. Four pitches later, Mark Teixeira would slam a walk-off homer, and the Twins wouldn't recover. This season, Young's play has improved, and the Twins don't have a qualifying hitter with an OBP under .320. This better balance should lead to base runners converting into runs scored more frequently.

The other wrinkle in this series is how the Yankees plan to use their starters. The plan of bringing CC Sabathia back on three days rest for game four seems shortsighted at best. Nick Blackburn, the Twins' scheduled game four starter, was likely to be on the short end of the matchup whether it was AJ Burnett or Sabathia pitching, but moving Sabathia to game four means that Pettitte would have to pitch game five, where he will be a severe underdog against Francisco Liriano. Pettitte is normally cool under pressure in the playoffs, but to say he limped to the finish line this season is a bit of an understatement. He has only three appearances since July 18, and in them he had a 6.75 ERA in 13.1 innings pitched. Pettitte was enjoying a good season before his injury, but Liriano has been otherworldly this year.

I look for the whole team to win every game of this series, with Joe Girardi's Sabathia decision, and not an umpire's blown call, being the issue talked about throughout the hot stove season. Twins in five.

Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants

As much as the Texas-Tampa series could hinge on James Shields' performance, the Atlanta-San Francisco series most definitely is riding on Derek Lowe's shoulders. This is likely music to Giants' fans ears, but they shouldn't be so quick to count their chickens. Over his career, Derek Lowe has made a habit of coming up big when it matters. He earned the win in all three series clinchers for the 2004 Boston Red Sox, pitching perhaps the greatest game in Red Sox history - game seven against the Yankees - allowing just one hit and one run across six innings. This would be remarkable in and of itself; that he did it on two days rest is phenomenal. In all, Lowe has appeared in the postseason 21 times - 17 times for the Sox and four times for the Dodgers. In these games, he has an ERA of 3.33 and a WHIP of 1.17. In short, Lowe is no slouch. Is he Tim Lincecum? Of course not. But the gap isn't as large as one might think. Lincecum's xFIP of 3.21 is better than Lowe's 3.65, but Lowe's mark isn't shabby. It was good for 15th this year among qualifying pitchers, ahead of Cy Young candidates like Ubaldo Jimenez, CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander. In fact, Lowe's mark tops the Braves' list, and is the second best mark among starters in the series. Here's how games two and three stack up:

Game 2: Tommy Hanson (4.04 xFIP) vs. Matt Cain (4.19)
Game 3: Tim Hudson (3.87) vs. Jonathan Sanchez (4.11)

Much is made of the Giants' vaunted rotation, but while they get the publicity, the Braves' trio is just as good, if not better, as a whole.

For the season, the Braves' had a better OBP than did the Giants, but that should even out due to the loss of both Chipper Jones and Martin Prado for Atlanta. However, that doesn't suddenly mean the Braves have no hitting. Jason Heyward, Brian McCann and Derrek Lee still form a very good middle of the order, and Nate McLouth came back in September looking very much like he did in 2009, hitting .273 with an .887 OPS for September/October. Add a dash of Omar Infante here, some clutch pinch-hitting from Eric Hinske there (he hit .298, with a .985 OPS in 54 plate appearances as a pinch-hitter this season) and you have the makings of an offense that Bobby Cox can wring out enough runs from to win.

In the other dugout, the Giants have a lot more decisions to make. Do they carry Aaron Rowand? What about Travis Ishikawa and Nate Schierholtz? The Giants need their defense, but the Braves have two lefty-killers for late in the game in Billy Wagner (.071 AVG allowed this season vs. lefties) and Jonny Venters (.198). Bruce Bochy has, by and large, done a good job this season. But the more decisions he has to make, the higher the probability of him screwing up a decision. This series features the biggest managerial mismatch of the first round, and at some point a Bochy decision is likely to cost the Giants a game.

These teams both feature good bullpens, good home field advantages, mediocre offenses and poor running games. The Giants flash the leather better than do the Braves, but with guys like Ishikawa and Schierholtz likely relegated to the bench in the vain search for more offense, the Giants are likely to give up that edge. No matter the outcome, this series is going to be a lot closer than the people penciling in a Giants sweep are ready to see. Braves in five.

So there you go - one series dominated by three aces, two series' that will go the distance, and a very entertaining four-game set for good measure. This scenario played out one other time, in 2002. That postseason ended with the first-ever World Series matchup of two Wild Card teams, with the Angels finally getting their championship after more than 40 years. We can only hope that this year's Fall Classic provides as much excitement.

MLB 2010, Part Two, MLB From A-Z

Baseball season is almost upon us once again. To celebrate, let's run through the 2010 Major League Baseball season from A-Z. Apologies up front for the different fonts and sizes, the computer is not cooperating tonight.

A is for Atlanta, who will make it back to the playoffs this season for the first time since 2005. They may not have the horses to win the whole thing, but one last hurrah from Chipper, the emergence of Jason Heyward and bounce back years from Nate McLouth and Derek Lowe will offset the loss of Javier Vazquez and the likely regression coming from Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson. And though they sort of botched the Rafael Soriano situation, the front line of their bullpen - if healthy - should still be more than solid.

B is for Borbon, as in Julio Borbon. Called up to the Majors last June, and for good last August, Borbon hit leadoff for the Rangers in 36 of their last 53 games. In most of those games, however, he either played left field or DH. Now, with Marlon Byrd off to Chicago, Borbon will be asked to hit lead off and play center. His ability to do that will go a long way towards determining how successful the Rangers are in 2010.

C is for Crisi-tunity! Homer Simpson coined this phrase when his daughter Lisa explained to her father that the Chinese believe use the same word for both crisis and opportunity. Major League Baseball seemingly has a crisis on their hands in the franchises of Kansas City and Pittsburgh. The Royals haven't made the playoffs since 1985 and the Pirates since 1992. The league has taken to exploring options this offseason to change competitive balance, but in my opinion, they are missing the boat. For far too long, teams like KC, Pittsburgh, Minnesota and Florida, among others, have treaded water because financially they knew that MLB's revenue sharing system would be the life preserver that would help them safely reach shore. The Pirates payroll has not been over $50 million since 2003, and KC didn't top $50 million for the first time until 2007. What's more, when KC does spend money, they're not spending it on the right players (see Guillen, Jose). I for one would like to see what would happen if that revenue sharing life preserver was ripped from their clutches. Without revenue sharing, these clubs would have to make a more honest effort to win or risk losing their fans forever. We know Pittsburgh will support a winner, and the Pirates used to have a tradition of excellence. I believe in the Royals and the fans of Kansas City as well, but the Royals tradition is not as storied as the Pirates or other long-standing teams. Yes, the boys in powder blue won the World Series in '85, but they have only been in KC since 1969, and they have only made the playoffs seven times in that time span. Perhaps another city would do a better job with the Royals than would KC. But no matter what the answers are, it's clear that MLB should start asking more questions.

D is for DeRosa, as in Mark DeRosa. He was the Giants' big offseason acquisition...and therein lies the problem. The Giants are still going to struggle to score runs. They just can't get out of their own way. They man who finished second on their team in OBP, Fred Lewis, is somehow no better than third at any spot on their depth chart, and they are going to play the human garbage disposal, aka Bengie Molina, instead of Buster Posey. I have them dropping from 8th overall in MLB last year to 14th this year.

E is for Evan, as in Evan Longoria. How many players are All-Stars and get MVP votes each of their first two years in the Majors? Not many. Longoria whacked 30+ homers for the first time in his career last year, and added his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards, and I'm sure they both look nice next to his Rookie of the Year trophy. With Carl Crawford potentially leaving after this season, and rumors about the Rays drastically cutting payroll next year as well, the pressure is on Longoria to put the Rays back in the playoffs in the hyper-competitive AL East.

F is for Fat Guys. The game is just a lot more fun with fat guys in it. Guys like Carlos Lee, Prince Fielder, Molina and Pablo Sandoval remind us all of a simpler time, when players didn't train year round and pizza and gummi bears were still plentiful in the clubhouse. Nowadays, agents have their own training facilities and everyone has their own specialized diets. God bless you, fat men (even if, like Molina, you suck). Who's your favorite fat guy?

G is for Gonzalez. Whether it's Adrian, Alex, Carlos, Gio or Mike, it seems like Gonzalez's are everywhere these days. We have Gonzalez's who manage (Fredi) and even with two of the most famous Gonzalez's (Juan and Luis) retired, there are still so many Gonzalez's that we are now importing them to Japan (i.e. Edgar)! As the Latinification of the game continues unabated, names like "Gonzalez," "Martinez" and "Rodriguez" are becoming just as prevalent as "Smith" and "Jones." And frankly, it's a beautiful thing.

H is for Hanley, as in Hanley Ramirez, the most under appreciated player in the game. Not many players can put up a 20-20 (homers and steals) season and hit .300, all while playing the toughest position on the field in shortstop. But Ramirez has done it three seasons in a row, and one of them was actually a 30-30 season. The knock on Ramirez used to be his defense, but he has improved dramatically there as well. In 2007, his UZR was -19.2, but in 'o8 he posted a basically even mark of -0.7, and followed that up last year with a -0.3. He may never be Ozzie Smith with the glove, but he has done enough to quell rumors of a position switch. When MVP voters once again get bored with voting for Albert Pujols, let's hope they turn to Hanley.

I is for Igloo, which is what the new Target Field in Minnesota might end up being nicknamed. Minneapolis is now the northernmost city (by latitude) to have an open-air-only ballpark. Their average April temperatures range from a low of 36 degrees to a high of 57, which is remarkably similar to Denver's April averages of 34 and 60. And while the Rockies definitely have to be creative to bring the crowds out in April, at least Rockies fans, and Colorado sports fans in general, are used to games outdoors. In Minnesota, everything is played indoors, and the Twins could be in for a rude awakening. For their sake, let's hope I'm wrong.

J is for Jeff, as in Jeff Moorad, who has to be one of the most fascinating men in the game today. He went from being a super-agent that negotiated $100 million-plus deals for the likes of Manny Ramirez, to the opposite side of the table as part-owner of the Diamondbacks, and now he has hopped teams within the team to the San Diego Padres. We need to know more about how this was possible.

K is for Kemp, as in Matt Kemp. With Manny Ramirez seemingly in decline, guys like Andre Ethier, James Loney, Russell Martin and Chad Billinglsey seemingly already hitting or at their peaks, and a future leader in Clayton Kershaw maybe not ready to be "the guy," the onus on the Dodgers now falls squarely on Kemp. Unfortunately for Dodgers fans, Kemp probably isn't up to that challenge. If you could date Rihanna, you probably wouldn't be up for it either...

L is for Lackey, as in John Lackey, the Red Sox's newest toy. Will he butt heads with fellow Texan Josh Beckett, or will they get along like the Texas tough boys that they are? And is Lackey enough to make Boston's new pitching and defense plan succeed? Probably, as long as he stays on the field.

M is for Mets, the one team that makes the Giants look like a bunch of Mensa scholars. This is a team, who even with Johan Santana and Frankie Rodriguez, managed to only have the 21st best ERA in the Majors last year, yet decided that heading into this season the only pitcher they needed to acquire was Fernando Nieve. Just...wow.

N is for Nyjer, as in Nyjer Morgan. In the past three seasons, the Nats center fielder of the "future" went from being Lastings Milledge, to Elijah Dukes, to Morgan. How long can Morgan hold the mantle before the Nats find another "solution?" Only time will tell. In the interim, Morgan figures to steal a boatload of bases.

O is for One hundred and two, which will be the number of seasons since the Cubs have won a World Series when they fail to do so once again this year. Hitler was right, the Cubs have quite the history of sucking!

P is for Prospects, of whom there will be many this season. Aside from Heyward and Stephen Strasburg, I am looking forward to seeing how Neftali Feliz and Justin Smoak can contribute to the Rangers chase, how Brian Matusz and Wade Davis handle the AL Beast. I am looking forward to guys like Junichi Tazawa and Eric Young, Jr. vying for permanent roles in the Majors, and to see if Austin Jackson can prove the Yankees wrong, if Andrew McCutchen is really the savior that Pittsburgh needs and if Mat Latos can be San Diego's replacement for Jake Peavy. And I'm just as excited to see what year two brings for guys like David Price (well, his second full year), Matt Wieters and Gordon Beckham. But most importantly, I'm looking forward to the next great unknown, the next big surprise, the next guy who gets called up as an injury replacement and never looks back. That's what makes baseball so great.

Q is for Quentin, as in Carlos Quentin. Two years ago, Quentin was busy mashing. He knocked 36 homers, and he wasn't a US Cellular mirage, as his .950 road OPS was more than comparable to his .979 home OPS in the cozy confines of the Cell. His performance paced the White Sox into the postseason, and he finished 5th in the MVP vote. Last year was essentially a lost year for Quentin, as injuries held him to 99 games and a disappointing .456 SLG. Unsurprisingly, the White Sox struggled to replace his bat in the lineup. Entering his age 27 season, this will be Quentin's defining season. Can he finally shake the whispers that he's too fragile, or will he succumb to injury once again (he has never played more than 130 games in any of his four big-league seasons)? South Siders are hoping for the former.

R is for Roy, as in Roy Halladay. If a pitcher can put a 3.19 ERA or better in four of the last five seasons in the American Beast, then what is he capable of in the National League? Unfortunately, it seems difficult to imagine that he could do that much better, and the projections bear that out. In fact, when one considers how dominating Cliff Lee was last year for Philly, Halladay will be hard pressed to anything other than equal that production. If he does so, the Phils will get a boost, as Halladay could make close to three times the number of starts for Philly than Lee did last season. But that boost will likely be less than Philly fans are anticipating.

S is for Seattle. The Mariners have been getting tons of hype heading into this season, but I'm not totally buying it. While some may say their Phthagorean W-L of 75-87 is an outlier because of their outstanding defense, it still shows how much trouble the M's had scoring runs last season. And despite the additions of Chone Figgins and Milton Bradley, they will struggle once again. Certainly, it would be hard to post worse offensive numbers than Wladimir Balentien and Yuniesky Betancourt, two guys who seemingly posted one point of OPS for each letter in their names. But then again, Jack Wilson is not a paragon of offensive production, swapping out Russell Branyan for Casey Kotchman is an offensive downgrade and this team is still going to hand a lot of important AB's to Ken Griffey, Jr. Also, Bradley hasn't played 130 or more games since 2004. Figgins should definitely help by setting the table, but the Mariners may struggle to drive him in once he gets there.

T is for Tulowitzki, as in Troy Tulowitzki. Tulowitzki is one big question away from superduper-stardom - can he get out of the gate strong? He is yet to have even a marginally good April, as his April OPS of .617 is more than 100 points lower than his OPS in any other month, and is more than 200 points lower than his career OPS. His idol, Derek Jeter, is so consistent, that his monthly OPS marks fall into a 62-point range. Tulowitzki's fall into a 312 point range. If he can change that, he'll pick up some more MVP votes, and will certainly make the Rockies a World Series contender.

U is for Upton's, as in B.J. and Justin. They are two of the most dynamic players in the game, although little brother seems as though he's well on his way to upstaging his big brother. Three of Justin's similar batters through age 21 are Hall of Famers - Hank Aaron, Sam Crawford and Willie Mays - and three others either should be or may be some day, in Miguel Cabrera, Juan Gonzalez and Ron Santo. Expect big things in his age 22 season. Meanwhile, B.J. is simply trying to get his career on track, finally. He has had two down years after his seeming-breakout of 2007, and to date, the only category in which he has led the league is caught stealing. Hopefully that will change.

V is for Votto, as in Joey Votto. Votto may not be the absolute key to the Reds success, as they have so many talented young players, but he is certainly one of their vital cogs. Votto had some personal issues last season, and it would be nice to see him overcome those this season.

W is for Wood, as in Brandon Wood. Like BJ Upton, Wood was once an uber-hyped prospect. Unlike Upton, Wood has never been given an extended chance at flashing that potential...until now. The Angels are banking that Wood can effectively replace Chone Figgins in the lineup, albeit in a different fashion. If Wood is able to replace him both offensively and defensively, it will go a long way towards keeping the Halo's in contention in 2010.

X is for X marks the spot. Here are my regular season predictions for 2010. I am going to refrain from making postseason predictions, because not only are they pointless, but they detract from my enjoyment of the season., as I root to be right rather than just enjoying the ride. When making these predictions, I like to look at league strength. After posting an average record of 82.6-79.4 in 2008, the American League dropped down more than one-half win to 81.9-80.1 last season. I continued that downward trend, giving AL teams an average record of 81.5-80.5, with the NL average being almost exactly opposite at 80.6-81.4.

Rank...Team...Record

1. NYY...97-65 - AL East champion
   
2. BOS...96-66 - AL Wild Card
   
3. PHI...95-67 - NL East champion
   
4. COL...94-68 - NL West champion
   
5. STL...92-70 - NL Central champion
   
6. TB...91-71
7. TEX...89-73 - AL West champion
   
8. ATL...88-74 - NL Wild Card
   
9. MIN...88-74 - AL Central champion
   
10. LAD...87-75
11. LAA...87-75
12. SEA...85-77
13. FLO...85-77
14. SF...84-78
15. CIN...82-80
16. OAK...81-81
17. ARI...80-82
18. MIL...79-83
19. CHC...79-83
20. CHW...78-84
21. DET...75-87
22. NYM...75-87
23. BAL...73-89
24. HOU...71-91
25. CLE...70-92
26. TOR...69-93
27. SD...69-93
28. PIT...65-97
29. WAS...64-98
30. KC...62-100

Just for fun, here are my awards picks (these are much less scientific):
AL MVP - Evan Longoria
NL MVP - Hanley Ramirez
AL Cy Young - Jon Lester
NL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum

I can't think of a good AL Rookie of the Year, but I'll take Heyward in the NL.

Y is for YOUUUUUUKKKKKKK (sorry, had to), and for the Yankees. Once again, the Yankees enter the season as the favorite. And once again, their lineup is balanced, and they have depth on the bench and in the 'pen. Brian Cashman has really done a fantastic job of building his roster 1-25 this year and last. Last year was the first time the Yanks outperformed their Pythagorean record by 5 or more games since '05, and it was because they finally got back to doing those typical "Yankee" things. Hopefully they revert to their '06-'08 ways this season, but I'm not holding my breath.

Z is for Zanadu (I know, I'm cheating a little, it's usually spelled with an X. Deal with it, it's late), which is where I feel I am now that it's baseball season. The best day all year (other than my wedding anniversary, and soon, my newborn's birthday) is Opening Day. Bud Selig's most eloquent phrase ever, and granted it's a short list, is that each season offers the "hope and faith" that your team can win. And that begins on Opening Day. Hot dogs. Beer. Baseball. Let's get it on.

MLB 2010, Part One

Before the start of each season, I like to look back at my projections and see how I did. In 2007, I had a pretty damn good year, picking 17 of the 30 teams within 5 games of their actual record, and finishing an average of only 6 games off for all teams. 2008? Not so much. It was a much worse season. So how did I do in 2009? In between, of course:

# Gms Off.....2007.....2008.....2009
0..................3...........2............3
1-5...............14..........6...........9
6-10.............7...........10.........9
11-15...........5............6...........5
16+..............1............6...........4
Avg Off........6.10.......9.93......8.07

On the positive end of the spectrum, I perfectly nailed my predictions for Boston (95 wins), Milwaukee (80) and Philadelphia (93). On the negative end, I completely blew predictions for Kansas City (81 wins projected, they actually won 65), Detroit (65-86), Cleveland (87-65) and the New York Mets (94-70). While I can fall back on the old injury excuse with the Mets, I did a very poor job of reading the AL Central last year. In fact, the AL Central has proven to be my most challenging division:

Avg # Games Off, 2007-2009
AL East...6.53
NL Cent...7.13
AL West...7.67
NL West...8.33
NL East...8.73
AL Cent...9.80

My AL Central predictions have been more than a game worse than any other division. What makes that figure even worse is the fact that 2 of my 8 perfect predictions were the Royals in 2007 and 2008.

But individually, the team I have had the least luck predicting is the Seattle Mariners. It is the only team with which I have been off by 16 or more games more than once in the past three seasons.

I am currently working on my 2010 predictions, and will try to have them up before the season starts. As an aside, I was going to work on a post about my fantasy draft last week, but I am flying home for my long-standing fantasy league this weekend, and I need to get my season predictions in order as well, so that post will have to be moved to the back-burner.

5 Facts About Javier Vazquez

1. Vazquez returns to New York a more consistent pitcher than when he left. Here is how Vazquez's quality start percentage breaks down:

Yrs.....QS%
'98-'03.....53%
'04.....50%
'05-'09.....57%

What's even more striking is that after a down year during 2006, his first in Chicago, he has posted even better numbers - 61% quality starts from 2007 to 2009. Here's how he stacks up against the other pitchers the Yankees have under contract for 2010 that started for the Yankees in 2009:

Pitcher.....QS% '07-'09
Sabathia.....69%
Burnett.....61%
Vazquez.....61%
Pettitte.....58%
Gaudin.....46%
Chamberlain.....44%
Mitre.....33%
Hughes.....32%

In other words, Vazquez should be a huge step up in consistency from the back-end options the Yankees were going to have available to them in 2010.

2. He has the right stuff. Starting in 2005, Vazquez has had an average Stuff score of 29.8, and an average Stuff rank of 12.8 (minimum 100 innings pitched). In the past three years, he has ranked fifth, 12th and seventh (again, minimum 100 innings pitched) among all MLB pitchers.

3. Vazquez fields his position well. He came in 14th in the 2009 Fielding Bible Awards for pitchers, and over the past three seasons he ranked seventh among pitchers in terms of fielding runs saved (10 runs) and eighth among pitchers in fielding plus/minus (+9).

4. Vazquez has tossed a lot of complete games, but he is not as efficient at it as some. With Randy Johnson retiring, Vazquez is now 11th in complete games among active pitchers, but he is also ninth among active pitchers in games started.

5. Vazquez has ranked 9th, 94th, 33rd, 93rd and 78th in ERA the last five years (minimum 100 innings pitched). Looks like one exceptional year, one very good year and three slightly above average year, yes? But his FIP ranks paint a different picture - 3rd, 31st, 26th, 23rd and 53rd.

Next Up: Adrian Beltre

5 Facts About Curtis Granderson

Most people know that Curtis Granderson's 2007 season is one of four seasons to belong to the 20-20-20-20 Club (20 homers, doubles, triples and stolen bases in the same season) along with Frank Schulte's 1911 season, Willie Mays' 1957 season and Jimmy Rollins' 2007 season. They also know that Granderson has a reputation for being an incredibly nice guy. Let's look a little bit further and get five more facts about one of the newest New York Yankees.

1. Granderson's 2007 and 2008 seasons stand out significantly from the rest of his career. His 2009 season opened doubts that Granderson has already peaked, which wouldn't be out of place given that his 2008 season was his age-27 season (typically a player's best season statistically). In 2007 and 2008, Granderson hit .292/.363/.524, for an OPS of .887. In his other seasons (2004-2006 & 2009) he hit .256/.329/.450, for an OPS of .778, or more than a 100 point difference.

2. In 2007, Granderson hit fastballs incredibly well. According to FanGraphs' wFB stat, he was 31.7 runs above average versus fastballs, good for ninth in all of baseball. In 2008, he dropped down to a respectable 14.9, good for 46th place. But last season, he fell all the way to 1.2, or 115th out of 153 qualifying players.

3. Defensively, Granderson is a big upgrade from Melky Cabrera. For his career, Cabrera has a Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) per 150 games of -2.4, while Granderson's mark is 5.2, almost a full win better. Granderson's +17 mark in center field was the third best in 2009 (Brett Gardner was the best Yankee at +11) and his +26 mark from 2007-2009 ranked seventh among center fielders. Cabrera did not factor in the top 10 of either leaderboard. Also, Granderson finished third in the 2009 Fielding Bible Awards for center field.

4. Among the 132 batters that had at least 150 plate appearances versus left-handed pitching in 2009, Granderson's isolated power (ISO) was the third lowest (only Scott Podsednik and Emilio Bonafacio were lower), his on-base percentage was second lowest (only Stephen Drew was lower) and his slugging percentage was the lowest overall by a wide margin.

5. Granderson is hard to double up. He has never grounded into more than seven double plays in a season, and last season he had the best GIDP% in the Majors, at a minuscule 0.94%. (minimum 50 GIDP opportunities) He grounded into only one double play in 106 opportunities. To put that in context, 132 players had 100 or more GIDP opportunities, and of that group, the next lowest GIDP total was four, by Grady Sizemore and Luke Scott.

Next up in the "5 Facts" series: Javier Vazquez
Next post: My 2009 "Aboveground" & "Underground" Mix CD's explained, coming Wednesday or Thursday

30 Things I Learned Reading the 2010 Bill James Handbook

The Bill James Handbook, published each year by the good folks at Baseball Information Systems (BIS), is filled with endless stats and information. As James states toward the back of the book, it is designed to be a book of facts, a record of the season. The validity of some of the information may be questionable to some, including myself, but the breadth of the information presented is difficult to find anywhere else, and as such it makes the book an incredibly useful, and fun tool.

Below are 30 fun morsels of information I parceled out while reading/skimming the 2010 edition the past week and a half. For most, if not all of these, I looked at the data in-depth. In other words, I tried not to just regurgitate the information presented in the book. I kept it to 30, but there is so much more info in the book that I didn't even examine in-depth, such as the park indices, career register, the instant replay analysis and the manager's record. One could really keep themselves occupied with this book for a long, long time.

1. Eight teams had a winning road record. Six made the playoffs.
2. The NL West was the only division that did not play any games on turf.
3. Six teams beat an opponent 14 or more times: Tampa beat Baltimore 14 times, Detroit beat Cleveland 14 times, Seattle beat Oakland 14 times, the Dodgers beat Colorado 14 times, Philadelphia beat Washington 15 times and Boston beat Baltimore 16 times.
4. Two teams won 21 games in a month - Colorado did it in June and the Yankees did it in August.
5. 10 teams hit more home runs on the road than at home.
6. Seven teams had a team stolen base success rate of 75% or higher.
7. Only three teams grounded into less than 100 double plays - Arizona, Philadelphia and Texas.
8. Seven of the eight playoff teams were in the top 15 in "baserunning net runs gained," a stat that totals the number of runs gained while running the bases during play with the number of runs gained from stolen base attempts.
9. Michael Bourn, Rajai Davis, Ian Kinsler and Chase Utley were the only players that were +15 or greater in both baserunning and stolen base gain.
10. In addition to those four, Jason Bartlett, Brett Gardner, Torii Hunter, Matthew Kemp, Nick Punto, Willy Taveras, Jayson Werth and Randy Winn were all +10 or greater in both categories.
11. The Wests were the best baserunning divisions, the Centrals the worst and the Easts in between. Averaging the net gain on the bases of the teams by division, I find that the AL West had an average net gain of 56.75 runs, with the NL West second at 46.2. Then came the NL East at 28.6 and the AL East at 26.8, and then the AL Central at -2.0, and the NL Central dead last at -3.66.
12. Only eight pitchers had a "leverage index" of greater than or equal to 2.0 - David Aardsma, Heath Bell, Brian Fuentes, Brad Lidge, Jonathan Papelbon, Scot Shields, Joakim Soria and Brian Wilson (minimum two games pitched).
13. Only eight pitchers recorded three or more "tough saves," as defined by BIS - Bell, Ryan Franklin, Mike MacDougal, Papelbon, Chad Qualls, Mariano Rivera, Soria and Wilson.
14. 43 relief pitchers inherited 40 or more runners last season. Of that group, Jason Bergmann was the stingiest, as he allowed just 14% of his inherited runners to score.
15. 16 players had 10 or more pinch hits in 2009.
16. Five players hit three or more pinch hit home runs in 2009.
17. BIS has an unique way of tracking "manufactured runs." According to their totals, the Angels led baseball in this category, as they manufactured 50 more runs than their opponents. The Royals were at the opposite end of the spectrum. They manufactured 63 less runs than their opponents.
18. Nick Markakis had the most at-bats versus left-handed pitching, with 264.
19. Ryan Braun had the most at-bats versus right-handed pitching, with 516.
20. Prince Fielder, Raul Ibanez and Hideki Matsui led MLB with 13 home runs as left-handed batters against left-handed pitching.
21. Mark Reynolds led MLB with 36 homers as a right-handed batter versus right-handed pitching.
22. 23 hitters hit 10 or more home runs versus both left-handed and right-handed pitching. 12 of them were right-handed hitters (Jason Bay, Michael Cuddyer, Mark DeRosa, Aaron Hill, Ian Kinsler, Paul Konerko, Albert Pujols, Juan Rivera, Cody Ross, Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Upton and Werth), 10 were left-handed (Russell Branyan, Robinson Cano, Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Ibanez, Matsui, Justin Morneau, Carlos Pena, Luke Scott and Utley) and one was a switch hitter (Victor Martinez).
23. Only Joe Mauer and Kevin Youkilis were top 10 in the AL in on-base percentage versus both left-handed and right-handed pitching. In the NL, only Nick Johnson and Pujols were in the same group.
24. Outlier alert! BIS has a stat called BPS, which is batting average + slugging percentage. On pitches outside of the strike zone, Ben Zobrist had the best BPS score in the AL, with a score of .833. The second highest mark in the ALwas .671, and the highest NL mark was .663.
25. Looking at Bill James' Runs Created stat, we can see that Bay and Youkilis were the only players to rank in the top 10 in the AL in terms of "Runs Created per 27 Outs" against both left-handed and right-handed pitching. In the NL, there were also two who were in this group - Fielder and Pujols.
26. The two worst AL catchers in terms of percentage of runners caught stealing were Red Sox by the end of the season - Jason Varitek and Martinez. Only Yorvit Torrealba saved them from being the two worst in baseball.
27. Among the top seven active leaders in wins, only Pedro Martinez is not also top seven among players in losses.
28. Derek Holland was the one pitcher that had one of the ten best AL Game Scores as well as one of the 10 worst AL Game Scores.
29. During the decade, 17 players had a Win Share mark of 15 or better in five consecutive seasons. 11 players did it in six consecutive seasons, six did it in seven consecutive seasons, five did it in eight consecutive seasons, seven did it in nine consecutive seasons and five did it in every season of the decade. Those five players were Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Chipper Jones and Alex Rodriguez.
30. The single-best Win Shares season of the decade, and the only season over 40, was Pujols' mark of 41 in 2003. There were 16 other seasons of 35 or better. Pujols and Rodriguez had four seasons each, with Jason Giambi the only other player to do it more than once. None of the 17 seasons were turned in by pitchers, and 10 were turned in by first basemen.

MLB 2009, Part Two

Last year, the AL ended up being the better league once again, as the progress the NL made from 2006 to 2007 turned out to be a one year blip. AL teams finished with an average record of 82.6-79.4, with the NL the inverse. Some of that will be rectified this year - the Braves and Mets should be better in the East, and the Rockies should be rebound a bit as well. But the Cubs and Astros also performed much better than expectations last year, and with the Pirates and Padres going through major rebuilds, the NL is once again unlikely to emerge as the dominant league.

Just like last year, W-L is each team's predicted total, Diff is the team's difference between their actual 2008 win total and their projected 2009 total and Rank is their projected MLB rank from 1-30.

AL E....W-L, Diff, Rank
TBA....96-66, -1, 1
BOS....95-67, 0, 2
NYA....94-68, +5, 3
TOR....81-81, -5, 15
BAL....77-85, +9, 23

The three best teams in baseball all reside in one division. It really may be a coin flip for who has the best team, and which team is going to get left out of the playoffs. Each team has extra depth at starter - Boston has John Smoltz and Clay Buchholz, Tampa has David Price and Jeff Niemann and New York has Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Each team has the requisite offensive firepower and bullpen needed to take home the division title and secure home field throughout the playoffs.

Tampa should get a bounce back season from Carl Crawford, and full seasons from B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria. Their two new offensive acquisitions, Pat Burrell and Matt Joyce, should add runs to the lineup, and if Burrell is not forced to play the field, the Rays will be all the better for it. The bullpen doesn't have one star, but it is very deep.

In Boston, the bullpen is so deep that one of their prime offseason acquisitions, Japanese import Junichi Tazawa, wasn't even expected to begin the season in the Majors. The Sox are acquiring pitchers they might use in the second half before the season even starts. The big question for the Red Sox is the health of their offensive players, as the team doesn't have as much depth to replace Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew and David Ortiz if they go down again. The key here will be Rocco Baldelli. If he and Drew can combine for 162 games, the Sox will be fine. But that's a medium-to-large sized if. And for some strange reason, Jason Varitek was able to weasel his way back onto the team. I'll be surprised if he is the starting catcher in September, but for now, he still is.

For all of the potential problems the Sox have with the bottom of their roster, I believe that the Rays and Sox overcome the Yankees because of the bottom of their rosters. The Yankees have once again forgotten to align their bench talent, and find themselves ill-equipped to deal with injuries. They also are still a bit behind the other two AL East juggernauts defensively. The Yankees certainly improved their defense with the addition of Mark Teixeira, and by naming Brett Gardner as their center fielder, but I have to wonder how long Gardner is going to last. If his batting average is under .225 after a month, is Manager Joe Girardi really going to stick with him, or is he going to be tempted to plug Johnny Damon back in? We'll see.

Elsewhere in the division, I see one major difference between Toronto and Baltimore - Roy Halladay. Both teams have awful rotations (aside from Halladay) and below-average bullpens. Toronto has a better defense, and Baltimore has a better offense (or they will, as soon as they call up Matt Wieters). If Toronto ends up trading Halladay, or the O's call up Wieters sooner than expected, I can easily see the two teams flip-flopping in the standings. Nick Markakis' only competition for best outfielder in the division is Upton, and Adam Jones stands a good chance at blossoming into a 20-20 player in his second season. In addition, the O's resolved Brian Roberts' contract situation, and those three players, along with Wieters, figure to form an imposing offensive core for the next few seasons. I'm also excited to see what Felix Pie will do with extended playing time, and I am likewise excited for the (hopeful) emergence of Travis Snider and Adam Lind in Toronto.

AL C....W-L, Diff, Rank
CLE....87-75, +6, 9
MIN....83-79, -5, 10
KCA....81-81, +6, 16
CHA....76-86, -13, 25
DET....65-97, -9, 28

There is a reason that the three best teams in the AL are all in the East - the other two divisions just aren't that good this year. Last year's division champs, the Chicago White Sox, lost Orlando Cabrera, Nick Swisher and Joe Crede, and replaced them with nothing. Josh Fields was a prospect two years ago, but now is just a guy. He might play as well as Crede, but I wouldn't bet on it. And Crede isn't that good in the first place. Alexei Ramirez wasn't good defensively at second, so moving him to short probably isn't going to work out well. Second base and center field are abject nightmares, and the rotation now features the artist formerly known as Bartolo Colon. John Danks was outstanding last year, but regression should be expected. Ozzie Guillen is a terrific manager, but there are just too many holes here.

Cleveland has its own holes, but they also have a lot of things going in their favor. First, Chin-Soo Choo should be able to build on the .946 OPS he put up in limited time last season. They added Kerry Wood as closer, which aligns their talent better, as Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez are better set-up men. They added Mark DeRosa, and Victor Martinez should be back to mashing. If they receive any uptick in performance from the mysterious Travis Hafner, they could win easily, but they will probably have to battle it out with Minnesota and Kansas City.

Like the White Sox squad they faced in game #163 last season, Minnesota did not make a ton of offseason moves. While they should get an entire season of Francisco Liriano this season, they are not going to get anywhere near a full season from catcher Joe Mauer, who begins the season on the disabled list. Mauer, who is the Twins' best player, may not even be able to catch, which will be a big problem for the Twins, as they don't have another good backstop option, but do have an abundance of no-field DH types. Scott Baker was set to be their Opening Day starter before being shelved by an injury, which I'm sure isn't the way he wanted to start his season. The Twins always manage to hang around and compete, but for the third straight year, it won't be in the cards in the twin cities.

The Royals were a sleeper for the division until the other day, when they decided to hand a rotation spot to Sidney Ponson. Oops! Ponson must have pictures of somebody, because he keeps finding jobs despite the fact that he hasn't had a season ERA under 5.00 since 2003. Last year in Texas, he managed an incredibly deceiving 3.88 ERA in Texas, as he allowed a whopping 87 base runners in 55.2 innings. Ponson sort of represents the contradiction that is the Royals - they stock the team with promising prospects like Alex Gordon and Mike Aviles, but also past their prime veterans like Ponson and Kyle Farnsworth. They add good defensive players like Coco Crisp, but also butchers like Mike Jacobs. Zack Greinke and Gil Meche form a solid base for the front of their rotation, and Juan Cruz and Joakim Soria the same for the bullpen, but the Royals have more work to do. Everyone seems to be high on Kyle Davies, but until August 28, his ERA for the season was 4.81, and 5.84 for his career. I need to see more than six starts at the end of the season when the team was out of contention to get excited about him.

As for Detroit, they're pretty much a train wreck. 20-year old Rick Porcello is penciled in as their fourth starter right now, and while Porcello will no doubt be a very good pitcher, it's unlikely that 2009 will be his real coming-out party. Detroit simply has zero pitching beyond Justin Verlander, and he got destroyed in the second half last season. They will score runs, but not enough, and if they have to trade Miguel Cabrera midseason, a long season will be even longer. Two years ago, everyone in baseball was praising Dave Dombrowski for his marvelous Motown rebuilding job, but by the end of this season, Detroit will be a lot closer to their 2003-2004 incarnation than the 2006-2007 one.

AL W....W-L, Diff, Rank
LAA....83-79, -17, 11
OAK....79-83, +4, 19
TEX....79-83, 0, 20
SEA....77-85, +16, 22

This division could be the worst in baseball this year. It says a lot when one team is projected to do 17 wins worse than the year before, and still win the division. The top three members of their rotation - John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders - all may miss significant time with injury, and fellow starter Kelvim Escobar will miss time as well. The braintrust made the correct decision to make Gary Matthews a very high-priced extra outfielder, but he is whining about it, which is obviously not good. Their offense and defense both have big problems. The bullpen is still a strength, but the main reason they will win the division is the fact that their competition is just not that stiff.

Oakland is the one team in the division with the most variable outcomes, and that's mainly due to their rotation. The team's top two prospects - Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill - both won rotation spots. It is rare to see that happen at the same time, and it could go very well or very poorly. Another big item that is difficult to predict is the destination of outfielder Matt Holliday. If they trade him midseason to continue bulking up their rebuild, they will probably come in under 79 wins. He is one of, if not the only, imposing presence in their lineup, and the team will not score a ton of runs without him. The third factor is the health of Justin Duchscherer. While he is unlikely to repeat his 2008 performance, he is still the ace of their staff, and the A's will need him to come back quickly following his surgery this past Tuesday. But the A's have some things going for them this year as well, starting with their new double play combo of Orlando Cabrera and Mark Ellis. In all, it just doesn't seem like the positives will outweigh the negatives this season.

Speaking of extreme positives and extreme negatives, let's talk about the Texas Rangers, where the offense is the extreme positive and the pitching is the extreme negative. The defense lies somewhere between the two extremes, but it's not going to be a great advantage. At this time next year, Neftali Feliz, Justin Smoak and perhaps Derek Holland will have been added to the Major League roster, and the Rangers will have a better chance of topping the AL West for the first time since 1999.

It might seem counter intuitive to pick a team that dealt its closer away to add 16 wins to their ledger, but the Mariners might have a truly exceptional outfield defense this season. Ichiro Suziki's surprise DL stint to start the season is a bit off-putting, but he might only miss eight to ten games. The offense won't be terribly imposing, but I saw two guys in skinny jeans at Starbucks yesterday that would be upgrades over the Mariners 2008 1B/DH combo of Richie Sexson and Jose Vidro. Russell Branyan and Ken Griffey, Jr. do not have big shoes to fill. Speaking of Griffey, statheads might not like it, but the team is likely to derive a small amount of karma from Griffey's farewell tour. This isn't as bad as Craig Biggio's last two years in Houston - Griffey can still be an effective player.

NL E....W-L, Diff, Rank
NYN....94-68, +5, 4
PHI....93-69, +1, 5
FLA....82-80, -2, 13
ATL....80-82, +8, 17
WAS....66-96, +7, 27

Last season, the Mets received a combined 14 starts from Nelson Figueroa, Claudio Vargas, Brian Stokes, Brandon Knight and Tony Armas, as they were ill-equipped to deal with injuries to Pedro Martinez and John Maine. This season, the team has added innings eater Livan Hernandez and Tim Redding to join prospect Jonathan Niese to fill out the back end of the rotation. Redding has had shoulder discomfort in Spring Training, so Hernandez will start in the fifth spot, and while Hernandez is on the down side of his career, the Mets did win 89 games last year despite Petey's 5.61 ERa. Hernandez's biggest strength - his rubber arm - should suit the Mets just fine. One of the reasons for that is the newly revamped bullpen. Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz made a habit of dominating AL hitters, and now will be able to feast on weaker competition in the NL. The Mets are far from perfect; they still could stand to upgrade their corner outfielders and catchers, and are a classic boom or bust team. But after two years of September busting it's a fair bet that the Mets will stay glued together in 2009, and the results will be enough to erase the headaches their fans feel when they look at the ticketing map of the new Citi Field.

That's not to say that Philadelphia is going to go down quietly. But there are a couple of factors working against Philly this season. First, perfection doesn't happen too often, so expecting Brad Lidge to repeat his perfect season in terms of converting save opportunities is folly. Second, the signing of Raul Ibanez made the team incredibly left-handed, which probably isn't a good thing. Third, Cole Hamels is already showing signs of wear and tear, and the season hasn't even started yet. Retread Chan Ho Park winning the fifth spot in the rotation underscores just how important Hamels is to this rotation. The Phillies 2008 NLCS and World Series MVP can't miss mch time, or the Fightin's could be in serious trouble.

The soon to be Miami Marlins will do what they usually do - pinch pennies that will deny a possible championship core its chance to win said championship. Hanley Ramirez may be the best player in baseball, and if he's not, he's in the top three. Cameron Maybin is the stud the Marlins have been waiting for in center, and Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson and Chris Volstad form an impressive trio at the front of the rotation. Anibal Sanchez and Andrew Miller have their merits, and were once hyped prospects. Second baseman Dan Uggla and closer Matt Lindstrom round out an impressive foundation, and though I could see this team winning 90 games, things just never seem to go smoothly for them. Case in point - they were still building the roster on April 1, trading for pitcher Hayden Penn and corner-man Ross Gload.

Atlanta should have been better than they were last year, but Jeff Francoeur imploded and was even demoted to Double-A for a stretch. Yet there he is again, atop the Braves' right-field depth chart. Manning the other corner is Garrett Anderson. That's not going to end well. And as good as the front four of the rotation may be, with Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Javier Vazquez and Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami, the Braves.com depth chart currently lists no fifth starter, since the man nominally expected to fill that role - Tom Glavine - is already on the DL. The bullpen is similarly held together by tape and glue, as Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano and Peter Moylan are imposing but fragile. The infield should be among the NL's best, and rookie Jordan Schafer offers promise in center, and the Braves could hop scotch over the Fish into third, but I'm not holding my breath.

As for Washington, they are simply too dysfunctional to hope to compete. Growth from the likes of Lastings Milledge, Ryan Zimmerman, Jesus Flores, Jordan Zimmerman and Elijah Dukes is all the hope the Nats will be able to muster this season. Of course, if they play Austin Kearns over Dukes, it will be hard for him to make any progress.

NL C....W-L, Diff, Rank
SLN....90-72, +4, 6
CHN....88-74, -9, 7
MIL....80-82, -10, 18
CIN....77-85, +3, 24
HOU....72-90, -14, 26
PIT....61-101, -6, 30

Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are back. Khalil Greene is on the scene. Rick Ankiel should play the whole season, and if Colby Rasmus forces his way onto the roster, the long, painful Chris Duncan experiment should draw to a close. Not having Troy Glaus around to open the season is a detriment, but the Cards should hang around long enough to win this year. That's because things are not going to go well in Wrigleyville.

Milton Bradley in the outfield? Kevin Gregg as the closer? Really? The Fukudome/Johnson platoon in center isn't going to inspire fear. Rich Harden is always a prime candidate to break down, and surprisingly, so is Carlos Zambrano, whose ERA the last two months was a whopping 7.28 despite throwing a no-hitter. Carlos Marmol is imposing, and a full season from Alfonso Soriano, while unlikely, would be a boon, but there are a lot of red flags for this team already.

The Cubs fate won't seem that bad though, because Milwaukee and Houston are also primed for major letdowns. The back end of the Astros rotation is a nightmare, one that not even Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence are qualified to overcome. And it's not exactly like the Astros are going to play world class defense either. In Milwaukee, they bring back essentially the same team as last year, minus C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets of course. They will score runs, but the bullpen will be awful. Trevor Hoffman was brought in to help the 'pen, but that was a bad idea that was compounded even further when it was learned that he would start the season on the DL.

The downfall of these two teams would seem to open the door for the Reds, but unfortunately, the Reds were the one team to open the door for Willy Tavares and his career .668 OPS. It was just two years ago that the Reds had seemingly too many outfielders, but now they just have Jay Bruce. Bruce should be a star in this league, but he only hit .254 last season, and it may take him some time to fulfill his All-Star potential. In the rotation, Bronson Arroyo's ERA has risen 94 and 54 points the last two years, respectively, yet he is still penciled in as their third starter.

The disappointing thing for Pirates fans is that they might welcome a 4.77 ERA into their rotation, as the only Bucs starter to best that mark in 2008 was Paul Maholm (3.71). The Pirates will be the worst team in baseball.

NL W....W-L, Diff, Rank
LAN....87-75, +3, 8
COL....83-79, +9, 12
ARI....82-80, 0, 14
SFN....79-83, +7, 21
SDN....63-99, 0, 29

The Manny Ramirez derby this winter may have distracted a lot of people from one big problem - the Dodgers rotation isn't all that spectacular. Chad Billingsley, while good in the regular season, was last seen getting tattooed to the tune of 10 runs in five innings in the NLCS against the Phillies. He then proceeded to break his leg "slipping and falling in his driveway" in the offseason. He should be good to go for Opening Day, but he still comes with question marks. Speaking of question marks, can Randy Wolf stay healthy, can Clayton Kershaw mature, and is James McDonald really the answer in the fifth spot? Hiroki Kuroda should be solid, but doesn't get a lot of strikeouts. The lineup however, should be imposing when everyone is healthy. The weak link in the chain is either Casey Blake or Orlando Hudson, and they are both capable of having quality at-bats. Look for the offense to carry the rotation through to an above average bullpen.

2008 was a dissapointing season for Colorado, and after they jettisoned/lost Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes, national expectations are low for the boys in purple. However, with Dexter Fowler and Ian Stewart winning battles in Spring Training, the Rockies might have their best team one through 25 ever heading into 2009, despite already losing starter Jeff Francis for the season. The rotation is anchored by Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez, and while Franklin Morales and Jorge De La Rosa still have to prove that they belong, the upside of both is still high. The bullpen should be solid, as the Rockies parted ways with 2008 dissapointments Luis Vizcaino and Matt Herges, replacing them with battle-tested vet Alan Embree and new closer Huston Street. It's a good mix that will only get better when Taylor Buchholz returns from injury in May. With a now healthy Troy Tulowitzki and Todd Helton to complement rising star Chris Iannetta and the always-solid bat of Brad Hawpe, the Rockies will still put runs on the scoreboard. It likely won't be enough to overcome the Dodgers, but it will be enough to renew optimism in the Rocky Mountains. And with maturation from Jimenez, Iannetta, Fowler and Stewart, and with Jhoulys Chacin on the horizon, 2010 could see the rebirth of Rocktober.

Arizona is an enigma. They have two great starters in Brandon Webb and Daniel Haren, and promise in Max Scherzer, but much of the rest of their roster is a bit overrated. They needed to add Adam Dunn to the offense to be capable of scoring runs down the stretch in 2008, and that still wasn't enough to overcome the Manny Ramirez show in Los Angeles. Now he's gone. The Arizona bullpen was less than spectacular, and over the winter their big move was to swap out Brandon Lyon with the oft-injured Tom Gordon. Stephen Drew had a terrific season last year, but it's an open question as to how much better he can be. Along the same lines, after three full seasons - none of which saw him pile up 50 extra base hits - it may be time to stop wondering when Conor Jackson will break out. Yes, this is his age 27 season, but he's been essentially the same guy for three straight years. His OPS in 2006 was .809, and then it was .836 and .823 the next two seasons. The same can be said for Chris Young and Chris Snyder, and of course Eric Byrnes has devolved back into the same craptastic outfielder he was at the start of his career. Justin Upton will need to carry this team for them to succeed offensively, and he still may be a year away from that type of performance.

San Francisco has an outstanding rotation, but then they had an outstanding rotation last year. Randy Johnson will help make it better, and Pablo Sandoval should be an upgrade over Jose Castillo at third base. Edgar Renteria might be an upgrade at shortstop, and Travis Ishikawa should be an upgrade defensively at first, but he is unlikely to remind anyone of Barry Bonds at the dish. The rest of the team is pretty much a carbon copy of 2008's 72-win team, and that likely won't get it done.

San Diego's biggest competition will be with Pittsburgh, Detroit and Washington for the 2010 number one pick. Unfortunately for the Fathers, who have holes long-term at most positions, they still have Jake Peavy, Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Kouzmanoff, and that's more than the Pirates can claim. The pitching Chris Young, Heath Bell, Chase Headley and Jody Gerut aren't terrible, but the Padres are awful up the middle. Their double play combo may be the worst in the Majors, and they don't have a Major League quality catcher. This is not what Brian Giles had in mind when he vetoed a trade to Boston last year.

AL Playoffs:
1 TBA over 3 LAA in three games.
4 BOS over 2 CLE in four games.
1 TBA over 4 BOS in seven games.

NL Playoffs:
1 NYN over 3 LAN in five games.
2 SLN over 4 PHI in five games.
1 NYN over 2 SLN in five games.

World Series: 1 TBA over 2 NYN in six games.
World Series MVP: B.J. Upton

So there you have it! I probably won't be any more accurate in 2009 than I was in 2008 or 2007, but that is both the joy and pain (paging Rob Base!) of trying to predict something that won't resolve itself for seven months...