Before the start of each season, I like to look back at my projections and see how I did. In 2007, I had a pretty damn good year, picking 17 of the 30 teams within 5 games of their actual record, and finishing an average of only 6 games off for all teams. 2008? Not so much. It was a much worse season. So how did I do in 2009? In between, of course:
# Gms Off.....2007.....2008.....2009
0..................3...........2............3
1-5...............14..........6...........9
6-10.............7...........10.........9
11-15...........5............6...........5
16+..............1............6...........4
Avg Off........6.10.......9.93......8.07
On the positive end of the spectrum, I perfectly nailed my predictions for Boston (95 wins), Milwaukee (80) and Philadelphia (93). On the negative end, I completely blew predictions for Kansas City (81 wins projected, they actually won 65), Detroit (65-86), Cleveland (87-65) and the New York Mets (94-70). While I can fall back on the old injury excuse with the Mets, I did a very poor job of reading the AL Central last year. In fact, the AL Central has proven to be my most challenging division:
Avg # Games Off, 2007-2009
AL East...6.53
NL Cent...7.13
AL West...7.67
NL West...8.33
NL East...8.73
AL Cent...9.80
My AL Central predictions have been more than a game worse than any other division. What makes that figure even worse is the fact that 2 of my 8 perfect predictions were the Royals in 2007 and 2008.
But individually, the team I have had the least luck predicting is the Seattle Mariners. It is the only team with which I have been off by 16 or more games more than once in the past three seasons.
I am currently working on my 2010 predictions, and will try to have them up before the season starts. As an aside, I was going to work on a post about my fantasy draft last week, but I am flying home for my long-standing fantasy league this weekend, and I need to get my season predictions in order as well, so that post will have to be moved to the back-burner.
# Gms Off.....2007.....2008.....2009
0..................3...........2............3
1-5...............14..........6...........9
6-10.............7...........10.........9
11-15...........5............6...........5
16+..............1............6...........4
Avg Off........6.10.......9.93......8.07
On the positive end of the spectrum, I perfectly nailed my predictions for Boston (95 wins), Milwaukee (80) and Philadelphia (93). On the negative end, I completely blew predictions for Kansas City (81 wins projected, they actually won 65), Detroit (65-86), Cleveland (87-65) and the New York Mets (94-70). While I can fall back on the old injury excuse with the Mets, I did a very poor job of reading the AL Central last year. In fact, the AL Central has proven to be my most challenging division:
Avg # Games Off, 2007-2009
AL East...6.53
NL Cent...7.13
AL West...7.67
NL West...8.33
NL East...8.73
AL Cent...9.80
My AL Central predictions have been more than a game worse than any other division. What makes that figure even worse is the fact that 2 of my 8 perfect predictions were the Royals in 2007 and 2008.
But individually, the team I have had the least luck predicting is the Seattle Mariners. It is the only team with which I have been off by 16 or more games more than once in the past three seasons.
I am currently working on my 2010 predictions, and will try to have them up before the season starts. As an aside, I was going to work on a post about my fantasy draft last week, but I am flying home for my long-standing fantasy league this weekend, and I need to get my season predictions in order as well, so that post will have to be moved to the back-burner.
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