NL All-Star Prediction Results

You National League All-Star team:

Pos	Player, Tm	Did I Have Him?
C	Geovany Soto, CHC	Yes
1B	Lance Berkman, HOU	Yes
2B	Chase Utley, PHI	Yes
SS	Hanley Ramirez, FLA	Yes
3B	Chipper Jones, ATL	Yes
OF	Ryan Braun, MIL	Yes
OF	Kosuke Fukudome, CHC	Yes
OF	Alfonso Soriano, CHC	Yes
P	Aaron Cook, COL	Yes
P	Ryan Dempster, CHC	No
P	Brad Lidge, PHI	Yes
P	Tim Lincecum, SF	Yes
P	Ben Sheets, MIL	Yes
P	Edinson Volquez, CIN	Yes
P	Brandon Webb, ARI	Yes
P	Brian Wilson, SF	No
P	Kerry Wood, CHC	Yes
C	Russell Martin, LA	No
1B	Adrian Gonzalez, SD	Yes
2B	Dan Uggla, FLA	Yes
3B	Aramis Ramirez, CHC	No
SS	Miguel Tejada, HOU	No
OF	Matt Holliday, COL	Yes
OF	Ryan Ludwick, STL	No
OF	Nate McLouth, PIT	Yes
P	Dan Haren, ARI	Yes
P	Billy Wagner, NYM	Yes
P	Carlos Zambrano, CHC	No
1B	Brian McCann, ATL	Yes
1B	Albert Pujols, STL	Yes
SS	Cristian Guzman, WAS	No

So again, I got 23 of the players, though with just 31, my percentage bumps up to 74% correct. Most of the ones I missed are not surprises. I would only count Wilson and Guzman as surprises, and mild ones at that. I didn't see Wilson as having a high enough profile, and as a result dismissed him completely. But he has been one of the best relievers in baseball by any metric though, so credit the players with picking him. As in the AL though, there is one simply ridiculous pick - Miguel Tejada. Hanley Ramirez was clearly the best player at the position, but of NL shortstops with 100 plate appearances, Tejada clocks in at eighth in VORP, behind Guzman, but also behind Jose Reyes, Rafael Furcal (he doesn't count because he's injured), J.J. Hardy, Jerry Hairston (!) and Jimmy Rollins. Rollins did miss some time due to injury, so I can see how he would be left out. And Tejada is leading NL shortstops in RBI, but I think Reyes would have been a far superior selection. Looking at the two, we see that Reyes has a better average, on-base and slugging percentage. Reyes has more doubles, more triples and more steals. Tejada's edge amounts to one homer and six RBI. Again though, it is instructive to look at how the players started. Tejada was on fire in April and Reyes started slow. Unfortunately, the players were fooled by this and went with Tejada instead of the more deserving Reyes.

But, there have been years when several selections were preposterous. That there are only one or two per team shows that the process does work fairly well within the constraints that MLB dictates for the selection process. Let's see how the voting broke out by electoral group:

Fans: the eight starters
Players: Martin, Gonzalez, Uggla, A Ramirez, Tejada, Holliday, McLouth, Ludwick, Dempster, Webb, Volquez, Lincecum, Sheets, Wood, Lidge and Wilson
Hurdle: Guzman, McCann, Pujols, Zambrano, Cook, Haren, Wagner

I'm not exactly clear as to why Hurdle got to pick seven guys to Francona's five. I understand that he gets one more player due to the fans not voting for a NL designated hitter. Perhaps this was inaccurately reported at first blush, and one of the seven reportedly selected by Hurdle was actually a players selection? We'll see...

In any event, Clint had only two teams to fill out his roster - Washington and New York. He picked one reliever and one shortstop - Guzman and Wagner. If he had picked Jon Rauch and Reyes nobody would have given it a second thought, he really couldn't go wrong there. And he acquitted himself very well with his other selections, taking guys that all obviously deserve to be there. The other decision that Hurdle has to make is who his starting DH will be. I would peg the candidates as Pujols, Holliday and Gonzalez, all of whom would be good choices.

The Final Vote has the following five guys:

- David Wright
- Pat Burrell
- Corey Hart
- Carlos Lee
- Aaron Rowand

I had both Wright and Lee on my actual team - they essentially swapped out with Zambrano and Ludwick, who I had in my Final Vote instead of being on the actual team. I did however, correctly predict that Burrell would be a Final Vote candidate. Consistently overlooked by his peers, Burrell has been a monster this year - actually for the past 18 months. As in the AL, I would expect the player from the biggest market - Wright - to take home this honor. That would bump me up to 24 of 32. Also, I believe Clint Hurdle will have to replace Soriano due to injury, which will likely be one of the four outfielders that doesn't win the Final Vote.

AL All-Star Prediction Results

So, let's see how I did, shall we? First, the American League rosters:

Pos	Player, Tm	Did I Have Him?
C	Joe Mauer, MIN	Yes
1B	Kevin Youkilis, BOS	Yes
2B	Dustin Pedroia, BOS	Yes
SS	Derek Jeter, NYY	Yes
3B	Alex Rodriguez, NYY	Yes
OF	Josh Hamilton, TEX	Yes
OF	Manny Ramirez, BOS	Yes
OF	Ichiro Suzuki, SEA	Yes
DH	David Ortiz, BOSº	Yes
P	Justin Duchscherer, OAK	Yes
P	Roy Halladay, TOR	Yes
P	Scott Kazmir, TB	No
P	Cliff Lee, CLE	Yes
P	Joe Nathan, MIN	No
P	Jonathan Papelbon, BOS	Yes
P	Mariano Rivera, NYY	Yes
P	Francisco Rodriguez, LAA	Yes
P	Ervin Santana, LAA	No
P	Joe Saunders, LAA	Yes
P	George Sherrill, BAL	Yes
P	Joakim Soria, KC	Yes
C	Dioner Navarro, TB	No
C	Jason Varitek, BOS	No
1B	Justin Morneau, MIN	Yes
2B	Ian Kinsler, TEX	Yes
SS	Michael Young, TEX	Yes
3B	Joe Crede, CWS	No
3B	Carlos Guillen, DET	No
OF	J.D. Drew, BOS	No
OF	Carlos Quentin, CWS	No
OF	Grady Sizemore, CLE	Yes
DH	Milton Bradley, TEX	Yes

So, I had 23 of 32, or 72% of the players picked correctly. Of the nine I missed, Kazmir, Nathan, Santana, Drew and Quentin are not surprises. I will say that I am surprised to see Crede make it over Evan Longoria, and a little surprised to see Carlos Guillen make it over Magglio Ordonez. I am less surprised about Guillen because Guillen was on the team last year. Then there are the backup catchers. I don't see too much of an issue with Navarro - he and Pierzynski had similar stats. But Jason Varitek's selection is a joke. For one, Varitek has not been an All-Star the past two years, so there was no "he was there last year rationale." In looking at the Baseball Prospectus VORP chart for AL catchers, you can see that 21 catchers have seen at least 100 plate appearances in the AL this year. Of those 21, Varitek ranks 18th, with a -2.3 VORP. As in, he has had negative value. As in, you could call up anyone from the Red Sox farm system and he would be more valuable than Varitek. He entered today hitting .219, which may be a record for lowest batting average by an All-Star. Varitek is tied for third among AL catchers in home runs, but is just eighth in AL catchers in RBI. I could continue, but the point is obvious - Varitek was a bad pick and not really a defensible one. The interesting thing about Varitek's pick is that it was a player's pick, not a manager's pick. Let's see how that breaks out for the AL:

Fans: the nine starters
Players: Bradley, Varitek, Drew, Morneau, Kinsler, Young, Crede, Quentin, Sizemore, Halladay, Lee, Kazmir, Saunders, Santana, Rivera, Papelbon, F Rodriguez, Soria
Francona: Guillen, Navarro, Sherrill, Duchscherer and Nathan

So, with Francona's picks, he needed to pick one guy from Oakland, one guy from Oakland, one guy from Baltimore and two others. That essentially makes Navarro and Nathan his only discretionary picks. I can only assume that he felt he needed a third catcher, whether to protect Varitek or just to not overwork the catchers in general. I would take umbrage with that, but some positions were going to have three players I suppose. Nathan is a very solid pick, and one that I almost made.

Another thing to note is that I believe Francona still has one injury pick to make, since Bradley was named to the team by the players.

For the Final Vote, we have the following five guys:

- Jason Giambi
- Evan Longoria
- Brian Roberts
- Jose Guillen
- Jermaine Dye

So, I didn't actually have any of these guys on my Final Vote projection, which is dissapointing. But I did have Longoria and Dye on my actual team, so I get partial credit for that, right? Dye essentially flip-flopped spots with Quentin. Initially, I had Quentin on my team and Dye in the Final Vote, but I thought Dye's numbers plus reputation would trump Quentin's numbers plus fast start. Obviously, I was wrong. I would hope to see Longoria win this vote, but I will go ahead and assume that Giambi will make it, leaving me at 23 of 33 picked correctly. I'll update both lists next week once the Final Vote has finished and injury replacements have been named. All in all, not too shabby!