Bored on a Saturday while watching Sox vs. Yankees, so I thought I would try and take a stab at predicting the All-Star selections. Ground rules: there will be 32 players selected per side, plus injury replacements. Nine players are voted on by fans - eight starters and one final vote. The other 23 are a combination of player votes and managerial selections. Also, keep in mind that each team must have at least one All-Star. We'll start with the NL, with the AL to follow.
First, the players who will likely be voted in:
C: Geovany Soto, CHC
1B: Lance Berkman, HOU
2B: Chase Utley, PHI
3B: Chipper Jones, ATL
SS: Hanley Ramirez, FLA
OF: Alfonso Soriano, CHC
OF: Kusoke Fukudome, CHC
OF: Ken Griffey, Jr., CIN
Soriano is currently on the DL and will likely be replaced. After looking at those players, it is instructive to fill out the "one-per" rule, since that player can throw off the balance for truly deserving All-Stars. Under this list, we have Jon Rauch on Washington, Albert Pujols on St. Louis, Nate McLouth on Pittsburgh, Takashi Saito on LA, Tim Lincecum on San Fran and Adrian Gonzalez on San Diego. McLouth and Gonzalez are particularly important in this process. While both are deserving All-Stars this season, they don't have the profile that would likely get them voted in otherwise, and Ryan Howard, Derrek Lee and Mark Texiera probably won't be too happy about that.
So let's round out the roster:
P: Rauch, Lincecum, Saito, Brandon Webb (ARI), Ben Sheets (MIL), Dan Haren (ARI), Cole Hamels (PHI), Edinson Volquez (CIN), Johan Santana (NYM), Aaron Cook (COL), Kerry Wood (CHC), Billy Wagner (NYM) and Brad Lidge (PHI).
C: Soto and Brian McCann (ATL)
1B: Berkman, Pujols, Gonzalez
2B: Utley, Dan Uggla (FLA)
3B: Jones, David Wright (NYM)
SS: Ramirez, Jose Reyes (NYM), Jimmy Rollins (PHI)
OF: Soriano (injured), Fukudome, Griffey, Jr., McLouth, Ryan Braun (MIL), Matt Holliday (COL), Carlos Lee (HOU)
So there's your 31 + one - Carlos Lee for an injured Soriano. Rollins is the shakiest choice here, but I can't imagine the previous year's MVP getting left out of the All-Star Game. My pick for the starting pitcher would be either Lincecum or Volquez on merit, or Webb on reputation.
There are certainly some snubs here, and there are certainly guys on the snub list who could be named and I wouldn't be too surprised. They are: Ryan Dempster (P, CHI), Tim Hudson (P, ATL), Jonathan Sanchez (P, SF), Chad Billingsley (P, LA), Kyle Lohse (P, STL), Jake Peavy (P, SD), Francisco Cordero (P, CIN), Jose Valverde (P, HOU), Russell Martin (C, LA), Derrek Lee (1B, CHC), Mark Teixeira (1B, ATL), Brandon Phillips (2B, CIN), Aramis Ramirez (3B, CHC), Corey Hart (OF, MIL), Jason Bay (PIT) and Adam Dunn (OF, CIN).
I think Peavy gets left out this year because of his DL stint. He just doesn't have the innings pitched, and the statistical bulk that comes with it, that he would normally have. Elsewhere, I think Martin gets left out in favor of teammate Saito to give the NL enough relievers, and partially because of Soto as well. Bay gets left out because teammate McLouth is a better fit in the sense that he plays center and most of the other NL outfielders don't - Fukudome and Griffey can, but as a habit they are corner guys. Other guys here sort of fit into a couple of different categories - close, but not close enough, not recognizable enough, too young or a combination of those. Overall, this is a pretty good team. The NL may lack in quantity of quality, but the cream of the crop is pretty substantial. Unlike the American League, where first base has become sort of a black hole, the NL has standout talent at every position.
The snub list will have four more names on it - the four players who are not selected in the Final Vote. Here are my five candidates, which I sort of picked at random:
Pat Burrell (OF, PHI)
Ryan Howard (1B, PHI)
Ryan Ludwick (OF, STL)
Xavier Nady/Jason Bay (OF, PIT)
Carlos Zambrano (P, CHC)
I expect Zambrano to win this vote, giving the NL 15 pitchers. Assuming that happens, here is how the NL roster breaks out by team:
# players: team
5: CHC
4: NYM, PHI
2: ARI, ATL, CIN, COL, FLA, HOU, MIL
1: LAD, PIT, STL, SD, SF, WAS
First, the players who will likely be voted in:
C: Geovany Soto, CHC
1B: Lance Berkman, HOU
2B: Chase Utley, PHI
3B: Chipper Jones, ATL
SS: Hanley Ramirez, FLA
OF: Alfonso Soriano, CHC
OF: Kusoke Fukudome, CHC
OF: Ken Griffey, Jr., CIN
Soriano is currently on the DL and will likely be replaced. After looking at those players, it is instructive to fill out the "one-per" rule, since that player can throw off the balance for truly deserving All-Stars. Under this list, we have Jon Rauch on Washington, Albert Pujols on St. Louis, Nate McLouth on Pittsburgh, Takashi Saito on LA, Tim Lincecum on San Fran and Adrian Gonzalez on San Diego. McLouth and Gonzalez are particularly important in this process. While both are deserving All-Stars this season, they don't have the profile that would likely get them voted in otherwise, and Ryan Howard, Derrek Lee and Mark Texiera probably won't be too happy about that.
So let's round out the roster:
P: Rauch, Lincecum, Saito, Brandon Webb (ARI), Ben Sheets (MIL), Dan Haren (ARI), Cole Hamels (PHI), Edinson Volquez (CIN), Johan Santana (NYM), Aaron Cook (COL), Kerry Wood (CHC), Billy Wagner (NYM) and Brad Lidge (PHI).
C: Soto and Brian McCann (ATL)
1B: Berkman, Pujols, Gonzalez
2B: Utley, Dan Uggla (FLA)
3B: Jones, David Wright (NYM)
SS: Ramirez, Jose Reyes (NYM), Jimmy Rollins (PHI)
OF: Soriano (injured), Fukudome, Griffey, Jr., McLouth, Ryan Braun (MIL), Matt Holliday (COL), Carlos Lee (HOU)
So there's your 31 + one - Carlos Lee for an injured Soriano. Rollins is the shakiest choice here, but I can't imagine the previous year's MVP getting left out of the All-Star Game. My pick for the starting pitcher would be either Lincecum or Volquez on merit, or Webb on reputation.
There are certainly some snubs here, and there are certainly guys on the snub list who could be named and I wouldn't be too surprised. They are: Ryan Dempster (P, CHI), Tim Hudson (P, ATL), Jonathan Sanchez (P, SF), Chad Billingsley (P, LA), Kyle Lohse (P, STL), Jake Peavy (P, SD), Francisco Cordero (P, CIN), Jose Valverde (P, HOU), Russell Martin (C, LA), Derrek Lee (1B, CHC), Mark Teixeira (1B, ATL), Brandon Phillips (2B, CIN), Aramis Ramirez (3B, CHC), Corey Hart (OF, MIL), Jason Bay (PIT) and Adam Dunn (OF, CIN).
I think Peavy gets left out this year because of his DL stint. He just doesn't have the innings pitched, and the statistical bulk that comes with it, that he would normally have. Elsewhere, I think Martin gets left out in favor of teammate Saito to give the NL enough relievers, and partially because of Soto as well. Bay gets left out because teammate McLouth is a better fit in the sense that he plays center and most of the other NL outfielders don't - Fukudome and Griffey can, but as a habit they are corner guys. Other guys here sort of fit into a couple of different categories - close, but not close enough, not recognizable enough, too young or a combination of those. Overall, this is a pretty good team. The NL may lack in quantity of quality, but the cream of the crop is pretty substantial. Unlike the American League, where first base has become sort of a black hole, the NL has standout talent at every position.
The snub list will have four more names on it - the four players who are not selected in the Final Vote. Here are my five candidates, which I sort of picked at random:
Pat Burrell (OF, PHI)
Ryan Howard (1B, PHI)
Ryan Ludwick (OF, STL)
Xavier Nady/Jason Bay (OF, PIT)
Carlos Zambrano (P, CHC)
I expect Zambrano to win this vote, giving the NL 15 pitchers. Assuming that happens, here is how the NL roster breaks out by team:
# players: team
5: CHC
4: NYM, PHI
2: ARI, ATL, CIN, COL, FLA, HOU, MIL
1: LAD, PIT, STL, SD, SF, WAS
No comments:
Post a Comment