Using the same format as in the National League, let's get right into the American League. The one difference from the NL is that for the AL, fans vote for the designated hitter as well. The likely voted in AL starters are:
C: Joe Mauer, MIN
1B: Kevin Youkilis, BOS
2B: Dustin Pedroia, BOS
3B: Alex Rodriguez, NYY
SS: Derek Jeter, NYY
OF: Manny Ramirez, BOS
OF: Josh Hamilton, TEX
OF: Ichiro Suziki, SEA
DH: David Ortiz, BOS
The main question for the AL and its manager, Terry Francona is this: how many Red Sox is too many? David Ortiz does the team a favor in a way, since he is injured, he will technically count on their team total but won't play, opening up another slot. But with Jonathan Papelbon seemingly a lock, and with a dearth of starters having quality seasons, Josh Beckett figures to go in as well. This leaves Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew, guys who are arguably more deserving than Youkilis and Pedroia, as odd men out due to the vagaries of positional strength in the AL.
Next, let's take a look at the "one-pers." For Tampa, we have Evan Longoria, as well as George Sherrill on Baltimore, Roy Halladay on Toronto, Magglio Ordonez on Detroit, Joakim Soria on Kansas City, Justin Duchscherer on Oakland and Ichiro. Here, Longoria is crucial. Despite having the AL's best record, Tampa does not have a clear cut All-Star. They have a lot of very good players, with Longoria and Carl Crawford standing out the most - though Crawford more so because he was on the squad last year.
Rounding out the roster, we have:
P: Sherrill, Halladay, Soria, Duchscherer, Beckett, Papelbon, Cliff Lee (CLE), C.C. Sabathia (CLE), John Lackey (LAA), Mike Mussina (NYY), Joe Saunders (LAA), Francisco Rodriguez (LAA), Mariano Rivera (NYY)
C: Mauer, A.J. Pierzynski (CHW)
1B: Youkilis, Justin Morneau (MIN)
2B: Pedroia, Ian Kinsler (TEX)
3B: Rodriguez, Longoria
SS: Jeter, Michael Young (TEX)
OF: Ramirez, Hamilton, Suziki, Ordonez, Vladimir Guerrero (LAA), Jermaine Dye (CHW), Grady Sizemore (CLE)
DH: Ortiz (injured), Milton Bradley (TEX)
So there is your 31 plus one, with Bradley being named the replacement for Ortiz. Given his nature, I won't be surprised if someone besides Bradley is named, someone like a Bob Abreu or Jose Guillen, but Bradley is the most deserving. At this point, it seems pretty clear that Cliff Lee will be the starting pitcher.
On the snub list, we have: Joe Nathan (MIN), Ervin Santana (LAA), John Danks (CHW), Gavin Floyd (CHW), Javier Vazquez (CHW), James Shields (TB), Scott Kazmir (TB), Zack Greinke (KC), Rich Harden (OAK), Jonathan Lester (BOS), Felix Hernandez (SEA), Placido Polanco (DET), Brian Roberts (BAL), Mike Lowell (BOS), J.D. Drew (BOS), David Dejesus (KC), Jose Guillen (KC), Bob Abreu (NYY), Carlos Quentin (CHW) and Carl Crawford (TB).
Obviously, a couple of players that are on the disabled list right now - J.J. Putz (SEA) and Chien Ming-Wang (NYY) would be good candidates if not hurt, but they are. I think Santana and Nathan would be a strong candidates to go and their snubs likely the worst, but Santana is a victim of his own teammates and Nathan a victim of Soria and Sherrill's one-per-dness. However, Nathan is one of my candidates in the Final Vote:
Joe Nathan (P, MIN)
Scott Kazmir (P, TB)
David Dejesus (OF, KC)
Carlos Quentin (OF, CHW)
Carl Crawford (OF, TB)
I would think either Crawford or Quentin would take this home, but since Chicago is the biggest market on this list, I will go with Quentin. With him in the fold, this gives us the following breakout by team:
6: BOS
4: LAA, NYY, TEX
3: CHW, CLE
2: MIN
1: BAL, DET, KC, OAK, SEA, TB, TOR
The AL is much more top-heavy than the NL, with six teams having three or more players in my estimation, compared with only three such teams in the NL. There are also a lot of "meh" selections, as the second best player for most of the AL players are not real great candidates. This will once again be a case of the AL's top talent battling the NL's depth, and with the game in Yankee Stadium expect the Yankees like A-Rod and Jeter to play significant innings. Also, I won't be surprised to see tweeners like Abreu or Joba Chamberlain get selected, even though Chamberlain's different roles sort of preclude him from selection in my opinion.
I will check back in this week to see what I got right and what I got wrong. I'm hoping for better than 60% accuracy!
C: Joe Mauer, MIN
1B: Kevin Youkilis, BOS
2B: Dustin Pedroia, BOS
3B: Alex Rodriguez, NYY
SS: Derek Jeter, NYY
OF: Manny Ramirez, BOS
OF: Josh Hamilton, TEX
OF: Ichiro Suziki, SEA
DH: David Ortiz, BOS
The main question for the AL and its manager, Terry Francona is this: how many Red Sox is too many? David Ortiz does the team a favor in a way, since he is injured, he will technically count on their team total but won't play, opening up another slot. But with Jonathan Papelbon seemingly a lock, and with a dearth of starters having quality seasons, Josh Beckett figures to go in as well. This leaves Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew, guys who are arguably more deserving than Youkilis and Pedroia, as odd men out due to the vagaries of positional strength in the AL.
Next, let's take a look at the "one-pers." For Tampa, we have Evan Longoria, as well as George Sherrill on Baltimore, Roy Halladay on Toronto, Magglio Ordonez on Detroit, Joakim Soria on Kansas City, Justin Duchscherer on Oakland and Ichiro. Here, Longoria is crucial. Despite having the AL's best record, Tampa does not have a clear cut All-Star. They have a lot of very good players, with Longoria and Carl Crawford standing out the most - though Crawford more so because he was on the squad last year.
Rounding out the roster, we have:
P: Sherrill, Halladay, Soria, Duchscherer, Beckett, Papelbon, Cliff Lee (CLE), C.C. Sabathia (CLE), John Lackey (LAA), Mike Mussina (NYY), Joe Saunders (LAA), Francisco Rodriguez (LAA), Mariano Rivera (NYY)
C: Mauer, A.J. Pierzynski (CHW)
1B: Youkilis, Justin Morneau (MIN)
2B: Pedroia, Ian Kinsler (TEX)
3B: Rodriguez, Longoria
SS: Jeter, Michael Young (TEX)
OF: Ramirez, Hamilton, Suziki, Ordonez, Vladimir Guerrero (LAA), Jermaine Dye (CHW), Grady Sizemore (CLE)
DH: Ortiz (injured), Milton Bradley (TEX)
So there is your 31 plus one, with Bradley being named the replacement for Ortiz. Given his nature, I won't be surprised if someone besides Bradley is named, someone like a Bob Abreu or Jose Guillen, but Bradley is the most deserving. At this point, it seems pretty clear that Cliff Lee will be the starting pitcher.
On the snub list, we have: Joe Nathan (MIN), Ervin Santana (LAA), John Danks (CHW), Gavin Floyd (CHW), Javier Vazquez (CHW), James Shields (TB), Scott Kazmir (TB), Zack Greinke (KC), Rich Harden (OAK), Jonathan Lester (BOS), Felix Hernandez (SEA), Placido Polanco (DET), Brian Roberts (BAL), Mike Lowell (BOS), J.D. Drew (BOS), David Dejesus (KC), Jose Guillen (KC), Bob Abreu (NYY), Carlos Quentin (CHW) and Carl Crawford (TB).
Obviously, a couple of players that are on the disabled list right now - J.J. Putz (SEA) and Chien Ming-Wang (NYY) would be good candidates if not hurt, but they are. I think Santana and Nathan would be a strong candidates to go and their snubs likely the worst, but Santana is a victim of his own teammates and Nathan a victim of Soria and Sherrill's one-per-dness. However, Nathan is one of my candidates in the Final Vote:
Joe Nathan (P, MIN)
Scott Kazmir (P, TB)
David Dejesus (OF, KC)
Carlos Quentin (OF, CHW)
Carl Crawford (OF, TB)
I would think either Crawford or Quentin would take this home, but since Chicago is the biggest market on this list, I will go with Quentin. With him in the fold, this gives us the following breakout by team:
6: BOS
4: LAA, NYY, TEX
3: CHW, CLE
2: MIN
1: BAL, DET, KC, OAK, SEA, TB, TOR
The AL is much more top-heavy than the NL, with six teams having three or more players in my estimation, compared with only three such teams in the NL. There are also a lot of "meh" selections, as the second best player for most of the AL players are not real great candidates. This will once again be a case of the AL's top talent battling the NL's depth, and with the game in Yankee Stadium expect the Yankees like A-Rod and Jeter to play significant innings. Also, I won't be surprised to see tweeners like Abreu or Joba Chamberlain get selected, even though Chamberlain's different roles sort of preclude him from selection in my opinion.
I will check back in this week to see what I got right and what I got wrong. I'm hoping for better than 60% accuracy!
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