We've seen this before. The last time Manny Ramirez was a free agent, his agent Scott Boras dragged out the process until March, before Ramirez resigned with the Dodgers. At the time, he was coming off a torrid second half after joining the Dodgers, and parlayed that into a two-year, $40 million deal. Since then, Manny has seemingly been in decline. However, had he accumulated enough plate appearances to qualify for leader boards last year, Ramirez's .409 OBP would have ranked fifth in the Majors, behind only Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. In case you forgot, these were the top two finishers in each league's MVP race last season. By advanced metrics, he did well also - a .330 TAv with the Dodgers, and a .286 mark in limited action with the White Sox. His wOBA of .382 ranked 23rd in the Majors (minimum 300 PAs). The power might not be where it once was, but Ramirez still gets on base at an extraordinary clip. And his on-base numbers weren't overly inflated by intentional walks, as he only had four last year. Bottom line, a lot of teams could use Ramirez's on-base prowess, and if his power comes back at all, he could easily be a steal on a one-year, $10 million, two year, $25 million type deal.
But while there are plenty of teams that could use him, like the Giants for instance, there aren't a lot of teams that can conceivably fit him on their roster. For instance, the Giants outfield already has Mark DeRosa, Pat Burrell, Cody Ross, Andres Torres and Aaron Rowand, so they probably aren't going to be in on Ramirez. Here are the teams that could use his bat and have room for him, from worst fit to best fit:
10. Atlanta: Atlanta still needs a bat, but it's not obvious where the fit is here. The one opening is center field, as Nate McLouth shouldn't be handed a job at this point. But moving Heyward or Prado to center is a tricky proposition. You could stick Ramirez at first as well, but then that's blocking Freddie Freeman. Not the end of the world certainly, but then again, Ramirez has never played first.
9. Chicago Cubs: Kosuke Fukudome was actually been a poor man's version of Ramirez's 2010 season offensively, but with better defense, so the fit here isn't tremendous. But it's the kind of situation you could see Ramirez thriving in, and it's the kind of deal you could see Jim
8. San Diego: Will Venable probably shouldn't be handed the right field job. The Pads could easily slide Ryan Ludwick from left field to right, and plug Ramirez in. I have San Diego ranked a little lower since they are less likely to contend this season given the trade of Adrian Gonzalez, though I love how the Pads have remade their up the middle positions this winter. In fact, look for an article on that soon.
7. Colorado: The Rockies spent the last two months of the season claiming Seth Smith didn't deserve a starting job, and Ryan Spilborghs has certainly shown himself not capable of holding down a starting job. The Rockies also went out and signed Ty Wigginton this offseason, but Wigginton, to be polite, is not the answer there either. So the Rockies do have an outfield hole. The Rox could easily slide Gonzalez over to right field and plug Ramirez into left. But file that under "probably won't happen."
6. Tampa Bay: Matt Joyce at DH is probably fine. Desmond Jennings in LF is probably fine. Sean Rodriguez at second base is probably fine, thereby lessening the need for Ben Zobrist to log infield duty. But if the Rays want to protect any of those players, Ramirez and his .623 career SLG at Tropicana Field would fit well there.
5. Philadelphia: The Phillies are clearly pushing all in this season. So it really doesn't make a lot of sense that they will have an ancient Raul Ibanez in one outfield corner and a rookie (Dominic Brown) in the other. And since both hit left-handed, Ramirez would make a perfect platoon partner.
4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Their listed DH's are Mike Napoli and Howie Kendrick, who ostensibly have other positions. Peter Bourjos dominated Triple-A last season, but his 193 Major League PA's were uninspiring to say the least, so he may not be ready to handle center full-time, which would push Torrii Hunter back to the middle. Couple that with the fact that the Angels have been left out in the cold this winter, and they may start to feel pressure to do something here. That something really should be Adrian Beltre, but the Halos have so little offense that they have room for both. Originally, I had Anaheim first, but I bumped them back to fourth due to Juan Rivera, who lessens Ramirez's outfield value to the Halos.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers could actually use Ramirez back at Chavez Ravine, unless they really are planning on running out Jay Gibbons and Tony Gwynn, Jr. in left field in 2011.
2. Texas: This is probably my favorite fit. I realize the Rangers just played this game with Vlad The Impaler last season, but even with his balky hamstrings, Ramirez is more mobile than Guerrero was, making him less of an albatross in games in National League parks, or just when other guys need a day off. With Josh Hamilton still more than capable of manning center field, Ramirez and David Murphy could trade off playing left and DH'ing, with Julio Borbon getting fill-in starts in center when Hamilton needs a breather.
1. Detroit: Brennan Boesch is not the answer in left field, nor is Ryan Raburn. The Tigers have spent some coin this offseason, but are still an underdog to the White Sox, and perhaps to the Twins as well, depending on how Justin Morneau comes back. On days that Ramirez needed to rest his legs, you could let him DH, give Boesch or Raburn a spot start, and slide Victor Martinez back behind the dish. A lineup core of Cabrera, Martinez, Ramirez and Magglio Ordonez would be pretty tasty, and would rival what the White Sox are putting on the field.
So there you have it - ten teams that could use Manny Ramirez this offseason. Who will it be? Hopefully, this time we find out before March.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Madison Square Garden
This is a little belated, but last Friday night I got to drink in Madison Square Garden for the first time. I was in town to see family, and was swinging into the city at the last minute for an interview with what turned out to be my future employer. When I told my good friend and college roommate Kevin of my impending arrival, he said, 'boy, too bad the prices for the Heat-Knicks game are so expensive, that would be fun to go to.' I agreed, and we moved on. Thirty minutes later, he emailed that he had found tickets. So much for them being too expensive - though he wouldn't tell me how much he paid. Like I cared - I was going to my first game at MSG! And it was against the Heat, so I didn't even have to root against the Knicks, which was a double bonus (like a double rainbow, but not as fruity).
I finished my interview just in time to change and hustle over to the Garden. The first impressive thing? Security. They managed to inspect everyone coming through without creating a traffic jam, an impressive feat for an outfit in New York City. Tickets - same thing. Everyone got right in. We were on the escalators for what seemed like forever, but then we realized we had actually gone up one level too far.
After getting to the right level, we decided to grab a beer and head for our seats. The beers were $9 a piece, which was steep, but I gladly picked them up seeing as how Kevin had sprung for the tickets. Our seats were in the very last row of the 300 level, but the view was still more than good. A couple of people around me were using binoculars, but I thought that was pointless. Even from the distance, and with my poor eyesight, I could read the names and numbers on the backs of the player's jerseys. That may have been the best part of MSG right there. Even in the bad seats, you were still pretty much right on top of the action. When the crowd got loud at the start of the game, it was absolutely electric.
The first quarter was filled with lead changes, exciting dunks and breathtaking threes. The Knicks got down a bit at the end of the quarter, and sensing that it might be time for the starters to take a breather, I grabbed the opportunity to get us food (and more beer of course). I ended up missing the first five minutes of the quarter, as I ordered hot dogs that still needed some time to cook, but the girl behind the register, Renee R., was incredibly polite about the situation. I dare say that I have rarely, if ever, received better customer service at a sports venue. At this point, I was basically ready to give MSG a solid A - good seating bowl, good atmosphere, good service, good times. I wish I could say the same for the Knicks.
After mounting a furious comeback to tie the game at halftime, the Knicks came out ice cold in the second half. Amar'e Stoudemire wouldn't drive the lane, which is a major issue for the Knicks. He is their only inside prescience, and when he is settling for 15-foot jumpers, it clogs up the perimeter and makes it harder for the Knicks' wing players to score. And that's exactly what happened. The Knicks were outscored 33-17 in the third quarter, and the Heat cruised from there. Looking at the box score afterward on Kevin's phone, we were amazed that LeBron James was credited with nine misses, because it didn't seem like he had missed all game. Without Stoudemire unwilling to kick it up a notch, the Knicks were forced to turn to Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler, and they were no match for LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. But while on the hardwood, the Knicks didn't fulfill their expectations, everywhere else, MSG certainly lived up to its billing as the "most famous arena in the world."
I finished my interview just in time to change and hustle over to the Garden. The first impressive thing? Security. They managed to inspect everyone coming through without creating a traffic jam, an impressive feat for an outfit in New York City. Tickets - same thing. Everyone got right in. We were on the escalators for what seemed like forever, but then we realized we had actually gone up one level too far.
After getting to the right level, we decided to grab a beer and head for our seats. The beers were $9 a piece, which was steep, but I gladly picked them up seeing as how Kevin had sprung for the tickets. Our seats were in the very last row of the 300 level, but the view was still more than good. A couple of people around me were using binoculars, but I thought that was pointless. Even from the distance, and with my poor eyesight, I could read the names and numbers on the backs of the player's jerseys. That may have been the best part of MSG right there. Even in the bad seats, you were still pretty much right on top of the action. When the crowd got loud at the start of the game, it was absolutely electric.
The first quarter was filled with lead changes, exciting dunks and breathtaking threes. The Knicks got down a bit at the end of the quarter, and sensing that it might be time for the starters to take a breather, I grabbed the opportunity to get us food (and more beer of course). I ended up missing the first five minutes of the quarter, as I ordered hot dogs that still needed some time to cook, but the girl behind the register, Renee R., was incredibly polite about the situation. I dare say that I have rarely, if ever, received better customer service at a sports venue. At this point, I was basically ready to give MSG a solid A - good seating bowl, good atmosphere, good service, good times. I wish I could say the same for the Knicks.
After mounting a furious comeback to tie the game at halftime, the Knicks came out ice cold in the second half. Amar'e Stoudemire wouldn't drive the lane, which is a major issue for the Knicks. He is their only inside prescience, and when he is settling for 15-foot jumpers, it clogs up the perimeter and makes it harder for the Knicks' wing players to score. And that's exactly what happened. The Knicks were outscored 33-17 in the third quarter, and the Heat cruised from there. Looking at the box score afterward on Kevin's phone, we were amazed that LeBron James was credited with nine misses, because it didn't seem like he had missed all game. Without Stoudemire unwilling to kick it up a notch, the Knicks were forced to turn to Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler, and they were no match for LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. But while on the hardwood, the Knicks didn't fulfill their expectations, everywhere else, MSG certainly lived up to its billing as the "most famous arena in the world."
Monday, December 13, 2010
The Pats Pass Defense Isn't THAT Bad
Common wisdom this season is that the Patriots have an abysmal pass defense. After all, they have allowed 3,460 yards through the air, which right now, is the worst in the league, but unless the Texans allow less than 11 yards through the air it will rank 31st in the league come tomorrow morning. On a per game basis, the Pats are allowing 266 yards through the air in each game, which again, is second worst in the league. That's pretty bad, but one problem you encounter when you look at bulk stats is that they provide little context. In the Patriots case, the context is this: in 10 of the Patriots 11 wins, they have had a fourth quarter lead of 10 or more points. Pop quiz: when teams are down 10 or more points in the fourth quarter, what do they do? Answer: they throw the ball. A lot. And so it has been for the Patriots this season. Here are the yardage totals accumulated by the aforementioned 10 teams while they trailed by 10 or more in the fourth quarter against the Pats this season:
TEAM YARDS
CIN 98
BUF 70
MIA 66
SD 123
MIN 99
PIT 252
IND 90
DET 83
NYJ 47
CHI 56
TOTAL 984
The Pittsburgh total is staggering. Trailing 23-3 entering the fourth quarter, the Steelers tacked on three fourth quarter touchdowns, none of which brought them closer than 10 points behind. In fact, with the clock running out, and the Steelers down 13, with no hope of winning, the Steelers ran the clock down to zero by passing for an additional 68 yards. They reached the New England seven, which I'm sure thrilled Ben Roethlisberger fantasy owners, but did absolutely nothing to win them the game.
Altogether, these 984 passing yards allowed represent 28.44 percent of the total passing yards allowed by the Pats this season. That's a pretty large total, and one that makes the bulk total allowed seem a bit more reasonable. You can't hand waive the 984 yards. After all, they DID allow the yards, and in two cases - San Diego and Indy - legitimately allowed the teams back in the game to the point where each had a chance to tie or win in the final seconds. However, given this data, it's also not fair to say that the Pats have the worst pass defense in the league either.
Through games played yesterday, the Pats have the 5th best interception rate in the league, as they have intercepted an even 4 percent of the passes thrown against them (20 of 500). Now, they have had more opportunities, as those 500 attempts are most in the league, but they are getting to balls. Not that I'm suggesting the Pats have the 5th best pass defense in the league, I'm not. I think they fall in the 20's somewhere. Through week 13, Football Outsiders had the Pats pass defense ranked 26th, and through yesterday, the Pats yards allowed pass rank was 22nd. Neither of these are particularly sterling marks, but I think that their true rank is somewhere between those two figures. It's a young, gambling defense that can hurt the team but also generate the big play. It's among the worst in the league, but having big leads has unfairly fueled a far too negative perception of the Pats pass defense overall.
TEAM YARDS
CIN 98
BUF 70
MIA 66
SD 123
MIN 99
PIT 252
IND 90
DET 83
NYJ 47
CHI 56
TOTAL 984
The Pittsburgh total is staggering. Trailing 23-3 entering the fourth quarter, the Steelers tacked on three fourth quarter touchdowns, none of which brought them closer than 10 points behind. In fact, with the clock running out, and the Steelers down 13, with no hope of winning, the Steelers ran the clock down to zero by passing for an additional 68 yards. They reached the New England seven, which I'm sure thrilled Ben Roethlisberger fantasy owners, but did absolutely nothing to win them the game.
Altogether, these 984 passing yards allowed represent 28.44 percent of the total passing yards allowed by the Pats this season. That's a pretty large total, and one that makes the bulk total allowed seem a bit more reasonable. You can't hand waive the 984 yards. After all, they DID allow the yards, and in two cases - San Diego and Indy - legitimately allowed the teams back in the game to the point where each had a chance to tie or win in the final seconds. However, given this data, it's also not fair to say that the Pats have the worst pass defense in the league either.
Through games played yesterday, the Pats have the 5th best interception rate in the league, as they have intercepted an even 4 percent of the passes thrown against them (20 of 500). Now, they have had more opportunities, as those 500 attempts are most in the league, but they are getting to balls. Not that I'm suggesting the Pats have the 5th best pass defense in the league, I'm not. I think they fall in the 20's somewhere. Through week 13, Football Outsiders had the Pats pass defense ranked 26th, and through yesterday, the Pats yards allowed pass rank was 22nd. Neither of these are particularly sterling marks, but I think that their true rank is somewhere between those two figures. It's a young, gambling defense that can hurt the team but also generate the big play. It's among the worst in the league, but having big leads has unfairly fueled a far too negative perception of the Pats pass defense overall.
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Why Is Nobody Talking About The San Antonio Spurs?
On ESPN.com, Marc Stein gets 1,811 into his "Weekend Dime" before he talks about the Spurs. On SI.com, the top 2 headlines are about Derrick Rose and George Karl, and the only columnist tackling the Spurs on their NBA page is a narrow look at Gary Neal, by Lee Jenkins. The Spurs are not one of the top five headlines right now on NBA.com. On Foxsports.com NBA page there is finally an article about the fact that the Spurs, not the Lakers, Celtics or Heat, are the only team currently on pace for 70 wins. Of course, it's buried underneath a story on Phil Jackson losing to the Bulls, and the Heat getting their groove back. Maybe it's because the Spurs are "boring." Maybe it's because no one has ever cared about Tim Duncan. Maybe it's because people are afraid to praise Tony Parker since his divorce story broke. Maybe it's because the Spurs have yet to play the big three teams. Or maybe it's because people are sleeping on the San Antonio Spurs.
The Spurs though, should be the story right now. After ripping off four straight wins, the Spurs 19-3 mark currently stands atop the NBA. There are a lot of reasons to say that it's not a fluke either. For starters, their point differential of 9.6 is tops in the league. The Spurs are third in scoring, and though they are allowing more points than a typical Spurs team, they are still a very respectable 11th in points allowed. But while allowing 97.3 points per game seems like blasphemy for the team that twice in the Popovich reign has allowed less than 85 points per game, the Spurs actually allowed 96.3 points per game last season, so this shouldn't be a huge surprise. No, the surprise is the offense. Last year's Spurs team was the first under Popovich to average more than 100 points per game, as they scored an average of 101.4. But this year's squad is blowing that out of the water, at 107.0, a mark bettered only by the run 'n' gun squads in Phoenix and New York.
Looking at the offense, this also doesn't seem like a fluke. The Spurs have scored 100 or better in 16 of their 22 contests, and there is also no ridiculous game artificially pushing their average up. Their high is 124, but that was in an overtime game. Their regular time high is 122, against the Pacers in their first game of the season. Taking the 16 games in which they've topped 100 points as a whole, they are averaging 111.6 points, and 11 of the 16 games have been within +/- five points of that average, showing just how consistent they have been. And while the schedule hasn't been brutal, it wouldn't offend Gordon Gee either. The Spurs have put up 106 on Orlando, the league's third-best defensive team (in terms of points allowed), and twice have dropped 109 on New Orleans, the league's second-best defensive team. They also dropped 117 in Oklahoma City, and 103 on the Bulls, a team that is currently being celebrated for holding the Lakers to 84.
Have the Spurs had their fair share of cream puffs on the schedule? Absolutely. They have twice beat the Clippers, Timberwolves and Warriors, and have also taken the 76ers and Cavaliers to the woodshed, so this new Spurs offensive juggernaut is far from assured over the course of 82 games. But with Richard Jefferson hooked up to the juvenation machine ($1, Simmons) Tim Duncan has been pushed to an unfathomable fourth in points per game on his own team (he's never finished lower than second). That right there is as good a reason as any to believe this will continue. The Spurs are averaging 107 points per game, and Duncan is only contributing 13.6 a game. This is a team that routinely needed 22 out of Duncan just to get to 95 a game. And while that 107 a game may eventually dip to 105 or 103, this is uncharted, and more importantly, exciting water for the Popovich-Duncan Spurs. So how come nobody is talking about it?
The Spurs though, should be the story right now. After ripping off four straight wins, the Spurs 19-3 mark currently stands atop the NBA. There are a lot of reasons to say that it's not a fluke either. For starters, their point differential of 9.6 is tops in the league. The Spurs are third in scoring, and though they are allowing more points than a typical Spurs team, they are still a very respectable 11th in points allowed. But while allowing 97.3 points per game seems like blasphemy for the team that twice in the Popovich reign has allowed less than 85 points per game, the Spurs actually allowed 96.3 points per game last season, so this shouldn't be a huge surprise. No, the surprise is the offense. Last year's Spurs team was the first under Popovich to average more than 100 points per game, as they scored an average of 101.4. But this year's squad is blowing that out of the water, at 107.0, a mark bettered only by the run 'n' gun squads in Phoenix and New York.
Looking at the offense, this also doesn't seem like a fluke. The Spurs have scored 100 or better in 16 of their 22 contests, and there is also no ridiculous game artificially pushing their average up. Their high is 124, but that was in an overtime game. Their regular time high is 122, against the Pacers in their first game of the season. Taking the 16 games in which they've topped 100 points as a whole, they are averaging 111.6 points, and 11 of the 16 games have been within +/- five points of that average, showing just how consistent they have been. And while the schedule hasn't been brutal, it wouldn't offend Gordon Gee either. The Spurs have put up 106 on Orlando, the league's third-best defensive team (in terms of points allowed), and twice have dropped 109 on New Orleans, the league's second-best defensive team. They also dropped 117 in Oklahoma City, and 103 on the Bulls, a team that is currently being celebrated for holding the Lakers to 84.
Have the Spurs had their fair share of cream puffs on the schedule? Absolutely. They have twice beat the Clippers, Timberwolves and Warriors, and have also taken the 76ers and Cavaliers to the woodshed, so this new Spurs offensive juggernaut is far from assured over the course of 82 games. But with Richard Jefferson hooked up to the juvenation machine ($1, Simmons) Tim Duncan has been pushed to an unfathomable fourth in points per game on his own team (he's never finished lower than second). That right there is as good a reason as any to believe this will continue. The Spurs are averaging 107 points per game, and Duncan is only contributing 13.6 a game. This is a team that routinely needed 22 out of Duncan just to get to 95 a game. And while that 107 a game may eventually dip to 105 or 103, this is uncharted, and more importantly, exciting water for the Popovich-Duncan Spurs. So how come nobody is talking about it?
Wednesday, December 08, 2010
Examining the Red Sox Roster, Part 1
With the big news breaking that Carl Crawford is on the verge of signing a seven-year, $142 million deal with the Red Sox, it's about time we took a look at how the Red Sox 25-man roster shakes out as currently constituted. I'll include Crawford and Jason Varitek in the discussion even though their deals are not yet official. As with the piece on the Rockies, this is just focused on players currently on the team. As such, I've changed the title of the post from "handicapping" to "examining," as that seems a little more apt. Here's what I have:
1 SP Jon Lester
2 SP Clay Buchholz
3 SP Josh Beckett
4 SP John Lackey
5 SP Daisuke Matsuzaka
6 RP Jonathan Papelbon
7 RP Daniel Bard
8 RP Tim Wakefield
9 RP Scott Atchison
10 RP Felix Doubront
11 RP Stolmy Pimentel
12 RP Michael Bowden
13 C Jason Varitek
14 1B Adrian Gonzalez
15 2B Dustin Pedroia
16 3B Kevin Youkilis
17 SS Marco Scutaro
18 LF Carl Crawford
19 CF Jacoby Ellsbury
20 RF JD Drew
21 DH David Ortiz
22 Bench Jarrod Saltalamacchia
23 Bench Mike Cameron
24 Bench Darnell McDonald
25 Bench Jed Lowrie
At this point in the offseason, it's fairly plain that the bullpen is going to be an issue. The Sox are likely to pick up at least one more bullpen arm, but even if they get two more, Tim Wakefield is going to be a prized asset in the bullpen, assuming the five starters stay healthy (a big assumption). While Felix Doubront and Stolmy Pimentel were ranked by Baseball America as the 8th and 9th best prospect in the Red Sox system for 2011, I doubt they will be counted on to have an impact right away. And though Michael Bowden pitched better in September - he compiled a 3.86 ERA across 9 1/3 innings - he's been little more than an injury replacement/September call-up the last two years, so it is a stretch to think that he would be counted upon or handed a job right away either. Of course, the Sox may not have any choice.
But where there may be uncertainty on the pitching side of the equation, the offense is looking pretty stacked. They have the luxury of either trading an outfielder and slotting Kalish on to the big-league team, or simply keeping the uber-talented Kalish in Pawtucket to start the season. The team's short bench will be good to great, depending on how you feel about Saltalamacchia. And the lineup...wow:
LF Crawford
2B Pedroia
1B Gonzalez
3B Youkilis
DH Ortiz
RF Drew
C Varitek
CF Ellsbury
SS Scutaro
A second variation would have Ellsbury moving to leadoff, Crawford to fifth, and Ortiz, Drew and Varitek all moving down one spot, but I like Crawford better in the leadoff spot. Also, despite claims that the Sox would get too left-handed if they acquired both Crawford and Gonzalez, the above lineup goes L-R-L-R-L, making it damn near impossible to navigate the top of the lineup with a single reliever (unless the reliever is Mariano Rivera). It's a recipe for success the Sox used in 2003, times 15. In 2003, they were counting on castoffs like Jeremy Giambi, Bill Mueller and Ortiz. If this is indeed the top six in the Sox batting order, it's a top six that has seen each player spend time hitting third, and in the case of Crawford, Gonzalez, Ortiz and Drew, significant time. That's pretty rare. And pretty exciting, something the 2010 Sox most definitely were not.
1 SP Jon Lester
2 SP Clay Buchholz
3 SP Josh Beckett
4 SP John Lackey
5 SP Daisuke Matsuzaka
6 RP Jonathan Papelbon
7 RP Daniel Bard
8 RP Tim Wakefield
9 RP Scott Atchison
10 RP Felix Doubront
11 RP Stolmy Pimentel
12 RP Michael Bowden
13 C Jason Varitek
14 1B Adrian Gonzalez
15 2B Dustin Pedroia
16 3B Kevin Youkilis
17 SS Marco Scutaro
18 LF Carl Crawford
19 CF Jacoby Ellsbury
20 RF JD Drew
21 DH David Ortiz
22 Bench Jarrod Saltalamacchia
23 Bench Mike Cameron
24 Bench Darnell McDonald
25 Bench Jed Lowrie
At this point in the offseason, it's fairly plain that the bullpen is going to be an issue. The Sox are likely to pick up at least one more bullpen arm, but even if they get two more, Tim Wakefield is going to be a prized asset in the bullpen, assuming the five starters stay healthy (a big assumption). While Felix Doubront and Stolmy Pimentel were ranked by Baseball America as the 8th and 9th best prospect in the Red Sox system for 2011, I doubt they will be counted on to have an impact right away. And though Michael Bowden pitched better in September - he compiled a 3.86 ERA across 9 1/3 innings - he's been little more than an injury replacement/September call-up the last two years, so it is a stretch to think that he would be counted upon or handed a job right away either. Of course, the Sox may not have any choice.
But where there may be uncertainty on the pitching side of the equation, the offense is looking pretty stacked. They have the luxury of either trading an outfielder and slotting Kalish on to the big-league team, or simply keeping the uber-talented Kalish in Pawtucket to start the season. The team's short bench will be good to great, depending on how you feel about Saltalamacchia. And the lineup...wow:
LF Crawford
2B Pedroia
1B Gonzalez
3B Youkilis
DH Ortiz
RF Drew
C Varitek
CF Ellsbury
SS Scutaro
A second variation would have Ellsbury moving to leadoff, Crawford to fifth, and Ortiz, Drew and Varitek all moving down one spot, but I like Crawford better in the leadoff spot. Also, despite claims that the Sox would get too left-handed if they acquired both Crawford and Gonzalez, the above lineup goes L-R-L-R-L, making it damn near impossible to navigate the top of the lineup with a single reliever (unless the reliever is Mariano Rivera). It's a recipe for success the Sox used in 2003, times 15. In 2003, they were counting on castoffs like Jeremy Giambi, Bill Mueller and Ortiz. If this is indeed the top six in the Sox batting order, it's a top six that has seen each player spend time hitting third, and in the case of Crawford, Gonzalez, Ortiz and Drew, significant time. That's pretty rare. And pretty exciting, something the 2010 Sox most definitely were not.
Friday, December 03, 2010
Handicapping the Rockies Roster, Part 1
With the non-tenders last night, and the trade for Jose Lopez, here is my guesstimate for what the Rockies roster would look like if the season started today:
1 SP Ubaldo Jimenez
2 SP Jorge De La Rosa
3 SP Jhoulys Chacin
4 SP Felipe Paulino
5 SP Aaron Cook
6 RP Matt Belisle
7 RP Rafael Betancourt
8 RP Matt Daley
9 RP Franklin Morales
10 RP Matt Reynolds
11 RP Esmil Rogers
12 RP Huston Street
13 C Chris Iannetta
14 1B Todd Helton
15 2B Jonathan Herrera
16 3B Ian Stewart
17 SS Troy Tulowitzki
18 LF Seth Smith
19 CF Dexter Fowler
20 RF Carlos Gonzalez
21 Bench Michael McKenry
22 Bench Jose Lopez
23 Bench Chris Nelson
24 Bench Ryan Spilborghs
25 Bench Eric Young, Jr.
A couple of notes. This is strictly based on who is currently on the 40-man roster, with the exception of Jorge De La Rosa. While De La Rosa hasn't officially resigned, I slotted him in there anyway, as it seems that his contract has reached the formality stages.
You'll notice that Jason Hammel is not listed. My early prediction is that he gets moved this winter, or loses his spot in Spring Training. He could end up in the bullpen again, but I think it's starter or bust for him, and he may net a prospect or two in a trade in late March, similar to how the Rockies acquired him in the first place.
At second, I have Herrera listed, but it really could/should be an open competition. I don't believe that the trade for Jose Lopez automatically means that he will start at second, and I think Chris Nelson deserves a look as well. Eric Young, Jr. did very little to show that he deserved a starting nod, so for me there would be a gap between him and the other three.
I think that at this point the roster is mainly set. With all of the non-tendered relievers, I could see a reliever being added to challenge Daley and Rogers, and I hope to see another starter added to challenge Cook, Hammel and Paulino. I think it is likely that a back-up catcher could factor in, though I would stick with McKenry and spread the extra money around elsewhere. Finally, another bench bat could be added, something that would jeopardize the roster spot of Nelson or Young. I think with the trade of Barmes and the acquisition of Lopez, you have to consider Herrera safe for now, as the Rockies don't have another legit backup shortstop. The last time Lopez played shortstop was 2004, so I don't think he is a viable option there.
I'll look to update this more with each passing transaction. Also, look for a similar series of posts on the Red Sox roster soon.
1 SP Ubaldo Jimenez
2 SP Jorge De La Rosa
3 SP Jhoulys Chacin
4 SP Felipe Paulino
5 SP Aaron Cook
6 RP Matt Belisle
7 RP Rafael Betancourt
8 RP Matt Daley
9 RP Franklin Morales
10 RP Matt Reynolds
11 RP Esmil Rogers
12 RP Huston Street
13 C Chris Iannetta
14 1B Todd Helton
15 2B Jonathan Herrera
16 3B Ian Stewart
17 SS Troy Tulowitzki
18 LF Seth Smith
19 CF Dexter Fowler
20 RF Carlos Gonzalez
21 Bench Michael McKenry
22 Bench Jose Lopez
23 Bench Chris Nelson
24 Bench Ryan Spilborghs
25 Bench Eric Young, Jr.
A couple of notes. This is strictly based on who is currently on the 40-man roster, with the exception of Jorge De La Rosa. While De La Rosa hasn't officially resigned, I slotted him in there anyway, as it seems that his contract has reached the formality stages.
You'll notice that Jason Hammel is not listed. My early prediction is that he gets moved this winter, or loses his spot in Spring Training. He could end up in the bullpen again, but I think it's starter or bust for him, and he may net a prospect or two in a trade in late March, similar to how the Rockies acquired him in the first place.
At second, I have Herrera listed, but it really could/should be an open competition. I don't believe that the trade for Jose Lopez automatically means that he will start at second, and I think Chris Nelson deserves a look as well. Eric Young, Jr. did very little to show that he deserved a starting nod, so for me there would be a gap between him and the other three.
I think that at this point the roster is mainly set. With all of the non-tendered relievers, I could see a reliever being added to challenge Daley and Rogers, and I hope to see another starter added to challenge Cook, Hammel and Paulino. I think it is likely that a back-up catcher could factor in, though I would stick with McKenry and spread the extra money around elsewhere. Finally, another bench bat could be added, something that would jeopardize the roster spot of Nelson or Young. I think with the trade of Barmes and the acquisition of Lopez, you have to consider Herrera safe for now, as the Rockies don't have another legit backup shortstop. The last time Lopez played shortstop was 2004, so I don't think he is a viable option there.
I'll look to update this more with each passing transaction. Also, look for a similar series of posts on the Red Sox roster soon.
Thursday, December 02, 2010
Bobby Jenks
Since leaving the Rockies organization to embark on my new venture as stay-at-home dad/freelance writer, I've been in a frenzy trying to line up things to do with my son as well as possible gigs, and I really need to write up how that all came to fruition, which I will attempt to do soon. But in the interim, I haven't been paying rapt attention to my Twitter feed, so I'm a little behind on who has and has not been tendered. But one name that caught my attention this afternoon was Bobby Jenks.
Jenks seems to have fallen into the arbitration trap that teams so frequently face. He was clearly going to get a raise based on his season last year - he had enough innings pitched, and had 27+ saves for a fifth consecutive season. No matter what your opinion of his true value is, in arbitration you can only use the facts of the situation, and for relievers, the two most important factors are service time/playing time and role (closer, set-up, middle, mop-up). Jenks was going to get a raise.
Chicago didn't need to pay for that. Reports already have Matt Thornton listed as his possible successor, and Ozzie Guillen and Don Cooper have always built strong bullpens. The $9-10 million Jenks would have cost them in arbitration is probably best served being spent elsewhere, especially if Paul Konerko really does want to live closer to home in Arizona (or if they need that money for Adam Dunn). But this doesn't mean that Jenks can't be an effective reliever somewhere else at a lower price.
Looking at Jenks 2010 season, he didn't rank well in metrics like WXRL, WARP, VORP, or fWAR. His walk rate was up, and his ERA+ of 99 was a career low, and he is now two years removed from what looks like a two year peak - he had WARP's of 4.9 and 3.9 in '07 and '08, nothing higher than 2.1 in any other year. But there are also a lot of positive indicators for Jenks going forward.
For starters, he will only be 30 years old next season and has saved 27+ games in one of the largest markets in the country. There are a number of others. Let's do this bullet point style:
- His BABIP last year was .368, which was easily a career high. Looking at his batted ball data however, this scream fluke - as his line drive rate wasn't significantly higher than in any other year, and his ground ball rate was up while his fly ball rate was down. Generally, that would be a recipe for a lower BABIP. For whatever reason, his balls found holes last year. This could be related to the fact that Jenks for the first time started mixing in a changeup last year - 6.5% of the time. But his average fastball velocity didn't dip it wouldn't seem on the surface that he worked in the change up to cover for a lack of pop in his heater.
- His K/9 and K/BB rates were each the second best rates of his career.
- He only allowed three home runs despite playing in a homeriffic ballpark, and 2 of them came at the hands of the Blue Jays, who in case you hadn't heard, hit a lot of home runs last year.
- His xFIP of 2.62 was the lowest of his career and his FIP of 2.59 was only .03 off his career high ('07).
Is Bobby Jenks worth a 3 year, $22 million deal? Maybe not, but for the right price, he could absolutely be an asset for someone next season. As an aside, I also wonder if he is a victim of the hot stove's new sped-up timeline. Probably not, as he wasn't going to be worth $9-10 million this week or two weeks from now, but perhaps the quicker deadlines were a factor, if not for him, for other tender/non-tender candidates. Finally, does Jenks being on the market reduce what is seemingly already a thin trade market for Jonathan Papelbon? I would certainly think so.
Last note - looking into a new blog site. Wordpress was recommended to me. Drop me a line on Twitter - @Swydan - if you have another suggestion. Thanks!
Jenks seems to have fallen into the arbitration trap that teams so frequently face. He was clearly going to get a raise based on his season last year - he had enough innings pitched, and had 27+ saves for a fifth consecutive season. No matter what your opinion of his true value is, in arbitration you can only use the facts of the situation, and for relievers, the two most important factors are service time/playing time and role (closer, set-up, middle, mop-up). Jenks was going to get a raise.
Chicago didn't need to pay for that. Reports already have Matt Thornton listed as his possible successor, and Ozzie Guillen and Don Cooper have always built strong bullpens. The $9-10 million Jenks would have cost them in arbitration is probably best served being spent elsewhere, especially if Paul Konerko really does want to live closer to home in Arizona (or if they need that money for Adam Dunn). But this doesn't mean that Jenks can't be an effective reliever somewhere else at a lower price.
Looking at Jenks 2010 season, he didn't rank well in metrics like WXRL, WARP, VORP, or fWAR. His walk rate was up, and his ERA+ of 99 was a career low, and he is now two years removed from what looks like a two year peak - he had WARP's of 4.9 and 3.9 in '07 and '08, nothing higher than 2.1 in any other year. But there are also a lot of positive indicators for Jenks going forward.
For starters, he will only be 30 years old next season and has saved 27+ games in one of the largest markets in the country. There are a number of others. Let's do this bullet point style:
- His BABIP last year was .368, which was easily a career high. Looking at his batted ball data however, this scream fluke - as his line drive rate wasn't significantly higher than in any other year, and his ground ball rate was up while his fly ball rate was down. Generally, that would be a recipe for a lower BABIP. For whatever reason, his balls found holes last year. This could be related to the fact that Jenks for the first time started mixing in a changeup last year - 6.5% of the time. But his average fastball velocity didn't dip it wouldn't seem on the surface that he worked in the change up to cover for a lack of pop in his heater.
- His K/9 and K/BB rates were each the second best rates of his career.
- He only allowed three home runs despite playing in a homeriffic ballpark, and 2 of them came at the hands of the Blue Jays, who in case you hadn't heard, hit a lot of home runs last year.
- His xFIP of 2.62 was the lowest of his career and his FIP of 2.59 was only .03 off his career high ('07).
Is Bobby Jenks worth a 3 year, $22 million deal? Maybe not, but for the right price, he could absolutely be an asset for someone next season. As an aside, I also wonder if he is a victim of the hot stove's new sped-up timeline. Probably not, as he wasn't going to be worth $9-10 million this week or two weeks from now, but perhaps the quicker deadlines were a factor, if not for him, for other tender/non-tender candidates. Finally, does Jenks being on the market reduce what is seemingly already a thin trade market for Jonathan Papelbon? I would certainly think so.
Last note - looking into a new blog site. Wordpress was recommended to me. Drop me a line on Twitter - @Swydan - if you have another suggestion. Thanks!
Sunday, November 07, 2010
Random Thoughts on a Sunday Night
So I never wrote that World Series preview I promised, did I? The truth is, I was all geared up to break down why the Phillies (or Giants) would triumph over the Yankees, but when the Yanks were unceremoniously kicked to the curb, it sort of took the wind out of my analytical sails. But as it turns out, that was a good thing. I haven't watched a World Series in which I had no rooting interest for quite some time - probably the first since 2005. It was a wonderful experience. I only wish it had gone six or seven. But I think we have to realize that that just may not happen as much anymore thanks to the extra round of playoffs. The last year that the World Series was a best-of-nine was 1921. From 1922-1968, which was the last year before the advent of the League Championship Series, the World Series went to seven games 43% of the time (20 out of 47). Since, it has gone to seven only 32% of the time (13 out of 41). Is that a bit of small sample size theater? Probably. But I think that there's something to the theory that these days, the players are exhausted by the time they reach the World Series, and this is decreasing the likelihood of the Fall Classic reaching the sixth or seventh game. It's the best reason I can think of to not expand the playoffs.
Some other random thoughts on a Sunday night:
- This Rajon Rondo fella might make it. Nine or more assists in each of the C's first seven games, and he has the team on a roll. In an unrelated note, I was a little concerned at the outset that the O'Neal's would steal some of Perk's minutes when Perk returns in February/March, but so far those concerns are unfounded. Shaq can't stay healthy, and Jermaine O'Neal is a very animated corpse.
- One side effect to being a father is that, unless you have limitless energy - something I thought I had but have been proven dead wrong - you inevitably fall behind on pop culture. Luckily, I have built my holiday cd mixes as a safeguard against falling behind for too long, at least in terms of music, but I am definitely slacking. I still haven't picked up Drake's LP, but I'm looking forward to digesting that, as well as new material from Nicki Minaj, Rihanna, Wiz Khalifa, 7L & Esoteric, Rah Digga, that Boy George & Mark Ronson collabo and a whole slew of randomness. Oh, plus the Freddie Gibbs and Wale CD's I downloaded three months ago but still haven't listened to.
- Work will soon commence on my latest version of my favorite 100 movies. Shoo-ins include Toy Story 3, The Town and The Social Network. Also, stay tuned for my new take on Avatar.
- I was watching True Lies the other night. Whatever happened to Tia Carrere? I liked her.
- Speaking of which, Netflix and it's streaming online presence are making it really difficult to justify ever buying a DVD or Blu-Ray ever again. I added True Lies to our instant queue in approximately 26 seconds.
- After today's whupping in Cleveland, Tom Brady is just 3-8 in stateside road games since returning from being Pollard'ed. One win was last season against the Bills, a team the Patriots haven't lost to since September 7, 2003. The other two came earlier this year. In the drubbing of the Dolphins and the squeaker over the Chargers, the Patriots won with total team efforts. In them, Brady basically put up the same stat line - 19 completions, 150 yards passing (153, 159), with one TD and no picks. In other words, he wasn't leading the charge. He wasn't doing anything detrimental, but he wasn't leading the charge. Brady has hardly been himself this season, but in each game, he'll put it together for one series, which makes his numbers look good. In games where you get blocked field goals, TAINTS, or the other team forgets to play to the whistle, it's no big deal. When Peyton Hillis won't stop running over defenders though, it's a different story. The Pats need Brady to get back in top form, or they may have to draft a legit QB of the future very soon.
- I love that Microsoft Phone ad. "Really?!?"
- Random idea the other day - who says no first to a Torii Hunter for Jacoby Ellsbury and Jonathan Papelbon swap, the Sox or the Halos? Bring on the Hot Stove.
Some other random thoughts on a Sunday night:
- This Rajon Rondo fella might make it. Nine or more assists in each of the C's first seven games, and he has the team on a roll. In an unrelated note, I was a little concerned at the outset that the O'Neal's would steal some of Perk's minutes when Perk returns in February/March, but so far those concerns are unfounded. Shaq can't stay healthy, and Jermaine O'Neal is a very animated corpse.
- One side effect to being a father is that, unless you have limitless energy - something I thought I had but have been proven dead wrong - you inevitably fall behind on pop culture. Luckily, I have built my holiday cd mixes as a safeguard against falling behind for too long, at least in terms of music, but I am definitely slacking. I still haven't picked up Drake's LP, but I'm looking forward to digesting that, as well as new material from Nicki Minaj, Rihanna, Wiz Khalifa, 7L & Esoteric, Rah Digga, that Boy George & Mark Ronson collabo and a whole slew of randomness. Oh, plus the Freddie Gibbs and Wale CD's I downloaded three months ago but still haven't listened to.
- Work will soon commence on my latest version of my favorite 100 movies. Shoo-ins include Toy Story 3, The Town and The Social Network. Also, stay tuned for my new take on Avatar.
- I was watching True Lies the other night. Whatever happened to Tia Carrere? I liked her.
- Speaking of which, Netflix and it's streaming online presence are making it really difficult to justify ever buying a DVD or Blu-Ray ever again. I added True Lies to our instant queue in approximately 26 seconds.
- After today's whupping in Cleveland, Tom Brady is just 3-8 in stateside road games since returning from being Pollard'ed. One win was last season against the Bills, a team the Patriots haven't lost to since September 7, 2003. The other two came earlier this year. In the drubbing of the Dolphins and the squeaker over the Chargers, the Patriots won with total team efforts. In them, Brady basically put up the same stat line - 19 completions, 150 yards passing (153, 159), with one TD and no picks. In other words, he wasn't leading the charge. He wasn't doing anything detrimental, but he wasn't leading the charge. Brady has hardly been himself this season, but in each game, he'll put it together for one series, which makes his numbers look good. In games where you get blocked field goals, TAINTS, or the other team forgets to play to the whistle, it's no big deal. When Peyton Hillis won't stop running over defenders though, it's a different story. The Pats need Brady to get back in top form, or they may have to draft a legit QB of the future very soon.
- I love that Microsoft Phone ad. "Really?!?"
- Random idea the other day - who says no first to a Torii Hunter for Jacoby Ellsbury and Jonathan Papelbon swap, the Sox or the Halos? Bring on the Hot Stove.
Friday, October 15, 2010
LCS Preview
I was too tired when I got home last night, and am about to head out for the weekend. So here it is - the short, short version.
C.J. Wilson walked the most batters in the AL this year, and was only second in the Majors behind Jonathan Sanchez. The Yankees draw a lot of walks. I realize he just shut down the Rays, another team that draws a lot of walks, but the Yanks also hit lefties much better than the Rays did this season (.790 OPS compared to .733 for Tampa). Expect the Yanks to take Game One. Tommy Hunter was great at home this year, and had even splits against teams below and above .500, but he is still the inferior pitcher in his matchup against Phil Hughes. Expect perhaps not a pitchers duel, but a close game, and the Yanks to prevail.
In all, I see the Rangers winning only Cliff Lee's start, and for this series to end in New York. Yankees in five.
The Giants scored 11 runs in four games. Two were directly attributable to umpire error (Buster Posey's "steal" in game one and the ump completely whiffing on Omar Infante's foot being on the second base bag in game four) and two were directly attributable to Brooks Conrad's shoddy defense. Unfortunately for San Fran, the umpire calls won't go in their favor 100% of the time and Brooks Conrad was not traded to Philly in the last couple of days. Now, one could make the argument that late in games, Bruce Bochy willingly sacrificed some offense by subbing out Pat Burrell for Nate Schierholtz and Aubrey Huff for Travis Ishikawa. The Giants may find themselves needing that offense in this series, and may keep those two bats in the lineup all game, which could lead to more runs on the board for San Fran. But it will also greatly increase the chance that they make defensive miscues, making the net effect a wash. Phillies in five.
With the two series' likely to end early, expect a lot of media blather to revolve around the off-days between the LCS and the World Series. I'll be back with a more in-depth preview for the first Fall Classic rematch since the Yankees beat the Los Angeles Dodgers back-to-back in '77 and '78.
C.J. Wilson walked the most batters in the AL this year, and was only second in the Majors behind Jonathan Sanchez. The Yankees draw a lot of walks. I realize he just shut down the Rays, another team that draws a lot of walks, but the Yanks also hit lefties much better than the Rays did this season (.790 OPS compared to .733 for Tampa). Expect the Yanks to take Game One. Tommy Hunter was great at home this year, and had even splits against teams below and above .500, but he is still the inferior pitcher in his matchup against Phil Hughes. Expect perhaps not a pitchers duel, but a close game, and the Yanks to prevail.
In all, I see the Rangers winning only Cliff Lee's start, and for this series to end in New York. Yankees in five.
The Giants scored 11 runs in four games. Two were directly attributable to umpire error (Buster Posey's "steal" in game one and the ump completely whiffing on Omar Infante's foot being on the second base bag in game four) and two were directly attributable to Brooks Conrad's shoddy defense. Unfortunately for San Fran, the umpire calls won't go in their favor 100% of the time and Brooks Conrad was not traded to Philly in the last couple of days. Now, one could make the argument that late in games, Bruce Bochy willingly sacrificed some offense by subbing out Pat Burrell for Nate Schierholtz and Aubrey Huff for Travis Ishikawa. The Giants may find themselves needing that offense in this series, and may keep those two bats in the lineup all game, which could lead to more runs on the board for San Fran. But it will also greatly increase the chance that they make defensive miscues, making the net effect a wash. Phillies in five.
With the two series' likely to end early, expect a lot of media blather to revolve around the off-days between the LCS and the World Series. I'll be back with a more in-depth preview for the first Fall Classic rematch since the Yankees beat the Los Angeles Dodgers back-to-back in '77 and '78.
Tuesday, October 05, 2010
Three Aces, Two Fives & A Four
To gear up for the season, the Denver Nuggets have been once again running ads with the tag line "Can You Feel It?" And while Nuggets basketball is probably dead in the water once again, as the question of trading of Carmelo Anthony seems to have shifted from "if" to "when," I am definitely feeling the MLB playoffs. While last year's World Series participants made it back this season, the only other returning team from last October's scrum are the Minnesota Twins. And even if the Fall Classic should end in a rematch of last year, that would be alright, as it was a highly entertaining one.
I will do a full recap as to how my prognostications went overall, but it should be noted that I nailed five of the eight playoff participants this season, missing only Cincinnati, San Francisco and Tampa Bay (you could also demerit me for the fact that I had the Yankees as the AL East champ rather than the Wild Card team, but seeing as how that race went down to the last day of the season, that seems like it'd be splitting hairs). Back in April, I refrained from making postseason predictions, since it's such a crapshoot, and I will continue that trend here by simply going round by round for the playoffs.
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Looking at Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Standings, this is the second-closest series in terms of W3 and L3 (the closest, surprisingly, is Cincinnati-Philadelphia), but these two teams are really mirror images of each other. Both have a left-handed ace, both have good but not great rotations, both teams have an outstanding bullpen, both teams run well and flash good leather, both teams have a somewhat top-heavy lineup and both teams have a MVP candidate who was banged up down the stretch.
The key to this series very well may be James Shields. Since his seemingly breakthrough season of 2008, Shields has been a bit perplexing. On the plus side, his strikeout rate has improved dramatically, particularly this season, as his K/9 has jumped from 6.7 in '08, to 6.8 last year and then a big jump to 8.3 this season. At the same time, his walk rate and hit rate have both increased. Shields has never been a ground ball pitcher, and while his GB/FB ratio has decreased from .87 in '08 to .70 this year, and he led the AL in home runs allowed, was his performance entirely his fault? No doubt where there's smoke there's fire, but Shields' BABIP against this season was .344. Overall, the Rays BABIP was .282, a 62 point difference. Shields put less balls in play this season, but the ones that were put in play fell with greater regularity. Is that a fluke, or was Shields just that hittable? The answer to this question could be the key to the series. By FanGraphs' WAR, the Rangers have a clear edge in the pitching matchups - more than 2 wins difference in four of the five potential matchups. As good as David Price is, asking him to beat Cliff Lee twice is a tall task. Therefore, the rest of the Rays rotation will have to pick up the slack. Matt Garza is always solid, and you never know when he has a gem in him, as evidenced by this year's no-hitter or his dominating wins in the 2008 ALCS vs. the Red Sox (2 runs allowed in 13 innings pitched). Wade Davis has the luxury of pitching in the only equal matchup of the series vs. Tommy Hunter (0.8 fWAR for Davis, 0.7 for Hunter). That leaves Shields. He is at a disadvantage in both his matchup, and the Rays stand a good chance at being down 1-0 in the series when he walks to the hill Thursday afternoon.
Even in the Lee vs. Price matchup, I look for this series to be high scoring, and highly entertaining. I say matchup instead of matchups because despite the similarities between these two teams, I don't expect this series to go the full five games. Rangers in four.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Since the advent of Wild Card play in 1995, more of the first-round series' have ended in a sweep than anything else, and the only year that did not have a first round sweep was 2003. In two of the last three years, this has drawn even more attention, as in those seasons three of the four first-round matchups ended in sweeps, and there hasn't been a five-game series since the Yankees took the Angels to the limit. This season will be a lot more entertaining, but there will still be one sweep, and it will be in this series.
By Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Standings W3 and L3 numbers, this is the closest series, as the Phillies' W3-L3 is 89.6-72.6, while the Reds' marks are 88.8-73.2, less than a win's difference. While the Phillies won 97 games, BP shows that seven of those wins were lucky or undeserving. So on the surface, this would seem to be an intriguing matchup. After all, Cincy has arguably the game's best offense - the Reds rank first in the Majors in team MLVr and first in the NL in team wOBA, and MVP candidate Joey Votto actually performed better on the road than at home this season. But looking a little closer at Philly's starting pitching, and the disparity grows much wider:
Philly Starters..........GS...IP......ERA
Halladay-Oswalt-Hamels...78...541.....2.74
Everyone Else............84...494.3...4.62
The "Everyone Else" includes 31 starts from Kyle Kendrick, 28 from Joe Blanton, 19 from Jamie Moyer, 3 from JA Happ, 2 from Vance Worley and 1 from Nelson Figueroa, none of whom are likely to take the mound in the Division Series. But what about Philly's pen? Well, despite its reputation, it actually ranked 12th among WXRL, four spots ahead of Cincy. And while there's an argument that a full season of Aroldis Chapman would even the bullpens out a bit, it wouldn't do anything more than bring the respective bullpens to a draw. And while the Reds offense is fearsome, the Phillies aren't exactly slouches, and they will get to play the first two in Citizens Bank Park, where they won 54 of 84 games this season (only the Atlanta Braves had more home wins than Philly in 2010). Phillies in three.
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
The Twins are the Energizer Rabbit of Major League Baseball. They lose their closer before Opening Day, and it doesn't slow them down, their WXRL of 9.162 was sixth best in the Majors this season. They lose Justin Morneau, one of their three superstars who was leading them in OBP (among other things) in early July, and then string together their best month of OBP of the season that month (.367 as a team). The team did start to wear down offensively in September, but Joe Mauer and Jim Thome both missed time. Assuming Mauer and Thome are back in form for the postseason, the offense, may be able to convert hits into runs. Last postseason, against these same Yankees, the Twinkies piled up 29 hits in three games, but they only translated into six runs. This season, the team OBP has actually been slightly worse overall, but that is due mostly to the fact that Joe Mauer "cooled" off from his historic .444 mark of 2009 to a less world-beating .402 this season. Looking at the whole team though, it can be shown that the gaps have narrowed. Last postseason, the Twins' six and seven-hole hitters (Delmon Young in the six, Brendan Harris and Carlos Gomez in the seven) who had OBP's of .310 or less. Those two spots in the order accounted for 15 runners left on base in the three games, and none were more notable than the failed top of the 11th rally in game two, when Young came up with the bases loaded and no outs, and lined out to first on the first pitch he saw. On the next pitch, Gomez grounded out 3-2, and Harris (who had subbed in to the eight hole that night) popped a fly ball to center, killing the rally. Four pitches later, Mark Teixeira would slam a walk-off homer, and the Twins wouldn't recover. This season, Young's play has improved, and the Twins don't have a qualifying hitter with an OBP under .320. This better balance should lead to base runners converting into runs scored more frequently.
The other wrinkle in this series is how the Yankees plan to use their starters. The plan of bringing CC Sabathia back on three days rest for game four seems shortsighted at best. Nick Blackburn, the Twins' scheduled game four starter, was likely to be on the short end of the matchup whether it was AJ Burnett or Sabathia pitching, but moving Sabathia to game four means that Pettitte would have to pitch game five, where he will be a severe underdog against Francisco Liriano. Pettitte is normally cool under pressure in the playoffs, but to say he limped to the finish line this season is a bit of an understatement. He has only three appearances since July 18, and in them he had a 6.75 ERA in 13.1 innings pitched. Pettitte was enjoying a good season before his injury, but Liriano has been otherworldly this year.
I look for the whole team to win every game of this series, with Joe Girardi's Sabathia decision, and not an umpire's blown call, being the issue talked about throughout the hot stove season. Twins in five.
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants
As much as the Texas-Tampa series could hinge on James Shields' performance, the Atlanta-San Francisco series most definitely is riding on Derek Lowe's shoulders. This is likely music to Giants' fans ears, but they shouldn't be so quick to count their chickens. Over his career, Derek Lowe has made a habit of coming up big when it matters. He earned the win in all three series clinchers for the 2004 Boston Red Sox, pitching perhaps the greatest game in Red Sox history - game seven against the Yankees - allowing just one hit and one run across six innings. This would be remarkable in and of itself; that he did it on two days rest is phenomenal. In all, Lowe has appeared in the postseason 21 times - 17 times for the Sox and four times for the Dodgers. In these games, he has an ERA of 3.33 and a WHIP of 1.17. In short, Lowe is no slouch. Is he Tim Lincecum? Of course not. But the gap isn't as large as one might think. Lincecum's xFIP of 3.21 is better than Lowe's 3.65, but Lowe's mark isn't shabby. It was good for 15th this year among qualifying pitchers, ahead of Cy Young candidates like Ubaldo Jimenez, CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander. In fact, Lowe's mark tops the Braves' list, and is the second best mark among starters in the series. Here's how games two and three stack up:
Game 2: Tommy Hanson (4.04 xFIP) vs. Matt Cain (4.19)
Game 3: Tim Hudson (3.87) vs. Jonathan Sanchez (4.11)
Much is made of the Giants' vaunted rotation, but while they get the publicity, the Braves' trio is just as good, if not better, as a whole.
For the season, the Braves' had a better OBP than did the Giants, but that should even out due to the loss of both Chipper Jones and Martin Prado for Atlanta. However, that doesn't suddenly mean the Braves have no hitting. Jason Heyward, Brian McCann and Derrek Lee still form a very good middle of the order, and Nate McLouth came back in September looking very much like he did in 2009, hitting .273 with an .887 OPS for September/October. Add a dash of Omar Infante here, some clutch pinch-hitting from Eric Hinske there (he hit .298, with a .985 OPS in 54 plate appearances as a pinch-hitter this season) and you have the makings of an offense that Bobby Cox can wring out enough runs from to win.
In the other dugout, the Giants have a lot more decisions to make. Do they carry Aaron Rowand? What about Travis Ishikawa and Nate Schierholtz? The Giants need their defense, but the Braves have two lefty-killers for late in the game in Billy Wagner (.071 AVG allowed this season vs. lefties) and Jonny Venters (.198). Bruce Bochy has, by and large, done a good job this season. But the more decisions he has to make, the higher the probability of him screwing up a decision. This series features the biggest managerial mismatch of the first round, and at some point a Bochy decision is likely to cost the Giants a game.
These teams both feature good bullpens, good home field advantages, mediocre offenses and poor running games. The Giants flash the leather better than do the Braves, but with guys like Ishikawa and Schierholtz likely relegated to the bench in the vain search for more offense, the Giants are likely to give up that edge. No matter the outcome, this series is going to be a lot closer than the people penciling in a Giants sweep are ready to see. Braves in five.
So there you go - one series dominated by three aces, two series' that will go the distance, and a very entertaining four-game set for good measure. This scenario played out one other time, in 2002. That postseason ended with the first-ever World Series matchup of two Wild Card teams, with the Angels finally getting their championship after more than 40 years. We can only hope that this year's Fall Classic provides as much excitement.
I will do a full recap as to how my prognostications went overall, but it should be noted that I nailed five of the eight playoff participants this season, missing only Cincinnati, San Francisco and Tampa Bay (you could also demerit me for the fact that I had the Yankees as the AL East champ rather than the Wild Card team, but seeing as how that race went down to the last day of the season, that seems like it'd be splitting hairs). Back in April, I refrained from making postseason predictions, since it's such a crapshoot, and I will continue that trend here by simply going round by round for the playoffs.
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Looking at Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Standings, this is the second-closest series in terms of W3 and L3 (the closest, surprisingly, is Cincinnati-Philadelphia), but these two teams are really mirror images of each other. Both have a left-handed ace, both have good but not great rotations, both teams have an outstanding bullpen, both teams run well and flash good leather, both teams have a somewhat top-heavy lineup and both teams have a MVP candidate who was banged up down the stretch.
The key to this series very well may be James Shields. Since his seemingly breakthrough season of 2008, Shields has been a bit perplexing. On the plus side, his strikeout rate has improved dramatically, particularly this season, as his K/9 has jumped from 6.7 in '08, to 6.8 last year and then a big jump to 8.3 this season. At the same time, his walk rate and hit rate have both increased. Shields has never been a ground ball pitcher, and while his GB/FB ratio has decreased from .87 in '08 to .70 this year, and he led the AL in home runs allowed, was his performance entirely his fault? No doubt where there's smoke there's fire, but Shields' BABIP against this season was .344. Overall, the Rays BABIP was .282, a 62 point difference. Shields put less balls in play this season, but the ones that were put in play fell with greater regularity. Is that a fluke, or was Shields just that hittable? The answer to this question could be the key to the series. By FanGraphs' WAR, the Rangers have a clear edge in the pitching matchups - more than 2 wins difference in four of the five potential matchups. As good as David Price is, asking him to beat Cliff Lee twice is a tall task. Therefore, the rest of the Rays rotation will have to pick up the slack. Matt Garza is always solid, and you never know when he has a gem in him, as evidenced by this year's no-hitter or his dominating wins in the 2008 ALCS vs. the Red Sox (2 runs allowed in 13 innings pitched). Wade Davis has the luxury of pitching in the only equal matchup of the series vs. Tommy Hunter (0.8 fWAR for Davis, 0.7 for Hunter). That leaves Shields. He is at a disadvantage in both his matchup, and the Rays stand a good chance at being down 1-0 in the series when he walks to the hill Thursday afternoon.
Even in the Lee vs. Price matchup, I look for this series to be high scoring, and highly entertaining. I say matchup instead of matchups because despite the similarities between these two teams, I don't expect this series to go the full five games. Rangers in four.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Since the advent of Wild Card play in 1995, more of the first-round series' have ended in a sweep than anything else, and the only year that did not have a first round sweep was 2003. In two of the last three years, this has drawn even more attention, as in those seasons three of the four first-round matchups ended in sweeps, and there hasn't been a five-game series since the Yankees took the Angels to the limit. This season will be a lot more entertaining, but there will still be one sweep, and it will be in this series.
By Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Standings W3 and L3 numbers, this is the closest series, as the Phillies' W3-L3 is 89.6-72.6, while the Reds' marks are 88.8-73.2, less than a win's difference. While the Phillies won 97 games, BP shows that seven of those wins were lucky or undeserving. So on the surface, this would seem to be an intriguing matchup. After all, Cincy has arguably the game's best offense - the Reds rank first in the Majors in team MLVr and first in the NL in team wOBA, and MVP candidate Joey Votto actually performed better on the road than at home this season. But looking a little closer at Philly's starting pitching, and the disparity grows much wider:
Philly Starters..........GS...IP......ERA
Halladay-Oswalt-Hamels...78...541.....2.74
Everyone Else............84...494.3...4.62
The "Everyone Else" includes 31 starts from Kyle Kendrick, 28 from Joe Blanton, 19 from Jamie Moyer, 3 from JA Happ, 2 from Vance Worley and 1 from Nelson Figueroa, none of whom are likely to take the mound in the Division Series. But what about Philly's pen? Well, despite its reputation, it actually ranked 12th among WXRL, four spots ahead of Cincy. And while there's an argument that a full season of Aroldis Chapman would even the bullpens out a bit, it wouldn't do anything more than bring the respective bullpens to a draw. And while the Reds offense is fearsome, the Phillies aren't exactly slouches, and they will get to play the first two in Citizens Bank Park, where they won 54 of 84 games this season (only the Atlanta Braves had more home wins than Philly in 2010). Phillies in three.
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
The Twins are the Energizer Rabbit of Major League Baseball. They lose their closer before Opening Day, and it doesn't slow them down, their WXRL of 9.162 was sixth best in the Majors this season. They lose Justin Morneau, one of their three superstars who was leading them in OBP (among other things) in early July, and then string together their best month of OBP of the season that month (.367 as a team). The team did start to wear down offensively in September, but Joe Mauer and Jim Thome both missed time. Assuming Mauer and Thome are back in form for the postseason, the offense, may be able to convert hits into runs. Last postseason, against these same Yankees, the Twinkies piled up 29 hits in three games, but they only translated into six runs. This season, the team OBP has actually been slightly worse overall, but that is due mostly to the fact that Joe Mauer "cooled" off from his historic .444 mark of 2009 to a less world-beating .402 this season. Looking at the whole team though, it can be shown that the gaps have narrowed. Last postseason, the Twins' six and seven-hole hitters (Delmon Young in the six, Brendan Harris and Carlos Gomez in the seven) who had OBP's of .310 or less. Those two spots in the order accounted for 15 runners left on base in the three games, and none were more notable than the failed top of the 11th rally in game two, when Young came up with the bases loaded and no outs, and lined out to first on the first pitch he saw. On the next pitch, Gomez grounded out 3-2, and Harris (who had subbed in to the eight hole that night) popped a fly ball to center, killing the rally. Four pitches later, Mark Teixeira would slam a walk-off homer, and the Twins wouldn't recover. This season, Young's play has improved, and the Twins don't have a qualifying hitter with an OBP under .320. This better balance should lead to base runners converting into runs scored more frequently.
The other wrinkle in this series is how the Yankees plan to use their starters. The plan of bringing CC Sabathia back on three days rest for game four seems shortsighted at best. Nick Blackburn, the Twins' scheduled game four starter, was likely to be on the short end of the matchup whether it was AJ Burnett or Sabathia pitching, but moving Sabathia to game four means that Pettitte would have to pitch game five, where he will be a severe underdog against Francisco Liriano. Pettitte is normally cool under pressure in the playoffs, but to say he limped to the finish line this season is a bit of an understatement. He has only three appearances since July 18, and in them he had a 6.75 ERA in 13.1 innings pitched. Pettitte was enjoying a good season before his injury, but Liriano has been otherworldly this year.
I look for the whole team to win every game of this series, with Joe Girardi's Sabathia decision, and not an umpire's blown call, being the issue talked about throughout the hot stove season. Twins in five.
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants
As much as the Texas-Tampa series could hinge on James Shields' performance, the Atlanta-San Francisco series most definitely is riding on Derek Lowe's shoulders. This is likely music to Giants' fans ears, but they shouldn't be so quick to count their chickens. Over his career, Derek Lowe has made a habit of coming up big when it matters. He earned the win in all three series clinchers for the 2004 Boston Red Sox, pitching perhaps the greatest game in Red Sox history - game seven against the Yankees - allowing just one hit and one run across six innings. This would be remarkable in and of itself; that he did it on two days rest is phenomenal. In all, Lowe has appeared in the postseason 21 times - 17 times for the Sox and four times for the Dodgers. In these games, he has an ERA of 3.33 and a WHIP of 1.17. In short, Lowe is no slouch. Is he Tim Lincecum? Of course not. But the gap isn't as large as one might think. Lincecum's xFIP of 3.21 is better than Lowe's 3.65, but Lowe's mark isn't shabby. It was good for 15th this year among qualifying pitchers, ahead of Cy Young candidates like Ubaldo Jimenez, CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander. In fact, Lowe's mark tops the Braves' list, and is the second best mark among starters in the series. Here's how games two and three stack up:
Game 2: Tommy Hanson (4.04 xFIP) vs. Matt Cain (4.19)
Game 3: Tim Hudson (3.87) vs. Jonathan Sanchez (4.11)
Much is made of the Giants' vaunted rotation, but while they get the publicity, the Braves' trio is just as good, if not better, as a whole.
For the season, the Braves' had a better OBP than did the Giants, but that should even out due to the loss of both Chipper Jones and Martin Prado for Atlanta. However, that doesn't suddenly mean the Braves have no hitting. Jason Heyward, Brian McCann and Derrek Lee still form a very good middle of the order, and Nate McLouth came back in September looking very much like he did in 2009, hitting .273 with an .887 OPS for September/October. Add a dash of Omar Infante here, some clutch pinch-hitting from Eric Hinske there (he hit .298, with a .985 OPS in 54 plate appearances as a pinch-hitter this season) and you have the makings of an offense that Bobby Cox can wring out enough runs from to win.
In the other dugout, the Giants have a lot more decisions to make. Do they carry Aaron Rowand? What about Travis Ishikawa and Nate Schierholtz? The Giants need their defense, but the Braves have two lefty-killers for late in the game in Billy Wagner (.071 AVG allowed this season vs. lefties) and Jonny Venters (.198). Bruce Bochy has, by and large, done a good job this season. But the more decisions he has to make, the higher the probability of him screwing up a decision. This series features the biggest managerial mismatch of the first round, and at some point a Bochy decision is likely to cost the Giants a game.
These teams both feature good bullpens, good home field advantages, mediocre offenses and poor running games. The Giants flash the leather better than do the Braves, but with guys like Ishikawa and Schierholtz likely relegated to the bench in the vain search for more offense, the Giants are likely to give up that edge. No matter the outcome, this series is going to be a lot closer than the people penciling in a Giants sweep are ready to see. Braves in five.
So there you go - one series dominated by three aces, two series' that will go the distance, and a very entertaining four-game set for good measure. This scenario played out one other time, in 2002. That postseason ended with the first-ever World Series matchup of two Wild Card teams, with the Angels finally getting their championship after more than 40 years. We can only hope that this year's Fall Classic provides as much excitement.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Where You Been? / NFL 2010
So it's been awhile since I posted to the blog. Or tweeted for that matter. There are a few reasons for this. First, and most important, after I made my MLB picks, my wife needed my attention. She was in her last 2 months of pregnancy, and not only did she require more attention, but we also started taking our baby preparation classes. And since our baby was born, I've been spending every second possible with him. In addition, I've added new responsibilities at work. Combine the two, and that doesn't leave much time for blogging. I even contemplated not making my NFL picks this year. I've been making them since as far back as I can remember. I used to do them by hand, picking every game for every team on sheet after sheet of paper from my father's yellow pads. These days, I keep them on an Excel spreadsheet. I managed to lose my last file when I bought my new laptop back in 2005, but I have 2006-2010 now saved in the same spreadsheet. It's a weird thing to take pride in, but I take pride in it nonetheless. I may not always be right, but I'm always invested. So even though I didn't read the SI preview issue this year, and only made it 2/3 through the Football Outsiders Almanac, here are my 2010 NFL picks. For the record, I did have New Orleans beating Minnesota Thursday night, but if you don't believe me, I'll understand. We'll go by division, with playoff results at the end.
AFC
AFC EAST
1. Miami Dolphins, 11-5, 3rd in AFC, 5th in NFL
Overview: The Dolphins are quietly lurking down south, and are ready to pounce this year. They will tie with New England, but win the division thanks to a 5-1 division record.
Biggest Win (regular season only): Week 14, @NYJ: The 8-4 Dolphins roll into the (New) Meadowlands and defeat the 9-3 Jets, starting the Jets on an end of season slump that will spiral them out of the playoffs, while giving the Dolphins the divisional record they need to trump the Pats.
2. New England Patriots, 11-5, 6th, 9th
Overview: I'm going to go against the grain here and say that the Pats defense will be a pleasant surprise, while the offense will be a bit of a let down. Wes Welker has been healthy in preseason, but to expect him to go all year without any knee problems would be naive. After him, the Pats have Moss, who will be double-teamed, and rookies. Tom Brady can only do so much.
Biggest Wins: Week 6, vs. BAL, Week 11, vs. IND: The Pats may not be Super Bowl contenders this year, but they will be get retribution for their 2 most embarrassing losses of 2009 (though Indy will once again have the last laugh in the playoffs).
3. New York Jets, 10-6, 7th, 11th
Overview: The Jets have been riding high all offseason, but they have been remarkably fortunate with injuries on their offensive line, it will take Revis awhile to work back into game shape, and their schedule is not as cupcake-laden as it was last year.
Biggest Win: Week 8, vs. GB: Coming out of their bye, Gang Green punishes Aaron Rodgers & Co., whose passing game will have a tough time on Revis Island. This game sets the Jets on a 6-game winning streak.
4. Buffalo Bills, 3-13, 15th, 30th
Overview: There isn't much good to say, ever, about the Bills.
Biggest Win: Week 17, at NYJ: The one silver lining in the Bills season will be playing spoiler. With this win, they will knock the Jets out of the playoffs.
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens, 12-4, 2nd, 4th
Overview: The additions at wide receiver will be enough to turn Flacco into a top 10 QB, and Baltimore will finally triumph in the hotly contested AFC North.
Biggest Win: Week 13, vs. PIT: This win gives them the season sweep of Pittsburgh, and vaults them to the division title, as neither Baltimore or Pittsburgh will lose a game from Week 14-17.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers, 11-5, 5th, 6th
Overview: Big Ben will come back to a 2-2 team, and Dennis Dixon will become the quarterback of the future in what will be Big Ben's last season in black and gold.
Biggest Win: Week 1, vs. ATL: The game that proves where Dixon proves he has what it takes to be a quarterback in the National Football League.
3. Cincinnati Bengals, 7-9, 10th, 19th
Overview: A much tougher schedule that includes NE, Atlanta, Miami, Indy, the Jets, New Orleans and San Diego for outside of the division foes (along with sleeper Tampa Bay) conspire to ruin Cincy's shot at a second straight playoff season.
Biggest Win: Week 13, vs. NO: Cincy shows that they're not a bad team, just one with the odds stacked against them.
4. Cleveland Browns, 5-11, 13th, 27th
Overview: Same old Browns - any progress they made in the last few weeks of '09 will ultimately be cancelled out by the unfortunate signing of Jake Delhomme.
Biggest Win: Week 4, vs. CIN: The Browns deal the Bengals an early season blow, knocking the Bengals down to 2-2, in a season where they need every win they can get.
AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts, 13-1, 1st, 1st
Overview: The Colts are once again the best team in football during the regular season, but this season, they will be the best in the playoffs as well. Donald Brown eventually takes over for a too-concussed Joseph Addai, and provides just enough ground game to keep defenses honest. They will face a stern test from the Ravens in the AFC Championship game, until Manning remembers the Ravens have no secondary, and then he will feast.
Biggest Win: Week 13, vs. DAL: Indy deals Dallas it's seventh loss, effectively knocking them to the bottom of the playoff picture in the NFC. After this game, Indy will be 10-2, and have a leg up on the rest of the AFC for home-field advantage.
2. Tennessee Titans, 9-7, 9th, 15th
Overview: The Titans will be good, but not good enough, and will have a tough time coming back in games when they face an early deficit.
Biggest Win: Week 14, vs. IND: Beating Indy is always huge, and the win vaults the Titans to 8-5, giving them a legit shot at the playoffs, which unfortunately they will not take advantage of, losing to KC and Indy in the final two weeks of the season.
3. Houston Texans, 7-9, 11th, 21st
Overview: Consider me officially off of the Texans bandwagon for 2010.
Biggest Win: Week 3, vs. DAL: Houston takes a 2-1 lead in the new Battle for Texas.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars, 2-14, 16th, 31st
Overview: The only team worse than the Jags will be Seattle, but while Seattle is rebuilding, the Jags fashion themselves as dark horse contenders. They won't be.
Biggest Win: Week 6, vs. TEN: Their only AFC South win of 2010.
AFC WEST
1. Kansas City Chiefs, 10-6, 4th, 10th
Overview: The Chiefs combine stellar number options on offense (RB Jamaal Charles & WR Dwayne Bowe) with an easy schedule and a crappy division to vault themselves back into the playoffs for the first time since 2006.
Biggest Win: Week 14, at SD: This huge win in San Diego gives the Chiefs the season sweep and the edge in the tiebreaker with the lightning bolts.
2. San Diego Chargers, 10-6, 8th, 12th
Overview: The Chargers have made the playoffs in four straight years, and five of the last six, yet they are not a dynasty, and have just lost arguably the best player in franchise history. The odds say it's time for them to miss the playoffs.
Biggest Win: Week 7, vs. NE: Teetering at 3-3, this win over the always-tough-for-them Patriots will keep hope alive.
3. Oakland Raiders, 6-10, 12th, 24th
Overview: This is the make or break year for Jason Campbell. Final result: break. The Raiders only do 1 win better than last season.
Biggest Win: Week 5, vs. SD: The win pushes Oakland to a respectable 2-3, while it pushes the needle to high alert for the Chargers, who will have now lost to division foes KC and Oakland in the first five weeks.
4. Denver Broncos, 4-12, 14th, 28th
Overview: This is already shaping up to be a lost season for the Broncos, who were going to have be running on all cylinders to combats their difficult schedule.
Biggest Win: Week 10, vs. KC: Coming off their bye, the Broncos net their third, and penultimate, win of the season in Tim Tebow's first start.
NFC
NFC EAST
1. Washington Redskins, 11-5, 3rd, 7th
Overview: For one year, everything will go right in Washington, who will only learn of Mike Shanahan's shortcut, band-aid ways in 2011. Or 2012, since there will be no 2011 season.
Biggest Wins: Week 4, @ PHI, Week 10, vs. PHI: Donovan McNabb wins.
2. New York Giants, 9-7, 6th, 14th
Overview: The G-Men rebound from a lackluster year and sneak back into the playoffs.
Biggest Win: Week 17, at WAS: The Giants get the win that vaults them into the playoffs over an already clinched Washington, who rests most of their starters, including McNabb.
3. Dallas Cowboys, 8-8, 7th, 16th
Overview: The Cowboys are overrated.
Biggest Win: Week 14, vs. PHI: After two straight losses to New Orleans and Indy, the Cowboys keep their fading playoff hopes alive.
4. Philadelphia Eagles, 8-8, 8th, 17th
Overview: The Eagles will be back in the NFL's next season, as their young core of Kolb, McCoy, Jackson, Macklin and Celek grow together, but they will not have the wherewithal or consistency to survive the tough NFC East this season.
Biggest Wins: Week 1, vs. GB, Week 6, vs. ATL: The Eagles give their fans hope by showing they have what it takes to beat the conference's elite.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers, 12-4, 1st, 2nd
Overview: The NFC's best regular season team will ride a strong offense all the way to a bye week, where they will unfortunately then run into the New Orleans Saints, who will have just enough magic to out-gun the Packers and end their season too soon.
Biggest Wins: Week 7, vs. MIN, Week 11, @ MIN: After these two games, Aaron Rodgers will be able to finally fling the Favre monkey from his back.
2. Chicago Bears, 7-9, 11th, 22nd
Overview: I just don't see it. Minor improvements in the offense will be cancelled out by more cracks in the defense, and when the chips are down, you don't want Jay Cutler under center.
Biggest Win: Week 10, vs. MIN: The Vikings come into this one with a 3-5 record and Green Bay the week after. In other words, it's a must-win for Minnesota, but they won't get it, as Brian Urlacher mercifully ends Brett Favre's career by snapping his ankle in half.
3. Detroit Lions, 6-10, 13th, 25th
Overview: The Lions start travelling the long road back to respectability.
Biggest Win: Week 6, @NYG: Matthew Stafford proves he belongs, and just in time, as it is just Detroit's second win of the season, and heading into the bye week, Stafford will need the win to save his job.
4. Minnesota Vikings, 5-11, 14th, 26th
Overview: That's right, last place. Favre will not play the whole season, and the rest of the Vikings will be too shell shocked to compete. Also, Adrian Peterson will flirt with the all-time fumble record.
Biggest Win: Week 6, vs. DAL: The win moves Minnesota to 2-3 on the season, giving fans hope that Favre can resurrect them once more. He won't.
NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta Falcons, 12-4, 2nd, 3rd
Overview: I've never hated a pick more. I hate BC, and therefore I hate Matt Ryan, but this is their Milhouse Van Houten year. IE, everything's coming up Falcons!
Biggest Win: Week 16, vs. NO: The 10-4 Falcons face off against the 10-4 Saints, with the Falcons winning the game, sweeping the season series and winning the division in the process. It will also give them the confidence they need to ultimately beat New Orleans in the NFC Championship game.
2. New Orleans Saints, 11-5, 5th, 8th
Overview: While the Saints won't win the division, they will be playoff bound in consecutive seasons for just the second time in franchise history (1990-1992 being the other time).
Biggest Win: Week 8, vs. PIT: The Saints prove their Super Bowl win wasn't a fluke by knocking off perennial contender Pittsburgh.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8-8, 9th, 18th
Overview: Josh Freeman and Raheem Morris shut up their critics with a respectable season. They will go 0-4 against the better AFC, but will hold their own within their own conference.
Biggest Win: Week 6, vs. NO: The Bucs announce their rebirth and expose some chinks in the Super Bowl champs armor at the same time.
4. Carolina Panthers, 3-13, 15th, 29th
Overview: This will be John Fox's last year with the Panthers, who will lose their first five games (with Matt Moore as QB) and their last five (with Jimmy Clausen as QB).
Biggest Win: Week 7, vs. SF: The Panthers get their first win of the year, while knocking San Fran back to earth.
NFC WEST
1. San Francisco, 9-7, 4th, 13th
Overview: The Niners are this year's sexy pick. I'm only buying them in the sense that the rest of this division is abominable.
Biggest Win: Week 17 vs. ARI: The Niners will come in at 8-7, the Cardinals 7-8. But with the Cardinals having won the first matchup, an Arizona win would give them the tiebreaker and the division title. The Niners will dig deep and come up with the win that gives them their first playoff berth since 2002.
2. Arizona Cardinals, 7-9, 10th, 20th
Overview: The Cardinals were already in for a down season without Kurt Warner, and that was before they realized that their best option at QB was Derek Anderson.
Biggest Win: Week 12, vs. SF: The win puts Arizona at 4-7 and will be the first win in a four game winning streak that will bring them back to .500 and within hailing distance of San Fran, with a Week 17 matchup in sight. Unfortunately, they will lose that matchup and find themselves out of the playoffs.
3. St. Louis Rams, 7-9, 12th, 23rd
Overview: Sam Bradford justifies his selection over Detroit's Suh, and the Rams make the run at respectability that some predicted would happen last year.
Biggest Win: Week 1, vs. ARI: Bradford shows right off the bat that 2010 is the dawn of a new era of Rams football.
4. Seattle Seahawks, 1-15, 16th, 32nd
Overview: I saved the worst for last. Wait, that's not how that goes. In any case, Pete Carroll is rebuilding, and will have the cache to let the 'Hawks take their lumps this year, just as long as it gets them Jake Locker next year.
Biggest Win: Week 13, vs. CAR: This one's by default, since it's their only win.
AFC PLAYOFFS
#6 New England defeats #3 Miami
#5 Pittsburgh defeats #4 Kansas City
#1 Indianapolis defeats #6 New England
#2 Baltimore defeats #5 Pittsburgh
#1 Indianapolis defeats #2 Baltimore
NFC PLAYOFFS
#3 Washington defeats #6 New York Giants
#5 New Orleans defeats #4 San Francisco
#5 New Orleans defeats #1 Green Bay
#2 Atlanta defeats #3 Washington
#2 Atlanta defeats #5 New Orleans
SUPER BOWL XLV
Indianapolis 27 - Atlanta 21
MVP Peyton Manning
Manning gets his second Super Bowl win a year later than everyone though he would, beating an Atlanta team that is just happy to be there (also, did you really think I'd pick a BC-led team to win the whole enchilada? Estan loco.).
AFC
AFC EAST
1. Miami Dolphins, 11-5, 3rd in AFC, 5th in NFL
Overview: The Dolphins are quietly lurking down south, and are ready to pounce this year. They will tie with New England, but win the division thanks to a 5-1 division record.
Biggest Win (regular season only): Week 14, @NYJ: The 8-4 Dolphins roll into the (New) Meadowlands and defeat the 9-3 Jets, starting the Jets on an end of season slump that will spiral them out of the playoffs, while giving the Dolphins the divisional record they need to trump the Pats.
2. New England Patriots, 11-5, 6th, 9th
Overview: I'm going to go against the grain here and say that the Pats defense will be a pleasant surprise, while the offense will be a bit of a let down. Wes Welker has been healthy in preseason, but to expect him to go all year without any knee problems would be naive. After him, the Pats have Moss, who will be double-teamed, and rookies. Tom Brady can only do so much.
Biggest Wins: Week 6, vs. BAL, Week 11, vs. IND: The Pats may not be Super Bowl contenders this year, but they will be get retribution for their 2 most embarrassing losses of 2009 (though Indy will once again have the last laugh in the playoffs).
3. New York Jets, 10-6, 7th, 11th
Overview: The Jets have been riding high all offseason, but they have been remarkably fortunate with injuries on their offensive line, it will take Revis awhile to work back into game shape, and their schedule is not as cupcake-laden as it was last year.
Biggest Win: Week 8, vs. GB: Coming out of their bye, Gang Green punishes Aaron Rodgers & Co., whose passing game will have a tough time on Revis Island. This game sets the Jets on a 6-game winning streak.
4. Buffalo Bills, 3-13, 15th, 30th
Overview: There isn't much good to say, ever, about the Bills.
Biggest Win: Week 17, at NYJ: The one silver lining in the Bills season will be playing spoiler. With this win, they will knock the Jets out of the playoffs.
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens, 12-4, 2nd, 4th
Overview: The additions at wide receiver will be enough to turn Flacco into a top 10 QB, and Baltimore will finally triumph in the hotly contested AFC North.
Biggest Win: Week 13, vs. PIT: This win gives them the season sweep of Pittsburgh, and vaults them to the division title, as neither Baltimore or Pittsburgh will lose a game from Week 14-17.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers, 11-5, 5th, 6th
Overview: Big Ben will come back to a 2-2 team, and Dennis Dixon will become the quarterback of the future in what will be Big Ben's last season in black and gold.
Biggest Win: Week 1, vs. ATL: The game that proves where Dixon proves he has what it takes to be a quarterback in the National Football League.
3. Cincinnati Bengals, 7-9, 10th, 19th
Overview: A much tougher schedule that includes NE, Atlanta, Miami, Indy, the Jets, New Orleans and San Diego for outside of the division foes (along with sleeper Tampa Bay) conspire to ruin Cincy's shot at a second straight playoff season.
Biggest Win: Week 13, vs. NO: Cincy shows that they're not a bad team, just one with the odds stacked against them.
4. Cleveland Browns, 5-11, 13th, 27th
Overview: Same old Browns - any progress they made in the last few weeks of '09 will ultimately be cancelled out by the unfortunate signing of Jake Delhomme.
Biggest Win: Week 4, vs. CIN: The Browns deal the Bengals an early season blow, knocking the Bengals down to 2-2, in a season where they need every win they can get.
AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts, 13-1, 1st, 1st
Overview: The Colts are once again the best team in football during the regular season, but this season, they will be the best in the playoffs as well. Donald Brown eventually takes over for a too-concussed Joseph Addai, and provides just enough ground game to keep defenses honest. They will face a stern test from the Ravens in the AFC Championship game, until Manning remembers the Ravens have no secondary, and then he will feast.
Biggest Win: Week 13, vs. DAL: Indy deals Dallas it's seventh loss, effectively knocking them to the bottom of the playoff picture in the NFC. After this game, Indy will be 10-2, and have a leg up on the rest of the AFC for home-field advantage.
2. Tennessee Titans, 9-7, 9th, 15th
Overview: The Titans will be good, but not good enough, and will have a tough time coming back in games when they face an early deficit.
Biggest Win: Week 14, vs. IND: Beating Indy is always huge, and the win vaults the Titans to 8-5, giving them a legit shot at the playoffs, which unfortunately they will not take advantage of, losing to KC and Indy in the final two weeks of the season.
3. Houston Texans, 7-9, 11th, 21st
Overview: Consider me officially off of the Texans bandwagon for 2010.
Biggest Win: Week 3, vs. DAL: Houston takes a 2-1 lead in the new Battle for Texas.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars, 2-14, 16th, 31st
Overview: The only team worse than the Jags will be Seattle, but while Seattle is rebuilding, the Jags fashion themselves as dark horse contenders. They won't be.
Biggest Win: Week 6, vs. TEN: Their only AFC South win of 2010.
AFC WEST
1. Kansas City Chiefs, 10-6, 4th, 10th
Overview: The Chiefs combine stellar number options on offense (RB Jamaal Charles & WR Dwayne Bowe) with an easy schedule and a crappy division to vault themselves back into the playoffs for the first time since 2006.
Biggest Win: Week 14, at SD: This huge win in San Diego gives the Chiefs the season sweep and the edge in the tiebreaker with the lightning bolts.
2. San Diego Chargers, 10-6, 8th, 12th
Overview: The Chargers have made the playoffs in four straight years, and five of the last six, yet they are not a dynasty, and have just lost arguably the best player in franchise history. The odds say it's time for them to miss the playoffs.
Biggest Win: Week 7, vs. NE: Teetering at 3-3, this win over the always-tough-for-them Patriots will keep hope alive.
3. Oakland Raiders, 6-10, 12th, 24th
Overview: This is the make or break year for Jason Campbell. Final result: break. The Raiders only do 1 win better than last season.
Biggest Win: Week 5, vs. SD: The win pushes Oakland to a respectable 2-3, while it pushes the needle to high alert for the Chargers, who will have now lost to division foes KC and Oakland in the first five weeks.
4. Denver Broncos, 4-12, 14th, 28th
Overview: This is already shaping up to be a lost season for the Broncos, who were going to have be running on all cylinders to combats their difficult schedule.
Biggest Win: Week 10, vs. KC: Coming off their bye, the Broncos net their third, and penultimate, win of the season in Tim Tebow's first start.
NFC
NFC EAST
1. Washington Redskins, 11-5, 3rd, 7th
Overview: For one year, everything will go right in Washington, who will only learn of Mike Shanahan's shortcut, band-aid ways in 2011. Or 2012, since there will be no 2011 season.
Biggest Wins: Week 4, @ PHI, Week 10, vs. PHI: Donovan McNabb wins.
2. New York Giants, 9-7, 6th, 14th
Overview: The G-Men rebound from a lackluster year and sneak back into the playoffs.
Biggest Win: Week 17, at WAS: The Giants get the win that vaults them into the playoffs over an already clinched Washington, who rests most of their starters, including McNabb.
3. Dallas Cowboys, 8-8, 7th, 16th
Overview: The Cowboys are overrated.
Biggest Win: Week 14, vs. PHI: After two straight losses to New Orleans and Indy, the Cowboys keep their fading playoff hopes alive.
4. Philadelphia Eagles, 8-8, 8th, 17th
Overview: The Eagles will be back in the NFL's next season, as their young core of Kolb, McCoy, Jackson, Macklin and Celek grow together, but they will not have the wherewithal or consistency to survive the tough NFC East this season.
Biggest Wins: Week 1, vs. GB, Week 6, vs. ATL: The Eagles give their fans hope by showing they have what it takes to beat the conference's elite.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers, 12-4, 1st, 2nd
Overview: The NFC's best regular season team will ride a strong offense all the way to a bye week, where they will unfortunately then run into the New Orleans Saints, who will have just enough magic to out-gun the Packers and end their season too soon.
Biggest Wins: Week 7, vs. MIN, Week 11, @ MIN: After these two games, Aaron Rodgers will be able to finally fling the Favre monkey from his back.
2. Chicago Bears, 7-9, 11th, 22nd
Overview: I just don't see it. Minor improvements in the offense will be cancelled out by more cracks in the defense, and when the chips are down, you don't want Jay Cutler under center.
Biggest Win: Week 10, vs. MIN: The Vikings come into this one with a 3-5 record and Green Bay the week after. In other words, it's a must-win for Minnesota, but they won't get it, as Brian Urlacher mercifully ends Brett Favre's career by snapping his ankle in half.
3. Detroit Lions, 6-10, 13th, 25th
Overview: The Lions start travelling the long road back to respectability.
Biggest Win: Week 6, @NYG: Matthew Stafford proves he belongs, and just in time, as it is just Detroit's second win of the season, and heading into the bye week, Stafford will need the win to save his job.
4. Minnesota Vikings, 5-11, 14th, 26th
Overview: That's right, last place. Favre will not play the whole season, and the rest of the Vikings will be too shell shocked to compete. Also, Adrian Peterson will flirt with the all-time fumble record.
Biggest Win: Week 6, vs. DAL: The win moves Minnesota to 2-3 on the season, giving fans hope that Favre can resurrect them once more. He won't.
NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta Falcons, 12-4, 2nd, 3rd
Overview: I've never hated a pick more. I hate BC, and therefore I hate Matt Ryan, but this is their Milhouse Van Houten year. IE, everything's coming up Falcons!
Biggest Win: Week 16, vs. NO: The 10-4 Falcons face off against the 10-4 Saints, with the Falcons winning the game, sweeping the season series and winning the division in the process. It will also give them the confidence they need to ultimately beat New Orleans in the NFC Championship game.
2. New Orleans Saints, 11-5, 5th, 8th
Overview: While the Saints won't win the division, they will be playoff bound in consecutive seasons for just the second time in franchise history (1990-1992 being the other time).
Biggest Win: Week 8, vs. PIT: The Saints prove their Super Bowl win wasn't a fluke by knocking off perennial contender Pittsburgh.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8-8, 9th, 18th
Overview: Josh Freeman and Raheem Morris shut up their critics with a respectable season. They will go 0-4 against the better AFC, but will hold their own within their own conference.
Biggest Win: Week 6, vs. NO: The Bucs announce their rebirth and expose some chinks in the Super Bowl champs armor at the same time.
4. Carolina Panthers, 3-13, 15th, 29th
Overview: This will be John Fox's last year with the Panthers, who will lose their first five games (with Matt Moore as QB) and their last five (with Jimmy Clausen as QB).
Biggest Win: Week 7, vs. SF: The Panthers get their first win of the year, while knocking San Fran back to earth.
NFC WEST
1. San Francisco, 9-7, 4th, 13th
Overview: The Niners are this year's sexy pick. I'm only buying them in the sense that the rest of this division is abominable.
Biggest Win: Week 17 vs. ARI: The Niners will come in at 8-7, the Cardinals 7-8. But with the Cardinals having won the first matchup, an Arizona win would give them the tiebreaker and the division title. The Niners will dig deep and come up with the win that gives them their first playoff berth since 2002.
2. Arizona Cardinals, 7-9, 10th, 20th
Overview: The Cardinals were already in for a down season without Kurt Warner, and that was before they realized that their best option at QB was Derek Anderson.
Biggest Win: Week 12, vs. SF: The win puts Arizona at 4-7 and will be the first win in a four game winning streak that will bring them back to .500 and within hailing distance of San Fran, with a Week 17 matchup in sight. Unfortunately, they will lose that matchup and find themselves out of the playoffs.
3. St. Louis Rams, 7-9, 12th, 23rd
Overview: Sam Bradford justifies his selection over Detroit's Suh, and the Rams make the run at respectability that some predicted would happen last year.
Biggest Win: Week 1, vs. ARI: Bradford shows right off the bat that 2010 is the dawn of a new era of Rams football.
4. Seattle Seahawks, 1-15, 16th, 32nd
Overview: I saved the worst for last. Wait, that's not how that goes. In any case, Pete Carroll is rebuilding, and will have the cache to let the 'Hawks take their lumps this year, just as long as it gets them Jake Locker next year.
Biggest Win: Week 13, vs. CAR: This one's by default, since it's their only win.
AFC PLAYOFFS
#6 New England defeats #3 Miami
#5 Pittsburgh defeats #4 Kansas City
#1 Indianapolis defeats #6 New England
#2 Baltimore defeats #5 Pittsburgh
#1 Indianapolis defeats #2 Baltimore
NFC PLAYOFFS
#3 Washington defeats #6 New York Giants
#5 New Orleans defeats #4 San Francisco
#5 New Orleans defeats #1 Green Bay
#2 Atlanta defeats #3 Washington
#2 Atlanta defeats #5 New Orleans
SUPER BOWL XLV
Indianapolis 27 - Atlanta 21
MVP Peyton Manning
Manning gets his second Super Bowl win a year later than everyone though he would, beating an Atlanta team that is just happy to be there (also, did you really think I'd pick a BC-led team to win the whole enchilada? Estan loco.).
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
MLB 2010, Part Two, MLB From A-Z
A is for
B is for Borbon, as in Julio Borbon. Called up to the Majors last June, and for good last August, Borbon hit leadoff for the Rangers in 36 of their last 53 games. In most of those games, however, he either played left field or DH. Now, with Marlon Byrd off to Chicago, Borbon will be asked to hit lead off and play center. His ability to do that will go a long way towards determining how successful the Rangers are in 2010.
C is for Crisi-tunity! Homer Simpson coined this phrase when his daughter Lisa explained to her father that the Chinese believe use the same word for both crisis and opportunity. Major League Baseball seemingly has a crisis on their hands in the franchises of Kansas City and Pittsburgh. The Royals haven't made the playoffs since 1985 and the Pirates since 1992. The league has taken to exploring options this offseason to change competitive balance, but in my opinion, they are missing the boat. For far too long, teams like KC, Pittsburgh, Minnesota and Florida, among others, have treaded water because financially they knew that MLB's revenue sharing system would be the life preserver that would help them safely reach shore. The Pirates payroll has not been over $50 million since 2003, and KC didn't top $50 million for the first time until 2007. What's more, when KC does spend money, they're not spending it on the right players (see Guillen, Jose). I for one would like to see what would happen if that revenue sharing life preserver was ripped from their clutches. Without revenue sharing, these clubs would have to make a more honest effort to win or risk losing their fans forever. We know Pittsburgh will support a winner, and the Pirates used to have a tradition of excellence. I believe in the Royals and the fans of Kansas City as well, but the Royals tradition is not as storied as the Pirates or other long-standing teams. Yes, the boys in powder blue won the World Series in '85, but they have only been in KC since 1969, and they have only made the playoffs seven times in that time span. Perhaps another city would do a better job with the Royals than would KC. But no matter what the answers are, it's clear that MLB should start asking more questions.
D is for DeRosa, as in Mark DeRosa. He was the Giants' big offseason acquisition...and therein lies the problem. The Giants are still going to struggle to score runs. They just can't get out of their own way. They man who finished second on their team in OBP, Fred Lewis, is somehow no better than third at any spot on their depth chart, and they are going to play the human garbage disposal, aka Bengie Molina, instead of Buster Posey. I have them dropping from 8th overall in MLB last year to 14th this year.
E is for Evan, as in Evan Longoria. How many players are All-Stars and get MVP votes each of their first two years in the Majors? Not many. Longoria whacked 30+ homers for the first time in his career last year, and added his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards, and I'm sure they both look nice next to his Rookie of the Year trophy. With Carl Crawford potentially leaving after this season, and rumors about the Rays drastically cutting payroll next year as well, the pressure is on Longoria to put the Rays back in the playoffs in the hyper-competitive AL East.
F is for Fat Guys. The game is just a lot more fun with fat guys in it. Guys like Carlos Lee, Prince Fielder, Molina and Pablo Sandoval remind us all of a simpler time, when players didn't train year round and pizza and gummi bears were still plentiful in the clubhouse. Nowadays, agents have their own training facilities and everyone has their own specialized diets. God bless you, fat men (even if, like Molina, you suck). Who's your favorite fat guy?
G is for Gonzalez. Whether it's Adrian, Alex, Carlos, Gio or Mike, it seems like Gonzalez's are everywhere these days. We have Gonzalez's who manage (Fredi) and even with two of the most famous Gonzalez's (Juan and Luis) retired, there are still so many Gonzalez's that we are now importing them to Japan (i.e. Edgar)! As the Latinification of the game continues unabated, names like "Gonzalez," "Martinez" and "Rodriguez" are becoming just as prevalent as "Smith" and "Jones." And frankly, it's a beautiful thing.
H is for Hanley, as in Hanley Ramirez, the most under appreciated player in the game. Not many players can put up a 20-20 (homers and steals) season and hit .300, all while playing the toughest position on the field in shortstop. But Ramirez has done it three seasons in a row, and one of them was actually a 30-30 season. The knock on Ramirez used to be his defense, but he has improved dramatically there as well. In 2007, his UZR was -19.2, but in 'o8 he posted a basically even mark of -0.7, and followed that up last year with a -0.3. He may never be Ozzie Smith with the glove, but he has done enough to quell rumors of a position switch. When MVP voters once again get bored with voting for Albert Pujols, let's hope they turn to Hanley.
I is for Igloo, which is what the new Target Field in Minnesota might end up being nicknamed. Minneapolis is now the northernmost city (by latitude) to have an open-air-only ballpark. Their average April temperatures range from a low of 36 degrees to a high of 57, which is remarkably similar to Denver's April averages of 34 and 60. And while the Rockies definitely have to be creative to bring the crowds out in April, at least Rockies fans, and Colorado sports fans in general, are used to games outdoors. In Minnesota, everything is played indoors, and the Twins could be in for a rude awakening. For their sake, let's hope I'm wrong.
J is for Jeff, as in Jeff Moorad, who has to be one of the most fascinating men in the game today. He went from being a super-agent that negotiated $100 million-plus deals for the likes of Manny Ramirez, to the opposite side of the table as part-owner of the Diamondbacks, and now he has hopped teams within the team to the San Diego Padres. We need to know more about how this was possible.
K is for Kemp, as in Matt Kemp. With Manny Ramirez seemingly in decline, guys like Andre Ethier, James Loney, Russell Martin and Chad Billinglsey seemingly already hitting or at their peaks, and a future leader in Clayton Kershaw maybe not ready to be "the guy," the onus on the Dodgers now falls squarely on Kemp. Unfortunately for Dodgers fans, Kemp probably isn't up to that challenge. If you could date Rihanna, you probably wouldn't be up for it either...
L is for Lackey, as in John Lackey, the Red Sox's newest toy. Will he butt heads with fellow Texan Josh Beckett, or will they get along like the Texas tough boys that they are? And is Lackey enough to make Boston's new pitching and defense plan succeed? Probably, as long as he stays on the field.
M is for Mets, the one team that makes the Giants look like a bunch of Mensa scholars. This is a team, who even with Johan Santana and Frankie Rodriguez, managed to only have the 21st best ERA in the Majors last year, yet decided that heading into this season the only pitcher they needed to acquire was Fernando Nieve. Just...wow.
N is for Nyjer, as in Nyjer Morgan. In the past three seasons, the Nats center fielder of the "future" went from being Lastings Milledge, to Elijah Dukes, to Morgan. How long can Morgan hold the mantle before the Nats find another "solution?" Only time will tell. In the interim, Morgan figures to steal a boatload of bases.
O is for One hundred and two, which will be the number of seasons since the Cubs have won a World Series when they fail to do so once again this year. Hitler was right, the Cubs have quite the history of sucking!
P is for Prospects, of whom there will be many this season. Aside from Heyward and Stephen Strasburg, I am looking forward to seeing how Neftali Feliz and Justin Smoak can contribute to the Rangers chase, how Brian Matusz and Wade Davis handle the AL Beast. I am looking forward to guys like Junichi Tazawa and Eric Young, Jr. vying for permanent roles in the Majors, and to see if Austin Jackson can prove the Yankees wrong, if Andrew McCutchen is really the savior that Pittsburgh needs and if Mat Latos can be San Diego's replacement for Jake Peavy. And I'm just as excited to see what year two brings for guys like David Price (well, his second full year), Matt Wieters and Gordon Beckham. But most importantly, I'm looking forward to the next great unknown, the next big surprise, the next guy who gets called up as an injury replacement and never looks back. That's what makes baseball so great.
Q is for Quentin, as in Carlos Quentin. Two years ago, Quentin was busy mashing. He knocked 36 homers, and he wasn't a US Cellular mirage, as his .950 road OPS was more than comparable to his .979 home OPS in the cozy confines of the Cell. His performance paced the White Sox into the postseason, and he finished 5th in the MVP vote. Last year was essentially a lost year for Quentin, as injuries held him to 99 games and a disappointing .456 SLG. Unsurprisingly, the White Sox struggled to replace his bat in the lineup. Entering his age 27 season, this will be Quentin's defining season. Can he finally shake the whispers that he's too fragile, or will he succumb to injury once again (he has never played more than 130 games in any of his four big-league seasons)? South Siders are hoping for the former.
R is for
S is for
T is for Tulowitzki, as in Troy Tulowitzki. Tulowitzki is one big question away from superduper-stardom - can he get out of the gate strong? He is yet to have even a marginally good April, as his April OPS of .617 is more than 100 points lower than his OPS in any other month, and is more than 200 points lower than his career OPS. His idol, Derek Jeter, is so consistent, that his monthly OPS marks fall into a 62-point range. Tulowitzki's fall into a 312 point range. If he can change that, he'll pick up some more MVP votes, and will certainly make the Rockies a World Series contender.
U is for
V is for Votto, as in Joey Votto. Votto may not be the absolute key to the Reds success, as they have so many talented young players, but he is certainly one of their vital cogs. Votto had some personal issues last season, and it would be nice to see him overcome those this season.
W is for Wood, as in Brandon Wood. Like BJ Upton, Wood was once an uber-hyped prospect. Unlike Upton, Wood has never been given an extended chance at flashing that potential...until now. The Angels are banking that Wood can effectively replace Chone Figgins in the lineup, albeit in a different fashion. If Wood is able to replace him both offensively and defensively, it will go a long way towards keeping the Halo's in contention in 2010.
X is for X marks the spot. Here are my regular season predictions for 2010. I am going to refrain from making postseason predictions, because not only are they pointless, but they detract from my enjoyment of the season., as I root to be right rather than just enjoying the ride. When making these predictions, I like to look at league strength. After posting an average record of 82.6-79.4 in 2008, the American League dropped down more than one-half win to 81.9-80.1 last season. I continued that downward trend, giving AL teams an average record of 81.5-80.5, with the NL average being almost exactly opposite at 80.6-81.4.
Rank...Team...Record
- NYY...97-65 - AL East champion
- BOS...96-66 - AL Wild Card
- PHI...95-67 - NL East champion
- COL...94-68 - NL West champion
- STL...92-70 - NL Central champion
- TB...91-71
- TEX...89-73 - AL West champion
- ATL...88-74 - NL Wild Card
- MIN...88-74 - AL Central champion
- LAD...87-75
- LAA...87-75
- SEA...85-77
- FLO...85-77
- SF...84-78
- CIN...82-80
- OAK...81-81
- ARI...80-82
- MIL...79-83
- CHC...79-83
- CHW...78-84
- DET...75-87
- NYM...75-87
- BAL...73-89
- HOU...71-91
- CLE...70-92
- TOR...69-93
- SD...69-93
- PIT...65-97
- WAS...64-98
- KC...62-100
AL MVP - Evan Longoria
NL MVP - Hanley Ramirez
AL Cy Young - Jon Lester
NL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum
I can't think of a good AL Rookie of the Year, but I'll take Heyward in the NL.
Y is for YOUUUUUUKKKKKKK (sorry, had to), and for the Yankees. Once again, the Yankees enter the season as the favorite. And once again, their lineup is balanced, and they have depth on the bench and in the 'pen. Brian Cashman has really done a fantastic job of building his roster 1-25 this year and last. Last year was the first time the Yanks outperformed their Pythagorean record by 5 or more games since '05, and it was because they finally got back to doing those typical "Yankee" things. Hopefully they revert to their '06-'08 ways this season, but I'm not holding my breath.
Z is for Zanadu (I know, I'm cheating a little, it's usually spelled with an X. Deal with it, it's late), which is where I feel I am now that it's baseball season. The best day all year (other than my wedding anniversary, and soon, my newborn's birthday) is Opening Day. Bud Selig's most eloquent phrase ever, and granted it's a short list, is that each season offers the "hope and faith" that your team can win. And that begins on Opening Day. Hot dogs. Beer. Baseball. Let's get it on.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
MLB 2010, Part One
Before the start of each season, I like to look back at my projections and see how I did. In 2007, I had a pretty damn good year, picking 17 of the 30 teams within 5 games of their actual record, and finishing an average of only 6 games off for all teams. 2008? Not so much. It was a much worse season. So how did I do in 2009? In between, of course:
# Gms Off.....2007.....2008.....2009
0..................3...........2............3
1-5...............14..........6...........9
6-10.............7...........10.........9
11-15...........5............6...........5
16+..............1............6...........4
Avg Off........6.10.......9.93......8.07
On the positive end of the spectrum, I perfectly nailed my predictions for Boston (95 wins), Milwaukee (80) and Philadelphia (93). On the negative end, I completely blew predictions for Kansas City (81 wins projected, they actually won 65), Detroit (65-86), Cleveland (87-65) and the New York Mets (94-70). While I can fall back on the old injury excuse with the Mets, I did a very poor job of reading the AL Central last year. In fact, the AL Central has proven to be my most challenging division:
Avg # Games Off, 2007-2009
AL East...6.53
NL Cent...7.13
AL West...7.67
NL West...8.33
NL East...8.73
AL Cent...9.80
My AL Central predictions have been more than a game worse than any other division. What makes that figure even worse is the fact that 2 of my 8 perfect predictions were the Royals in 2007 and 2008.
But individually, the team I have had the least luck predicting is the Seattle Mariners. It is the only team with which I have been off by 16 or more games more than once in the past three seasons.
I am currently working on my 2010 predictions, and will try to have them up before the season starts. As an aside, I was going to work on a post about my fantasy draft last week, but I am flying home for my long-standing fantasy league this weekend, and I need to get my season predictions in order as well, so that post will have to be moved to the back-burner.
# Gms Off.....2007.....2008.....2009
0..................3...........2............3
1-5...............14..........6...........9
6-10.............7...........10.........9
11-15...........5............6...........5
16+..............1............6...........4
Avg Off........6.10.......9.93......8.07
On the positive end of the spectrum, I perfectly nailed my predictions for Boston (95 wins), Milwaukee (80) and Philadelphia (93). On the negative end, I completely blew predictions for Kansas City (81 wins projected, they actually won 65), Detroit (65-86), Cleveland (87-65) and the New York Mets (94-70). While I can fall back on the old injury excuse with the Mets, I did a very poor job of reading the AL Central last year. In fact, the AL Central has proven to be my most challenging division:
Avg # Games Off, 2007-2009
AL East...6.53
NL Cent...7.13
AL West...7.67
NL West...8.33
NL East...8.73
AL Cent...9.80
My AL Central predictions have been more than a game worse than any other division. What makes that figure even worse is the fact that 2 of my 8 perfect predictions were the Royals in 2007 and 2008.
But individually, the team I have had the least luck predicting is the Seattle Mariners. It is the only team with which I have been off by 16 or more games more than once in the past three seasons.
I am currently working on my 2010 predictions, and will try to have them up before the season starts. As an aside, I was going to work on a post about my fantasy draft last week, but I am flying home for my long-standing fantasy league this weekend, and I need to get my season predictions in order as well, so that post will have to be moved to the back-burner.
Tuesday, March 09, 2010
The Oscar's
My wife and I went over to a friend's house Sunday night to watch the 82nd Academy Awards. It was the first time we had planned an evening around watching the Oscar's, or any other awards show for that matter. I guess that means we're getting old. As is custom with these sorts of things, we all filled out ballots to see how many of the categories we could predict correctly. But I'll get to that later. Here are some notes I took down during the telecast:
- I felt particularly prepared for this Oscar telecast. Not only had we seen all 10 movies nominated for Best Picture (see my brief thoughts on them here), but we had seen many of the other movies that were nominated for Academy Awards, including Julie & Julia, Coraline (which we actually watched just a couple of hours before leaving for my friends house), Harry Potter & The Half-Blood Prince, Star Trek & Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. But there were still a few we missed that I was putting in my mental queue throughout the night: The Messenger, Crazy Heart, In The Loop, A Single Man, The Secret of the Kells and The Princess & The Frog.
- Speaking of those last two animated movies, I want to see them chiefly to see how it is possible that those two movies were nominated over Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, which I thought was phenomenal. The other real big snub to me was Sam Rockwell being left off Best Actor in favor of Morgan Freeman. I didn't see Invictus, but by all accounts it was a) not a good movie and b) Freeman's role wasn't a dominant one. Certainly, it had to have been less dominant than Rockwell's in Moon.
- Carey Mulligan: shoulder-length brown hair > short blond hair, but she's still a stunner either way. And in a bit of an upset, she was at least as attractive, if not more, than Zoe Saldana. Although I think a lot of that had to due with Saldana's dress, which was sort of strange.
- When I first saw Neil Patrick Harris come out on stage, I was thinking, 'Really? Him again?' But he actually did a marvelous job.
- I didn't get the Meryl Streep Hitler memorabilia joke, but I'd like to. Someone help me out with that.
- I thought it was funny how they made deliberate attempts to keep young people invested in the show, both with the jokes in the opening comedy routine from Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin, and then later with the horror montage and by having Taylor Lautner present an award. The funnies Lautner moment though was when they showed him during the touching John Hughes tribute, and he had that "Who the hell is John Hughes?" look on his face. Ah, youth.
- I loved the fact that the guys from Up were wearing the grape soda pins. It's the little things like that that keep Pixar on top year after year.
- I still don't understand why Joe Montana is endorsing Skechers.
- For all the talk of shortening the program, the night was an epic fail from ABC in terms of keeping it in the allotted time. 57 minutes into the telecast only four awards had been handed out. At that point, they rattled off a number of the less popular awards, but it really shouldn't have taken 57 minutes to do four awards. And while steps like adding a backstage cam for extra thank yous and eliminating the best original song performances were a nice idea, they seemed to make up for it with the extra musical number by NPH, the interpretative dance, the extra opening joke time for Martin & Baldwin (I can't call it a monologue because there was two of them. What do you call that?), the Paranormal Activity skit and the horror montage. Some of that was fun to watch, particularly the opening bits, but, I mean don't they have rehearsals for these things? It's unfathomable to me that you could run 32 minutes over by accident. And while maybe that wouldn't have been a big deal a few years back, we now live in the DVR world. At my friend's house, we had to stop watching on two separate occasions in order to go live and tape the next program so that we didn't miss anything that was happening. Not only was that annoying but we also messed up and had one of the awards spoiled for us. Thanks, ABC.
- I can't tell what delighted me more, that women interrupting during the Music From Prudence acceptance speech, or the fact that "Kanye'd" is now part of our lexicon. I think the latter, mainly because I feel bad for the director after reading a little about why that happened, but I still like saying "Kanye'd."
- Charlize Theron could have easily played the "huge b*tch" role in Deuce Bigalow. She's just so tall. And the massive bulls eyes on her boobies weren't helping the matter. (And yes, in case you're wondering, I did just work in a Deuce Bigalow reference into my Oscar post. Boo yah!)
- My friend was very impressed with Demi Moore's outfit until they panned to her feet, and she decried Moore's "stripper shoes." I felt like that had to be mentioned.
- Can we stop pretending that Kristen Stewart is attractive? Because she's definitely not.
- There is a little known rule that whenever dancers are present at an awards show Jennifer Lopez has to be there to either present them or be shown in the crowd during their performance.
- I thought it was interesting that they had Gerard Butler and Bradley Cooper present the award for Best Visual Effects. The Academy knew they had to find a way to keep women invested during the geeky Best Visual Effects award, and they scored big time with that presenting duo. Both my wife and our friend (who's a girl) thoroughly approved. As did I (wink)!
- It was kind of cool that they had people related to the director or lead actor in some way presenting the clips for Best Picture. Right up until they had Jason Bateman present for Up In The Air. Then it was no longer clever, since he was actually in that movie. They couldn't find Jennifer Garner, Ellen Page, Michael Cera, Katie Holmes, J.K. Simmons, Aaron Eckhart or one of Jason Reitman's other previous stars do that clip? Or someone tangential to Clooney, like Brad Pitt or Matt Damon? That just seemed weird that they would go to all that trouble with the other nine movies, and then not with Up In The Air.
- The funniest line of the night outside of the opening comedy routine had to be when Juan Jose Campanella, the director of El Secreto de Sus Ojos quipped, "I'm just glad they didn't consider Na'vi a foreign language."
- Julianne Moore is underrated. Morgan Freeman looked drunk.
- What a ride for Gabourey Sidibe, nominated for Best Actress in her first-ever role, and at the Oscar's she was introduced by Oprah Winfrey, who also was nominated for an Oscar in her first-ever role (though it was for Best Supporting Actress).
- The Best Speech of the night came down to three people - Mo'Nique, Michael Giacchino (who won for Best Original Score in Up) and Sandra Bullock. It was almost a tie between the latter two, and only because they chose different directions with their speech. Both were very touching, but for different reasons. Bullock went the traditional route, thanking those close to her, including her mom. Meanwhile, Giacchino's message to young people that they pursue their dreams no matter what anyone says was very uplifting as well. But Bullock's speech also had lesbian jokes, so she wins.
- You knew that Kathryn Bigelow had won Best Director the moment Barbara Streisand's name was announced. There was literally no other reason for her to be there. She hasn't appeared in a movie since Meet The Fockers in 2004.
- I think that I have a hard time getting worked up over the incredibly political decisions that the Academy makes these days. They're pretty predictable. On the one hand, you have a movie that literally made a billion dollars, and has already been so influential that at least two movies that were slated to be released less than six months after it were converted to 3D in post-production (Alice in Wonderland and Clash of the Titans). Avatar is literally a movie that may wind up saving the movie business and boosting television sales as well. On the other hand, you have a movie that does a very nice job of attacking the war on Iraq and how terrifying it is to be a soldier in today's military, and to boot the movie was directed by a woman. The Hurt Locker was going to get picked ten times out of ten. The sad thing is that this is exactly what the Academy claimed they were trying to avoid when they bumped to ten Best Picture nominees. All I know is that in 30 years - hell, in 15 years - no one is going to remember 2009 as the year of The Hurt Locker, they will remember it as the year of Avatar. And all other things being equal, that should count for something. In years where there isn't a standout either critically or at the box office, all bets are off. But that's not what we had here. But is it worth getting worked up over? No, not really.
- Finally, let's take a look at my predictions. There are 24 categories in all, and I correctly picked the winner in 13 of the 24 categories. But five of them are not dedicated to American, full-length theatrical releases - Best Foreign Film, Best Documentary Feature, Best Documentary (short subject), Best Short Film (Animated) and Best Short Film (Live Action). There were two others categories where I hadn't seen any of the nominated films - Best Costume Design and Best Original Song. And while I certainly offered a prediction on those seven categories (I even nailed Best Documentary Feature, as I had heard of The Cove), it was in the other 17 that I felt qualified to offer an opinion. And I correctly predicted 12 of these 17. On my Twitter feed, I correctly nailed six of the seven biggies before the telecast - Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Animated feature. The only one I missed was Best Actor, and perhaps my opinion would be different had I seen Crazy Heart. In the other 10 categories, I suppose you'll have to take my word for it, but I nailed six. However, my strategy with these 10 categories was fairly simple - vote for Avatar. I voted for Avatar in six of these 10 categories. In fact, three of the four that I predicted incorrectly were categories in which I voted for Avatar, but in which The Hurt Locker took home the statue. In the fourth, Best Original Screenplay, I had voted for Inglorious Basterds. Nevertheless, I feel pretty good about my showing, not a bad job by me. I'll try to do better next year.
- I felt particularly prepared for this Oscar telecast. Not only had we seen all 10 movies nominated for Best Picture (see my brief thoughts on them here), but we had seen many of the other movies that were nominated for Academy Awards, including Julie & Julia, Coraline (which we actually watched just a couple of hours before leaving for my friends house), Harry Potter & The Half-Blood Prince, Star Trek & Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. But there were still a few we missed that I was putting in my mental queue throughout the night: The Messenger, Crazy Heart, In The Loop, A Single Man, The Secret of the Kells and The Princess & The Frog.
- Speaking of those last two animated movies, I want to see them chiefly to see how it is possible that those two movies were nominated over Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, which I thought was phenomenal. The other real big snub to me was Sam Rockwell being left off Best Actor in favor of Morgan Freeman. I didn't see Invictus, but by all accounts it was a) not a good movie and b) Freeman's role wasn't a dominant one. Certainly, it had to have been less dominant than Rockwell's in Moon.
- Carey Mulligan: shoulder-length brown hair > short blond hair, but she's still a stunner either way. And in a bit of an upset, she was at least as attractive, if not more, than Zoe Saldana. Although I think a lot of that had to due with Saldana's dress, which was sort of strange.
- When I first saw Neil Patrick Harris come out on stage, I was thinking, 'Really? Him again?' But he actually did a marvelous job.
- I didn't get the Meryl Streep Hitler memorabilia joke, but I'd like to. Someone help me out with that.
- I thought it was funny how they made deliberate attempts to keep young people invested in the show, both with the jokes in the opening comedy routine from Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin, and then later with the horror montage and by having Taylor Lautner present an award. The funnies Lautner moment though was when they showed him during the touching John Hughes tribute, and he had that "Who the hell is John Hughes?" look on his face. Ah, youth.
- I loved the fact that the guys from Up were wearing the grape soda pins. It's the little things like that that keep Pixar on top year after year.
- I still don't understand why Joe Montana is endorsing Skechers.
- For all the talk of shortening the program, the night was an epic fail from ABC in terms of keeping it in the allotted time. 57 minutes into the telecast only four awards had been handed out. At that point, they rattled off a number of the less popular awards, but it really shouldn't have taken 57 minutes to do four awards. And while steps like adding a backstage cam for extra thank yous and eliminating the best original song performances were a nice idea, they seemed to make up for it with the extra musical number by NPH, the interpretative dance, the extra opening joke time for Martin & Baldwin (I can't call it a monologue because there was two of them. What do you call that?), the Paranormal Activity skit and the horror montage. Some of that was fun to watch, particularly the opening bits, but, I mean don't they have rehearsals for these things? It's unfathomable to me that you could run 32 minutes over by accident. And while maybe that wouldn't have been a big deal a few years back, we now live in the DVR world. At my friend's house, we had to stop watching on two separate occasions in order to go live and tape the next program so that we didn't miss anything that was happening. Not only was that annoying but we also messed up and had one of the awards spoiled for us. Thanks, ABC.
- I can't tell what delighted me more, that women interrupting during the Music From Prudence acceptance speech, or the fact that "Kanye'd" is now part of our lexicon. I think the latter, mainly because I feel bad for the director after reading a little about why that happened, but I still like saying "Kanye'd."
- Charlize Theron could have easily played the "huge b*tch" role in Deuce Bigalow. She's just so tall. And the massive bulls eyes on her boobies weren't helping the matter. (And yes, in case you're wondering, I did just work in a Deuce Bigalow reference into my Oscar post. Boo yah!)
- My friend was very impressed with Demi Moore's outfit until they panned to her feet, and she decried Moore's "stripper shoes." I felt like that had to be mentioned.
- Can we stop pretending that Kristen Stewart is attractive? Because she's definitely not.
- There is a little known rule that whenever dancers are present at an awards show Jennifer Lopez has to be there to either present them or be shown in the crowd during their performance.
- I thought it was interesting that they had Gerard Butler and Bradley Cooper present the award for Best Visual Effects. The Academy knew they had to find a way to keep women invested during the geeky Best Visual Effects award, and they scored big time with that presenting duo. Both my wife and our friend (who's a girl) thoroughly approved. As did I (wink)!
- It was kind of cool that they had people related to the director or lead actor in some way presenting the clips for Best Picture. Right up until they had Jason Bateman present for Up In The Air. Then it was no longer clever, since he was actually in that movie. They couldn't find Jennifer Garner, Ellen Page, Michael Cera, Katie Holmes, J.K. Simmons, Aaron Eckhart or one of Jason Reitman's other previous stars do that clip? Or someone tangential to Clooney, like Brad Pitt or Matt Damon? That just seemed weird that they would go to all that trouble with the other nine movies, and then not with Up In The Air.
- The funniest line of the night outside of the opening comedy routine had to be when Juan Jose Campanella, the director of El Secreto de Sus Ojos quipped, "I'm just glad they didn't consider Na'vi a foreign language."
- Julianne Moore is underrated. Morgan Freeman looked drunk.
- What a ride for Gabourey Sidibe, nominated for Best Actress in her first-ever role, and at the Oscar's she was introduced by Oprah Winfrey, who also was nominated for an Oscar in her first-ever role (though it was for Best Supporting Actress).
- The Best Speech of the night came down to three people - Mo'Nique, Michael Giacchino (who won for Best Original Score in Up) and Sandra Bullock. It was almost a tie between the latter two, and only because they chose different directions with their speech. Both were very touching, but for different reasons. Bullock went the traditional route, thanking those close to her, including her mom. Meanwhile, Giacchino's message to young people that they pursue their dreams no matter what anyone says was very uplifting as well. But Bullock's speech also had lesbian jokes, so she wins.
- You knew that Kathryn Bigelow had won Best Director the moment Barbara Streisand's name was announced. There was literally no other reason for her to be there. She hasn't appeared in a movie since Meet The Fockers in 2004.
- I think that I have a hard time getting worked up over the incredibly political decisions that the Academy makes these days. They're pretty predictable. On the one hand, you have a movie that literally made a billion dollars, and has already been so influential that at least two movies that were slated to be released less than six months after it were converted to 3D in post-production (Alice in Wonderland and Clash of the Titans). Avatar is literally a movie that may wind up saving the movie business and boosting television sales as well. On the other hand, you have a movie that does a very nice job of attacking the war on Iraq and how terrifying it is to be a soldier in today's military, and to boot the movie was directed by a woman. The Hurt Locker was going to get picked ten times out of ten. The sad thing is that this is exactly what the Academy claimed they were trying to avoid when they bumped to ten Best Picture nominees. All I know is that in 30 years - hell, in 15 years - no one is going to remember 2009 as the year of The Hurt Locker, they will remember it as the year of Avatar. And all other things being equal, that should count for something. In years where there isn't a standout either critically or at the box office, all bets are off. But that's not what we had here. But is it worth getting worked up over? No, not really.
- Finally, let's take a look at my predictions. There are 24 categories in all, and I correctly picked the winner in 13 of the 24 categories. But five of them are not dedicated to American, full-length theatrical releases - Best Foreign Film, Best Documentary Feature, Best Documentary (short subject), Best Short Film (Animated) and Best Short Film (Live Action). There were two others categories where I hadn't seen any of the nominated films - Best Costume Design and Best Original Song. And while I certainly offered a prediction on those seven categories (I even nailed Best Documentary Feature, as I had heard of The Cove), it was in the other 17 that I felt qualified to offer an opinion. And I correctly predicted 12 of these 17. On my Twitter feed, I correctly nailed six of the seven biggies before the telecast - Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Animated feature. The only one I missed was Best Actor, and perhaps my opinion would be different had I seen Crazy Heart. In the other 10 categories, I suppose you'll have to take my word for it, but I nailed six. However, my strategy with these 10 categories was fairly simple - vote for Avatar. I voted for Avatar in six of these 10 categories. In fact, three of the four that I predicted incorrectly were categories in which I voted for Avatar, but in which The Hurt Locker took home the statue. In the fourth, Best Original Screenplay, I had voted for Inglorious Basterds. Nevertheless, I feel pretty good about my showing, not a bad job by me. I'll try to do better next year.
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