The Pats Pass Defense Isn't THAT Bad

Common wisdom this season is that the Patriots have an abysmal pass defense. After all, they have allowed 3,460 yards through the air, which right now, is the worst in the league, but unless the Texans allow less than 11 yards through the air it will rank 31st in the league come tomorrow morning. On a per game basis, the Pats are allowing 266 yards through the air in each game, which again, is second worst in the league. That's pretty bad, but one problem you encounter when you look at bulk stats is that they provide little context. In the Patriots case, the context is this: in 10 of the Patriots 11 wins, they have had a fourth quarter lead of 10 or more points. Pop quiz: when teams are down 10 or more points in the fourth quarter, what do they do? Answer: they throw the ball. A lot. And so it has been for the Patriots this season. Here are the yardage totals accumulated by the aforementioned 10 teams while they trailed by 10 or more in the fourth quarter against the Pats this season:

TEAM YARDS
CIN 98
BUF 70
MIA 66
SD 123
MIN 99
PIT 252
IND 90
DET 83
NYJ 47
CHI 56
TOTAL 984

The Pittsburgh total is staggering. Trailing 23-3 entering the fourth quarter, the Steelers tacked on three fourth quarter touchdowns, none of which brought them closer than 10 points behind. In fact, with the clock running out, and the Steelers down 13, with no hope of winning, the Steelers ran the clock down to zero by passing for an additional 68 yards. They reached the New England seven, which I'm sure thrilled Ben Roethlisberger fantasy owners, but did absolutely nothing to win them the game.

Altogether, these 984 passing yards allowed represent 28.44 percent of the total passing yards allowed by the Pats this season. That's a pretty large total, and one that makes the bulk total allowed seem a bit more reasonable. You can't hand waive the 984 yards. After all, they DID allow the yards, and in two cases - San Diego and Indy - legitimately allowed the teams back in the game to the point where each had a chance to tie or win in the final seconds. However, given this data, it's also not fair to say that the Pats have the worst pass defense in the league either.

Through games played yesterday, the Pats have the 5th best interception rate in the league, as they have intercepted an even 4 percent of the passes thrown against them (20 of 500). Now, they have had more opportunities, as those 500 attempts are most in the league, but they are getting to balls. Not that I'm suggesting the Pats have the 5th best pass defense in the league, I'm not. I think they fall in the 20's somewhere. Through week 13, Football Outsiders had the Pats pass defense ranked 26th, and through yesterday, the Pats yards allowed pass rank was 22nd. Neither of these are particularly sterling marks, but I think that their true rank is somewhere between those two figures. It's a young, gambling defense that can hurt the team but also generate the big play. It's among the worst in the league, but having big leads has unfairly fueled a far too negative perception of the Pats pass defense overall.