NL Preview

If you missed the AL Preview, it's right here. If you weren't prepared for the AL Preview, well, as they say in Hollywood, "you ain't seen nothing yet". Let's get right to it.

NL East Record GB
Phillie 91-71 --
Braves** 87-75 4
Mets 85-77 6
Marlins 83-79 8
Nationals 65-97 26

Two things to note here. One, someone finally wrestles away the NL East from Atlanta, and that someone is Philly. Second, I have the Phillies as the best team in the NL this year, and that would make them the Wild Card in the AL, which tells you all you need to know about the balance of the leagues.

Why will this finally be Philly's year?
1) The media doesn't have Larry Bowa to beat around anymore.
2) Eric Milton and Kevin Milwood were replaced by Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle. While they are relatively similar in talent, Lieber and Lidle figure to be healthier and steadier than Millwood and Milton. This should help a great deal.
3) Chase Utley and Ryan Madson get further established further in the Majors.
4) Gavin Floyd emerges
5) They have Jose Offerman!

Ok, so maybe #5 is a joke, but the Phillies are a very good team, and the Braves will not be able to hang. The combo of Mondesi and Jordan isn't going to last for even a half season. That could get ugly, or it could lead the Braves to put Andy Marte in at 3B and push Chipper Jones to the OF. Let's hope for option B, but I still don't think it will be enough to overtake the Phils, either for the division or for the NL crown. But they will hang around enough to make it interesting.

Count me among the minority in the "Marlins are overrated" camp. I just don't see it. This is a team wasting roster spots on Jeff Conine, Damion Easley, Chris Aguila, Lenny Harris, Juan Encarnacion, and Brian Moehler. Moehler came out of nowhere, and BP doesn't even have a PECOTA projection for him. Their bullpen doesn't impress me either, there's not one guy outside of "closer" Guillermo Mota who I'd want on a team I was building. There is a lot of very good top shelf talent on this Marlins team, but the rest of the team doesn't have much to offer. In a tight race, I'd rather Placido Polanco than Damion Easley, or Jason Michaels over Chris Aguila.

NL Central Record GB
Brewers 87-75 --
Cardinals 86-76 1
Cubs 83-79 4
Reds 75-87 12
Astros 69-93 18
Pirates 68-94 19

Yes, those Brewers. The same Brewers whose mascot, Bernie, has a slide, and the same Brewers who have those fantastic sausage races. Yes, them. As I mentioned in my first article on Baseball Prospectus back in January (yes I really wrote it) the Brewers offense is going to be much better this year. This, along with a solid bullpen, a good rotation featuring Ben Sheets, Doug Davis, and Chris Capuano, and some breakdowns elsewhere in the division, add up to a Brewers division crown. You heard it here first.

The Cards will provide the toughest competition, but their Team Health Report was frightening. Only 2 of 17 players received green lights, and when those 2 guys are So Taguchi and Jeff Suppan, it reminds me of that old Sporty Thieves ditty - "Uh oh, those chicks ain't gettin nada". The Cards aren't chicks, but somewhere along the line injuries are going to play a role. The Cards front office does come up with some very nice trades, and that will have to be the case again this year. Baseball America ranked their farm system 30th out of 30 teams, and they will not find much help there.

Elsewhere, the Cubs will be slightly above average, but in the end will find a way to blow it. The Reds could be better if they keep Griffey and Kearns healthy, but as Homer likes to say "sweety that's a pretty big if". The Astros are barely going to be watchable, and the Pirates will not be. Poor senor Serbin, I mourn thee.

NL West Record GB
Rockies 85-77 --
Giants 85-77 --
Padres 82-80 3
Dodgers 78-84 7
D-Backs 69-93 16

This is truly a dismal group. To be sure, while I see the Brewers as a legitimate threat, there is a little bit of work-related bias in this Rockies selection. But not much. The Rockies are heading into this season with possibly their best rotation ever. Smart acquisitions for Mike Restovich and Bobby Seay have only solidified my thinking in the past week. The Rockies have a good risk/reward proposition with BK Kim, who looked great this past week. 4 innings, 4 baserunners, 6 ground balls vs. 3 fly balls = so far so good. In addition, the Rockies can look forward to a full year of Preston Wilson, and the emergence of young guns Matt Holliday, JD Closser, Brad Hawpe, and Clint Barmes. They're a young team that plays well together, enjoys each others company, and will be a tough beat.

Injuries to Barry Bonds and Moises Alou will make it an uphill climb for the Giants. That is nothing compared to the tap-dance act that Jim Tracy will have managing a rotation that features wounded/battered pitchers Brad Penny, Eric Gagne, Odalis Perez, Wilson Alvarez, and Scott Erickson, they are going to have a tough time competing, let alone winning. It is a testament to Jim Tracy and Paul DePodesta that I have them pegged for 78 wins at all.

The Padres will come up just short, as they have too many players who are on the back nine of their careers. They also signed Woody Williams. I don't know why either. The D-Backs are thinking that Russ Ortiz is as good as Randy Johnson. They also think that their pathetic offense was one Troy Glaus away from respectability. They're wrong on both accounts. Arizona also lost their two best offensive players in Shea Hillenbrand and Steve Finley. Troy Glaus will help with some of that, but the D-Backs off-season was a classic case of activity being misconstrued as progress. They will suck, many much sucking.

On to the playoffs:

NLDS
1 Phillies vs. 3 Rockies
Phillies in 4 games

2 Brewers vs. 4 Braves
Braves in 4 games

NLCS
1 Phillies vs. 4 Braves
Phillies over Braves in 7 games

The Rockies and Brewers magical rides will end quickly. The Rockies will get one win out of 2006 ace Jeff Francis, but otherwise will not have enough in the end to beat the Phils. The Braves veteran moxie will be good for the edge over Milwaukee. This sets up the NL East matchup in the NLCS. This will be a great matchup. In the end, I just like the Phillies this year. I'm sure I could come up with a better explanation, but I just think it boils down to that in the end.