Fantasy football season went swimmingly, and I was victorious, ripping off a 44 point victory in the Finals on the strength of superior performances by Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasselbeck, and the Bears D in Week 16. The only disappointment of the season, Kevin Jones, was tempered by picking up Cadillac Williams in Round 10, and I got excellent value there.
In fantasy baseball, I've been adding to my stockpile of pitching in my Scoresheet league, picking up Mark Buehrle, Ervin Santana, and Jeremy Sowers. I also traded for Bengie Molina.
I had a great Christmas and New Year's, getting to see everyone in both mine and my wife's family over the holidays. I also got to take in the Pats at Jets games in the Meadowlands, where I was able to get to watch the players warm up on the field. Good times all around.
I never got around to making any NBA predictions this season, but things don't look good for the Celtics thus far. Doc Rivers really needs to play Big Al more. If he continuously gets into foul trouble, then it would seem to me that he needs to learn how to play WITH fouls so he can learn to be more graceful. Yanking him every time he picks up a couple quick fouls isn't going to help his development.
Got a lot of books and DVD's for Christmas, it could be a long time before I'm back in this space, I have a lot of media to enjoy. Speaking of media(s), King Kong was excellent. I especially enjoyed the T-Rex fights and the Brontosaurus stampede. Overall, a very nice film. Jack Black rulz. Saw 40-Year Old Virgin also. As with Anchorman, I'm upset with myself for not having seen that in the theater. Great flick. "You know how I know you're gay? Cause you listen to Coldplay."
And finally, it's NFL Playoffs time. A lot has changed in the past month. Three AFC teams with nine of more wins will miss the playoffs, that's how jacked the conference is. Anyone who thinks the Super Bowl champ will come from the NFC is dreaming. The runs by Miami, Washington, and NE have been fun to watch. San Diego's drop off has been disappointing. Without further ado, on to the picks:
AFC:
Jacksonville at New England - NE 33 -Jacksonville 14
Overall statistics matter little in this game, as New England has begun to dominate with their best players back in the lineup. After starting a mere 3-3, the Pats went 7-3 down the stretch, with the last loss tempered by the fact that they played the 2nd team most of the game. A lot will be made of the fact that the Jags finished 8-1, but their only loss was to the only good team they played: Indy. The other wins? Houston twice, Tennessee twice, Baltimore, Arizona, Cleveland, and San Francisco. Not exactly setting the world on fire with that schedule.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - Cincy 39 -Pittsburgh 36
The third meeting of the season, and this one should be more like the game earlier this month. Cincy's offense is good enough to carry them far in these playoffs, and it will carry the day against the Steelers, as Big Ben is still not right.
New England at Indianapolis - NE 42-Indy 31
In the first game, the line was 4 points. This was a game that featured a hobbling Corey Dillon, no Kevin Faulk, no Richard Seymour, and a secondary that was still gelling. The two keys here are Faulk and Seymour. Confronted with zone coverage from Indy most of the night, Brady spread the ball around a lot, and a lot of his 22 completions were dump offs. Having Kevin Faulk would have led to a lot more YAC on said dumpoffs, which would have helped open up the zone downfield and get the Pats better looks. Having Seymour would have turned a lot of those 8-9 yard Edge runs into 2-4 Edge runs. There will be other angles to digest and hash out, but I think those are the biggest.
Cincinnati at Denver - Cincy 28 -Denver 24
The key to beating Denver is getting an early lead and forcing them to pass from the pocket. Jake Plummer is not a good pocket passer. He is most effective when rolling out and utilizing play-action. Cincy is a horrible matchup for Denver because they can score points in a hurry. Expect this to happen. Denver will keep it close by forcing some turnovers after they fall behind, but will ultimately lose.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP - New England at Cincinnati - New England 24 - Cincinnati 9
Cincy will meet their doom here, as NE will be able to put the clamps on Rudi Johnson, forcing Cincy to be one dimensional and taking advantage of the predictability. The Pats will focus on clock-killin' Corey Dillon, who will get the ultimate revenge by sticking it to his former city and helping carry New England back to its 3rd straight Super Bowl.
NFC:
Washington at Tampa Bay -Washington 27, Tampa Bay 14
Washington is the hottest team in football right now. Tampa Bay will be trusting two green horns, Chris Simms and Cadillac Williams, to help them emerge victorious. Not buying. Tampa will fail to generate a lot of offense against the 'Skins hot D, and Washington will get the impressive road win.
Carolina at New York Giants - Carolina 21 - NY 20
This is the hardest game to pick out of the Wild Card matchups. I could see this one going either way. I am going to defer to Carolina because I had them as preseason favorites. Though they have not dominated like many thought possible, they have enough to get it done against the Giants. Barely. Expect a great performance by Tiki Barber to keep this thing close, and a good effort by Eli Manning. In the end, this game will be won on defense, and Carolina has the edge in that department.
Washington at Seattle - Washington 35 - Seattle 31
This is another tough call, but in the end, I can't stomach myself to believe a quarterback from Boston College has what it takes to lead his team to victory. Riding a guy during fantasy football season is one thing, backing him in the playoffs is quite another. Hasselbeck will make a key mistake at the wrong time, just like last year. Also, Washington will not be too banged up for this game, as they will have the chance to rest their regulars at the end of the Tampa Bay game.
Carolina at Chicago - Chicago 14 - Carolina 9
Just like in their last matchup, the Panthers will not reach the end zone, but they will claw out two more field goals. The Bears will do just enough on offense to win this game against what is a very good Carolina defense.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP - Washington at Chicago - Chicago 21 - Washington 16
The two best defenses in the NFL square off in this game, and the game will be won on defense, as each team will bring home a touchdown on defense - the Bears with an interception return for TD, the 'Skins on a sack, QB fumble, and a rumble to the promise land. However, the Bears will win the battle of field position, giving their offense the shorter field, which in the end will lead to more points for the new Monsters of the Midway.
SUPER BOWL XL - Chicago vs. New England - New England 30 - Chicago 10
That's right, the Super Bowl XX rematch. Oh the media is going to have a field day with this one. And while there won't be any Refrigerator Perry, there will be Ever-Able Mike Vrabel, catching a touchdown. You'll see all the tricks come out of Belichick's bag in this one - reverses, flea flickers, no down lineman, 3 safeties, etc., etc. The Bears do not usually get so drastic with their play calling, and their tendencies on offense will be easy to exploit.
In the Bears losses (not counting the Week 17 loss) they lost because the other team had a lot of options. Cincy, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh all had good performances on offense against the Bears, and the Pats offensive attack is as multi-dimensional, if not more. The Bears have been best at stopping the pass, but with a healthy Corey Dillon, Kevin Faulk, and Patrick Pass the Pats will mix up their running game, bringing different looks and churning out the yards.
Offensively, the Bears biggest strength is their running game. This is also the Pats biggest strength on defense. In short, the Bears aren't doing anything offensively against New England. Thomas Jones will be stuffed, and Grossman will be forced into obvious passing downs all day. In fact, the Bears will only be able to muster a field goal offensively, their lone touchdown coming on the defense's one big break of the day.
This will be the game that cements the Patriots as the greatest team of all-time, Tom Brady as the greatest QB of all-time, and Bill Belichick the greatest coach of all-time. You're probably thinking, "typical Paul, always picking the home team". Perhaps there is a bit of that in the mix. However, as good as the Bears defense is, the Patriots simply have too many weapons to throw at them.
No comments:
Post a Comment