Ty Warren Inactive Instant Reaction

Ty Warren is an inactive tonight against Indy. My first reaction to this was 'crap, we're screwed.' Then I calmed down and thought about it. Ty Warren's main impact this year has been on rushing downs, as he only has one sack so far on the season, and only has three sacks since the start of 2008. But will the Pats run D really miss Warren against Indy? Yes, it certainly means playing rookies like Myron Pryor and Ron Brace more, but let's look at Indy's rushing offense.

Entering today's games, Indy was 28th in rushing yards per game at 85.4, 27th in yards per carry at 3.7 and 29th in total rushing yards. Maybe Indy will use this personnel change to focus on the run game, but perhaps it won't matter.

In any case, I will still ride the Patriots 27-Colts 20 prediction.

My Top 100 Movies, Ver. 3.0

My top 100 movies is an idea I like to have fun with more than anything. It's completely unscientific, and it's certainly not an AFI ranking of the "best" movies ever. It's just the movies that I enjoy the most. This is my third go round, I do one per year. Usually I do it in the summer, but this summer I never really got around to it. For the first two runs, check here and here. This year, not as many films broke through to the top 100, though the ones that did I think were well deserved, and I think I cut out some good fat from the previous year's list. Let's start there.

Movies That Fell Out of My Top 100 (Previous Year's Rank)
- i Robot (54)
- Star Wars, Episode II: Attack of the Clones (58)
- Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (66)
- National Treasure (74)
- XXX (the one with Vin Diesel) (78)
- Ocean's Eleven (new) (83)
- The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (92)
- The Burbs (93)
- Knocked Up (98)

Looking back, the first three on this list were just not well acted. I had forgiven this point because the action is really first rate, and I enjoyed the plots, even if they are a bit far fetched. But there was no longer room for them, enjoy them though I do. National Treasure and XXX suffer from the same problem, with National Treasure losing points also for plot ridiculousness and for its putrid sequel. Is it fair to tie movies to their sequels? No, not really, but only in rare exceptions (like say taking 20+ years to make three prequels) do you get to separate them in my opinion. The final four on this list simply got bumped for better movies.

Movies That Jumped Into My Top 100
93. Se7en - For some reason, this movie had always evaded me. I finally saw it this year after my boss' fervent and frequent recommendation, and it didn't disappoint. It kept me on my toes the entire time, and if anything, I wish it had been a little longer, that we had more time to flesh out the back and forth between Kevin Spacey and Morgan Freeman and Brad Pitt.

92. Inglourious Basterds - Quentin Tarantino at his seat squirmingly finest. As it so often does in a Tarantino film, everything came together beautifully at the end. I was sort of hoping that the three daughters of the Frenchman in the opening scene would be some sort of expert killing team and would murder all of the Germans out in the car while Col. Landa was inside, chatting and drinking milk with the father. Brad Pitt was great in his role, and the only thing likely to keep from an Oscar win is the fact that he really wasn't on screen all that much throughout the movie.

91. Fletch - Another movie that had slipped through the cracks. I feel like if I have a hard time grasping how funny Chevy Chase really was in the '80's, and I at least have seen (and own) Caddyshack and Spies Like Us, then how will today's kids know? It's not going to be from his role in Community, as he is sort of one-dimensional on that show. But Fletch was teriffic, the way he always was flying by the seat of his pants yet seemed perfectly in control at the same time. If only he had been a Clippers fan instead of a Lakers fan. Oh well.

84. Zombieland - This movie is just too much fun. It may not have the most original plot (zombies want to eat us, kill them first) but it does have some great acting - in addition to the always solid Jesse Eisenberg and Woddy Harrelson, I am a big Emma Stone fan. With Superbad, The House Bunny, The Rocker and now Zombieland, she has put together a pretty solid comedy resume, and is pretty easy on the eyes to boot. Paired with the great acting was some great action, and a narrative plot device that was forgivable for its humor. And it had a great Bill Murray cameo. This is a movie I can easily see myself watching over and over.

81. Lethal Weapon - The first of the four part saga had somehow evaded my rankings. While I don't enjoy it as much as I enjoyed Part II, this is a fantastic action movie and I had to get it into the ranking, bumping it just ahead of Lethal Weapon IV.

64. Star Trek (new) - You couldn't ask for a better reboot to the once proud franchise, unless of course you are a hardcore Trekkie, and then nothing was going to satisfy you. But I think hardcore Trekkies had sort of lost the right to complain about the direction of their favorite franchise. Prior movies like Insurrection and Nemesis had been completely forgettable footnotes in the Star Trek catalogue, and it was time for some new blood. And while I have heard that some things were changed - for better or worse is debatable I suppose - I have been going back and rewatching the original movies, and I have found that some things weren't changed. For instance, the scene in the reboot where Kirk defeats/cheats the Kobayashi Maru test is just the same as Kirk describes how he beat it in The Wrath of Khan. In all, for someone like me who remembers the existence of the glory days of the shows/movies if not the details, it was a job well done by J.J. Abrams and Co.

42. Slumdog Millionaire - I am happy to say that I was in on the greatness of this movie early. I read a lot about it before it was released, and scored tickets to see a screening of it before it was released as well. Unfortunately my wife was unable to attend that screening with me, so I ended up seeing it twice in the theatre. I enjoyed it so much that I even bought the soundtrack. It is just a fantastic romantic adventure, the likes of which are rarely seen in today's Hollywood. If you don't melt when Jamal kisses Latika's scar at the end of the movie, then you must be a cyborg, because you clearly have no heart.

34. Up - This wasn't a romantic adventure the same way Slumdog was, but it was a true adventure of fulfilling one's dreams, even if it came 40-50 years later than planned. It's the kind of movie that makes you cling to hope, and as we all know, hope is a good thing. I furiously debated whether or not to bump this ahead of Wall-E and crown it my favorite Pixar movie ever, but I just couldn't do it, slotting it in just one behind the lovable robot. Maybe next year after I have had a chance to watch Up over and over on DVD, but for right now, no.

28. The Hangover - This one loses points for sheer ridiculousness - as Bill Simmons points out in the Book of Basketball, it takes a pretty big leap of faith to think they did all those things during 10 hours. And it takes a smaller leap of faith to believe they could keep a tiger concealed in their room and then their car without anyone finding out about it. I'm also getting a tiny bit tired of Ken Jeong's shtick, but it was still pretty funny. But other than that, this movie was absolutely hilarious. The Rain Man parody, the scenes with the baby, getting the wrong Doug, talking the cops out of being arrested, having the tux guy throw tuxes to them while driving, the re-tard, the wolf pack, Mike Tyson. Classic.

Biggest Movers (movies that were already in the Top 100, but moved around in it)
88 to 63 - Forgetting Sarah Marshall - This movie is permanently house on my DVR. You can pretty much pick it up at any point in the movie and get a good laugh. It keeps moving up the list (and may very well move up more next year) because even the sad, depressing parts are still a little funny. It doesn't bring you way down the way Knocked Up does.

35 to 65 - Transformers: The Movie - Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen was so bad that it knocked this movie down significantly. While the original is still pretty fun and still has Megan Fox leaning over a hood, the sequel was so god-awful that I can't imagine wanting to pop in the original as frequently anymore.

67 to 100 - Spider-Man 2 - The same thing has happened with Spidey. I just don't pop this one in anymore, and it's at least partially due to how bad part three was. I'm starting to see all kinds of stories about part four, but they are going to have to do a damn good job to take the bad taste of three out of my mouth. Spider-Man was one of my favorite comics as a kid, so that stayed the execution of part two from the list for one more year, but it may be a slow death in the end.

So that's it. A solid but unspectacular year at the movies. Nothing changed in my top 25, and only nine movies pushed their way in, as opposed to 11 the year before. Below is the full list, with the previous two year's rank in parentheses. Movies that I'm looking forward to seeing that may end up on the list next year include upcoming releases like Avatar, The Men Who Stare At Goats, Up In The Air, A Couple of Dicks, The Losers, Kick-Ass, Iron Man 2, The Expendables, as well as movies in my Netflix queue that I haven't seen, such as Sugar, Gran Torino, the Alien(s) trilogy, Hoosiers and Spirited Away.

Top 100 Movies (Ver 2.0 rank, Ver 1.0 rank)
100. Spider-Man 2 (67, 67)
99. Miracle (100, 95)
98. Harold & Kumar Go To White Castle (94, 73)
97. Superbad (99, -)
96. The Girl Next Door (97, 74)
95. Indiana Jones: Raiders of the Lost Ark (96, -)
94. Lock, Stock & Two Smoking Barrels (95, 93)
93. Se7en (-, -)
92. Inglourious Basterds (-, -)
91. Fletch (-, -)
90. Star Wars, Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (86, 81)
89. Mallrats (89, -)
88. Slap Shot (91, 84)
87. Ferris Bueller's Day Off (89, -)
86. The Bourne Supremacy (85, 88)
85. The Silence of the Lambs (84, 80)
84. Zombieland (-, -)
83. Blue Brothers (87, 97)
82. Lethal Weapon IV (82, 76)
81. Lethal Weapon (-, -)
80. 48 Hours (81, 75)
79. Saving Silverman (80, 68)
78. Indiana Jones: The Last Crusade (79, 72)
77. Running Scared (75, 56)
76. Die Hard With a Vengeance (76, 69)
75. Back To The Future 2 (62, 65)
74. Mean Girls (77, 70)
73. Monsters, Inc. (73, -)
72. Ratatouille (72, -)
71. Rounders (71, 64)
70. Thank You For Smoking (70, -)
69. Wedding Crashers (69, 58)
68. Godfather II (65, -)
67. Rocky II (64, 63)
66. Rocky (63, 62)
65. Transformers: The Movie (35, 22)
64. Star Trek (new) (-, -)
63. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (88, -)
62. Aladdin (68, 98)
61. Chronicles of Riddick: Pitch Black (61, 60)
60. Bad Boys (60, 59)
59. Lethal Weapon II (59, 57)
58. The Bourne Identity (57, 53)
57. Menace II Society (56, 52)
56. Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story (55, 48)
55. Super Troopers (53, -)
54. The Departed (52, 51)
53. Back To The Future (51, 50)
52. Total Recall (50, 49)
51. The Fugitive (49, 47
50. Coming To America (48, 46)
49. Independence Day (47, 44)
48. Toy Story (46, -)
47. Goldeneye (44, 42)
46. The Rock (43, 23)
45. Beverly Hills Cop (45, 43)
44. Stripes (42, 40)
43. Enemy of the State (41, 38)
42. Slumdog Millionaire (-, -)
41. Batman Begins (31, 14)
40. The Program (40, 37)
39. True Lies (39, 36)
38. Spaceballs (38, 35)
37. Happy Gilmore (33, 33)
36. The Incredibles (37, 41)
35. Live Free or Die Hard (32, 27)
34. Up (-, -)
33. Wall-E (34, -)
32. Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy (26, 25)
31. Ghostbusters (30, 31)
30. The Godfather (36, 34)
29. The Terminator (28, 29)
28. The Hangover (-, -)
27. Trading Places (29, 30)
26. Top Gun (27, 26)
25. Ironman (25, -)
24. Goodfellas (24, 24)
23. The Princess Bride (23, 28)
22. Billy Madison (22, 45)
21. Casino (21, 18)
20. V for Vendetta (20, 21)
19. Die Hard (19, 20)
18. Animal House (18, 19)
17. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, Extended Version (17, 16)
16. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Extended Version (16, 15)
15. Office Space (15, 13)
14. The Simpsons Movie (14, 6)
13. Scarface (13, 11)
12. Terminator 2: Judgment Day (12, 17)
11. Who Framed Roger Rabbit? (11, 12)
10. Major League (10, 10)
9. Friday (9, 9)
8. The Dark Knight (8, -)
7. Gladiator (7, 8)
6. Old School (6, 7)
5. The Shawshank Redemption (5, 5)
4. Braveheart (4, 4)
3. Star Wars, Episode VI: Return of the Jedi (3, 3)
2. Star Wars, Episode V: The Empire Strikes Back (2, 2)
1. Star Wars, Episode IV: A New Hope (1, 1)

Notes:
Nine Best Picture winners in Top 100:
- Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
- The Departed (2006)
- LOTR: Return of the King (2003)
- Gladiator (2000)
- Braveheart (1995)
- The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
- Rocky (1976)
- The Godfather, Part II (1974)
- The Godfather (1972)

22 Movies in the Top 100 of All-Time World Box Office in Top 100:
- LOTR: Return of the King (#2)
- The Dark Knight (4)
- LOTR: Fellowship of the Ring (18)
- Star Wars, Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (19)
- Independence Day (21)
- Star Wars, Episode IV: A New Hope (23)
- Spider-Man 2 (26)
- Transformers: The Movie (33)
- Up (36)
- The Incredibles (40)
- Ratatouille (43)
- Star Wars, Episode VI: Return of the Jedi (52)
- Iron Man (53)
- Star Wars, Episode V: The Empire Strikes Back (60)
- Wall-E (61)
- Monsters, Inc. (62)
- The Simpsons Movie (64)
- Terminator 2: Judgment Day (66)
- Aladdin (67)
- Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade (68)
- The Hangover (77)
- Gladiator (81)

The New England Patriots New Foundation

The New England Patriots have quietly re-established the talent base on the defensive side of the football. During the past two seasons, the Pats have drafted 11 players on defense. Many have complained that the Pats have missed a lot of impact players in the draft. However, looking at the composition of the defense this year, that's not the case at all. Last year saw three solid contributors added to the squad. One of course is stud linebacker Jerod Mayo. Second is cornerback Jonathan Wilhite, taken in the fourth round. Wilhite has played in 22 of the 23 games since being drafted, and has been a solid contributor and at times a starter. And while that may not be good enough for some fans of the team, it is instructive to look at two other Belichick cornerbacks - Asante Samuel and Ellis Hobbs:

Rookie Year Stats
- Samuel, 2003: 16 G, 1 GS, 29 tackles, 5 assists, 2 INT, 9 passes defensed
- Hobbs, 2005: 16 G, 8 GS, 35 tackles, 9 assists, 3 INT, 12 passes defensed
- Wilhite, 2008: 16 G, 4 GS, 20 tackles, 4 assists, 1 INT, 2 passes defensed

Wilhite's stats aren't completely on the same level, but they're not incredibly different either. What's most important for me is that like Samuel and Hobbs, Wilhite played in all 16 games as a rookie, something that Belichick doesn't always allow. However, while they played a lot as rookies, Samuel and Hobbs didn't become 16-game starters until their third season. Right now, Wilhite is on track to become as solid of a contributor.

Third is a guy that wasn't actually taken in the draft, but Gary Guyton was part of the 2008 rookie class as an undrafted free agent. When Mayo went down earlier this season, Guyton stepped in at middle linebacker, and the team hardly skipped a beat. Now that Mayo is back, the Mayo-Guyton combo has solved the linebacker issues of last season.

The 2009 draft has borne just as much fruit. The Pats first pick in the draft, safety Patrick Chung, has been seeing more and more playing time as the weeks have progressed, and recently intercepted his first pass. Another second round pick, cornerback Darius Butler, is already a starter. Sixth round pick Myron Pryor has started subbing in on the defensive line, and has already forced his first fumble. This week, he was praised by Belichick in the Boston Globe. Since Belichick rarely praises anyone, take that as a strong endorsement.

The question was put to me to answer were the Patriots truly struggling early on or were they purposefully baptizing these new players so that they could wreck shop in the second half. My answer is neither, but the Pats should be back to their powerhouse ways after the bye week. In Vince Wilfork, Mayo and Meriweather the Pats have their new version of Seymour, Bruschi and Harrison - a trio that will dominate each area of the defense, but this trio could be even better, because of the differences between Seymour and Wilfork. The key to being a great defense in football (and in baseball actually) is to be great from the middle out. While he spent some time in the middle, Seymour was mostly an edge rusher, while Wilfork is planted firmly in the middle. In Ty Warren, Wilfork, Meriweather, Mayo and Guyton, the Pats have five players that they either drafted or signed as undrafted free agents starting on defense, with the potential to have as many as nine with Tully Bunta-Cain, Wilhite, Butler and James Sanders/Chung. That is simply unheard of in today's NFL. And with Jarvis Green, Pryor, 2005 undrafted free agent Mike Wright and Pierre Woods as backups, the Pats D is largely homegrown at this point. Take a look at the defensive snaps played this past week, courtesy of the incomparable Mike Reiss:

ILB Jerod Mayo -- 56 of 61........................2008 draft pick
S Brandon Meriweather -- 56 of 61............2007 draft pick
S Brandon McGowan -- 56 of 61................free agent
DE/OLB Derrick Burgess -- 53 of 61...........trade
CB Leigh Bodden -- 53 of 61.......................free agent
DE/OLB Tully Banta-Cain -- 50 of 61..........2003 draft pick
CB Darius Butler -- 49 of 61........................2009 draft pick
ILB Gary Guyton -- 47 of 61.......................2008 undrafted free agent
CB Jonathan Wilhite -- 47 of 61..................2008 draft pick
S Pat Chung -- 36 of 61................................2009 draft pick
DE Ty Warren -- 27 of 61............................2003 draft pick
DL Myron Pryor -- 26 of 61........................2009 draft pick
DT Vince Wilfork -- 24 of 61.......................2004 draft pick
DL Jarvis Green -- 23 of 61........................2002 draft pick
OLB Adalius Thomas -- 18 of 61.................free agent
ILB Junior Seau -- 16 of 61.........................free agent
DL Mike Wright -- 15 of 61.........................2005 undrafted free agent
S James Sanders -- 12 of 61........................2005 draft pick
S Bret Lockett -- 5 of 61..............................waivers
CB Shawn Springs -- 2 of 61........................free agent

In summary, 13 of 20 guys who played last week were homegrown by the Pats, and they played 70% of the plays.

Supplementing them are the hallmark of a Bill Belichick team - low cost free agents. Brandon McGowan will make less than $1.3 million in base salary the next two seasons for the Pats - yet he is leading the team in tackles and his emergence has given the Patriots perhaps the deepest safety corps in the league. Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden - each under $3 million in total salary - have played well, but are starting to be phased out for the younger crew. Derrick Burgess (who was actually acquire in a trade), Junior Seau and Rob Ninkovich provide depth for the front seven. The only real black mark on the record has been Adalius Thomas, who has not played poorly (he has averaged almost six sacks in his first two years despite missing seven games to injury last season), but has also not lived up to lofty expectations. But this is why the Pats generally eschew big ticket free agents. It is hard for big ticket players to come in and meet expectations. This is why Bill Belichick builds from within, and focuses on the forgotten players in free agency.

And though this shouldn't be a surprise to Pats watchers, somehow it sneaks up on them. Instead of focusing on the positives, we New Englander's are inherently negative and skeptical. How will we replace Asante Samuel? Why did we trade Ellis Hobbs? Why did we draft such a little guy in Terrence Wheatley? Why the hell did we spend so much on Thomas? Why are we signing geriatrics to play linebacker? The results show that the Pats are doing just fine. In the five other games Baltimore has played this year, they are averaging 29.6 points. They only got 21 off the Pats. The Pats held Atlanta to a season low 10 points, but otherwise the Falcons are averaging 26.8 points a game. Even in a loss, the Pats kept the Broncos under their season average in points. Ditto with the Jets, who have scored 24 or more in four games, but only mustered 16 against the Pats. Have the last two weeks padded the Pats defensive stats? Absolutely. But the Titans put up 31 points in Week 2, and the Bucs put up 20 points on three different occasions, so it's not like they're Oakland, who has scored 20 points only once this season, and has only 26 points in their last five games.

Looking back at last year, we can see how much the defense has changed in such a short time. In 2008, the Pats were 10th in total yards allowed and eighth in points allowed, but that was mitigated by two factors - their incredibly easy schedule and the fact that they had so many aging veterans on the roster. The foundation trio of Mayo, Meriweather and Wilfork led the team in tackles, but down the list you saw Mike Vrabel (age 33, 5th in tackles), Tedy Bruschi (35, 7th), Richard Seymour (29, 8th), Deltha O'Neal (31, 10th), Rodney Harrison (36, 11th) and Thomas (31, 12th). This year, all but Thomas are gone, and Thomas has been moved from starring role to part-time player. This season, the only player over 30 in the top 10 in tackles is Springs, and as mentioned, he is already being pushed out in favor of the young guns. Before the Tampa game, Reiss tweeted that Springs was serving as the eighth defensive back.

So maybe you are having a hard time matching numbers to names in the first part of this Patriots season. But at the end of the season, the Pats will have Pro Bowlers at each level of the D with the trilogy of Wilfork up front, Mayo in the middle and Meriweather in the back. By January, guys like Butler and Guyton will be household names in New England, and Ty Warren will still be holding it down. The Pats have laid the foundation for their second dynasty with their home grown and built on the cheap defense. This time around, the Pats have spread the draft picks across 2008 and 2009, but the general theme is the same. It smells a lot like 2003 in Foxboro.

Pats Three Questions - Weeks 3/4

Before we get going, apologies for skipping last week. I spent most of the week at the ballpark watching the Rox sweep the Brewers. My bad. I'll skip the highlights and lowlights of Week 3, but I'll do the Week 3 question of the week.

Highlights - Firstly, executing in the red zone and getting touchdowns. I like me some touchdowns! Second, Proving that the Ravens offense isn't the tilt-a-whirl that people had been starting to believe that they were. Yes, they put up 103 points in the first three weeks of the season, but it was against Kansas City, San Diego and Cleveland, three of the worst defenses in the NFL. Yesterday, the Pats held them to 14 points. And while Ray Rice did break off a 50-yard run, the Pats otherwise held them to 4.1 yards a carry. And Flacco and his 5.6 yards per pass average wasn't much better, especially when compared to Brady's robust 8.1 yards per pass. In addition, the Pats forced the Ravens to do things they didn't want to do. They consistently pressured Flacco, sacking him twice and registering 10 QB hits. Another highlight was the secondary play. The Bears have to be kicking themselves for letting Brandon McGowan get away for nothing, and Brandon Meriweather turned in another Pro Bowl effort. And Gary Guyton continues to be a monster. More on him later. Injury-wise, it was good to see that big Vince Wilfork didn't miss any time leaving early last week, and it was even better to get Wes Welker back in the fold. Finally, it was good to knock two firsts off the board - Randy Moss' first touchdown catch, and the team's first interception: registered by Leigh Bodden.

Lowlights - The pass coverage from the linebackers. Pierre Woods, in particular, was burned badly on the touchdown to McGahee. In general however, the Patriots seemed to recognize that this has been a weakness, and tried to de-emphasize it by playing more defensive backs. There seemed to be several plays with Meriweather, McGowan and James Sanders in the game at the same time. Another weakness was the rushing attack in early downs. Once again, the Pats were able to convert the crucial third/fourth and shorts, but they were unable to get any consistent rhythm rushing the ball. The silver lining was that they stuck with the run, and therefore didn't exhaust Brady or show their hand heading into every play the way they had the first two weeks. Finally, as great as the forced fumble on the kickoff was, special teams was overall below average this week. Laurence Maroney dances far too much to be an effective kick returner, and Chris Hanson was awful. Two of his punts went for touch backs, and the one that landed "inside the 20" actually landed on the 16 and was a net yardage of 36 yards.

Week 3 Question of the Week: Can the Patriots develop a good running game? It sure looked promising after the Falcons game, but perhaps the Falcons just have a really poor run defense. Outside of the Falcons game, the Patriots "high" rusher has compiled 32, 46 and 25 yards. Outsider of the Atlanta game, the Pats are averaging 3.3 yards per rush. That is not the hallmark of a good running game. The Pats will certainly maintain enough of a ground threat to be a viable change of pace, but if they are going to develop a ground game that is an actual strength, they will need to get Maroney going again. The key to that will likely be playing him in the second half of games, something that has not happened for two weeks. When the Pats came out of halftime this week, they had a 10 point lead at 17-7. They had a serious chance to put the game out of reach when they got the ball to start the half. But after starting by alternating pass-run-pass-run, the Pats called six straight passes. The drive stalled at the Baltimore 45, and the Pats were forced to punt. These are the situations where the run would have taken over in years past. This year, the Pats seem to have very little confidence in the running game. I'm not willing to bury the running game yet, as Baltimore does have a very good run defense, but the Pats simply have to get Maroney going, as the other backs can only be effective in spurts.

Week 4 Question of the Week: What will the defense look when Jerod Mayo comes back? In a word, fierce. Gary Guyton has established himself as a viable middle linebacker, capable of playing every down, as he has the past two weeks, when the Pats defense has held their opponents to 10 and 14 points on defense. But he is still keeping the seat warm for Mayo. The main benefit the Pats will derive from getting Mayo back is that they will be able to rotate into any defense they want. Do you want to play 4-3 with one of Mayo/Guyton and the edge rusher combo of Bunta-Cain/Thomas/Burgess? Sure, let's do it. Do you want to play a 3-4, with Guyton and Mayo making a fearsome middle of the defense. Yes, please! And with McGowan stepping up as an able hybrid safety/linebacker, the Pats could run schemes where they play six defensive backs in Meriweather, McGowan, Sanders, Bodden, Shawn Springs, Cornerback X, Guyton and Mayo, and a three man rush, thereby blanketing the field in coverage and waiting for pressure to break through and force a sack or a bad throw. Without Mayo, the Pats D has been solid. Bodden and Springs have been great pickups, Darius Butler is showing promise in limited action, Jonathan Wilhite is holding his own, and Mike Wright is developing into the team's best pass rusher. And that is one more element Mayo's return will bring to the D - the pass rush. We saw this week that when the Pats blitzed they left themselves vulnerable to passes over the middle. Woods wasn't up to snuff. But with Mayo back, the Pats will have the freedom to blitz Guyton or Mayo from the middle, knowing that the other will be there to cover any tight ends or backs effectively over the middle. It's going to be a beautiful thing.

Pats Three Questions - Week 2

Highlights - Yes, there were some. For starters, Mike Wright's strip sack on the first play from scrimmage. Secondly, despite the problems that the Pats had with the Jets pass rush, the Pats had the ball for an equal amount of time and gained more yards than did the Jets. Another highlight, sort of like a back-handed compliment I suppose, was how Randy Moss pursued Darrelle Revis after the interception. He didn't let up, and tackled Revis before he was able to get any kind of return going. Finally, the Pats were able to effectively stop the run. Yes, the Jets gained 117 yards on the ground, but at only a 3.8 clip.

Lowlights - The number one reverse highlight has to be how the Pats responded to the Jets taking the lead. Given 9:43 at the end of the game, the Patriots of old would have easily tied the game. Instead the Pats gained 49 yards on three drives and failed to get even into Jets territory. Outside of that, Tom Brady played like the offensive line in front of him was the London Sillynannies. And unfortunately, that wasn't that far off. Also, the play-calling was once again horrendous. The Jets talked all week about bringing pressure, and then did exactly that, but somehow the Pats were unprepared. They consistently failed to disguise what they were doing on offense (or defense for that matter) and were unable to deal protect Brady, who became so skittish that he was throwing off his back foot even when he wasn't in danger of being hit.

Question of the Week - How do the Pats right the ship? Fortunately, the answers are within reach. 1) Improve the play-calling. 2) Converting in the red zone. 3) Get the secondary involved.

1) I realize that the goal of the shotgun offense is to give Brady more time to survey the field, but the downside is that everyone knows what you're going to do. The Patriots need to run a little more from under center, and they need to run a little more two tight end offense. The wide receiver depth on the team is down, especially with Welker's balky knee, so to spread the field with four receivers so frequently is not even playing to the team's strengths. Furthermore, with the defense searching for an identity, it would behoove the offense to try and play a little more ball control. Secondly, it is important not to overreact. As mentioned, the Pats had the ball longer than the Jets, and had more total yards than the Jets.

2) The main problem in the Pats first two games has not been gaining yards, but rather executing in the red zone. Stephen Gostkowski kicked two field goals from closer than 30 yards in in each game. That needs to change. It CAN change.

3) Get the secondary involved. The Pats have managed to sack the quarterback six times in the first two games, so there has been a pass rush. But it has all come from the front seven. The Pats need to be able to drop linebackers into coverage and blitz with members of the secondary. One of the hallmarks of the Rodney Harrison Pats was his ability to come with a perfectly timed blitz at just the right time. The Pats are lacking that element of surprise right now. Brandon Meriweather is performing well, and James Sanders has been trusted in the past. Leigh Bodden and Shawn Springs have made their bones as man-to-man defenders, and the fact that Darius Butler has been on the field in the fourth quarter during each of the first two games is an encouraging sign for his development. Jonathan Wilhite has shown flashes as well, though he and Brandon McGowan did get their wires crossed on the Jets touchdown yesterday. But the bottom line is that the Pats have become far too predictable on defense. In order to get feisty, to get a little unpredictable, they will need to trust the secondary a little more and get them more involved in the team defense.

Pats Three Questions - Week 1

Welcome to a new feature at Faster than a Speeding Homer. Each week, I will put up a quick post on that week's Patriots game in three parts: 1) highlights, 2) lowlights and 3) a question chosen by a friend of mine, to be determined at random each week. Keep in mind that these are thoughts mainly off the top of my head that were/will be recorded the night of or morning after the game each week.

1) Highlights - My number one highlight was the last TD throw by Brady. It was down the middle, a 20+ yard throw, and had to be in a specific location to be caught, specifically Ben Watson's back shoulder. It was a great throw that Pats fans are used to seeing Tom Brady make, but had been missing for most of the game. My number two highlight was the fumble cause by Pierre Woods (and Brandon Meriweather) and recovered by Stephen Gostkowski. Kickoff returns happen very fast, and to have so many guys come together so quickly and make that play happen speaks well of the special teams this season. In addition, it's so rare that you see a kick returner hit squarely the way Meriweather hit him. Usually, players get tripped, or pushed in the side, etc.

Other highlights include: the pass rush in the second half, Darius Butler’s play in the fourth quarter, the game opening kick return by Laurence Maroney, and the running game (minus draw plays from shotgun) on first and second down.

2) Lowlights - The number one lowlight pass coverage of the running backs and tight ends. Both of Buffalo's offensive TD's were to this group. I understand that Belichick's game plan was to take away Lee Evans and Terrell Owens, and that that game plan mostly worked. But given the relative inexperience of some of the Pats' cornerbacks, this won't be the last wide receivers on whom the Pats need to roll coverage. So it is imperative that the linebackers get better in coverage. With Jerod Mayo out for awhile, this issue will be exacerbated.

My number two lowlight was the play-calling in the running game and in short yardage situations. Far, far, far too many shotgun draws were called. Two to three years ago, these fooled people. They also fool people when you are mixing and matching your running plays and your formations. But too frequently, the Pats just lined up in the shotgun, and the running plays were predictable. Furthermore, the play-calling in short yardage was far too passive. Specifically, the first fourth and inches when Maroney got stuffed behind the line. In years past, that was a Brady QB sneak every single time. And I think fans will rightly have fears about his knee until he can get back to running QB sneaks.

Other lowlights include Gostkowski's rare missed field goal, the decision to kick the field goal when down 17-10, and the two missed two-point conversions at the end of the game. Oh, and Matt Light's continued impersonation of a matador in the first half. Thankfully, Matt (not Todd Light, Mr. Gruden) remembered he was playing football in the second half.

3) Question of the Week - What calls do you feel the refs blew? The two roughing the passer calls were tremendously poor calls that swung the game significantly in Buffalo's favor. One turned a second-and-20 on the Bills 11-yard line to a first-and-10 on the 26. They got a 15-yard pass to Jackson on the next play and they were rolling. The second call turned what would have been a second-and-20 on the Bills 36 - which would have knocked them out of field goal range - into a first-and-10 on the cusp of the red zone. The Bills scored a touchdown five plays later, when they may have done no better than a field goal. And not only were the penalties extremely meaningful in the game, they were also the wrong call. So many people have already commented on this, so there isn't much need to go into detail, but the two calls mixed unnecessary rules with poor interpretation of said rules. It was very frustrating to watch.

There it is, down and dirty. Check back in for more each week!

NFL '09 - Just In Time

Wow, did this come down to the wire. I have been making my own picks since middle school, and every year I wonder if I will fail to make them in time, or even make them at all, but the dream didn't die this year. Technically, I am already late, but that Thursday night game isn't really the start of the season. Here is how they will stack up. Read it like this:

NFL Rank. Team, record - comment

AFC East
2. New England, 13-3 - Tom Brady loves it when you doubt him. This will be Brandon Meriweather's first Pro Bowl season.
21. Miami, 6-10 - The future is still bright, but a much tougher schedule will fell the Fish in '09.
24. NY Jets, 5-11 - Mark Sanchez shows promise, but the Jets good defense will not play well enough to save the raw offense.
31. Buffalo, 3-13 - Two words - unmitigated disaster.

AFC North
4. Baltimore, 12-4 - Baltimore's three-headed RB and Joe Flacco keep improving, and the O finally starts to balance with the D.
6. Pittsburgh, 12-4 - They return so many starters, but they will lose a division tiebreaker that will cost them in the playoffs.
27. Cleveland, 5-11 - Eric Mangini made the right call running with Brady Quinn, but there is a lot of rebuilding to do here.
30. Cincinnati, 4-12 - The offense should be better this year, but it would be hard to be worse. Not buying a resurgence here.

AFC South
5. Indianapolis, 12-4 - New faces abound on offense, but as long as #18 is under center, he will make them fit.
9. Jacksonville, 11-5 - Torry Holt gives David Garrard a #1 target. They were Super Bowl faves before o-line injuries ruined '08.
12. Houston, 10-6 - They keep growing, but still fall victim to the numbers game in the tough, tough AFC.
14. Tennessee, 9-7 - Kerry Collins and Chris Johnson won't fool teams in '09. They won't be bad, but aren't good enough to be great.

AFC West
1. San Diego, 13-3 - Mix an O to rival New England's, an improved D and a division constantly in flux and you have football's best.
18. Kansas City, 8-8 - Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson wreak havoc on the D-line. Scott Pioli's reign breaks even in year one.
25. Denver, 5-11 - They will win three of their first four and two of their last three, but will lose nine straight in between.
29. Oakland, 4-12 - They will go 0-8 on the road, and at least one other assistant will have his jaw broken by "Coach" Tom Cable.

NFC East
3. NY Giants, 12-4 - The passing will be better than expected, but the run will be worse. Sweeping Philly will put them on top.
16. Washington, 8-8 - A 5-8 start will doom the season, but winning the last three will save Jim Zorn's job for another season.
17. Philadelphia, 8-8 - They will be soar to a 4-1 start, but then the meltdown pundits have predicted for years will finally occur.
20. Dallas, 7-9 - This year they open a new stadium. Next year they will have a new coach.

NFC North
7. Chicago, 11-5 - This division will be surprisingly good, and will knock a win or two off the Bears mark.
10. Green Bay, 10-6 - Three losses from weeks 13-15 - home vs. BAL, away at CHI and PIT - will ruin division hopes.
11. Minnesota, 10-6 - The patented Brett Favre Fade will be in effect - Vikes will lose last three at CAR, at CHI and home vs. NYG.
26. Detroit, 5-11 - Hope is a good thing, and Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson (and Brandon Pettigrew) brings that hope.

NFC South
8. New Orleans, 11-5 - New D coordinator Gregg Williams will be big. Pierre Thomas-Reggie Bush combo should be lethal.
15. Carolina, 9-7 - Like Tennessee, they are stuck in the middle. They're still good, but other teams passed them this offseason.
22. Atlanta, 6-10 - Too fast too soon for the Dirty Birds, and now they are counting on an aging Mike Peterson to help the D? Uh, no.
32. Tampa Bay, 2-14 - Now in a full-scale rebuild, it will be a rough year. They won't win a game outside their division.

NFC West
13. Seattle, 9-7 - Like Jacksonville, injuries ruined last season. Matt Hasselbeck to T.J. Houshmandzadeh will be fun to watch.
19. St. Louis, 7-9 - In a season without sleepers, this is as close as the league will get, but the Rams will fall short of the playoffs.
23. Arizona, 6-10 - They barely made the playoffs last year, and this year the division won't be crappy enough to propel them.
28. San Francisco, 4-12 - Except for San Fran, that is. The Niners have no clue what they're doing, and it shows.

A note on "sleepers" - every year a batch of new teams make the playoffs. Pundits are used to there being "sleeper" teams every year that make the playoffs to fill out these requirements. And I suppose Jacksonville and New Orleans loosely qualify, but both have been good in the very recent past. No, this year will be more about injuries evening out, as Jacksonville, New England and Seattle get back to their 2007 forms, and knock out a lot of potential sleepers in the process.

That's not to say there won't be that batch of new teams in the playoffs, as Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Miami, Philadelphia and Tennessee will be replaced by Chicago, Green Bay, Jacksonville, New England, New Orleans and Seattle.

AFC Playoffs
3 Baltimore beats 6 Jacksonville
4 Indianapolis beats 5 Pittsburgh

2 New England beats 3 Baltimore
4 Indianapolis beats 1 San Diego

2 New England beats 4 Indianapolis

New England avenges two of its three regular season losses (the other being Week 17 in Houston) and Tom Brady reaches his fifth Super Bowl in his first nine seasons as a starter, which is better than Joe Montana did.

NFC Playoffs
3 Chicago beats 6 Minnesota
5 Green Bay beats 4 Seattle

1 NY Giants beats 5 Green Bay
3 Chicago beats 2 New Orleans

1 NY Giants beats 3 Chicago

The year of the NFC North fizzles right at the end, as the Giants find a way to overcome and reach their second Super Bowl in three seasons.

Super Bowl XLIV
New England 24 - New York Giants 16. The story of this game will be the ability to score touchdowns. Each team will score four times, but the Patriots will score three TD's and one field goal, while the Giants will be the opposite - one TD and three FG's. Tom Brady cements himself as one of the three best quarterbacks of all-time. This will also be the sixth consecutive season in which the NFL's number one team (in this case, San Diego) doesn't win the Super Bowl.