NL All-Star Prediction Results

You National League All-Star team:

Pos	Player, Tm	Did I Have Him?
C	Geovany Soto, CHC	Yes
1B	Lance Berkman, HOU	Yes
2B	Chase Utley, PHI	Yes
SS	Hanley Ramirez, FLA	Yes
3B	Chipper Jones, ATL	Yes
OF	Ryan Braun, MIL	Yes
OF	Kosuke Fukudome, CHC	Yes
OF	Alfonso Soriano, CHC	Yes
P	Aaron Cook, COL	Yes
P	Ryan Dempster, CHC	No
P	Brad Lidge, PHI	Yes
P	Tim Lincecum, SF	Yes
P	Ben Sheets, MIL	Yes
P	Edinson Volquez, CIN	Yes
P	Brandon Webb, ARI	Yes
P	Brian Wilson, SF	No
P	Kerry Wood, CHC	Yes
C	Russell Martin, LA	No
1B	Adrian Gonzalez, SD	Yes
2B	Dan Uggla, FLA	Yes
3B	Aramis Ramirez, CHC	No
SS	Miguel Tejada, HOU	No
OF	Matt Holliday, COL	Yes
OF	Ryan Ludwick, STL	No
OF	Nate McLouth, PIT	Yes
P	Dan Haren, ARI	Yes
P	Billy Wagner, NYM	Yes
P	Carlos Zambrano, CHC	No
1B	Brian McCann, ATL	Yes
1B	Albert Pujols, STL	Yes
SS	Cristian Guzman, WAS	No

So again, I got 23 of the players, though with just 31, my percentage bumps up to 74% correct. Most of the ones I missed are not surprises. I would only count Wilson and Guzman as surprises, and mild ones at that. I didn't see Wilson as having a high enough profile, and as a result dismissed him completely. But he has been one of the best relievers in baseball by any metric though, so credit the players with picking him. As in the AL though, there is one simply ridiculous pick - Miguel Tejada. Hanley Ramirez was clearly the best player at the position, but of NL shortstops with 100 plate appearances, Tejada clocks in at eighth in VORP, behind Guzman, but also behind Jose Reyes, Rafael Furcal (he doesn't count because he's injured), J.J. Hardy, Jerry Hairston (!) and Jimmy Rollins. Rollins did miss some time due to injury, so I can see how he would be left out. And Tejada is leading NL shortstops in RBI, but I think Reyes would have been a far superior selection. Looking at the two, we see that Reyes has a better average, on-base and slugging percentage. Reyes has more doubles, more triples and more steals. Tejada's edge amounts to one homer and six RBI. Again though, it is instructive to look at how the players started. Tejada was on fire in April and Reyes started slow. Unfortunately, the players were fooled by this and went with Tejada instead of the more deserving Reyes.

But, there have been years when several selections were preposterous. That there are only one or two per team shows that the process does work fairly well within the constraints that MLB dictates for the selection process. Let's see how the voting broke out by electoral group:

Fans: the eight starters
Players: Martin, Gonzalez, Uggla, A Ramirez, Tejada, Holliday, McLouth, Ludwick, Dempster, Webb, Volquez, Lincecum, Sheets, Wood, Lidge and Wilson
Hurdle: Guzman, McCann, Pujols, Zambrano, Cook, Haren, Wagner

I'm not exactly clear as to why Hurdle got to pick seven guys to Francona's five. I understand that he gets one more player due to the fans not voting for a NL designated hitter. Perhaps this was inaccurately reported at first blush, and one of the seven reportedly selected by Hurdle was actually a players selection? We'll see...

In any event, Clint had only two teams to fill out his roster - Washington and New York. He picked one reliever and one shortstop - Guzman and Wagner. If he had picked Jon Rauch and Reyes nobody would have given it a second thought, he really couldn't go wrong there. And he acquitted himself very well with his other selections, taking guys that all obviously deserve to be there. The other decision that Hurdle has to make is who his starting DH will be. I would peg the candidates as Pujols, Holliday and Gonzalez, all of whom would be good choices.

The Final Vote has the following five guys:

- David Wright
- Pat Burrell
- Corey Hart
- Carlos Lee
- Aaron Rowand

I had both Wright and Lee on my actual team - they essentially swapped out with Zambrano and Ludwick, who I had in my Final Vote instead of being on the actual team. I did however, correctly predict that Burrell would be a Final Vote candidate. Consistently overlooked by his peers, Burrell has been a monster this year - actually for the past 18 months. As in the AL, I would expect the player from the biggest market - Wright - to take home this honor. That would bump me up to 24 of 32. Also, I believe Clint Hurdle will have to replace Soriano due to injury, which will likely be one of the four outfielders that doesn't win the Final Vote.